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The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of corruption on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Western Balkans countries, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Albania. Secondary data from The World Bank, Transparency International, and International Monetary Fund databases were utilized to complete this study for 2012-2020. The built model of multiple linear regression included four independent variables, namely: Corruption Perception Index (CPI), Western Balkan Corruption Ranking (WBCR), Exchange Rate (EXG), and Inflation Rate (INFL), as well as FDI as a dependent variable, and data effects were analyzed through the SPPS scientific research software program. The results found that if CPI and WBCR were to increase by one unit, FDI would decrease by 0.088, namely 0.624, while if EXG and INFL were to increase by one unit, FDI would increase by 0.165, namely 0.236. In order to fight corruption and potentially attract more foreign direct investment, the governments of these countries should work to harmonize their anti-corruption laws with those of the European Union. In order to prevent the negative consequences of FDI inflows, they should also maintain a balanced rate of inflation, which entails stabilizing exchange rate fluctuations.

It is a common experience for present-day consumers making an international payment via credit or debit card to be invited to choose the currency in which they wish to have the transaction executed. While this choice, made feasible by a technology known as dynamic currency conversion (DCC), seems to foster competition, we argue that the opposite is the case. In fact, the unique pure-strategy equilibrium in a natural fee-setting game, with uninformed and possibly inattentive consumers, turns out to be highly asymmetric, entailing fees for the service provider that persistently exceed the monopoly level. Although losses in welfare may be substantial, a regulatory solution is unlikely to come about due to a global free-rider problem. This version: January 2023

This dissertation consists of three essays that uncover the origins of market frictions and their implications for the functioning of the global foreign exchange (FX) market. The first research paper speaks to the hegemony of the US dollar in FX trading. Over 85% of all FX transactions involve the US dollar, despite the United States accounting for less than one quarter of global economic activity. I show both theoretically and empirically that the US dollar dominates FX volumes because FX market participants are strategic about their trading costs. Hence, they avoid directly transacting in non-dollar currency pairs if the expected trading cost is too large. Instead, market participants exchange non-dollar pairs indirectly by using the US dollar as a vehicle currency. That is, market participants first exchange a non-dollar currency into US dollars, and then trade those US dollars for their target currency. I derive a set of theoretical conditions for currency dominance in FX trading volume. To validate these conditions empirically, I use a granular and globally representative FX trade data set. My empirical findings are consistent with the predictions of my theoretical framework and corroborate the importance of strategic behaviour as a novel determinant of currency dominance. Using a novel identification strategy, I show that up to 36-40% of the daily volume in the most liquid dollar currency pairs are due to vehicle currency trading. The second paper studies the information content of trades in the FX market. Specifically, we analyse a novel, comprehensive order flow data set, distinguishing among different groups of market participants and covering a large cross-section of currency pairs. We find compelling evidence that global FX order flows convey superior information heterogeneously across agents, time, and currency pairs. These findings are consistent with theories of asymmetric information and over-the-counter market fragmentation. A trading strategy based on exposure to asymmetric information risk generates high returns even after accounting for risk, transaction cost, and other common risk factors shown in the FX literature. Finally, the third paper analyses the cross-sectional asset pricing implications of liquidity risk in the FX market. Precisely because of its sheer size and despite its decentralised nature, the FX market is commonly known as one of the most liquid and resilient trading venues. However, a clear understanding of whether FX liquidity matters for asset prices is still missing. This paper aims to fill this gap by providing the first systematic study of the pricing implications of FX liquidity risk. We show that, even in this market, exposure to liquidity risk commands a non-trivial risk premium of up to 4% percent per annum. In particular, systematic (marketwide) and idiosyncratic liquidity risk are not subsumed by existing FX risk factors and successfully price the cross-section of currency returns. However, we also find that liquidity and carry trade premia are significantly correlated. The carry trade is a simple trading strategy that aims to profit from the interest rate differential between high- and low-yielding currencies. The correlation between liquidity and carry trade premia lends support to a liquidity-based explanation of the infamous carry trade risk premium. To illustrate this point, we decompose carry trade returns and show that the commonality with liquidity risk stems from periods of high market stress and is confined to the static but not the dynamic carry trade.

Identifying exogenous variation in monetary policy is crucial for investigating central bank policy transmission. Using newly-collected archival real-time data utilized by the Central Bank Council of the German Bundesbank, we identify unexpected changes in German monetary policy from 580 policy meetings between 1974 and 1998. German monetary policy shocks produce conventional effects on the German domestic economy: activity, prices, and credit decline significantly following a monetary contraction. But given Germany's central role in the European Monetary System (EMS), we can also shed light on debates about the international transmission of monetary policy and the relative importance of the U.S. Federal Reserve for the global cycle during these years. We find that Bundesbank policy spillovers were much stronger in major EMS economies with Deutschmark pegs than in non-EMS economies with floating exchange rates. Furthermore, compared to monetary spillovers from the U.S., German spillovers were comparable or even larger in magnitude for both pegs and floats.

As part of its rigorous minimum exchange rate policy, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has accumulated a considerable amount of foreign exchange in recent years, reaching a level of over 850 billion Swiss francs at the end of 2020 and thus exceeding the Swiss GDP. As a result of, there have increasingly been demands to use at least part of the foreign exchange reserves in the interest of the Swiss population. A study from 2019 suggests those reserves to be transferred to a special fund, using its annual interest income to finance the old-age and survivors’ insurance (AHV): for some years, there has been an imbalance between those paying and those receiving AHV contribution. Hence, in the long term, the contributions of the insured and the public sector can no longer cover current pension payments. This underpins the urgency of securing the financing of the AHV in the long run. This study aims to answer the question whether the use of the SNB‘s foreign exchange reserves to finance the AHV is to be endorsed. To this end, it examines the potential impact of a transfer of foreign exchange reserves to finance the AHV on the SNB‘s monetary policy mandate, the Swiss economy, and the financial situation of the AHV. Based on a comprehensive literature review, an empirical analysis is conducted using problem-centered interviews with five experts. The analysis shows that the transfer of foreign exchange reserves to a special fund could give rise to various challenges that would complicate the SNB‘s monetary policy mandate. This in turn could have a negative impact on the Swiss economy. Moreover, the financing of the AHV would not be sustainably secured with this proposal. Against this background, a coupling of monetary and social policy to finance the AHV is not recommended. Abstrakt Im Rahmen ihrer rigorosen Mindestkurspolitik häufte die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) in den letzten Jahren einen beträchtlichen Devisenberg an. In der Folge wurden in den letzten Jahren vermehrt Forderungen laut, zumindest einen Teil davon im Interesse des Schweizer Volkes zu verwenden. Eine Studie aus dem Jahr 2019 schlägt vor, die Devisenreserven der SNB in einen Spezialfonds auszulagern und mit dem jährlich anfallenden Zinsertrag zur Finanzierung der Alters- und Hinterlassenenversicherung (AHV) beizutragen. Dies vor dem Hintergrund, dass die Beiträge der Versicherten sowie der öffentlichen Hand die laufenden Rentenzahlungen langfristig nicht mehr decken können. Dieser Artikel untersucht die möglichen Auswirkungen einer Auslagerung der Devisenreserven zur Finanzierung der AHV auf den geldpolitischen Auftrag der SNB, die Schweizer Volkswirtschaft und die finanzielle Situation der AHV. Dazu erfolgt aufbauend auf einer umfassenden Literaturrecherche eine empirische Analyse mithilfe von problemzentrierten Interviews von fünf Expertinnen und Experten. Basierend auf den Erkenntnissen der Studie soll die Frage beantwortet werden, ob die Verwendung der Devisenreserven der SNB für die Finanzierung der AHV zu befürworten ist. Die Studie zeigt, dass durch die Auslagerung der Devisenreserven in einen Spezialfonds diverse Problemfelder entstehen können, welche den geldpolitischen Auftrag der SNB erschweren. Dies wiederum könnte sich negativ auf die Schweizer Volkswirtschaft auswirken. Auch wäre die Finanzierung der AHV mit diesem Vorschlag nicht nachhaltig gesichert. Eine Koppelung von Geld- und Sozialpolitik zu Finanzierung der AHV ist vor diesem Hintergrund nicht zu befürworten. Résumé Dans le cadre de sa politique rigoureuse de taux de change minimum, la Banque nationale suisse (BNS) a accumulé ces dernières années un montant considérable de devises étrangères, qui a atteint un niveau de plus de 850 milliards de francs suisses à la fin de 2020 et dépasse donc le PIB suisse. C’est pourquoi, ces dernières années, les appels se sont multipliés pour qu’ au moins une partie de ces importantes réserves soit utilisée dans l’intérêt de la population suisse. Une étude de 2019 propose de transférer les réserves de devises de la BNS dans un fonds spécial et d’utiliser le produit annuel des intérêts de ce fonds pour contribuer au financement de l’assurance vieillesse et survivants (AVS) sur fond du fait que, depuis quelques années, l’AVS présente un déséquilibre entre les cotisants et les bénéficiaires. En effet, les cotisations des assurés et du trésor public ne permettent plus de couvrir à long terme les paiements actuels des rentes. Cela souligne l’urgence d’assurer le financement de l’AVS à long terme. Cet article examine l‘impact potentiel du transfert des réserves de devises pour financer l‘AVS sur le mandat de politique monétaire de la BNS, l‘économie suisse et la situation financière de l‘AVS. Sur la base d‘un examen complet de la littérature, une analyse empirique est réalisée à l‘aide d‘entretiens focalisés avec cinq experts. Appuyant sur les résultats de l‘analyse, il convient de répondre à la question si l‘utilisation des réserves de devises de la BNS pour financer l‘AVS est à préconiser. L‘analyse montre que le transfert des réserves de devises vers un fonds spécial pourrait donner lieu à divers problèmes qui compliqueraient le mandat de politique monétaire de la BNS. Cela pourrait avoir un impact négatif sur l‘économie suisse. En outre, le financement de l‘AVS ne serait pas durablement assuré avec cette proposition. Par conséquent, un couplage de la politique monétaire et de la politique sociale pour financer l‘AVS n‘est pas à préconiser. Schlüsselwörter: Devisenreserven; AHV; SNB; Wechselkurs; Preisstabilität; Geldpolitik; Sozialpolitik Mots clés: réserves monétaires; AVS; BNS; Wechselkurs; stabilité des prix; politique monétaire; Politique sociale

In dieser Dissertation werden zun��chst die Spillover-Effekte zwischen dem Goldpreis an den drei wichtigsten Goldb��rsen untersucht. Anschlie��end werden die dynamischen Auswirkungen und die Anwendung der Absicherung des Goldpreises mit den wichtigsten Wechselkursen und den Aktienmarktindizes unter Verwendung der f��hrenden Finanzzeitreihenans��tze sowie der neuesten Daten n��her betrachtet., This thesis studies firstly the spillover between the gold price among the major three gold exchanges nowadays and then takes a deeper look into the dynamic impact, hedging application of the gold with major exchange rates and the the stock market indices, using the leading financial time series approaches as well as the latest data.

One of the most important variables in the study of the North Korean economy is market prices and foreign exchange rates. This is because of the assumption that the two variables immediately reflect the status and trends of the North Korean economy. In fact, many North Korean economic studies use observations on these variables as important analysis data. Despite such reality, however, market price and the foreign exchange rate are among the trickiest of all macroeconomic variables related to the economy. Researchers have yet to agree as to how the variables should be measured, what kind of methods should be used to analyze the measures, and how the outcomes should be interpreted. In an attempt to find an answer to these questions, we invited Dr. Ji Young Choi, Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU). Dr. Choi has long studied prices and foreign exchange rates in North Korea. She is recognized as one of the most prominent experts in the area not only in Korea but also abroad.

African countries have over the years experienced persistent current account deficits. The role of asymmetries in explaining the response of trade balance to exchange rate movement has not received adequate attention as linear models dominate extant empirical literature. In this paper, we examined the impact of exchange rate on the trade balance in five African countries using both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models to analyze data for the period 1980-2018. The linear model revealed that the J-curve holds in Uganda in the short run, whereas evidence of long-run J-curve effect was found only in Algeria. However, the nonlinear analysis showed that the short-run J-curve holds for South Africa and Uganda whereas a long-run J-curve effect was found in Algeria and Uganda. The results make a case for modeling asymmetries as the nonlinear model performed relatively better. An important policy implication is the need to address structural imbalances in the economy to leverage on the exchange rate and trade policies to improve trade outcomes.

This paper provides an econometric analysis of the short-run impact of interest rates on the Swiss franc exchange rate covering the period January 2001 to June 2011 using daily data. Our model includes both the exchange rate of the Swiss franc against euro and dollar and uses the plausible assumption that foreign interest rates and the euro-dollar exchange rate are exogenous. In addition, we consider not only money market interest differentials, but also those for 2 and 10 year governments bonds. GMM estimation indicates that a one-percentage point increase in the 3-month Swiss franc Libor rate leads to a 3.7 % appreciation of the Swiss franc against euro and dollar. This result seems to be robust with respect to considering only increasing or decreasing interest rates and omitting data around SNB target band adjustments. Our findings appear reasonable and are between the extremely low and high estimates of the impact of Swiss interest rate changes on the exchange rate reported in the literature.

The Danish krone was under weakening pressure in March 2020, following the outbreak of covid-19. Contrary to earlier episodes of pressure, the pressure in March 2020 was not driven by speculation about the sustainability of the Danish fixed exchange rate policy or the euro. The pressure in March was driven by the domestic insurance and pension sector and the investment fund investors, who sold kroner in response to losses on their foreign exchange assets.

Structured Eurobonds are a prominent topic in the discussions how to complete the monetary and fiscal union. This work sheds light on several issues going hand in hand with the introduction of common bonds. At first a crucial question is on the optimal construction, e.g. what is the optimal common liability. Other questions that arise belong to the time after the introduction. The impact on several exchnage rates is examined in this work. Finally an approximation bias in forward-looking DSGE models is quantified which would lead to an adjustment of central bank interest rates and therefore has an impact on the other two topics., Strukturierte Eurobonds sind ein wichtiges Thema in den Diskussionen über die Vollendung der Währungs- und Fiskalunion. Diese Arbeit beleuchtet mehrere Fragen, die mit der Einführung gemeinsamer Anleihen Hand in Hand gehen. Eine entscheidende Frage ist zunächst die nach der optimalen Konstruktion, z.B. was die optimale gemeinsame Haftung ist. Andere Fragen, die sich stellen, gehören in die Zeit nach der Einführung. Die Auswirkungen auf verschiedene Wechselkurse werden in dieser Arbeit untersucht. Schließlich wird ein Approximationsfehler in zukunftsgerichteten DSGE-Modellen quantifiziert, der zu einer Anpassung der Zentralbankzinsen führen würde und sich daher auf die beiden anderen Themen auswirkt.

Economists argue that the money supply positively impact on economic growth of nations. In Sri Lankan context this statement was not tested econometrically. Therefore, the aim of this study was to scrutinize the impact of money supply on Sri Lankan economy. To exam this objective, this study considered the time series data from the period of 1959 to 2013 and used two types of variables such as dependent and independent variables. Here, the gross domestic product was considered as dependent variable, and Money supply, Exchange rate, Exports earnings, Imports outflow, the Colombo consumer price index were deemed as independent variables. In the meantime, the multivariate econometric method was used to test the impacts of money supply on economic growth of Sri Lanka. According to the analytical results, the money supply has kept positive impact on the economic growth of Sri Lanka at 1% significant level. The R-squared of the estimated model was 92% which was indicated that the estimated model was desirable. Meanwhile, the Durbin Watson test statistic was 2.43 and also the Breusch –Godfrey serial correlation LM test results was greater than 5%. Therefore, these statistics indicated that, the estimated model was not suffering from serial correlation.

This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast exchange market pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes a global risk response index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of global risk aversion. For a large sample of countries over time, we demonstrate time variation in the effects of global risk on exchange market pressures, the evolving importance of the global factor across types of countries, and the changing risk-on or risk-off status of currencies.

The present study attempts measure the transmission of monetary impulse from the USA to India by trying to quantify the extent of volatility spillover from the US monetary policy to the exchange rate and interest rate of India. By applying a t-DCC MGARCH model to daily data on Fed Funds Rate, Rupee Dollar Exchange Rate and the Call Money rate of India it was found that there is considerable volatility spillover from the Fed Rate to the exchange rate. Spillover is also clearly evident in case of the call rate. The extent of spillover is higher for the foreign exchange rate than the call money rate. However, it was also noticed that the spillover is asymmetric in either of the cases and is higher during phases of high volatility. In an era of flexible exchange rates excessive dependence of the Indian Economy on short term capital flows to finance the current account deficits which raises the dollar demand and exposes the Indian economy to the Monetary Policy of the US, needs to be reduced. Reforms in the nature of capital flows is also the need of the hour.

Inflation is one of the important macroeconomic variables that has a close relationship with many of the real and monetary variables and has unfavorable effects such as loss of productivity, reduction of economic growth, and rise of economic inequality. Therefore, the reduction of inflation has always been the most important economic objective of policy makers. The main objective of this study is to examine the relationship between, inflation, money supply and government spending in Iran during the period 1959-2010. To that end, Bayesian econometric approach was used. The results of the Bayesian Model averaging method imply that the growth rate of money, economic growth rate, inflation rate, the logarithm of the ratio of liquidity to GDP, and growth in energy prices had a significant positive significant effect on inflation. Among these 3 variables, growth rate of money has the highest impact on inflation. The results showed that the growth rate of government spending, GDP growth rate and the exchange rate had no significant effect on the inflation. Therefore, the study recommends controlling the inflation through decline in liquidity growth rate, and energy prices.

Kann der Euro auf Dauer nur überleben, wenn in einer Übergangsphase flexible Kurse zwischen den Euroländern eingeführt werden? Helmuth Jordan, Jordan & Wagner Rechtsanwaltsgesellschaft mbH, sieht in dieser Maßnahme eine Alternative zum Austritt Griechenlands aus den Euro. Die Rückkehr zu einer früheren Währung könnte den kaum erwünschten Eindruck erwecken, das Rad der Geschichte werde zurückgedreht. Dies würde psychologisch die Position von Griechenland kaum verbessern. Wenn der griechische Euro innerhalb einer detaillierten Rahmenvereinbarung abgewertet werden würde, könnte das die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Griechenlands stärken. Die Abwertung sei ein altbekanntes und altbewährtes Instrument einer als wirtschaftlich notwendig gesehenen Anpassung. Selbst wenn noch weitere Staaten in der Eurozone einen ähnlichen Abwertungsantrag stellen sollten, wären die Konsequenzen voraussichtlich weniger gravierend als eine Rückkehr dieser Länder zu ihrer alten Währung. Flexible Kurse in einer Übergangsphase könnten den Euro unterstützen, solange er sich auf schwankendem Boden bewege. Immer dann, wenn strukturelle Reformen im Euroland nicht vorankommen, könnte der Wechselkurs zum Ventil werden. Eine flexible Anpassung des Euro könnte somit ein Weg sein, das Überleben des Euro zu erleichtern. Nach Ansicht von Thomas Mayer, Flossbach von Storch Research Institute, Köln, müsste der Euro, damit sein Scheitern verhindert werden könnte, als Gemeinschaftswährung statt wie bisher als Einheitswährung neu aufgestellt werden. Dies könnte dadurch geschehen, dass der Euro durch nationale und regionale öffentlich und privat emittierte Parallelwährungen ergänzt werde. Durch den Währungswettbewerb würde nicht nur die Qualität der Währungen insgesamt verbessert, sondern es könnte sich auch eine nach dem jeweiligen Bedarf von Ländern und Regionen differenzierte Nutzung von Währungen mit dem Euro in der Mitte herausbilden.

Am 15. Januar 2015 entschied die Schweizerische Notenbank, den Mindestkurs des Franken zum Euro aufzugeben. Binnen kurzer Zeit wertete der Franken um bis zu 20% auf. Das niedrige Zinsniveau in der Schweiz hatte zuvor Schuldner in die Schweiz gelockt. Viele vermeintliche Gewinner von Zinsvorteilen aus Fremdwährungskrediten wurden durch die Aufwertung des Schweizer Franken zu Verlierern. Zum Kreis der Schuldner zählen nicht nur Privatpersonen, sondern auch deutsche Bundesländer und Gemeinden. Der Beitrag beschreibt die Verschuldungsstruktur und die Fremdwährungsschulden der Bundesländer und Gemeinden.

US-Präsident Donald Trump und seine Berater wollen der USA mithilfe protektionistischer Maßnahmen im weltwirtschaftlichen Wettbewerb zu neuer Stärke verhelfen - auf Kosten anderer, insbesondere exportstarker Länder wie Deutschland und China. Neben einer protektionistischeren Handels- und Steuerpolitik könnte die Trump-Regierung auch zur Wechselkurspolitik greifen. Da ein Abwertungswettlauf für alle Seiten schädlich wäre, sollte die G20 sich mit der Gefahr währungspolitischer Verwerfungen befassen. Um politisch wie wirtschaftlich gefährliche makroökonomische Ungleichgewichte abzubauen und einen möglichen Einbruch der Exporte abzufedern, wären Investitionen in inländische Infrastruktur für Deutschland nützlich. Zudem würde weniger Fremdfinanzierung der amerikanischen Staatsverschuldung - durch Länder wie China und Deutschland - die USA nötigen, besser zu haushalten.

In a small open economy fluctuations in the real exchange rate can affect plant turnover, and thus aggregate productivity, by altering the makeup of plants that populate the market. An appreciation of the local currency increases the level of competition in the domestic market as import competition intensifies and export opportunities shrink, forcing less productive plants from the market and compelling new entrants to be more competitive than they otherwise would have been. Depreciations have the opposite effect, as import competition weakens and new export opportunities arise, less competitive plants are able to continue to operate in the market and crowd out new, more productive entrants. This paper develops a dynamic structural model that captures the effect of plantlevel productivity and real exchange rate fluctuations on plant entry and exit decisions in the Canadian agricultural implements industry, and how this, in turn, affects aggregate productivity. The model's dynamic parameters are estimated in two stages. Variable profit parameters and the per-period fixed cost of operation are estimated first using the Nested Pseudo Likelihood (NPL) algorithm, and then the parameters characterizing the distribution of unobserved potential entrant productivity, along with the cost of entry, are estimated in a second stage using the Method of Simulated Moments (MSM). Finally, simulations of the model are used to investigate the effects of shocks to the exchange rate process on aggregate industry productivity., Dans une petite économie ouverte, les variations du taux de change réel peuvent influer sur la rotation des usines, et donc sur la productivité globale, par les modifications qu’elles entraînent dans la configuration du marché. Lorsque la monnaie du pays s’apprécie, le niveau de concurrence augmente sur le marché intérieur du fait que la concurrence des importations s’intensifie et que les possibilités d’exportation s’amenuisent, chassant ainsi les usines moins productives du marché et obligeant les nouvelles venues à se montrer plus compétitives qu’elles ne l’auraient fait autrement. À l’inverse, les dépréciations rendent les importations moins concurrentielles et ouvrent de nouveaux débouchés à l’étranger, ce qui permet aux usines moins compétitives de rester sur le marché et de tenir à l’écart de nouvelles concurrentes, plus productives. L’auteur élabore un modèle structurel dynamique qui reproduit l’incidence de la productivité individuelle des usines et des variations du taux de change réel sur les décisions des usines d’entrer dans le secteur canadien du matériel agricole ou d’en sortir, et les répercussions de ces décisions sur la productivité globale. L’estimation des paramètres dynamiques du modèle se fait en deux temps. L’auteur procède tout d’abord à l’estimation des paramètres des bénéfices variables et des charges d’exploitation fixes par période au moyen de l’algorithme imbriqué mis au point par Aguirregabiria et Mira (2002) pour maximiser la pseudo-vraisemblance. Il estime ensuite les paramètres caractérisant la distribution de la productivité non observée des entrants éventuels, de même que les coûts d’entrée, par la méthode des moments simulés. Enfin, par des simulations du modèle, il étudie les effets des chocs touchant le processus de détermination des taux de change sur la productivité sectorielle globale.

We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time-varying inflation target, a time-varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. The estimates closely track major movements along with important time series properties of real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered. The model generally outperforms a benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment. (authors' abstract), Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

How strong are strategic complementarities in price setting across firms? In this paper, we provide a direct empirical estimate of firms' price responses to changes in prices of their competitors. We develop a general framework and an empirical identification strategy to estimate the elasticities of a firm's price response both to its own cost shocks and to the price changes of its competitors. Our approach takes advantage of a new micro-level data set for the Belgian manufacturing sector, which contains detailed information on firm domestic prices, marginal costs, and competitor prices. The rare features of these data enable us to construct instrumental variables to address the simultaneity of price setting by competing firms. We find strong evidence of strategic complementarities, with a typical firm adjusting its price with an elasticity of 35 percent in response to the price changes of its competitors and with an elasticity of 65 percent in response to its own cost shocks. Furthermore, we find substantial heterogeneity in these elasticities across firms, with small firms showing no strategic complementarities and a complete cost pass-through, and large firms responding to their cost shocks and competitor price changes with roughly equal elasticities of around 50 percent. We show, using a tightly calibrated quantitative model, that these findings have important implications for shaping the response of domestic prices to international shocks.

This paper develops an economic framework to analyze the exchange rate of virtual currency. Three components are important: first, the current use of virtual currency to make payments; second, the decision of forward-looking investors to buy virtual currency (thereby effectively regulating its supply); and third, the elements that jointly drive future consumer adoption and merchant acceptance of virtual currency. The model predicts that, as virtual currency becomes more established, the exchange rate will become less sensitive to the impact of shocks to speculators’ beliefs. This undermines the notion that excessive exchange rate volatility will prohibit widespread use of virtual currency., Nous construisons un modèle d’analyse pour cerner les facteurs qui influent sur le taux de change des monnaies virtuelles. Trois éléments importent : tout d’abord, l’utilisation actuelle d’une monnaie virtuelle comme moyen de paiement; ensuite, la décision d’investisseurs prospectifs d’acheter de la monnaie virtuelle (et de contrôler ainsi l’offre de ce type de monnaie); enfin, les facteurs qui détermineront ensemble l’adoption d’une monnaie virtuelle par les consommateurs et son acceptation par les commerçants. Selon les prévisions du modèle, lorsqu’une monnaie virtuelle devient plus établie, son taux de change devient moins sensible aux répercussions des changements non anticipés de croyance des spéculateurs. Ce résultat va à l’encontre de l’idée voulant que la très forte volatilité de leur taux de change empêchera la large diffusion des monnaies virtuelles.

Angesichts der massiven Aufwertung des Schweizerfrankens im letzten Jahr stellt sich die Frage nach den Konsequenzen für die Entwicklung der Exporte. Bei der Untersuchung dieser Problematik berücksichtigen wir, dass sich Wechselkursschwankungen je nach Branche unterschiedlich auswirken können. Entsprechend führen wir nach Absatzländern und Warenarten differenzierte ökonometrische Schätzungen durch. In der Tat stellen wir eine starke Heterogenität der Wechselkurselastizität fest. Es zeigt sich zudem, dass der Wechselkurseffekt insgesamt nicht so stark ist, wie vielfach vermutet wird. Dies ist wohl darauf zurückzuführen dass in manchen Branchen der nichtpreisliche Wettbewerb im Vordergrund steht. Auf der anderen Seite zeigt die Analyse, dass die Entwicklung der Exporte in hohem Mass von der Auslandsnachfrage beeinflusst wird. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser Resultate überrascht es nicht, dass sich die schweizerischen Exporte trotz der sehr starken und schnellen Aufwertung bis zuletzt günstig entwickelt haben.

This paper examines the linkages between real exchange rate movements and firms’ skill demand. Real exchange rate movements may affect unskilled workers differently than skilled workers because of skill-specific adjustment costs, or because exchange rates lead to changes in relative factor prices and firms’ competition intensity. Using panel data on Swiss manufacturers, we find that an appreciation increases high-skilled and reduces low-skilled employment in most firms, while total employment remains roughly unchanged. We find evidence that exchange rates influence firms’ skill intensity because they affect outsourcing activities, innovation efforts, and firms’ compensation schemes., KOF Working Papers, 385

The paper addresses the question on what is the typical time horizon over which a full transmission of movements in the real exchange rate into real economy takes place. To this end, we base our analysis on the mixed-frequency small-scale dynamic factor model of Siliverstovs (2012) fitted to the Swiss data. In this paper, we augment the benchmark model with the real exchange rate of the Swiss franc vis-a-vis currencies of its 24 trading partners, while keeping the rest of model specification intact. We are interested in investigating the relationship between the common latent factor, representing the Swiss business cycle, and the real exchange rate. We explore the temporal relationship between these two variables by varying the time lag with which the real exchange rate enters the factor model by recording magnitude and statistical signi cance of the factor loading coefficient in the equation pertaining to the real exchange rate variable. Our main conclusion is that the fluctuations in the exchange rate start influencing real economy after one month and their eff ect is practically over after thirteen months. The largest eff ect is recorded at the time horizon of about six to nine months., KOF Working Papers, 373

Should central banks intervene in currency markets? In theory, within a flexible system, central banks should leave the process of determining appropriate exchange rates to the currency markets. In practice, however, central banks have frequently intervened to “manage” the exchange rates according to their goals and priorities. This article discusses whether central banks can effectively intervene in currency markets and describes some lessons other countries could learn from the Swiss experience.

Seit Mitte des Jahres 2014 wertete der Euro sowohl nominal als auch real effektiv ab. Eine Untersuchung der Elastizitäten der Waren- und der Gesamtexporte auf Änderungen in verschiedenen Wechselkursreihen zeigt, dass die Elastizität bezüglich der Wechselkurse zwischen – 0,2 und – 0,6 liegt. In Folge der Abwertung im ersten Quartal wird die deutsche Ausfuhr in diesem Jahr einen Impuls von 0,8 bis 1,0 Prozentpunkten und im kommenden Jahr von 0,5 bis 0,6 Prozentpunkten erhalten.