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This chapter introduces the topic of freight transport modelling in the urban context. Urban freight transport is typical in several aspects: the defragmentation of product flows, the use of modes, and the commodity mix. Freight traffic is also in competition for space with other traffic and users of the urban environment. Real-world applications of urban freight models are scarce because of a lack of data and methods to adequately simulate impacts of urban freight policies. However, recent applications of information and communications technology offer new opportunities for the development of urban freight transport models. At the same time, these developments are reshaping the scope of urban freight models more and more into tools for operational management. The aim of this chapter is to provide an overview of the key developments in urban freight modelling of the past decades, with a focus on the latest research and innovation directions. It will also introduce the subsequent chapters of this section that will focus on the modelling of the demand for freight services, microsimulation, and agent-based modelling, and the latest developments in freight trip generation models., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

The growth of e-commerce and omnichannel retailing has led to significant changes in urban logistics deliveries. In addition to the traditional delivery channels, new solutions have been introduced, such as click-and-collect, parcel locker delivery, crowdshipping, and on-site delivery. However, such solutions require seamless connections between different layers of the city logistics system. These connections form, in the Physical Internet terminology, a “hyperconnected city”. In this context, how do consumers make decisions about logistics services, either as prospective users or as suppliers of last mile logistics services? We argue that a thorough understanding of consumers’ decision-making about last mile services is a prerequisite for the effective exploration of future demand for these services and the design of transport policies. While there is abundant literature on new approaches of last mile logistics, a review of research on consumers’ decision-making and participation in such services is absent. This paper aims to provide such a review and, based on this, provides directions for future research. Based on the existing literature, we propose a conceptual framework that categorises decisions and system attributes affecting consumers’ decision-making. Highlights for future research include interaction between consumers’ demand and supply decisions, changes in consumer preferences, the importance of social networks, and the city-level impacts of hyperconnected last mile delivery., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

Crowdsourced shipping or crowdshipping is a promising solution to sustainable parcel delivery, owing to the potential to consolidate freight trips with preexisting passenger trips. Previous literature focuses on these consolidation benefits but does not address the possibility of new activity generation in crowdshipping. In this study, we investigate the willingness of private persons to accept shipments based on a newly generated home-based trip. We compare this to the choices of occasional carriers who build on the daily home–work commute to deliver parcels. Two stated preference experiments are conducted and a multinomial logit choice model and a latent class choice model are employed. These allow us to provide values of time of the occasional carriers, as an original contribution to the literature. The results show that commute-based carrier values of time are higher than those of home-based carriers. Concerning the trip generating power of crowdshipping, we find that low-income groups have a relatively high propensity to generate a home-based pickup and delivery trip. Finally, parcel lockers as delivery points positively influence acceptance of crowdshipping requests, as they allow for more flexibility in delivery times. Together, these results support the notion that crowdshipping can act as a potential trip generator in households., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

Crowdsourced shipping or crowdshipping is a promising contender for sustainable parcel delivery services due to the potential to consolidate freight trips with pre-existing passenger trips. However, the opportunity for private persons to act as occasional carrier can also generate new trips, which could then increase traffic volumes. Previous literature has focused on the consolidation case only, and has not addressed new activity generation in crowdshipping. In this study we investigate the willingness of private persons to accept shipments based on a newly generated home-based trip and compare this to choices of occasional carriers who had already planned their travel, in this case related to the daily commute. We conduct two stated preference experiments and apply a multinomial logit model to identify preferences. Additionally, a latent class choice model is utilized to explore the existence and effect of heterogeneity in preferences. The results show that commute-based and home-based trips have different VoT parameters and the former is higher than the latter. Parcel lockers as delivery points have a positive effect on acceptance since they allow for more flexibility in delivery times. The latent class model suggests that the distinction between low income and high-income groups is relevant; here, the low-income group has a lower value of time and is more willing to make a detour to execute the delivery. The study provides first quantitative evidence that crowdshipping can act as a potential trip generator in households and recommends that this is taken into account in passenger transportation models., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

Rijkswaterstaat gebruikt het goederenvervoermodel BasGoed om lange termijn prognoses te maken van het goederenvervoer. Economische verwachtingen spelen hierbij een belangrijke rol. Het model BasGoed begint dan ook met een module waarin de economische groei bepaald wordt en vervolgens vertaald wordt naar de hoeveelheid vervoerde goederen. De vorige versie van de economie module was verouderd. Deze paper beschrijft de nieuw ontwikkelde module op basis van multiregionale input-output analyses, aansluitend bij de manier waarop het Planbureau voor de leefomgeving economische analyses maakt. De werking van de module wordt toegelicht, en de eerste resultaten worden vergeleken met de uitkomsten van de oude module., Transport and Planning

Goederenvervoer is het transport gedeelte van het logistieke systeem: goederen worden van A naar B vervoerd. Een groot gedeelte is onderdeel van logistieke ketens. Waar data over goederenvervoer in toenemende mate beschikbaar is voor onderzoek en planningsdoeleinden, blijft de beschikbaarheid van logistieke data schaars. In deze bijdrage presenteren wij de resultaten van een data gedreven onderzoek waarbij ‘big’ tripdata van transporteurs zijn geanalyseerd op distributiestructuren. Uitdaging daarbij is de transport data te verrijken met logistieke informatie: vond deze rit plaats vanuit een multimodale terminal, een distributiecentra, of kwam deze vanaf een producent? Op de TU Delft hebben we een effectieve methode opgezet om structurele distributiepatronen te ontdekken, ondanks de data-inefficiënties. De resultaten geven een relevante inkijk in distributiestructuren voor verschillende segmenten in het goederenvervoer: informatie die tot nog toe nog ontbreekt., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

Understanding the logistic determinants of freight trips is an important goal in freight transport modeling. Freight shipments move between nodes in the supply chain for different logistic purposes, including production, storage, transshipment, and consumption. A key problem with data availability is that databases generally do not identify these purposes, given the commercial sensitivity of the data. In addition, including information on senders and receivers of the shipments is often prohibitively costly. Therefore, one of the challenges of transport data analysis is to identify freight trip purposes using data fusion, linking information about the main function of logistics nodes to trips in existing databases. This paper proposes a data fusion approach to enrich big truck shipment databases with firm registry data. We use the national freight shipment micro-database from the Netherlands which includes shipment, vehicle, and tour information. Although our presentation here uses formats and methods of accounting for freight data used in the Netherlands, it can be readily replicated for conditions in other countries, as long as similar data sets on shipment data and firm registry are available. The enriched, new database contains transport and firm data for more than 2 million observed trips with information on the vehicle used, shipments carried, and sender/receiver firm. An initial descriptive analysis provides unique empirical insights into the logistic determinants of freight trips. These include the share of national trips that use intermediate nodes, typical changes in shipment sizes, and the role of distribution centers for (de)consolidation of shipments., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

The fast growth of e-commerce in urban areas has led to a surge in last-mile transportation demand and an associated increase of external effects: congestion, noise and visual pollution. This paper analyses a new urban freight transport service that has a potential to reduce this footprint: crowdshipping. Crowdshipping is a service where a package is delivered via a traveller who is already making a personal trip for other purposes. The decision of whether or not to use crowdshipping is known to be subject to various service, time and price conditions, including trust in a correct delivery. The effect of trust has not been investigated explicitly, however. We conduct a stated choice experiment and estimate a hybrid choice model with trust as a situation-specific latent variable. The research design allows us to explore how the relevant attributes influence service adoption via trust. We find a significant influence of established choice attributes on service adoption, except for the delivery company’s reputation and the possibility of damage. In addition, all attributes except delivery time have a significant influence on trust. We conclude that trust has a partially mediating effect on the adoption of the service except delivery time, and a fully mediating effect on adoption via reputation and damage., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

Crowdshipping (CS) is an emerging form of freight transport that is expected to reduce the externalities of urban freight transport. The supply of CS services originates from people with an intention to travel, who can choose to engage in a parcel delivery service as incidental carrier. The popular expectation is that this consolidation of freight and passenger trips could save freight trips and thus alleviate urban transport congestion and environmental pollution. A key challenge in the prediction of CS service volumes and impacts, however, is to match existing service demand and supply. This has not yet been addressed in the literature with models that give an empirically realistic representation of individual decision-making. We approach this problem using a disaggregate activity-based models for urban passenger transport and freight transport. Allocation of parcels to travellers is done based on a simulated random utility discrete choice model. We present a first case study for the city of The Hague, The Netherlands, to illustrate empirically the model. Our findings suggest that CS could result in increased CO2 emissions and total vehicle distances travelled., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

Knowledge of the hierarchical organization of urban heavy truck flows is important for understanding the structure of urban freight system and underlying interactions dynamics, providing insights to assess and develop freight policies. The complexity and dynamic nature of urban freight system pose significant challenges in comprehensively capturing structured arrangement of heavy truck movements. In this paper, we uncover the hierarchical organization of urban heavy truck flows by using complex network theory. We use large-scale heavy truck GPS data and urban freight location point-of-interest (POI) data to construct urban heavy truck mobility networks, and detect their community structure. The empirical results suggest different sets of locations are closely linked to each other to form multiple clusters. By integrating the categories of locations, we reveal the cluster-specific industry concentration and industry-specific location roles, informing evidence-based policy formulation. To capture the interaction dynamics of locations, we develop a spatial network growth model that considers the spatial agglomeration of industrial clusters and interaction pattern of locations. The model provides a mathematical tool to simulate the formation process of real-world networks for logistics planning and management., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

Reducing emissions caused by urban freight transportation is an increasingly important policy objective for transportation planners around the world. New and innovative ways of data collection provide new possibilities to analyze these issues. In this paper we present MASS-GT, a new multi-agent simulation system for urban goods transport. The empirical basis is provided by an exceptionally large dataset of truck trip travel diaries for The Netherlands that was collected from transportation management systems using an automated data collection interface. The dataset is very dense and includes information on vehicles, routes, and shipments carried. The strategic part of the model simulates the formation of individual shipments based on logistic processes at a strategic level, such as sourcing, distribution channel choice and shipment size choice. At tactical level disaggregate choices are simulated for tour formation, vehicle type- and time of day choice, based on observed distributions. The multi-agent approach allows to implement heterogeneous preferences and thus differentiated responses to new policies. We present an application of the model to study the impacts of urban consolidation centers (UCC) and zero emission zones. The freight transportation volumes transported to these UCC and their impact on logistic indicators are analyzed. Simulation results show that vehicle kilometers travelled within the wider region increase with the introduction of UCC, and at the same time the efficiency of deliveries increases as well. Thus the model allows to study trade-offs between regional and local systems that emerge from different behavioural responses to policies., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

Het reduceren van de CO2 uitstoot van wegvervoer is een uitdagende opgave voor het bereiken van de klimaatdoelstellingen. In het 'Fit for 55' programma van de EC wordt een 55% reductie van de CO2 uitstoot in 2030 gehanteerd ten opzichte van de uitstoot in 1991. De transitie die moet plaatsvinden zal gefaciliteerd moeten worden door een combinatie van nieuwe oplossingen. Maar in hoeverre is dit doel haalbaar? Om de impact te toetsen passen we een gedesaggergeerd simulatie model toe om te verkennen welke emissiereductie haalbaar zijn als maatregelen worden gehanteerd. De decarbonisatie scenario's zijn gebaseerd op een verkenning van de literatuur naar mogelijke maatregelen om de emissies van het wegvervoer te reduceren., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

1. Overview and motivation The emergence of e-commerce in the past decade and the surging growth during the pandemic, partially at the cost of in-store shopping, have reinforced the need for a better representation of this type of consumer demand and its effects in urban transportation studies (Reiffer et al, 2021). Since this is a recent development, conventional passenger transport models only model the personal mobility for in-store shopping. Standard modelling tools for large-scale demand forecasts for online and in-store shopping are limited. A proper representation of this demand segment first of all requires an estimate of e-commerce demand, and second the simulation of the delivery of the orders. Jaller and Pahwa (2020) developed both an econometric MNL model for in-store and online shopping and applied it to a synthetic population to estimate externalities of the alternatives. The econometric model explains the preferences for type of shopping but not the total level of product consumption, and the delivery of online orders is estimated on aggregate statistics. Other disaggregate simulation studies only focus on e-commerce demand, without considering the trade-off between online versus in-store shopping, such as Cheng et al (2021). In effect, online ordering may reduce physical movements of people to stores, while increasing the delivery of orders to people’s home addresses. This shift is taking place for many consumer products and groceries as well. Weltevreden and Rotem-Minaldi (2007) show early evidence that e-commerce ordering in the Netherlands increases freight transport, while personal travel decreases marginally. On the side of e-commerce deliveries, the simulation of urban freight transport is a well-studied topic in recent literature (Mommens et al, 2021; Hörl and Puchinger, 2021; Reiffer et al, 2021). However, modelling the demand side of e-commerce is often still minimal. 2. Methodology, results and main contributions, Transport and Planning

1. Overview and motivation E-commerce is a rapidly developing segment within urban goods transportation. While currently making up only 5.5% of all kilometers driven by vans in the Netherlands (CBS, 2018), this segment is experiencing rapid growth. For example, in the Netherlands, the volume of parcel deliveries grew by 20% in 2018 (ACM, 2018). This growth is further accelerated by the current coronavirus pandemic. The increasing importance of this segment is not reflected yet in strategic models used in practice for transportation demand forecasting. Parcel deliveries are not modelled explicitly, which does not only prevent the model users from calculating effects of scenarios and policies related to e-commerce, but it also disregards the unique nature of this segment (e.g. specific depot locations, strong growth rates) and, therefore, leads to flawed reference forecasts of van traffic. In the scientific literature there are some first examples of simulation models for parcel deliveries (Sakai et al, 2020; Hörl & Puchinger, 2021; Llorca & Moeckel, 2021; Mommens et al., 2021; Reiffer et al., 2021). However, each of these examples lacks an empirical disaggregate demand model, focusses on one (part of a) city rather than a whole region, or focusses on one product/service segment rather than all parcel deliveries in a region. Moreover, little experience is gathered in applying such urban freight simulators for traffic forecasting. 2. Methodology, results and main contributions To combat these shortcomings of the state-of-practice freight models, we developed a module for last-mile parcel deliveries and used it to explore the impacts of different scenario assumptions regarding parcel demand and scheduling. The module consists of two sub-modules: the parcel demand sub-module and the parcel scheduling sub-module. The parcel demand sub-module calculates parcel demand based on the households and businesses in each zone. For parcels to hou, Transport and Planning

Het klimaatakkoord, milieu zones en zero emissie zones in steden en andere duurzame ontwikkelingen betekenen voor de logistieke sector dat de wereld veranderd. Zowel overheden als verladers en vervoerders bereiden zich voor op deze veranderingen. Prognoses en modelberekeningen kunnen hulp bieden bij het in kaart brengen van de te verwachte effecten van deze ontwikkelingen op vervoerspatronen, verkeersprestaties en emissies. Op basis van de aan de TU Delft ontwikkelde Tactical Freight Simulator wordt het goederenvervoermodel BasGoed uitgebreid met een logistieke module waarbij de mogelijke impact van Zero Emissie Zones geprognosticeerd kan worden. Eerste resultaten tonen aan dat het invoeren van ZEZ effect heeft op zowel de uitstoot als de verkeersprestaties. De zones zorgen voor het gebruik van duurzamere voertuigtypes, waardoor er minder uitstoot is. De distributiecentra aan de rand van de ZEZ zorgen ook voor een andere inrichting van de logistieke processen. Hierdoor wordt de verkeersprestatie beïnvloed. De emissies binnen de ZEZ nemen duidelijk af, terwijl op de omliggende wegen een gemengd beeld optreedt: door schonere voertuigen nemen de emissies af, maar doordat er meer kilometers gemaakt worden om bij de distributiecentra te komen nemen de emissies toe. Afhankelijk van de locatie verschilt het welke van deze effecten de overhand heeft. Doorontwikkeling van het model is nodig om het als volwaardige module op te nemen in het goederenvervoermodel BasGoed. Uiteindelijk zal het model dan gebruikt kunnen worden om inzicht te geven in effecten van verschillende maatregelen rondom de ZEZ., Transport and Planning

In 2017, the newly installed Dutch government announced in its coalition agreement to introduce a distancebased heavy goods vehicle charge, similar to the charges levied in other European countries. To study the possible transport impacts, we applied available models and methods in preparation for the introduction of this truck charge in the Netherlands in 2023, in order to present decision information to the government on different aspects of the charge. In this paper we present the analysis of different implementation scenarios for a distancebased truck charge. Different behavioural responses can be expected in terms of freight transport demand, mode choice, logistic efficiency, and route choice. Many studies however lack sufficient detail to properly describe the impact of road charges for HGV on OD flows and freight traffic. In our contribution we explore the bandwidth of impacts of different pricing schemes, using strategic transport models for freight demand and traffic assignment, with detailed modal split and route choice models, ensuring a proper representation of generalsed transport costs. We explain how we use available transport models in an overarching analytical framework to make a comprehensive impact assessment of the different responses, and to decompose the impacts on the different responses. Final impacts are quantified in terms of freight demand (spatial pattern of transport flows), modal split and traffic flows (route choice, and congestion). Depending on the pricing scenario the tonne kilometres decrease by 0.4%–4.8% on average. The modal shift impacts are stronger on longer transport distances: this is explained both by the larger impact of a distance-based charge on these routes, and by higher substitution possibilities to barge or rail. The results indicate that the overall impacts of the introduction of the different charging alternatives are moderate. However, the network impacts at local level can be substantial due to t, Transport and Planning

Reducing emissions caused by urban freight transportation is an increasingly important policy objective for transportation planners around the world. New and innovative ways of data collection provide new possibilities to analyze these issues. In this paper we present MASS-GT, a new multi-agent simulation system for urban goods transport. The empirical basis is provided by an exceptionally large dataset of truck trip travel diaries for The Netherlands that was collected from transportation management systems using an automated data collection interface. The dataset is very dense and includes information on vehicles, routes, and shipments carried. The strategic part of the model simulates the formation of individual shipments based on logistic processes at a strategic level, such as sourcing, distribution channel choice and shipment size choice. At tactical level disaggregate choices are simulated for tour formation, vehicle type- and time of day choice, based on observed distributions. The multi-agent approach allows to implement heterogeneous preferences and thus differentiated responses to new policies. We present an application of the model to study the impacts of urban consolidation centers (UCC) and zero emission zones. The freight transportation volumes transported to these UCC and their impact on logistic indicators are analyzed. Simulation results show that vehicle kilometers travelled within the wider region increase with the introduction of UCC, and at the same time the efficiency of deliveries increases as well. Thus the model allows to study trade-offs between regional and local systems that emerge from different behavioural responses to policies., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

As part of a broader vision for emission-free city logistics, the city of Rotterdam plans to introduce a zero-emission zone in combination with urban consolidation centers (UCCs) on the outskirts of the city to generate a shift to zero-emission vehicles. For the design of this zero-emission zone, several research questions arise that require a systematic analysis of the impacts of the transition scenarios on freight demand patterns, the use and market shares of new (zero-emission) vehicles, and the impacts of truck flow and emissions. As a case study, we implemented heterogenous transition scenarios for each logistic segment into the Tactical Freight Simulator from the HARMONY project and analyzed the systemwide impacts. This model is multiagent, empirical, and shipment based and simulates long-term tactical choices (distribution channel choice, shipment size and vehicle type choice, sourcing) and short-term tactical choices (tour formation, delivery times). Results showed that the impact of UCCs is not trivial: we observed a small increase in vehicle kilometers traveled overall of +0.25%, which can be attributed to the rerouting of shipments through the UCCs. Calculations confirmed that emissions reduced dramatically, by 90%, inside the zero-emission zone. At the city scale this corresponds to a reduction of almost 10%, as most freightrelated traffic is generated by the port and involves long-haul heavy goods vehicle transport that does not enter the city center. At a regional level, impact reduction was very small. More measures are needed if more ambitious reductions in emissions are to be achieved., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

As part of a broader vision for emission-free city logistics, the city of Rotterdam plans to introduce a zero-emission zone in combination with urban consolidation centers (UCCs) on the outskirts of the city to generate a shift to zero-emission vehicles. For the design of this zero-emission zone, several research questions arise that require a systematic analysis of the impacts of the transition scenarios on freight demand patterns, the use and market shares of new (zero-emission) vehicles, and the impacts of truck flow and emissions. As a case study, we implemented heterogenous transition scenarios for each logistic segment into the Tactical Freight Simulator from the HARMONY project and analyzed the systemwide impacts. This model is multiagent, empirical, and shipment based and simulates long-term tactical choices (distribution channel choice, shipment size and vehicle type choice, sourcing) and short-term tactical choices (tour formation, delivery times). Results showed that the impact of UCCs is not trivial: we observed a small increase in vehicle kilometers traveled overall of +0.25%, which can be attributed to the rerouting of shipments through the UCCs. Calculations confirmed that emissions reduced dramatically, by 90%, inside the zero-emission zone. At the city scale this corresponds to a reduction of almost 10%, as most freightrelated traffic is generated by the port and involves long-haul heavy goods vehicle transport that does not enter the city center. At a regional level, impact reduction was very small. More measures are needed if more ambitious reductions in emissions are to be achieved., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

In this paper we present a methodology to more accurately calculate emissions in regional freight transportation models by taking the loading rate of vehicles into account in the emission factors. This is done by incorporating the shipment-based demand data from a multi-agent simulation framework into the route assignment. In a case study we show that disregarding the vehicle loading rate can lead to underestimations of the amount of pollutant gasses. The application of this methodology in combination with a multi-agent simulation model allows to simulate impacts of changes in logistics behavior, such as vehicle type use or the scheduling of round tours, on emissions more accurately., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

A transition from the use of conventional energy carriers to more sustainable alternatives is an important policy objective to mitigate the impact of our energy consumption on earth’s climate. This transition involves changes in the use of commodities in freight transport. This paper addresses how we improved the strategic freight transport model BasGoed for the Netherlands to better forecast the impact of energy transition scenarios on freight transport demand. BasGoed is developed as a tool for supporting policy decisions and produces forecasts for road, rail, barge and sea shipping. These forecasts are inputs for sectoral models of road, rail and barge transport. Energy carriers such as coal, lignite, crude oil and fossil fuels make up for a substantial part of all freight transport in the Netherlands. The increase or decline in transport demand for these commodities is closely correlated to the speed of the energy transition. The uncertainty in future growth levels of energy carriers is one of the larger uncertainties in forecasting future freight demands, especially for rail and barge transport because of high market-shares for energy carriers. In De Bok et al. (2018a) a broad range of sensitivity runs for BasGoed is presented. The results showed that the assumptions in the energy transition scenario have the biggest impact on forecasted freight transport demand. The strategic transport model BasGoed has been improved to better capture the outcomes of the energy transition to be able to assess policy measures related to reducing CO2 emissions. The global mix of energy carriers in energy production are our starting point in the input scenario. These global targets are translated into changes in economic structure (production and consumption of commodities by economic sector) using the outcomes of Energy System Simulation model (ENSYSI). This model is developed by the Dutch Environmental assessment agency (PBL) and provides quantitati, Transport and Planning

An increasing amount of research is dedicated to the consideration of tour formation in freight transportation demand models. While empirical tour formation models so far have been starting from limiting assumptions about the resulting trips, we develop a generalized shipment-based model. We formulate a random utility model embedded in an iterative algorithm to construct tours through the incremental allocation of shipments. It considers different objectives and constraints and acknowledges the difference between commodity, vehicle and location types. Parameters are estimated on a large and comprehensive shipment database. The model reproduces observed tour statistics well for the given set of shipments., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

In this paper we explore the possible impacts of a distance- and emission-class based truck charge in The Netherlands. Earlier studies suggest that shifts may occur towards heavy vehicles, due to the relative inefficiency of lighter vehicles types. However, these studies have not taken into account the effects of changes in shipment size, as a response to pricing measures. Also, these studies have not considered emission-class dependent charges. Thirdly, no empirical disaggregate models or studies are available for the Netherlands for this problem. We present a discrete choice model for the joint choice of vehicle type and shipment size, estimated on a large dataset of disaggregate carrier freight trip data. The model explains variations in vehicle type choice for different transport purposes and contexts (e.g. commodity type, long-haul, urban transport, to/from logistic nodes). The analysis of emission based truck charging schemes shows that substitution towards low emission vehicles can be expected within the same vehicle class. It is also not likely that the truck charge will lead to a significant increase of shipment sizes or to substitution between vehicle types: a distance based truck charge increases transport costs but inventory costs restrain a shift to larger shipment sizes. This result points to a limited capability of supply chains to absorb transport cost increases by logistics re-organisation., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

In this paper we present a methodology to more accurately calculate emissions in regional freight transportation models by taking the loading rate of vehicles into account in the emission factors. This is done by incorporating the shipment-based demand data from a multi-agent simulation framework into the route assignment. In a case study we show that disregarding the vehicle loading rate can lead to underestimations of the amount of pollutant gasses. The application of this methodology in combination with a multi-agent simulation model allows to simulate impacts of changes in logistics behavior, such as vehicle type use or the scheduling of round tours, on emissions more accurately., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

A transition from the use of conventional energy carriers to more sustainable alternatives is an important policy objective to mitigate the impact of our energy consumption on earth’s climate. This transition involves changes in the use of commodities in freight transport. This paper addresses how we improved the strategic freight transport model BasGoed for the Netherlands to better forecast the impact of energy transition scenarios on freight transport demand. BasGoed is developed as a tool for supporting policy decisions and produces forecasts for road, rail, barge and sea shipping. These forecasts are inputs for sectoral models of road, rail and barge transport. Energy carriers such as coal, lignite, crude oil and fossil fuels make up for a substantial part of all freight transport in the Netherlands. The increase or decline in transport demand for these commodities is closely correlated to the speed of the energy transition. The uncertainty in future growth levels of energy carriers is one of the larger uncertainties in forecasting future freight demands, especially for rail and barge transport because of high market-shares for energy carriers. In De Bok et al. (2018a) a broad range of sensitivity runs for BasGoed is presented. The results showed that the assumptions in the energy transition scenario have the biggest impact on forecasted freight transport demand. The strategic transport model BasGoed has been improved to better capture the outcomes of the energy transition to be able to assess policy measures related to reducing CO2 emissions. The global mix of energy carriers in energy production are our starting point in the input scenario. These global targets are translated into changes in economic structure (production and consumption of commodities by economic sector) using the outcomes of Energy System Simulation model (ENSYSI). This model is developed by the Dutch Environmental assessment agency (PBL) and provides quantitati, Transport and Planning

An increasing amount of research is dedicated to the consideration of tour formation in freight transportation demand models. While empirical tour formation models so far have been starting from limiting assumptions about the resulting trips, we develop a generalized shipment-based model. We formulate a random utility model embedded in an iterative algorithm to construct tours through the incremental allocation of shipments. It considers different objectives and constraints and acknowledges the difference between commodity, vehicle and location types. Parameters are estimated on a large and comprehensive shipment database. The model reproduces observed tour statistics well for the given set of shipments., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

In this paper we explore the possible impacts of a distance- and emission-class based truck charge in The Netherlands. Earlier studies suggest that shifts may occur towards heavy vehicles, due to the relative inefficiency of lighter vehicles types. However, these studies have not taken into account the effects of changes in shipment size, as a response to pricing measures. Also, these studies have not considered emission-class dependent charges. Thirdly, no empirical disaggregate models or studies are available for the Netherlands for this problem. We present a discrete choice model for the joint choice of vehicle type and shipment size, estimated on a large dataset of disaggregate carrier freight trip data. The model explains variations in vehicle type choice for different transport purposes and contexts (e.g. commodity type, long-haul, urban transport, to/from logistic nodes). The analysis of emission based truck charging schemes shows that substitution towards low emission vehicles can be expected within the same vehicle class. It is also not likely that the truck charge will lead to a significant increase of shipment sizes or to substitution between vehicle types: a distance based truck charge increases transport costs but inventory costs restrain a shift to larger shipment sizes. This result points to a limited capability of supply chains to absorb transport cost increases by logistics re-organisation., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

Strategic freight transport models can be used for a quantitative analysis of long term forecasts. This paper discusses an analysis of the bandwidth of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with the strategic freight transport model ‘BasGoed’. This model was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and available transport data. Starting point for the analysis are the long-term scenarios for The Netherlands developed recently by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (WLO scenarios: Future outlook on welfare, prosperity and the human environment). The scenarios describe two base cases: The High and Low scenario. Both scenarios include a consistent set of assumptions on economic development (domestic growth by industry sector and international trade), infrastructure development, fuel prices, and logistic efficiency. The bandwidth of freight forecasts is further explored in five distinctive sensitivity analyses: different development in fuel prices, energy markets, CO2-pricing, dematerialization and modal shift in the port of Rotterdam. The sensitivity analysis provides more insight in the level of importance of each scenario assumption and it can be useful in estimating a bandwidth for freight transport demand. This is valuable in providing insight in the robustness of the freight transport forecasts for policy studies., Accepted Author Manuscript, Transport and Planning

Urban planners face a few challenges in making urban freight transport more sustainable: reduce urban congestion, provide reliable delivery windows, decrease logistic costs, reduce emissions, improve safety. New data may provide a key in tackling these issues. This paper presents an agent-based urban freight modeling framework: MASS-GT. Objective of the project is to develop a comprehensive simulation framework that describes logistic decision making in the context of urban transport planning. Empirical basis is provided by a large dataset with observed freight transport data for The Netherlands. Part of the data has been collected using an automated procedure to report complete freight trip patterns from the transport management system. This provides more dense and complete data compared to conventional internet surveys. The paper describes the design principles for agents, markets and logistic decisions. Furthermore we elaborate on the incremental development path of building a comprehensive agent-based simulation system. We describe the first baseline prototype of the agent based modeling framework that simulates all urban freight transport patterns for an urban area, in the case the agglomeration of Rotterdam. This baseline model applies a data driven simulation approach; future work will consists of further improving this framework with the implementation of discrete choice models for logistic decisions., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

De ontwikkeling van een agent-gebaseerd simulatiemodel voor goederenvervoer is complex en vraagt veel data. In deze bijdrage beschrijven we de incrementele ontwikkeling van een agent-gebaseerd simulatiemodel voor goederenvervoer, waarin een zendingen-gebaseerde aanpak gevolgd wordt en het gedrag van individuele bedrijven gesimuleerd wordt. Kenmerkend voor de aanpak is het gebruik van een nieuwe gedetailleerde dataverzameling voor wegvervoer (XML-bestanden). Om de complexiteit van het simulatieraamwerk te beheersen wordt een incrementele ontwikkeling gevolgd. In deze bijdrage is het eerste werkende prototype van het model beschreven: deze is uitgewerkt voor al het vrachtverkeer van en naar Rotterdam. De uitkomsten van dit prototype illustreert de beoogde aanpak en kunnen al bruikbaar zijn als een gedetailleerd en representatief beeld van het vrachtverkeer in het studiegebied. In de volgende versies van het model zullen logistieke keuzes aan het model worden toegevoegd, en stapsgewijs de dimensies worden uitgebreid: er worden nieuwe locatiekenmerken toegevoegd voor logistieke knopen, het studiegebied gaat worden vergroot en de agent-rollen worden uitgebreid met logistieke dienstverleners en eigen vervoerders., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

Tourformatie is kenmerkend aan goederenwegvervoer, niet zelden worden meerdere zendingen in een rit vervoerd. Toch wordt dit aspect vaak over het hoofd gezien in goederenvervoermodellen. Wanneer tourformatie wel wordt toegepast, dan worden vaak geen zendingen gemodelleerd, is het modelgedrag niet gebaseerd op empirische data, of wordt slechts een klein segment van goederenvervoer gemodelleerd. In deze paper beschrijven we een tourformatie algoritme voor goederenwegvervoer binnen Nederland. Dit algoritme wijst zendingen toe aan ritten. Twee probabilistische keuzestappen in dit algoritme zijn geschat op empirische data over Nederlandse beroepsvervoerders. Relevante strategieën en randvoorwaarden in tourformatie komen terug in dit algoritme. Daarnaast worden verschillen in tourformatie voor diverse locaties, goederensoorten, en voertuigtypen overwogen. Zo worden op goederenoverslagplaatsen meestal ritten met een enkele zending gevormd, terwijl vanaf distributiecentra vaker ritten met meerdere zendingen voorkomen. Toepassing van het algoritme laat zien dat geobserveerde ritpatronen uitstekend gereproduceerd worden., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

Strategic freight transport models can be used for a quantitative analysis of long term forecasts. This paper discusses an analysis of the bandwidth of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with the strategic freight transport model ‘BasGoed’. This model was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and available transport data. Starting point for the analysis are the long-term scenarios for The Netherlands developed recently by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (WLO scenarios: Future outlook on welfare, prosperity and the human environment). The scenarios describe two base cases: The High and Low scenario. Both scenarios include a consistent set of assumptions on economic development (domestic growth by industry sector and international trade), infrastructure development, fuel prices, and logistic efficiency. The bandwidth of freight forecasts is further explored in five distinctive sensitivity analyses: different development in fuel prices, energy markets, CO2-pricing, dematerialization and modal shift in the port of Rotterdam. The sensitivity analysis provides more insight in the level of importance of each scenario assumption and it can be useful in estimating a bandwidth for freight transport demand. This is valuable in providing insight in the robustness of the freight transport forecasts for policy studies., Accepted Author Manuscript, Transport and Planning

Urban planners face a few challenges in making urban freight transport more sustainable: reduce urban congestion, provide reliable delivery windows, decrease logistic costs, reduce emissions, improve safety. New data may provide a key in tackling these issues. This paper presents an agent-based urban freight modeling framework: MASS-GT. Objective of the project is to develop a comprehensive simulation framework that describes logistic decision making in the context of urban transport planning. Empirical basis is provided by a large dataset with observed freight transport data for The Netherlands. Part of the data has been collected using an automated procedure to report complete freight trip patterns from the transport management system. This provides more dense and complete data compared to conventional internet surveys. The paper describes the design principles for agents, markets and logistic decisions. Furthermore we elaborate on the incremental development path of building a comprehensive agent-based simulation system. We describe the first baseline prototype of the agent based modeling framework that simulates all urban freight transport patterns for an urban area, in the case the agglomeration of Rotterdam. This baseline model applies a data driven simulation approach; future work will consists of further improving this framework with the implementation of discrete choice models for logistic decisions., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

De ontwikkeling van een agent-gebaseerd simulatiemodel voor goederenvervoer is complex en vraagt veel data. In deze bijdrage beschrijven we de incrementele ontwikkeling van een agent-gebaseerd simulatiemodel voor goederenvervoer, waarin een zendingen-gebaseerde aanpak gevolgd wordt en het gedrag van individuele bedrijven gesimuleerd wordt. Kenmerkend voor de aanpak is het gebruik van een nieuwe gedetailleerde dataverzameling voor wegvervoer (XML-bestanden). Om de complexiteit van het simulatieraamwerk te beheersen wordt een incrementele ontwikkeling gevolgd. In deze bijdrage is het eerste werkende prototype van het model beschreven: deze is uitgewerkt voor al het vrachtverkeer van en naar Rotterdam. De uitkomsten van dit prototype illustreert de beoogde aanpak en kunnen al bruikbaar zijn als een gedetailleerd en representatief beeld van het vrachtverkeer in het studiegebied. In de volgende versies van het model zullen logistieke keuzes aan het model worden toegevoegd, en stapsgewijs de dimensies worden uitgebreid: er worden nieuwe locatiekenmerken toegevoegd voor logistieke knopen, het studiegebied gaat worden vergroot en de agent-rollen worden uitgebreid met logistieke dienstverleners en eigen vervoerders., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

Tourformatie is kenmerkend aan goederenwegvervoer, niet zelden worden meerdere zendingen in een rit vervoerd. Toch wordt dit aspect vaak over het hoofd gezien in goederenvervoermodellen. Wanneer tourformatie wel wordt toegepast, dan worden vaak geen zendingen gemodelleerd, is het modelgedrag niet gebaseerd op empirische data, of wordt slechts een klein segment van goederenvervoer gemodelleerd. In deze paper beschrijven we een tourformatie algoritme voor goederenwegvervoer binnen Nederland. Dit algoritme wijst zendingen toe aan ritten. Twee probabilistische keuzestappen in dit algoritme zijn geschat op empirische data over Nederlandse beroepsvervoerders. Relevante strategieën en randvoorwaarden in tourformatie komen terug in dit algoritme. Daarnaast worden verschillen in tourformatie voor diverse locaties, goederensoorten, en voertuigtypen overwogen. Zo worden op goederenoverslagplaatsen meestal ritten met een enkele zending gevormd, terwijl vanaf distributiecentra vaker ritten met meerdere zendingen voorkomen. Toepassing van het algoritme laat zien dat geobserveerde ritpatronen uitstekend gereproduceerd worden., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

A large part of freight transport movements are part of a multimodal transport chain, in particular for port-related containerized transport flows. Because data of multimodal transports are unavailable it is challenging to develop a multimodal transport chain models. This paper describes the development of a new module for multimodal transport chains for modelling container transport within the Dutch strategic freight transport model “BasGoed”. The choice model distinguishes unimodal, bi-modal or tri-modal transport chains, depending on whether the transport chain is port-related. A direct road chain is available between each production and consumption combination; direct barge or rail transport is only available between seaports. A route enumeration module generates a choice set for each observed uni- or multimodal container transport. Since no directly observed PC data are available, a synthetic dataset was constructed with container flows between locations of production and consumption, using uni-modal observed transport data. Main assumption is that each container transported by rail or barge requires a road leg at the side of destination and/or origin, to complete the multimodal transport chain. Discrete choice models were estimated with different model structures. The best choice model that was found was a multinomial logit model, segmented by port dependency. The results show that a choice model can be estimated with significant parameters, and with plausible model sensitivities., Transport and Planning, Transport and Logistics

This paper discusses an analysis of the bandwidth of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with the strategic freight transport model ‘BasGoed’. The strategic freight transport model Basgoed was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the basic needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and available transport data. Starting point for the analysis are the recent long term scenarios for the Netherlands of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (WLO scenarios: Future outlook on welfare, prosperity and the human environment). These scenarios describe two base cases: the High and Low scenario. Both scenarios include a consistent set of assumptions on economic development (domestic growth by industry sector and international trade), infrastructure development, fuel prices, and logistic efficiency. The bandwidth of freight forecasts is further explored in five distinctive sensitivity analyses: different development in fuel prices, energy markets, CO2-pricing, dematerialization and modal shift in the port of Rotterdam., Transport and Planning

This paper discusses an analysis of the bandwidth of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with the strategic freight transport model ‘BasGoed’. The strategic freight transport model Basgoed was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the basic needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and available transport data. Starting point for the analysis are the recent long term scenarios for the Netherlands of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (WLO scenarios: Future outlook on welfare, prosperity and the human environment). These scenarios describe two base cases: the High and Low scenario. Both scenarios include a consistent set of assumptions on economic development (domestic growth by industry sector and international trade), infrastructure development, fuel prices, and logistic efficiency. The bandwidth of freight forecasts is further explored in five distinctive sensitivity analyses: different development in fuel prices, energy markets, CO2-pricing, dematerialization and modal shift in the port of Rotterdam., Transport and Planning

not available, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

not available, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Transport & Planning, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Transport & Planning, Civil Engineering and Geosciences