496 results on '"problem of induction"'
Search Results
2. Bayesian Perspectives on Mathematical Practice
- Author
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Franklin, James, Aberdein, Andrew, Section editor, and Sriraman, Bharath, editor
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- 2024
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3. Induction With and Without Natural Properties: a New Approach to the New Riddle of Induction
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Thorn, Paul D. and Schurz, Gerhard
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- 2024
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4. We'll never have a model of an AI major-general: Artificial Intelligence, command decisions, and kitsch visions of war.
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Hunter, Cameron and Bowen, Bleddyn E.
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- *
ARTIFICIAL intelligence , *WAR , *MACHINE learning , *INDUCTION (Logic) - Abstract
Military AI optimists predict future AI assisting or making command decisions. We instead argue that, at a fundamental level, these predictions are dangerously wrong. The nature of war demands decisions based on abductive logic, whilst machine learning (or 'narrow AI') relies on inductive logic. The two forms of logic are not interchangeable, and therefore AI's limited utility in command – both tactical and strategic – is not something that can be solved by more data or more computing power. Many defence and government leaders are therefore proceeding with a false view of the nature of AI and of war itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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5. Escaping the No Free Lunch Theorem: A Priori Advantages of Regret-Based Meta-Induction.
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Schurz, Gerhard and Thorn, Paul
- Subjects
- *
MATHEMATICAL induction , *A priori , *PROBABILITY theory , *FORECASTING - Abstract
A new solution strategy for the problem of induction has been developed based on a priori advantages of regret-weighted meta-induction (RW) in prediction tasks. These a priori advantages seem to contradict the no-free lunch (NFL) theorem. In this paper, the NFL challenge is dissolved by three novel results: (1) RW enjoys free lunches in the long run. (2) Yet, the NFL theorem applies to iterated prediction tasks, because the distribution underlying it assigns a zero probability to all possible worlds in which RW enjoys free lunches. (3) The a priori advantages of RW can even be demonstrated for the short run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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6. Introduction to the Special Issue.
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Thorn, Paul and Psillos, Stathis
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ONLINE education , *SYLLOGISM - Abstract
This is the introduction to the special issue "The Meta-Inductive Approach to Hume's Problem". The introduction includes introductory remarks and brief comments on each of the papers appearing in the special issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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7. In Search for Optimal Methods: New Insights About Meta-Induction.
- Author
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Schurz, Gerhard
- Subjects
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PROPHECY , *ABDUCTION , *ONLINE education , *A priori - Abstract
In this paper, the contributions to the account of meta-induction (Schurz 2019) collected in this volume are critically discussed and thereby, new insights are developed. How broad and expandable the program of meta-induction is can be learned from Ortner's contribution. New insights about the transition from the a priori justification of meta-induction to the a posteriori justification of object-induction emerge from the reflection of Shogenji's paper. How meta-induction may be applied also to religious prophecies and that their meta-inductive justification does not fail for a priori reasons but because of missing evidence for predictive success is learned from the discussion of Pitts' contribution. That meta-induction does not rely on a particular prior distribution, while the no free lunch theorem depends implicitly on a uniform prior, is the major conclusion drawn from the discussion of Wolpert's article. How the problem of induction is treated in different versions of the Bayesian account is learned from the discussion of Willliamson's paper. That meta-induction can also be employed for abduction, and that abductive theory-revision can offer meta-inductive aggregation methods is a new insight emerging from the reflection of Aliseda's contribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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8. Evidence
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Pietsch, Wolfgang, Taddeo, Mariarosaria, Editor-in-Chief, Allo, Patrick, Editorial Board Member, Baker, Lynne, Advisory Editor, Cohen, Stewart, Advisory Editor, Bogdan, Radu, Advisory Editor, David, Marian, Advisory Editor, Fischer, John, Advisory Editor, Lehrer, Keith, Advisory Editor, Meyerson, Denise, Advisory Editor, Recanati, Francois, Advisory Editor, Sainsbury, Mark, Advisory Editor, Smith, Barry, Advisory Editor, Smith, Nicholas, Advisory Editor, Zagzebski, Linda, Advisory Editor, and Pietsch, Wolfgang
- Published
- 2022
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9. Inductivism
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Pietsch, Wolfgang, Taddeo, Mariarosaria, Editor-in-Chief, Allo, Patrick, Editorial Board Member, Baker, Lynne, Advisory Editor, Cohen, Stewart, Advisory Editor, Bogdan, Radu, Advisory Editor, David, Marian, Advisory Editor, Fischer, John, Advisory Editor, Lehrer, Keith, Advisory Editor, Meyerson, Denise, Advisory Editor, Recanati, Francois, Advisory Editor, Sainsbury, Mark, Advisory Editor, Smith, Barry, Advisory Editor, Smith, Nicholas, Advisory Editor, Zagzebski, Linda, Advisory Editor, and Pietsch, Wolfgang
- Published
- 2022
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10. An Intuitive Solution to the Problem of Induction
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Andrew Dennis Bassford
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Problem of Induction ,natural kinds ,direct realism ,substantial forms ,contents of perception ,concept formation ,Philosophy. Psychology. Religion ,Philosophy (General) ,B1-5802 - Abstract
The subject of this essay is the classical problem of induction, which is sometimes attributed to David Hume and called “the Humean Problem of Induction.” Here, I examine a certain sort of Neo-Aristotelian solution to the problem, which appeals to the concept of natural kinds in its response to the inductive skeptic. This position is most notably represented by Howard Sankey and Marc Lange. The purpose of this paper is partly destructive and partly constructive. I raise two questions. The first is: Are the natural kind solutions to the problem successful? The first thesis of this paper is that they are not, and I will show how and why they fail. And the second question I raise here is: Is there nonetheless some alternative Neo-Aristotelian solution to the problem which is successful and can overcome the shortcomings endemic to the Sankey-Lange account? The second thesis is that there is, and I’ll attempt to sketch one. My stance here may be summarized by saying that, while I agree with Sankey and Lange that the problem of induction can be adequately resolved, and while I am on the whole sympathetic with the Aristotelian spirit of their account(s), I am, for all that, dissatisfied with the letter of them. Nothing short of a more thoroughgoing Aristotelianism about the epistemology of induction will do.
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- 2022
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11. Logical empiricism in Turkish exile: Hans Reichenbach’s research and teaching activities at Istanbul University (1933–1938)
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Roure, Pascale
- Abstract
In this article, I seek to shed new light on a lesser-known stage of the development of Hans Reichenbach’s thought, namely his research, output and teaching activities at Istanbul University (1933–1938). I argue that the experience of Turkish exile was decisive in the elaboration of Reichenbach’s probability theory of meaning and knowledge. His work Experience and Prediction, produced while in Istanbul, should therefore be put in its Turkish context of elaboration and reception. To this end, I will take into consideration not only Reichenbach’s efforts to popularize and extend the Berlin Group’s program of scientific philosophy in Turkey and throughout Europe in the 1930s, but also the forgotten work of Reichenbach’s students—most of them women—at Istanbul University. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2022
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12. Necessarily the Old Riddle Necessary Connections and the Problem of Induction.
- Author
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Backmann, Marius
- Subjects
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PROBLEM solving , *ESSENTIALISM (Philosophy) , *INDUCTION (Logic) , *REASONING , *RIDDLES , *INFERENCE (Logic) , *PHYSICAL laws - Abstract
In this paper, I will discuss accounts to solve the problem of induction by introducing necessary connections. The basic idea is this: if we know that there are necessary connections between properties F and G such that F-ness necessarily brings about G-ness, then we are justified to infer that all, including future or unobserved, Fs will beGs. To solve the problem of induction with ontology has been proposed by David Armstrong and Brian Ellis. In this paper, I will argue that these attempts to solve the problem of induction fail. Necessary connections fail to reliably imply the respective regularities for two main reasons: Firstly, according to an argument originally presented by Helen Beebee, the respective necessary connections might be time-limited, and hence do not warrant inferences about future cases. As I will discuss, arguments against the possibility or explanatory power of time-limited necessary connections fail. Secondly, even time-unlimited necessary connections do not entail strict or non-strict regularities, and nor do they allow inferences about individual cases, which is an important function of inductive reasoning. Moreover, the proposed solution to the problem of induction would only apply to a tiny minority of inductive inferences. I argue that most inductive inferences are not easily reducible to the proposed inference pattern, as the vast majority of everyday inductive inferences do not involve necessary connections between fundamental physical properties or essences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2022
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13. Causal Inference in Population Health Informatics
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Dammann, Olaf, Smart, Benjamin, Dammann, Olaf, and Smart, Benjamin
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- 2019
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14. Uma alternativa contrafactual ao paradoxo 'grue'.
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ARRUDA, Renata
- Abstract
Copyright of Artefactos: Revista de Estudios Sobre La Ciencia Y La Tecnologia is the property of Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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- 2022
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15. Nyāya's Response to Skepticism.
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Chakrabarti, Kisor Kumar
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SKEPTICISM ,METAPHYSICS ,THEORY of knowledge ,ARGUMENT ,LOGIC - Abstract
The classical Indian school called Nyāya (literally "logic" or "right reasoning"), is arguably the leading anti-skeptical tradition within all of Indian philosophy. Defending a realist metaphysics and an epistemology of "knowledge sources" (pramāṇa), its responses to skepticism are often appropriated by other schools of thought. This paper examines its responses to skeptical arguments from dreams, from "the three times," from justificatory regress, and over the problem of induction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2022
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16. Three Skepticisms in Cārvāka Epistemology: The Problem of Induction, Purandara's Fallibilism, and Jayarāśi's Skepticism about Philosophy.
- Author
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Mills, Ethan
- Subjects
SKEPTICISM ,THEORY of knowledge ,SPECULATION - Abstract
The classical Indian Cārvāka ("Materialist") tradition contains three branches with regard to the means of knowledge (pramāṇas). First, the standard Cārvākas accept a single means of knowledge, perception, supporting this view with a critique of the reliability and coherence of inference (anumāna). Second, the "more educated" Cārvākas as well as Purandara endorse a form of inference limited to empirical matters. Third, radical skeptical Cārvākas like Jayarāśi attempt to undermine all accounts or technical definitions of the means of knowledge (even perception) in order to enjoy a life free from philosophical and religious speculation. These branches respectively present something akin to David Hume's problem of induction, endorse a fallibilistic, mitigated skepticism, and embody a thoroughgoing skepticism about philosophy itself. While all three branches are skeptics about religious matters, each branch exemplifies a different variety of epistemological skepticism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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17. Reichenbach's best alternative account to the problem of induction.
- Author
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Schurz, Gerhard
- Subjects
PROBABILITY theory ,MATHEMATICAL induction - Abstract
In this paper Reichenbach's best alternative account (BAA) to induction is examined. In the first section, three versions of the BAA are distinguished that have been discussed in the literature. The major objections against all three versions are presented. In the second section it is shown by a text analysis that Reichenbach (The theory of probability, University of California Press, California, 1949) argues for all three versions of the BAA and does not sufficiently distinguish between them. In the third section it is explained how Reichenbach's third version of the BAA can be transformed into a provable optimality theorem within the account of meta-induction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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18. The no-free-lunch theorems of supervised learning.
- Author
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Sterkenburg, Tom F. and Grünwald, Peter D.
- Subjects
MACHINE learning ,ALGORITHMS - Abstract
The no-free-lunch theorems promote a skeptical conclusion that all possible machine learning algorithms equally lack justification. But how could this leave room for a learning theory, that shows that some algorithms are better than others? Drawing parallels to the philosophy of induction, we point out that the no-free-lunch results presuppose a conception of learning algorithms as purely data-driven. On this conception, every algorithm must have an inherent inductive bias, that wants justification. We argue that many standard learning algorithms should rather be understood as model-dependent: in each application they also require for input a model, representing a bias. Generic algorithms themselves, they can be given a model-relative justification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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19. Humeanisms: metaphysical and epistemological.
- Author
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Segal, Aaron
- Subjects
METAPHYSICS - Abstract
Classic inductive skepticism–the epistemological claim that we have no good reason to believe that the unobserved resembles the observed–is plausibly everyone's lot, whether or not they embrace Hume's metaphysical claim that distinct existents are "entirely loose and separate". But contemporary advocates of a Humean metaphysic accept a metaphysical claim stronger than Hume's own. I argue that their view plausibly gives rise to a radical inductive skepticism–according to which we are downright irrational in believing as we do about the unobserved–that we don't otherwise have reason to accept. The Metaphysical Neo-Humean is in an epistemological quagmire all her own. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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20. All Ravens can be Black, After All.
- Author
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Holm, Ruurik
- Subjects
INDUCTION (Logic) ,RAVENS ,CORVUS corax ,PHILOSOPHY of science ,GENERALIZATION - Abstract
This article discusses the problem of non-zero probabilities for non-tautologous universal generalizations in Rudolf Carnap's inductive logic (1950, 1952) when the domain of discourse is infinite. A solution is provided for a generalization of the form "all Xs are Ys", for example "all ravens all black". The solution is based on assuming that a significant part of the domain consists of non-Xs. This assumption can often be justified as a kind of ceteris paribus principle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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21. Conventionalism
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Boland, Lawrence A. and Macmillan Publishers Ltd
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- 2018
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22. Popperovo riešenie štyroch problémov indukcie.
- Author
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Karaba, Miroslav
- Subjects
PROBLEM solving ,CHILDREN'S books ,REALISM ,CRITICS - Abstract
In the first chapter of his book Realism and the Aim of Science, Karl Popper establishes a close connection between the problem of induction and corroboration. In doing so, he formulates a family of four problems of induction. The presented paper after short insight to some Popper's methodological rules analyzes these four problems of induction, namely how can we distinguish between good and bad theories; the problem of rational belief; the problem of tomorrow; and the problem of regularities. Although Popper was convinced that he had solved the problem of induction completely logically, methodically as well as epistemologically, and a metaphysical solution is not necessary, we tried to show that neither did he solve the problem as he claims, nor he implicitly use a principle of induction, as some of his critics claims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
23. A Priori Advantages of Meta-Induction and the No Free Lunch Theorem: A Contradiction?
- Author
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Schurz, Gerhard, Thorn, Paul, Hutchison, David, Series editor, Kanade, Takeo, Series editor, Kittler, Josef, Series editor, Kleinberg, Jon M., Series editor, Mattern, Friedemann, Series editor, Mitchell, John C., Series editor, Naor, Moni, Series editor, Pandu Rangan, C., Series editor, Steffen, Bernhard, Series editor, Terzopoulos, Demetri, Series editor, Tygar, Doug, Series editor, Weikum, Gerhard, Series editor, Kern-Isberner, Gabriele, editor, Fürnkranz, Johannes, editor, and Thimm, Matthias, editor
- Published
- 2017
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24. Mises and the Problem of Induction
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Linsbichler, Alexander and Linsbichler, Alexander
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- 2017
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25. A Classification Scheme for Epistemological Positions
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Linsbichler, Alexander and Linsbichler, Alexander
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- 2017
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26. Epistemic benefits of the material theory of induction.
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de Grefte, Job
- Subjects
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INDUCTION (Logic) , *THEORY of knowledge - Abstract
C. D. Broad famously labelled the problem of providing our inductive practices with a proper justification "the scandal of philosophy" (Broad, 1952). Recently, John Norton has provided a dissolution of this problem (2014). According to Norton, inductive inference is grounded in particular facts obtaining within particular domains (J. Norton, 2003b, 2010, 2014). Because the material theory does not involve a universal schema of induction, Norton claims it dissolves the problem of induction (which implies that such universal schemas cannot be justified). In this paper, I critically evaluate Norton's dissolution. In particular, I argue that the problem of induction is an epistemological problem, that Norton's material theory entails an externalist epistemology, and that it is a common feature of such epistemologies that they dissolve the problem of induction. The upshot is that the material theory is not unique in its ability to reap the specifically epistemic benefits of dissolving the problem of induction, and thus that the epistemic advantages of the material theory over extant alternatives in this regard are fewer than it may appear at first sight. • Inductive logic influences inductive epistemology. • Material theory leads to externalist epistemology. • Externalist epistemology generally dissolves problem of induction. • Epistemic benefits of the material theory of induction unclear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
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27. The Impact of Meta-Induction: From Skepticism to Optimality
- Author
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Gerhard Schurz
- Subjects
problem of induction ,meta-induction ,optimality justification ,Logic ,BC1-199 ,Philosophy (General) ,B1-5802 - Abstract
In the first section, five major attempts to solve the problem of induction and their failures are discussed. In the second section, an account of meta-induction is introduced. It offers a novel solution to the problem of induction, based on mathematical theorems about the predictive optimality of attractivity-weighted meta-induction. In the third section, how the a priori justification of meta-induction provides a non-circular a posteriori justification of object-induction, based on its superior track record, is explained. In the fourth section, four important extensions and refinements of the method of meta-induction are presented. The final section, summarizes the major impacts of the program of meta-induction for epistemology, the philosophy of science and cognitive science.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
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28. Aim-Oriented Empiricism and the Metaphysics of Science.
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Maxwell, Nicholas
- Subjects
METAPHYSICS ,PHILOSOPHY of science ,LOGICAL positivism ,PHILOSOPHY of physics ,EMPIRICISM - Abstract
Over 40 years ago, I put forward a philosophy of science based on the argument that physics, in only ever accepting unified theories, thereby makes a substantial metaphysical presupposition about the universe, to the effect that it possesses an underlying unity. I argued that a new conception of scientific method is required to subject this problematic presupposition to critical attention so that it may be improved as science proceeds. This view has implications for the study of the metaphysics of science. The view has however been ignored by recent contributions to the field. Broader implications of the view are indicated. Finally, reasons for the neglect of the view are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
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29. New solutions to a multi-objective benchmark problem of induction heating: an application of computational biogeography and evolutionary algorithms
- Author
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Elisabetta Sieni, M. E. Mognaschi, Fabrizio Dughiero, Michele Forzan, and P. Di Barba
- Subjects
010302 applied physics ,Mathematical optimization ,Induction heating ,Computer science ,020208 electrical & electronic engineering ,General Engineering ,Evolutionary algorithm ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,Multi-objective optimization ,0103 physical sciences ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Benchmark (computing) ,Problem of induction - Published
- 2023
30. PARADOX HAVRANŮ JAKO ONTOLOGICKÝ PROBLÉM.
- Author
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KOCOUREK, DAVID
- Subjects
REALISM ,NATURAL law ,PARADOX ,POSSIBILITY - Abstract
The text focuses on the so called "paradox of ravens" formulated in the 1940s by C. G. Hempel, which challenges the possibility of confirming general hypotheses by observation of particular instances of these hypotheses. After a brief presentation of the paradox and some of the possible solutions of the paradox based on the works of C. G. Hempel, K. R. Popper and W. V. O. Quine, the author presents his own analysis of the paradox that is based on understanding hypotheses challenged by the paradox not as describing general natural laws, but as concerning merely actual instances of such hypotheses. The author claims that on this interpretation of the paradox it is possible to avoid the problematic conclusion if we abandon ontological position known as "metaphysical realism", because refusing this position will disqualify the terms like "non-black" or "non-raven" from being applicable in the process of confirmation - and without these terms the paradox cannot even arise in the first place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
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31. Kant Walks Meillassoux: Finitude and Correlationism
- Author
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Robin, E. J.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
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32. Kritické zhodnocení Popperova řešení problému indukce
- Author
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Ondřej Sloup
- Subjects
Karl Popper ,critical rationalism ,problem of induction ,corroboration ,rational prediction ,Anthropology ,GN1-890 - Abstract
Is there any kind of justification fora belief that the future will be largely like the past? In the eighteenth century David Hume formulatedthe problem of induction in a similar spirit, andhis version is now conventional. Even two hundred and fifty years after Hume’s death, the ef-fort to justify inductive inferences still preoccupiesphilosophers. Sir Karl Popper believed that he hadsuccessfully solved this fundamental philosophicalproblem. The present article introduces the problematic situation formulated by David Hume, followed by Popper’s original solution to the problem. Along with that, relevant criticism from John Worall and Wes Salmon will be presented. It concentrates on Popper’s rejection of induction and therelated inability to implement any prediction aboutthe future within critical rationalism. The validityor failure of Popper’s solution is discussed towardsthe end of the article, together with a reconsideration of the current state of the debate. The lastpart of the study is devoted to the author’s proposal, which should be able to stand up againstanti-Popperian objections while remaining withinthe boundaries of critical-rationalist methodology.
- Published
- 2015
33. Reviewing the logic of social scientific claims
- Author
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Yiyi Tan and Stephen Gorard
- Subjects
Judgement ,Statistical inference ,Observational study ,Problem of induction ,Causation ,Psychology ,Research findings ,Epistemology - Abstract
This paper considers three different claims to knowledge, namely, “fully descriptive”, “generally descriptive” and causal claims. These are all common in social science, and each type of claim requires more assumptions than the previous one. After discussing their methodological and logical foundations, this paper describes some of the limitations in the nature of these three claims. Fully descriptive claims suffer from non-random errors and inaccuracies in observations, and can be queried in terms of utility. Generally, in addition to observational errors, descriptive can be questioned because of the long-standing problem of induction. Even the notion of falsification might not be able to help with this. Finally, causal claims are the most problematic of the three. While widely assumed, causation cannot be observed directly. The paper combines and develops three models of what causation might be, and discusses their implications for causal claims. It points out that so far our belief in causation is still a kind of religious one, and that neither theory nor inferential statistics can help in proving or observing its existence. Finally, the paper provides some suggestions for avoiding being misled by false knowledge and reporting our research findings with tentative care and judgement.
- Published
- 2021
34. We'll never have a model of an AI major-general: Artificial Intelligence, command decisions, and kitsch visions of war.
- Author
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Hunter C and Bowen BE
- Abstract
Military AI optimists predict future AI assisting or making command decisions. We instead argue that, at a fundamental level, these predictions are dangerously wrong. The nature of war demands decisions based on abductive logic, whilst machine learning (or 'narrow AI') relies on inductive logic. The two forms of logic are not interchangeable, and therefore AI's limited utility in command - both tactical and strategic - is not something that can be solved by more data or more computing power. Many defence and government leaders are therefore proceeding with a false view of the nature of AI and of war itself., Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s)., (© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.)
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. Induction by Direct Inference Meets the Goodman Problem.
- Author
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THORN, PAUL D.
- Subjects
GOODMAN'S paradox ,PROBABILITY theory ,MATHEMATICAL induction ,JUSTIFICATION (Ethics) ,MATHEMATICS theorems - Abstract
I here aim to show that a particular approach to the problem of induction, which I will call "induction by direct inference", comfortably handles Goodman's problem of induction. I begin the article by describing induction by direct inference. After introducing induction by direct inference, I briefly introduce the Goodman problem, and explain why it is, prima facie, an obstacle to the proposed approach. I then show how one may address the Goodman problem, assuming one adopts induction by direct inference as an approach to the problem of induction. In particular, I show that a relatively standard treatment of what some have called the "Reference Class Problem" addresses the Goodman Problem. Indeed, plausible and relatively standard principles of direct inference yield the conclusion that the Goodman inference (involving the grue predicate) is defeated, so it is unnecessary to invoke considerations of 'projectibility' in order to address the Goodman problem. I conclude the article by discussing the generality of the proposed approach, in dealing with variants of Goodman's example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
36. Metalogical Remarks on Induction
- Author
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Jan Woleński
- Subjects
Philosophy of science ,Computer science ,05 social sciences ,Inference ,06 humanities and the arts ,0603 philosophy, ethics and religion ,Degree (music) ,050105 experimental psychology ,Epistemology ,Philosophy ,Mathematics (miscellaneous) ,060302 philosophy ,Ontology ,0501 psychology and cognitive sciences ,Problem of induction ,Relation (history of concept) ,Theory of justification ,Inductivism - Abstract
The problem of induction belongs to the most controversial issues in philosophy of science. If induction is understood widely, it covers every fallible inference, that is, such that its conclusion is not logically entailed by its premises. This paper analyses so-called reductive induction, that is, reasoning in which premises follow from the conclusion, but the reverse relation does not hold. Two issues are taken into account, namely the definition of reductive inference and its justification. The analysis proposed in the paper employs metalogical tools. The author agrees with the view that a quantitative account of degree of confirmation for universal theories via logical probability is problematic. However, prospect for a qualitative approach look as more promising. Using the construction of maximally consistent sets allows to distinguish good and worthless induction as well as shows how to understand induction in a semantic way. A closer analysis of deductivism in the theory of justification shows that it is a hidden inductivism.
- Published
- 2021
37. Reichenbach's best alternative account to the problem of induction
- Author
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Gerhard Schurz
- Subjects
Philosophy of science ,Philosophy ,05 social sciences ,General Social Sciences ,Metaphysics ,050905 science studies ,050105 experimental psychology ,Philosophy of language ,Section (archaeology) ,0501 psychology and cognitive sciences ,Problem of induction ,0509 other social sciences ,Mathematical economics - Abstract
In this paper Reichenbach's best alternative account (BAA) to induction is examined. In the first section, three versions of the BAA are distinguished that have been discussed in the literature. The major objections against all three versions are presented. In the second section it is shown by a text analysis that Reichenbach (The theory of probability, University of California Press, California, 1949) argues for all three versions of the BAA and does not sufficiently distinguish between them. In the third section it is explained how Reichenbach's third version of the BAA can be transformed into a provable optimality theorem within the account of meta-induction.
- Published
- 2021
38. How Not to Know the Principle of Induction
- Author
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Howard Sankey
- Subjects
Philosophy ,Interpretation (philosophy) ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Mathematical induction ,A priori and a posteriori ,Ambiguity ,Problem of induction ,media_common ,Skepticism ,Epistemology - Abstract
In The Problems of Philosophy, Bertrand Russell presents a justification of induction based on a principle he refers to as “the principle of induction.” Owing to the ambiguity of the notion of probability, the principle of induction may be interpreted in two different ways. If interpreted in terms of the subjective interpretation of probability, the principle of induction may be known a priori to be true. But it is unclear how this should give us any confidence in our use of induction, since induction is applied to the external world outside our minds. If the principle is interpreted in light of the objective interpretation of induction, it cannot be known to be true a priori, since it applies to frequencies that occur in the world outside the mind, and these cannot be known without recourse to experience. Russell’s principle of induction therefore fails to provide a satisfactory justification of induction.
- Published
- 2021
39. Kant Walks Meillassoux: Finitude and Correlationism
- Author
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E. J. Robin
- Subjects
Philosophy ,Novelty ,Criticism ,Problem of induction ,Modern philosophy ,Critical philosophy ,Connection (mathematics) ,Epistemology - Abstract
This paper analyses Quentin Meillassoux’s criticism of Kantian philosophy. The objective of the paper is to delineate the connection Meillassoux asserts between the problem of induction and Kant’s account of finitude. After examining Meillassoux’s elucidations on the connection between the two, I argue that Meillassoux’s characterization of Kantian philosophy as ‘weak correlationism’ is not only inaccurate but also undermines the novelty of Kantian philosophy, especially Kant’s (critical) response to the problem of induction. The paper concludes with the claim that Meillassoux’s criticism of modern philosophy, especially Kantian critical philosophy, does not convince us to abandon the problem of finitude but points to the need for a more accurate understanding of finitude.
- Published
- 2021
40. A New Interpretation of the Problem of Induction in Hume’s Philosophy
- Author
-
Byoungjae Kim
- Subjects
business.industry ,Interpretation (philosophy) ,Medicine ,Problem of induction ,business ,Epistemology - Published
- 2021
41. The Problem of Induction in the Context of Antithesis 'Psychologism - Antipsychologismˮ
- Author
-
Nina A. Khodikova
- Subjects
Antithesis ,Philosophy ,Context (language use) ,Problem of induction ,Psychologism ,Epistemology - Abstract
The article examines the problem of induction posed by D. Hume and the connection of possible approaches to its solution with the adoption of psychological or antipsycholistic approaches in logic and epistemology. It demonstrates that a positive solution to the problem of induction is associated with the adoption of psychological attitudes and, apparently, is not allowed in the antipsychological approach on the example of D.S. Mill and K. Popper. The article affirms the thesis that psychologism in its modern forms (metapsychologism, mild psychologism) presupposes various ways in which the problem of induction can be positively solved.
- Published
- 2021
42. From Hume to Wuhan: An Epistemological Journey on the Problem of Induction in COVID-19 Machine Learning Models and its Impact Upon Medical Research
- Author
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Carlos Vega
- Subjects
General Computer Science ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Computer science ,Biomedical Engineering ,Science - general ,Clinical settings ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,Data modeling ,Biomedical imaging ,computational systems biology ,X-rays ,Mainstream ,General Materials Science ,philosophical considerations ,Aside ,business.industry ,Modelling biological systems ,General Engineering ,Medical research ,TK1-9971 ,machine learning ,Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering ,Problem of induction ,Artificial intelligence ,business ,computer - Abstract
Advances in computer science have transformed the way artificial intelligence is employed in academia, with Machine Learning (ML) methods easily available to researchers from diverse areas thanks to intuitive frameworks that yield extraordinary results. Notwithstanding, current trends in the mainstream ML community tend to emphasise wins over knowledge, putting the scientific method aside, and focusing on maximising metrics of interest. Methodological flaws lead to poor justification of method choice, which in turn leads to disregard the limitations of the methods employed, ultimately putting at risk the translation of solutions into real-world clinical settings. This work exemplifies the impact of the problem of induction in medical research, studying the methodological issues of recent solutions for computer-aided diagnosis of COVID-19 from chest X-Ray images.
- Published
- 2021
43. Hume and reliabilism
- Author
-
Hsueh Qu
- Subjects
Generality ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Philosophy ,05 social sciences ,Passions ,Phenomenal conservatism ,Context (language use) ,06 humanities and the arts ,General Medicine ,0603 philosophy, ethics and religion ,050105 experimental psychology ,Epistemology ,060302 philosophy ,0501 psychology and cognitive sciences ,Reliabilism ,Problem of induction ,Causation ,Skepticism ,media_common - Abstract
Hume's epistemological legacy is often perceived as a predominantly negative sceptical one. His infamous problem of induction continues to perplex philosophers to this day, and many of his sceptical worries maintain their interest in contemporary eyes (e.g. with regard to reason, the senses, substance, causation). Yet Hume's positive epistemological contributions also hold significance for philosophy in this day and age. In this paper, I aim to situate Hume's epistemology in a more contemporary context, particularly with regard to the theme of reliabilism that runs throughout this epistemology. This will take the shape of examining correspondences and contrasts between Hume's epistemologies in the Treatise and Enquiry and reliabilism, as well as an examination of how Hume's framework might handle some major challenges for reliabilist epistemologies. In particular, I argue that that while Hume is tempted to an epistemology that is intimately tied to truth in the Treatise, he backs away when confronted with the excesses of scepticism in the conclusion of Book 1, and winds up with an epistemology most similar to the contemporary epistemological frameworks of dogmatism and phenomenal conservatism. Yet, largely because of his reliance on the passions (a respect in which he diverges from these two contemporary frameworks), the epistemology of the Treatise remains crucially dissociated from truth. Meanwhile, in the first Enquiry, he proceeds to develop a two-tiered epistemological framework that first accords all our justification with default authority, and then founds all-things-considered epistemic justification on our evidence for the reliability of our faculties. The first tier most resembles the contemporary epistemological framework of conservatism, while the second tier most closely resembles approved-list reliabilism. In this, a clear reliabilist thread runs through the epistemology of the Enquiry. I will also argue that although Hume did not appear to fully appreciate one of the most significant challenges for reliabilism-that is, the generality problem-his philosophical framework nevertheless contains the beginnings of a response to it.
- Published
- 2021
44. Science, Form, and the Problem of Induction in British Romanticism by Dahlia Porter
- Author
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Noah Heringman
- Subjects
Cultural Studies ,Literature ,Dahlia ,biology ,business.industry ,General Arts and Humanities ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Art ,Problem of induction ,Romanticism ,business ,biology.organism_classification ,media_common - Published
- 2021
45. Falsificationism and the Pragmatic Problem of Induction
- Author
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Danny Frederick
- Subjects
pragmatic problem of induction ,Conjecture ,falsification ,karl popper ,conjecture ,lcsh:Philosophy (General) ,Philosophy ,Critical rationalism ,Karl popper ,Epistemology ,rational action ,Problem of induction ,lcsh:B1-5802 ,induction - Abstract
I explain how Karl Popper resolved the problem of induction but not the pragmatic problem of induction. I show that Popper's proposed solution to the pragmatic problem of induction is inconsistent with his solution to the problem of induction. I explain how Popper’s falsificationist epistemology can solve the pragmatic problem of induction in the same negative way that it solves the problem of induction.
- Published
- 2020
46. A tale of two Nortons
- Author
-
Patrick Skeels
- Subjects
History ,Philosophy of science ,History and Philosophy of Science ,Philosophy ,Problem of induction ,Protein Binding ,Transcription Factors ,Epistemology - Abstract
This paper considers Norton’s Material Theory of Induction. The material theory aims inter alia to neutralize Hume’s Problem of Induction. The purpose of the paper is to evaluate the material theory's capacity to achieve this end. After pulling apart two versions of the theory, I argue that neither version satisfactorily neutralizes the problem.
- Published
- 2020
47. Theory choice, non-epistemic values, and machine learning
- Author
-
Ravit Dotan
- Subjects
business.industry ,05 social sciences ,No free lunch theorem ,General Social Sciences ,Theory choice ,06 humanities and the arts ,0603 philosophy, ethics and religion ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,050105 experimental psychology ,Epistemology ,Philosophy of language ,Philosophy ,Argument ,060302 philosophy ,Economics ,No free lunch in search and optimization ,Condensed Matter::Strongly Correlated Electrons ,0501 psychology and cognitive sciences ,Epistemic virtue ,Problem of induction ,Artificial intelligence ,business ,computer ,Underdetermination - Abstract
I use a theorem from machine learning, called the “No Free Lunch” theorem (NFL) to support the claim that non-epistemic values are essential to theory choice. I argue that NFL entails that predictive accuracy is insufficient to favor a given theory over others, and that NFL challenges our ability to give a purely epistemic justification for using other traditional epistemic virtues in theory choice. In addition, I argue that the natural way to overcome NFL’s challenge is to use non-epistemic values. If my argument holds, non-epistemic values are entangled in theory choice regardless of human limitations and regardless of the subject matter. Thereby, my argument overcomes objections to the main lines of argument revealing the role of values in theory choice. At the end of the paper, I argue that, contrary to common conception, the epistemic challenge arising from NFL is distinct from Hume’s problem of induction and other forms of underdetermination.
- Published
- 2020
48. The Epistemological (Not Reproducibility) Crisis
- Author
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John Park
- Subjects
business.industry ,Scientific reasoning ,True knowledge ,Inductive reasoning ,Brief Opinion ,030218 nuclear medicine & medical imaging ,Epistemology ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Oncology ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Medicine ,Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and imaging ,Problem of induction ,Null hypothesis ,business ,Medical literature - Abstract
The current reproducibility crisis is fundamentally a crisis of knowledge, thus in reality it is an epistemological crisis. The current reigning paradigm of null hypothesis testing using a P value of
- Published
- 2020
49. On Peirce’s 1878 article ‘The probability of induction’: a conceptualistic appraisal
- Author
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G. A. Kyriazis
- Subjects
Philosophy of science ,Conceptualism ,Philosophy ,Interpretation (philosophy) ,Subject (philosophy) ,Proposition ,law.invention ,Epistemology ,Mathematics (miscellaneous) ,History and Philosophy of Science ,law ,Venn diagram ,Problem of induction ,Impossibility - Abstract
Charles Sanders Peirce wrote the article ‘The probability of induction’ in 1878. It was the fourth article of the series ‘Illustrations of the Logic of Science’ which comprised a total of six articles. According to Peirce, to get a clear idea of the conception of probability, one has ‘to consider what real and sensible difference there is between one degree of probability and another.’ He endorsed what John Venn had called the ‘materialistic view’ of the subject, namely that probability is the proportion of times in which an occurrence of one kind is accompanied by an occurrence of another kind. On the other hand, Peirce recognized the existence of a different interpretation of probability, which was termed by Venn the ‘conceptualistic view,’ namely the degree of belief that ought to be attached to a proposition. Peirce’s intent on writing this article seems to be to inquire about the claims of the conceptualists concerning the problem of induction. After reasoning on some examples, he concluded on the impossibility of assigning probability for induction. We show here that the arguments advanced in his article are not sufficient to support such conclusion. Peirce’s thoughts on the probability of induction surely may have influenced statisticians and research scientists of the twentieth century in shaping data analysis.
- Published
- 2020
50. An Analysis of the Falsification Criterion of Karl Popper: A Critical Review
- Author
-
Suddhachit Mitra
- Subjects
Operationalization ,Demarcation problem ,Philosophy ,Falsifiability ,Uniformitarianism ,Problem of induction ,Karl popper ,Scientific theory ,Epistemology ,Theme (narrative) - Abstract
Karl Popper identified ‘falsifiability’ as the criterion in demarcating science from non-science. The method of induction, which uses the (debated) principle of uniformity of nature, was rejected by Popper. He instead suggested that a scientific theory cannot be ‘verifiable’ but only ‘falsifiable’; one counter-example to the claims made by the theory would falsify it. The paper conducts a survey of the extant literature to understand the concept, the methodology as suggested by Popper to operationalize the concept, and possible limitations, both conceptual and methodological. The extant literature points out inherent ambiguities in the Popperian concept of falsifiabilty. One recurring theme is that Popper, the deductivist, uses the much critiqued inductivistic method among his methodological suite.
- Published
- 2020
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