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Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs.
- Source :
-
Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2018 Feb 06; Vol. 9 (1), pp. 406. Date of Electronic Publication: 2018 Feb 06. - Publication Year :
- 2018
-
Abstract
- We evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a ~ 2.6% global reduction in PM <subscript>2.5</subscript> cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a ~3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for ~250k deaths and ~6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by ~80%, equating to a ~3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution.
- Subjects :
- Aerosols analysis
Asthma diagnosis
Asthma economics
Asthma etiology
Asthma prevention & control
Cardiovascular Diseases diagnosis
Cardiovascular Diseases economics
Cardiovascular Diseases etiology
Cardiovascular Diseases prevention & control
Climate
Forecasting
Fossil Fuels adverse effects
Fossil Fuels supply & distribution
Humans
Lung Neoplasms diagnosis
Lung Neoplasms economics
Lung Neoplasms etiology
Lung Neoplasms prevention & control
Ships ethics
Air Pollutants analysis
Fossil Fuels analysis
Models, Statistical
Particulate Matter analysis
Public Health trends
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 2041-1723
- Volume :
- 9
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Nature communications
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 29410475
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02774-9