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The relevance of the research is caused by the search for predictive parameters and criteria for changes in the electrical properties of rocks associated with the dissolution and removal of rock particles in areas with the spread of deposits of carbonate-sulfate composition. In addition, the use of geophysical methods with a one-sided approach to restoring the physical properties of a geological section does not always give an unambiguous assessment of the results obtained. The above facts indicate the need to search for and evaluate the possibilities of integrated solutions to increase the unambiguity of the interpretation of geophysical data and the reliability of forecast calculations. The purpose of the work consists in the development of scientific and methodological foundations of a method for assessing the danger of karst-suffusion processes. The object is represented by an array of rocks in the area of karst-suffusion processes. The methods used to achieve this goal are based on numerical modeling of electric fields, field observations by vertical electric sounding in various azimuthal directions, combined analysis of geological and geophysical data and laboratory studies. The AMS-1 hardware complex and the ZondRes3D, «Zond» software systems were used as tools. The study of electrical resistivity on rock samples was carried out using an original technique without disturbing the structure and humidity of monoliths. The research results reflect a comprehensive analysis of geological and geophysical data, including theoretical calculations in three-dimensional inhomogeneous media, field experiment and verification of the forecast model. Based on a priori information and laboratory data on the properties of the medium, a physico-geological model with weakened areas associated with the removal and dissolution of rocks was compiled. The revealed patterns are the basis for zoning on geometrization of potential areas of development of dangerous karst-suffusion processes and further selection of protective measures to strengthen the rock mass or design solutions.

In recent years, chemical experiment accidents have frequently occurred, resulting in injuries and fatalities among researchers. It is crucial to address this issue to improve laboratory safety. Based on many publications, it is clear that human error makes a major contribution to many laboratory accidents which contain hazardous processes. However, there is limited research focusing on human error in laboratory safety, and there is also a lack of effective measures to assess Human Error Probability (HEP) for experimental process safety. Therefore, we propose an improved Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) which is based on risk data to assess the HEP during hazardous processes in chemical experiments. The proposed method adjusts nine Common Performance Conditions (CPCs) in conventional CREAM to make them suitable to describe chemical experiments. Then, in contrast to the traditional approach, this study uses the definition of risk as the support to collect CPC data from the perspectives of possibility and severity, so as to improve the rationality of the data and decrease the subjectivity of expert judgment. Afterwards, the weight value of each CPC is calculated through Gray Relation Analysis (GRA) based on the collected risk data of each CPC. Meanwhile, the collected risk data are used to determine the fuzzy degrees of each CPC, the activated fuzzy If-Then rules, and the corresponding rule weights. Finally, the CPCs' membership degrees, the CPCs' weights, and If-Then rule weights are integrated together to acquire the HEP by defuzzification. In short, the proposed method changes the CPCs to ensure they are suitable, and then it innovatively uses risk data as the source to directly and indirectly determine the CPC's fuzzy degree, the CPC's importance weight, and the If-Then rule weight by fuzzy theory and GRA for collecting final HEP results. This method was tested on a selected chemical experiment, "preparation of active ferrous sulfide", which contains hazardous processes. Through the proposed method, the HEP of each procedure in the selected risky chemical experiment could be determined, and among the procedures, the highest HEP was 1.51 × 10−3. In addition, with the HEP results, several subtasks with a high risk of human error could be identified. The results matched the real situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of anthropogenic and natural factors in the trends and mechanisms of development at various topological levels is determined based on relevant information on the structure and dynamics of fluvial systems in the south of Eastern Siberia in various geodynamic settings. This article considers the current spatial and temporal dynamics of the hydrological conditions of the vast territory of the Angara River and its influence on channel deformations and the manifestation of dangerous processes. An analysis of fluctuations in the maximum runoff using differential integral curves resulted in the identification of six periods of water content according to the maximum annual discharges for the period spanning from the beginning of observations to 2020 for the rivers under consideration. The dynamics and intensity of manifestation of hydrological and geological hazardous processes are demonstrated using a series of studies conducted under various geodynamic conditions. Catastrophic floods brought on by enhanced cyclonic activity are accompanied by the destruction of the bank. The highest rate of bank erosion in the plains is 1.5 to 2 m per year, and for rivers in mountains and piedmonts it is 2 to 6 m per year. An analysis of the dynamics of the development of floodplain–channel complexes in the Upper Angara region makes it possible to distinguish two zones of actively developing floodplain–channel complexes: piedmont and estuarine, separated by a relatively stable plain zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article deals with the issues of the geodynamic evolution of the Kara–Barents Sea shelf and influence of structure-forming processes on the nature of relief formation. The aggregate data obtained allows us to assume that the relief of the western part of the Russian Arctic formed as a result of polycyclic processes of closing of the Proto-Atlantic, Paleoural, and Iapetus oceans. A systematic analysis of paleogeodynamic reconstructions of the evolution of the continental crust of the Arctic region makes it possible to identify with a high degree of reliability the spatiotemporal patterns of relief formation, predict areas of localization of hazardous phenomena on the seafloor, and substantiate geomorphological criteria for searching for hydrocarbon deposits in shallow bedding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lava plug in the crater of the Sarychev Peak volcano (Kuril Islands) was removed in June 2009 as a result of explosions that accompanied a strong eruption, and the crater-bottom elevation abruptly decreased thereafter. Based on satellite imagery and images taken during a helicopter overflight in 2016, the level of crater-bottom sinking was measured at about 190–220 m from the crater rim. The crater bottom had been stable up until autumn 2017, when it began to rise, as revealed from the satellite imagery. As of autumn 2019, the crater bottom has been uplifted by approximately 150 m. The crater volume filled during this rising is about 10 million m3. The cycles of subsidence and rising in the last 75 years were repeated three times with respect to every strong (considerable) eruption. The new period of rising probably indicates the preparation for a new, potentially dangerous eruptive event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Mountain glaciers currently exist in 18 mountainous regions of the continental part of Russia. They occupy a total area of about 3480 km2. Almost all the glaciers in these mountainous areas have receded over the past few decades. The process of glacier retreat leads to landscape change in the glacier zone and can also lead to increased risks of hazards and natural disasters. The existing research on the current state of glaciers and their changes helps us to understand the mechanisms of the changes and to improve forecasts and adaptation strategies. This article presents a review of mountain glacier change estimates in continental Russia over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The sources for the estimates include satellite imagery, topographic maps, field research results, and scientific publications. The results of our analysis demonstrate that changes in the main climatic factors, i.e., air temperature and precipitation, determine the general trend in glacier changes in Russia's mountainous regions. Glacier reductions for the second part of twentieth century range from 10.6% (Kamchatka) to 69% (the Koryak Highlands). The differences in the rate and the direction of glacier changes depend on local orographic and climatic features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A complex of prognostication models focused on its implementation in the control systems of hazardous industrial enterprises. Methods of prognostication of the emergencies on the basis of thermodynamic, linguistic and neural network concepts are considered. The results of the comparative analysis of these emergencies prognostication models are given for the extreme technological processes. Recommendations are given on the composite implementation of these models in the industrial systems of accident-free management. The composite model of prognostication and integrated criterion of accident-free management is offered as a functionality which represents the superposition of indicators of each model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Рассмотрена проблема создания единой системы мониторинга опасных природно-техногенных процессов и явлений.

Organizations often direct considerable attention toward the identification and assessment of the various risks associated with hazardous process operations, and as part of their risk control system they typically rely on written procedures for guiding workers in carrying out the necessary task activities. However, these procedures can, in and of themselves, serve as sources of risk, which strongly suggests the need for methods that could enable organizations to efficiently assess the risks potentially intrinsic to their written procedures. This paper focuses on the identification, understanding, and modeling of the risks potentially associated with written work procedures. The idea of controls within procedures and a taxonomy of procedures based on the nature of a procedure’s controls are first presented. This is followed by a systematic reappraisal of the risks resident in written procedures that are incurred through the processes of development and management of procedures by organizations. The focus then shifts to the implications for an organization’s risk control system of behavioral variability associated with carrying out procedures. This leads to the presentation of a proposed modeling framework intended for translation or adaptation by organizations as a practical means for assessing what is referred to as “procedure risk”—the risk resident in procedures. Key concepts that are emphasized in this framework are the value of a procedural control and the likelihood of failure of a procedural control. Guidance is provided concerning a possible way for instantiating the modeling framework through a case study involving space shuttle ground processing operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]