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This paper investigates the deleveraging process in three neighboring countries: Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary. Prior to the economic crisis of 2008 all three countries have experienced solid rates of economic growth, economic stability, but also fast rise of foreign debt. After 2008 all three countries are faced with a prolonged recession and without long term sustainable sources of growth. This paper looks at the effects of capital flow into three economies, determines the reasons for the increase in foreign debt and investigates the policy response. Paper finds that each of the three countries had different reason for the increase in foreign debt, but the economic effects are the same: prolonged macroeconomic instability and recession. In order to cover both economic theory and real economic effects authors use a modified version of the RBC model with soft budget constraint and free capital flows. The model does to some extent explain the effects leveraging process has had on the three economies. In the end paper investigates what was the role of the central bank in controlling the increase in foreign debt and concludes the role of central bank has to be augmented for control of capital flows in order to avoid crisis like the one started in 2008.

The paper analyses the new measure implemented by Croatian national bank (CNB). The measure is a decrease in the reserve requirement, but the actual release of funds is contingent on increase in lending to firms. This new measure is significant because for the first time in Croatia there is a measure whose purpose is to affect specifically credit policy of the banks. Although this new measure has good intentions it does not solve the problem of why highly liquid banking system in Croatia is not willing to increase lending. The reason for lack of credit growth lies in two separate problems. The first problem is the willingness of banks to have more credit risk and the second problem is the way monetary policy is conducted in Croatia.

Modernizacija poslovanja in zmanjševanje stroškov na vseh področjih je za podjetja dandanes nujen proces. Uporaba različnih informacijskih rešitev je v strmem porastu, saj si podjetja želijo organizirano in pregledno poslovanje, ki bo optimiziralo njihovo delovanje, zmanjšalo nepotrebne stroške, posledično povečalo njihov dobiček in s tem pripomoglo k njihovi uspešni rasti ter nadaljnjemu uspešnemu razvoju. Tudi javni zavodi morajo stremeti k učinkovitejšemu in racionalnejšemu poslovanju. V informatiki so postali vedno pomembnejši elementi: hitrost, varnost, delo od doma, cena. V teoretičnem delu diplomske naloge smo definirali osnovne pojme, virtualizacijo, tipe virtualizacije, ponudnike virtualizacije, njeno zgodovino in možnosti implementacije virtualizacije. V empiričnem delu diplomske naloge smo predstavili Univerzitetni klinični center Maribor, trenutno stanje strežniškega prostora in možnosti vzpostavitve virtualizacije. Na podlagi TCO in ROI kazalnikov smo dokazali, da je virtualizacija smotrna rešitev za zamenjavo starih in odsluženih strežnikov v Univerzitetnem kliničnem centru Maribor. The modernisation of businesses and reducing costs in all areas are necessary processes in companies nowadays. The use of various IT solutions is sharply increasing, since the companies aim for organised and transparent functioning that would optimise their performance, cut down unnecessary costs and consequently increase their profit, therefore contributing to the growth of the company and further successful development. Similarly, public institutions need to strive for more effective and rational functioning. Speed, security, working from home and price are becoming more and more important in informatics. In the theoretical part of the thesis, the basic terms, virtualization, types of virtualization, virtualization providers, its history and the possibilities for implementing virtualization are defined. In the empirical part of the thesis, the University Medical Centre Maribor, its current state of server space and the possibilities for setting up virtualization are presented. On the basis of TCO and ROI indicators, virtualization has proven to be a suitable solution for the replacement of old and disused servers in the University Medical Centre Maribor

Upravljanje s terjatvami je pomemben proces v vsakem podjetju, saj vpliva na likvidnost podjetja. Proces upravljanja s terjatvami je v vsakem podjetju zastavljen nekoliko drugače in je odvisen od značilnosti podjetja in okolja, v katerem to podjetje posluje. Zagotavljanje poplačila terjatev je zmeraj veljalo za občutljivo opravilo, pri katerem so potrebna posebna znanja za doseganje želenih rezultatov. V nalogi sem osvetlila postopek upravljanja s terjatvami v dveh podjetjih, ki poslujeta v enakem poslovnem okolju, vendar imata različen pristop k reševanju problema. Predstavljeni so finančni učinki postopkov upravljanja s terjatvami in njihove posledice na likvidnost obeh podjetij. Problem upravljanja s terjatvami vpliva na več področij poslovanja v podjetju, saj ima vpliv na odnose s kupci, posledično tudi na odnose z dobavitelji in druga področja poslovanja. Posledice postopka upravljanja s terjatvami so težje merljive kot učinki, ki jih ima na finančno sliko v podjetju. Management of claims operation is an important process in every company due to its influence on liquidity. Management of claims operations is differnet in every company and depends on characteristics of business environment in which that company operates. Ensuring of debt recovery has always been considered a very delicate task which requires special knowledgement for acheaving desired results. In the research a debt recovery process is compared in two companies that operate in the same bussiness environment, but have different aproach to solving the problem. Financial effects and the consequences of these processes on liquidity are shown for both comapanies. The problem of claims management opreation effects not only financial area, but several other business areas of a company. It has an impact on the relations with customers, consequently relations with suppliers and many other areas of which the effects are more difficult to measure.

Namen magistrske naloge je bil preučiti dejavnike, ki vplivajo na število poslovnih enot banke, predlagati nove poslovne modele, ki vsebujejo nove pristope pri upravljanju s tržnimi potmi banke za doseganje večje učinkovitosti poslovanja, boljše uporabniško izkušnjo in višjo kvaliteto storitev. V teoretičnem delu magistrske naloge smo s pomočjo literature in obravnavanih raziskav opredelili tržne poti, prikazali njihov razvoj in trenutne trende. Pokazali smo vpliv nebančnega sektorja na razvoj finančne tehnologije kot nevarnost bankam. V raziskovalnem delu smo analizirali gibanje števila poslovalnic in dokazali vpliv rasti uporabe mobilne in internetnega bančništva na zmanjšanje števila poslovnih enot. V nadaljevanju smo opredelili različne poslovne modele in izračunali prihranke ob spremembi tradicionalnega poslovnega modela in migraciji rutinskih transakcij na mobilno in internetno bančništvo. V zadnjem delu raziskovalnega dela smo na podlagi primerjave anket obravnavanih avtorjev pokazali, da je poslovna enota še vedno pomembna v strategiji banke. Rezultati in dognanja magistrske naloge bi morali pomagati bankam opredeliti strategijo bodoče integracije digitalnih kanalov s poslovno enoto, kot del vse-kanalno strategije upravljanja s tržnimi potmi ter definirati stanje in potrebo po spremembi poslovnih modelov bančnih poslovalnic v poslovni mreži banke z namenom doseganja večje učinkovitosti in boljše uporabniške izkušnje. The purpose of the master's thesis was to examine the factors that influence the number of bank branches, propose new business models incorporating new approaches in the management of the distribution channels of the bank in order to achieve greater operational efficiency, better user experience and higher quality of services. In theoretical part of the master's thesis we identified distribution channels, shown their development and current trends with the help of literature and examined analysis by various authors. We have shown the impact of non-banking financial sector in the development of financial technology as a threat to banks. In research, we analyzed the changes in the number of branches and proved the impact of growth in the use of mobile and internet banking on branch number reduction. Further on, we have identified a variety of business models and calculated savings if changing the traditional business model and savings if migration of routine transactions to the mobile and internet banking occurs. In the last part of the research, based on a comparison of surveys, we showed that the bank branch is still important in the strategy of the bank. The results and findings of the thesis should help banks define the strategy of the future integration of digital channels with the branches as part of an omni-channel approach to bank channel management and define the status and need of change of the current business models of branches in the bank’s branch network with the purpose of achieving greater efficiency and better user experience.

Po sesutju nepremičninskega trga v Združenih državah Amerike v letu 2007, propadu investicijske banke Lehman Brothers, je po začetnem zanikanju tla pod nogami spodneslo veliki večini finančnega sektorja v Evropi, z manjšim zamikom pa tudi v državah JV Evrope. Ni bilo dovolj, da je Srbija komaj zlezla iz recesije in okusila sadove zahodnega kapitalizma, že je bila v novi recesiji. Banke so tako rekoč čez noč prenehale posojati denar, veliki bančni sistemi so se znašli v hudih težavah in tako projekti niso imeli prihodnosti. Veliko podjetij, ki so se ukvarjala z razvojem nepremičninskih projektov (angl. Developer), in investitorjev je bilo pred velikim izzivom, tj. kako nadaljevati projekte. Klasični načini izvajanja projekta z dolžniškim virom financiranja in le majhno lastno udeležbo niso dobili več podpore v bankah. Veliko projektov je bilo že pripravljenih na izvedbo, vendar jih zaradi težav s financiranjem niso mogli nadaljevati. Velike trgovske verige so ravno v času pred nastopom finančne krize preoblikovale svoje modele financiranja naložb iz lastnih v dolgoročne, najemne. Ker je padec povpraševanja v trgovskem sektorju nastopil nekoliko pozneje in v bistveno blažji obliki, so velike trgovske verige pritiskale na investitorje in podjetja za razvoj projektov. Tako so se razvili in oblikovali novi modeli financiranja investicijskih/nepremičninskih projektov, ki jih predstavljamo v magistrskem delu. V teoretičnem delu se osredinjamo na mednarodne finance in vzroke mednarodnega gibanja kapitala, v raziskavi oblikujemo modele financiranja v času globalne finančne krize. Na novo opredeljujemo dejavnike tveganja in preverjamo, kaj se je v času od leta 2009 do leta 2014 dogajalo na srbskem trgu trgovskih nepremičnin. Raziskovalni problem, ki se ga lotevamo v magistrskem delu, je, kako in na kak način zagotoviti vire financiranja za mednarodne investicijske/nepremičninske projekte v času globalne finančne krize s poudarkom na komercialnih projektih (trgovine, trgovska središča) na trgu Republike Srbije, ki spada v območje trgov JV Evrope. Raziskavo smo začeli izvajati v letu 2010 in potem več let spremljali gospodarsko okolje, v katerem so se razvijali nepremičninski projekti. Ugotovili smo, da je po nastopu finančne krize zaradi zmanjšanja kreditiranja bank in novih pogojev, ki jih te postavljajo kreditojemalcem, nastal primanjkljaj pri financiranju projektov. Zaradi tega se je okrepilo sodelovanje med investitorji, kamor sodijo skladi, kot so: pokojninski skladi, nepremičninski skladi ali večja nepremičninska podjetja in podjetja, ki se ukvarjajo z razvojem nepremičninskih projektov. Tako so se zadnji izognili oziroma v veliki meri zmanjšali potrebo po dolžniških virih financiranja, saj novi modeli sodelovanja temeljijo na vnaprejšnjem financiranju, vnaprejšnji prodaji ali na soinvestitorstvu. Prav zaradi tega razvoj projektov ni zastal, nasprotno, v državah, ki so od trgovskega sektorja precej podhranjene, se je nadaljeval, sicer v nekoliko zmanjšanem obsegu, pa vendar precej nadpovprečno v primerjavi z zahodno Evropo. Velik motiv zahodnih investitorjev so tudi – predvsem zaradi visoke stopnje tveganja – razmeroma visoki donosi. Prav tveganje pa je tisto, ki je v zadnjem obdobju doživelo popolno prenovo in nove poglede. Investitorji se navadno za vnaprejšnji nakup ali vnaprejšnje financiranje ne odločajo, če tveganja ne znižajo na najnižjo mogočo raven, kar pomeni, da zahtevajo pravnomočno gradbeno dovoljenje in pretežno oddane površine, in to še pred začetkom projekta. Prav zaradi spremenjenih modelov financiranja, pri katerih podjetja za razvoj projektov že vnaprej sklepajo pogodbe o prodaji nepremičnin, sicer projekta sploh ne začnejo izvajati, so stroški financiranja izgubili svojo težo pri vplivu na vrednost nepremičnine. Na vrednost nepremičnine v največji meri vplivata stopnja donosa (mera kapitalizacije) in povprečna najemnina, ki jo lahko doseže investitor pri oddaji objekta ob predpostavki, da gre za dolgoroč Despite the initial denial following the 2007 real estate market crash in the United States and the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank, most parts of the European financial markets were hit hard and suffered serious consequences. South Eastern countries were no exception, although the aftermath of the crash took longer to make itself evident in those areas. The country of Serbia, which barely recovered from the previous recession and was only just starting to enjoy the benefits of western capitalism, found itself in a new recession. Consequently, the banks suddenly stopped handing out loans and large financial systems found themselves in extreme difficulties, with future projects were being jeopardised. Many companies dealing with real estate project development along with investors, found themselves facing an enormous challenge in keeping their projects alive and further pursuing them. Most common ways of running projects through debt source funding and minimal personal financial involvement were no longer backed by the banks. Many of the projects about to be realised, grinded to a halt and were suddenly left unpursued, due to difficulties and the lack of financial backing. Not long before the crisis, large corporate retailers revamped their investment funding models and went from personal to long term renting. As the drop of consumer demand within the retail sector took longer to become evident and at the same time wasn't as harsh, the big retailers began pressuring investors and companies dealing with project development. All of that contributed to a development and design of the new models for funding investment/real estate projects, which we shall introduce in this dissertation. In the theoretical part we focus on international finances and the reasons behind the international flow of capital, through research we develop financial models in the period of global financial crisis. We determine new risk factors and monitor changes that occurred between the years 2009 and 2014 in the Serbian real estate retail market. The issue of our research addressed in this master's thesis is how and in what way to ensure sources of financial funding for international investment/real estate projects during the period of financial crisis in the Republic of Serbia, a member of the South Eastern European market. Our emphasis focused on commercial projects (stores, shopping centres). We began this research in 2010 and have since then been monitoring the economic environment in which these real estate projects are being developed. We concluded that following the financial crisis, which brought limited bank loan crediting along with their newly set requirements for any potential borrowers, a big funding deficit was created for financial funding of projects. This led to an increase in cooperation between investors dealing with money market funds, such as pension funds, real estate funds and other big real estate companies involved with real estate developments. This allowed the real estate companies to limit their demand for funding using debt sources, with their new models now based on advance funding, advance sale, or co-investment instead. For that reason, the development of projects in countries with underdeveloped retail sectors did not come to a halt, despite slowing down. It continued on and was remarkable when compared to the Western European markets. A big motivation for western developers was also the fairly high revenue, a result of high risks involved. It is the risk factor itself that in recent years got revolutionised in completely revamped. Investors choose against advanced funding or purchasing, if the risks are not brought to a minimum. This means they more often than not, demand a legal building permit and generally rented premises before even commencing with a project. The changes of financial funding models are forcing companies in concluding advance real estate contracts of sale, to be able to comme

S terminom financiranje z obveznostmi do dobaviteljev je obravnavana v magistrskem delu dinamika takšnega financiranja v Sloveniji in Veliki Britaniji v obdobju pred in med finančno krizo. Kadarkoli se plačilo ne opravi sočasno z dobavo blaga oz. opravljeno storitvijo dobavitelja, ta dobavitelj zagotavlja kupcu po definiciji posojilo. Takšen vir financiranja pomeni za podjetje cenejši in hitreje dostopen vir sredstev kot kakršnikoli drug zunanji vir financiranja. Namen magistrskega dela je bil potrditi ali zavrniti dve hipotezi. Kot prvo, da podjetja v času finančne krize hkrati podaljšujejo odlog plačila dobaviteljem in dajejo daljši odlog plačila svojim kupcem. Ter kot drugo, da podjetja, ki delujejo v panogah, ki so bolj podvržena finančni krizi, povečajo financiranje z obveznostmi do dobaviteljev bolj kot tista, ki delujejo v panogah, ki niso. Testiranje je bilo v obeh gospodarstvih opravljeno za panoge finančnega sektorja, gostinstva, kmetijstva, proizvodnje, trgovine in gradbeništva. Pri testiranju prve hipoteze smo agregatne računovodske izkaze posameznih panog v Sloveniji in Veliki Britaniji analizirali z metodo indeksov s stalno osnovo, verižnih indeksov, stopnjami rasti in statističnih koeficientov. Za vse panoge v Sloveniji smo prvo hipotezo dokazano zavrgli, kar pomeni, da podjetja v teh panogah niso hkrati podaljševala in dajala daljšega odloga plačila kupcem in dobaviteljev. Za panoge v Veliki Britaniji smo hipotezo ena zavrgli samo za panogi kmetijstva in finančnega sektorja, za vse preostale panoge pa smo dokazano hipotezo ena potrdili. Pri testiranju druge hipoteze smo dovzetnost posamezne panoge določili na osnovi kriterija upada števila zaposlenih in stopnje realne rasti posamezne panoge. Na osnovi izračuna vezanih in kvantilnih rangov smo določili mesto posamezne panoge glede na vzorec. Panoge, ki so se nahajale v zgornji polovici testiranega vzorca smo upoštevali kot bolj dovzetne. Pri testiranju druge hipoteze smo na ravni obeh gospodarstev, torej Slovenije in Velike Britanije uspeli potrditi drugo hipotezo. Kar pomeni, da so podjetja, ki delujejo v panogah, ki so bolj podvržene gospodarski krizi na območju Slovenije in Velike Britanije, povečale financiranje z obveznostmi do dobaviteljev. In this thesis the term financing with obligations to suppliers is discussed as dynamics of such financing in Slovenia and in the United Kingdom in the period before and during the financial crisis. Whenever the payment is not made concurrently with the supply of goods or services performed, the supplier by definition provides a loan to the buyer. This source of financing is cheaper for the company in provides accessibility of assets quicker than any other kind of external source of financing. The purpose of the master thesis was to confirm or reject two hypotheses. The first hypotheses was that companies during the financial crisis extend the deferral of payments and at the same time give longer delay payments to its customers. The second hypotheses was that the companies operating in sectors which are more prone to financial crisis, increase financing with obligations to suppliers more than those companies who operate in sectors that are not. Testing was made in both economies for the sectors of financial and insurance, agriculture, manufacturing, construction, Wholesale, accommodation and food service activities. Testing the first hypothesis, aggregate accounts of each tested sector in Slovenia and United Kingdom was analyzed by indices with fixed base, chain indexes, growth rates and statistical coefficients. For all sectors in Slovenia the first hypothesis was rejected, which means that the companies in these sectors didn’t at the same time lengthen the deferral of payments and gave longer delay payments to its customers. For the sectors in United Kingdom, the first hypothesis was rejected only in the sectors of agriculture and financial and insurance. For all other tested sector, the first hypothesis was confirmed. Testing the second hypothesis, the subjection to the financial crisis for each sector was analyzed based of the employment percentage drop in each sector and each sector growth rates. Based on the calculations of average in quartile ranks, the individual place in the sample for each sector was determined. Sector, positioned in upper half were considered as more subjected to financial crisis. Testing the second hypothesis on the level of both countries, we managed to confirm the hypothesis in Slovenia in United Kingdom, meaning that the companies, operating in sectors which are more subjected to financial crisis, increase financing with suppliers more than those sector who are subjected less.

Težnja po medsebojnem povezovanju finančnih institucij je v zadnjih desetletjih v porastu. Tako tudi banke in zavarovalnice iščejo nove možnosti za dodatno izkoriščanje skupnih prodajnih poti. Povezovanje bank in zavarovalnic, ki se je sprva pojavilo v osemdesetih letih prejšnjega stoletja v Franciji, in se v zadnjih dvajsetih letih vedno bolj uveljavlja na način, da banke v svojih poslovnih mrežah tržijo zavarovalniške produkte, imenujemo bančno zavarovalništvo. V magistrskem delu smo v teoretičnem delu predstavili pojav bančnega zavarovalništva, njegovo zgodovino in ključne dejavnike, ki vplivajo na uspeh le-tega. V empiričnem delu smo deskriptivno analizirali pojav v svetovnem merilu, tako v Sloveniji kot v nekaterih svetovnih državah: Franciji kot »zibelki« bančnega zavarovalništva, Združenih državah Amerike in Mehiki kot predstavnicah ameriškega področja in Indiji kot predstavnici azijsko – pacifiškega področja. Povzetek analize predstavlja primerjava značilnosti bančnega zavarovalništva v navedenih regijah. V drugem delu empiričnega dela smo primerjali deleže bančnega zavarovalništva v izbranih državah Evropske unije in tako potrdili oz. zavrgli tri hipoteze in eno podhipotezo. Z opisnim pristopom ter delno s primerjavo deležev bančnega zavarovalništva smo prikazali, da je bančno zavarovalništvo v posameznih državah različno uveljavljeno ter da slovenske banke in zavarovalnice na področju bančnega zavarovalništva ne dosegajo povprečja držav članic Evropske unije. S pomočjo statistične metode koeficienta korelacije in razsevnega diagrama smo raziskali povezanost spremenljivk: delež bančnega zavarovalništva pri življenjskih in neživljenjskih zavarovanjih ter bruto družbeni proizvod in delež bančnega zavarovalništva pri življenjskih in neživljenjskih zavarovanjih ter skupna premija na prebivalca. Pri tem smo ugotovili, da je negativna povezanost večja med deležem bančnega zavarovalništva ter bruto družbenim proizvod pri življenjskih zavarovanjih kot neživljenjskih zavarovanjih. Prav tako pa smo potrdili, da obstaja večja negativna povezanost med deležem bančnega zavarovalništva ter skupno premijo na prebivalca pri življenjskih zavarovanjih kot neživljenjskih zavarovanjih. Kljub dejstvu, da se je razvoj bančnega zavarovalništva v Sloveniji pričel šele ob koncu preteklega stoletja, pa ima bančno zavarovalništvo v Sloveniji velik potencial za nadaljnji razvoj, kar je predstavljeno tudi v nalogi. Tendencies for mutual connections and cooperation of financial institutions have increased in the last decade. Thus, banks and insurance companies are looking for new opportunities for additional exploit of joint sales channels. Linking banks and insurance companies originally appeared in 1960s in France. In the last two decades this cooperation has evolved, and the most common form is for banks to market insurance products through their business networks. This approach is known as bancassurance. The teoretical part of the master thesis outlines the concept of bancassurance, its occurance, its history and key factors that influence its success. In the empirical part we descriptively analyze the phenomenon as it appears world-wide, but with a specific focus on Slovenia as the country of interest, France as the »cradle« of bancassurance, United States of America and Mexico as representative of the American area and India as a representative of the Asia-Pacific area. Summary analysis presents a comparison of characteristics of bancassurance in those regions. In the second subsection of the empirical part we confirm or disprove three hypotheses and one additional sub-hypothesis through comparison of proportions of bancassurance in selected member states of the European Union. By descriptive approach and partly by comparing the shares of bancassurance, we show that bancassurance in different countries is developed and utilized at different levels. Slovenian banks and insurance companies do not reach the average of the member states of the European Union in the field of bancassurance. We used statistical methods, specifically correlation coefficients and scatterplots, to investigate correlations between variables: the share of bancassurance in life and non-life insurance and the gross domestic product as well as the share of bancassurance in life and non-life insurance and total premium per capita. Greater negative correlation was found between the share of bancassurance and gross domestic product in life insurance than in non-life insurance. Furthermore we comfirmed a greater negative correlation between the share of bancassurance and total premium per capita in life insurance than in non-life insurance. Despite the fact that the development of bancassurance in Slovenia started only at the end of the last century, it has great potential for further development, which is also presented in the thesis.

Vzroki in posledice zadnje finančne krize so mednarodno skupnost privedle do spoznanja, da so bančni in finančni sistemi držav občutljivi na nepričakovane finančne in ekonomske šoke. Mednarodna skupnost je spoznala, da z veljavno regulativo Basel II te vrste tveganj ni možno obvladovati, zato je Baselski odbor za bančni nadzor pripravil novo bančno regulativo Basel III. Problem raziskovanja so predvideni vplivi sprememb, ki jih prinaša nova bančna regulativa Basel III na dobičkonosnost bank iz EU, merjeno s kazalnikom donosnosti sredstev ROA in s kazalnikom donosnosti lastniškega kapitala banke ROE. Ugotovitve bodo pripomogle h kakovostni pripravi bank na predvidene vplive zahtev iz nove bančne regulative Basel III na dobičkonosnost poslovanja bank in posledično h kakovostnejšemu strateškemu in operativnemu načrtovanju delovanja bank, kar je v interesu vseh deležnikov bank. Deset hipotez smo preverjali s Pearsonovimi koeficienti korelacije, s katerimi je mogoče ugotavljati moč in smer korelacije med posameznimi spremenljivkami. V nadaljevanju smo opravili poglobljeno raziskavo vplivov z ekonometričnim modelom multiple regresije, s katerim smo raziskali vplive štirih bančnih in treh makroekonomskih spremenljivk (napovedovalcev) na kazalnik dobičkonosnosti sredstev bank ROA in kazalnik dobičkonosnosti kapitala bank ROE. Rezultati preverjanja hipotez nam pokažejo, da ima najmočnejšo raven korelacije, merjeno s Pearsonovim koeficientom korelacije, s kazalnikom dobičkonosnosti bank ROA napovedovalec temeljni kapital 1. reda, nato po moči korelacije sledi bruto družbeni produkt in nato sledita kapitalski blažilnik in tveganju prilagojena sredstva. Najmočnejšo raven korelacije s kazalnikom dobičkonosnosti bank ROE ima prav tako napovedovalec temeljni kapital 1. reda, nato sledita kapitalski blažilnik in tveganju prilagojena sredstva ter nato bruto družbeni produkt. Pri ugotavljanju skupnega vpliva sedmih spremenljivk na posamezen kazalnik dobičkonosnosti bank, nam analiza z metodo multiple regresije pokaže, da daje največji prispevek posameznega napovedovalca k modelu ROA temeljni kapital 1. reda, nato bruto družbeni produkt in nato kapitalski blažilnik. Napovedovalca temeljni kapital 1. reda in bruto družbeni produkt vplivata na izid pomembno pozitivno, medtem ko napovedovalec kapitalski blažilnik vpliva na izid pomembno negativno. V našem modelu lahko ugotovimo, da zgolj napovedovalec kapitalski blažilnik vpliva na kazalnik dobičkonosnosti bank ROA negativno, vsi ostali napovedovalci pa na ROA vplivajo pozitivno. Največji prispevek posameznega napovedovalca k modelu ROE dajeta napovedovalca bruto družbeni produkt in temeljni kapital 1. reda. Oba napovedovalca vplivata na kazalnik dobičkonosnosti bank ROE pozitivno. Z ekonometrično raziskavo smo ugotovili, da ima temeljni kapital 1. reda najmočnejši medsebojni vpliv, kakor tudi delež v skupinskem vplivu na dobičkonosnosti bank, merjeno s kazalnikom dobičkonosnosti bank ROA in kazalnikom dobičkonosnosti bank ROE. Glede na to, da ima nova bančna regulativa Basel III najpomembnejše nove zahteve ravno s področja kapitala bank, bodo zahteve Basel III imele velik vpliv na dobičkonosnosti bank, na kar morajo biti vodstva bank pravočasno pripravljena. Causes and consequences of the recent financial crisis, led the international community to the conclusion that the banking and financial systems, as an important part of the national economies, are very vulnerable to unexpected financial and economic shocks. The international community has also recognized that with the current Basel II regulations these types of risks can not be managed, therefore, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision drafted the new Basel III banking regulations. Regarding all we decided to research estimated impact of the new Basel III banking regulations on the profitability of the banks in the EU, measured by the indicator of return on assets ROA and by the indicator of return on equity ROE. The research findings will contribute to the quality of the preparation of the banks to the impacts of the new Basel III banking regulation on profitability as well as to relevant strategic and operational planning of the bank, which is in the interests of all stakeholders. Ten hypotheses were examined and analysed with Pearson's correlation coefficient, which can be applied to determine the strength and direction of the correlation between two variables. In continuation, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the effects of the econometric model of multiple regression, with whom we studied the impacts of four banking and three macroeconomic predictive variables on the indicators of bank's profitability ROA and ROE. The results of verifying hypotheses have shown us that the strongest levels of correlation, measured by the Pearson's correlation coefficient, with the indicator of profitability of banks ROA is predictor Core Tier 1 capital, then followed by predictor Gross domestic product, and then by Capital buffer and Risk-weighted assets. The strongest levels of correlation with the profitability indicator ROE has also a predictor Core Tier 1 capital, then followed by Capital buffer and Risk-weighted assets, and by Gross domestic product. In researching the combined effect of all seven variables on each measure of profitability, we conduct the analysis with multiple regression which indicated that the largest contribution to ROA model gave Core Tier 1 capital, then followed by the Gross domestic product, and then Capital buffer. Predictors Core Tier 1 capital and Gross domestic product affect the outcome significantly positive, while the predictor Capital buffers affect the outcome significantly negative. Predictor Capital buffer affects the indicator of profitability ROA negative, and all the others predictors of ROA model positive. The maximum contribution to the ROE model gave prodictors Gross domestic product and Core Tier 1 capital. Both prodictors effected bank's profitability indicator ROE positive. With the econometric study we indicated that the Core Tier 1 capital has the strongest single impact as well as the share in collective impact on the profitability of banks, measured by indicator of bank's profitability ROA and by indicator ROE. Major new requirements of the new banking regulation Basel III are mainly from the area of bank's capital requirements, therefore Basel III new requirements shall have a significant impact on the profitability of banks, therefore the management of banks should be timely prepared.

This thesis investigates the impact of the exchange rate regime choice on participants in the economy. The usual approach to the investigate the impact of the exchange rate changes in the economy is to investigate how do the changes in the exchange rate value impact the changes in the inflation rate. In order to stabilize inflation many central banks often adopt fixed or very stable exchange rates. This thesis takes another approach entirely and contests the narrow view of the exchange rate to just inflation. This thesis postulates that the choices of the exchange rate regime in itself dictates the behavior of economic agents. Under different exchange rate regimes the economic participants will make different choices and the difference in choices will be exhibited in the economic data. So economies with different exchange rate regimes will have different data properties for same economic variables. The focus of analysis is the transition small open economies which have to make a choice between stable and variable exchange rate regime. The interaction between participants in the economy is investigated through a dynamic model with optimizing agents under two states: stable and variable exchange rate regime. The participants analyzed in the thesis are: central bank, banks, households, firms and governments. Each participant makes optimal choices under each state of the exchange rate regime. Once the model is implemented interactions between the participants is investigated and how different choices change the data behavior. The model created is heavily skewed towards the impact of the monetary policy on the economy and does not investigate deeply into the fiscal policies. The predictions from the model are compared to the actual data on a sample of 10 transition economies: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia. The model does very well in terms of the monetary variables like foreign debt, household debt. From the data it is clear there are possible fiscal policies which could offset the effects of a particular exchange rate regime, but on the data set this was only done in Czech Republic. Comparing the model and the data it is clear the choice of the exchange rate regime and the change of the exchange rate regime (switch in the regime) does cause different economic behavior of economic participants. This brings another light to the influence of the monetary policy on the economy since from the model and the data it is clear the choice of the exchange rate regime play a significant role in the process of decision making of economic participants. The model predicts and the data confirms there is a considerable differences in the economic variables between the two regimes. The most striking differences are in: household debt and foreign debt. The model and the data both show the variable exchange rate is superior to stable exchange rate regime Ta doktorat raziskuje, kakšen je vpliv izbire tečajnega režima na udeležence v ekonomiji. Standardni pristop k analizi vpliva spremembe tečaja na ekonomijo je analiza, kako spremembe v vrednosti tečaja vplivajo na vrednost in spremembe stopnje inflacije. Ker si centralne banke želji stabilizirati inflacijo, se številne med njimi pogosto odločijo za režim fiksnega ali stabilnega tečaja. Ta doktorat ima povsem drugačen pristop in zavrača ozek pogled na tečaj, ki je povezan samo z inflacijo. Ta doktorat določa, da izbira tečajnega režima sama po sebi diktira obnašanje udeležencev v ekonomiji. Pod različnimi tečajnimi režimi bodo udeleženci v ekonomiji sprejemali različne odločitve in razlike v odločitvah bodo vidne v ekonomskih podatkih. To pomeni, da bodo podatki iz ekonomij z različnimi tečajnimi režimi imeli različne karakteristike za iste ekonomske spremenljivke. Fokus analize je na malih odprtih ekonomijah tranzicije, ki se morajo odločiti med stabilnim in spremenljiv tečajnim režimom. Interakcija med udeleženci v ekonomiji je raziskana preko dinamičnega modela z optimizacijskimi udeleženci v dveh različnih stanjih: stabilnem in spremenljivem tečajnem režimu. Analizirani ekonomski udeleženci so: centralna banka, banke, gospodinjstva, podjetja, vlada. Vsak udeleženec izbira optimalne odločitve glede na stanje tečajne politike. Ko je model zaokrožen, se analizira povezanost med udeleženci in različne ekonomske odločitve bi se morale pokazati v ekonomskih podatkih. Model je narejen tako, da je naklonjen vplivu monetarne politike na ekonomijo in ne raziskuje globlje fiskalne politike. Predvidevanja iz modela so primerjana z dejanskimi podatki na vzorcu iz 10 tranzicijskih držav: Bolgarije, Češke, Hrvaške, Estonije, Madžarske, Latvije, Litve, Romunije, Slovaške in Slovenije. Model se je pokazal kot zelo dober pri monetarnih spremenljivkah kot zunanji dolg ali dolg gospodinjstev. Iz podatkov je tudi jasno, da obstajajo fiskalne politike, ki bi lahko odpravile slabe učinke posameznega tečajnega režima, vendar je v dejanskih podatkih to storjeno samo na Češkem. S primerjavo modela in podatkov je dokazano, da izbira tečajnega režima in spremembe v tečajnem režimu (iz enega režima v drugega) zares povzročajo spremembe v obnašanju udeležencev v ekonomiji. Ta raziskava na novo osvetljuje vpliv monetarne politike na ekonomijo, glede na to, da model in podatki jasno kažejo, da izbira tečajnega režima igra pomembno vlogo pri procesu sprejemanja odločitev udeležencev v ekonomiji. Model predvideva in podatki kažejo, da obstajajo pomembne razlike med dvema tečajnima režimoma. Največja razlika je v dolgu gospodinjstev in zunanjem dolgu. Model in podatki prav tako kažejo, da je spremenljivi tečajni režim superioren stabilnemu tečaju.

Skrbni pregled v okviru prevzema predstavlja podporni proces skozi vse faze prevzema. Pomembno vpliva na doseganje zastavljenih ciljev po prevzemu, saj predstavlja organizirano podporo pri obvladovanju tveganj, ki se po prevzemu lahko pojavijo zaradi vzpostavljanja na novo organiziranega procesa poslovanja. V sklopu skrbnega pregleda prehajajo tri prevzemne faze. V prvi fazi je skrbni pregled prisoten v okviru analize izbora prevzemne tarče, v drugi fazi poteka proučevanje poslovnih dogodkov in dokumentacije izbranega subjekta, tretja faza integracije pa je faza vzpostavljanja poslovanja, kjer se skrbni pregled pojavlja tudi v okviru vprašanja medkulturnih razlik in zagotavlja podporo pri doseganju zastavljenih ciljev. V preteklosti je bilo v razvitih državah zaznanih veliko neuspešnih prevzemov, in sicer v smislu, da investitorji po prevzemu bodisi niso dosegli pričakovanega donosa bodisi niso uspeli doseči drugih zastavljenih ciljev ali pa dobička preprosto niso dosegli zaradi konflikta interesov vodstva oz. drugih zaposlenih. Vzroke je mogoče iskati tudi v tem, da je bilo mnogo prevzemov izvedenih z bežnim ali omejenim skrbnim pregledom ob slabi komunikaciji med ravnmi ali v precenjenih kupninah. Raziskava odkriva, da je za prevzem potrebno učinkovito obvladovanje vseh dejavnikov, ki lahko predstavljajo tveganje za prevzemnika. Ugotavljamo tudi, da so odločitve pri prevzemih večinoma sprejete zaradi finančnih podatkov podjetja, sprejemljivih za investitorja, in zaradi sprejemljivega zahtevanega donosa, za katerega se predvideva, da ga bo podjetje lahko doseglo po prevzemu. Primeri v praksi pa kažejo, da je problem neuspešnih prevzemov predvsem slaba komunikacija, slab medkulturni dialog, konflikt interesov, preplačano podjetje, precenjeni cilji in slab skrbni pregled, iz česar lahko sklepamo, da je potreben bolj diverzificiran pristop k preučevanju podjetja tarče, ki ni omejen zgolj na glavne pravne in finančne iztočnice podjetja. In terms of acquisition (and/or merger), due diligence represents a support process through all phases of acquisition. Providing support for risk management that can occur after the acquisition due to the establishment of newly organized business process, it also has a significant impact on the fulfillment of set goals after the acquisition. Due diligence consists of three acquisition phases. First phase includes a selection of a merger target, second phase is a research of business events and documentation of the selected candidate and third phase, which is an integration phase, includes an establishment of a business process in which due diligence takes place in the context of cultural differences, but also serves as a support factor for reaching set goals. In the past, developed countries recorded several unsuccessful acquisitions, as investors failed to reach the required rate of return or other set goals, or could not make profit due to conflict of interests of management and/or other employees. Another cause of such failure could also be that many mergers included only a short or limited due diligence process with poor communication between levels or due to overvalued purchase. Our research shows that a successful merger requires an effective control over all factors that could represent a risk for the acquirer. We can also conclude that, in terms of acquisition, decision-making is generally based on company’s financial data, which is acceptable for the investor, and on acceptable required rate of return which is expected to be reached after the acquisition. However, in reality, the main problem of unsuccessful acquisitions is poor communication, poor cultural dialogue, conflict of interest, an overpaid company, overvalued goals and a weak due diligence, which suggests the need for a more diversified approach to the study of the target company that is not limited only to company’s basic legal and financial aspects.

Okolje, v katerem delujejo plačilni sistemi, se nenehno spreminja in predstavlja pojav novih tveganj. Zaradi kompleksnosti plačilnih sistemov in podvrženosti številnim virom tveganj, je potrebno opredeliti celosten proces upravljanja tveganj ter ustrezno obvladovanje tveganj. V prvem delu magistrskega dela smo opredelili tveganja v plačilnih sistemih ter predstavili ukrepe za obvladovanje operativnih in finančnih tveganj v plačilnih sistemih. V nadaljevanju smo podrobneje predstavili elemente procesa upravljanja tveganj v plačilnih sistemih in metodologijo izvajanja analize tveganj ter preučili izvajanje analiz tveganj na večih nivojih. Ker pomembno vlogo pri procesu upravljanja tveganj predstavlja analiza tveganj, smo opredelili ključne elemente in korake izvajanja analize tveganj. Podrobneje smo proučili tudi ostale elemente upravljanja s tveganji, in sicer obvladovanje tveganj, dokumentiranje in poročanje o izvedeni analizi tveganj. Ne nazadnje smo predstavili spremljanje realizacije ukrepov ter zagotavljanje učinkovitosti procesa upravljanja tveganj. Drugi del magistrskega dela vključuje predstavitev elementov procesa upravljanja tveganj v okviru metodologij oziroma mednarodnih standardnih okvirov za upravljanje tveganj. S pomočjo primerjalne analize smo glede na izbrane kriterije predstavili podobnosti oziroma razlike izbranih metodologij in mednarodnih standardnih okvirov za upravljanje tveganj. V nadaljevanju smo podali predlog za izvajanje analize tveganj v plačilnem sistemu X na različnih nivojih, pri čemer smo izhajali iz pridobljenih ugotovitev o prednostih oziroma pomanjkljivostih izbranih metodologij in mednarodnih standardnih okvirov za upravljanje tveganj. Tekom magistrskega dela smo poudarili pomembnost vlog in odgovornosti vseh udeležencev pri upravljanju tveganj v plačilnih sistemih, saj proces upravljanja tveganj ni zgolj v domeni lastnikov poslovnih procesov v organizaciji. Dodatno smo predstavili medsebojno odvisnost obravnavanih tveganj in izpostavljenost poslovnih ciljev, procesov ter sistemov v primeru nastopa operativnega tveganja. Ob predpostavki, da je metodologija upravljanja tveganj odvisna od kulture upravljanja v organizaciji, smo podali ugotovitve o pomembnosti rezultatov izvedene analize tveganj in ustrezno opredeljeni metodologiji izvajanja analize tveganj. Environment, in which payment systems operate, is constantly changing and represents the appearance of new risks. Due to the complexity of payment systems and being subjected to many sources of risks, it is necessary to define a comprehensive risk management process and determine appropriate risk response. In the first part of the master's work we identify risks in payment systems and introduce measures to manage operational and financial risks in payment systems. Further on we present the elements of the risk management process in payment systems and risk assessment methodology and included how risk assessments can be applied across several tiers. Because risk assessment plays a significant role in the risk management process, we identified key elements and steps of risk assessment. We also examine other elements of risk management process, namely risk response, communication and reporting of risk assessment results. Finally, we introduce risk monitoring of measures and how to determine the effectiveness of the risk management process. The second part of the master's work includes the presentation of elements of the risk management process in the context of risk assessment methodologies and risk IT frameworks. Through comparative analyses based on selected criteria, we present similarities and differences of selected risk assessment methodologies and risk IT frameworks. Further on we present a proposal for risk assessment in the payment system X applied across several tiers, which based on the findings regarding the advantages and disadvantages of selected risk assessment methodologies and risk IT frameworks. During the master's work we pointed out the importance of the roles and responsibilities of all participants in the risk management process in payment systems, because the risk management process is not only in the domain of the owners of the business processes in organization. Additionally, we present the interdependence of treated risks and exposure of business objectives, processes and systems to operational risk. On the assumption that the risk management methodology depends on the organizational culture, we provided findings on the significance of risk assessment results and properly defined risk assessment methodology.

Plemenite kovine so skupno ime za redke kovinske kemijske elemente, ki jih lahko najdemo v naravi in imajo visoko ekonomsko vrednost. Zgodovinsko gledano so bile pomembne kot plačilno sredstvo oziroma sredstvo menjave. Danes se jih smatra predvsem za industrijsko ter investicijsko blago. Njihova industrijska uporaba je razširjena na veliko področij. Zasledimo jih v medicini, elektrotehniki, umetnosti (nakit), kemijski industriji ter celo v prehrambni industriji. Na investicijskem področju veljajo plemenite kovine predvsem za hranitelja vrednosti. Iz tega razloga povpraševanje po njih zmeraj naraste ob pomembnih družbeno-ekonomskih ali naravnih dogodkih, ki imajo negativen vpliv na preostalo gospodarstvo. Investicije v plemenite kovine potekajo na posreden (npr. delnice rudarskih podjetij) kot tudi neposreden način (palice, kovanci …), vsekakor pa so po vrsti naložba za zavarovanje premoženja na dolgi rok in ne priložnost za hiter zaslužek. Precious metals are a common name for rare metallic chemical elements, which can be found in nature, with high economic value. Historically they have been important as currency or as a resource for exchange. Today they are regarded as investment and industrial commodities. Their industrial use is very wide. We can find usage of precious metals in medicine, electronics, art (jewelry), chemical industry and even in food industry. The role of precious metals as an investment is first of all store of value. Because of that reason, demand usually rises in events of social economic or natural events, which have a negative impact on the economy. Investments can be made indirectly (buying mining company shares) or directly (buying bars, coins,). But by all means should investments in precious metals be considered as insurance of equity in longer term rather than a quick money making opportunity.

Bančno poslovanje je neločljivo povezano s prevzemanjem tveganj. Za banko je ključnega pomena, da se teh tveganj zaveda, jih identificira, analizira, ovrednoti in sprejme ustrezne ukrepe, s čimer bistveno zmanjša možnost nastopa negativnih posledic na njeno poslovanje. Tržna tveganja, obvladovanju katerih je naloga namenjena, izvirajo iz sprememb tržnih cen, valutnih tečajev in obrestnih mer finančnih instrumentov. V bančnem poslovanju predstavljajo manjši pa vendar nezanemarljiv del tveganj, ki jim je banka pri svojem poslovanju izpostavljena. Za njihovo učinkovito obvladovanja ima banka na voljo številne instrumente, katere in kako bo uporabila pa je v prvi vrsti odvisno od njenih poslovnih potreb, kakor tudi od njene dovzetnosti za prevzemanje teh tveganj. V nalogi smo se osredotočili na sistem limitov in izvedene finančne instrumente kot možne načine za obvladovanje tržnih tveganj. Mednje smo vključili tudi tvegano vrednost (ang. value at risk) kot mero najvišje potencialne izgube, ki jo lahko imetnik portfelja ob upoštevanju določene verjetnosti dogodkov realizira v določenem obdobju. Na izračun potencialne izgube pomembno vpliva nestanovitnost cen finančnih instrumentov, prikaz povezave med omenjenima spremenljivkama pa je sestavni del naloge. Vsebina naloge ni uporabna zgolj za poslovne banke. Limitni sistem kot mehanizem obvladovanja tveganj je uporaben za vsakega investitorja, ki lahko z nekaj osnovnega računalniškega znanja učinkovito upravlja svoj portfelj ter tako pomembno vpliva na poslovni rezultat le-tega. Seveda je kompleksnost upravljanja takega portfelja bistveno manjša od upravljanja portfelja poslovne banke, ki se pri svojem poslovanju srečuje z različnimi finančnimi instrumenti, čemur mora biti prilagojena tudi njena informacijska podpora. Dopolnitev limitnemu sistemu predstavljajo izvedeni finančni instrumenti. Ti so še posebej uporabni pri zapiranju oziroma uravnavanju valutno in obrestno občutljivih pozicij, ki jih banka zavzema pri svojem poslovanju. Ključno pri obvladovanju tržnih tveganj je definiranje največje izgube, ki smo jo še pripravljeni prevzeti, kakor tudi višine zaslužka, pri katerem smo pripravljeni določeno pozicijo zapreti. Z dobro zastavljeno politiko obvladovanja tržnih tveganj, ki jo je potrebno nenehno preverjati in nadgrajevati, lahko banka pomembno vpliva na svoj poslovni rezultat. Pri tem je z vidika investitorjev pomembno, da jim v zameno za občasne visoke donose, ki se lahko kaj kmalu obrnejo v negativno smer, zagotavlja stabilne poslovne rezultate ter posledično stabilen donos na vložen kapital. Hkrati poslovna banka s takšnim poslovanjem varčevalcem daje pozitiven signal, da je stabilna in zaupanja vredna institucija. Banking business is inseparably connected with assuming risks. It is of crucial importance for the bank to be aware of these risks, that they are identified, analyzed and evaluated and that appropriate measures which significantly reduce the possibility of negative effects on its operations are adopted. Market risks, the management of which this thesis is dedicated to, derive from changes in market prices and exchange rates of as well as interest rates for financial instruments. In banking business these risks represent smaller but nevertheless a non-negligible part of risks the bank is exposed to. There are several instruments the bank can make use of in order to efficiently manage these risks. Which instruments to use and when to use them principally depends upon the business needs of the bank as well as upon the susceptibility of the bank to assuming these risks. This thesis focuses on the limit system and derivative financial instruments as possible methods for managing market risks. Included in these methods is also value at risk as a measure of the highest potential loss that the portfolio’s owner, taking into account certain likelihood of events, may realize during a certain period. Calculation of potential loss is significantly influenced by the volatility of prices of financial instruments, indication of connection between the two variables being the essential part of this thesis. The content of this thesis is not useful only to commercial banks. Limit system as a mechanism for managing risks is useful to every investor who can, with some basic computer knowledge, efficiently manage his/her portfolio and thus significantly impact its business outcome. Of course the managing of such a portfolio is substantially less complex than portfolio management of a commercial bank that operates with different financial instruments, which requires also appropriate information technology support. Derivative financial instruments supplement the limit system. They are particularly useful when closing or regulating currency-sensitive or interest-sensitive positions of the bank. Essential for managing market risks is defining the highest loss, that we are willing to take on, as well as defining the amount of earnings at realization of which we are prepared to close a certain position. With well worked-out policy for managing market risks, which constantly needs checking and upgrading, the bank is able to considerately impact its business outcome. At the same time it is important from the investors’ point of view that in exchange for sporadic high yields, which can soon turn to negative, stable business results and consequently stable return on invested capital are assured. By conducting its business in such a way a commercial bank sends its depositors a positive signal meaning that it is a stable and trustworthy institution.

Izračun dobička ali izgube pri finančnih derivatih. Calculation of profit and loss of financial derivatives.

Namen raziskave je ugotoviti, ali strategija vrednostnega investiranja drži tako s teoretičnega kot tudi praktičnega vidika. Raziskava je razdeljena na dva dela. V prvem delu je podana teoretična razlaga v poglavju 1 opisujemo sodobno finančno teorijo, ki bazira na neoklasični ekonomiji in predvideva, da je posameznik nenaklonjen tveganju, da ima popolne informacije in se osredotoča na maksimiranje osebne koristnosti. Takšno obnašanje vodi k učinkovitim tržnim razmeram, kjer cene odražajo vse dosegljive informacije. Upravljavci premoženja se lahko osredotočijo na sestavo učinkovitih portfeljev na parabolični meji učinkovitosti, kjer se nahajajo portfelji, ki ob pričakovanem donosu in sprejemljivem tveganju zadovoljijo posameznikove individualne cilje in omejitve. V nadaljevanju magistrskega dela je predstavljena tudi premica trga kapitala (SML), ki kaže na razmerje med tveganjem in zahtevano donosnostjo posamezne naložbe. Vendar, če trenutne cene notranje vrednosti naložbe ne odražajo pravilno, je z modelom nekaj narobe. Tako v poglavju 2 predstavimo vedenjske finance, ki postavljajo sodobno finančno teorijo pod vprašanje. Vedenjske finance obravnavajo vedenje tržnih udeležencev in vpliv psiholoških dejavnikov na delovanje trga. Boljše razumevanje vedenjskih pristranskosti posameznega udeleženca pripomore k učinkovitejši sestavi portfelja v primerjavi s portfelji, ki temeljijo na predpostavkah sodobne finančne teorije. Poglavje 3 podrobneje obravnava strategijo vrednostnega investiranja. Vlagatelj, ki se poslužuje strategije vrednostnega investiranja, oceni notranjo vrednost delnice podjetja in to primerja s trenutno ceno na borzi. Če je cena na borzi nižja od notranje vrednosti podjetja za vrednost varnostnega faktorja ali marže, se vlagatelj odloči za nakup. Delnice podjetij z oznako "value" ponavadi spremljajo nizka vrednost kazalnika cena/dobiček na delnico, visoka vrednost kazalnika knjigovodska vrednost/cena na delnico in nizka vrednost kazalnika cena/dividenda na delnico. V poglavju 3 predstavimo tudi številne empirične raziskave na temo vrednostnega investiranja in različne razlage o tem, zakaj prihaja do odstopanj v donosih med različnimi strategijami. Veliko raziskav postavlja v ospredje vedenjske pristranskosti kot enega glavnih razlogov, zaradi katerega prihaja do razlik v donosnosti različnih strategij investiranja. V drugem delu raziskave preverjamo donosnost različnih delniških indeksov (S&P 500, S&P Value in S&P Growth) skozi različna obdobja (3, 5, 7, 10 in 15 let) s pričetkom v letu 1997 in s koncem opazovanega obdobja v letu 2012. Za potrebe raziskave izračunamo letne donose posameznih indeksov, standardne odklone, Sharpov koeficient, Sortinov koeficient in Treynorjev koeficient. Rezultat raziskave pokaže, da dosežejo "value" delnice v povprečju višje donose razen ob koncu 90-ih v času tehnološkega balona in v letih po začetku finančne krize v letu 2007. Številni dokazi govorijo tudi v prid hipotezi, ki trdi, da "value" delnice niso nič bolj tvegane v primerjavi z delnicami hitro rastočih podjetij. The goal of a study is to determine whether the value investing works both theoretically and empirically. This paper is divided in two more significant parts. The first part consists of theoretical basis in Chapter 1 we describe the traditional finance, which is based on neoclassical economics and assumes individuals are risk-averse, have perfect information, and focus on maximizing their personal utility function. Such behavior leads to efficient markets where prices reflect available, pertinent information. Portfolio managers can focus on identifying efficient portfolios on the efficient frontier that meet the client`s objectives of risk and return while also observing the investor`s constraints. We also demonstrate the creation of a security market line (SML) that visually represents the relationship between risk and the expected or the required rate of return on an asset. However, if prices are not correctly reflecting intrinsic value, or at least providing the best indication possible, this approach to portfolio management is flawed. In Chapter 2 we present behavioral finance, which challenges these traditional finance notions. Behavioral finance looks at normal behavior of individual market participants and the effect of such behavior on markets. A better understanding of the biases of individual market participants should allow for the construction of portfolios that better approximate the efficiency of traditional finance. Chapter 3 provides more detailed discussion on value investing. A value investor estimates the fundamental value of a financial security and compares that value to the current market price. If price is lower than value by a sufficient margin of safety, the value investor buys the security. Value stocks have low price-to-earnings ratios, high book-to-market values, and low price-to-dividends ratios. In Chapter 3 we also review the empirical research on value investing and discuss the various explanations for the performance of value versus growth stocks. A lot of studies have offered behavioral explanations, identifying the value and growth anomalies as a mispricing rather than an adjustment for risk. Our study on the profitability of investment strategies in the second part of research is conducted on a sample of various stock indices (S&P 500, S&P Value and S&P Growth). The observation periods are 3, 5, 7, 10 and 15 years, beginning with 1997 and ending 2012. When analyzing the performance of indices we calculate the yearly returns, standard deviation, Sharpe ratios, Sortino ratios and Treynor ratios. We find out that value stocks, on average, earn higher returns than growth stocks (the exception is late 90s-bubble in technology and in the years after the financial crisis in 2007). The evidence from a variety of indicators, including beta and standard deviation, shows that value stocks are not riskier than growth stocks.

Enotno območje plačil v evrih prinaša spremembe vsem akterjem, ki s posluževanjem plačilnih instrumentov prek veljavnih shem urejajo finančne zadeve. SEPA je okolje, kjer udeleženci izvršujejo domača in čezmejna plačila pod enakimi pogoji ter z enakimi pravicami in obveznostmi. Koristi so deležni tako ponudniki plačilnih storitev kakor tudi pravni subjekti in fizične osebe. Banke so z vstopom v nov prostor morale ovrednotiti vpliv SEPA na bodoče poslovanje in delovanje trga. Zniževanje prihodkov iz naslova procesiranja plačilnih storitev in visoki stroški informacijske tehnologije so botrovali iskanju sodobnejših oblik poslovanja. Vpliv konkurence je in bo tudi v prihodnje pripomogel k snovanju novih produktov, povezanih z elektronskim poslovanjem. SEPA z uporabo enega računa omogoča izvrševanje domačih in čezmejnih plačil potrošnikom in gospodarskim družbam, slednjim pa tudi upravljanje plačilne sposobnosti na enem mestu. Uvedba direktne obremenitve SEPA je omogočila dosegljivost plačnikov za izvajanje čezmejnih plačil kjer koli na območju SEPA. V primerjavi z nacionalnimi direktnimi obremenitvami omogoča shema SEPA, ki ne omejuje namena in višine zneska plačila, izvrševanje enkratnih in ponavljajočih se direktnih obremenitev SEPA, vsak bančni delovni dan. Ponudnikom plačilnih storitev je v skladu s pravili delovanja, ki plačnikom opredeljujejo možnost povrnitve že izvršene direktne obremenitve SEPA, ključno, da debetni plačilni instrument proučijo z vidika tveganja. Za banke je pomembno, da najdejo in upoštevajo ukrepe za omejitev tveganja in s tem pripomorejo k večanju ugleda in zaupanja v sheme SEPA za direktne obremenitve. The Single Euro Payments Area brings change to all players that govern their financial affairs by using means of payment over the existing schemes. SEPA is an environment where participants carry out domestic and cross-border payments under the same conditions and with the same rights and obligations. The benefits are received by payment service providers as well as legal entities and private individuals. Banks by entering the new space had to evaluate the impact of SEPA on future operations and functioning of the market. The decline in revenues from the payment processing services and the high cost of information technology contributed to our finding of more modern forms of business. The influence of competition is and will continue to contribute to the design new products related to electronic commerce. SEPA using a single account allows execution of domestic and cross-border payments to consumers and corporations, the latter as well as the management of liquidity in one place. The introduction of SEPA direct debits has enabled the payer the availability of cross-border payments anywhere in the SEPA area. Compared with the national direct debits, SEPA scheme, which does not limit the purpose and amount of payment, enables one-off and recurring direct debit scheme SEPA each bank business day. It is vital to the payment service providers in accordance with the rules of operation, which is determined by the possibility of recovering the payer the already executed direct debits SEPA, to consider the debit payment instrument in the light of risk. For banks it is important to identify and take account of measures to limit the risk and thus contribute to raising the reputation and confidence in the SEPA scheme of direct debits.

Izvedenih finančnih instrumentov je veliko več, kot jih je opisanih v diplomski nalogi, hkrati pa nastajajo novi. Vsak izvedeni finančni instrument ima svoje prednosti in slabosti pred ostalimi instrumenti, zato je od vsake posamezne situacije odvisno kateri instrument je v danem trenutku najprimernejši. Podjetja in banke se morajo pred neugodnimi spremembami deviznih tečajev in obrestnih mer ustrezno zavarovati, katero obliko zavarovanja pa bodo izbrali, je odvisno od njih samih. Skratka, izvedeni finančni instrumenti so orodje, s katerimi je mogoče doseči donos v situaciji, ko tečaji ali obrestne mere rastejo ali padajo. In this Thesis only a few executed financial instruments are described however, there are many more. What is more, new financial instruments are in constant development. Each situation is different and thus a careful and precise examination of the situation is the basis for choosing a suitable financial instrument, since each has its advantages and disadvantages. It is important that banks and companies take proper insurance measures to secure themselves in case of unpleasant changes in the exchange and interest rates. The precaution measure is chosen by the bank or company itself. In summary, derivatives are tools that enable income in case of increase or fall of the exchange and interest rates.

Predstavili smo področje akreditivov, ki se nanaša na mednarodno trgovanje z zavarovanjem plačila. Kot prednost akreditiva je najpogosteje izpostavljeno zavarovanje tveganja, medtem ko med slabostmi najpogosteje najdemo stroškovni vidik. Poznamo več vrst akreditivov, ki jih prav tako delimo po različnih kriterijih, pomembno je, da se pogodbeni stranki predhodno dogovorita glede vrste akreditiva, kot tudi glede načina plačila. Udeleženci, ki nastopajo v akreditivu so lahko različni, vedno pa so prisotni nalogodajalec in upravičenec ter akreditivna in avizirna banka. Pomembno je prav tako dejstvo, da banke poslujejo le z dokumenti, ter se v osnovni posel ne vmešavajo. Dokumenti, ki jih je potrebno predložiti akreditivu, morajo prav tako biti opredeljeni v osnovni pogodbi. Akreditivno poslovanje poteka na osnovi pogodbe iz osnovnega posla med nalogodajalcem in upravičencem. Na osnovi te pogodbe se v posel vključujejo še druge stranke ter izvedejo naloge, ki so jim bile naložene. Gre za celovit pristop k zavarovanju posla pri mednarodnem trgovanju. S tem se doseže stabilnost in zaščitijo pogodbeni interesi strank v poslu. Poslovanje z akreditivom vsebuje več faz, ki jih na kratko lahko opredelimo kot otvoritev akreditiva, aviziranje akreditiva, sprememba akreditiva ter predložitev in pregled dokumentov. Praktičen primer poteka akreditiva smo predstavili na osnovi Nove KBM d.d., kjer je predstavljeno delovanje s stališča akreditivne banke, od otvoritve akreditiva, aviziranja, predložitve in pregleda dokumentov pa do plačila. We presented the area of letters of credit relating to international trade and insuring payments. The most exposed advantage of letter of credit is risk insurance, while the most common disadvantage is the cost aspect. There are several types of credit, which are also divided according to different criteria, it is important that the parties in the initial contract previously agreed on the type of letter of credit, as well as the payment method. Participants acting on the letter of credit may vary, but the ones always present are applicant and beneficiary and also issuing bank and advising bank. An important fact is that banks deal only with documents not with goods, and the initial contract does not oblige them. Documents that need to be presented to the letter of credit must also be specified in the initial contract. Letter of credit operations are based on the initial contract of the underlying transaction between the applicant and the beneficiary. On the basis of this contract other parties are included and carry out the tasks imposed on them. This is a comprehensive approach to insure international trade business. The goal is to achieve stability and protect the interests of the initial contract parties. Process of dealing with letter of credit contains several phases, which can be defined as the issuing a of letter of credit, advising the letter of credit, changing letter of credit and the presentation and review of documents. A practical example of the process of letter of credit was presented based on Nova KBM d.d. bank, where the action is presented from the perspective of issuing bank, from the issuing of letter of credit, advising, presentation and review documents until payment.

V magistrskem delu je predstavljena ameriška centralna banka FED, njena organizacijska struktura in organi, orodja za izvajanje monetarne politike, vodenje monetarne politike ter njen odziv na finančno krizo od leta 2007 naprej. FED je centralna banka največjega gospodarstva na svetu – ZDA. Njegova organizacijska struktura in proces sprejemanja/izvajanja odločitev sta unikatni. Posledic izvajanja monetarne politike ne čutijo le ZDA, ampak le-te vplivajo na globalno gospodarstvo. Na primeru pretekle finančne krize od leta 2007 do danes je praktično prikazano njeno delovanje, izvajanje monetarne politike in sprejeti ukrepi. Brez tako obširne akcije, kot je bila izvedena, si današnjega finančnega sveta ne moremo predstavljati. Razumevanje njenega delovanja je zaradi globalnega vpliva izredno pomembno za boljšo predstavo o dogajanju na ekonomskem področju. The master thesis introduces the US central bank FED and discusses its organisational structure and bodies, its monetary policy and the tools for the policy’s implementation, as well as the FED's response to the financial crisis from year 2007 onwards. FED is the central bank of the biggest economy in the world – the USA. Its organisational structure and its processes of making decisions and executing them are unlike any other in the world. The consequences of FED's monetary policy not only affect the USA, but also the global economy. In the thesis, FED's operation and activities, its accepted measures and its monetary policy are represented based on the example of the current financial crisis from year 2007 onwards. Without such a widespread action, which has followed the crisis, the current financial world could not be imagined. Due to FED's global influence, we must understand its operation and function in order to have a better insight into the economic field.

Razsežnosti svetovne gospodarske krize, ki je sledila finančni krize konec leta 2008, je opaziti v močnem zniževanju gospodarske rasti v vseh panogah in v pretežno v vseh svetovnih gospodarstvih. Učinek zniževanja gospodarske aktivnosti je razviden v zniževanju kreditnega potenciala bank, na omejevanju investicijskih vlaganj ter na povečevanju števila družb v insolvečnih postopkih. Oslabitve slabih terjatev bank v Sloveniji so po stanju 31.12.2011 znašale 1,16 mrd EUR kar je predstavljalo 81,5 % bruto dohodka bank. Tako imenovani slabi krediti bank ali neplačniki (NPL) se povečujejo, s tem pa tudi oslabitve terjatev bank. Slednje ima negativen vpliv tudi na kapital bank, kapitalsko ustreznost in potrebo po novih in novih dokapitalizacijah. Oslabitve terjatev bank so v obdobju od 2009 do 2011 porasle pretežno v sektorju finančnih holdingov, sektorju gradbeništva, prometa z nepremičninami in v sektorju predelovalne dejavnosti. V času konjukture in velike razpoložljivosti finančnih sredstev z nizko ceno denarja, so banke financirale projekte brez lastne udeležbe investitorjev. Tako kot projekti so bili tudi prevzemi financirani pretežno z dolžniškimi viri. Pri financiranju prevzemov v Sloveniji je imela veliko vlogo tudi vladajoča politična opcija. Porast prevzemnih aktivnosti je opazen še posebej v času visoke gospodarske rasti in višjih donosov. Odplačilo kreditnih obveznosti za prevzem je, predvsem pri managerskih prevzemih, temeljilo na denarnem toku ciljne tarče, saj so bili običajno prevzemniki projektne družbe, ustanovljene z minimalnim kapitalom in v lasti managerjev ciljne tarče. Vrednost zavarovanj je bila zaradi nepremičninskega balona in/ali precenjenih vrednostnih papirjev prenizka, da bi v primeru nastanka kritičnega dogodka krila izgube banke. Slednje so ob dodatnem zniževanju vrednosti zavarovanj zahtevale odplačila kreditov ali dodatna zavarovanja, ki jih prevzemniki niso mogli zagotoviti. Ob nižanju gospodarske aktivnosti ter posledično zniževanje prihodkov od prodaje in donosnosti, prevzemniki oziroma ciljna družba ni več zagotavljala odplačilne sposobnosti. Posledica prenizke vrednosti zavarovanj in nezmožnosti odplačevanja kreditnih obveznosti za prevzem so visoko oblikovane oslabitve terjatev bank, ki so financirale prevzem. Omejitve pri ustanavljanju zavarovanj pred izvedbo prevzema določa Zakon o prevzemih z dopolnitvami. Po izvedenem prevzemu so zavarovanja temeljila le na zastavi delnic, ki jih je izdala ciljna tarča in ne tudi na zastavi nepremičnega premoženja prevzete družbe. Zakon o prevzemih z dopolnitvami prevzemnike omejuje pri izvajanju prevzemnih aktivnosti ko določa najnižji prevzemni prag pri katerem morajo prevzemniki objaviti prevzemno ponudbo. Kršenje določil prevzemne zakonodaje je odvzem glasovalnih pravic, s čimer zakonodajalec posega v upravljalske aktivnosti v prevzeti družbi ter posledično na oblikovanje dividendne politike. Pogoje za statusne spremembe akterjev prevzemnih aktivnosti določa Zakon o gospodarskih družbah z dopolnitvami. Prevzemne aktivnosti se odvijajo v vseh gospodarskih okoljih in tudi ob zniževanju gospodarske aktivnosti. Odločitev poslovne banke o financiranju prevzema bi morala bila odvisna od poslovnega programa ciljne tarče, uspešnosti panoge v kateri deluje, od prodajnih trgov ter predvsem od dovolj visoke lastne udeležbe prevzemnika pri financiranju prevzemnih aktivnosti, ob zagotovitvi ustreznih zavarovanj za kreditne obveznosti. Manjše tveganje neuspešnega prevzema pa nosijo prevzemniki, katerih cilj je prevzem ciljne tarče s proizvodnim programom visoke dodane vrednosti in z diverzificiranim obsegom naročnikov. Znanstveno delo je sestavljeno iz dveh sklopov: teoretičnega in empiričnega. V teoretičnem delu smo proučili vrste prevzemov, zgodovino prevzemov in značilnosti prevzemnih aktivnosti v Sloveniji in način financiranja prevzemov s predstavljenim modelom prevzema. Teoretični del, ki se nanaša na proučevanje prevzemnih aktivnosti je dopolnjen s prakti From its beginning at the end of 2008, one could hardly have imagined that the financial crisis would have such an enormous negative impact on the global economy. A slowdown of economic growth across all industries and across almost all world economies has had a significant effect not only on the lending potential of banks and investment activity of companies, but also on the increasing insolvency levels. According to the data for the Slovene banking system as of 31 December 2011, the total amount of impairment losses on non-performing loans (NPLs) reached €1.16 billion, which accounted for 81.5 percent of the gross income of all Slovene banks. The volume of NPLs and the number of defaulting customers are increasing, as a result of which banks need to make additional loan loss provisions. This has an adverse effect on banks’ capital position and capital ratios, leading to banks being in constant need of fresh equity. In the period from 2009 to 2011, the largest proportion of impairment losses incurred by banks related to companies engaged in the following industries: the financial holding industry, the construction industry, the real estate agency industry, and the manufacturing industry. This situation has its roots in a time of economic boom and sufficient availability of funding at favourable borrowing rates, when banks were prepared to finance the projects without investors’ participation. Both investment projects and takeovers were financed mainly by debt, and it should be mentioned that the ruling political parties played an important role in the financing of takeovers in Slovenia. Takeover activities are usually more intense during periods of economic growth and higher returns. The repayment of loans taken to finance takeovers, especially management buyouts, was in the past based on the cash flow of the target company. This was due to the fact that, in most cases, the acquirers were special purpose entities, set up with a minimum capital and owned by managers of the target company. Once the real estate and/or stock price bubble burst, the value of collateral provided as security for loans granted to finance takeovers was too low to cover the losses banks would incur in the case of the occurrence of a critical event. To protect themselves, banks required the loans be repaid or additional collateral be offered, which acquirers were unable to provide. As a result of their reduced economic activity and a drop in their sales revenues and return, the acquirers or target companies failed to meet their repayment obligations. Because the value of collateral fell to below the level required and as the acquirers were not able to repay the loans they had taken to finance takeovers, the banks that granted these loans had to record high loan impairment losses. The restrictions with respect to establishing collateral prior to a takeover are regulated by the Takeover Act, as amended. Following a takeover, the collateral provided as security for loans consisted only of the pledge of shares issued by the target company instead of also including the pledge of immovable property owned by the company being taken over. The Takeover Act, as amended, imposes restrictions with respect to takeover activities by determining the takeover threshold at which acquirers are obliged to announce a takeover bid. If acquirers violate the provisions of legislation governing takeovers, the regulator may deprive them of their voting rights, thereby intervening in the governance of the acquired company and, consequently, in the formulation of its dividend policy. The conditions regulating status changes of the parties involved in takeover activities are set out in the Companies Act, as amended. Takeover activities take place in all economic environments, even in the times of economic slowdown. The decision of a commercial bank to finance a takeover should depend on numerous factors, including the business plan of the takeover target, the performance of the industry in which it operates, its sales markets and, in particular, on a high

Svetovno gospodarstvo se vedno bolj srečuje z neizogibnimi izzivi, ki so v času sodobne ekonomije vse bolj nepredvidljivi in imajo usodne posledice na globalno ekonomijo. Vzroki za tovrstne spremembe so številni, med najbolj razširjene sodi vsekakor globalizacija s svojo razvojno značilnostjo. Gre za nestanoviten proces, katerega bistvena značilost je v povezovanju. Zadnja tri desetletja lahko opišemo kot poglobljeno fazo globalizacije, njeni vidiki in vplivi se kažejo dolgoročno in se jim ni mogoče izogniti. Kot najbolj vidno posledico globalizacije štejemo finančne krize, ki so se prav zaradi tega procesa razvijale in širile bistveno drugače kot v preteklosti. Odzivanje in odpravljanje posledic finančnih kriz danes predstavlja pomemben dejavnik nacionalne konkurenčnosti. Spreminjanje stanja konkurenčnosti držav je tako povratni učinek vplivov ekonomskih, političnih in družbenih dejavnikov, ki jih narekuje sama globalizacija. V magistrski nalogi sem želela ugotoviti povezavo med globalizacijo, finančno krizo in konkurenčnostjo. Z analizo statističnih podatkov preučujem vpliv in obseg globalizacije na konkurenčnost držav. Neposredno primerjanje rezultatov, pridobljenih z različnimi merjenji, se je izkazalo za nepopolno. Povezava med globalizacijo in globalno konkurenčnostjo, na osnovi analiziranja indeksov obeh spremenljivk, je pozitivna in srednje močna. Vloga države pri doseganju nacionalne konkurenčnosti je vsekakor prisotna, vendar učinkovitosti, merjene z deležem vladne porabe na osnovi večletnih ukrepov, nisem dokazala. The global economy is increasingly faced with the inevitable challenges, which are in the modern economy unpredictable and have devastating consequences. The reasons for these changes are many, the most widespread is definitely globalization with its characteristic development. It is a volatile process, whose essential feature is integration. The last three decades can be described as a deep phase of globalization, its aspects and influences are long-term and cannot be avoided. As the most prominent result of globalization is the financial crisis, which have developed and expanded differently than in the past. Response and aftermath of the financial crisis is an important factor of national competitiveness. Changing the state of national competitiveness is affected by the impact of economic, political and social factors, dictated by globalization itself. In the master thesis I wanted to find a link between globalization, financial crisis and competitiveness. I have examined the impact and the extent of globalization on the competitiveness of countries with statistical data analysis. Direct comparison of the results obtained by different measurements turned out to be incomplete. The link between globalization and global competitiveness, based on the analysis of indices of the two variables, is positive and quite powerful. The role of government in achieving national competitiveness is definitely present, but efficiency, as measured by the share of government spending on the basis of multi-annual measures, is not proven.

Pri tipičnem lizinškem dogovoru o poslovnem najemu osebnega vozila, finančna inštitucija (najemodajalec) kupi novo vozilo od pooblaščenega trgovca in ga daje v najem fizični ali pravni osebi (najemojemalcu). Pri večini tovrstnih najemov gre za najeme zaprtega tipa (angl. closed-end lease), kar pomeni, da tveganje morebitne razlike med tržno vrednostjo predmeta najema in njegovim preostankom vrednosti v času izteka najemne pogodbe, ostaja pri najemodajalcu. Velik del od strani najemojemalca odplačanih najemnin skozi pogodbeno obdobje predstavlja razlika med nabavno vrednostjo predmeta najema in njegovim preostankom vrednosti. Preostanek vrednosti je tista vrednost vozila, ki ne bo pokrita z odplačilom mesečnih obrokov najemnine, ki jih bo najemodajalcu skozi trajanje najemne pogodbe odplačal najemojemalec. Je tudi neamortizirana nabavna vrednost vozila, zmanjšana za del depreciacije, nastale v času trajanja najemne pogodbe in je nenazadnje tudi ocena bodoče vrednosti vozila v času izteka pogodbe o poslovnem najemu, ki jo najemodajalec postavi neodvisno od tržne vrednosti le-tega. Ex-ante določeni kalkulirani preostanek vrednosti naj bi bil v idealnih okoliščinah enak njegovi kasnejši tržni oziroma dejanski odkupni vrednosti. Interes najemodajalca je namreč ustvarjati prihodke iz naslova poslovnega najema osebnega vozila in ne iz naslova njegove kasnejše (od)prodaje). S ciljem omejitve tržnega tveganja iz naslova morebitnih izgub pri odprodaji osnovnih sredstev v času izteka pogodbe o poslovnem najemu, mora tako le-ta posebno pozornost namenjati nekaterim dejavnikom, ki imajo na določanje odkupne vrednosti osebnega vozila pomembnejši vpliv. To magistrsko delo se je omejilo na podrobnejšo obravnavo vpliva znamke, barve, dodatne opreme, poškodb in emisij CO2 na slednjo. Izsledki raziskave na podlagi pridobljenih sekundarnih podatkov podjetja X, kažejo, da ima znamka pomemben vpliv na odkupno vrednost osebnih vozil, pri čemer velja dodati, da slovenski kupec še vedno bolj preferira vozilo nemškega, kot pa denimo francoskega porekla. Močna povezanost obstaja tudi med dodatno opremo in odkupno vrednostjo osebnih vozil, vendar je le-ta izrazitejša pri dražjih osebnih vozilih, dočim pri vozilih z nižjo odkupno vrednostjo na slednjo nima bistvenega vpliva. Glede priljubljenosti barv potrjuje izvedena raziskava podobna dognanja kot v tujini, saj pri izbiri barv pri osebnih vozilih v poslovnem najemu prednjačijo srebrna, siva, črna in bela vozila. Dodam lahko, da je povezanost med barvo in odkupno vrednostjo osebnih vozil večja v višjih tržnih segmentih. Kljub temu, da na podlagi pridobljenih rezultatov izvedene raziskave ni moč z gotovostjo trditi, da obstaja povezanost med emisijami CO2 in odkupno vrednostjo osebnih vozil v poslovnem najemu, bi na omenjeno temo raziskave gotovo veljalo nadaljevati tudi v prihodnje, saj evropske uredbe o določitvi standardov emisijskih vrednosti za nove osebne avtomobile v sklopu celostnega pristopa EU za zmanjšanje emisij CO2 na področju prometa, med drugim opredeljujejo velike olajšave za avtomobile z manjšimi izpusti, kot tudi za tiste, katerih ciljne vrednosti specifičnih emisij bodo zmanjšane zaradi uporabe inovativnih tehnologij. Ocenjujem, da bo navedeno imelo pomemben vpliv pri nakupnih odločitvah glede okolju prijazn(ejš)ih vozil v prihodnosti. In a typical operational lease agreement for passenger car, financial institution (lessor) purchases new vehicle from an authorized dealer and leases it to a private person or a company (lessee). In most cases, those are a closed-end leases, meaning, a risk of eventual difference between the market value of the leased asset and it's residual value at the end of such leasing contract, stays with the lessor. The difference between purchase value of the leased asset and it's residual value represents a significant part of monthly instalments charged to the lessee throughout the leasing period. Residual value is the part of vehicle's value, which will not be covered by paid monthly instalments to the lessor and is as well unamortized purchase value of the asset, reduced for the part of depreciation in the period of the vehicle usage and - last but not least – it is an estimation of the future value of leased vehicle in the time of contract expiration, which the lessor will set independently from it's future market value. Ex-ante definition of the calculated residual value of the passenger car should in ideal circumstances equal it's future market value or better, it's buy-out value. Namely, lessor's interest is making revenues from vehicle's operational lease and not from it's later used car sales. In order to limit the market risk deriving from eventual losses from sales of the asset at the expiration of lease contract, the lessor should pay his close attention to certain factors, which influence setting the buy-out value of passenger cars more significantly. This thesis has limited itself to more detailed analysis of make's, colour's, additional equipment's, damage's and CO2 emission's influence on passenger car residual value setting. Findings of the concluded research based on secondary data of Company X show, that make affects the future buy-out value of passenger cars importantly, while Slovenian buyer stil prefers german makes more than for example, french ones. Strong correlations exists between passenger car's additional equipment and it's buy-out value, but it's more explicit in more expensive cars, while in cheaper passenger cars additional equpiment does not have strong influence on used car buy-out value. On the passenger car colour popularity, the research has came to similar conclusions as abroad, as in operational lease of passenger cars the lessees have most frequently chosen silver, grey, black and white as the vehicle's exterior colour. We can confirm, that there is corelation between passenger car colour and it's buy-out value and it's stronger in passenger cars from higher market segments. Eventhough, the findings of concluded research can not fully confirm the correlation between CO2 emissions and future buy-out value in operational lease of passenger cars, the focus of future research on the subject should be concluded, as european decrees on standard emmisions values in new passenger cars as a part of integrated EU approach to reduce emmisions on the area of traffic, predict high allowances for passenger cars with reduced specific emmisions as well as for those using innovative technologies. It is to be expected this would have an important influence on purchase decisions of environmentally friendlier vehicles in the future.

O dolžniški krizi se je v zadnjem obdobju postala aktualna tema, zato sem se tudi odločila, da se bom malo bolj poglobila v to. Dolžniška kriza v Italiji se je začela v drugi polovici leta 2011 zaradi tega, ker je gospodarstvo Italije rastlo po povprečni stopnji 2% na leto v zadnjem desetletju, kar je povečevalo javni dolg. Država ima večje odhodke kot pa dohodke, kar ustvarja deficit v proračunu. Vzrokov za nastanek dolžniške krize je veliko, mednje spadajo nizka stopnja produktivnosti, oslabljena konkurenčnost, davčne obremenitve, prevelike regionalne razlike ipd. Italija ima še vedno nekaj vrhunskih podjetij in blagovnih znamk. Zaradi togih predpisov so v Italiji sicer razširjena mikro družinska podjetja. Če želi Italija zmanjšati javni dolg bo morala spodbuditi poslovno okolje, kjer bodo podjetja lahko doživela razcvet. Če bodo podjetja zacvetela, potem bo tudi gospodarstvo bolj aktivno. Prišlo bo do povečanja produktivnosti, konkurenčnosti in posledično do gospodarske rasti. V primeru gospodarske rasti, povečanja BDP, se lahko tudi javni dolg lažje odplačuje oziroma servisira. Ampak to ne bo mogoče brez strukturnih reform in sprejetih določenih varčevalnih ukrepov italijanske vlade. Pomembno vlogo pa igrata tudi dve instituciji, ECB in MDS, ki glede na svoje cilje in naloge, pomagata Italiji pri reševanju te krize. Lately, the debt crisis has become a much heated debate, which is also the reason why I decided to look more thoroughly into this matter. The debt crisis in Italy started in the second half of year 2011 due to Italy's 2% of year's economic growth in the past decade, thus leading to the increase of the government debt. The country has more expenditures than incomes, which leads to the budget deficit. Reasons for the debt crisis are many, among them the low level of productivity, weakened competitiveness, the tax burden, too many regional differences etc. Italy still has some world-wide known companies and brands. Due to rigid regulations in Italy, the micro family businesses are widely expanded. If Italy wants to decrease the government debt, she will have to encourage the business environment, so that the companies can flourish. If this happens, the economy shall be more active, this referring to the increase of productivity, competitiveness and consequently to the economic growth. Should there be an economic growth or the increase of the GDP, the public debt can be paid off easier. However, this cannot be possible without structure reforms and the Italian government taking certain austerity measures. An important part have also two institution, ECB and IMF, who help Italy solving its debt crisis, according to their own goals and tasks.

Namen diplomskega dela je bil predstaviti možnosti financiranja ustanovitve podjetja v Sloveniji (novi članici EU), Veliki Britaniji (kot stari članici EU) in na Hrvaškem (kot kandidatki za vstop v EU) s poudarkom na tveganem kapitalu ter ugotoviti, katera država je najugodnejša za ustanovitev in razvoj podjetja. V teoretičnem delu sem opredelil vlogo nastajajočih podjetij in opisal najznačilnejše pravno-formalne oblike podjetij. Nato sem predstavil dolžniške in lastniške vire financiranja, ki bi jih potencialni iskalci lahko uporabili pri ustanavljanju podjetja na teh trgih. Ker je večina virov podjetnikom dobro poznana, sem podrobneje opisal finančni vir, imenovan tvegani kapital. Pregledal sem njegovo zgodovino in sedanjost ter opisal trenutne razmere na davčnem področju v povezavi z investicijami tveganega kapitala. Če sem v teoretičnem delu obravnaval posamezne segmente v nastajanju podjetja, sem se v empiričnem delu osredotočil na konkretne trge tveganega kapitala v Sloveniji, na Hrvaškem in v Veliki Britaniji. Želel sem pridobiti jasno sliko o posameznem trgu, količini in stopnji investicije tveganega kapitala v podjetja. Na koncu sem jih primerjal, da bi ugotovil, kje so najugodnejši pogoji za ustanovitev in razvoj podjetja. Purpose of this study was to present the funding opportunities for starting a company in Slovenia (the new EU Member State), the UK (as the old member of the EU) and Croatia (as a candidate for accession to the EU) with a focus on venture capital, and to find out which country is most suitable to the business creation and development. In the theoretical part I have identified the role of emerging companies and describe the most typical legal forms of companies. Then I presented the debt and equity sources of funding that would be suitable for funding seekers in these markets. Since most of the sources are common known, I explained in details of private equity and venture capital funding. I checked the history and present and describe the current situation in the field of taxation in connection with venture capital investments. If was explaining the individual segments of a company funding and creation in the theoretical work, I was focusing on the specific risk capital markets in Slovenia, Croatia and Great Britain in the empirical part. I wanted to get a clear picture of the relevant market, the quantity and level of venture capital investment in the companies on those markets. Finally, I compared them to determine where the most favorable conditions for the establishment and development of the company with the help of venture capital.

Kot sem prikazal skozi diplomski seminar imamo v Sloveniji na področju izdaje dolžniških inštrumentov še veliko neizpolnjenih alternativ, ki se jih banke oklepajo in se jih ne poslužujejo kot ostale banke v Evropi. Naše poslovne banke se še naprej držijo enostavnega pridobivanja kapitala, financiranja z depozitnimi vlogami prebivalcev. Kar se tiče sindiciranih posojil, ki imajo številne prednosti so se jih naše banke posluževale, vendar so se razmere na trgih zaostrile kar je prizadelo tudi naše banke. Krivci za to so tudi znižanja bonitetnih ocen, ki smo jih bili deležni s strani ameriških bonitetnih hiš. Tudi pri nastalem kreditnem krču v Sloveniji bosta morale država in banke najti skupni jezik, ker nastala situacija pri financiranju podjetjem škoduje samo zaposlenim in viša brezposelnost, ki še narašča. Torej pridobljeni kapital s pomočjo različnih emisij obveznic na trg morajo banke plasirati v zdrave dele gospodarstva , da oživijo finančno krizo, ki je nastala v Evropi. Pri tem pomaga tudi ECB z raznimi odkupi obveznic posameznih držav. As I show through a graduate seminar in Slovenia we have on a debt issue has a lot of blank alternatives, that is surrounded by banks and are not relying as other banks in Europe. Our commercial banks continue to hold easy to raise capital funds through deposits of the population. As for syndicated loans, which have many advantages they have resorted our bank, but the situation has become worse in the markets which has affected our banks. Culprits for this are downgrades. Also created a credit crunch in Slovenia will have to state banks and find a common language, since the situation arose in financing companies only damages to employees and raises unemployment, and growing. So capital raised through the emissions of different bonds in the market, banks must qualify for the healthy parts of the economy to pick up the financial crisis, which originated in Europe. This also helps the ECB buying bonds with various national.

Vsako podjetje je ustanovljeno z željo po opravljanju določene poslovne dejavnosti in posledično z doseganjem zastavljenih ciljev, ki so običajno finančne narave, to je željo po zaslužku. Tako je tudi nastalo podjetje R-Trade d.o.o, ki ga bomo v nadaljevanju obravnavali. V uvodu diplomske naloge smo opredelili področje problema, s katerim se bomo v nadaljevanju ukvarjali. Pri tem smo si zastavili nekatere predpostavke in omejitve, s katerimi smo se soočali med pripravo naloge. Nato smo definirali pojem finančnih tokov in jih podrobneje opredelili. V nadaljevanju smo razčlenili finančne tokove po dejavnosti in opisali pomen in načrtovanje le- teh. Nadaljevali smo s predstavitvijo temeljnih računovodskih izkazov, ki so osnovni vir informacij za ocenjevanje uspešnosti podjetja. V nadaljevanju smo predstavili finančno funkcijo podjetja, ki je ena najpomembnejših funkcij podjetja, saj obravnava druge funkcije podjetja z denarnega vidika. Nato smo opisali, kako stroški vplivajo na finančne tokove. Sledila je opredelitev kazalnikov finančnih tokov. V zaključku poglavja smo predstavili kakšen vpliv ima na finančne tokove plačilna nedisciplina. V praktičnem delu diplomske naloge smo predstavili podjetje, ki je predmet raziskave. Opisali smo kako upravljajo s sredstvi. Nato smo opredelili terjatve do kupcev doma in v tujini, ter obveznosti do dobaviteljev, na domačem in tujem trgu. Na kratko smo predstavili kako v podjetju spremljajo in obvladujejo stroške. V petem poglavju smo se lotili presojanja uspešnosti podjetja tako, da smo izračunali nekatere kazalnike finančnih tokov in dobljene rezultate interpretirali. Nato smo predstavili in opisali računovodske izkaze in sicer bilanco stanja, izkaz finančnega izida. Poglavje smo zaključili z predstavitvijo statistike finančnih računov. V sklepnem delu smo navedli ugotovitve, do katerih smo prišli med pripravo diplomske naloge in navedli predloge, katere podjetje ne sme zanemarjati pri nadaljnjem poslovanju in upravljanju finančnih tokov da bo lahko tudi v prihodnosti nadaljevalo svojo uspešno pot na trgu. Every company is established with the wish to conduct a certain business activity and to subsequently meet set objectives, mostly objectives of a financial nature, i.e. with the wish to earn money. That is also how the company R-Trade d.o.o., which will be discussed in the course of this thesis, was created. The introduction determines the field of the problem that will be dealt with, setting some hypotheses and limitations that were encountered during the preparation of the thesis. This is followed by a definition of the term cash flow and a precise specification of these flows. The thesis then classifies cash flows by activity and describes the meaning and planning of cash flows. Next, it looks at the basic financial statements, which are the key source of information when assessing a company’s performance. After that, the thesis presents the financial function of a company, which is one of the most important functions of a company as it deals with other functions of the company from the financial point of view. What follows is a description of how costs influence cash flows and a definition of cash flow indicators. The conclusion of the chapter considers what influence the late-payment culture has on cash flows. The practical part of the thesis introduces the company that is the subject of the analysis. It describes the manner in which it manages resources. Then it determines its financial claims against domestic and foreign buyers as well as its obligations towards suppliers in the domestic and foreign market. It briefly presents the way in which costs are monitored and managed in the company. Chapter five provides an assessment of the company’s performance by calculating certain cash flow indicators and interpreting the results. Next, it presents and describes financial statements: the balance sheet and the cash flow statement. The chapter is concluded with a presentation of the statistics of financial accounts. The final part presents conclusions arising from this thesis and offers suggestions that the company should not ignore in its subsequent business operations and in the management of cash flows so that it will be able to continue on its path of success in the market.

V magistrskem delu so predstavljeni pojmi povezani z dokapitalizacijo kot tudi razlogi za dokapitalizacije bank (širitev, kapitalska ustreznost, ….). V teoretičnem delu so predstavljeni vzroki za dokapitalizacije bank kot tudi vplivi Basela III in zahtev EBA na odločitev pri dokapitalizacijah bank. Magistrsko delo zavzema tudi kronološki opis dogajanja na mednarodnih kapitalskih trgih v času finančne krize in posledični vpliv na dokapitalizacije bank. Predstavljeni pa so tudi zakonski vidiki dokapitalizacije pri bankah v Sloveniji, kjer je vključena tudi mednarodna zakonodaja ob iskanju svežega kapitala na mednarodnih trgih v primeru Nove KBM d.d. V magistrskem delu je podrobneje predstavljena dokapitalizacija in vstop na varšavsko borzo pri Novi KBM d.d. Analizirana so gibanja bilančnih vsot bank v Sloveniji, Avstriji, Madžarskem, Hrvaškem, Italiji in na Poljskem. Raziskava in analiza obsega naslednje dokapitalizacije pri bankah v Sloveniji Nova LB d.d. in Nova KBM d.d., v Avstrija Raiffeisen Bank International AG in Erste Group AG, na Madžarska OTP Bank PLC in K&H Bank, na Hrvaška Zagrebačka Banka d.d. in Privredna Banka Zagreb d.d., v Italija Unicredit SPA in Intesa Sanpaolo ter na Poljskem PKO Bank Polski SA in Bank Pekao SA. Najpomembnejši del magistrskega dela predstavlja primerjalna analiza bank in dokapitalizacij bank v kateri je dokazano, da so cene delnic bank po dokapitalizaciji pred finančno krizo rastle, po začetku finančne kriza pa so dokapitalizacije bank negativno vplivale na ceno delnice. Z analizo in raziskavo je prikazan vpliv kapitalskega trga na postavljanje cene v dokapitalizacijah. Zaključek raziskave pa razkriva, da bodo dokapitalizacije bank potrebne dokler ne bo gospodarstvo in posredno banke zaživele samostojno brez pomoči države in centralnih bank oziroma Evropske centralne banke. In this master's thesis concepts associated with recapitalization are presented, as well as reasons for the recapitalization of banks (expansion, capital adequacy, ....). The theoretical part presents the reasons for the recapitalization of banks as well as the impact of Basel III requirements and the EBA decision on the recapitalization of banks. Master's thesis shows the chronological description of developments on international capital markets during the financial crisis and the its consequent impact on bank recapitalization. The legal aspects of the recapitalization of banks in Slovenia, which operate according to international law when seeking fresh capital on international markets, as is clearly shown in the case of Nova KBM d.d., are presented as well. In the master's thesis recapitalization in Nova KBM d.d is presented as well as its entry into the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The trends on total bank assets in Slovenia, Austria, Hungary, Croatia, Italy and Poland are analysed. Research and analysis include the following: recapitalization of banks in Slovenia in Nova LB d.d. and Nova KBM d.d. in Austria, in Raiffeisen Bank International AG and Erste Group AG, in Hungarian OTP Bank PLC and K & H Bank, in Croatia in Zagrebacka Bank d.d. and Privredna Banka Zagreb d.d., in Italy in UniCredit SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo, Poland PKO Bank Polski SA and Bank Pekao SA. The most important part of the thesis presents a comparative analysis of banks and the recapitalization of the banks where it is demonstrated that the share prices of the banks recapitalized before the financial crisis grew and after the financial crisis recapitalization of the banks has had a negative impact on the share price. The influence of setting the price in the recapitalized capital market is shown in this analysis and study. Completion of the survey reveals that the recapitalization of the banks will be needed until the economy and the banks are rehabilitated (function) exclusively by themselves without any help of governments and central banks or European Central Bank.

V okviru diplomske naloge sem predstavil različne modele določanja deviznih tečajev, ki skupaj tvorijo temeljno analizo. Na eni strani so to klasični modeli h katerim prištevamo: pariteto kupne moči, pariteto obrestne mere, monetarno ter plačilno bilančno teorijo. Na drugi strani sem uporabil novejše pristope pri določanju deviznih tečajev, primer katerega je napovedovanje deviznih tečajev s pomočjo novic. Poleg splošnih teorij determiniranja deviznega tečaja sem osvetlil tudi najpomembnejše fundamentalne indikatorje za območje EU in ZDA. Ugotovil in poiskal sem razloge za prevladujoč položaj ameriškega dolarja v primerjavi z evrom. Na primeru EUR/USD sem testiral ali je gibanje valutnega para v skladu s temeljno teorijo. Gibanje valutnega para sem primerjal tako z vidika klasičnim modelov determiniranja deviznih tečajev, kot tudi posameznih makroekonomskih komponent. Ugotovil sem, da je pri večini modelov prišlo do precejšnjih neskladij, skozi različna obdobja, gibanje valutnega para pa je pogosto tudi v nasprotju z izbrano teorijo. Tako z gotovostjo na primeru EUR/USD ne morem potrditi nobene izmed teorij. Tudi številne empirične študije ugotavljajo, da prihaja do odstopanj med modeli ter dejanskim gibanjem tečajev. Razloge za takšno stanje gre verjetno iskati v kompleksnosti in nepredvidljivosti valutnega trga, predvsem pa v udeležencih samih ter njihovem špekulativnem ravnanju. Značilno za teorije deviznih tečajev je, da so se spreminjale, oziroma dopolnjevale ter nastajale vedno nove, kljub temu pa do danes ne razpolagamo s končno teorijo pri pojasnjevanju deviznih tečajev. Teorija, ki bi lahko zanesljivo napovedovala oziroma analizirala spremembe deviznih tečajev ne obstaja, saj gre za kompleksno prepletenost, kjer vseh informacij ni mogoče zajeti. To potrjujejo tudi empirične raziskave. I have presented a variety of exchange rate models in this paper, which are the basis of the fundamental analysis. There are classic exchange rate models like: purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, the monetary approach and balance of payments approach. And there are recent models of exchange rates, like the news approach. I have presented some important US and EU fundamental indicators, and also the reasons for the dominant position of the US dollar against euro. In the case of EUR/USD I have tested the exchange rate movement for fundamental behavior. I have compared some classic models of exchange rate determination and also some important macroeconomic components. I have found out that in the case of most theoretical models there is some discordance between particular periods. The exchange rate movement is also often contradictory with the selected exchange rate model. In the case of EUR/USD I can’t confirm any of the tested exchange rate model with certainty. Also many empirical studies have found out that there are some differences between exchange rate movements and their theoretical framework. We can search for causes in the complexity and unpredictability of the forex market, and particular in the speculative behavior of the participants. Exchange rate models have been changing over different time periods and often there have been announced new ones. Despite of that, to this day not even one exchange rate model is capable to fully predict exchange rate movements. Empirical studies also confirm that.

Na prvi pogled sta si krizi 1929 in 2007 precej podobni. Obe sta se pričeli na finančnih trgih, obe v ZDA, v mesecih in dnevih pred krizo je v obeh primerih prišlo do dogodkov, ki so vsaj moralno sporni. Površen opazovalec bi lahko celo trdil, da se iz primera velike gospodarske krize finančni svet ni ničesar naučil. A vendar ob natančnejšem opazovanju opazimo razlike – tako v naravi krize kot v ukrepanju pristojnih institucij. Če je v veliki gospodarski krizi mehanizem po katerem se je kriza prenašala iz ZDA na druge države, bil zlati standard, je mehanizem prenosa med zadnjo krizo predstavljala globalizacija in medsebojna prepletenost gospodarstva, s tem pa tudi finančnih trgov. Po borznem zlomu v oktobru 1929 je newyorška podružnica ameriške centralne banke sprostila ogromno likvidnih sredstev. Centralna banka je takšno dejanje, čeprav nejevoljna, odobrila, je pa do leta 1933, ko so ZDA zapustile zlati standard, vodila bolj ali manj restriktivno politiko. Raziskave v desetletjih so pokazale, da je takšno ravnanje bila napaka. Po krizi je ameriška centralna banka dobila zakonsko podlago, da pomaga bankam nečlanicam sistema centralnega bančništva in tudi kateremu koli trgu ali posamezni družbi, katere moteno delovanje bi pomenilo sistemsko tveganje. Med zadnjo krizo je ameriška centralna banka to zakonsko podlago izdatno uporabila in tako ni ponovila preteklih napak. S številnimi programi je preprečila resno zmanjšanje monetarne baze, s tem pa tudi padanje cen. V primerih, ko ni mogla preprečiti propada pomembne finančne institucije (npr. Lehman Brothers), je ukrepala hitro in odločno, da bi preprečila negativen vpliv na druge družbe in podjetja. Kot smo pokazali je bil zato tudi vpliv finančne krize na realno gospodarstvo bistveno manjši kot med veliko gospodarsko krizo. Zgledu ameriške centralne banke je, kot smo predstavili, odločno sledila tudi ECB. Z ukrepanjem je pomembno vplivala na finančne, še posebej pa denarne trge. Z valutnimi swapi z ameriško centralno banko (in tudi nekaterimi drugimi), je ECB zagotovila, da je bilo na voljo dovolj sredstev v tuji valuti, hkrati pa je uspela uresničevati svoje osnovno poslanstvo – poskrbeti za stabilnost cen. V nasprotju s krizo iz tridesetih let prejšnjega stoletja, ni prišlo do deflacije (ki je takrat povzročila toliko težav), hkrati pa je poskrbela, da sredstva, ki jih je posredovala različnim finančnim institucijam, niso povzročila rasti cen. ECB je posredovala tudi ob nastanku krize državnega dolga. Učinke tega posredovanja bo še potrebno preučiti, skoraj zagotovo pa ti ukrepi ne bodo zadostovali in bodo potrebne korenite spremembe na področjih, ki ne sodijo v domeno centralnega bančništva, niti finančnega sistema kot takega. Ob tako obširnem posredovanju centralnih bank, se pojavljajo dvomi o smotrnosti takšnega ravnanja, še posebej, ko gre za neposredno pomoč centralne banke posameznemu podjetju. Takšna praksa bi namreč lahko pomenila, da bodo velika podjetja v bodoče pripravljena prevzemati večje tveganje. Odgovorni v centralnih bankah se seveda zavedajo takšnega tveganja, a hkrati dodajajo, da ob pomanjkanju drugih rešitev, nimajo veliko izbire saj bi propad pomembnih podjetij povzročil še hujše posledice. Za primer nam lahko služi propad Lehman Brothers, kjer je bila centralna banka prisiljena v obsežne operacije, da je omejila vpliv na druge družbe (denimo AIG), hkrati pa je bila deležna hudih kritik, ker je dovolila propad. Naloga bodočih finančnih strokovnjakov je, da najdejo boljši način za ukrepanje v takih primerih. Do takrat bodo centralne banke po svetu prisiljene posredovati v primerih, kjer bi v nasprotnem primeru lahko prišlo do sistemskega tveganja. On first look financial crisis of 2007 was similar to that of 1929. Both started in financial markets, both in United States and there were events, that were, at least morally questionable. Vague onlooker could claim that no lessons were learned from the experience of the Great crash. But more in-depth study reveals many differences – both in crisis itself as in actions taken by responsible institutions. While during great depression mechanism for transmission of crisis from United States to other economies was gold standard, during recent crisis financial turmoil was transmitted by globalization and intertwining of economies and with that, financial markets. After Great crash, New York Federal Reserve Bank provided liquidity, but after that event Federal Reserve conducted tight monetary policy until bank holiday and subsequent departure from gold in 1933. Studies in decades after great depression have shown that tight monetary policy was a mistake. After great depression Federal Reserve gained authority to help non-member banks or even specific market or company if failure would pose serious systemic risk. During recent crisis Federal Reserve did use that authority and so did not repeat mistakes of Great depression. In cases where Federal Reserve could not avert failure of an important financial institution (like in case of Lehman Brothers), Federal Reserve acted swiftly and decisively to limit fall-out of such failure. Thus impact of financial crises on broader economy was greatly reduced. ECB followed Federal Reserve example. Its actions decisively influenced financial and in particular money markets. By opening swap lines with Federal Reserve (and some other central banks), ECB ensured there was enough dollar liquidity in European markets. In stark contrast to great depression there was no deflation (which caused so many problems during Great depression), at the same time ECB made sure its actions did not cause serious inflationary tensions.

Zaradi vse večjega pomena deviznega tečaja za države, ki sodelujejo v mednarodni menjavi blaga, je postalo poznavanje zakonitosti njegovega gibanja izredno pomemben dejavnik. Šele z zadostnim poznavanjem osnov deviznega tečaja je mogoče razumeti vzroke za njegove spremembe kakor tudi poizkusiti napovedati njegovo gibanje v prihodnje. Analiza gibanja deviznega tečaja EUR/USD je pokazala veliko dejavnikov in njihovo medsebojno prepletenost pri vplivanju na oblikovanje deviznega tečaja. Pokazala pa se je tudi nezmožnost osnovnih teoretičnih modelov za napovedovanje prihodnjega gibanja deviznega tečaja, da pravilno napovejo prihodnje spremembe. Because of ever growing importance of the exchange rate between countries, which take place in the international trade, understanding how these rates are is an important factor. Only with sufficient knowledge of what influences an exchange rate can you understand the reasons for its changing and hope to forecast its future moves. The analysis of EUR/USD exchange rate movements showed a huge number of factors and their mutual interaction, that effect the forming of an exchange rate. The analysis also showed a fundamental inability of basic exchange rate determination theories to forecast future movement of the exchange rate.