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We evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM 2.5 pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a ~ 2.6% global reduction in PM 2.5 cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a ~3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for ~250k deaths and ~6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by ~80%, equating to a ~3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution.

Natural gas is seen by many as the future of American energy: a fuel that can provide energy independence and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the process. However, there has also been confusion about the climate implications of increased use of natural gas for electric power and transportation. We propose and illustrate the use of technology warming potentials as a robust and transparent way to compare the cumulative radiative forcing created by alternative technologies fueled by natural gas and oil or coal by using the best available estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from each fuel cycle (i.e., production, transportation and use). We find that a shift to compressed natural gas vehicles from gasoline or diesel vehicles leads to greater radiative forcing of the climate for 80 or 280 yr, respectively, before beginning to produce benefits. Compressed natural gas vehicles could produce climate benefits on all time frames if the well-to-wheels CH(4) leakage were capped at a level 45-70% below current estimates. By contrast, using natural gas instead of coal for electric power plants can reduce radiative forcing immediately, and reducing CH(4) losses from the production and transportation of natural gas would produce even greater benefits. There is a need for the natural gas industry and science community to help obtain better emissions data and for increased efforts to reduce methane leakage in order to minimize the climate footprint of natural gas.

Heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) present a growing energy and environmental concern worldwide. These vehicles rely almost entirely on diesel fuel for propulsion and create problems associated with local pollution, climate change, and energy security. Given these problems and the expected global expansion of HDVs in transportation sectors, industry and governments are pursuing biofuels and natural gas as potential alternative fuels for HDVs. Using recent lifecycle datasets, this paper evaluates the energy and emissions impacts of these fuels in the HDV sector by conducting a total fuel-cycle (TFC) analysis for Class 8 HDVs for six fuel pathways: (1) petroleum to ultra low sulfur diesel; (2) petroleum and soyoil to biodiesel (methyl soy ester); (3) petroleum, ethanol, and oxygenate to e-diesel; (4) petroleum and natural gas to Fischer-Tropsch diesel; (5) natural gas to compressed natural gas; and (6) natural gas to liquefied natural gas. TFC emissions are evaluated for three greenhouse gases (GHGs) (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane) and five other pollutants (volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, and sulfur oxides), along with estimates of total energy and petroleum consumption associated with each of the six fuel pathways. Results show definite advantages with biodiesel and compressed natural gas for most pollutants, negligible benefits for e-diesel, and increased GHG emissions for liquefied natural gas and Fischer-Tropsch diesel (from natural gas).

This paper applies a geospatial network optimization model to explore environmental, economic, and time-of-delivery tradeoffs associated with the application of marine vessels as substitutes for heavy-duty trucks operating in the Great Lakes region. The geospatial model integrates U.S. and Canadian highway, rail, and waterway networks to create an intermodal network and characterizes this network using temporal, economic, and environmental attributes (including emissions of carbon dioxide, particulate matter, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, volatile organic compounds, and nitrogen oxides). A case study evaluates tradeoffs associated with containerized traffic flow in the Great Lakes region, demonstrating how choice of freight mode affects the environmental performance of movement of goods. These results suggest opportunities to improve the environmental performance of freight transport through infrastructure development, technology implementation, and economic incentives.

We apply the global climate model ECHAM5/MESSy1-MADE with detailed aerosol and cloud microphysics to study the impact of shipping on tropospheric aerosol burdens, clouds, and the radiation budget for four near-future ship emission policy scenarios for the year 2012. We compare a "No Control" scenario with global sulfur limits and regionally applied reductions. We show that, if no control measures are taken, near surface sulfate increases by about 10-20% over the main transoceanic shipping routes from 2002 to 2012. A reduction of the maximum fuel sulfur (S) content allowed within 200 nautical miles of coastal areas ("global emission control areas") to 0.5% or 0.1% (5000 or 1000 ppm S, respectively) results in a distinctive reduction in near surface sulfate from shipping in coastal regions compared with the year 2002. The model results also show that if emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) remain unabated, a reduction of the fuel sulfur content favors a strong increase in aerosol nitrate (NO3) which could counteract up to 20% of the decrease in sulfate mass achieved by sulfur emission reductions. The most important impact of shipping on the radiation budget is related to the modification of low maritime stratus clouds resulting in an increased reflectivity and enhanced shortwave cloud forcing. The direct aerosol effect from shipping is small. Our study shows that one can expect a less negative (less cooling) radiative forcing due to reductions in the current fuel sulfur content of ocean-going ships. The global annual average net cloud forcings due to shipping (year 2012) are in the range of -0.27 to -0.58 W/m2 with regional cooling occurring most over the remote oceans.

Concerns about health effects due to emissions from ships have magnified international policy debate regarding low-sulfur fuel mandates for marine fuel. Policy discussions center on setting sulfur content levels and the geographic specification of low-sulfur fuel use. We quantify changes in premature mortality due to emissions from ships under several sulfur emissions control scenarios. We compare a 2012 No Control scenario (assuming 2.7% or 27 000 ppm S) with three emissions control scenarios. Two control scenarios represent cases where marine fuel is limited to 0.5% S (5000 ppm) and 0.1% S (1000 ppm) content, respectively, within 200 nautical miles of coastal areas. The third control scenario represents a global limit of 0.5% S. We apply the global climate model ECHAMSSy-MESSy1-MADE to geospatial emissions inventories to determine worldwide concentrations of particular matter (PM2.5) from ocean going vessels. Using those PM2.5 concentrations in cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentration-risk functions and population models, we estimate annual premature mortality. Without control, our central estimate is approximately 87 000 premature deaths annually in 2012. Coastal area control scenarios reduce premature deaths by approximately 33 500 for the 0.5% case and approximately 43 500 for the 0.1% case. Where fuel sulfur content is reduced globally to 0.5% S, premature deaths are reduced by approximately 41 200. These results provide important support that global health benefits are associated with low-sulfur marine fuels, and allow for relative comparison of the benefits of alternative control strategies.

This paper presents an energy and environmental network analysis model to explore tradeoffs associated with freight transport. The geospatial model uses an intermodal network built by the authors to connect various modes (rail, road, water) via intermodal terminals. Routes along the network are characterized not only by temporal and distance attributes, but also by cost, energy, and emissions attributes (including emissions of carbon dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur oxides, volatile organic compounds, and oxides of nitrogen). Decision-makers can use the model to explore tradeoffs among alternative route selection across different modal combinations, and to identify optimal routes for objectives that feature energy and environmental parameters (e.g., minimize carbon dioxide emissions). The model is demonstrated with three case studies of freight transport along the U.S. eastern seaboard.

Worldwide concerns about sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions from ships are motivating the replacement of marine residual oil (RO) with cleaner, lower-sulfur fuels, such as marine gas oil (MGO) and marine diesel oil (MDO). Vessel operators can use MGO and MDO directly or blended with RO to achieve environmental and economic objectives. Although expected to be much cleaner in terms of criteria pollutants, these fuels require additional energy in the upstream stages of the fuel cycle (i.e., fuel processing and refining), and thus raise questions about the net impacts on greenhouse gas emissions (primarily carbon dioxide [CO2]) because of production and use. This paper applies the Total Energy and Environmental Analysis for Marine Systems (TEAMS) model to conduct a total fuel cycle analysis of RO, MGO, MDO, and associated blends for a typical container ship. MGO and MDO blends achieve significant (70-85%) SOx emissions reductions compared with RO across a range of fuel quality and refining efficiency assumptions. We estimate CO2 increases of less than 1% using best estimates of fuel quality and refinery efficiency parameters and demonstrate how these results vary based on parameter assumptions. Our analysis suggests that product refining efficiency influences the CO2 tradeoff more than differences in the physical and energy parameters of the alternative fuels, suggesting that modest increases in CO2 could be offset by efficiency improvements at some refineries. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of greenhouse gas tradeoffs associated with fuel switching and other emissions control policies.

Epidemiological studies consistently link ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM) to negative health impacts, including asthma, heart attacks, hospital admissions, and premature mortality. We model ambient PM concentrations from oceangoing ships using two geospatial emissions inventories and two global aerosol models. We estimate global and regional mortalities by applying ambient PM increases due to ships to cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentration-risk functions and population models. Our results indicate that shipping-related PM emissions are responsible for approximately 60,000 cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths annually, with most deaths occurring near coastlines in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia. Under current regulation and with the expected growth in shipping activity, we estimate that annual mortalities could increase by 40% by 2012.

We model cost-effectiveness of control strategies for reducing SO2 emissions from U.S. foreign commerce ships traveling in existing European or hypothetical U.S. West Coast SO(x) Emission Control Areas (SECAs) under international maritime regulations. Variation among marginal costs of control for individual ships choosing between fuel-switching and aftertreatment reveals cost-saving potential of economic incentive instruments. Compared to regulations prescribing low sulfur fuels, a performance-based policy can save up to $260 million for these ships with 80% more emission reductions than required because least-cost options on some individual ships outperform standards. Optimal simulation of a market-based SO2 control policy for approximately 4,700 U.S. foreign commerce ships traveling in the SECAs in 2002 shows that SECA emissions control targets can be achieved by scrubbing exhaust gas of one out of ten ships with annual savings up to $480 million over performance-based policy. A market-based policy could save the fleet approximately $63 million annually under our best-estimate scenario. Spatial evaluation of ship emissions reductions shows that market-based instruments can reduce more SO2 closer to land while being more cost-effective for the fleet. Results suggest that combining performance requirements with market-based instruments can most effectively control SO2 emissions from ships.

Regional and global air pollution from marine transportation is a growing concern. In discerning the sources of such pollution, researchers have become interested in tracking where along the total fuel life cycle these emissions occur. In addition, new efforts to introduce alternative fuels in marine vessels have raised questions about the energy use and environmental impacts of such fuels. To address these issues, this paper presents the Total Energy and Emissions Analysis for Marine Systems (TEAMS) model. TEAMS can be used to analyze total fuel life cycle emissions and energy use from marine vessels. TEAMS captures "well-to-hull" emissions, that is, emissions along the entire fuel pathway, including extraction, processing, distribution, and use in vessels. TEAMS conducts analyses for six fuel pathways: (1) petroleum to residual oil, (2) petroleum to conventional diesel, (3) petroleum to low-sulfur diesel, (4) natural gas to compressed natural gas, (5) natural gas to Fischer-Tropsch diesel, and (6) soybeans to biodiesel. TEAMS calculates total fuel-cycle emissions of three greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane) and five criteria pollutants (volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters of 10 microm or less, and sulfur oxides). TEAMS also calculates total energy consumption, fossil fuel consumption, and petroleum consumption associated with each of its six fuel cycles. TEAMS can be used to study emissions from a variety of user-defined vessels. This paper presents TEAMS and provides example modeling results for three case studies using alternative fuels: a passenger ferry, a tanker vessel, and a container ship.

Emissions from passenger ferries operating in urban harbors may contribute significantly to emissions inventories and commuter exposure to air pollution. In particular, ferries are problematic because of high emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) from primarily unregulated diesel engines. This paper explores technical solutions to reduce pollution from passenger ferries operating in the New York-New Jersey Harbor. The paper discusses and demonstrates a mixed-integer, non-linear programming model used to identify optimal control strategies for meeting NOx and PM reduction targets for 45 privately owned commuter ferries in the harbor. Results from the model can be used by policy-makers to craft programs aimed at achieving least-cost reduction targets.

Continued interest in improving air quality in the United States along with renewed interest in the expansion of urban passenger ferry service has created concern about air pollution from ferry vessels. This paper presents a methodology for estimating the air pollution emissions from passenger ferries and the costs of emissions control strategies. The methodology is used to estimate the emissions and costs of retrofitting or re-powering ferries with seven technological options (combinations of propulsion and emission control systems) onto three vessels currently in service in San Francisco Bay. The technologies include improved engine design, cleaner fuels (including natural gas), and exhaust gas cleanup devices. The three vessels span a range of ages and technologies, from a 25-year-old monohull to a modern, high-speed catamaran built only four years ago. By looking at a range of technologies, vessel designs, and service conditions, a sense of the broader implications of controlling emissions from passenger ferries across a range of vessels and service profiles is provided. Tier 2-certified engines are the most cost-effective choice, but all options are cost-effective relative to other emission control strategies already in place in the transportation system.

Mobile sources are among the largest contributors of four hazardous air pollutants--benzene, 1,3-butadiene, acetaldehyde, and formaldehyde--in urban areas. At the same time, federal and state governments are promoting the use of alternative fuel vehicles as a means to curb local air pollution. As yet, the impact of this movement toward alternative fuels with respect to toxic emissions has not been well studied. The purpose of this paper is to compare toxic emissions from vehicles operating on a variety of fuels, including reformulated gasoline (RFG), natural gas, ethanol, methanol, liquid petroleum gas (LPG), and electricity. This study uses a version of Argonne National Laboratory's Greenhouse Gas, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model, appropriately modified to estimate toxic emissions. The GREET model conducts a total fuel-cycle analysis that calculates emissions from both downstream (e.g., operation of the vehicle) and upstream (e.g., fuel production and distribution) stages of the fuel cycle. We find that almost all of the fuels studied reduce 1,3-butadiene emissions compared with conventional gasoline (CG). However, the use of ethanol in E85 (fuel made with 85% ethanol) or RFG leads to increased acetaldehyde emissions, and the use of methanol, ethanol, and compressed natural gas (CNG) may result in increased formaldehyde emissions. When the modeling results for the four air toxics are considered together with their cancer risk factors, all the fuels and vehicle technologies show air toxic emission reduction benefits.

New regulations and incentives are encouraging the use of clean, alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) in urban areas. These vehicles are seen as one option for reducing air pollution from mobile sources. However, because of the limited number of AFVs on the road, little is known about actual lifetime emissions characteristics of in-use AFVs. This study describes the use of a generalized analysis of covariance model to evaluate and compare the emissions from natural gas vehicles with emissions from reformulated gasoline vehicles. The model describes fleet-wide emissions deterioration, while also accounting for individual vehicle variability within the fleet. This ability to measure individual vehicle variability can then be used to provide realistic bounds for the emissions deterioration in individual vehicles and the fleet as a whole. In order to illustrate the use of the model, the carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen (NOx), non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC), and carbon dioxide emissions characteristics of a fleet of dedicated natural gas Dodge Ram vans and a fleet of dedicated reformulated gasoline Dodge Ram vans operating in the U.S. government fleet are explored. The analysis demonstrates the utility of the statistical method and suggests a potential for natural gas Dodge Ram vans to be generally cleaner than their conventional fuel counterparts. However, in the case of NOx and NHMCs, the analysis also suggests that these emissions benefits might be reduced over the vehicle lifetime due to higher emissions deterioration rates for natural gas vehicles. As this paper is aimed at illustrating the analysis of the covariance model, the results reported herein should be considered within the context of a more comprehensive study of these data before general conclusions are possible. Generalization of these findings to other vehicle models and alternative fuel technologies is not justified without further study.

Although there have been several studies examining emissions of criteria pollutants from in-use alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), little is known about emissions of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from these vehicles. This paper explores HAP tailpipe emissions from a variety of AFVs operating in the federal government fleet and compares these emissions to emissions from identical vehicles operating on reformulated gasoline. Emissions estimates are presented for a variety of fuel/model combinations and on four HAPs (acetaldehyde, 1,3-butadi-ene, benzene, and formaldehyde). The results indicate that all AFVs tested offer reduced emissions of HAPs, with the following exceptions: ethanol fueled vehicles emit more acetaldehyde than RFG vehicles, and ethanol- and methanol-fueled vehicles emit more formaldehyde than RFG vehicles. The results from this paper can lead to more accurate emissions factors for HAPs, thus improving HAP inventory and associated risk estimates for both AFVs and conventional vehicles.