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This paper develops a novel Bayesian heterogeneous panel vector autoregressive model (B-HP-VAR) that quantifies the impact of geopolitical risk shocks on the tourism industry of 14 emerging market and developing economies (EMDE). We find that increasing geopolitical tensions have a persistent negative effect on tourism demand in most of these countries, as shown by our impulse response estimates. Furthermore, evidence from forecast error variance decomposition reveals that geopolitical risk shocks in many EMDE economies constitute the main driver of tourism demand. Analysis from historical decompositions demonstrates that geopolitical tensions have been particularly influential in driving tourism demand in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, China, Indonesia, Thailand, Colombia, and Mexico. Our main findings are robust to several perturbations to the benchmark specification. Our results have several important implications for policymakers in their efforts to strengthen the ability of the tourism industry to absorb shocks from geopolitical tensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show root‐T consistency of the smoothed AIC and smoothed BIC model averaging estimators (sAIC, sBIC) of impulse response coefficients in stationary vector autoregressive models of finite lag order. We also show that there is not one unique way to define the sAIC and sBIC estimators, but that instead there is a whole class of each of these defined by a weight scaling factor that allows the averaging estimator to become more similar to either its model selection counterpart or the equal weights averaging estimator. We also show asymptotic validity of a bootstrap method for estimating the averaging estimators' distributions. Simulations illustrate the benefits of using sAIC instead of AIC estimators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper extends the discussion on the effects of the two distinctive monetary surprises in the literature. First, we show that the proxy of conventional monetary shock Granger causes the endogenous variables in the vector autoregressive model. Second, we provide evidence that the existing model can be exposed to a weak instrument problem. With our alternative model mitigating these concerns, the second monetary shock can be interpreted as unconventional monetary news in general. The estimation results show contractionary effect of the unconventional policy. We find increases in output after a positive conventional monetary surprise, suggesting an important Fed's information effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the pass-through of unanticipated movements in growth and variance of exchange rate to inflation. First, it quantifies the volatility of the exchange rate by using the GARCH-X model. Foreign exchange reserves are considered as an exogenous variable that plays an instrumental role in stabilising the exchange rate. Second, the SVAR model is estimated to identify the responses of inflation to unanticipated shocks. The results indicate that there is a direct relationship between exchange rate volatility and inflation in the economies where the volatility is relatively high, such as Pakistan, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Turkiye. While, in economies with flexible exchange rate regimes and less volatile exchange rates, volatility tend to have either a negative or minimal effect on inflation. The findings on the effect of unexpected exchange rate fluctuations on inflation align with economic theory. Countries like Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hungary, Egypt, Georgia, and Poland, which experience greater exchange rate volatility, exhibit a positive pass-through to inflation. Consequently, the study concludes that exchange rate stability is crucial for controlling inflation in emerging economies. Additionally, the study suggests that these countries should prioritize building adequate foreign exchange reserves, and emphasizes the importance of central bank independence in monetary policy decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All parameters in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are locally identified when the structural shocks are independent and follow non‐Gaussian distributions. Unfortunately, standard inference methods that exploit such features of the data for identification fail to yield correct coverage for structural functions of the model parameters when deviations from Gaussianity are small. To this extent, we propose a locally robust semiparametric approach to conduct hypothesis tests and construct confidence sets for structural functions in SVAR models. The methodology fully exploits non‐Gaussianity when it is present, but yields correct size/coverage for local‐to‐Gaussian densities. Empirically, we revisit two macroeconomic SVAR studies where we document mixed results. For the oil price model of Kilian and Murphy (2012), we find that non‐Gaussianity can robustly identify reasonable confidence sets, whereas for the labor supply–demand model of Baumeister and Hamilton (2015) this is not the case. Moreover, these exercises highlight the importance of using weak identification robust methods to assess estimation uncertainty when using non‐Gaussianity for identification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ridge regression is a popular method for dense least squares regularization. In this article, ridge regression is studied in the context of VAR model estimation and inference. The implications of anisotropic penalization are discussed, and a comparison is made with Bayesian ridge‐type estimators. The asymptotic distribution and the properties of cross‐validation techniques are analyzed. Finally, the estimation of impulse response functions is evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations and ridge regression is compared with a number of similar and competing methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The demand for natural gas as a transitional fuel has been increasing steadily due to global energy transitions. However, the high concentration of natural gas sources among a few producers and the dependence of many consuming economies raises questions about the macroeconomic impact of gas price shocks. Therefore, this study utilizes the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach to estimate the spillover effects of natural gas price shocks on key macroeconomic indicators. To enhance the GVAR data vintage, we have incorporated Iran and Russia in 24 countries and updated data till 2020. Our empirical analysis reveals that inflation responds positively to gas price hikes in major gas-consuming countries. Moreover, real GDP responds positively to increased gas prices in resource-rich countries such as Iran and Russia but negatively in other countries. Additionally, an augmentation of resource rents fosters GDP for Iran and Russia. Our findings highlight several policy implications that account for gas price shocks. Therefore, policymakers should consider the spillover effects of gas price shocks and their impact on inflation and real GDP. Moreover, resource-rich countries like Iran and Russia should optimize resource rents to foster economic growth.

The aim of the paper is to analyze changes and peculiarities of behavior of economic agents with bounded rationality in the New Keynesian model, in which imported equipment and technology are one of the factors of production, and households consume only domestic products. The formation of output gap and inflation expectations by agents is based on stationary values of these variables and on extrapolation of the latest available data on inflation and the output gap. The weight shares of agents applying these rules change endogenously. Histograms of the frequency distribution of the degree of buoyancy and the impulse responses of monetary policy shocks and technology shocks to the variables under study show that a less open economy tends to go through an economic cycle with a smaller amplitude than a more rigid economy. Analyses of the trade-offs between the volatility of inflation and the output gap at different parameter values in the Taylor rule show their non-linear nature (in contrast to standard models with rational expectations). An important result obtained in this analysis is that the rational expectations hypothesis is more consistent with a closed economy than with an open one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a new bootstrap algorithm for inference for impulse responses in structural vector autoregressive models identified with an external proxy variable. Simulations show that the new bootstrap algorithm provides confidence intervals for impulse responses which often have more precise coverage than and similar length to the competing moving-block bootstrap intervals. An empirical example shows how the new bootstrap algorithm can be applied in the context of identifying monetary policy shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that Local Projections (LP) residuals are autocorrelated. Conventional wisdom says that LP have to be estimated by OLS and that GLS is not possible because the autocorrelation process is unknown and/or because the GLS estimator would be inconsistent. I show that the autocorrelation process of LP can be written as a Vector Moving Average (VMA) process of the Wold errors and impulse responses and that autocorrelation can be corrected for using a consistent GLS estimator. Monte Carlo simulations show that estimating LP with GLS can lead to more efficient estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of COVID-19 on health-related cryptocurrencies. More precisely, we use the variable-Lag time-series (VLT) causality to test whether the pandemic caused the price performance and the volume of transactions of these cryptocurrencies. We then employ time-varying parameter (TVP) models to capture the sign of this effect (for the evidenced cases) and the impulse responses among the cryptocurrencies since they may affect one another. The results show there is no certain pattern, which means that for the years of the pandemic, COVID-19, has impacted cryptocurrencies differently, except for one case. Moreover, the results are very unstable during 2021, indicating time-varying characteristics for all cases, while during 2022, the impact of the pandemic on these cryptocurrencies was mostly negative. Similarly, during 2020 the price was negatively affected, but the transaction volume was mainly positively impacted. Spillovers are evidenced only for 2022, for certain cases both in the prices and volume of transactions. The results indicate that the pandemic affected cryptocurrencies heterogeneously, evidencing a different pattern among the three years examined. This finding should be taken into consideration in the adoption of relevant technological advancements in healthcare.

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of unconventional monetary policy on inflation and economic growth in Algeria. To investigate this impact, we estimated a SVAR model, covering the period from 2006 to 2022 using quarterly data. The originality of this study is the use of the estimated dynamic effects of shocks (stylized facts) as a benchmark for assessing the effectiveness and pass-through of unconventional policies. Our results show that the shock induced by unconventional monetary policy is not transmitted to inflation, neither in the short run nor in the long run, even under theoretical restrictions. In addition, unconventional monetary shocks have no effect on real variables (economic growth).

The paper studies the effects of foreign (the US, the UK and the Chinese) and domestic economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks on unemployment in Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The analysis is run separately for the rates of adult and youth unemployment. Impulse responses derived from vector autoregressive models show that the magnitudes of the responses of the adult and youth segments of the labour market are quite different. Following an uncertainty shock, the youth unemployment rate increases significantly more than the adult unemployment rate. This is the case for France, Italy and Spain. The German labour market seems to be resistant to foreign (except Chinese) and domestic EPU shocks, while the remaining labour markets, foremost the Spanish and Italian ones, are susceptible to uncertainty shocks, especially to the US EPU shocks.

We construct an agricultural policy uncertainty (APU) index from leading national and local newspapers in major agricultural states in the United States from January 1999 to September 2021. Our analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty Granger causes APU linearly in the short run, but the relationship is nonlinear and bidirectional in the long run. When economic policy uncertainty is considered, APU significantly reduces hedgers' net short positions and speculators' net long positions (except for corn hedgers) in the corn and soybean markets. APU also has a significant positive impact on the log returns of corn and soybean futures prices, consistent with the theory of storage where commodity returns and volatility are positively correlated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conducted a study analyzing the impact of productivity shocks on equity returns in the U.S. economy from Q1 1960 to Q1 2022 using an RBC DSGE model. Our results suggest that while initial productivity shocks lead to higher equity returns, this effect fades within eight quarters. Nonetheless, such shocks can still provide valuable signals for investors to strategically allocate their investments in sectors that may benefit the most. Our study also found that the responses of key macroeconomic variables, including real GDP, are consistent with those observed in other calibration based DSGE models of the U.S. in previous research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In this research, using the most recent daily stock index data of Japan, Singapore, South Korea, India and China, we revisit the financial integration in Asia. The study applies Granger causality and Impulse Response Function to analyse the pattern of equity market integration in the region. The findings of the study reveal that price convergence among Asian stock markets is still relatively weak. In general, causality is unidirectional and existing among most markets with shortlived impacts. The asymmetrical price behaviour of Asian markets has implications for the pricing efficiency of national markets and suggests many opportunities for global investors to optimize returns through market diversifications on a long-term perspective.

Summary: This paper focuses on the identification and quantitative estimation of sanctions on the Iranian economy over the period 1989–2019. It provides a new time series approach and proposes a novel measure of sanctions intensity based on daily newspaper coverage. In absence of sanctions, Iran's average annual growth could have been around 4–5%, as compared to the 3% realized. Estimates of the proposed sanctions‐augmented structural VAR show that sanctions significantly decrease oil export revenues and result in substantial depreciation of Iranian rial, followed by subsequent increases in inflation and falls in output growth. Keeping other shocks fixed, 2 years of sanctions can explain up to 60% of output growth forecast error variance, although a single quarter sanction shock proves to have quantitatively small effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the behaviour of shipping investors following an unexpected shock in the freight rates, while accounting for costs (fuel), and the macro environment (stock prices and trade). The estimates firstly confirm the existence of a long-term relationship between the macroeconomic environment and freight rates, as well as between that and newbuilding orders. Most importantly, we find that when the source of the shock is less clear but still causes an increase in freight rates, shipping investors respond with a delay, which could last almost a year. The thinking behind this "inaction period" is rational, given that the only way to observe whether a shock is permanent or transitory is to wait it out. The above findings have important policy implications not only for shipping investors but also for countries that rely heavily on their ship-building industries. • We study the behaviour of investors after an unexpected shock in freight rates. • We confirm a long-term relationship between the macro environment and newbuilding orders. • We find that investors respond with a delay to positive shocks. • The findings have important policy implications for the ship-building industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose and scientific novelty of this work is to analyze the changes and features of economic agents' behavior when incorporating wage rigidity into a new Keynesian model under cognitive constraints of agents. The working hypothesis is the assumption that the forecasting of the output gap, inflation of prices and wages occurs with the help of fundamentalist and extrapolation rules. The first rule is based on forecasting the variables under study on the basis of their stationary values. The second rule is based on extrapolation of the latest available data on inflation and the output gap. The weight shares of agents applying these heuristic rules change endogenously, which is the source of endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism. An analysis of the impulse responses of interest rate and technology shocks suggests that a more flexible economy (an economy with flexible wages and rigid prices) is less prone to a spike in the economic cycle caused by waves of optimism and pessimism than a more rigid economy (an economy with rigid prices and wages) due to the inability of agents to respond immediately to exogenous disturbances in rigid conditions. Thus, these shocks cause wave effects in the economy, i.e., cyclical movements, i.e., a rigid economy will be more prone to booms and busts caused by alternating optimism and pessimism than a flexible economy. The model with an imperfect labor market is characterized by an increased concentration of vital forces at the values of 0 and 1, as well as in the mid-distribution compared to the base model. This feature provides a key explanation for the abnormal dynamics of the evolution of variables in this model. It is concluded that the difference between the degree of optimism and pessimism in the base model and in the model with rigid wages and prices is the full trust of agents in the central bank in targeting wage inflation in the absence of the stabilization of this inflation by the bank. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article considers online input signal design for kernel-based estimation of impulse responses where the input signal is designed one bit at a time while simultaneously performing the identification. A method referred to as the direct spectrum shaping (DSS) method is proposed based on the biased Cramér–Rao lower bound, combined with detailed analysis of two popular choices of kernels. With no gradient computations, the DSS technique is able to achieve comparable accuracy but with a significant reduction in computational times by a factor of more than 370 compared with the existing Bayesian A-optimality (BAO) technique. The BAO technique, in general, attains higher estimation accuracy for oscillatory systems whereas the DSS approach is superior for systems with smoother impulse responses. The DSS method possesses further advantages of simplicity of implementation and low crest factor due to the signal being binary. An application example on a simulated curing oven in the glove manufacturing industry illustrates the potential impact of the DSS method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, the effects of 103 bilateral regional trade agreements (RTAs: partial scope agreements — PSAs — and free trade agreements — FTAs) are studied in a dynamic way. The analysis of quarterly trade flows from Q4-1982 to Q4-2018 shows dynamic differences between RTAs and among trade partners. Results show that countries benefit unevenly from bilateral RTAs and that their economic size is not determinant. The positive global trade trend since the 1990s and the negative effect of the 2008 economic crisis are captured by the factor analysis in order to study specifically how trade agreements affect bilateral trade asymmetrically. On average, RTAs promote a 10% increase in bilateral trade flows above the mean trend, but PSAs tend to enhance bilateral trade more than FTAs (21% compared to 9%). Additionally, PSAs gather most of the effects during the first four quarters after the agreements are enforced whereas FTAs have longer effects over time. The current study allows a classification of bilateral trade series in homogeneous groups according to the dynamic impact of the bilateral RTAs by the means of a cluster analysis. Heterogeneity between clusters is therefore explored. Moreover, a difference concerning the economic crisis starting in 2008 is noticed: overall, for agreements in force before 2008, their impact on bilateral trade is positive (30%) while it is negative for agreements signed after 2008 (− 9%). This indicates that RTAs play a heterogeneous role as a smoothing cycle mechanism. Finally, evidence of the anticipation effect is found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between monetary policy and stock prices across advanced and emerging economies from January 1999 to December 2017. We also examine the impact of global monetary policy on the sample stock markets. Using the Structural Cointegrated Vector-Autoregressive model, we explore long-run equilibrium relationship and short-run dynamics of monetary policy and stock markets before and after the global financial crisis. Our results demonstrate that domestic policy rate and stock prices are often not tied together in long-term equilibrium relationships for a majority of the economies. Cross-sectional heterogeneity is observed as the relationship differs in terms of sign, magnitude and adjustment dynamics. Further, US monetary conditions are found to play an important role in influencing global output or liquidity conditions. Short-run dynamics reveal a positive impact of expansionary monetary policy shock on equity prices in those economies where transmission mechanism of monetary policy is weak. Further, we find limited response of central banks to domestic equity price shocks. The influence of US monetary policy shocks in driving equity prices is also found to be insignificant for a majority of the economies.

We estimate intentional and unintentional herding in the dry-bulk, ocean-going segment that spans from August 1998 to January 2020 and measure how this can impact vessel orders. As the results suggest, while intentional herding has a large effect on the orders of the newbuilding vessels, the impact is very short-lived. On the contrary, unintentional herding, related to common environmental factors, has a smoother but more time persistent effect on the newbuilding vessels. The findings suggest that the key players in the market do not only affect the dry-bulk market with their decisions but also the logistics trade and ultimately the world economy. Thus, the inclusion of the dry bulk key shipowners by the policymakers in the discussions before reaching an important decision could minimise the volatility of the overall sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates the dynamics between budget deficit and government debt in the U.S. using two different measures of the budget deficit: the current budget deficit and cyclically-adjusted budget deficit. A threshold Vector autoregression (VAR) model is estimated to explore the dynamics in different regimes using quarterly data from 1947:Q1 to 2017:Q3. The specification test rejects a linear VAR model against the threshold VAR. When we use the current budget deficit, regime 1 resemble governments prioritize minimizing budget deficit and debt, whereas, regime 2 resemble otherwise. When we use the cyclically adjusted budget deficit, regime 1 resemble economic expansions, whereas, regime 2 resemble recessions. The impulse responses show evidence of asymmetry and counter-cyclicality. The impulse responses also indicate that an increase in the debt dictate the government's response towards minimizing the budget deficit and tend to prioritize budget deficit less when the economy expands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic variable shocks on industrial and financial stock returns in Borsa Istanbul. To this end, we use the generalized forecast error variance decompositions and generalized impulse responses. The results show that inflation, the growth rate of the money supply, and the exchange rate provide significant information for forecasting industrial and financial stock market volatility. Industrial production (IP) growth does not provide significant information for financial sector investors. The study extends our understanding of sectoral stock market behavior in a developing country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates dynamic interactions and feedback effects between financial market risk proxied by VIX and key macroeconomic stability variables that include the rate of unemployment, headline inflation and market-based inflation expectations reflected by the breakeven inflation. We argue that market risk should play a stronger role in macroeconomic modeling and forecasting than it has been recognized thus far in the literature. We employ vector autoregression with impulse response functions, as well as two-state Markov switching tests to examine these interactions on the longest available US monthly data. The empirical tests show that the association between market risk and macroeconomic fundamentals is predominantly neutral at normal, predictable economic conditions. It becomes very pronounced at times of financial distress, in the environment of elevated market risk coupled with uncertain expectations for macroeconomic variables. Shocks in VIX have a longer impact on macroeconomic stability than that generally claimed in the prior literature. The Markov switching tests for CPI and breakeven inflation indicate that households and businesses are concerned primarily about episodes of increasing inflation, while bond market participants worry mainly about declining inflation and deflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effects of government spending shocks on real effective exchange rate in South Africa over the period 1970Q1–2019Q2. In doing so, a version of vector autoregressive impulse response model developed by Jordà is employed and the shocks are identified recursively. The impulse responses show that government spending shock has a significant appreciation effect on real effective exchange rate and its effect depends on the nature of the fiscal shock. Although the effect of government spending on real effective exchange rate does not depend on the sign of the shock, it varies over economic cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates a block recursive VAR to evaluate the relative impacts of US and Chinese GDP growth shocks on Australia's growth, controlling for the impacts of these shocks on growth in three of Australia's other major trading partners. For the sample 1984–2016, shocks to US GDP growth have a larger impact on Australian GDP growth than do shocks to Chinese GDP growth. In rolling windows through the sample, the impact of Chinese GDP shocks on Australia's growth increases substantially. For the sub‐sample 2000–2016, shocks to United States and Chinese GDP growth impact Australian GDP growth by the same magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the study is to explore the short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in China. The justification is that the undertaken topic is preeminent for devising strategies to promote economic development, thus, a course that carries much at stake not only for China but also for other developing countries. Methodology used in the study consists of co-integration tests, vector error correction models, Wald tests and impulse responses. Monthly time series data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China are analyzed. The main empirical results indicate that a change in exchange rates negatively affects FDI inflows in the long run while there exists no evidence of short-run dynamics and reciprocal feedback between exchange rate fluctuations and FDI inflows. Furthermore, a structural break occurs during the 2007-2009 global financial crisis shock to FDI inflows in China. In conclusions, this research expands knowledge of factors that affect FDI inflows. To generalize the results obtained from this study, recommendations for future research include studies encompassing different economies where data are available. Such research will contribute towards improving our understanding of exchange rate systems and responses in each market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective - The objective of this study is to test direction of causality between components of public expenditure and economic growth in India. Methodology/Technique - The paper uses annual data for the period 1980-2015. To measure public expenditure, plan expenditure and non-plan expenditure are used. The econometric methodology employed is Vector Auto regression (VAR) model. Findings - First, the stationary properties of the data were tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Dickey- Fuller (DF) test, and the Phillip-Perron (PP) test and found that variables were non-stationary in level, but stationary in first differences. Then, Johansen- Jueslius cointegration test was employed to test the long-run association among the variables and results suggest an absence of any long-run association between plan expenditure and non-plan expenditure and economic growth in India. The Granger Causality test suggests there is unidirectional causality running from economic growth and non-plan expenditure and plan expenditure and non-plan expenditure and absence of causality public expenditure and economic growth. Novelty - The results of the Forecast Error Variance Decompositions test indicated that innovations in the variables are mostly explained by their own shocks. The impulse responses of the economic growth, plan expenditure and non-plan expenditure with respect to identified shocks are consistent with the results of Variance Decomposition Analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a methodology to investigate which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles. It unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, a lack of a common cycle between two GDPs can be traced back to at least one shock with non-collinear structural impulse responses. We apply a Wald test to the collinearity hypothesis. Empirical results on the eurozone reveal that differences in the business cycles in several peripheral countries compared to a eurozone core are triggered mainly by local shocks. Depending on the country, real or nominal shocks turn out to play a more important role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]