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In this paper we analyse the effectiveness of demand- and supply-side fiscal policies in the small open economy of Slovenia. Simulating the SLOPOL10 model, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we analyse the effectiveness of various categories of public spending and taxes during the period 2020 to 2030, assuming that no crisis occurs. Our simulations show that those public spending measures that entail both demand- and supply-side effects are more effective at stimulating real GDP and increasing employment than pure demand-side measures. This is due to the fact that supply-side measures also increase potential and not only actual GDP. Measures which foster research and development and those which improve the education level of the labour force are particularly effective in this respect. Employment can also be stimulated effectively by cutting the income tax rate and the social security contribution rate, i.e. by reducing the tax wedge on labour income, which positively affects Slovenia's international competitiveness. Successful stabilisation policies should thus contain a supply-side component in addition to a demand-side component. We also provide a first simulation of potential effects of the Covid-19 crisis on the Slovenian economy, which is modelled as a combined demand and supply shock.

Belgija je gospodarsko bolj razvita država kot Slovenija. Značilnosti slovenske in belgijske fiskalne politike dobro pojasnjujejo nižjo raven njunega življenjskega standarda v primerjavi s Švedsko. Delež bruto vladnih investicij v % BDP obeh držav je nizek, po razpletu zadnje krize je še dodatno upadel. Nadpovprečno visoki proračunski izdatki za socialna nadomestila so med veliko recesijo v obeh državah narasli. Obe državi generirata največji obseg proračunskih prihodkov iz naslova davkov na dohodek in socialnih prispevkov. Slovenija je med zadnjo krizo prekinila s procesom razvojnega dohitevanja recesijo realnega sektorja je poglobila finančna kriza. Proračunski primanjkljaj je tudi zaradi sanacije slovenskega bančnega sistema med krizo narasel bolj kot v Belgiji, slovenski javni dolg je strmo narasel, zaradi česar so občutno narasli tudi stroški njegovega servisiranja. Belgija pa je med veliko recesijo svojo izhodiščno višjo raven javnega dolga obvladovala uspešneje. Ob posebej hitrem naraščanju proračunskih izdatkov, povezanih s staranjem prebivalstva, v kombinaciji z upadajočim trendom rasti outputa bo dolgoročno vzdržnost slovenskih in belgijskih javnih financ pogojevala uspešna nadaljnja fiskalna konsolidacija. Ugotavljamo, da je trenutno makroekonomsko okolje ugodno za vzdržno znižanje razmerja med javnim dolgom in outputom obeh držav. Pomembno pa je, da se ob fiskalnem naporu neto proračunski prihodki prestrukturirajo v kompozicijo, ki bo Sloveniji zagotovila dvig produktivnosti dela, v Belgiji pa pripomogla k zaviranju upada njene rasti ter dvignila raven agregatne zaposlenosti. Fiskalna preudarnost mora ostati prioriteta slovenske in belgijske ekonomske politike, v nacionalnem interesu obeh držav je omejevanje ciklične pristranskosti njenih nosilcev. Slovenia is a less developed economy than Belgium, and both have a lower level of GDP p.c. than Sweden. Decomposition of general government net expenditure offers a good explanation to account for this. Share of public investment in % of Slovenian and Belgian GDP is low and has shrunk in the aftermath of the Great Recession. During the last crisis both countries increased their above-average volume of social spending. Social security contributions and taxes on income represent both governments' greatest source of income. Slovenia's catch-up process was interrupted by the last economic downturn recession in the real sector was deepened by the financial crisis. Recapitalisation of the Slovenian banking sector, amongst other factors, caused rapid detoriation of Slovenian government balance, which resulted in an explosive increase of public debt and debtservicing costs. During the Great Recession Belgian debt-to-GDP ratio increased at a slower pace, however remained on a much higher level. With raising pressures on public finance sustainability due to demographic change and declining trend in output growth, further fiscal consolidation remains crucial. We note that the current state of the economy provides a good opportunity for bringing down debt-to-GDP ratio in both countries. In addition to fiscal effort, general government net revenue ought to be restructured in a way which will promote labour productivity growth in Slovenia and stop its decline in Belgium, while raising the level of aggregate employment. Fiscal prudence ought to remain decision makers' priority, limitation of their cyclical bias is in national interest of both countries.

V diplomskem delu je predstavljena ameriška centralna banka FED kot organizacija, njeno zgodovinsko ozadje, njeni sestavni organi ter raznovrstna orodja, s katerimi razpolaga za doseganje gospodarske in finančne blaginje. Njena sestava in vodenje je edinstveno, tako kot njeno delovanje, saj predstavlja eno največjih svetovnih finančnih institucij, ki narekuje finančno in gospodarsko politiko, ne samo v ZDA, temveč tudi v svetu. Odločitve, katere sprejme, vplivajo na vse nivoje družbe ter na celotno svetovno gospodarstvo, zato je ključnega pomena, da so sprejete v skladu z zagotavljanjem dolgoročne blaginje in ne v skladu s aktualnimi političnimi prepričanji, kar je v realnem svetu prepogosta praksa, saj določeni negativni ukrepi pomenijo izgubo politične moči in s tem povezanih političnih funkcij. Poznavanje delovanja FED omogoča podrobnejšo predstavo o ameriških ter svetovnih ekonomskih situacijah, pripomore k razumevanju razlogov za nastanke globalnih finančnih kriz in razlaga njene konvencionalne ter nekonvencionalne ukrepe v času blaginje ali krize. Njeno delovanje je med finančno in monetarno krizo je še toliko bolj pomembno za hitrejše okrevanje gospodarstva in doseganja baginje ter idealnih možnosti za razvoj in povnitev zaupanja v njeno delovanje. V kolikor bi institucije ter posamezniki izgubili zaupanje v delovanje banke, pa bi se posluževali drugih načinov hranjenja ter investiranja denarja in bi s tem povzročili razpad sistema kot ga danes poznamo. Zato je ključnega pomena transparentnost poslovanja centralne banke za pridobitev zaupanja ter dobra gospodarnost za zagotavljanje baginje prebivalstvu in svetovnemu gospodarstvu, kar pa pomeni, da morajo biti banke ločene od politike ter ostali na začrtani poti ki vodi k dolgoročni rasti in stabilnosti države kor tudi svetovnega gospodarstva. In this paper, I have presented FED bank as organization its historical background and its additional bodies and various tools at his disposal to achive economic, financial stability and prosperity that are crucial for maintaining steady growth and prosperity. Its managment and structure is unique because it operates one of the world’s lagerst financial organization that dictates financial policies not only for US, but also for the rest of the world. Decisions that are made impactes all levels of society and therefore it is crucial for them to be adopted in line with ensuring long-term prosperitiy an a way that is not in line with current political beliefs or trends that are in practise difficult to surpass as this would sorely meant loss of political power and it´s functions. Knowning the functioning and actions of the Fed allows more in depth understadning of global financial situations and helps understand causes for global financial crises and it´s tools such as monetary easing and loans to contain and reverse caused damage. To gain confidance, trust and public simpaty FED must operate transparent and in accordance with laws that bind it to strive and maintain long-term prosperity, maintaining country and the world stable monetary and financial growth. This is sometimes, due to conflict of interests between politics and economy, difficult task to achive, therefore FED and politics must be separated and operate under different jurisdiction. Without confindance of other institutions and people central banking will colapse which will lead to financial kaos and unstable economy around thge world.

Diplomska naloga zajema tematiko financiranja javnega dolga. V delu je podrobno opisan javni dolg in njegova struktura financiranja v Republiki Sloveniji ter Republiki Italiji. Svetovno gospodarstvo sčasoma okreva po svetovni finančni krizi, medtem ko si Slovenija in Italija še nista povsem opomogli. Obe omenjeni državi sta se ob vstopu v EU zavezali k izpolnjevanju Maastrichtskih kriterijev. Nad dovoljeno zgornjo mejo le-te ostajajo še danes. Osnovni namen diplomske naloge je analizirati javni dolg in njegovo strukturo financiranja. Delo je sestavljeno iz več sklopov. V prvem sklopu je podana teoretična opredelitev javnega dolga, njegovo nastajanje, različni vidiki opredelitve. Prav tako sem zajela tudi proračunski primanjkljaj, njegove vire financiranja in vrste. Podani so instrumenti zadolževanja države in breme javnega dolga. V drugem sklopu je podrobneje opisan javni dolg Slovenije, njegov organizacijski vidik, njegovo nastajanje, rokovna struktura, stanje in financiranje ter struktura zadolževanja med leti 2010–2016. V tretjem sklopu je podrobneje opisan javni dolg Italije, njegovo nastajanje, stanje in financiranje ter struktura zadolževanja med leti 2010–2016. Predstavljen je tudi način zadolževanja Italije. V zadnjem sklopu je podana primerjava javnega dolga obeh držav po Maastrichtskem kriteriju. Zaradi zadolževanja na tujih trgih pogojeno z bonitetno oceno je v drobnogled vključeno delovanje treh najpomembnejših bonitetnih agencij in tako ugotovitev korektnosti izdanih ocen za Slovenijo in Italijo v analiziranem obdobju. V zaključku je podana ugotovitev, da Slovenija ni tako uspešna pri sanaciji javnega dolga in finančnega primanjkljaja kot Republika Italija, kar je bilo tudi pričakovati. Ustrezno je podan komentar o strukturi financiranja. This bachelor degree thesis covers the financing of public debt. It contains detailed description of public debt and its structure of financing it in Republic of Slovenia and Italian Republic. World economy is slowly recovering from the global financial crisis, while Slovenia and Italy are still struggling with it and searching for options to recover. After accession to the EU, both countries committed themselves to comply with criteria of the Maastricht Treaty. Nevertheless, they are both still above the allowed limit set in the Treaty. The main goal of this thesis is to analyse public debt and its structure of financing. The main content is composed of several parts. In the first part I try to explain the theoretical basis of public debt, its formation and different possibilities of defining it. Furthermore I explain budget deficit, its financing and types. Moreover, I present instruments of borrowing and burden of debt. In the second part I focus on describing public debt of Republic of Slovenia, its organisational aspects, formation, term structures, status, financing and structure of debt between 2010 -2016. In the third part I present public debt of Italian Republic, its formation, status, financing and structure of borrowing between 2010 – 1016. Furthermore, I explain the process of borrowing in Italian Republic. In the last part I compare public debt of both countries in connection to Maastricht criteria. Due to borrowing on non-domestic markets, under the condition of credit ratings, the functioning and credibility of ratings issued by the three most important credit rating agencies, are included. To conclude I explain the fact, that Slovenia is not very successful in remediation of public debt and financial deficit. This was also the expected finding of this thesis. Additionally, short commentary of financial structure can be find in this section.

Kadar država ne zmore več financirati javnofinančnih odhodkov si mora sredstva zanje izposoditi. To lahko stori tako, da se zadolži na domačem ali tujem trgu. V skladu z zakonom o javnih financah se zadolževanje države v posameznem letu izvaja na podlagi programa financiranja, ki pa ga sprejme državni zbor. Znesek, ki ga država dolguje domačim ali tujim upnikom imenujemo javni dolg. V veliki meri javni dolg predstavljajo državne obveznice, vključuje pa lahko tudi obveznosti iz naslova posojil in danih poroštev. V letih pred finančno krizo mnogo držav ni izkoristilo takratnih ugodnih razmer, da bi si ustvarile rezerve za prihodnje krize. Zato je v veliko državah euroobmočja finančna kriza vzrok za kopičenje javnega dolga. To hitro naraščanje javnega dolga je v okolju finančne nestabilnosti in nizke rasti povečalo potrebo po vzdržnosti javnega dolga. Z namenom doseganja vzdržnosti javnih financ je Slovenija sprejela fiskalno pravilo. Na fiskalnem področju je ena izmed najpomembnejši funkcij države upravljanje javnega dolga. V Sloveniji za upravljanje dolga skrbi državna zakladnica, ki je del Ministrstva za finance. V diplomske projektu smo analizirali javni dolg in njegovo strukturo v Sloveniji v obdobju 2006-2016. Po narejeni analizi smo ugotovili, da se Slovenija večinoma zadolžuje z izdajanjem vrednostnih papirjev. Večji znesek dolga predstavlja notranji dolg, kar pomeni da se država v veliki meri raje zadolžuje na domačem trgu. Slovenija se predvsem zadolžuje dolgoročno tako na domačem trgu kot tudi tujem trgu, saj so namreč vse zadolžitve v opazovanem obdobju na tujem trgu dolgoročne. Od leta 2006 naprej ko je Slovenija vstopila v evropsko monetarno unijo je večina slovenskega dolga v evrih. When a state can no longer finance general government expenditures, it must borrowin domestic or foreign financial market. In accordance with the Public Finance Act, government borrowing in one single year is carried out on the basis of a funding programme adopted by the National Assembly. The amount that state owes to domestic or foreign creditors is called public debt. To a great extent, public debt includes government bonds, as well as liabilities under loans, and guarantees given. In the years before the financial crisis, many states did not take advantage of, at that time, favourable conditions in order to create reserves for future crises. Therefore, in many euro area Member States the financial crisis has been the reason for the accumulation of public debt. This rapid increase of public debt raised the need for sustainability of public debt in the environment of financial instability and low growth. In order to achieve sustainability of public finances, Slovenia adopted the fiscal rule. In the fiscal area, one of the most important functions of the state is the management of the public debt. In Slovenia, the state treasury, which is part of the Ministry of Finance, is responsible for the debt management. In the diploma project we analyzed the public debt and its structure in Slovenia in the period from 2006 to 2016. After the analysis, we established that Slovenia has been borrowing money mostly by issuing securities. The greatest share of debt represents an internal debt, thus meaning that the state largely prefers to borrow in the domestic market. Slovenia primarily borrows long-term, both in the domestic market and in the foreign market, as all the borrowing in the observed period on the foreign market is long-term. Since 2006, when Slovenia joined the European Monetary Union, most of Slovenia’s debt has been in euros.

Portugal is a member of the group known by investors as ‘PIIGS’, countries characterised by having high public debt and weak economic growth. Using an extended time horizon, 1974–2014, this study seeks to empirically explore the relationship between economic growth and public debt in the PIIGS economies, particularly in the case of Portugal. Based on the estimation of linear regression models, it was concluded that in the last four decades there has been a negative relationship between economic growth and public debt in both cases, which is consistent with the literature. The negative relationship was even more pronounced in the case of the PIIGS than it was in the case of Portugal. Portugalska je članica skupine držav, investitorjem poznane kot PIIGS, ki jo označujeta visok javni dolg in šibka gospodarska rast. V tej raziskavi smo v razširjenem obdobju 1974–2014 empirično preverili povezavo med ekonomsko rastjo in javnim dolgom v gospodarstvih PIIGS in na Portugalskem. Na osnovi ocene linearnih regresijskih modelov ugotavljamo, da je v zadnjih štirih desetletjih v obeh primerih povezava med ekonomsko rastjo in javnim dolgom negativna, kar je skladno z literaturo. Negativna povezava je bila celo bolj izrazita v gospodarstvih PIIGS kot na Portugalskem.

Cilj tega diplomskega dela je predstaviti fiskalno pravilo, ki ga je izoblikovala Evropska unija z namenom omejiti zadolževanje držav in s tem poglabljanje krize in so ga z evropskim fiskalnim paktom v svojo zakonodajo sprejele države članice EU. V nalogi bodo podrobneje predstavljene vrste fiskalnih pravil, vsebina oz. določbe fiskalnega pakta ter kako se je uredil vpis pravila v državah članicah EU, seveda pa bo poudarek tudi na tem, kako se je z vpisom fiskalnega pravila spremenil 148. člen slovenske Ustave ter kaj to pomeni za Slovenijo. Nekoliko podrobneje bo predstavljen tudi leta 2015 sprejet Zakon o fiskalnem pravilu, pa tudi napake in odkloni zakonskih določb glede na ustavno določeno fiskalno pravilo. The aim of this graduate thesis is to present the fiscal rule formulated by the European Union in order to limit the borrowing of countries and thus deepening the crisis and that was adopted by EU Member States with the European fiscal compact. The thesis will detail the types of fiscal rules, content and the provisions of the European fiscal compact and how has the entry of the rule into EU Member States’ national legislation been regulated. The emphasis will also be on how the 148th article of the Slovenian Constitution has changed with the entry of the fiscal rule and what this means for Slovenia. The Fiscal Rule Act will also be presented in more detail, as well as errors and deviations of legal provisions in accordance with the constitutionally determined fiscal rule.

V obdobju finančne in gospodarske krize je bila za ohranjanje stabilnosti celotnega gospodarstva Evropske unije in učinkovitega razporejanja javnofinančnih sredstev ena od glavnih nalog sprejetje strogih ukrepov za omejevanje fiskalnih politik. V magistrski nalogi sem proučevala učinke varčevalnih ukrepov in vplive sprejetih fiskalnih pravil na proračune izbranih evropskih držav. Poleg Slovenije sem izbrala še Nemčijo kot vodilno gospodarstvo v Evropi, sosednje države Italijo, Avstrijo in Hrvaško ter Španijo in Grčijo kot državi, ki sta že prejeli finančno pomoč Evropske unije. Z interpretacijo in analizo primarnih in sekundarnih virov sem proučevala vrste in učinke ukrepov tako za zmanjševanje porabe javnofinančnih izdatkov, kot za spodbujanje gospodarske rasti, konkurenčnosti in zaposlovanja, izvedla sem večletno analizo in primerjavo gibanja javnofinančnih dolgov in javnofinančnih primanjkljajev posameznih držav, opisala pravni okvir, ki ureja področje javnih financ ter rezultate primerjala z mednarodnimi študijami, ki poudarjajo predvsem negativne učinke varčevalnih ukrepov, vzroke za nastalo dolžniško krizo in pomanjkanje socialnega dialoga pri krčenju porabe javnih sredstev. Nadaljevala sem s pregledom proračunskih reform z vidika računovodenja javnega sektorja, uporabe mednarodnih računovodskih standardov ter analizirala in predstavila uporabo transparentnejšega računovodenja javnega sektorja po načelu nastanka poslovnega dogodka. Na osnovi rezultatov analiz in podatkov sem ugotovila, da so varčevalni ukrepi sicer vplivali na zmanjšanje javnofinančnega primanjkljaja, niso pa odpravili javnega dolga, zato sem za učinkovitejše razporejanje in porabo javnih sredstev predlagala sprejem ter izvajanje dodatnih notranjih in zunanjih kontrol, merjenje in povečanje učinkovitosti celotnega javnega sektorja, sankcioniranje nespoštovanja zakonodaje ter uvedbo vrednotenja javnih storitev in povečanje nadzora nad gospodarskimi subjekti, ki sodelujejo z javnim sektorjem. To maintain economic stability of entire European union economy and efficient distribution of public funds in the circumstances of financial and economic crisis, the major task was adopting rigorous measures for restricting fiscal policies. In my Master's thesis I have examined the impacts of austerity measures and the influences of adopted fiscal rules on the budgets of selected European countries. Along with Slovenia I choosed Germany as a leading economy in Europe, Slovenia's neighbouring countries Italy, Austria, Croatia and also Spain and Greece, as the countries, which had already received financial aid from European Union. With interpretation and analysis of primary and secondary sources I examined the nature and effects of different kinds of measures as to reduce public spending as well as fostering economic growth, competitiveness and employment. I did a multi-year analysis, compared the fluctuation of public debts and fiscal deficits in the individual Member States and described the legal framework that governs the area of public finances. I compared the results with international studies that stress in particular the negative effects of austerity measures and examined the reasons for the debt crisis and the lack of social dialogue in the shrinkage of public funds spending. I continued to review budgetary reforms in terms of public sector accounting and analysed application of international accounting standards and presented the use of transparent public sector accounting on the principle of accrual accounting. On the basis of these results, I found that saving measures had some impact on the reduction of the fiscal deficit, but they had not eliminated the public debt. For more efficient allocation and use of public resources I proposed the adoption and implementation of additional internal and external controls. Furthermore, I proposed to measure the efficiency of the entire public sector and to sanction failure to comply with legislation. Along with that I proposed to evaluate public services and to increase control over economic subjects that cooperate with public sector.

Diplomsko delo zajema tematiko javnega dolga. Javni dolg se nanaša na celoten znesek dolga posamezne države in ga lahko razdelimo po različnih kriterijih. Vpliv javnega dolga na gospodarstvo je odvisen od tega, za kaj se sredstva, ki smo jih pridobili z zadolževanjem, uporabljajo. Ekonomisti se strinjajo, da javni dolg negativno vpliva na gospodarstvo in da je nezaželjen pojav. Za pridobitev bonitetne ocene se analizirajo kazalci, kot so dohodek na prebivalca, inflacija, stanje bilance, analizira se poslovanje države, njen delež na trgih itd. S kombinacijo črk in številk, ter z znakoma plus in minus, kar dodatno povečuje razpon možnih bonitetnih ocen, bonitetne ocene dajejo vlagateljem perspektivo države. Tako Slovenija kot Hrvaška sta bili del bivše države SFRJ, z razpadom katere sta bili prisiljeni prevzeti del dolga, tako da sta bili zadolženi že od samega nastanka. V diplomskem delu primerjam, kako se je javni dolg obeh držav gibal čez leta, v obdobju od 2000 do 2015. Razvidno je, da sta se obe državi zadolževali in da je javni dolg naraščal. V obdobju od 2006 do 2008 se je višina javnega dolga obeh držav začela zniževati, ampak v letu 2008 je prišlo do velike gospodarske in finančne krize, ki je zajela tudi ti dve državi, kar pa je pomenilo ponovno rast javnega dolga. This paper contains theme of public debt. Public debt is related to the complete amount of debt of a particular state. We can set out multiple kinds of public debt, and we can dismember it into segments. The influence on economy depends on the distribution of resources granted with loans. Economists agree that public debt has a negative influence on the economy of the state and that it is an unwanted occurrence. Income by resident, inflation, state of bilance, share of teh state in the market and state finances are all important for calculation of the credit rating. With the combination of letters and numbers, and sings plus and minus, which additionaly expands the range of possible credit score. Credit score provides the investor with the states perspective. Slovenia and Croatia were both a part of SFRJ, and with it's desolvation they were both forced to take a part of it's debt, and from the founding of both states, they were already in debt. In this paper I examplify how the public debt of both states has changed throughout the years, in the period since 2000 to 2015. It is visible that both of the states have started with public debt and that the public debt has grown since then. From 2006 to 2008, the size of public debt has started decreasing, but in 2008 there has been an economic and financial crisis that has resulted in another growth in public debt.

Na podlagi analiziranja gospodarske krize in dolga Slovenije ter posameznih izbranih držav ugotavljamo, da je naraščanje javnega dolga tesno povezano z nastankom gospodarske krize. Največji poudarek je namenjen pregledu dogajanja v Sloveniji v obdobju pred in po gospodarski krizi, ki se je pojavila leta 2008. S pregledom točno določenega obdobja in posameznih držav ugotavljamo, da ima gospodarska kriza velik vpliv na celotni gospodarski sistem. Slovenija je ob izbruhu gospodarske krize, zaradi nepripravljenosti toliko bolj čutila padec gospodarske aktivnosti posebej pa so posledice vidne na področju javnih financ, zaposlenosti oziroma brezposelnosti in na zunanjetrgovinski bilanci. Čeprav slovenske javne finance v svoji zgodovini niso nikoli bile izrazito neuravnovešene je prav gospodarska kriza pokazala, da vendarle obstajajo težave v finančni strukturi države Slovenije. Zmanjšana gospodarska aktivnost, nekonkurenčnost izvoza, omejeno uspešni protkrizni ukrepi fiskalne politike in javnofinančni posegi za reševanje bančnega sistema so ustvarili izrazito povečanje javnega dolga v Sloveniji. Pred izbruhom gospodarske krize je Slovenija spadala med države z nizko zadolženostjo, po obdobju gospodarske krize pa je Slovenija zapadla v skupino srednje zadolženih države Evropske unije. On the basis of the analysis of the economic crisis and the debt of Slovenia and each of the selected countries show that the increase of the public debt is closely related to the occurrence of the economic crisis. The greatest emphasis is designed to review the developments in Slovenia in the period before and after the economic crisis that emerged in 2008. With a review of the fixed period and the individual countries we have determined that the economic crisis has had a great impact on the entire economic system. Slovenia is at the outbreak of the economic crisis, due to the unpreparedness, evan more felt the decline in economic activity. Consequences are particularly visible in the area of public finances, employment, unemployment and external trade balance. Although slovenian public finances in their history, have never been distinctly unstable is also the economic crisis has shown, there are problems in the financial structure of the republic of Slovenia. Reduced economic activity, uncompetitive export , limited success of »anti-crisis« fiscal policy measures and government interventions to rescue the banking system have created a marked increase in public debt in Slovenia. Before the outbreak of the economic crisis Slovenia was among the countries with low debt burdens, but after a period of economic crisis Slovenia fell into the group of medium-indebted countries of the European Union.

Leta 2007 smo bili priča nastanku finančne krize, ki se je najprej pojavila v Ameriki in je kasneje zajela še preostanek sveta. Maja 2010 je krizo v evropskem sistemu sprožila dolžniška kriza Grčije. Sprva se je zdelo, da je recesija že dosegla dno, vendar je dokaj hitro postalo jasno, da temu ni tako saj se je javni dolg v državah drastično povečal. Raven javnega dolga v Sloveniji leta 2008 sicer še ni bila tako kritična, saj je bila še vedno pod povprečjem EU, ki je v letu 2010 znašala 80 odstotkov BDP-ja EU, problematičen pa je bil trend zadolževanja, saj je bil ta med državami članicami EU v zadnjih letih med najhitreje rastočimi. Javi dolg v Sloveniji se je v naslednjih letih hitro začel povečevati. V prvem četrtletju leta 2013 smo zabeležili visok padec gospodarske aktivnosti, padec BDP je bil po razpoložljivih podatkih med največjimi v evrskem območju. Javni dolg, ki je bil med letoma 2006 in 2010 v povprečju 28,6-odstoten, bo še naraščal. Do konca leta 2015 se je povzpel na 80,8 odstotka BDP. Španija se trenutno sooča z najhujšo finančno krizo v zadnjih petdesetih letih. Kriza se je začela kot razširitev mednarodne finančne krize in kot posledica neravnovesij v bančnem in nepremičninskem sektorju. Javni dolg se znatno povečuje. Najhujše posledice finančne krize so se pokazale leta 2009. Upad gospodarstva, proizvodnje, izguba delovnih mest, upad BDP-ja za 6 %. Javni dolg v Španiji je trenutno dosegel rekord saj po podatkih španske centralne banke znaša že 87,8% BDP. Finančna kriza v Grčiji se je začela leta 2009 z dvomi investitorjev, če je Grčija sposobna servisirati svoje dolgove. Sprva je grška vlada prikrivala realne podatke o višini javnega dolga in primanjkljaja ampak se je hitro pokazalo, da sta javnofinančni primanjkljaj in javni dolg bistveno večja kot so sprva prikazali. Leta 2009 je prišla na oblast nova vlada, se je izkazalo, da ima država proračunski primanjkljaj, štirikrat višji od dovoljenega po maastrichtskih kriterijih, ki jih morajo upoštevati države članice Evropske unije. Za nastanek takšnega javnega dolga in javnofinančnega primanjkljaja si je Grčija kriva veliko sama saj je značilno, da je v preteklosti in prav tako tudi sedaj prihaja do davčnih utaj. S pobiranjem davkov države služijo kar v tem primeru pri utaji davkov seveda pomeni, da je država ogoljufana in sicer je Grčija letno izgubila tudi do 20 mrd evrov. Spodbujanje gospodarske rasti in zmanjševanje javnega dolga je strateška prednostna naloga Evropske Unije in držav članic ter je del lizbonske strategije. V podporo tej strateški prednostni nalogi izvaja Evropska unija skupno politiko v vseh sektorjih gospodarstva, medtem ko države članice izvajajo lastne nacionalne strukturne reforme. Učinki teh reform in politik se čutijo v vsej Evropski uniji zaradi tesnih in vse pogostejših vezi med državami članicami. In year 2007, we witnessed the emergence of the financial crisis, which first appeared in America and later was extended to the rest of the world. In May 2010 the debt crisis of Greece caused crisis in the European system. At first it seemed that the recession has reached bottom, but fairly quickly it became clear that this is not so because the public debt in the countries increased dramatically. The level of public debt in Slovenia in 2008 at first was not so critical because it was still below the EU average which in 2010 amounted 80 % of the GDP in the EU. Problematic has been the trend of borrowing, this has been between member states in EU in recent years among the fastest growing. Java debt in Slovenia in the next few years started to increase rapidly. In the first quarter of 2013, we recorded a large decline in economic activity the decline in GDP was the data available, the highest in the euro area. Public debt, which was between 2006 and 2010, an average of 28.6 percent, will continue to grow. By the end of 2015 it rose to 80.8 percent of GDP. Spain is currently facing the worst financial crisis in the last fifty years. The crisis began as an extension of the international financial crisis and as a result of imbalances in the banking and real estate sector. Public debt increases significantly. The worst effects of the financial crisis has revealed the 2009 economic downturn, production, job losses, a decline in GDP of 6%. Public debt in Spain is currently reaching record because according to the Spanish central bank is already 87.8% of GDP. The financial crisis in Greece was launched in 2009 with the investors' doubts if Greece can service its debts. Initially, the Greek government is covering up the real data on the amount of public debt and deficits but quickly concluded that the general government deficit and public debt considerably larger than previously demonstrated. In 2009 he came to power a new government, it turned out that the state budget deficit is four times higher than allowed according to the Maastricht criteria, which must be respected by the Member States of the European Union. For the formation of such debt and the public deficit was much to blame Greece itself because it is characteristic that in the past and also now also comes to tax evasion. The tax collection, Member serve in this case for tax evasion, of course, means that the country is deceived through Greece annually lose up to 20 billion €. Promoting economic growth and debt reduction is a strategic priority for the European Union and the Member States and is part of the Lisbon Strategy. In support of this strategic priority by the European Union's common policy in all sectors of the economy, while the Member States implement their own national structural reforms. The effects of these reforms and policies are being felt across the European Union because of the close and growing ties between Member States.

Glavni namen naloge je oceniti vpliv globalne gospodarske in finančne krize, ki je nastopila leta 2008, na kratkoročno, srednjeročno in dolgoročno vzdržnost javnih financ skupine držav evroobmočja. Fiskalna vzdržnost pomeni dolgoročno plačilno sposobnost držav, pri katerih se delež javnega dolga v BDP ne povečuje oziroma ima težnjo vračanja na začetno raven. V teoretičnem delu naloge smo kritično prikazali dejavnike, ki vplivajo na vzdržnost javnih financ, in predstavili glavne metode ocenjevanja vzdržnosti javnih financ. V drugem, empiričnem delu smo ocenili fiskalno vzdržnost z metodo primarne fiskalne vrzeli, ki so jo v strokovno literaturo uvedli in uveljavili Buiter (1983), Bohn (1998) in Blanchard (1990). Kazalnik primarne fiskalne vrzeli meri razliko med deležem tekočega primarnega deficita v BDP in deležem zahtevanega stabilizacijskega deficita, potrebnega, da se delež javnega dolga v BDP ne poveča. Ključne spremenljivke, ki se v modelu uporabljajo, so: delež javnega dolga v BDP, delež fiskalnega salda v BDP, delež primarnega fiskalnega salda v BDP, nominalne in realne stopnje gospodarske rasti ter nominalne in realne obrestne mere na javni dolg. Zaključimo lahko, da je finančna kriza resno ogrozila vzdržnost javnih financ evroobmočja in izpostavila potrebo nujnega fiskalnega prilagajanja in dolgoročne fiskalne konsolidacije. Ker so v nalogi analizirani prihodnji dogodki ali stanja na podlagi zgodovinskih podatkov in arbitrarno izbranih izhodiščih, je treba upoštevati tveganje korektnosti dobljenih ocen. The main purpose of the master's thesis is to assess the impact of the global economic and financial crisis that occurred in 2008 in the short, medium and long-term sustainability of public finances of the euro area countries. Fiscal sustainability means long-term solvency of countries in which the debt-to-GDP ratio is not growing or has a tendency to return to the initial level. The theoretical part of the thesis I show the critical factors that affect the sustainability of public finances and present major assessment methods sustainability of public finances. In the second empirical part I assess the fiscal sustainability by the method of primary fiscal gap, which was introduced in the professional literature and asserted Buiter (1983), Bohn (1998), and Blannchard (1990). The ratio of primary fiscal gap measures the difference between the share of current primary deficit in GDP and the share of the stabilization deficit required that the debt-to-GDP ratio increases. Key variables used in the model are the share of public debt in GDP, the share of fiscal balance in GDP, the share of the primary fiscal balance to GDP, nominal and real economic growth rates and nominal and real interest rates on public debt. At the end, we can conclude that the financial crisis has seriously jeopardize the sustainability of public finances of the euro area, highlighting the urgent need for fiscal adjustment and fiscal consolidation. Since the task analyzed future events or conditions on the basis of historical data, the risk of correctness obtained estimates should be considered.

Evropske države so v obdobju dolžniške krize začele pospešeno izdajati dolžniške vrednostne papirje. Italija, Slovenija in Hrvaška so v času finančne in gospodarske krize z emisijo obveznic prišle do finančnih virov. S temi viri so pokrile primanjkljaj v proračunu in skušale zmanjšati višino javnega dolga z odplačilom obresti. V diplomskem seminarju tako podrobneje analiziramo tekočo donosnost in donosnost do dospetja, ki kaže na stroške zadolževanja omenjenih držav. Bonitetne agencije s svojim delovanjem vplivajo na vlagatelje, ki zahtevajo primerno stopnjo donosa za obveznico, v katero so investirali sredstva. V obdobju današnje krize so bonitetne hiše veliko pripomogle k zaostreni situaciji v državah, saj sta Slovenija in Hrvaška v določenem trenutku doživeli večkratno spremembo kreditne ocene, kar je sprožilo paniko na finančnih trgih. Tako Italija in Slovenija sta doživljali pretrese zaradi slabega delovanja na političnem področju. Vlagatelji so kljub enakim problemom investirali sredstva v italijanske obveznice, k čemur je pripomogla tudi Evropska centralna banka s svojimi ukrepi. Over the period of the debt crisis European countries started to issue the debt securities. Italy, Slovenia and Croatia are in a time of financial and economic crisis came to financial resources to cover the deficit in the budget by the issue of state bonds. In the graduate seminar we focused our analyze on the current yield and yield to maturity, which influence the borrowing costs of chosen countries. Credit rating agencies with theirs activities affect investors, which require an appropriate rate of bonds in which they were to invest their assets. During the present crisis, the credit rating agencies contribute a lot to the tight situation in countries such as Slovenia and Croatia, that are given moment experienced repeated change in the credit ratings, which triggered panic in the financial markets. Italy and Slovenia did also experienced shocks because of a malfunction in the political field. Investors did despite the same problems invest their assets in Italian bonds, due to the fact that European Central Bank subject Italy to strict austerity measures.

Magistrsko delo zajema tematiko javnega dolga in ukrepe za njegovo zmanjšanje. Globalno gospodarstvo danes že okreva po svetovni finančni krizi, medtem ko si Slovenija in Italija še nista opomogli od nje. Čeprav so se države ob vstopu v EU zavezale k izpolnjevanju Maastrichtskih kriterijev, so le-ti danes v večini držav še nad dovoljeno zgornjo mejo. Posebej problematična sta javnofinančni primanjkljaj in javni dolg. Osnovni namen magistrske naloge je analizirati gospodarski položaj Slovenije in nastanek javnega dolga. Ker nas zanima zadolževanje po nastanku finančne krize, smo analizirali makroekonomske razmere v Sloveniji v obdobju 2010-2012. V nadaljevanju smo preučili obveznice, kot dolgoročni instrument zadolževanja. Kljub vsakoletnemu zmanjšanju primanjkljaja bilance prihodkov in odhodkov se je Slovenija vsako leto še dodatno zadolžila na kapitalskih trgih. Ker je zadolževanje na tujih trgih pogojeno z bonitetno oceno države, smo v četrtem poglavju pod drobnogled vzeli delovanje treh najpomembnejših bonitetnih agencij. S pomočjo makroekonomskih podatkov smo preverili korektnost izdanih ocen za Slovenijo v obdobju 2010-2012. Delo smo zaključili z analizo javnega dolga Italije. Preučili smo zgodovino in nastanek javnega dolga ter kakšni so pogoji za izdajo obveznic na italijanskem trgu. Poiskali smo podobnosti in razlike javnega dolga Italije in Slovenije. Prišli smo do zaključka, da kljub varčevalnim ukrepom, Slovenija napram Italiji ni tako uspešna pri sanaciji javnega dolga in finančnega primanjkljaja. Cilj izhodne strategije je bil odprava presežnega primanjkljaja pod mejne 3% BDP do leta 2013. Tega cilja Slovenija ni dosegla, zato ji je Evropska komisija morala podaljšati rok do leta 2015. Master's thesis covers the topic of public debt and measures to reduce it. The global economy today is out of global financial crisis, while Slovenia and Italy had not yet recovered from it. Even though countries, entering European union, committed to meet the Maastricht criteria, these criteria are today in most contries over the allowed limit. Especially problematic are the general government deficit and public debt. The primary purpose of the master's thesis is to analyze the economic situation in Slovenia and the formation of public debt. Since we are interested in borrowing after the financial crisis happened, we analyzed the macroeconomic situation of Slovenia in 2010-2012. In the third chapter we considered bonds as long-term debt instruments. We took under the microscope the period 2010-2012 and the issuance of bonds during this period. Despite each year's reduction of deficit of revenue and expenditure, Slovenia every year borrows more on capital market. Since borrowing in foreign markets is a subject of country's credit rating, we took in fourth chapter under the microscope functioning of the three major credit rating agencies. As more and more is said about the adequacy of ratings, we used macroeconomic data to verify the correctness of ratings issued for Slovenia in period 2010-2012. We completed the work with the analysis of public debt of Italy. We have studied the history and formation of public debt and what are the conditions for issuing bonds on Italian market. We have identified similarities and differences of debt in Slovenia and Italy. We came to the conclusion that despite the savings measures, Slovenia vs. Italy is not so successful in the rehabilitation of public debt and deficit. The aim of the exit strategy was the elimination of the deficit below the 3% GDP by 2013. Slovenia did not achieved this objective, so the European Commission extended the deadline until 2015.