130 results on '"Vollset, S.E."'
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2. Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
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Murray, C.J.L., Abbafati, C., Abbas, K.M., Abbasi, M., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdollahi, M., Abedi, P., Abedi, A., Abolhassani, H., Aboyans, V., Abreu, L.G., Abrigo, M.R.M., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Abu Haimed, A.K., Abushouk, A.I., Acebedo, A., Ackerman, I.N., Adabi, M., Adamu, A.A., Adebayo, O.M., Adelson, J.D., Adetokunboh, O.O., Afarideh, M., Afshin, A., Agarwal, G., Agrawal, A., Ahmad, T., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadi, M., Ahmed, M.B., Aji, B., Akinyemiju, T., Akombi, B., Alahdab, F., Alam, K., Alanezi, F.M., Alanzi, T.M., Albertson, S.B., Alemu, B.W., Alemu, Y.M., Alhabib, K.F., Ali, M., Ali, S., Alicandro, G., Alipour, V., Alizade, H., Aljunid, S.M., Alla, F., Allebeck, P., Almadi, M.A.H., Almasi-Hashiani, A., Al-Mekhlafi, H.M., Almulhim, A.M., Alonso, J., Al-Raddadi, R.M., Altirkawi, K.A., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amare, B., Amare, A.T, Amini, S., Amit, A.M.L., Amugsi, D.A., Anbesu, E.W., Ancuceanu, R., Anderlini, D., Anderson, J.A., Andrei, T., Andrei, C.L., Anjomshoa, M., Ansari, F., Ansari-Moghaddam, A., Antonio, C.A.T., Antony, C.M., Anvari, D., Appiah, S.C.Y., Arabloo, J., Arab-Zozani, M., Aravkin, A.Y., Arba, A.A.K., Aripov, T., Ärnlöv, J., Arowosegbe, O.O., Asaad, M., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Asadi-Pooya, A.A., Ashbaugh, C., Assmus, M., Atout, M.M.W., Ausloos, M., Ausloos, F., Ayala Quintanilla, B.P., Ayano, G., Ayanore, M.A., Azari, S., Azene, Z.N., Babaee, E., Badawi, A., Badiye, A.D., Bagherzadeh, M., Bairwa, M., Bakhtiari, A., Bakkannavar, S.M., Balachandran, A., Banach, M., Banerjee, S.K., Banik, P.C., Baraki, A.G., Barker-Collo, S.L., Basaleem, H., Basu, S., Baune, B.T., Bayati, M., Baye, B.A., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Bell, M.L., Bensenor, I.M., Berhe, K., Berman, A.E., Bhagavathula, A.S., Bhala, N., Bhardwaj, P., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z.A., Bijani, A., Bikbov, B., Biondi, A., Bisignano, C., Biswas, R.K., Bjørge, T., Bohlouli, S., Bohluli, M., Bolla, S.R.R., Boloor, A., Bose, D., Boufous, S., Brady, O.J., Braithwaite, D., Brauer, M., Breitborde, N.J.K, Brenner, H., Breusov, A.V., Briant, P.S., Briggs, A.M., Britton, G.B., Brugha, T., Burugina Nagaraja, S., Busse, R., Butt, Z.A., Caetano dos Santos, F.L., Cámera, L.L.A., Campos-Nonato, I.R., Campuzano Rincon, J.C., Car, J., Cárdenas, R., Carreras, G., Carrero, J. J., Carvalho, F., Castaldelli-Maia, J.M., Castelpietra, G., Castro, F., Catalá-López, F., Causey, K., Cederroth, C.R., Cercy, K.M., Cerin, E., Chandan, J.S., Chang, J-C, Charan, J., Charlson, F. J., Chattu, V.K., Chaturvedi, S., Cherbuin, N., Chin, K.L., Chirinos-Caceres, J.L., Cho, D.Y., Choi, J-Y.J., Chu, D-T, Chung, S-C, Chung, M.T., Cicuttini, F.M., Cirillo, M., Cislaghi, B., Cohen, A.J., Compton, K., Corso, B., Cortesi, P.A., Costa, V.M., Cousin, E., Cowden, R.G., Cross, M., Crowe, C.S., Cummins, S., Dai, H., Damiani, G., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daneshpajouhnejad, P., Darwesh, A.M., Das, J.K., Das Gupta, R., das Neves, J., Davey, G., Dávila-Cervantes, C.A., Davis, A.C., De Leo, D., Denova-Gutiérrez, E., Deribe, K., Dervenis, N., Desai, R., Deuba, K., Dhungana, G.P., Dianatinasab, M., Diaz, D., Dichgans, M., Didarloo, A., Dippenaar, I.N., Dokova, K., Dolecek, C., Dorostkar, F., Doshi, P.P., Doshi, C.P., Doshmangir, L., Doxey, M.C., Driscoll, T.R., Duncan, B.B., Eagan, A.W., Ebrahimi, H., Ebrahimi Kalan, M., Edvardsson, D., Ehrlich, J.R., Elbarazi, I., Elgendy, I.Y., El-Jaafary, S.I., El Sayed Zaki, M., Elsharkawy, A., El Tantawi, M., Elyazar, I.R.F., Emamian, M.H., Eshrati, B., Eskandarieh, S., Esteghamati, A., Esteghamati, S., Fanzo, J., Faro, A., Farzadfar, F., Fattahi, N., Feigin, V.L, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E., Ferrara, P., Ferrari, A.J., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Fisher, J.L., Fitzgerald, R., Foigt, N.A., Folayan, M.O., Fomenkov, A.A., Foroutan, M., Franklin, R.C., Freitas, M., Fukumoto, T., Furtado, J.M., Gad, M.M., Gaidhane, A.M., Gakidou, E., Gallus, S., Gardner, W.M., Geberemariyam, B.S., Gebremedhin, K.B., Gebremeskel, L.G., Gebresillassie, B.M., Geramo, Y.C.D., Gesesew, H.A., Gething, P.W., Gezae, K.E., Ghadiri, K., Ghaffarifar, F., Ghafourifard, M., Ghamari, F., Ghashghaee, A., Gholamian, A., Giampaoli, S., Gill, P.S., Gillum, R.F., Ginawi, I.A., Giussani, G., Gnedovskaya, E.V., Godinho, M.A., Golechha, M., Gona, P.N., Gopalani, S.V., Gorini, G., Goulart, B.N.G., Goulart, A.C., Grada, A., Greaves, F., Gudi, N., Guimarães, R.A., Guo, Y., Gupta, S.S., Gupta, R., Haagsma, J.A., Hachinski, V., Hafezi-Nejad, N., Haile, L.M., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hall, B. J., Hamadeh, R.R., Hamidi, S., Han, C., Hankey, G.J., Haro, J.M., Hasaballah, A.I., Hashi, A., Hassan, A., Hassanipour, S., Hassankhani, H., Havmoeller, R. J., Hay, S.I., Hayat, K., Henok, A., Henry, N.J., Herteliu, C., Heydarpour, F., Ho, H.C., Hole, M.K., Holla, R., Hoogar, P., Hopf, K.P., Hosgood, H.D., Hossain, N., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, M., Hostiuc, S., Househ, M., Hoy, D.G., Hu, G., Huda, T.M., Hugo, F.N., Humayun, A., Hussain, R., Hwang, B-F, Iavicoli, I., Ibeneme, C.U., Ibitoye, S.E., Ikuta, K.S., Ilesanmi, O.S., Ilic, I.M., Ilic, M.D., Inbaraj, L.R., Iqbal, U., Irvani, S.S.N., Islam, M.M., Islam, S.M.S., Iso, H., Iwu, C.C.D., Jaafari, J., Jahagirdar, D., Jahani, M.A., Jakovljevic, M., Jalali, A., Jalilian, F., Janodia, M.D., Javaheri, T., Jenabi, E., Jha, R.P., Jha, V., Ji, J.S., Johnson, C.O., Jonas, J.B., Jürisson, M., Kabir, A., Kabir, Z., Kalani, R., Kalankesh, L.R., Kalhor, R., Kanchan, T., Kapoor, N., Karami Matin, B., Karch, A., Karim, M.A., Karimi, S.E., Kasa, A.S., Kassebaum, N. J., Kayode, G.A., Kazemi Karyani, A., Keiyoro, P., Khalid, N., Khammarnia, M., Khan, M., Khan, E.A., Khan, G., Khatab, K., Khater, M.M., Khatib, M.N., Khazaie, H., Khoja, A.T., Khubchandani, J., Kianipour, N., Kieling, C., Kim, Y-E, Kim, Y.J., Kimokoti, R.W., Kinfu, Y., Kisa, S., Kisa, A., Kissoon, N., Kivimäki, M., Kneib, C.J., Knight, M., Koh, D.S.Q., Komaki, H., Kopec, J.A., Kosen, S., Kotlo, A., Koul, P.A., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Krohn, K.J., KS, S., Kumar, G.A., Kumar, N., Kumar, M., Kurmi, O.P., Kusuma, D., Kyu, H.H., Lacey, B., Lal, D.K., Lalloo, R., Lallukka, T., Lan, Q., Landires, I., Larson, H.J., Lasrado, S., Lau, K.M-M, Lauriola, P., La Vecchia, C., Leal, L.F., Leasher, J.L., Ledesma, J.R., Lee, P.H., Lee, S.W.H., Leonardi, M., Leung, J., Li, B., Li, S., Lim, L-L, Lin, R-T, Listl, S., Liu, X., Liu, Y., Logroscino, G., Lopez, J.C.F., Lorkowski, S., Lozano, R., Lu, A., Lugo, A., Lunevicius, R., Lyons, R.A., Ma, J., Machado, D.B., Maddison, E.R., Mahasha, P.W., Mahmoudi, M., Majeed, A., Maled, V., Maleki, S., Maleki, A., Malekzadeh, R., Malta, D.C., Mamun, A.A., Manguerra, H., Mansouri, B., Mansournia, M.A., Mantilla Herrera, A.M., Martini, S., Martins-Melo, F.R., Martopullo, I., Masoumi, S.Z., Massenburg, B.B., Mathur, M.R., Maulik, P.K., Mazidi, M., McAlinden, C., McGrath, J.J., McKee, M., Mehndiratta, M.M., Mehri, F., Mehta, K.M., Melese, A., Memish, Z.A., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R.G., Mengesha, E.W., Meretoja, T.J., Meretoja, A., Mestrovic, T., Miazgowski, B., Michalek, I.M., Milne, G.J., Miri, M., Mirica, A., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Mirzaei, H., Mirzaei, M., Mirzaei-Alavijeh, M., Misganaw, A.T., Moazen, B., Moghadaszadeh, M., Mohajer, B., Mohamad, O., Mohammad, Y., Mohammad, D.K., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N., Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A., Mohammed, S., Mohebi, F., Mokdad, A.H., Molokhia, M., Monasta, L., Mooney, M.D., Moradi, M., Moradi, G., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moradzadeh, R., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Morgado-da-Costa, J., Morrison, S.D., Mosapour, A., 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Perico, N., Pescarini, J.M., Pham, H.Q., Phillips, M.R., Piccinelli, C., Pilz, T.M., Pinheiro, M., Piradov, M.A., Pirsaheb, M., Pishgar, F., Pond, C.D., Postma, M.J., Pottoo, F.H., Pourjafar, H., Pourmalek, F., Prada, S.I., Prasad, N., Pribadi, D.R.A., Pupillo, E., Quazi Syed, Z., Rabiee, N., Rabiee, M., Radfar, A., Rafiee, A., Raggi, A., Rahman, M.H.U., Rahman, M.A., Ramezanzadeh, K., Ranabhat, C.L., Ranta, A., Rao, S.J., Rao, P.C., Rasella, D., Rashedi, V., Rastogi, P., Rawaf, S., Rawaf, D.L., Rawal, L., Rawassizadeh, R., Rawat, R., Razo, C., Regassa, L.D., Reitsma, M.B., Remuzzi, G., Renjith, V., Renzaho, A.M.N., Resnikoff, S., Rezaei, N., Rezai, M.S., Rezapour, A., Rhinehart, P-A, Riahi, S.M., Ribeiro, A.L.P., Ribeiro, D.C., Rickard, J., Roever, L., Romoli, M., Ronfani, L., Roshandel, G., Rubagotti, E., Rumisha, S.F., Rwegerera, G.M., Saadatagah, S., Sabour, S., Sachdev, P.S., Saddik, B., Sadeghi, M., Sadeghi, E., Saeedi Moghaddam, S., Sahebkar, A., Sahraian, M.A., Sajadi, S.M., 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Wickramasinghe, N.D., Wilner, L.B., Wojtyniak, B., Wolfe, C.D.A., Wondmeneh, T.G., Wu, A-M, Wu, C., Wulf Hanson, S., Wunrow, H.Y., Xie, Y., Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H., Yamagishi, K., Yaya, S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Yearwood, J.A., Yeheyis, T.Y., Yeshitila, Y.Gi., Yip, P., Yonemoto, N., Yoon, S-J, Younis, M.Z., Younker, T.P., Yousefinezhadi, T., Yu, C., Yu, Y., Yuce, D., Yusefzadeh, H., Zaidi, S.S., Zaman, S.B., Zamanian, M., Zangeneh, A., Zarafshan, H., Zastrozhin, M.S., Zewdie, K.A., Zhang, Z-J, Zhang, J., Zhang, Y., Zhao, X-J.G., Zhao, Y., Zheleva, B., Zheng, P., Zhu, C., Ziapour, A., Zimsen, S.R.M., Lopez, A.D., Vos, T., Lim, S.S., Murray, C.J.L., Abbafati, C., Abbas, K.M., Abbasi, M., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdollahi, M., Abedi, P., Abedi, A., Abolhassani, H., Aboyans, V., Abreu, L.G., Abrigo, M.R.M., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Abu Haimed, A.K., Abushouk, A.I., Acebedo, A., Ackerman, I.N., Adabi, M., Adamu, A.A., Adebayo, O.M., Adelson, J.D., Adetokunboh, O.O., Afarideh, M., Afshin, A., Agarwal, G., Agrawal, A., Ahmad, T., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadi, M., Ahmed, M.B., Aji, B., Akinyemiju, T., Akombi, B., Alahdab, F., Alam, K., Alanezi, F.M., Alanzi, T.M., Albertson, S.B., Alemu, B.W., Alemu, Y.M., Alhabib, K.F., Ali, M., Ali, S., Alicandro, G., Alipour, V., Alizade, H., Aljunid, S.M., Alla, F., Allebeck, P., Almadi, M.A.H., Almasi-Hashiani, A., Al-Mekhlafi, H.M., Almulhim, A.M., Alonso, J., Al-Raddadi, R.M., Altirkawi, K.A., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amare, B., Amare, A.T, Amini, S., Amit, A.M.L., Amugsi, D.A., Anbesu, E.W., Ancuceanu, R., Anderlini, D., Anderson, J.A., Andrei, T., Andrei, C.L., Anjomshoa, M., Ansari, F., Ansari-Moghaddam, A., Antonio, C.A.T., Antony, C.M., Anvari, D., Appiah, S.C.Y., Arabloo, J., Arab-Zozani, M., Aravkin, A.Y., Arba, A.A.K., Aripov, T., Ärnlöv, J., Arowosegbe, O.O., Asaad, M., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Asadi-Pooya, A.A., Ashbaugh, C., Assmus, M., Atout, M.M.W., Ausloos, M., Ausloos, F., Ayala Quintanilla, B.P., Ayano, G., Ayanore, M.A., Azari, S., Azene, Z.N., Babaee, E., Badawi, A., Badiye, A.D., Bagherzadeh, M., Bairwa, M., Bakhtiari, A., Bakkannavar, S.M., Balachandran, A., Banach, M., Banerjee, S.K., Banik, P.C., Baraki, A.G., Barker-Collo, S.L., Basaleem, H., Basu, S., Baune, B.T., Bayati, M., Baye, B.A., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Bell, M.L., Bensenor, I.M., Berhe, K., Berman, A.E., Bhagavathula, A.S., Bhala, N., Bhardwaj, P., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z.A., Bijani, A., Bikbov, B., Biondi, A., Bisignano, C., Biswas, R.K., Bjørge, T., Bohlouli, S., Bohluli, M., Bolla, S.R.R., Boloor, A., Bose, D., Boufous, S., Brady, O.J., Braithwaite, D., Brauer, M., Breitborde, N.J.K, Brenner, H., Breusov, A.V., Briant, P.S., Briggs, A.M., Britton, G.B., Brugha, T., Burugina Nagaraja, S., Busse, R., Butt, Z.A., Caetano dos Santos, F.L., Cámera, L.L.A., Campos-Nonato, I.R., Campuzano Rincon, J.C., Car, J., Cárdenas, R., Carreras, G., Carrero, J. J., Carvalho, F., Castaldelli-Maia, J.M., Castelpietra, G., Castro, F., Catalá-López, F., Causey, K., Cederroth, C.R., Cercy, K.M., Cerin, E., Chandan, J.S., Chang, J-C, Charan, J., Charlson, F. J., Chattu, V.K., Chaturvedi, S., Cherbuin, N., Chin, K.L., Chirinos-Caceres, J.L., Cho, D.Y., Choi, J-Y.J., Chu, D-T, Chung, S-C, Chung, M.T., Cicuttini, F.M., Cirillo, M., Cislaghi, B., Cohen, A.J., Compton, K., Corso, B., Cortesi, P.A., Costa, V.M., Cousin, E., Cowden, R.G., Cross, M., Crowe, C.S., Cummins, S., Dai, H., Damiani, G., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daneshpajouhnejad, P., Darwesh, A.M., Das, J.K., Das Gupta, R., das Neves, J., Davey, G., Dávila-Cervantes, C.A., Davis, A.C., De Leo, D., Denova-Gutiérrez, E., Deribe, K., Dervenis, N., Desai, R., Deuba, K., Dhungana, G.P., Dianatinasab, M., Diaz, D., Dichgans, M., Didarloo, A., Dippenaar, I.N., Dokova, K., Dolecek, C., Dorostkar, F., Doshi, P.P., Doshi, C.P., Doshmangir, L., Doxey, M.C., Driscoll, T.R., Duncan, B.B., Eagan, A.W., Ebrahimi, H., Ebrahimi Kalan, M., Edvardsson, D., Ehrlich, J.R., Elbarazi, I., Elgendy, I.Y., El-Jaafary, S.I., El Sayed Zaki, M., Elsharkawy, A., El Tantawi, M., Elyazar, I.R.F., Emamian, M.H., Eshrati, B., Eskandarieh, S., Esteghamati, A., Esteghamati, S., Fanzo, J., Faro, A., Farzadfar, F., Fattahi, N., Feigin, V.L, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E., Ferrara, P., Ferrari, A.J., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Fisher, J.L., Fitzgerald, R., Foigt, N.A., Folayan, M.O., Fomenkov, A.A., Foroutan, M., Franklin, R.C., Freitas, M., Fukumoto, T., Furtado, J.M., Gad, M.M., Gaidhane, A.M., Gakidou, E., Gallus, S., Gardner, W.M., Geberemariyam, B.S., Gebremedhin, K.B., Gebremeskel, L.G., Gebresillassie, B.M., Geramo, Y.C.D., Gesesew, H.A., Gething, P.W., Gezae, K.E., Ghadiri, K., Ghaffarifar, F., Ghafourifard, M., Ghamari, F., Ghashghaee, A., Gholamian, A., Giampaoli, S., Gill, P.S., Gillum, R.F., Ginawi, I.A., Giussani, G., Gnedovskaya, E.V., Godinho, M.A., Golechha, M., Gona, P.N., Gopalani, S.V., Gorini, G., Goulart, B.N.G., Goulart, A.C., Grada, A., Greaves, F., Gudi, N., Guimarães, R.A., Guo, Y., Gupta, S.S., Gupta, R., Haagsma, J.A., Hachinski, V., Hafezi-Nejad, N., Haile, L.M., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hall, B. J., Hamadeh, R.R., Hamidi, S., Han, C., Hankey, G.J., Haro, J.M., Hasaballah, A.I., Hashi, A., Hassan, A., Hassanipour, S., Hassankhani, H., Havmoeller, R. 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J., Kayode, G.A., Kazemi Karyani, A., Keiyoro, P., Khalid, N., Khammarnia, M., Khan, M., Khan, E.A., Khan, G., Khatab, K., Khater, M.M., Khatib, M.N., Khazaie, H., Khoja, A.T., Khubchandani, J., Kianipour, N., Kieling, C., Kim, Y-E, Kim, Y.J., Kimokoti, R.W., Kinfu, Y., Kisa, S., Kisa, A., Kissoon, N., Kivimäki, M., Kneib, C.J., Knight, M., Koh, D.S.Q., Komaki, H., Kopec, J.A., Kosen, S., Kotlo, A., Koul, P.A., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Krohn, K.J., KS, S., Kumar, G.A., Kumar, N., Kumar, M., Kurmi, O.P., Kusuma, D., Kyu, H.H., Lacey, B., Lal, D.K., Lalloo, R., Lallukka, T., Lan, Q., Landires, I., Larson, H.J., Lasrado, S., Lau, K.M-M, Lauriola, P., La Vecchia, C., Leal, L.F., Leasher, J.L., Ledesma, J.R., Lee, P.H., Lee, S.W.H., Leonardi, M., Leung, J., Li, B., Li, S., Lim, L-L, Lin, R-T, Listl, S., Liu, X., Liu, Y., Logroscino, G., Lopez, J.C.F., Lorkowski, S., Lozano, R., Lu, A., Lugo, A., Lunevicius, R., Lyons, R.A., Ma, J., Machado, D.B., Maddison, E.R., Mahasha, P.W., Mahmoudi, M., Majeed, A., Maled, V., Maleki, S., Maleki, A., Malekzadeh, R., Malta, D.C., Mamun, A.A., Manguerra, H., Mansouri, B., Mansournia, M.A., Mantilla Herrera, A.M., Martini, S., Martins-Melo, F.R., Martopullo, I., Masoumi, S.Z., Massenburg, B.B., Mathur, M.R., Maulik, P.K., Mazidi, M., McAlinden, C., McGrath, J.J., McKee, M., Mehndiratta, M.M., Mehri, F., Mehta, K.M., Melese, A., Memish, Z.A., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R.G., Mengesha, E.W., Meretoja, T.J., Meretoja, A., Mestrovic, T., Miazgowski, B., Michalek, I.M., Milne, G.J., Miri, M., Mirica, A., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Mirzaei, H., Mirzaei, M., Mirzaei-Alavijeh, M., Misganaw, A.T., Moazen, B., Moghadaszadeh, M., Mohajer, B., Mohamad, O., Mohammad, Y., Mohammad, D.K., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N., Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A., Mohammed, S., Mohebi, F., Mokdad, A.H., Molokhia, M., Monasta, L., Mooney, M.D., Moradi, M., Moradi, G., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moradzadeh, R., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Morgado-da-Costa, J., Morrison, S.D., Mosapour, A., 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- Abstract
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.
- Published
- 2020
3. Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
- Author
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Shetty B.S.K., Stein C., Stokes M.A., Sufiyan M.B., Suleria H.A.R., Sultan I., Szumowski L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tadakamadla S.K., Taddele B.W., Tadesse D.B., Taherkhani A., Tamiru A.T., Tanser F.C., Tareque M.I., Tarigan I.U., Teagle W.L., Tediosi F., Tefera Y.G.G., Tela F.G., Tessema Z.T., Thakur B., Titova M.V., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tovani-Palone M.R.R., Tran B.X., Travillian R., Troeger C.E., Tudor Car L., Uddin R., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Uthman O.A., Vacante M., Valdez P.R., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., Vasseghian Y., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vongpradith A., Vos T., Waheed Y., Walters M.K., Wamai R.G., Wang H., Wang Y.-P., Weintraub R.G., Weiss J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Wilner L.B., Woldu G., Wolfe C.D.A., Wu A.-M., Wulf Hanson S., Xie Y., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S.H., Yamagishi K., Yano Y., Yaya S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi V., Yearwood J.A., Yeshitila Y.G., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefi Z., Yousefinezhadi T., Yusefzadeh H., Zadey S., Zahirian Moghadam T., Zaidi S.S., Zaki L., Zaman S.B., Zamanian M., Zandian H., Zastrozhin M.S., Zewdie K.A., Zhang Y., Zhao X.-J.G., Zhao Y., Zheng P., Zhu C., Ziapour A., Zlavog B.S., Zodpey S., Murray C.J.L., Lozano R., Fullman N., Mumford J.E., Knight M., Barthelemy C.M., Abbafati C., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdollahi M., Abedi A., Abolhassani H., Abosetugn A.E., Abreu L.G., Abrigo M.R.M., Abu Haimed A.K., Abushouk A.I., Adabi M., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adelson J., Adetokunboh O.O., Adham D., Advani S.M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agasthi P., Aghamir S.M.K., Agrawal A., Ahmad T., Akinyemi R.O., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Albertson S.B., Alemu Y.M., Alhassan R.K., Ali M., Ali S., Alipour V., Aljunid S.M., Alla F., Almadi M.A.H., Almasi A., Almasi-Hashiani A., Almasri N.A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Almulhim A.M., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Alvis-Zakzuk N.J., Amini S., Amini-Rarani M., Amiri F., Amit A.M.L., Amugsi D.A., Ancuceanu R., Anderlini D., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Ansari F., Ansari-Moghaddam A., Antonio C.A.T., Antony C.M., Antriyandarti E., Anvari D., Anwer R., Arabloo J., Arab-Zozani M., Aravkin A.Y., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Asaad M., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Asadi-Pooya A.A., Athari S.S., Atout M.M.W., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayano G., Ayanore M.A., Aynalem Y.A., Aynalem G.L., Ayza M.A., Azari S., Azzopardi P.S., B D.B., Babaee E., Badiye A.D., Bahrami M.A., Baig A.A., Bakhshaei M.H., Bakhtiari A., Bakkannavar S.M., Balachandran A., Banach M., Banerjee S.K., Banik P.C., Bante A.B., Bante S.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Bassat Q., Basu S., Baune B.T., Bayati M., Baye B.A., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bekuma T.T.T., Bell M.L., Bensenor I.M., Berman A.E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhandari D., Bhardwaj P., Bhat A.G., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bilano V., Biondi A., Birihane B.M., Bockarie M.J., Bohlouli S., Bojia H.A., Bolla S.R.R., Boloor A., Brady O.J., Braithwaite D., Briggs A.M., Briko N.I., Burugina Nagaraja S., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Caetano dos Santos F.L., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Camera L.A., Cardenas R., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castelpietra G., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cederroth C.R., Cerin E., Chandan J.S., Chang A.Y., Charan J., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi S., Chin K.L., Cho D.Y., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Chu D.-T., Chung M.T., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Compton K., Cortesi P.A., Costa V.M., Cousin E., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Dandona L., Dandona R., Darega Gela J., Darwesh A.M., Daryani A., Dash A.P., Davey G., Davila-Cervantes C.A., Davletov K., De Neve J.-W., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Desai R., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhungana G.P., Dianatinasab M., Dias da Silva D., Diaz D., Dippenaar I.N., Do H.T., Dorostkar F., Doshmangir L., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Eagan A.W., Edvardsson D., El Sayed I., El Tantawi M., Elgendy I.Y., Elyazar I.R., Eskandari K., Eskandarieh S., Esmaeilnejad S., Esteghamati A., Ezekannagha O., Farag T., Farahmand M., Faraon E.J.A., Farinha C.S.E.S., Farioli A., Faris P.S., Faro A., Fazlzadeh M., Feigin V.L., Fernandes E., Ferrara P., Feyissa G.T., Filip I., Fischer F., Fisher J.L., Flor L.S., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Fomenkov A.A., Foroutan M., Francis J.M., Fu W., Fukumoto T., Furtado J.M., Gad M.M., Gaidhane A.M., Gakidou E., Galles N.C., Gallus S., Gardner W.M., Geberemariyam B.S., Gebrehiwot A.M., Gebremeskel L.G., Gebremeskel G.G., Gesesew H.A., Ghadiri K., Ghafourifard M., Ghashghaee A., Ghith N., Gholamian A., Gilani S.A., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginindza T.G., Gitimoghaddam M., Giussani G., Glagn M., Gnedovskaya E.V., Godinho M.A., Goharinezhad S., Gopalani S.V., Goudarzian A.H., Goulart B.N.G., Gubari M.I.M., Guimaraes R.A., Guled R.A., Gultie T., Guo Y., Gupta R., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hafiz A., Haile T.G., Hamadeh R.R., Hameed S., Hamidi S., Han C., Han H., Handiso D.W., Hanif A., Hankey G.J., Haro J.M., Hasaballah A.I., Hasan M.M., Hashi A., Hassan S., Hassan A., Hassanipour S., Hassankhani H., Havmoeller R.J., Hay S.I., Hayat K., Heidari G., Heidari-Soureshjani R., Hendrie D., Herteliu C., Hird T.R., Ho H.C., Hole M.K., Holla R., Hoogar P., Hopf K.P., Horita N., Hossain N., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Househ M., Hsieh V.C.-R., Hu G., Huda T.M., Humayun A., Hwang B.-F., Iavicoli I., Ibitoye S.E., Ikeda N., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic M.D., Inbaraj L.R., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam M.M., Islam S.M.S., Islami F., Iso H., Iwu C.J., Jaafari J., Jadidi-Niaragh F., Jafarinia M., Jahagirdar D., Jahani M.A., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M., Janjani H., Javaheri T., Jayatilleke A.U., Jenabi E., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Jia P., John-Akinola Y.O., Jonas J.B., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Kamath A.M., Kanchan T., Kapoor N., Karami Matin B., Karanikolos M., Karimi S.M., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kayode G.A., Keiyoro P.N., Khader Y.S., Khammarnia M., Khan M., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khatab K., Khater A.M., Khater M.M., Khatib M.N., Khayamzadeh M., Khubchandani J., Kianipour N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Kneib C.J., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kohler S., Kopec J.A., Korotkova A.V., Korshunov V.A., Kosen S., Kotlo A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kugbey N., Kulkarni V., Kumar G.A., Kumar N., Kumar M., Kurmi O.P., Kusuma D., Kyu H.H., La Vecchia C., Lacey B., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Landires I., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A.O., Lasrado S., Lau K.M.-M., Lauriola P., Lazarus J.V., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Lee S.W.H., Leever A.T., LeGrand K.E., Leigh J., Leonardi M., Li S., Lim S.S., Lim L.-L., Liu X., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lopukhov P.D., Lotufo P.A., Lu A., Ma J., Madadin M., Mahasha P.W., Mahmoudi M., Majeed A., Malagon-Rojas J.N., Maleki S., Malta D.C., Mansouri B., Mansournia M.A., Martini S., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Massenburg B.B., Mastrogiacomo C.I., Mathur M.R., McAlinden C., McKee M., Medina-Solis C.E., Meharie B.G., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrabi Nasab E., Mehri F., Mehrotra R., Mekonnen T., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Meretoja A., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski B., Michalek I.M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mirzaei M., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Mitchell P.B., Moazen B., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohamadi E., Mohammad Y., Mohammad D.K., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammed S., Mohammed J.A., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Mondello S., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Morgado-da-Costa J., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Mosser J.F., Mousavi Khaneghah A., Muriithi M.K., Mustafa G., Nabhan A.F., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Naghavi M., Naghshtabrizi B., Naimzada M.D., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak V.C., Nazari J., Ndejjo R., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane S., Ngari K.N., Nguefack-Tsague G., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen D.N., Nguyen H.L.T., Nnaji C.A., Nomura S., Norheim O.F., Noubiap J.J., Nowak C., Nunez-Samudio V., Otoiu A., Ogbo F.A., Oghenetega O.B., Oh I.-H., Okunga E.W., Oladnabi M., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya J.O., Olusanya B.O., Oluwasanu M.M., Omar Bali A., Omer M.O., Ong K.L., Onwujekwe O.E., Ortega-Altamirano D.V.V., Ortiz A., Ostojic S.M., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov S.S., Overland S., Owolabi M.O., Padubidri J.R., Pakhale S., Palladino R., Pana A., Panda-Jonas S., Pangaribuan H.U., Pathak M., Patton G.C., Paudel S., Pazoki Toroudi H., Pease S.A., Peden A.E., Pennini A., Peprah E.K., Pereira J., Pigott D.M., Pilgrim T., Pilz T.M., Pinheiro M., Piradov M.A., Pirsaheb M., Pokhrel K.N., Postma M.J., Pourjafar H., Pourmalek F., Pourmirza Kalhori R., Pourshams A., Prada S.I., Pribadi D.R.A., Pupillo E., Quazi Syed Z., Radfar A., Rafiee A., Rafiei A., Raggi A., Rahim F., Rahman M.A., Rajabpour-Sanati A., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rao S.J., Rasella D., Rashedi V., Rath G.K., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D.L., Rawal L., Rawassizadeh R., Razo C., Renjith V., Renzaho A.M.N., Reshmi B., Rezaei N., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro D.C., Rickard J., Roberts N.L.S., Roever L., Romoli M., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rubagotti E., Rwegerera G.M., Sabour S., Sachdev P.S., Saddik B., Sadeghi M., Sadeghi E., Safari Y., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi S.M., Salahshoor M.R., Salem M.R.R., Salem H., Salomon J., Samadi Kafil H., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Santric-Milicevic M.M., Saraswathy S.Y.I., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Sarveazad A., Sathian B., Sathish T., Sattin D., Savic M., Sawyer S.M., Saxena D., Sbarra A.N., Schaeffer L.E., Schiavolin S., Schmidt M.I., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sha F., Shahabi S., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsizadeh M., Shannawaz M., Sharafi K., Sharara F., Sharifi H., Shaw D.H., Sheikh A., Sheikhtaheri A., Shibuya K., Shiferaw W.S., Shigematsu M., Shin J.I., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shivakumar K.M., Shrime M.G., Shuval K., Siabani S., Sierpinski R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Sigurvinsdottir R., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Simonetti B., Simpson K.E., Singh J.A., Singh P., Sinha D.N., Skryabin V.Y., Smith E.U.R., Soheili A., Soltani S., Soofi M., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sorrie M.B., Soyiri I.N., Spurlock E.E., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stanaway J.D., Steel N., Shetty B.S.K., Stein C., Stokes M.A., Sufiyan M.B., Suleria H.A.R., Sultan I., Szumowski L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tadakamadla S.K., Taddele B.W., Tadesse D.B., Taherkhani A., Tamiru A.T., Tanser F.C., Tareque M.I., Tarigan I.U., Teagle W.L., Tediosi F., Tefera Y.G.G., Tela F.G., Tessema Z.T., Thakur B., Titova M.V., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tovani-Palone M.R.R., Tran B.X., Travillian R., Troeger C.E., Tudor Car L., Uddin R., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Uthman O.A., Vacante M., Valdez P.R., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., Vasseghian Y., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vongpradith A., Vos T., Waheed Y., Walters M.K., Wamai R.G., Wang H., Wang Y.-P., Weintraub R.G., Weiss J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Wilner L.B., Woldu G., Wolfe C.D.A., Wu A.-M., Wulf Hanson S., Xie Y., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S.H., Yamagishi K., Yano Y., Yaya S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi V., Yearwood J.A., Yeshitila Y.G., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefi Z., Yousefinezhadi T., Yusefzadeh H., Zadey S., Zahirian Moghadam T., Zaidi S.S., Zaki L., Zaman S.B., Zamanian M., Zandian H., Zastrozhin M.S., Zewdie K.A., Zhang Y., Zhao X.-J.G., Zhao Y., Zheng P., Zhu C., Ziapour A., Zlavog B.S., Zodpey S., Murray C.J.L., Lozano R., Fullman N., Mumford J.E., Knight M., Barthelemy C.M., Abbafati C., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdollahi M., Abedi A., Abolhassani H., Abosetugn A.E., Abreu L.G., Abrigo M.R.M., Abu Haimed A.K., Abushouk A.I., Adabi M., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adelson J., Adetokunboh O.O., Adham D., Advani S.M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agasthi P., Aghamir S.M.K., Agrawal A., Ahmad T., Akinyemi R.O., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Albertson S.B., Alemu Y.M., Alhassan R.K., Ali M., Ali S., Alipour V., Aljunid S.M., Alla F., Almadi M.A.H., Almasi A., Almasi-Hashiani A., Almasri N.A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Almulhim A.M., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Alvis-Zakzuk N.J., Amini S., Amini-Rarani M., Amiri F., Amit A.M.L., Amugsi D.A., Ancuceanu R., Anderlini D., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Ansari F., Ansari-Moghaddam A., Antonio C.A.T., Antony C.M., Antriyandarti E., Anvari D., Anwer R., Arabloo J., Arab-Zozani M., Aravkin A.Y., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Asaad M., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Asadi-Pooya A.A., Athari S.S., Atout M.M.W., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayano G., Ayanore M.A., Aynalem Y.A., Aynalem G.L., Ayza M.A., Azari S., Azzopardi P.S., B D.B., Babaee E., Badiye A.D., Bahrami M.A., Baig A.A., Bakhshaei M.H., Bakhtiari A., Bakkannavar S.M., Balachandran A., Banach M., Banerjee S.K., Banik P.C., Bante A.B., Bante S.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Bassat Q., Basu S., Baune B.T., Bayati M., Baye B.A., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bekuma T.T.T., Bell M.L., Bensenor I.M., Berman A.E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhandari D., Bhardwaj P., Bhat A.G., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bilano V., Biondi A., Birihane B.M., Bockarie M.J., Bohlouli S., Bojia H.A., Bolla S.R.R., Boloor A., Brady O.J., Braithwaite D., Briggs A.M., Briko N.I., Burugina Nagaraja S., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Caetano dos Santos F.L., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Camera L.A., Cardenas R., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castelpietra G., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cederroth C.R., Cerin E., Chandan J.S., Chang A.Y., Charan J., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi S., Chin K.L., Cho D.Y., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Chu D.-T., Chung M.T., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Compton K., Cortesi P.A., Costa V.M., Cousin E., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Dandona L., Dandona R., Darega Gela J., Darwesh A.M., Daryani A., Dash A.P., Davey G., Davila-Cervantes C.A., Davletov K., De Neve J.-W., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Desai R., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhungana G.P., Dianatinasab M., Dias da Silva D., Diaz D., Dippenaar I.N., Do H.T., Dorostkar F., Doshmangir L., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Eagan A.W., Edvardsson D., El Sayed I., El Tantawi M., Elgendy I.Y., Elyazar I.R., Eskandari K., Eskandarieh S., Esmaeilnejad S., Esteghamati A., Ezekannagha O., Farag T., Farahmand M., Faraon E.J.A., Farinha C.S.E.S., Farioli A., Faris P.S., Faro A., Fazlzadeh M., Feigin V.L., Fernandes E., Ferrara P., Feyissa G.T., Filip I., Fischer F., Fisher J.L., Flor L.S., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Fomenkov A.A., Foroutan M., Francis J.M., Fu W., Fukumoto T., Furtado J.M., Gad M.M., Gaidhane A.M., Gakidou E., Galles N.C., Gallus S., Gardner W.M., Geberemariyam B.S., Gebrehiwot A.M., Gebremeskel L.G., Gebremeskel G.G., Gesesew H.A., Ghadiri K., Ghafourifard M., Ghashghaee A., Ghith N., Gholamian A., Gilani S.A., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginindza T.G., Gitimoghaddam M., Giussani G., Glagn M., Gnedovskaya E.V., Godinho M.A., Goharinezhad S., Gopalani S.V., Goudarzian A.H., Goulart B.N.G., Gubari M.I.M., Guimaraes R.A., Guled R.A., Gultie T., Guo Y., Gupta R., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hafiz A., Haile T.G., Hamadeh R.R., Hameed S., Hamidi S., Han C., Han H., Handiso D.W., Hanif A., Hankey G.J., Haro J.M., Hasaballah A.I., Hasan M.M., Hashi A., Hassan S., Hassan A., Hassanipour S., Hassankhani H., Havmoeller R.J., Hay S.I., Hayat K., Heidari G., Heidari-Soureshjani R., Hendrie D., Herteliu C., Hird T.R., Ho H.C., Hole M.K., Holla R., Hoogar P., Hopf K.P., Horita N., Hossain N., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Househ M., Hsieh V.C.-R., Hu G., Huda T.M., Humayun A., Hwang B.-F., Iavicoli I., Ibitoye S.E., Ikeda N., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic M.D., Inbaraj L.R., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam M.M., Islam S.M.S., Islami F., Iso H., Iwu C.J., Jaafari J., Jadidi-Niaragh F., Jafarinia M., Jahagirdar D., Jahani M.A., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M., Janjani H., Javaheri T., Jayatilleke A.U., Jenabi E., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Jia P., John-Akinola Y.O., Jonas J.B., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Kamath A.M., Kanchan T., Kapoor N., Karami Matin B., Karanikolos M., Karimi S.M., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kayode G.A., Keiyoro P.N., Khader Y.S., Khammarnia M., Khan M., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khatab K., Khater A.M., Khater M.M., Khatib M.N., Khayamzadeh M., Khubchandani J., Kianipour N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Kneib C.J., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kohler S., Kopec J.A., Korotkova A.V., Korshunov V.A., Kosen S., Kotlo A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kugbey N., Kulkarni V., Kumar G.A., Kumar N., Kumar M., Kurmi O.P., Kusuma D., Kyu H.H., La Vecchia C., Lacey B., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Landires I., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A.O., Lasrado S., Lau K.M.-M., Lauriola P., Lazarus J.V., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Lee S.W.H., Leever A.T., LeGrand K.E., Leigh J., Leonardi M., Li S., Lim S.S., Lim L.-L., Liu X., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lopukhov P.D., Lotufo P.A., Lu A., Ma J., Madadin M., Mahasha P.W., Mahmoudi M., Majeed A., Malagon-Rojas J.N., Maleki S., Malta D.C., Mansouri B., Mansournia M.A., Martini S., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Massenburg B.B., Mastrogiacomo C.I., Mathur M.R., McAlinden C., McKee M., Medina-Solis C.E., Meharie B.G., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrabi Nasab E., Mehri F., Mehrotra R., Mekonnen T., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Meretoja A., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski B., Michalek I.M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mirzaei M., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Mitchell P.B., Moazen B., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohamadi E., Mohammad Y., Mohammad D.K., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammed S., Mohammed J.A., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Mondello S., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Morgado-da-Costa J., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Mosser J.F., Mousavi Khaneghah A., Muriithi M.K., Mustafa G., Nabhan A.F., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Naghavi M., Naghshtabrizi B., Naimzada M.D., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak V.C., Nazari J., Ndejjo R., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane S., Ngari K.N., Nguefack-Tsague G., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen D.N., Nguyen H.L.T., Nnaji C.A., Nomura S., Norheim O.F., Noubiap J.J., Nowak C., Nunez-Samudio V., Otoiu A., Ogbo F.A., Oghenetega O.B., Oh I.-H., Okunga E.W., Oladnabi M., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya J.O., Olusanya B.O., Oluwasanu M.M., Omar Bali A., Omer M.O., Ong K.L., Onwujekwe O.E., Ortega-Altamirano D.V.V., Ortiz A., Ostojic S.M., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov S.S., Overland S., Owolabi M.O., Padubidri J.R., Pakhale S., Palladino R., Pana A., Panda-Jonas S., Pangaribuan H.U., Pathak M., Patton G.C., Paudel S., Pazoki Toroudi H., Pease S.A., Peden A.E., Pennini A., Peprah E.K., Pereira J., Pigott D.M., Pilgrim T., Pilz T.M., Pinheiro M., Piradov M.A., Pirsaheb M., Pokhrel K.N., Postma M.J., Pourjafar H., Pourmalek F., Pourmirza Kalhori R., Pourshams A., Prada S.I., Pribadi D.R.A., Pupillo E., Quazi Syed Z., Radfar A., Rafiee A., Rafiei A., Raggi A., Rahim F., Rahman M.A., Rajabpour-Sanati A., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rao S.J., Rasella D., Rashedi V., Rath G.K., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D.L., Rawal L., Rawassizadeh R., Razo C., Renjith V., Renzaho A.M.N., Reshmi B., Rezaei N., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro D.C., Rickard J., Roberts N.L.S., Roever L., Romoli M., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rubagotti E., Rwegerera G.M., Sabour S., Sachdev P.S., Saddik B., Sadeghi M., Sadeghi E., Safari Y., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi S.M., Salahshoor M.R., Salem M.R.R., Salem H., Salomon J., Samadi Kafil H., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Santric-Milicevic M.M., Saraswathy S.Y.I., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Sarveazad A., Sathian B., Sathish T., Sattin D., Savic M., Sawyer S.M., Saxena D., Sbarra A.N., Schaeffer L.E., Schiavolin S., Schmidt M.I., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sha F., Shahabi S., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsizadeh M., Shannawaz M., Sharafi K., Sharara F., Sharifi H., Shaw D.H., Sheikh A., Sheikhtaheri A., Shibuya K., Shiferaw W.S., Shigematsu M., Shin J.I., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shivakumar K.M., Shrime M.G., Shuval K., Siabani S., Sierpinski R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Sigurvinsdottir R., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Simonetti B., Simpson K.E., Singh J.A., Singh P., Sinha D.N., Skryabin V.Y., Smith E.U.R., Soheili A., Soltani S., Soofi M., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sorrie M.B., Soyiri I.N., Spurlock E.E., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stanaway J.D., and Steel N.
- Abstract
Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Method(s): Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (>=65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UH
- Published
- 2020
4. Apolipoprotein E (sub epsilon)4 and impaired episodic memory in community-dwelling elderly people: a marked sex difference: the Hordaland Health Study
- Author
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Lehmann, D.J., Refsum, H., Nurk, E., Warden, D.R., Tell, G.S., Vollset, S.E., Engedal, K., Nygaard, H.A., and Smith, A.D.
- Subjects
Apolipoproteins -- Research ,Apolipoproteins -- Physiological aspects ,Aged patients -- Research ,Aged patients -- Physiological aspects ,Cognition disorders -- Research ,Sex research -- Evaluation ,Health ,Psychology and mental health - Published
- 2006
5. Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study
- Author
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Fitzmaurice, C. Abate, D. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdelalim, A. Abdoli, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulle, A.S.M. Abebe, N.D. Abraha, H.N. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abualhasan, A. Adedeji, I.A. Advani, S.M. Afarideh, M. Afshari, M. Aghaali, M. Agius, D. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadian, E. Ahmadpour, E. Ahmed, M.B. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemiju, T. Al-Aly, Z. Alabdulkader, A.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, T. Alamene, G.M. Alemnew, B.T.T. Alene, K.A. Alinia, C. Alipour, V. Aljunid, S.M. Bakeshei, F.A. Almadi, M.A.H. Almasi-Hashiani, A. Alsharif, U. Alsowaidi, S. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amini, E. Amini, S. Amoako, Y.A. Anbari, Z. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, F. Ansariadi, A. Appiah, S.C.Y. Arab-Zozani, M. Arabloo, J. Arefi, Z. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Artaman, A. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Ashagre, A.F. Assadi, R. Ataeinia, B. Atalay, H.T. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Awoke, N. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayanore, M.A. Ayele, H.T. Babaee, E. Bacha, U. Badawi, A. Bagherzadeh, M. Bagli, E. Balakrishnan, S. Balouchi, A. Barnighausen, T.W. Battista, R.J. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belay, Y.B. Belayneh, Y.M. Berfield, K.K.S. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Beuran, M. Bhakta, N. Bhattacharyya, K. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Birungi, C. Bisignano, C. Bitew, H. Bjorge, T. Bleyer, A. Bogale, K.A. Bojia, H.A. Borzi, A.M. Bosetti, C. Bou-Orm, I.R. Brenner, H. Brewer, J.D. Briko, A.N. Briko, N.I. Bustamante-Teixeira, M.T. Butt, Z.A. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castro, C. Castro, F. Catala-Lopez, F. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chanie, W.F. Chattu, V.K. Chaturvedi, P. Chauhan, N.S. Chehrazi, M. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chichiabellu, T.Y. Chido-Amajuoyi, O.G. Chimed-Ochir, O. Choi, J.-Y.J. Christopher, D.J. Chu, D.-T. Constantin, M.-M. Costa, V.M. Crocetti, E. Crowe, C.S. Curado, M.P. Dahlawi, S.M.A. Damiani, G. Darwish, A.H. Daryani, A. Das Neves, J. Demeke, F.M. Demis, A.B. Demissie, B.W. Demoz, G.T. Denova-Gutierrez, E. Derakhshani, A. Deribe, K.S. Desai, R. Desalegn, B.B. Desta, M. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Diaz, D. Dinberu, M.T.T. Djalalinia, S. Doku, D.T. Drake, T.M. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Ebrahimi, H. Effiong, A. Eftekhari, A. El Sayed, I. Zaki, M.E.S. El-Jaafary, S.I. El-Khatib, Z. Elemineh, D.A. Elkout, H. Ellenbogen, R.G. Elsharkawy, A. Emamian, M.H. Endalew, D.A. Endries, A.Y. Eshrati, B. Fadhil, I. Fallah, V. Faramarzi, M. Farhangi, M.A. Farioli, A. Farzadfar, F. Fentahun, N. Fernandes, E. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Fisher, J.L. Force, L.M. Foroutan, M. Freitas, M. Fukumoto, T. Futran, N.D. Gallus, S. Gankpe, F.G. Gayesa, R.T. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremeskel, G.G. Gedefaw, G.A. Gelaw, B.K. Geta, B. Getachew, S. Gezae, K.E. Ghafourifard, M. Ghajar, A. Ghashghaee, A. Gholamian, A. Gill, P.S. Ginindza, T.T.G. Girmay, A. Gizaw, M. Gomez, R.S. Gopalani, S.V. Gorini, G. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Ribeiro Guerra, M. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Hadkhale, K. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Hanfore, L.K. Haro, J.M. Hasankhani, M. Hasanzadeh, A. Hassen, H.Y. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Herteliu, C. Hidru, H.D. Hoang, C.L. Hole, M.K. Hoogar, P. Horita, N. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Househ, M. Hussen, M.M. Ileanu, B. Ilic, M.D. Innos, K. Irvani, S.S.N. Iseh, K.R. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jafari Balalami, N. Jafarinia, M. Jahangiry, L. Jahani, M.A. Jahanmehr, N. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayaraman, S. Jee, S.H. Jenabi, E. Jha, R.P. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Joo, T. Jungari, S.B. Jurisson, M. Kabir, A. Kamangar, F. Karch, A. Karimi, N. Karimian, A. Kasaeian, A. Kasahun, G.G. Kassa, B. Kassa, T.D. Kassaw, M.W. Kaul, A. Keiyoro, P.N. Kelbore, A.G. Kerbo, A.A. Khader, Y.S. Khalilarjmandi, M. Khan, E.A. Khan, G. Khang, Y.-H. Khatab, K. Khater, A. Khayamzadeh, M. Khazaee-Pool, M. Khazaei, S. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kianipour, N. Kim, D. Kim, Y.J. Kisa, A. Kisa, S. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Komaki, H. Koyanagi, A. Krohn, K.J. Bicer, B.K. Kugbey, N. Kumar, V. Kuupiel, D. La Vecchia, C. Lad, D.P. Lake, E.A. Lakew, A.M. Lal, D.K. Lami, F.H. Lan, Q. Lasrado, S. Lauriola, P. Lazarus, J.V. Leigh, J. Leshargie, C.T. Liao, Y. Limenih, M.A. Listl, S. Lopez, A.D. Lopukhov, P.D. Lunevicius, R. Madadin, M. Magdeldin, S. El Razek, H.M.A. Majeed, A. Maleki, A. Malekzadeh, R. Manafi, A. Manafi, N. Manamo, W.A. Mansourian, M. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Maroufizadeh, S. Martini, S.M.S. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Maswabi, M.T. Mathur, M.R. McAlinden, C. McKee, M. Meheretu, H.A.A. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, V. Meier, T. Melaku, Y.A. Meles, G.G. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Mendoza, W. Menezes, R.G. Merat, S. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Mihretie, K.M.M. Miller, T.R. Mills, E.J. Mir, S.M. Mirzaei, H. Mirzaei, H.R. Mishra, R. Moazen, B. Mohammad, D.K. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammad, Y. Darwesh, A.M. Mohammadbeigi, A. Mohammadi, H. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadian, M. Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A. Mohammadoo-Khorasani, M. Mohammadpourhodki, R. Mohammed, A.S. Mohammed, J.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moosazadeh, M. Moossavi, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Joo, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradpour, F. Morawska, L. Morgado-Da-costa, J. Morisaki, N. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muhammed, O.S.S. Musa, J. Nabhan, A.R. Naderi, M. Nagarajan, A.J. Nagel, G. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nasiri, N. Nazari, J. Negoi, I. Neupane, S. Newcomb, P.A. Nggada, H.A. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, C.T. Nikniaz, L. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nixon, M.R. Nnaji, C.A. Nojomi, M. Nosratnejad, S. Shiadeh, M.N. Obsa, M.S. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Oluwasanu, M.M. Omonisi, A.E. Onwujekwe, O.E. Oommen, A.M. Oren, E. Ortega-Altamirano, D.D.V. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Owolabi, M.O. P A, M. Padubidri, J.R. Pakhale, S. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Park, E.-K. Parsian, H. Pashaei, T. Patel, S. Patil, S.T. Pennini, A. Pereira, D.M. Piccinelli, C. Pillay, J.D. Pirestani, M. Pishgar, F. Postma, M.J. Pourjafar, H. Pourmalek, F. Pourshams, A. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Qorbani, M. Rabiee, M. Rabiee, N. Radfar, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, M. Rahman, M.A. Rajati, F. Rana, S.M. Raoofi, S. Rath, G.K. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reiner, R.C. Renzaho, A.M.N. Rezaei, N. Rezapour, A. Ribeiro, A.I. Ribeiro, D. Ronfani, L. Roro, E.M. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Saad, R.S. Sabbagh, P. Sabour, S. Saddik, B. Safiri, S. Sahebkar, A. Salahshoor, M.R. Salehi, F. Salem, H. Salem, M.R. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sartorius, B. Sarveazad, A. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Savic, M. Sawhney, M. Sayyah, M. Schneider, I.J.C. Schottker, B. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Sepehrimanesh, M. Seyedmousavi, S. Shaahmadi, F. Shabaninejad, H. Shahbaz, M. Shaikh, M.A. Shamshirian, A. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, Z. Sharif, M. Sharifi, A. Sharifi, H. Sharma, R. Sheikh, A. Shirkoohi, R. Shukla, S.R. Si, S. Siabani, S. Silva, D.A.S. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, A. Singh, J.A. Sisay, S. Sitas, F. Sobngwi, E. Soofi, M. Soriano, J.B. Stathopoulou, V. Sufiyan, M.B. Tabares-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Takahashi, K. Tamtaji, O.R. Tarawneh, M.R. Tassew, S.G. Taymoori, P. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Tesfay, B.E. Tesfay, F.H. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, G.A. Thapa, S. Tlaye, K.G. Topor-Madry, R. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Traini, E. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tsadik, A.G. Ullah, I. Uthman, O.A. Vacante, M. Vaezi, M. Varona Perez, P. Veisani, Y. Vidale, S. Violante, F.S. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vu, G.T. Vujcic, I.S. Wabinga, H. Wachamo, T.M. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Weldegebreal, F. Weldesamuel, G.T. Wijeratne, T. Wondafrash, D.Z. Wonde, T.E. Wondmieneh, A.B. Workie, H.M. Yadav, R. Yadegar, A. Yadollahpour, A. Yaseri, M. Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V. Yeshaneh, A. Yimam, M.A. Yimer, E.M. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Younis, M.Z. Yousefi, B. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zabeh, E. Zadnik, V. Moghadam, T.Z. Zaidi, Z. Zamani, M. Zandian, H. Zangeneh, A. Zaki, L. Zendehdel, K. Zenebe, Z.M. Zewale, T.A. Ziapour, A. Zodpey, S. Murray, C.J.L. Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration
- Abstract
Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
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- 2019
6. Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))
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Stanaway, J.D. Afshin, A. Gakidou, E. Lim, S.S. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adane, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, A. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, S. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Ali, K. Ali, S.M. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antó, J.M. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Ball, K. Ballew, S.H. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bjørge, T. Blacker, B.F. Bleyer, A. Borschmann, R. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brauer, M. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briko, A.N. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Buchbinder, R. Burnett, R.T. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahill, L.E. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Cárdenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Causey, K. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chang, K.-L. Charlson, F.J. Chattopadhyay, A. Chattu, V.K. Chee, M.L. Cheng, C.-Y. Chew, A. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chin, K.L. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Cirillo, M. Cohen, A.J. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Cooper, O.R. Coresh, J. Cornaby, L. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Cundiff, D.K. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dadi, A.F. Damasceno, A.A.M. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Darby, S.C. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De la Cruz-Góngora, V. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degenhardt, L. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Deshpande, A. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Deveber, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Diro, H.D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebert, N. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Estep, K. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farid, T.A. Sá Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzaei, M.H. Fatima, B. Fay, K.A. Fazaeli, A.A. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrara, G. Ferrari, A.J. Ferreira, M.L. Filip, I. Finger, J.D. Fischer, F. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gall, S. Gallus, S. Gamkrelidze, A. Ganji, M. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K.G. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghosh, R. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Ginawi, I.A. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Godwin, W.W. Goli, S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Goulart, A.C. Grada, A. Grams, M.E. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guo, Y. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutiérrez, R.A. Gutiérrez-Torres, D.S. Haagsma, J.A. Habtewold, T.D. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, S.I. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. 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Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vu, G.T. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Waller, S.G. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.H. Weldegebreal, F. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, J.J. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wong, T.Y. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, H. Zhang, K. Zhou, M. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators
- Abstract
Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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- 2019
7. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017
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Frank, T.D. Carter, A. Jahagirdar, D. Biehl, M.H. Douwes-Schultz, D. Larson, S.L. Arora, M. Dwyer-Lindgren, L. Steuben, K.M. Abbastabar, H. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abyu, D.M. Adabi, M. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, K. Ahmadian, E. Ahmadpour, E. Ahmed, M.B. Akal, C.G. Alahdab, F. Alam, N. Albertson, S.B. Alemnew, B.T.T. Alene, K.A. Alipour, V. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amini, S. Anbari, Z. Anber, N.H. Anjomshoa, M. Antonio, C.A.T. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Asfaw, E.T. Ashagre, A.F. Asmelash, D. Asrat, A.A. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Awoke, N. Ayanore, M.A. Azari, S. Badawi, A. Bagherzadeh, M. Banach, M. Barac, A. Bärnighausen, T.W. Basu, S. Bedi, N. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.B. Belayneh, Y.M.M. Berhane, A. Bhat, A.G. Bhattacharyya, K. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, M. Bitew, H. Blinov, A. Bogale, K.A. Bojia, H.A. Burugina Nagaraja, S.B.N. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Carvalho, F. Chattu, V.K. Christopher, D.J. Chu, D.-T. Crider, R. Dahiru, T. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Daryani, A. Das Neves, J. De Neve, J.-W. Degenhardt, L. Demeke, F.M. Demis, A.B.B. Demissie, D.B. Demoz, G.T. Deribe, K. Des Jarlais, D. Dhungana, G.P. Diaz, D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Doan, L.P. Duber, H. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duko Adema, B. Effiong, A. Eftekhari, A. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Jaafary, S.I. El-Khatib, Z. Elsharkawy, A. Endries, A.Y. Eskandarieh, S. Eyawo, O. Farzadfar, F. Fatima, B. Fentahun, N. Fernandes, E. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Folayan, M.O. Foroutan, M. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gayesa, R.T. Gebremedhin, K.B. Gebremeskel, G.G. Gebreyohannes, K.K. Gedefaw, G.A. Gelaw, B.K. Gesesew, H.A. Geta, B. Gezae, K.E. Ghadiri, K. Ghashghaee, A. Ginindza, T.T.G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimarães, R.A. Haile, M.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamidi, S. Handanagic, S. Handiso, D.W. Hanfore, L.K. Hasanzadeh, A. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Hay, S.I. Henok, A. Hoang, C.L. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hsairi, M. Ibitoye, S.E. Idrisov, B. Ikuta, K.S. Ilesanmi, O.S. Irvani, S.S.N. Iwu, C.J. Jacobsen, K.H. James, S.L. Jenabi, E. Jha, R.P. Jonas, J.B. Jorjoran Shushtari, Z. Kabir, A. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, B. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kayode, G.A. Kebede, M.M. Kefale, A.T. Kengne, A.P. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khalid, N. Khan, E.A. Khan, G. Khan, J. Khang, Y.-H. Khatab, K. Khazaei, S. Khoja, A.T. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kim, Y.J. Kisa, A. Kisa, S. Kochhar, S. Komaki, H. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kuate Defo, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuupiel, D. Lal, D.K. Lee, J.J.-H. Lenjebo, T.L. Leshargie, C.T. Macarayan, E.R.K. Maddison, E.R. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magis-Rodriguez, C. Mahasha, P.W. Majdan, M. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Manafi, N. Mapoma, C.C. Martins-Melo, F.R. Masaka, A. Mayenga, E.N.L. Mehta, V. Meles, G.G. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mena, A.T. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miller, T.R. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, A. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammad, Y. Mohammad Darwesh, A. Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadibakhsh, R. Mohammadoo-Khorasani, M. Mohammed, J.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Moodley, Y. Moossavi, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moschos, M.M. Mossie, T.B. Mousavi, S.M. Muchie, K.F. Muluneh, A.G. Muriithi, M.K. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nagarajan, A.J. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Nazari, J. Ndwandwe, D.E. Nguyen, C.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, S.H. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nnaji, C.A. Noroozi, M. Noubiap, J.J. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Obsa, M.S. Odame, E.A. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olum, S. Oppong Asante, K. Oren, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Mahesh, P.A. Padubidri, J.R. Pakhale, S. Pakpour, A.H. Patel, S.K. Paulos, K. Pepito, V.C.F. Peprah, E.K. Piroozi, B. Pourshams, A. Qorbani, M. Rabiee, M. Rabiee, N. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, S.U. Ranabhat, C.L. Rawaf, S. Reis, C. Renjith, V. Reta, M.A. Rezai, M.S. Rios González, C.M. Merdassa Roro, E.E.M. Rostami, A. Rubino, S. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, S. Sagar, R. Sahraian, M.A. Salem, M.R.R. Salimi, Y. Salomon, J.A. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sartorius, B. Satpathy, M. Sawhney, M. Sayyah, M. Schutte, A.E. Sepanlou, S.G. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shallo, S.A. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharifi, H. Shibuya, K. Shin, J.I. Shirkoohi, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Sisay, M.M.M. Sisay, M. Sisay, S. Smith, A.E. Sokhan, A. Somayaji, R. Soshnikov, S. Stein, D.J. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunguya, B.F. Sykes, B.L. Tadesse, B.T. Tadesse, D.B. Tamirat, K.S. Taveira, N. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Temesgen, H.D. Tesfay, F.H. Teshale, M.Y. Thapa, S. Tlaye, K.G. Topp, S.M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Ullah, I. Unnikrishnan, B. Uthman, O.A. Veisani, Y. Vladimirov, S.K. Wada, F.W. Waheed, Y. Weldegwergs, K.G. Weldesamuel, G.T.T. Westerman, R. Wijeratne, T. Wolde, H.F. Wondafrash, D.Z. Wonde, T.E. Wondmagegn, B.Y. Yeshanew, A.G. Yilma, M.T. Yimer, E.M. Yonemoto, N. Yotebieng, M. Youm, Y. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zarghi, A. Zenebe, Z.M. Zewale, T.A. Ziapour, A. Zodpey, S. Naghavi, M. Vollset, S.E. Wang, H. Lim, S.S. Kyu, H.H. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 HIV collaborators
- Abstract
Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s).
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- 2019
8. Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
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Feigin, V.L. Nichols, E. Alam, T. Bannick, M.S. Beghi, E. Blake, N. Culpepper, W.J. Dorsey, E.R. Elbaz, A. Ellenbogen, R.G. Fisher, J.L. Fitzmaurice, C. Giussani, G. Glennie, L. James, S.L. Johnson, C.O. Kassebaum, N.J. Logroscino, G. Marin, B. Mountjoy-Venning, W.C. Nguyen, M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Patel, A.P. Piccininni, M. Roth, G.A. Steiner, T.J. Stovner, L.J. Szoeke, C.E.I. Theadom, A. Vollset, S.E. Wallin, M.T. Wright, C. Zunt, J.R. Abbasi, N. Abd-Allah, F. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Acharya, D. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adeoye, A.M. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemi, R.O. Akseer, N. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Shahi Salman, R. Alahdab, F. Alene, K.A. Aljunid, S.M. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Anber, N.H. Antonio, C.A.T. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Asayesh, H. Asghar, R.J. Atalay, H.T. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayuk, T.B. Badawi, A. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Baune, B.T. Bedi, N. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berhane, A. Beuran, M. Bhattacharyya, K. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Blazes, C.K. Brayne, C. Butt, Z.A. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Cantu-Brito, C. Car, M. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, J.-C. Chatziralli, I. Chiang, P.P.-C. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Cooper, C. Cortesi, P.A. Costa, V.M. Criqui, M.H. Crowe, C.S. Damasceno, A.A.M. Daryani, A. De la Cruz-Góngora, V. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. Degefa, M.G. Demoz, G.T. Deribe, K. Dharmaratne, S.D. Diaz, D. Dinberu, M.T. Djalalinia, S. Doku, D.T. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Edvardsson, D. El-Khatib, Z. Endres, M. Endries, A.Y. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Farhadi, F. Faro, A. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Fatima, B. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Fukumoto, T. Ganji, M. Gankpe, F.G. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gebre, A.K. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelaw, B.K. Geleijnse, J.M. Geremew, D. Gezae, K.E. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Gidey, M.Y. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goulart, A.C. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Guo, Y. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Haagsma, J.A. Hagos, T.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Haro, J.M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, S.I. Hegazy, M.I. Heidari, B. Henok, A. Heydarpour, F. Hoang, C.L. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hosseini, S.M. Hu, G. Igumbor, E.U. Ilesanmi, O.S. Irvani, S.S.N. Islam, S.M.S. Jakovljevic, M. Javanbakht, M. Jha, R.P. Jobanputra, Y.B. Jonas, J.B. Józwiak, J.J. Jürisson, M. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kalkonde, Y. Kamil, T.A. Kanchan, T. Karami, M. Karch, A. Karimi, N. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, T.D. Kassa, Z.Y. Kaul, A. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khazaie, H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, A.S. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kisa, A. Kokubo, Y. Koyanagi, A. Krishnamurthi, R.V. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, M. Lacey, B. Lafranconi, A. Lansingh, V.C. Latifi, A. Leshargie, C.T. Li, S. Liao, Y. Linn, S. Lo, W.D. Lopez, J.C.F. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lucas, R.M. Lunevicius, R. Mackay, M.T. Mahotra, N.B. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Manafi, N. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. März, W. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Mate, K.K.V. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. Mehta, V. Meier, T. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Miller, T.R. Mini, G.K. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, M. Mohammadibakhsh, R. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Monasta, L. Mondello, S. Moodley, Y. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Moreno Velásquez, I. Morrison, S.D. Mousavi, S.M. Muhammed, O.S. Muruet, W. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Naderi, M. Nagel, G. Naheed, A. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, C.T. Nguyen, L.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nixon, M.R. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nyasulu, P.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Onwujekwe, O.E. Oren, E. Owolabi, M.O. A, M.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pan, W.-H. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandian, J.D. Patel, S.K. Pereira, D.M. Petzold, M. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Polanczyk, G.V. Polinder, S. Postma, M.J. Poulton, R. Poustchi, H. Prakash, S. Prakash, V. Qorbani, M. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rajati, F. Ram, U. Ranta, A. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reinig, N. Reis, C. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Rios González, C.M. Roberts, N.L.S. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roro, E.M. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Sabbagh, P. Sacco, R.L. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Safari, H. Safari-Faramani, R. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahathevan, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Salamati, P. Salehi Zahabi, S. Salimi, Y. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Santos, I.S. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schwebel, D.C. Seedat, S. Sepanlou, S.G. Shabaninejad, H. Shafieesabet, A. Shaikh, M.A. Shakir, R.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. She, J. Sheikh, A. Sheth, K.N. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silberberg, D.H. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soofi, M. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Stein, D.J. Stein, M.B. Stokes, M.A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Te Ao, B.J. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Thakur, J.S. Thrift, A.G. Topor-Madry, R. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Truelsen, T.C. Tsadik, A.G. Tudor Car, L. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Valdez, P.R. Vasankari, T.J. Vasanthan, R. Veisani, Y. Venketasubramanian, N. Violante, F.S. Vlassov, V. Vosoughi, K. Vu, G.T. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weiss, J. Whiteford, H.A. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Xu, G. Yadollahpour, A. Yamada, T. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yatsuya, H. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zandian, H. Zare, Z. Zhang, Y. Zodpey, S. Naghavi, M. Murray, C.J.L. Vos, T. GBD 2016 Neurology Collaborators
- Abstract
Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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- 2019
9. Factor V Leiden, pregnancy complications and adverse outcomes: the Hordaland Homocysteine Study
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Nurk, E., Tell, G.S., Refsum, H., Ueland, P.M., and Vollset, S.E.
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- 2006
10. Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))
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GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators Roth, G.A. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemi, R.O. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alonso, J. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Aminde, L.N. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Aremu, O. Arnlov, J. Arora, A. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Bacha, U. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Ballesteros, K.E. Banach, M. Banerjee, K. Bannick, M.S. Banoub, J.A.M. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Barnighausen, T.W. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Bassat, Q. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bejot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Blacker, B.F. Basara, B.B. Borschmann, R. Bosetti, C. Bozorgmehr, K. Brady, O.J. Brant, L.C. Brayne, C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Callender, C.S.K.H. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Car, M. Cardenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castaneda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castle, C.D. Castro, C. Castro, F. Catala-Lopez, F. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, J.-C. Charlson, F.J. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Cohen, A.J. Cooper, L.T. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Cousin, E. Cowie, B.C. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Crump, J.A. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dang, A.K. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das, S.K. Gupta, R.D. Neves, J.D. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis, A.C. Davis Weaver, N. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De La Hoz, F.P. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B.B. Denova-Gutierrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dicker, D. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Dirac, M.A. Djalalinia, S. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Donnelly, C.A. Dorsey, E.R. Doshi, P.P. Douwes-Schultz, D. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Khatib, Z. Elkout, H. Ellingsen, C.L. Endres, M. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farinha, C.S.E. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Furst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gallus, S. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, B. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Gibney, K.B. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Ginawi, I.A. Giroud, M. Giussani, G. Goenka, S. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gomez-Dantes, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutierrez, R.A. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, P. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoek, H.W. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Husseini, A. Hussen, M.M. Hutfless, S. Idrisov, B. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, N. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Jalu, M.T. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jenkins, K.J. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Johnson, C.O. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jurisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kazi, D.S. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kibret, G.D. Kidanemariam, Z.T. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimaki, M. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kutz, M.J. Kuzin, I. Kyu, H.H. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lam, J.O. Lami, F.H. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Lebedev, G. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, J. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Lonsdale, C. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lunevicius, R. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. MacLachlan, J.H. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Manda, A.-L. Mandarano-Filho, L.G. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marczak, L. Marks, A. Marks, G.B. Martinez, G. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. Marz, W. Marzan, M.B. Masci, J.R. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Mathur, P. Matzopoulos, R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonnen, T.C. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirabi, P. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohan, V. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Velasquez, I.M. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Nair, S. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Natarajan, G. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, T.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Shiadeh, M.N. Nowroozi, M.R. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K.S. Oren, E. Orpana, H.M. Ortiz, A. Ortiz, J.R. Otstavnov, S.S. Overland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Ozdemir, R. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandian, J.D. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paulson, K.R. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Phillips, M.R. Piel, F.B. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Polinder, S. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Pujar, A. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Qorbani, M. Quintana, H. Quistberg, D.A. Rade, K.W. Anwar Rafay, A.R. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rai, R.K. Rajsic, S. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rao, P.C. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Razo-Garcia, C. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Roberts, N.L.S. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Rothenbacher, D. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Safari, H. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. De Freitas Saldanha, R. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Dolores Sanchez-Nino, M. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Jose, B.P.S. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suarez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schottker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Servan-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silberberg, D.H. Santos Silva, D.A. Silva, J.P. Da Silva, N.T. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, P.K. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Sliwa, K. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Sobngwi, E. Soneji, S.S. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Starodubov, V.I. Stathopoulou, V. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabares-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Taveira, N. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Tessema, G.A. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, N. Thrift, A.G. Thurston, G.D. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tobe-Gai, R. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbes, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathi, S. Troeger, C.E. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsoi, D. Tudor Car, L. Murat Tuzcu, E. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Undurraga, E.A. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wallin, M.T. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Wu, Y.-C. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yakob, B. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yentur, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yirsaw, B.D. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yonga, G. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, A.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, K. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zuhlke, L.J. Naghavi, M. Murray, C.J.L.
- Abstract
GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
- Published
- 2018
11. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- Author
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Dicker, D. Nguyen, G. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abdurahman, A.A. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abebo, T.A. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, P. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.L.C.B. Ahmed, S. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alebel, A. Aleman, A.V. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. 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Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zachariah, G. Zadnik, V. Zafar, S. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeeb, H. Zeleke, M.M. Zenebe, Z.M. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, K. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lopez, A.D. Gakidou, E. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators
- Abstract
Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s).
- Published
- 2018
12. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- Author
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Vujcic, I.S. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whisnant, J.L. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Wilner, L.B. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolde, H.F. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Xu, R. Yadollahpour, A. Jabbari, S.H.Y. Yakob, B. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yearwood, J.A. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yirsaw, B.D. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yonga, G. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zegeye, D.T. Zegeye, E.A. Zeleke, A.J. Zendehdel, K. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Zoeckler, L. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lim, S.S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 SDG Collaborators
- Abstract
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
- Published
- 2018
13. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- Author
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Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Murphy, T.B. Muller, K. Murthy, G.V.S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, P. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Nawaz, H. Ncama, B.P. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nisar, M.I. Nixon, M.R. Nomura, S. Noroozi, M. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nyandwi, A. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogah, O.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, S.K. Ortiz, A. Osgood-Zimmerman, A. Ota, E. Otieno, B.A. Otstavnov, S.S. Owolabi, M.O. Oyekale, A.S. Mahesh, P.A. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pana, A. Panda, B.K. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandey, A.R. Park, E.-K. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paudel, D. Pedroso, M.M. Peprah, E.K. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petri, W.A. Petzold, M. Pierce, M. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Polanczyk, G.V. Postma, M.J. Pourmalek, F. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Quansah, R. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.S. Ur Rahman, M.H. Rahman, M.A. Ur Rahman, S. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Ray, S.E. Razo-García, C. Reiner, R.C. Reis, C. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Roberts, N.L.S. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Rubagotti, E. Ruhago, G.M. Sabde, Y.D. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Moghaddam, S.S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salahshoor, M. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saldanha, R.D.F. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Santos, I.S. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Saroshe, S. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Schaeffner, E. Schelonka, K. Schneider, I.J.C. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shakir, R.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, J. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shukla, S.R. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silpakit, N. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Sliwa, K. Soares Filho, A.M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soofi, M. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Starodubov, V.I. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Strong, M. Subart, M.L. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabb, K.M. Tadakamadla, S.K. Tandon, N. Tassew, A.A. Tassew, S.G. Taveira, N. Tawye, N.Y. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temsah, M.-H. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thakur, J.S. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, N. Thomson, A.J. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Toyoshima, H. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathy, S.P. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsegay, A. Tsilimparis, N. Car, L.T. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Vasconcelos, A.M.N. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Wyper, G.M.A. Xu, G. Yamada, T. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yentür, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, M.M. Zenebe, Z.M. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, X. Zhao, X.-J. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Zoeckler, L. Lopez, A.D. Lim, S.S. GBD 2017 Population Fertility Collaborators
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Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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14. The state of US health, 1990-2016: Burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors among US states
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Jonas, J.B., Huang, H., Nguyen, M., Gona, P., Younis, M., Murray, C.J.L., Hay, S.I., Wallin, M., Alam, T., Ferrari, A.J., Kinfu, Y., Al-Aly, Z., Breitborde, N., Werdecker, A., Ballestros, K., Zipkin, B., Leung, R., Krohn, K.J., Kim, D., Kandel, A., Brauer, M., Cahill, L., Moses, M., The US Burden of Disease Collaborators, Unutzer, J., Leasher, J., Santomauro, D., Mirarefin, M., Khan, A.R., Cooper, L., Kyu, H., Bhutta, Z., Biryukov, S., Degenhardt, L., Fitzmaurice, C., Nachega, J.B., Jayaraman, S., Ong, K., Miller, T., Mozaffarian, D., Ahmadi, A., Briant, P., Nichols, E., Lee, A., Ray Dorsey, E., Dean Hosgood, H., James, S., Liu, P., Griswold, M., Nsoesie, E., Mokdad, A.H., Salomon, J., Echko, M., Sunshine, J.E., Skirbekk, V., Patton, G.C., Oren, E., Tabb, K., Martopullo, I., Vos, T., Hotez, P., Olsen, H.E., Kolte, D., Farvid, M., Kasaeian, A., Vollset, S.E., Serdar, B., Yadgir, S., Khubchandani, J., Akinyemiju, T., Hu, G., Criqui, M., Soneji, S., Schwebel, D.C., Amrock, S., Fullman, N., Troeger, C., Mullany, E., Whiteford, H.A., Kimokoti, R., Farid, T., Yano, Y., Leung, J., Gebrehiwot, T.T., Topor-Madry, R., Mehari, A., Cornaby, L., Chen, H., Rehm, C.D., Carter, A., Roth, G.A., Handal, A., Bazargan-Hejazi, S., Biroscak, B., Tsoi, D., Bärnighausen, T., Havmoller, R., Stranges, S., Glenn, S., Frank, T., Horino, M., Park, E.-K., Colombara, D., Sykes, B.L., Erskine, H.E., Abbas, K., Bell, M., Singh, J.A., Anderson, B., Charlson, F.J., Sanabria, J.R., Wagner, G., Patel, T., Sartorius, B., Ding, E.L., and Qorbani, M.
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INTRODUCTION Several studies have measured health outcomes in the United States, but none have provided a comprehensive assessment of patterns of health by state. OBJECTIVE To use the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to report trends in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors at the state level from 1990 to 2016. DESIGN AND SETTING A systematic analysis of published studies and available data sources estimates the burden of disease by age, sex, geography, and year. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 causes and 84 risk factors with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. RESULTS Between 1990 and 2016, overall death rates in the United States declined from 745.2 (95% UI, 740.6 to 749.8) per 100 000 persons to 578.0 (95% UI, 569.4 to 587.1) per 100 000 persons. The probability of death among adults aged 20 to 55 years declined in 31 states and Washington, DC from 1990 to 2016. In 2016, Hawaii had the highest life expectancy at birth (81.3 years) and Mississippi had the lowest (74.7 years), a 6.6-year difference. Minnesota had the highest HALE at birth (70.3 years), and West Virginia had the lowest (63.8 years), a 6.5-year difference. The leading causes of DALYs in the United States for 1990 and 2016 were ischemic heart disease and lung cancer, while the third leading cause in 1990 was low back pain, and the third leading cause in 2016 was chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Opioid use disorders moved from the 11th leading cause of DALYs in 1990 to the 7th leading cause in 2016, representing a 74.5% (95% UI, 42.8% to 93.9%) change. In 2016, each of the following 6 risks individually accounted for more than 5% of risk-attributable DALYs: tobacco consumption, high body mass index (BMI), poor diet, alcohol and drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high blood pressure. Across all US states, the top risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs were due to 1 of the 3 following causes: tobacco consumption (32 states), high BMI (10 states), or alcohol and drug use (8 states). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE There are wide differences in the burden of disease at the state level. Specific diseases and risk factors, such as drug use disorders, high BMI, poor diet, high fasting plasma glucose level, and alcohol use disorders are increasing and warrant increased attention. These data can be used to inform national health priorities for research, clinical care, and policy.
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- 2018
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15. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
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Kyu, H.H. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abil, O.Z. Aboyans, V. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Ackerman, I.N. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alonso, J. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Aminde, L.N. Amini, E. Amiresmaili, M. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, A. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belachew, A.B. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhatt, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Bjorge, T. Bleyer, A. Bobasa, E.M. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brant, L.C. Brayne, C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. Briko, A.N. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Buchbinder, R. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castaneda-Orjuela, C.A. Rivas, J.C. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, J.-C. Charlson, F.J. Chattu, V.K. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Cirillo, M. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Cross, M. Crump, J.A. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Davitoiu, D.V. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. De Steur, H. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Deiparine, S. Demoz, G.T. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dinberu, M.T. Dirac, M.A. Djalalinia, S. Doan, L. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Dorsey, E.R. Doyle, K.E. 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Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Williams, H.C. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Woolf, A.D. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zandian, H. Zar, H.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zipkin, B. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 DALYs HALE Collaborators
- Abstract
Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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- 2018
16. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
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James, S.L. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Ackerman, I.N. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alouani, M.M.L. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Aminde, L.N. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Arabloo, J. Arauz, A. Aremu, O. Ariani, F. Armoon, B. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, A. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asghar, R.J. Ataro, Z. Atre, S.R. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Ballesteros, K.E. Ballew, S.H. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Belachew, A.B. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bensenor, I.M. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Blacker, B.F. Blyth, F.M. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brainin, M. Brant, L.C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. Briggs, A.M. Briko, A.N. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Buchbinder, R. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Cano, J. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, A.R. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Charlson, F.J. Chattopadhyay, A. Chattu, V.K. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chin, K.L. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Claro, R.M. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Coresh, J. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Cross, M. Crump, J.A. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Davey, G. Davis, A.C. Davitoiu, D.V. De Courten, B. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dinberu, M.T. Dirac, M.A. Djalalinia, S. Doan, L. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Dorsey, E.R. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Echko, M.M. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Ehrlich, J.R. El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Khatib, Z. Elkout, H. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Fakhim, H. Fallah Omrani, V. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Feigin, V.L. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fox, J. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gall, S. Ganji, M. Gankpe, F.G. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghosh, R. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Ginawi, I.A. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Grams, M.E. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Haghparast Bidgoli, H. Hagos, T.B. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Heibati, B. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoang, H.T. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, H.J. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Htet, A.S. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Huynh, C.K. Iburg, K.M. Ikeda, C.T. Ileanu, B. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Mohammed, S. Islam, S. Islami, F. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, C.O. Jonas, J.B. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kanchan, T. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kawakami, N. Kazemi Karyani, A. Keighobadi, M.M. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemmer, L. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khazaei, M. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, P. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimäki, M. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosen, S. Kotsakis, G.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kyu, H.H. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lami, F.H. Lansingh, V.C. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Leasher, J.L. Ledesma, J.R. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leung, J. Levi, M. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, Y. Liao, Y. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Liu, S. Lodha, R. Looker, K.J. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Low, N. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lucchesi, L.R. Lunevicius, R. Lyons, R.A. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Mahotra, N.B. Mai, H.T. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Manguerra, H. Manhertz, T. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Mapoma, C.C. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Matsushita, K. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Melese, A. Melku, M. Meltzer, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezerji, N.M.G. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miltz, B. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitchell, P.B. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Moitra, M. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Moreno Velásquez, I. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Murhekar, M. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Nagata, C. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Natarajan, G. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nguyen, S.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. 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Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saleem, K. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sang, Y. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Saylan, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shishani, K. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Slepak, E.L.N. Sliwa, K. Smith, D.L. Smith, M. Soares Filho, A.M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Sobngwi, E. Soneji, S.S. Soofi, M. Soosaraei, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Steiner, T.J. Stokes, M.A. Stovner, L.J. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylte, D.O. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tadakamadla, S.K. Tadesse, B.T. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Taylor, H.R. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teweldemedhin, M. Thankappan, K.R. Thomas, N. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Topouzis, F. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Troeger, C.E. Truelsen, T.C. Tsilimbaris, M.K. Tsoi, D. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Undurraga, E.A. Unutzer, J. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Waller, S.G. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. West, T.E. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Woolf, A.D. Wu, S. Wu, Y.-C. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, A.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zhang, K. Zhao, Z. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Vos, T. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Disease Injury Incidence Prevalence Collaborators
- Abstract
Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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- 2018
17. Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
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Shen J., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Steckling N., Stein D.J., Sufiyan M.B., Sur P.J., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tavakkoli M., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekle M.G., Thapa S., Thomas N., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tran B.X., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimparis N., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Valdez P.R., Van Boven J.F.M., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yano Y., Ye P., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zachariah G., Zaidi Z., Zamani M., Zhang X., Zodpey S., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Murray C.J.L., Gakidou E., Griswold M.G., Fullman N., Hawley C., Arian N., Zimsen S.R.M., Tymeson H.D., Venkateswaran V., Tapp A.D., Forouzanfar M.H., Salama J.S., Abate K.H., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Aboyans V., Abrar M.M., Acharya P., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhikari T.B., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Agardh E.E., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmed M.B., Akibu M., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al Asfoor D.H., Al-Aly Z., Alahdab F., Alam K., Albujeer A., Alene K.A., Ali R., Ali S.D., Alijanzadeh M., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Allebeck P., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Aminde L.N., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Amul G.G.H., Andrei C.L., Angus C., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Assadi R., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayele H.T., Ayer R., Ayuk T.B., Azzopardi P.S., Badali H., Badawi A., Banach M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barrero L.H., Basaleem H., Baye E., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Belachew A.B., Belay S.A., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Beyene A.S., Beyranvand T., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bililign N., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bizuneh H., Bjerregaard P., Bjorge T., Borges G., Bosetti C., Boufous S., Bragazzi N.L., Brenner H., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Calabria B., Campos-Nonato I.R., Rincon J.C.C., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chaturvedi P., Chowdhury R., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Ciobanu L.G., Claro R.M., Conti S., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Dachew B.A., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Neves J., Davletov K., De Castro F., De Courten B., De Neve J.-W., Degenhardt L., Demoz G.T., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dhaliwal R.S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Doku D.T., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duncan B.B., Ebrahimi H., Edessa D., El Sayed Zaki M., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Esteghamati A., Faramarzi M., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Felisbino-Mendes M.S., Fernandes E., Ferrari A.J., Ferri C.P., Fijabi D.O., Filip I., Finger J.D., Fischer F., Flaxman A.D., Franklin R.C., Futran N.D., Gallus S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Ghadimi R., Ghandour L.A., Ghimire M., Gill P.S., Ginawi I.A., Giref A.Z.Z., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Goulart A.C., Greaves F., Grosso G., Guo Y., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Gvs M., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hay S.I., Heibati B., Henok A., Heredia-Pi I., Hernandez-Llanes N.F., Herteliu C., Ts Tsegaw Hibstu D., Hoogar P., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini M., Hostiuc M., Hu G., Huang H., Husseini A., Idrisov B., Ileanu B.V., Ilesanmi O.S., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Jackson M.D., Jakovljevic M., Jalu M.T., Jayatilleke A.U., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kapil U., Kasaeian A., Kassa T.D.D., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kebede S., Kefale A.T., Keiyoro P.N., Kengne A.P., Khader Y., Khafaie M.A., Khalil I.A., Khan M.N., Khang Y.-H., Khater M.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kivimaki M., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulkarni V.S., Kumar P., Lafranconi A., Balaji A.L., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lan Q., Lang J.J., Lansky S., Larsson A.O., Latifi A., Leasher J.L., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Lim L.-L., Linn S., Liu S., Lobato-Cordero A., Lopez A.D., Lotufo P.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Machado I.E., Madotto F., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mapoma C.C., Martinez-Raga J., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McKee M., Mehta V., Meier T., Mekonen T., Meles K.G., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammed S., Monasta L., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mousavi S.M., Mukhopadhyay S., Musa K.I., Naheed A., Naik G., Najafi F., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak M.S.D.P., Nejjari C., Neupane S., Neupane S.P., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nirayo Y.L., Noubiap J.J., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oommen A.M., Oren E., Orpana H.M., Ortega-Altamirano D.D.V., Ortiz J.R., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju S.B., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reiner R.C., Reis C., Renzaho A.M.N., Rezai M.S., Roever L., Ronfani L., Room R., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Sabde Y.D., Saddik B., Safiri S., Sahebkar A., Saleem Z., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D.F., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M.M., Sarker A.R., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Schaub M.P., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwendicke F., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Sharif M., She J., Sheikh A., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shishani K., Shiue I., Shukla S.R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Da Silva N.T., Silveira D.G.A., Sinha D.N., Sitas F., Filho A.M.S., Soofi M., Shen J., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Steckling N., Stein D.J., Sufiyan M.B., Sur P.J., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tavakkoli M., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekle M.G., Thapa S., Thomas N., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tran B.X., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimparis N., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Valdez P.R., Van Boven J.F.M., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yano Y., Ye P., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zachariah G., Zaidi Z., Zamani M., Zhang X., Zodpey S., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Murray C.J.L., Gakidou E., Griswold M.G., Fullman N., Hawley C., Arian N., Zimsen S.R.M., Tymeson H.D., Venkateswaran V., Tapp A.D., Forouzanfar M.H., Salama J.S., Abate K.H., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Aboyans V., Abrar M.M., Acharya P., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhikari T.B., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Agardh E.E., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmed M.B., Akibu M., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al Asfoor D.H., Al-Aly Z., Alahdab F., Alam K., Albujeer A., Alene K.A., Ali R., Ali S.D., Alijanzadeh M., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Allebeck P., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Aminde L.N., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Amul G.G.H., Andrei C.L., Angus C., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Assadi R., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayele H.T., Ayer R., Ayuk T.B., Azzopardi P.S., Badali H., Badawi A., Banach M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barrero L.H., Basaleem H., Baye E., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Belachew A.B., Belay S.A., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Beyene A.S., Beyranvand T., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bililign N., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bizuneh H., Bjerregaard P., Bjorge T., Borges G., Bosetti C., Boufous S., Bragazzi N.L., Brenner H., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Calabria B., Campos-Nonato I.R., Rincon J.C.C., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chaturvedi P., Chowdhury R., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Ciobanu L.G., Claro R.M., Conti S., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Dachew B.A., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Neves J., Davletov K., De Castro F., De Courten B., De Neve J.-W., Degenhardt L., Demoz G.T., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dhaliwal R.S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Doku D.T., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duncan B.B., Ebrahimi H., Edessa D., El Sayed Zaki M., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Esteghamati A., Faramarzi M., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Felisbino-Mendes M.S., Fernandes E., Ferrari A.J., Ferri C.P., Fijabi D.O., Filip I., Finger J.D., Fischer F., Flaxman A.D., Franklin R.C., Futran N.D., Gallus S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Ghadimi R., Ghandour L.A., Ghimire M., Gill P.S., Ginawi I.A., Giref A.Z.Z., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Goulart A.C., Greaves F., Grosso G., Guo Y., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Gvs M., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hay S.I., Heibati B., Henok A., Heredia-Pi I., Hernandez-Llanes N.F., Herteliu C., Ts Tsegaw Hibstu D., Hoogar P., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini M., Hostiuc M., Hu G., Huang H., Husseini A., Idrisov B., Ileanu B.V., Ilesanmi O.S., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Jackson M.D., Jakovljevic M., Jalu M.T., Jayatilleke A.U., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kapil U., Kasaeian A., Kassa T.D.D., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kebede S., Kefale A.T., Keiyoro P.N., Kengne A.P., Khader Y., Khafaie M.A., Khalil I.A., Khan M.N., Khang Y.-H., Khater M.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kivimaki M., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulkarni V.S., Kumar P., Lafranconi A., Balaji A.L., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lan Q., Lang J.J., Lansky S., Larsson A.O., Latifi A., Leasher J.L., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Lim L.-L., Linn S., Liu S., Lobato-Cordero A., Lopez A.D., Lotufo P.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Machado I.E., Madotto F., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mapoma C.C., Martinez-Raga J., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McKee M., Mehta V., Meier T., Mekonen T., Meles K.G., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammed S., Monasta L., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mousavi S.M., Mukhopadhyay S., Musa K.I., Naheed A., Naik G., Najafi F., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak M.S.D.P., Nejjari C., Neupane S., Neupane S.P., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nirayo Y.L., Noubiap J.J., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oommen A.M., Oren E., Orpana H.M., Ortega-Altamirano D.D.V., Ortiz J.R., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju S.B., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reiner R.C., Reis C., Renzaho A.M.N., Rezai M.S., Roever L., Ronfani L., Room R., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Sabde Y.D., Saddik B., Safiri S., Sahebkar A., Saleem Z., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D.F., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M.M., Sarker A.R., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Schaub M.P., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwendicke F., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Sharif M., She J., Sheikh A., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shishani K., Shiue I., Shukla S.R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Da Silva N.T., Silveira D.G.A., Sinha D.N., Sitas F., Filho A.M.S., and Soofi M.
- Abstract
Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. Method(s): Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. Finding(s): Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of agestandardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4.3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13.6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attrib
- Published
- 2018
18. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
- Author
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Soljak M., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tandon N., Tao T., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tegegne T.K., Shifa G.T., Terkawi A.S., Tessema G.A., Thakur J.S., Thankappan K.R., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Torre A., Tortajada M., Tran B.X., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Van Boven J.F.M., Van Donkelaar A., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zhang X., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Fullman N., Barber R.M., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Kiadaliri A.A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Antonio C.A.T., Ansari H., Anwari P., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Arthur Avokpaho E.F.G., Awasthi A., Azzopardi P., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Bilal A.I., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bizuayehu H.M., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Bose D., Bou-Orm I.R., Brauer M., Breitborde N.J.K., Brugha T.S., Bulto L.N.B., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Campuzano J.C., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Casey D.C., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Castro R.E., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chew A., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cooper C., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., De Steur H., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Deribe K., DeVeber G.A., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Ebel B.E., Ebrahimi H., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Faraon E.J.A., Sofia E Sa Farinha C., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Feigl A.B., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frank T., Franklin R.C., Friedman J., Frostad J.J., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Gakidou E., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gething P.W., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Glenn S.D., Godwin W.W., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goryakin Y., Griswold M., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Bidgoli H.H., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hammami M., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay S.I., He J., Hendrie D., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Hoek H.W., Holmberg M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Huang H., Huang J.J., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C., Inoue M., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jauregui A., Javanbakht M., Jeemon P., Jha V., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Kokubo Y., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulikoff X.R., Kumar G.A., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Lazarus J.V., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liben M.L., Linn S., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., El Razek H.M.A., El Razek M.M.A., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Mantovani L.G., Manyazewal T., Mapoma C.C., Marks G.B., Martin R.V., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Meier T., Meles K.G., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Hernandez J.C.M., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Moses M.W., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Noubiap J.J.N., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Patton G.C., Paulson K., Pereira D.M., Perico D.N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Piradov M.A., Pishgar F., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rao P.C., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf S., Reidy P., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Blancas M.J.R., Roba K.T., Rojas-Rueda D., Rokni M.B., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M.I., Shirude S., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schneider M.T., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Islam S.M.S., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shin M.-J., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Silberberg D.H., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L., Sligar A., Smith A., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soneji S., Sorensen R.J.D., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Strub B., Sufiyan M.B., Abdulkader R.S., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Soljak M., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tandon N., Tao T., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tegegne T.K., Shifa G.T., Terkawi A.S., Tessema G.A., Thakur J.S., Thankappan K.R., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Torre A., Tortajada M., Tran B.X., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Van Boven J.F.M., Van Donkelaar A., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zhang X., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Fullman N., Barber R.M., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Kiadaliri A.A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Antonio C.A.T., Ansari H., Anwari P., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Arthur Avokpaho E.F.G., Awasthi A., Azzopardi P., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Bilal A.I., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bizuayehu H.M., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Bose D., Bou-Orm I.R., Brauer M., Breitborde N.J.K., Brugha T.S., Bulto L.N.B., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Campuzano J.C., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Casey D.C., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Castro R.E., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chew A., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cooper C., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., De Steur H., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Deribe K., DeVeber G.A., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Ebel B.E., Ebrahimi H., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Faraon E.J.A., Sofia E Sa Farinha C., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Feigl A.B., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frank T., Franklin R.C., Friedman J., Frostad J.J., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Gakidou E., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gething P.W., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Glenn S.D., Godwin W.W., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goryakin Y., Griswold M., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Bidgoli H.H., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hammami M., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay S.I., He J., Hendrie D., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Hoek H.W., Holmberg M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Huang H., Huang J.J., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C., Inoue M., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jauregui A., Javanbakht M., Jeemon P., Jha V., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Kokubo Y., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulikoff X.R., Kumar G.A., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Lazarus J.V., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liben M.L., Linn S., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., El Razek H.M.A., El Razek M.M.A., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Mantovani L.G., Manyazewal T., Mapoma C.C., Marks G.B., Martin R.V., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Meier T., Meles K.G., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Hernandez J.C.M., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Moses M.W., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Noubiap J.J.N., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Patton G.C., Paulson K., Pereira D.M., Perico D.N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Piradov M.A., Pishgar F., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rao P.C., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf S., Reidy P., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Blancas M.J.R., Roba K.T., Rojas-Rueda D., Rokni M.B., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M.I., Shirude S., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schneider M.T., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Islam S.M.S., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shin M.-J., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Silberberg D.H., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L., Sligar A., Smith A., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soneji S., Sorensen R.J.D., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Strub B., Sufiyan M.B., Abdulkader R.S., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., and Swaminathan S.
- Abstract
Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Method(s): We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 25th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 975th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 567 (IQR 319-668) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (868, 95% uncertainty interval 846-889), Iceland (860, 841-876), and Sweden (856, 818-878) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (109, 96-119), the Central African Republic (110, 88-138), and Somalia (113, 95-131) recording the lowest. Betwee
- Published
- 2018
19. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
- Author
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Sartorius B., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Winkler A.S., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Wondemagegn S.A., Wu S., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yadav R., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., YentA1/4r G.K., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., York H.W., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zachariah G., Zadnik V., Zafar S., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeeb H., Zeleke M.M., Zenebe Z.M., Zerfu T.A., Zhang K., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zhu J., Zodpey S., Zucker I., Zuhlke L.J.J., Lopez A.D., Gakidou E., Murray C.J.L., de Courten B., Thrift A.G., 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Tortajada-GirbACopyrights M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Tripathi S., Tripathy S.P., Truelsen T.C., Truong N.T., Tsadik A.G., Tsilimparis N., Tudor Car L., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Uzun S.B., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Vaidya G., Valdez P.R., Varavikova E., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., and Vasconcelos A.M.N.
- Abstract
Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Method(s): The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent comp
- Published
- 2018
20. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
- Author
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Servan-Mori E., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Vaidya G., Valdez P.R., Van Donkelaar A., Varavikova E., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollmer S., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Werkneh A.A., West T.E., Westerman R., Whisnant J.L., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolde H.F., Wolfe C.D.A., Wu S., Xavier D., Xu G., Xu R., Yadollahpour A., Jabbari S.H.Y., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yonga G., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zavala-Arciniega 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Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Hsiao T., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C.K., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C.T., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam S.M.S., Islami F., Ivers R.Q., Izadi N., Jacobsen K.H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., Jalu M.T., Jamal A.A., James S.L., Jassal S.K., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jonnagaddala J., Shushtari Z.J., Joshi A., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., Jurisson M., Madhanraj K., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kahssay M., Kalani R., Kapil U., Karami M., Matin B.K., Karanikolos M., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Karimi-Sari H., Kasaeian A., Kassa D.H., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassa Z.Y., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Kazemi Z., Karyani A.K., Kazi D.S., Prakash K.C., Kebede S., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalid N., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khanna T., Khater M.M., Khatony A., Khazaeipour Z., Khazaie H., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Khubchandani J., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiarie H.W., Kibret G.D., Kiirithio D.N., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.-E., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kinra S., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosek M.N., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Kucuk Bicer B., Kudom A.A., Kulikoff X.R., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kumar P., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Lachat C., Lad D.P., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lagat A.K., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lamichhane P., Lan Q., Lang J.J., Lansingh V.C., Lansky S., Larson H.J., Larsson A.O., Laryea D.O., Lassi Z.S., Latifi A., Lau K.M.-M., Laxmaiah A., Lazarus J.V., Leasher J.L., Lebedev G., Ledesma J.R., Lee J.B., Lee P.H., Leever A.T., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Lewycka S., Li S., Li X., Li Y., Liang J., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Limenih M.A., Linn S., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lucchesi L.R., Lyons R.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., Madotto F., Maghavani D.P., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahotra N.B., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda A.-L., Mandarano-Filho L.G., Mangalam S., Manguerra H., Mansournia M.A., Mapoma C.C., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martin R.V., Martins S.C.O., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mathur M.R., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., McKee M., McMahon B.J., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Mekonnen T.C.C., Meles H.G., Melese A., Melku M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Millear A.I., Miller T.R., Miller-Petrie M.K., Milne G.J., Mini G.K., Minnig S.P., Mirabi P., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Mitchell P.B., Moazen B., Moghadamnia A.A., Mohajer B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi M., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed M.A., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mohan V., Mohebi F., Moitra M., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Montanez J.C., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morgado-da-Costa J., Morisaki N., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Moschos M.M., Mountjoy-Venning W.C., Mouodi S., Mousavi S.M., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Muhammed O.S.S., Mukhopadhyay S., Mullany E.C., Muller K., Mumford J.E., Murhekar M., Murthy G.V.S., Murthy S., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Muthupandian S., Nabhan A.F., Nachega J.B., Nagarajan 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Papantoniou N., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patel S., Pati S., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paturi V.R., Paudel D., Paulson K.R., Pearce N., Peprah E.K., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pervaiz A., Pesudovs K., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pirsaheb M., Pletcher M., Pond C.D., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Poustchi H., Prabhakaran D., Prakash S., Prasad N., Purcell C.A., Pyakurel M., Qorbani M., Quansah R., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.S., Rahman M.H.U., Rahman M.A., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rajsic S., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Ranjan P., Rasella D., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Razo-Garcia C., Reddy K.S., Reiner R.C., Reis C., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Reynales-Shigematsu L.M., Rezaei S., Rezaeian S., Rezai M.S., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro A.L.P., Rios-Blancas M.J., Roba K.T., Roberts N.L.S., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Sabde Y.D., Sachdev P.S., Saddik B., Sadeghi E., Safari H., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi H.S., Salam N., Salama J.S., Salamati P., De Freitas Saldanha R., Saleem Z., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Salz I., Sambala E.Z., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santos I.S., Milicevic M.M.S., Jose B.P.S., Sardana M., Sarker A.R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Sarvi S., Sathian B., Satpathy M., Savic M., Sawant A.R., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Sayyah M., Schaeffner E., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sekerija M., Sepanlou S.G., Seyedmousavi S., Shabaninejad H., Shackelford K.A., Shafieesabet A., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamsi M.B., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi H., Sharafi K., Sharif M., Sharif-Alhoseini M., Sharma J., Sharma R., Sharma S.K., She 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Tanser F.C., Tassew A.A., Tassew S.G., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tawye N.Y., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekalign T.G., Tekle M.G., Temesgen H., Temsah M.-H., Temsah O., Terkawi A.S., Teshale M.Y., Teshome D.F., Tessema B., Teweldemedhin M., Thakur J.S., Thankappan K.R., Theis A., Thirunavukkarasu S., Thomas L.A., Thomas N., Thomson A.J., Tilahun B., To Q.G., Tobe-Gai R., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Torre A.E., Tortajada-Girbes M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Tran T.T., Tripathy S.P., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsadik A.G., Car L.T., Tuzcu E.M., Tymeson H.D., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., and Updike R.L.
- Abstract
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Method(s): We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the prob
- Published
- 2018
21. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
- Author
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She J., Thankappan K.R., Thomas N., Tilahun B., To Q.G., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Torre A.E., Tortajada-Girbes M., Touvier M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimbaris M.K., Tsoi D., Tudor Car L., Tuzcu E.M., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Undurraga E.A., Unutzer J., Updike R.L., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Valdez P.R., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Waller S.G., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., West T.E., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Wilson S., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Woolf A.D., Wu S., Wu Y.-C., Wyper G.M.A., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yadollahpour A., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S.H., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zadnik V., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeleke A.J., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang K., Zhao Z., Zhou M., Zodpey S., Zucker I., Vos T., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Fox J., James S.L., Abate D., Abate K.H., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Abera S.F., Abil O.Z., Abraha H.N., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya D., Acharya P., Ackerman I.N., Adamu A.A., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adib M.G., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agesa K.M., Aggarwal R., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alahdab F., Alam K., Alam T., Alashi A., Alavian S.M., Alene K.A., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Alouani M.M.L., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Aminde L.N., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N.H., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Animut M.D., Anjomshoa M., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arabloo J., Arauz A., Aremu O., Ariani F., Armoon B., Arnlov J., Arora A., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Ataro Z., Atre S.R., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayer R., Azzopardi P.S., Babazadeh A., Badali H., Badawi A., Bali A.G., Ballesteros K.E., Ballew S.H., Banach M., Banoub J.A.M., Banstola A., Barac A., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bejot Y., Belachew A.B., Belay Y.A., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bensenor I.M., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Beuran M., Beyranvand T., Bhala N., Bhattarai S., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bilano V., Bililign N., Bin Sayeed M.S., Bisanzio D., Blacker B.F., Blyth F.M., Bou-Orm I.R., Boufous S., Bourne R., Brady O.J., Brainin M., Brant L.C., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Briant P.S., Briggs A.M., Briko A.N., Britton G., Brugha T., Buchbinder R., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cano J., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K.M., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Chang A.R., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi P., Chiang P.P.-C., Chin K.L., Chitheer A., Choi J.-Y.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cicuttini F.M., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Claro R.M., Collado-Mateo D., Cooper C., Coresh J., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Costa M., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Cross M., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T.T., Davey G., Davis A.C., Davitoiu D.V., De La Hoz F.P., De Leo D., De Neve J.-W., Degefa M.G., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Demoz G.T., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Des Jarlais D.C., Dessie G.A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dinberu M.T., Dirac M.A., Djalalinia S., Doan L., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Doyle K.E., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duken E.E., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Ebrahimi H., Ebrahimpour S., Echko M.M., Edvardsson D., Effiong A., Ehrlich J.R., El Bcheraoui C., El Sayed Zaki M., El-Khatib Z., Elkout H., Elyazar I.R.F., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Er B., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Fakhim H., Fallah Omrani V., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Farhadi F., Farid T.A., Farinha C.S.E., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Fentahun N., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes E., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa G.T., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Foigt N.A., Foreman K.J., Frank T.D., Fukumoto T., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gall S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gardner W.M., Gebre A.K., Gebremedhin A.T., Gebremichael T.G., Gelano T.F., Geleijnse J.M., Genova-Maleras R., Geramo Y.C.D., Gething P.W., Gezae K.E., Ghadiri K., Ghasemi Falavarjani K., Ghasemi-Kasman M., Ghimire M., Ghosh R., Ghoshal A.G., Giampaoli S., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginawi I.A., Giussani G., Gnedovskaya E.V., Goldberg E.M., Goli S., Gomez-Dantes H., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gorman T.M., Goulart A.C., Goulart B.N.G., Grada A., Grams M.E., Grosso G., Gugnani H.C., Guo Y., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gyawali B., Haagsma J.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hasan M., Hassankhani H., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hawley C.N., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., Hedayatizadeh-Omran A., Heibati B., Hendrie D., Henok A., Herteliu C., Heydarpour S., Hibstu D.T., Hoang H.T., Hoek H.W., Hoffman H.J., Hole M.K., Homaie Rad E., Hoogar P., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C.K., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C.T., Ileanu B., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam S., Islami F., Jacobsen K.H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson C.O., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalani R., Kanchan T., Karami M., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karema C., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Kasaeian A., Kassa D.H., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kazemi Karyani A., Keighobadi M.M., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khazaei M., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiirithio D.N., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim P., Kim Y.-E., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K.S., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G.A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kyu H.H., Lad D.P., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lami F.H., Lansingh V.C., Latifi A., Lau K.M.-M., Lazarus J.V., Leasher J.L., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Lewycka S., Li S., Li Y., Liao Y., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Lim S.S., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Low N., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lucchesi L.R., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Madotto F., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Maghavani D.P., Mahotra N.B., Mai H.T., Majdan M., 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Sayeed M.S., Bisanzio D., Blacker B.F., Blyth F.M., Bou-Orm I.R., Boufous S., Bourne R., Brady O.J., Brainin M., Brant L.C., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Briant P.S., Briggs A.M., Briko A.N., Britton G., Brugha T., Buchbinder R., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cano J., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K.M., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Chang A.R., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi P., Chiang P.P.-C., Chin K.L., Chitheer A., Choi J.-Y.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cicuttini F.M., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Claro R.M., Collado-Mateo D., Cooper C., Coresh J., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Costa M., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Cross M., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T.T., Davey G., Davis A.C., Davitoiu D.V., De La Hoz F.P., De Leo D., De Neve J.-W., Degefa M.G., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Demoz G.T., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Des Jarlais D.C., Dessie G.A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dinberu M.T., Dirac M.A., Djalalinia S., Doan L., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Doyle K.E., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duken E.E., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Ebrahimi H., Ebrahimpour S., Echko M.M., Edvardsson D., Effiong A., Ehrlich J.R., El Bcheraoui C., El Sayed Zaki M., El-Khatib Z., Elkout H., Elyazar I.R.F., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Er B., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Fakhim H., Fallah Omrani V., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Farhadi F., Farid T.A., Farinha C.S.E., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Fentahun N., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes E., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa G.T., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Foigt N.A., Foreman K.J., Frank T.D., Fukumoto T., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gall S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gardner W.M., Gebre A.K., Gebremedhin A.T., Gebremichael T.G., Gelano T.F., Geleijnse J.M., Genova-Maleras R., Geramo Y.C.D., Gething P.W., Gezae K.E., Ghadiri K., Ghasemi Falavarjani K., Ghasemi-Kasman M., Ghimire M., Ghosh R., Ghoshal A.G., Giampaoli S., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginawi I.A., Giussani G., Gnedovskaya E.V., Goldberg E.M., Goli S., Gomez-Dantes H., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gorman T.M., Goulart A.C., Goulart B.N.G., Grada A., Grams M.E., Grosso G., Gugnani H.C., Guo Y., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gyawali B., Haagsma J.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hasan M., Hassankhani H., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hawley C.N., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., Hedayatizadeh-Omran A., Heibati B., Hendrie D., Henok A., Herteliu C., Heydarpour S., Hibstu D.T., Hoang H.T., Hoek H.W., Hoffman H.J., Hole M.K., Homaie Rad E., Hoogar P., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C.K., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C.T., Ileanu B., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam S., Islami F., Jacobsen K.H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson C.O., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalani R., Kanchan T., Karami M., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karema C., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Kasaeian A., Kassa D.H., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kazemi Karyani A., Keighobadi M.M., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khazaei M., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiirithio D.N., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim P., Kim Y.-E., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K.S., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G.A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kyu H.H., Lad D.P., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lami F.H., Lansingh V.C., Latifi A., Lau K.M.-M., Lazarus J.V., Leasher J.L., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Lewycka S., Li S., Li Y., Liao Y., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Lim S.S., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Low N., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lucchesi L.R., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Madotto F., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Maghavani D.P., Mahotra N.B., Mai H.T., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda A.-L., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mansournia M.A., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Marzan M.B., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mathur M.R., Matsushita K., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Melese A., Melku M., Meltzer M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezerji N.M.G., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Millear A.I., Miller T.R., Miltz B., Mini G.K., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Mitchell P.B., Mitiku H., Moazen B., Mohajer B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed M.A., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Moitra M., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Moodley Y., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Morgado-Da-Costa J., Morrison S.D., Moschos M.M., Mousavi S.M., Mruts K.B., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Muhammed O.S., Mukhopadhyay S., Muller K., Mumford J.E., Murhekar M., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Nabhan A.F., Nagata C., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nahvijou A., Naik G., Naik N., Najafi F., Naldi L., Nam H.S., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nascimento B.R., Natarajan G., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane S., Newton C.R.J., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen A.Q., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen H.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen M., Nguyen N.B., Nguyen S.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nixon M.R., Nolutshungu N., Nomura S., Norheim O.F., Noroozi M., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J., Nouri H.R., Nourollahpour Shiadeh M., Nowroozi M.R., Nsoesie E.O., Nyasulu P.S., Odell C.M., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Ong K.L., Ong S.K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Otstavnov S.S., overland S., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pacella R., Pakpour A.H., Pana A., Panda-Jonas S., Parisi A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Patel S., Pati S., Patil S.T., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paturi V.R., Paulson K.R., Pearce N., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Pham H.Q., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Piradov M.A., Pirsaheb M., Pishgar F., Plana-Ripoll O., Plass D., Polinder S., Popova S., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Poustchi H., Prabhakaran D., Prakash S., Prakash V., Purcell C.A., Purwar M.B., Qorbani M., Quistberg D.A., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Ram U., Ranjan P., Ranta A., Rao P.C., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reddy K.S., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Rezai M.S., Ribeiro A.L.P., Robinson S.R., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Sachdev P.S., Sadat N., Saddik B., Sadeghi E., Saeedi Moghaddam S., Safari H., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi H.S., Salam N., Salama J.S., Salamati P., Saleem K., Saleem Z., Salimi Y., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Salz I., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Sang Y., Santomauro D.F., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sao Jose B.P., Sardana M., Sarker A.R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Sarvi S., Sathian B., Satpathy M., Sawant A.R., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Schaeffner E., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Scott J.G., Sekerija M., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E., Seyedmousavi S., Shabaninejad H., Shafieesabet A., Shahbazi M., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamsi M., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi H., Sharafi K., Sharif M., Sharif-Alhoseini M., Sharma M., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shiue I., Shokraneh F., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Si S., Siabani S., Siddiqi T.J., Sigfusdottir I.D., Sigurvinsdottir R., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singam N.S.V., Singh J.A., Singh N.P., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L.N., Sliwa K., Smith D.L., Smith M., Soares Filho A.M., Sobaih B.H., Sobhani S., Sobngwi E., Soneji S.S., Soofi M., Soosaraei M., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Soyiri I.N., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steiner T.J., Stokes M.A., Stovner L.J., Subart M.L., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Sutradhar I., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tadesse B.T., Tandon N., Tassew S.G., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Taylor H.R., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekalign T.G., Tekelemedhin S.W., Tekle M.G., Temesgen H., Temsah M.-H., Temsah O., Terkawi A.S., and Teweldemedhin M.
- Abstract
Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Method(s): We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we
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- 2018
22. Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years for 32 cancer groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration
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Fitzmaurice, C., Pourmalek, F., Lunevicius, R., Campos-Nonato, I., Khang, Y.-H., Jee, S.H., Rana, S.M., Sufiyan, M.B., Kedir, M.S., Khader, Y.S., Marcenes, W., Meles, K.G., Bensenor, I., Ding, E., Cowie, B., Leigh, J., Zaidi, Z., Melaku, Y.A., Sanabria, J.R., Oladimeji, K.E., James, S., Al-Raddadi, R., Kutz, M., Sartorius, B., Saleem, H.B., Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration, Das Neves, J., Dicker, D.J., Husseini, A., Schwartz, S.M., Søreide, K., Ghiwot, T.T., Nagel, G., Nolte, S., Hailu, A., Pa, M., Wang, H., Kasaeian, A., Alabed, S., Zenebe, Z.M., Fernandes, J., Nand, D., Javanbakht, M., Weiderpass, E., Plass, D., Fleming, T., Oren, E., Sepanlou, S.G., Thakur, J.S., Linn, S., Yonemoto, N., Hay, R.J., Bedi, N., Ukwaja, K.N., Chimed-Orchir, O., Brenner, H., Sandar, L., Dhillon, P., Mohammadi, A., Shiue, I., Zeeb, H., Allen, C., Sykes, B.L., Tadese, F., Ahmed, M.B., Ali, R., Alem, G., Malta, D.C., Lan, Q., Westerman, R., Boneya, D., Wagner, J.A., Amoako, Y., Marquez, N., Larson, H.J., Khubchandani, J., Tessema, G.A., Alemayohu, M.A., Ekwueme, D., Chiang, P., Vollset, S.E., Asayesh, H., Fischer, F., Shore, H.R., Naghavi, M., Hancock, J., Catalá-López, F., Stroumpoulis, K., Barber, R.M., Satpathy, M., Zaki, M.E.S., Atnafu, N., Farvid, M., Shaikh, M.A., Zoeckler, L., Liang, X., Yebyo, H.G., Lim, S.S., Chudi Uzochukwu, B.S., Dharmaratne, S., Castañeda-Orjuela, C., Takahashi, K., Sawhney, M., Abd-Allah, F., Shackelford, K.A., Malekzadeh, R., Steiner, C., Driscoll, T., Hosgood, H.D., Dandona, R., Lopez, A.D., Shrime, M.G., Yu, C., Aldhahri, S.F., Sun, J., Qorbani, M., Vlassov, V.V., Chibueze, C., Huynh, C., Horino, M., Yimam, H.H., Stanaway, J., Ogbo, F.A., Dandona, L., El Razek, H.M.A., Huybrechts, I., Pereira, D.M., Younis, M.Z., Pinho, C., Damtew, S., Salomon, J.A., Bernabé, E., Berhane, A., Forouzanfar, M.H., Awasthi, A., Gopalani, S., Murray, C.J.L., Jakovljevic, M., She, J., Horita, N., MacIntyre, M.F., Stathopoulou, V., Barregard, L., Betsu, B., Dey, S., Bhutta, Z.A., Endries, A.Y., Shibuya, K., Tran, B.X., Mohammad, K.A., Barac, A., Miller, T.R., Radfar, A., Gebru, A., Islami, F., Chitheer, A., Kumar, G.A., Rahman, M., Markos, D., Park, E.-K., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Mohammed, S., Soneji, S., Mendoza, W., Amare, A., Tedla, B.A., Wubshet Terefe, M., Farzadfar, F., Vos, T., Artaman, A., So, S., Mengiste, D.T., Le Nguyen, Q., Choi, J.-Y., Binagwaho, A., Rafay, A., Mokdad, A.H., Kim, D., Marczak, L., Johnson, C.O., Alam, N.K., Meretoja, T.J., Inoue, M., Hunter-Merrill, R., Jonas, J.B., and Tabarés-Seisdedos, R.
- Abstract
IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.
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- 2017
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23. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
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Shetty B.P., Tekle D.Y., Temam Shifa G., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tesema C.L., Tesssema B., Theis A., Thomas N., Thompson A.H., Thomson A.J., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tortajada M., Tran B.X., Truelsen T., Trujillo U., Tsilimparis N., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Varakin Y.Y., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vishnu A., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Waid J.L., Wakayo T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Werdecker A., Wesana J., Wijeratne T., Wilkinson J.D., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Workicho A., Workie S.B., Xavier D., Xu G., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yalew A.Z., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zeeb H., Zenebe Z.M., Zerfu T.A., Zhang A.L., Zhang X., Zodpey S., Zuhlke L.J., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang H., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abera S.F., Abraha H.N., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Adedeji I.A., Adedoyin R.A., Adetifa I.M.O., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Aggarwal R., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akanda A.S., Akinyemiju T.F., Akseer N., Al-Eyadhy A., Al Lami F.H., Alabed S., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alasfoor D., Aldridge R.W., Alene K.A., Alhabib S., Ali R., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkaabi J.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allam S.D., Allebeck P., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Martin E.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Ameh E.A., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Ansari H., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Asghar R.J., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Babalola T.K., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Balalla S., Barac A., Barber R.M., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Benson J., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bisanzio D., Bizuayehu H.M., Bjerregaard P., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Boufous S., Bourne R.R.A., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Brugha T.S., Bukhman G., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B.R., Burch M., Butt Z.A., Cahill L.E., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Campos-Nonato I.R., Car J., Car M., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F.F., Castro R.E., Catala-Lopez F., Chen H., Chiang P.P.-C., Chibalabala M., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Cohen A.J., Colquhoun S.M., Coresh J., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Das Neves J., Davey G., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., De Leo D., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Deribew A., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dherani M.K., Diaz-Torne C., Ding E.L., Dixit P., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Doku D.T., Donnelly C.A., Dos Santos K.P.B., Douwes-Schultz D., Driscoll T.R., Duan L., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Dwivedi L.K., Ebrahimi H., El Bcheraoui C., Ellingsen C.L., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshetie S., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Fanuel F.B.B., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frank T., Franklin R.C., Fraser M., Friedman J., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gakidou E., Gambashidze K., Gamkrelidze A., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebrekidan K.G., Gebremichael M.W., Gelaye A.A., Geleijnse J.M., Gemechu B.L., Gemechu K.S., Genova-Maleras R., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Girma B.W., Giussani G., Goenka S., Gomez B., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Goulart A.C., Graetz N., Gugnani H.C., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Haagsma J.A., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hakuzimana A., Halasa Y.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hambisa M.T., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Hancock J., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., He F., Heredia-Pi I.B., Herteliu C., Hilawe E.H., Hoek H.W., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang H., Huang J.J., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ileanu B.V., Inoue M., Irenso A.A., Irvine C.M.S., Islam N., Jacobsen K.H., Jaenisch T., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jensen P.N., Jha V., Jin Y., John D., John O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kan H., Karch A., Karema C.K., Karimi S.M., Karthikeyan G., Kasaeian A., Kassaw N.A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Kazanjan K., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemp A.H., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kereselidze M., Kesavachandran C.N., Ketema E.B., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khang Y.-H., Khera S., Khoja A.T.A., Khosravi M.H., Kibret G.D., Kieling C., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim P., Kim S., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kishawi S., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kokubo Y., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kuipers E.J., Kulikoff X.R., Kulkarni V.S., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kumsa F.A., Kutz M., Lachat C., Lagat A.K., Lager A.C.J., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lambert N., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larson H.J., Larsson A., Laryea D.O., Lavados P.M., Laxmaiah A., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liao Y., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Linn S., Lipshultz S.E., Liu S., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lorch S.A., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Machado I.E., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahdavi M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mantovani L.G., Manyazewal T., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Marks G.B., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Massano J., Maulik P.K., Mayosi B.M., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGarvey S.T., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehta K.M., Meier T., Mekonnen T.C., Meles K.G., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mengistu D.T., Menon G.R., Menota B.G., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Mikesell J., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mohanty S.K., Mokdad A.H., Molla Assaye A., Mollenkopf S.K., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montico M., Mooney M.D., Moore A.R., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Mori R., Morrison S.D., Mruts K.B., Mueller U.O., Mullany E., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Murthy S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Nagata C., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naidoo K.S., Nanda L., Nangia V., Nascimento B.R., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nisar M.I., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., Nyakarahuka L., Obermeyer C.M., O'Donnell M.J., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osgood-Zimmerman A., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pacella R.E., Pakhale S., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Park E.-K., Parsaeian M., Patel T., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Pereira D.M., Perez-Padilla R., Perez-Ruiz F., Perico N., Pervaiz A., Pesudovs K., Peterson C.B., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Piel F.B., Pigott D.M., Pishgar F., Plass D., Polinder S., Popova S., Postma M.J., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prasad N., Purwar M., Qorbani M., Rabiee R.H.S., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.H.U., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rao P.V., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Rego M.A.S., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Rezai M.S., Ribeiro A.L., Rokni M.B., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Sabde Y.D., Sachdev P.S., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Salama J., Salamati P., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M.I., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Seid A.M., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Islam S.M.S., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shen J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shiue I., Shrime M.G., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silberberg D.H., Silpakit N., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Sindi S., Singh J.A., Singh P.K., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Sligar A., Smith D.L., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soneji S., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Stockl H., Stokes M.A., Strong M., Sufiyan M.B., Suliankatchi R.A., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tadese F., Tandon N., Tanne D., Tarajia M., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekelab T., Shetty B.P., Tekle D.Y., Temam Shifa G., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tesema C.L., Tesssema B., Theis A., Thomas N., Thompson A.H., Thomson A.J., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tortajada M., Tran B.X., Truelsen T., Trujillo U., Tsilimparis N., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Varakin Y.Y., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vishnu A., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Waid J.L., Wakayo T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Werdecker A., Wesana J., Wijeratne T., Wilkinson J.D., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Workicho A., Workie S.B., Xavier D., Xu G., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yalew A.Z., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zeeb H., Zenebe Z.M., Zerfu T.A., Zhang A.L., Zhang X., Zodpey S., Zuhlke L.J., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang H., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abera S.F., Abraha H.N., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Adedeji I.A., Adedoyin R.A., Adetifa I.M.O., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Aggarwal R., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akanda A.S., Akinyemiju T.F., Akseer N., Al-Eyadhy A., Al Lami F.H., Alabed S., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alasfoor D., Aldridge R.W., Alene K.A., Alhabib S., Ali R., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkaabi J.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allam S.D., Allebeck P., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Martin E.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Ameh E.A., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Ansari H., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Asghar R.J., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Babalola T.K., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Balalla S., Barac A., Barber R.M., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Benson J., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bisanzio D., Bizuayehu H.M., Bjerregaard P., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Boufous S., Bourne R.R.A., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Brugha T.S., Bukhman G., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B.R., Burch M., Butt Z.A., Cahill L.E., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Campos-Nonato I.R., Car J., Car M., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F.F., Castro R.E., Catala-Lopez F., Chen H., Chiang P.P.-C., Chibalabala M., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Choi J.-Y.J., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Cohen A.J., Colquhoun S.M., Coresh J., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Das Neves J., Davey G., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., De Leo D., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Deribew A., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dherani M.K., Diaz-Torne C., Ding E.L., Dixit P., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Doku D.T., Donnelly C.A., Dos Santos K.P.B., Douwes-Schultz D., Driscoll T.R., Duan L., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Dwivedi L.K., Ebrahimi H., El Bcheraoui C., Ellingsen C.L., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshetie S., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Fanuel F.B.B., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frank T., Franklin R.C., Fraser M., Friedman J., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gakidou E., Gambashidze K., Gamkrelidze A., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebrekidan K.G., Gebremichael M.W., Gelaye A.A., Geleijnse J.M., Gemechu B.L., Gemechu K.S., Genova-Maleras R., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Girma B.W., Giussani G., Goenka S., Gomez B., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Goulart A.C., Graetz N., Gugnani H.C., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Haagsma J.A., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hakuzimana A., Halasa Y.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hambisa M.T., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Hancock J., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., He F., Heredia-Pi I.B., Herteliu C., Hilawe E.H., Hoek H.W., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang H., Huang J.J., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ileanu B.V., Inoue M., Irenso A.A., Irvine C.M.S., Islam N., Jacobsen K.H., Jaenisch T., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jensen P.N., Jha V., Jin Y., John D., John O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kan H., Karch A., Karema C.K., Karimi S.M., Karthikeyan G., Kasaeian A., Kassaw N.A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Kazanjan K., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemp A.H., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kereselidze M., Kesavachandran C.N., Ketema E.B., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khang Y.-H., Khera S., Khoja A.T.A., Khosravi M.H., Kibret G.D., Kieling C., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim P., Kim S., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kishawi S., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kokubo Y., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kuipers E.J., Kulikoff X.R., Kulkarni V.S., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kumsa F.A., Kutz M., Lachat C., Lagat A.K., Lager A.C.J., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lambert N., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larson H.J., Larsson A., Laryea D.O., Lavados P.M., Laxmaiah A., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liao Y., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Linn S., Lipshultz S.E., Liu S., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lorch S.A., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Machado I.E., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahdavi M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mantovani L.G., Manyazewal T., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Marks G.B., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Massano J., Maulik P.K., Mayosi B.M., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGarvey S.T., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehta K.M., Meier T., Mekonnen T.C., Meles K.G., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mengistu D.T., Menon G.R., Menota B.G., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Mikesell J., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mohanty S.K., Mokdad A.H., Molla Assaye A., Mollenkopf S.K., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montico M., Mooney M.D., Moore A.R., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Mori R., Morrison S.D., Mruts K.B., Mueller U.O., Mullany E., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Murthy S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Nagata C., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naidoo K.S., Nanda L., Nangia V., Nascimento B.R., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nisar M.I., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., Nyakarahuka L., Obermeyer C.M., O'Donnell M.J., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osgood-Zimmerman A., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pacella R.E., Pakhale S., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Park E.-K., Parsaeian M., Patel T., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Pereira D.M., Perez-Padilla R., Perez-Ruiz F., Perico N., Pervaiz A., Pesudovs K., Peterson C.B., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Piel F.B., Pigott D.M., Pishgar F., Plass D., Polinder S., Popova S., Postma M.J., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prasad N., Purwar M., Qorbani M., Rabiee R.H.S., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.H.U., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rao P.V., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Rego M.A.S., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Rezai M.S., Ribeiro A.L., Rokni M.B., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Sabde Y.D., Sachdev P.S., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Salama J., Salamati P., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M.I., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Seid A.M., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Islam S.M.S., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shen J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shiue I., Shrime M.G., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silberberg D.H., Silpakit N., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Sindi S., Singh J.A., Singh P.K., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Sligar A., Smith D.L., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soneji S., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Stockl H., Stokes M.A., Strong M., Sufiyan M.B., Suliankatchi R.A., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tadese F., Tandon N., Tanne D., Tarajia M., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., and Tekelab T.
- Abstract
Background: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Method(s): We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, t
- Published
- 2017
24. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
- Author
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Kaul A., Bhutta Z.A., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Haro J.M., Harun K.M., Harvey J., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hay R.J., Hedayati M.T., Hendrie D., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Heydarpour P., Hoek H.W., Hofman H.J., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., James P., Jassal S.K., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jeemon P., Jensen P.N., Jha V., Jiang G., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Kar C., Karam N.E., Karch A., Karema C.K., Karimi S.M., Karimkhani C., Kasaeian A., Kassa G.M., Kassebaum N.J., Kassaw N.A., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim Y.J., Kim D., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G.A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kyu H.H., Lager A.C.J., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lambert N., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Leasher J.L., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Linn S., Liu A., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Maddison E.R., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahdavi M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., March L.M., Marczak L.B., Martinez-Raga J., Martins P.H.V., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Meier T., Meles K.G., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefn M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed S., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed M.S.K., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mori R., Morrison S.D., Moses M., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mruts K.B., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Mudoch M.E., Murthy S., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Nangia V., Nasher J.T., Natarajan G., Negasa D.E., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Newton C.R., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen G., Nguyen T.H., Nguyen M., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., Nyandwi A., Obermeyer C.M., O'Donnell M.J., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osborne R.H., Osgood-Zimmerman A., Osman M., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Pa M., Pacella R.E., Panda B.K., Pandian J.D., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Parry C.D., Parsaeian M., Patil S.T., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Paulson K., Pearce N., Pereira D.M., Perez K.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Peterson C.B., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Phipps G., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Piradov M.A., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Popova S., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Prasad N., Purcell C., Purwar M., Qorbani M., Rabiee R.H.S., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Rahman M.H.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rangaswamy T., Rankin Z., Rao P.V., Rao P.C., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikof S., Rezaei S., Ribeiro A.L., Roba H.S., Robinson S.R., Rojas-Rueda D., Rokni M.B., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Safdarian M., Safri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Sahraian M.A., Salama J., Saleh M.M., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D., Santos J.V., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schelonka K., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shariful Islam S.M., Sharma R., Sharma J., She J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shirude S., Shishani K., Shoman H., Siabani S., Sibai A.M., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silberberg D.H., Silva J.P., Silva D.A.S., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Singh O.P., Singh N.P., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Skirbekk V., Slepak E.L., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soljak M., Sorensen R.J.D., Sousa T.C.M., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Stovner L.J., Strub B., Subart M., Sufyan M.B., Abdulkader R.S., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Sylte D., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tafere G.R., Takala J.S., Tandon N., Tanne D., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Taylor H.R., Tegegne T.K., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekelab T., Temam Shifa G., Terkawi A.S., Tesfaye D.J., Tesssema B., Thakur J.S., Thamsuwan O., Theadom A.M., Theis A.M., Thomas K.E., Thomas N., Thompson R., Tobe-Gai R., Tobollik M., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Tortajada M., Touvier M., Traebert J., Tran B.X., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuzcu E.M., Tymeson H., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Veerman L.J., Venkatesh S., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Vijayakumar L., Violante F.S., Vishnu A., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Williams H.C., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Woolf A.D., Workicho A., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Ye P., Yihdego M.G., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E.S., Zegeye E.A., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang X., Zheng Y., Zhou M., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Zoeckler L., Zuhlke L.J., Murray C.J.L., Adedji I.A., Murdoch M.E., Bryane C.E.G., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Biadgilign S., Hay 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Cirillo M., Colombara D., Cooper L.T., Cooper C., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Cross M., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dalal K., Damasceno A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., De Leo D., De Steur H., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Deribew A., Das Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Dicker D., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Dos Santos K.P.B., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Ebel B.E., Echko M., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshetie S., Eshrati B., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Fanuel F.B.B., Farag T., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Feigl A.B., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Franklin R.C., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gakidou E., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Ghajar A., Gibney K.B., Gillum R.F., Ginawi I.A.M., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Goel K., Goenka S., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gosselin R.A., Gotay C.C., Goto A., Goulart A.C., Graetz N., Gugnani H.C., Gupta P.C., Gupta T., Gupta V., Gupta R., Gutierrez R.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hailu A.D., Kaul A., Bhutta Z.A., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Haro J.M., Harun K.M., Harvey J., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hay R.J., Hedayati M.T., Hendrie D., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Heydarpour P., Hoek H.W., Hofman H.J., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., James P., Jassal S.K., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jeemon P., Jensen P.N., Jha V., Jiang G., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Kar C., Karam N.E., Karch A., Karema C.K., Karimi S.M., Karimkhani C., Kasaeian A., Kassa G.M., Kassebaum N.J., Kassaw N.A., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim Y.J., Kim D., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G.A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kyu H.H., Lager A.C.J., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lambert N., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Leasher J.L., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Linn S., Liu A., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Maddison E.R., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahdavi M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., March L.M., Marczak L.B., Martinez-Raga J., Martins P.H.V., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehata S., Meier T., Meles K.G., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mengistie M.A., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefn M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed S., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed M.S.K., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mori R., Morrison S.D., Moses M., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mruts K.B., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Mudoch M.E., Murthy S., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Nangia V., Nasher J.T., Natarajan G., Negasa D.E., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Newton C.R., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen G., Nguyen T.H., Nguyen M., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., Nyandwi A., Obermeyer C.M., O'Donnell M.J., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osborne R.H., Osgood-Zimmerman A., Osman M., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Pa M., Pacella R.E., Panda B.K., Pandian J.D., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Parry C.D., Parsaeian M., Patil S.T., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Paulson K., Pearce N., Pereira D.M., Perez K.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Peterson C.B., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Phipps G., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Piradov M.A., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Popova S., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Prasad N., Purcell C., Purwar M., Qorbani M., Rabiee R.H.S., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Rahman M.H.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rangaswamy T., Rankin Z., Rao P.V., Rao P.C., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikof S., Rezaei S., Ribeiro A.L., Roba H.S., Robinson S.R., Rojas-Rueda D., Rokni M.B., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Safdarian M., Safri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Sahraian M.A., Salama J., Saleh M.M., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D., Santos J.V., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schelonka K., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shariful Islam S.M., Sharma R., Sharma J., She J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shirude S., Shishani K., Shoman H., Siabani S., Sibai A.M., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silberberg D.H., Silva J.P., Silva D.A.S., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Singh O.P., Singh N.P., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Skirbekk V., Slepak E.L., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Soljak M., Sorensen R.J.D., Sousa T.C.M., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Stovner L.J., Strub B., Subart M., Sufyan M.B., Abdulkader R.S., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Sylte D., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tafere G.R., Takala J.S., Tandon N., Tanne D., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Taylor H.R., Tegegne T.K., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekelab T., Temam Shifa G., Terkawi A.S., Tesfaye D.J., Tesssema B., Thakur J.S., Thamsuwan O., Theadom A.M., Theis A.M., Thomas K.E., Thomas N., Thompson R., Tobe-Gai R., Tobollik M., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Tortajada M., Touvier M., Traebert J., Tran B.X., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuzcu E.M., Tymeson H., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Veerman L.J., Venkatesh S., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Vijayakumar L., Violante F.S., Vishnu A., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Williams H.C., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Woolf A.D., Workicho A., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Ye P., Yihdego M.G., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E.S., Zegeye E.A., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang X., Zheng Y., Zhou M., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Zoeckler L., Zuhlke L.J., Murray C.J.L., Adedji I.A., Murdoch M.E., Bryane C.E.G., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Biadgilign S., Hay S.I., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abebo T.A., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Ackerman I.N., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afshin A., Aggarwal R., Agrawal S., Agrawal A., Kiadaliri A.A., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemiju T.F., Akseer N., Al Lami F.H., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Ali R., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkaabi J.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Maskari F., Almazroa M.A., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alsowaidi S., Althouse B.M., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asgedom S.W., Atey T.M., Atnafu N.T., Avila-Burgos L., Arthur Avokpaho E.F.G., Awasthi A., Awasthi S., Quintanilla B.P.A., Azarpazhooh M.R., Azzopardi P., Babalola T.K., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battista R., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Benson J., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bienhof K., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bisanzio D., Bizuayehu H.M., Blyth F.M., Boneya D.J., Bose D., Bou-Orm I.R., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brayne C.E.G., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Briant P.S., Britton G., Brugha T.S., Buchbinder R., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Campos-Nonato I.R., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Casey D., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Castle C.D., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chaturvedi P., Chen H., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Chowdhury R., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Colombara D., Cooper L.T., Cooper C., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Cross M., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dalal K., Damasceno A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., De Leo D., De Steur H., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Deribew A., Das Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Dicker D., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Dos Santos K.P.B., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Ebel B.E., Echko M., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshetie S., Eshrati B., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Fanuel F.B.B., Farag T., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Feigl A.B., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Franklin R.C., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gakidou E., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Ghajar A., Gibney K.B., Gillum R.F., Ginawi I.A.M., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Goel K., Goenka S., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gosselin R.A., Gotay C.C., Goto A., Goulart A.C., Graetz N., Gugnani H.C., Gupta P.C., Gupta T., Gupta V., Gupta R., Gutierrez R.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., and Hailu A.D.
- Abstract
Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Method(s): We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Finding(s): The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75.2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71.9-78.6) for females and 72.0 years (68.8-75.1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45.6 years [42.0-49.5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41.5 years [39.0-44.0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6.24 years (5.97-6.48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6.04 years (5.74-6.27) for males and 6.49 years (6.08-6.77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1.78 years (1.61-1.93) for m
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- 2017
25. Global cardiovascular and renal outcomes of reduced GFR.
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Gansevoort R.T., Al-Radaddi R., Remuzzi G., Courville K., Dandona L., Dandona R., Estep K., Fernandes J., Fischer F., Fox C., Polkinghorne K., Gona P.N., Gutierrez O.M., Hamidi S., Hanson S.W., Himmelfarb J., Jassal S.K., Jee S.H., Jha V., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Kengne A.P., Khader Y., Khang Y.-H., Kim Y.J., Klein B., Klein R., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Lee K., Levey A.S., Li Y., Lotufo P., El Razek H.M.A., Mendoza W., Metoki H., Mok Y., Muraki I., Muntner P.M., Noda H., Ohkubo T., Ortiz A., Perico N., Roth G., Rothenbacher D., Satoh M., Saum K.-U., Sawhney M., Schottker B., Shankar A., Shlipak M., Silva D.A.S., Toyoshima H., Ukwaja K., Umesawa M., Vollset S.E., Warnock D.G., Werdecker A., Yamagishi K., Yano Y., Yonemoto N., Zaki M.E.S., Naghavi M., Forouzanfar M.H., Murray C.J.L., Coresh J., Vos T., Thomas B., Matsushita K., Abate K.H., Al-Aly Z., Arnlov J., Asayama K., Atkins R., Badawi A., Ballew S.H., Banerjee A., Barregard L., Barrett-Connor E., Basu S., Bello A.K., Bensenor I., Bergstrom J., Bikbov B., Blosser C., Brenner H., Carrero J.-J., Chadban S., Cirillo M., Cortinovis M., Gansevoort R.T., Al-Radaddi R., Remuzzi G., Courville K., Dandona L., Dandona R., Estep K., Fernandes J., Fischer F., Fox C., Polkinghorne K., Gona P.N., Gutierrez O.M., Hamidi S., Hanson S.W., Himmelfarb J., Jassal S.K., Jee S.H., Jha V., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Kengne A.P., Khader Y., Khang Y.-H., Kim Y.J., Klein B., Klein R., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Lee K., Levey A.S., Li Y., Lotufo P., El Razek H.M.A., Mendoza W., Metoki H., Mok Y., Muraki I., Muntner P.M., Noda H., Ohkubo T., Ortiz A., Perico N., Roth G., Rothenbacher D., Satoh M., Saum K.-U., Sawhney M., Schottker B., Shankar A., Shlipak M., Silva D.A.S., Toyoshima H., Ukwaja K., Umesawa M., Vollset S.E., Warnock D.G., Werdecker A., Yamagishi K., Yano Y., Yonemoto N., Zaki M.E.S., Naghavi M., Forouzanfar M.H., Murray C.J.L., Coresh J., Vos T., Thomas B., Matsushita K., Abate K.H., Al-Aly Z., Arnlov J., Asayama K., Atkins R., Badawi A., Ballew S.H., Banerjee A., Barregard L., Barrett-Connor E., Basu S., Bello A.K., Bensenor I., Bergstrom J., Bikbov B., Blosser C., Brenner H., Carrero J.-J., Chadban S., Cirillo M., and Cortinovis M.
- Abstract
The burden of premature death and health loss from ESRD is well described. Less is known regarding the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to reduced GFR. We estimated the prevalence of reduced GFR categories 3, 4, and 5 (not on RRT) for 188 countries at six time points from1990 to 2013. Relative risks of cardiovascular outcomes by three categories of reducedGFRwere calculated by pooled randomeffects meta-analysis. Results are presented as deaths for outcomes of cardiovascular disease and ESRD and as disability-adjusted life years for outcomes of cardiovascular disease,GFR categories 3, 4, and 5, and ESRD. In 2013, reduced GFR was associated with 4% of deaths worldwide, or 2.2 million deaths (95%uncertainty interval [95%UI], 2.0 to 2.4million).More than half of these attributable deathswere cardiovascular deaths (1.2million; 95%UI, 1.1 to 1.4million), whereas 0.96million (95%UI, 0.81 to 1.0 million) were ESRD-related deaths. Compared with metabolic risk factors, reduced GFR ranked below high systolic BP, high body mass index, and high fasting plasma glucose, and similarly with high total cholesterol as a risk factor for disability-adjusted life years in both developed and developing world regions. In conclusion, by 2013, cardiovascular deaths attributed to reduced GFR outnumbered ESRD deaths throughout the world. Studies are needed to evaluate the benefit of early detection of CKD and treatment to decrease these deaths.Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.
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- 2017
26. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. []
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Larsson A., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atnafu N.T., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ba Saleem H.O., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Banerjee A., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barber R.M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battista B., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Benson J., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgilign S., Bienhoff K., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bisanzio D., Bizuayehu H.M., Boneya D.J., Boufous S., Bourne R.R.A., Brazinova A., Brugha T.S., Buchbinder R., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B.R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Car M., Carabin H., Carapetis J.R., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Casey D.C., Caso V., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castle C.D., Catala-Lopez F., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chen H., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Colombara D., Cooper C., Cortesi P.A., Criqui M.H., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dalal K., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., De Leo D., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Dicker D., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dorsey E.R., Dos Santos K.P.B., Douwes-Schultz D., Doyle K.E., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., El-Khatib Z.Z., Ellerstrand J., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Fanuel F.B.B., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Flor L.S., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Franklin R.C., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gakidou E., Ganji M., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Ghajar A., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Ginawi I.A.M., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Gold A.L., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goto A., Goulart A.C., Griswold M., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hailu A.D., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Haro J.M., Harvey J., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Heydarpour P., Hoek H.W., Hoffman H.J., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang H., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jassal S.K., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jeemon P., Jensen P.N., Jha V., Jiang G., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Kan H., Karam N.E., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassa G.M., Kassaw N.A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim P., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krishnaswami S., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kumar S., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lambert N., Lan Q., Lavados P.M., Leasher J.L., Lee J.-T., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Li Kappe D., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Linn S., Liu A., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., London S.J., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Low N., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Macarayan E.R.K., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mahdavi M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mantilla A., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., McNellan C., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mekonnen T.C., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistie M.A., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohanty S.K., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Hernandez J.M., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Mori R., Morozoff C., Morrison S.D., Moses M., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mruts K.B., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Murdoch M.E., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Naldi L., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negasa D.E., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Newton C.R., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nolte S., Nong V.M., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., O'Donnell M.J., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osgood-Zimmerman A., Osman M., Owolabi M.O., Pa M., Pacella R.E., Pana A., Panda B.K., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Parry C.D., Parsaeian M., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paulson K., Pearce N., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Peterson C.B., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Popova S., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Prasad N., Prasad N.M., Purcell C., Qorbani M., Quansah R., Rabiee R.H.S., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.H.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rankin Z., Rao P.V., Rao P.C., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Ribeiro A.L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Setegn T., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shariful Islam S.M., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shi P., Shields C., Shigematsu M., Shinohara Y., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shirude S., Shishani K., Shrime M.G., Sibai A.M., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh N.P., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Skirbekk V., Slepak E.L., Sligar A., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Sorensen R.J.D., Sousa T.C.M., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Stein M.B., Steiner C., Steiner T.J., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Stovner L.J., Strub B., Subart M., Sufiyan M.B., Suliankatchi Abdulkader R., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Taffere G.R., Takala J.S., Tandon N., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Taylor H.R., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekelab T., Temam Shifa G., Terkawi A.S., Tesfaye D.J., Tesssema B., Thamsuwan O., Thomas K.E., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Tollanes M.C., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Tortajada M., Touvier M., Tran B.X., Tripathi S., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Venkatesh S., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wang Y.-P., Weaver M., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Woolf A.D., Workicho A., Wulf Hanson S., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E.S., Zegeye E.A., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Zuhlke L.J., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Vos T., Abajobir A.A., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abate K.H., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abebo T.A., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Ackerman I.N., Adamu A.A., Adetokunboh O., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal S.K., Aggarwal R., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al Lami F.H., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Ali R., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Maskari F., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alsowaidi S., Altirkawi K.A., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Larsson A., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Assadi R., Atey T.M., Atnafu N.T., Atre S.R., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ba Saleem H.O., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Banerjee A., Bannick M.S., Barac A., Barber R.M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Battista B., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Benson J., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Bhatt S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgilign S., Bienhoff K., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Bisanzio D., Bizuayehu H.M., Boneya D.J., Boufous S., Bourne R.R.A., Brazinova A., Brugha T.S., Buchbinder R., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B.R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Car M., Carabin H., Carapetis J.R., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Casey D.C., Caso V., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castle C.D., Catala-Lopez F., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chen H., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Colombara D., Cooper C., Cortesi P.A., Criqui M.H., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dalal K., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., De Leo D., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Dicker D., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dorsey E.R., Dos Santos K.P.B., Douwes-Schultz D., Doyle K.E., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., El-Khatib Z.Z., Ellerstrand J., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Fanuel F.B.B., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Flor L.S., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Franklin R.C., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gakidou E., Ganji M., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Ghajar A., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Ginawi I.A.M., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Gold A.L., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goto A., Goulart A.C., Griswold M., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hailu A.D., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Haro J.M., Harvey J., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Heydarpour P., Hoek H.W., Hoffman H.J., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang H., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C., Irvine C.M.S., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jassal S.K., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jeemon P., Jensen P.N., Jha V., Jiang G., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Kan H., Karam N.E., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassa G.M., Kassaw N.A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim P., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krishnaswami S., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kumar S., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lambert N., Lan Q., Lavados P.M., Leasher J.L., Lee J.-T., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Li Kappe D., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Linn S., Liu A., Liu P.Y., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., London S.J., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Low N., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Macarayan E.R.K., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mahdavi M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mantilla A., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Mathur M.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., McKee M., McNellan C., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mekonnen T.C., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistie M.A., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mitchell P.B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohanty S.K., Mokdad A.H., Mollenkopf S.K., Monasta L., Hernandez J.M., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Mori R., Morozoff C., Morrison S.D., Moses M., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mruts K.B., Mueller U.O., Muller K., Murdoch M.E., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Naidoo K.S., Naldi L., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negasa D.E., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Newton C.R., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nolte S., Nong V.M., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., O'Donnell M.J., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osgood-Zimmerman A., Osman M., Owolabi M.O., Pa M., Pacella R.E., Pana A., Panda B.K., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Parry C.D., Parsaeian M., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paulson K., Pearce N., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Peterson C.B., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pinho C., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Popova S., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Prasad N., Prasad N.M., Purcell C., Qorbani M., Quansah R., Rabiee R.H.S., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.H.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Ranabhat C.L., Rankin Z., Rao P.V., Rao P.C., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Ribeiro A.L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Saadat S., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Setegn T., Shackelford K.A., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shariful Islam S.M., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shi P., Shields C., Shigematsu M., Shinohara Y., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shirude S., Shishani K., Shrime M.G., Sibai A.M., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh N.P., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Skirbekk V., Slepak E.L., Sligar A., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Sorensen R.J.D., Sousa T.C.M., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Stein M.B., Steiner C., Steiner T.J., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Stovner L.J., Strub B., Subart M., Sufiyan M.B., Suliankatchi Abdulkader R., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Taffere G.R., Takala J.S., Tandon N., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Taylor H.R., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekelab T., Temam Shifa G., Terkawi A.S., Tesfaye D.J., Tesssema B., Thamsuwan O., Thomas K.E., Tiruye T.Y., Tobe-Gai R., Tollanes M.C., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Tortajada M., Touvier M., Tran B.X., Tripathi S., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Venkatesh S., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wang Y.-P., Weaver M., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Woolf A.D., Workicho A., Wulf Hanson S., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Ye P., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E.S., Zegeye E.A., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Zuhlke L.J., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Thrift A.G., Vos T., Abajobir A.A., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abate K.H., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abebo T.A., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Ackerman I.N., Adamu A.A., Adetokunboh O., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal S.K., Aggarwal R., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al Lami F.H., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Ali R., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Maskari F., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alsowaidi S., Altirkawi K.A., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., and Anwari P.
- Abstract
Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57.6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40.8-75.9 million [7.2%, 6.0-8.3]), 45.1 million (29.0-62.8 million [5.6%, 4.0-7.2]), 36.3 million (25.3-50.9 million [4.5%, 3.8-5.3]), 34.7 million (23.0-49.6 million [4.3%, 3.5-5.2]), and 34.1 million (23.5-46.0 million [4.2%, 3.2-5.3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2.7% (95% UI 2.3-3.1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-c
- Published
- 2017
27. Global, regional, and national age-sex specifc mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
- Author
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Kinfu Y., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Baune B.T., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Finegold S., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Frank T., Fraser M., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Gakidou E., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremichael D.Y., Geleijnse J.M., Genova-Maleras R., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Gillum R.F., Ginawi I.A.M., Giref A.Z., Giroud M., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Gold A.L., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gouda H.N., Goulart A.C., Griswold M., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Haagsma J.A., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hailu A.D., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hambisa M.T., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Hancock J., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hay S.I., He F., Hedayati M.T., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Herteliu C., Hoek H.W., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C., Ileanu B.V., Irenso A.A., Irvine C.M.S., Jurisson M., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jeemon P., Jha V., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Karch A., Karimi S.M., Karimkhani C., Kasaeian A., Kassaw N.A., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khoja A.T.A., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kievlan D., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Defo B.K., Kulikof X.R., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kutz M., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lambert T.L.N., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Kappe D.L., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Liu A., Liu P.Y., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Maddison E.R., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Manguerra H., Manyazewal T., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Markos D., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., Mehata S., Meier T., Meles K.G., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mengesha M.M., Mengistu D.T., Menota B.G., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefn M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed S., Mokdad A.H., Mola G.L.D., Mollenkopf S.K., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Hernandez J.C.M., Montico M., Mooney M.D., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Morozof C., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mruts K.B., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Naheed A., Naldi L., Nangia V., Nascimento B.R., Nasher J.T., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nong V.M., Noubiap J.J.N., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Olagunju A.T., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osman M., Ota E., Mahesh P.A., Pacella R.E., Pakhale S., Pana A., Panda B.K., Jonas S., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Paulson K., Pereira D.M., Perez-Ruiz F., Perico N., Pervaiz A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Polinder S., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Purcell C., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rai R.K., Ranabhat C.L., Rankin Z., Rao P.C., Rath G.K., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Rezaei S., Rezai M.S., Rokni M.B., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Ruhago G.M., Rizwan S.A., Saadat S., Sachdev P.S., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Saf S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Salama J., Salamati P., Salomon J.A., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Milicevic M.M.S., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Shahraz S., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schulhofer-Wohl S., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shackelford K.A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Islam S.M.S., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Sheikhbahaei S., Shey M., Shi P., Shields C., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shirude S., Shiue I., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silpakit N., Silva J.P., Singh J.A., Skiadaresi E., Sligar A., Smith A., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Soneji S., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Strong M., Strub B., Subart M., Sufyan M.B., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Takahashi K., Takala J.S., Talongwa R.T., Tarawneh M.R., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tegegne T.K., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Thakur J.S., Thamsuwan O., Thankappan K.R., Thomas K.E., Thompson A.H., Thomson A.J., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Torre A., Tortajada M., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whetter B., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Workicho A., Xavier D., Xiao Q., Xu G., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yimam H.H., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zegeye E.A., Zenebe Z.M., Zerfu T.A., Zhang A.L., Zhang X., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Naghavi M., Abajobir A.A., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Adetokunboh O., Arnlov J., Afshin A., Agrawal A., Kiadaliri A.A., Ahmadi A., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Al-Eyadhy A., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alene K.A., Ali S.D., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkaabi J.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N., Andersen H.H., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Ansari H., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Atey T.M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Bejot Y., Babalola T.K., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barquera S., Bhatt S., Biadgilign S., Bienhof K., Bikbov B., Bisanzio D., Bourne R.R.A., Breitborde N.J.K., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B.R., Butt Z.A., Cardenas R., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Campuzano J.C., Car J., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Casey D.C., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Catala-Lopez F., Charlson F.J., Chibueze C.E., Chimed-Ochir O., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Cohen A.J., Colombara D., Cooper C., Cowie B.C., Criqui M.H., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Deribe K., Deribew A., Dey S., Dicker D., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Doku D.T., Douwes-Schultz D., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Echko M., El-Khatib Z.Z., Ellingsen C.L., Enayati A., Erskine H.E., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Ermakov S.P., Estep K., Sa Farinha C.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Kinfu Y., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Baune B.T., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Finegold S., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Frank T., Fraser M., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Gakidou E., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremichael D.Y., Geleijnse J.M., Genova-Maleras R., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Gillum R.F., Ginawi I.A.M., Giref A.Z., Giroud M., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Gold A.L., Goldberg E.M., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gouda H.N., Goulart A.C., Griswold M., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Haagsma J.A., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hailu A.D., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hambisa M.T., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Hancock J., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hay S.I., He F., Hedayati M.T., Henry N.J., Heredia-Pi I.B., Herteliu C., Hoek H.W., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Huynh C., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C., Ileanu B.V., Irenso A.A., Irvine C.M.S., Jurisson M., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jeemon P., Jha V., John D., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Karch A., Karimi S.M., Karimkhani C., Kasaeian A., Kassaw N.A., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khoja A.T.A., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kievlan D., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Defo B.K., Kulikof X.R., Kumar G.A., Kumar P., Kutz M., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lambert T.L.N., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Kappe D.L., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim S.S., Liu A., Liu P.Y., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Maddison E.R., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Manguerra H., Manyazewal T., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Markos D., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., McAlinden C., McGaughey M., McGrath J.J., Mehata S., Meier T., Meles K.G., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mengesha M.M., Mengistu D.T., Menota B.G., Mensah G.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefn M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohammed S., Mokdad A.H., Mola G.L.D., Mollenkopf S.K., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Hernandez J.C.M., Montico M., Mooney M.D., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Morozof C., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mruts K.B., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Naheed A., Naldi L., Nangia V., Nascimento B.R., Nasher J.T., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nong V.M., Noubiap J.J.N., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Olagunju A.T., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Osman M., Ota E., Mahesh P.A., Pacella R.E., Pakhale S., Pana A., Panda B.K., Jonas S., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Paulson K., Pereira D.M., Perez-Ruiz F., Perico N., Pervaiz A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Polinder S., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Purcell C., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rai R.K., Ranabhat C.L., Rankin Z., Rao P.C., Rath G.K., Rawaf S., Ray S.E., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Rezaei S., Rezai M.S., Rokni M.B., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Ruhago G.M., Rizwan S.A., Saadat S., Sachdev P.S., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Saf S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahathevan R., Salama J., Salamati P., Salomon J.A., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Milicevic M.M.S., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Shahraz S., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schulhofer-Wohl S., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shackelford K.A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Islam S.M.S., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Sheikhbahaei S., Shey M., Shi P., Shields C., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shirude S., Shiue I., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silpakit N., Silva J.P., Singh J.A., Skiadaresi E., Sligar A., Smith A., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Soneji S., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stathopoulou V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Strong M., Strub B., Subart M., Sufyan M.B., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Takahashi K., Takala J.S., Talongwa R.T., Tarawneh M.R., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tegegne T.K., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Thakur J.S., Thamsuwan O., Thankappan K.R., Thomas K.E., Thompson A.H., Thomson A.J., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Torre A., Tortajada M., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Troeger C., Truelsen T., Tsoi D., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Undurraga E.A., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Uzochukwu B.S.C., Van Boven J.F.M., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whetter B., Whiteford H.A., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Workicho A., Xavier D., Xiao Q., Xu G., Yaghoubi M., Yakob B., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yimam H.H., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zegeye E.A., Zenebe Z.M., Zerfu T.A., Zhang A.L., Zhang X., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Naghavi M., Abajobir A.A., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Adetokunboh O., Arnlov J., Afshin A., Agrawal A., Kiadaliri A.A., Ahmadi A., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Aiyar S., Al-Eyadhy A., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alene K.A., Ali S.D., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkaabi J.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N., Andersen H.H., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Ansari H., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Atey T.M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Bejot Y., Babalola T.K., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barquera S., Bhatt S., Biadgilign S., Bienhof K., Bikbov B., Bisanzio D., Bourne R.R.A., Breitborde N.J.K., Bulto L.N.B., Bumgarner B.R., Butt Z.A., Cardenas R., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cameron E., Campuzano J.C., Car J., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Casey D.C., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Catala-Lopez F., Charlson F.J., Chibueze C.E., Chimed-Ochir O., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christopher D.J., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Cohen A.J., Colombara D., Cooper C., Cowie B.C., Criqui M.H., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Das Neves J., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Deribe K., Deribew A., Dey S., Dicker D., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Doku D.T., Douwes-Schultz D., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Echko M., El-Khatib Z.Z., Ellingsen C.L., Enayati A., Erskine H.E., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Ermakov S.P., Estep K., Sa Farinha C.S., Faro A., and Farzadfar F.
- Abstract
Background: Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specifc mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Method(s): We estimated cause-specifc deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specifc causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specifc deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Finding(s): The quality of available data vari
- Published
- 2017
28. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
- Author
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Soneji S., Alahdab F., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Terkawi A.S., Tesssema B., Thakur J.S., Thamsuwan O., Thankappan K.R., Theis A.M., Thomas M.L., Thomson A.J., Thrift A.G., Tillmann T., Tobe-Gai R., Tobollik M., Tollanes M.C., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Torre A., Tortajada M., Touvier M., Tran B.X., Truelsen T., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Van Boven J.F.M., Van Donkelaar A., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Veerman L.J., Venkateswaran V., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Workicho A., Wulf Hanson S., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yaseri M., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zhang X., Zimsen S.R.M., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., Gakidou E., Afshin A., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Abyu G.Y., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afarideh M., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Ali K., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Ansari H., Anto J.M., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arian N., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Atey T.M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Azzopardi P., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Ballew S.H., Barac A., Barber R.M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Batis C., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhansali A., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Bou-Orm I.R., Brauer M., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Brugha T.S., Bulto L.N.B., Baumgarner B.R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K., Chang H.-Y., Charlson F.J., Chimed-Ochir O., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cohen A.J., Comfort H., Cooper C., Coresh J., Cornaby L., Cortesi P.A., Criqui M.H., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das Neves J., Davey G., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., De Courten B., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Deshpande A., Dharmaratne S.D., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Duncan S., Ebert N., Ebrahimi H., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Faraon E.J.A., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fay K., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Ganji M., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Ghajar A., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goryakin Y., Goulart A.C., Graetz N., Gugnani H.C., Guo J., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay S.I., Hedayati M.T., Hendrie D., Heredia-Pi I.B., Hoek H.W., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Hu G., Huang H., Huang J.J., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C., Inoue M., Irvine C.M.S., Jackson M.D., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jauregui A., Javanbakht M., Jeemon P., Johansson L.R.K., Johnson C.O., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Knibbs L.D., Knudsen A.K., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Kromhout H., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kutz M., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Lee A., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Liang X., Liben M.L., Linn S., Liu P., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lunevicius R., Macarayan E.R.K., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Martin R.V., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Mathur M.R., Matsushita K., Matzopoulos R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Meier T., Melaku Y.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohamed Ibrahim N., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mueller U.O., Mullany E.C., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Pa M., Pacella R.E., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Pandian J.D., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Parry C.D., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Piradov M.A., Pishgar F., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Polinder S., Popova S., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prasad N., Purcell C., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.H.U., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Rawaf S., Rehm C.D., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Reitsma M.B., Reynales-Shigematsu L.M., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Ribeiro A.L., Rivera J.A., Roba K.T., Rojas-Rueda D., Roman Y., Room R., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Rubagotti E., Rushton L., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sahathevan R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sanchez-Pimienta T.G., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schaeffner E., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Serdar B., Servan-Mori E.E., Shaddick G., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamah Levy T., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Shariful Islam S.M., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shen J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shin M.-J., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Sorensen R.J.D., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Strub B., Subart M., Sufiyan M.B., Suliankatchi R.A., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Takahashi K., Takala J.S., Tandon N., Tanner M., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., Tegegne T.K., Soneji S., Alahdab F., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Terkawi A.S., Tesssema B., Thakur J.S., Thamsuwan O., Thankappan K.R., Theis A.M., Thomas M.L., Thomson A.J., Thrift A.G., Tillmann T., Tobe-Gai R., Tobollik M., Tollanes M.C., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Torre A., Tortajada M., Touvier M., Tran B.X., Truelsen T., Tuem K.B., Tuzcu E.M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Updike R., Uthman O.A., Van Boven J.F.M., Van Donkelaar A., Varughese S., Vasankari T., Veerman L.J., Venkateswaran V., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wadilo F., Wakayo T., Wallin M.T., Wang Y.-P., Weichenthal S., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Wiysonge C.S., Woldeyes B.G., Wolfe C.D.A., Woodbrook R., Workicho A., Wulf Hanson S., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yaseri M., Yimam H.H., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., El Sayed Zaki M., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zhang X., Zimsen S.R.M., Zipkin B., Zodpey S., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., Gakidou E., Afshin A., Abajobir A.A., Abate K.H., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abera S.F., Aboyans V., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Abyu G.Y., Adedeji I.A., Adetokunboh O., Afarideh M., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akinyemi R.O., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alasfoor D., Alene K.A., Ali K., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K.A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Ansari H., Anto J.M., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arian N., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asgedom S.W., Atey T.M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Azzopardi P., Bacha U., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Ballew S.H., Barac A., Barber R.M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T., Barquera S., Barregard L., Barrero L.H., Batis C., Battle K.E., Baune B.T., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bell M.L., Bennett D.A., Bennett J.R., Bensenor I.M., Berhane A., Berhe D.F., Bernabe E., Betsu B.D., Beuran M., Beyene A.S., Bhansali A., Bhutta Z.A., Bikbov B., Birungi C., Biryukov S., Blosser C.D., Boneya D.J., Bou-Orm I.R., Brauer M., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Brugha T.S., Bulto L.N.B., Baumgarner B.R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K., Chang H.-Y., Charlson F.J., Chimed-Ochir O., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A.A., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cohen A.J., Comfort H., Cooper C., Coresh J., Cornaby L., Cortesi P.A., Criqui M.H., Crump J.A., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das Neves J., Davey G., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., De Courten B., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Deribe K., Deshpande A., Dharmaratne S.D., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Duncan B.B., Duncan S., Ebert N., Ebrahimi H., El-Khatib Z.Z., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Estep K., Faraon E.J.A., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fay K., Feigin V.L., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa T.R., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flaxman A.D., Foigt N., Foreman K.J., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Ganji M., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Geleto A., Gemechu B.L., Gesesew H.A., Gething P.W., Ghajar A., Gibney K.B., Gill P.S., Gillum R.F., Giref A.Z., Gishu M.D., Giussani G., Godwin W.W., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goryakin Y., Goulart A.C., Graetz N., Gugnani H.C., Guo J., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Hareri H.A., Hassanvand M.S., Havmoeller R., Hawley C., Hay S.I., Hedayati M.T., Hendrie D., Heredia-Pi I.B., Hoek H.W., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hostiuc S., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Hu G., Huang H., Huang J.J., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C., Inoue M., Irvine C.M.S., Jackson M.D., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jauregui A., Javanbakht M., Jeemon P., Johansson L.R.K., Johnson C.O., Jonas J.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kamal R., Karch A., Karema C.K., Kasaeian A., Kassebaum N.J., Kastor A., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Keiyoro P.N., Kelbore S.G., Kemmer L., Kengne A.P., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khang Y.-H., Khosravi A., Khubchandani J., Kieling C., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K.A., Kivimaki M., Knibbs L.D., Knudsen A.K., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Krohn K.J., Kromhout H., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kutz M., Kyu H.H., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lan Q., Lansingh V.C., Larsson A., Lee A., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Liang X., Liben M.L., Linn S., Liu P., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lunevicius R., Macarayan E.R.K., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malhotra R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manguerra H., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Martin R.V., Martinez-Raga J., Martins-Melo F.R., Mathur M.R., Matsushita K., Matzopoulos R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Meier T., Melaku Y.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengesha M.M., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Micha R., Millear A., Miller T.R., Minnig S., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A., Mishra S.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammed K.E., Mohammed S., Mohamed Ibrahim N., Mohan M.B.V., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montico M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Mountjoy-Venning C., Mueller U.O., Mullany E.C., Muller K., Murthy G.V.S., Musa K.I., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nangia V., Natarajan G., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen G., Nguyen M., Nguyen Q.L., Nguyen T.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nomura M., Nong V.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J.N., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Pa M., Pacella R.E., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Pandian J.D., Papachristou C., Park E.-K., Parry C.D., Patten S.B., Patton G.C., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Piradov M.A., Pishgar F., Plass D., Pletcher M.A., Polinder S., Popova S., Poulton R.G., Pourmalek F., Prasad N., Purcell C., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.H.U., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Ram U., Rawaf S., Rehm C.D., Rehm J., Reiner R.C., Reitsma M.B., Reynales-Shigematsu L.M., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Ribeiro A.L., Rivera J.A., Roba K.T., Rojas-Rueda D., Roman Y., Room R., Roshandel G., Roth G.A., Rothenbacher D., Rubagotti E., Rushton L., Sadat N., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sahathevan R., Salama J., Salomon J.A., Samy A.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sanchez-Pimienta T.G., Santomauro D., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schaeffner E., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sepanlou S.G., Serdar B., Servan-Mori E.E., Shaddick G., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Shamah Levy T., Shamsipour M., Shamsizadeh M., Shariful Islam S.M., Sharma J., Sharma R., She J., Shen J., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shin M.-J., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L., Smith D.L., Smith M., Sobaih B.H.A., Sobngwi E., Sorensen R.J.D., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Steel N., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steinke S., Stokes M.A., Strub B., Subart M., Sufiyan M.B., Suliankatchi R.A., Sur P.J., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Takahashi K., Takala J.S., Tandon N., Tanner M., Tarekegn Y.L., Tavakkoli M., and Tegegne T.K.
- Abstract
Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Method(s): We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Finding(s): Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for m
- Published
- 2017
29. Circulating Folate and Vitamin B12 and Risk of Prostate Cancer: A Collaborative Analysis of Individual Participant Data from Six Cohorts Including 6875 Cases and 8104 Controls
- Author
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Price, A.J. Travis, R.C. Appleby, P.N. Albanes, D. Barricarte Gurrea, A. Bjørge, T. Bueno-de-Mesquita, H.B. Chen, C. Donovan, J. Gislefoss, R. Goodman, G. Gunter, M. Hamdy, F.C. Johansson, M. King, I.B. Kühn, T. Männistö, S. Martin, R.M. Meyer, K. Neal, D.E. Neuhouser, M.L. Nygård, O. Stattin, P. Tell, G.S. Trichopoulou, A. Tumino, R. Ueland, P.M. Ulvik, A. de Vogel, S. Vollset, S.E. Weinstein, S.J. Key, T.J. Allen, N.E. on behalf of the Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers, Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group
- Abstract
Background Folate and vitamin B12 are essential for maintaining DNA integrity and may influence prostate cancer (PCa) risk, but the association with clinically relevant, advanced stage, and high-grade disease is unclear. Objective To investigate the associations between circulating folate and vitamin B12 concentrations and risk of PCa overall and by disease stage and grade. Design, setting, and participants A study was performed with a nested case–control design based on individual participant data from six cohort studies including 6875 cases and 8104 controls; blood collection from 1981 to 2008, and an average follow-up of 8.9 yr (standard deviation 7.3). Odds ratios (ORs) of incident PCa by study-specific fifths of circulating folate and vitamin B12 were calculated using multivariable adjusted conditional logistic regression. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Incident PCa and subtype by stage and grade. Results and limitations Higher folate and vitamin B12 concentrations were associated with a small increase in risk of PCa (ORs for the top vs bottom fifths were 1.13 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02–1.26], ptrend = 0.018, for folate and 1.12 [95% CI, 1.01–1.25], ptrend = 0.017, for vitamin B12), with no evidence of heterogeneity between studies. The association with folate varied by tumour grade (pheterogeneity 0.05). Use of single blood-sample measurements of folate and B12 concentrations is a limitation. Conclusions The association between higher folate concentration and risk of high-grade disease, not evident for low-grade disease, suggests a possible role for folate in the progression of clinically relevant PCa and warrants further investigation. Patient summary Folate, a vitamin obtained from foods and supplements, is important for maintaining cell health. In this study, however, men with higher blood folate levels were at greater risk of high-grade (more aggressive) prostate cancer compared with men with lower folate levels. Further research is needed to investigate the possible role of folate in the progression of this disease. © 2016 European Association of Urology
- Published
- 2016
30. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- Author
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Rabiee R.H.S., Kan H., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Kaul A., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khera S., Tavakkoli M., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Skogen J.C., Savic M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., McGarvey S.T., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Varakin Y.Y., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kudom A.A., Polinder S., Kuipers E.J., Lallukka T., Shiri R., Meretoja T.J., Lam H., Lam J.O., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Langan S.M., McKee M., Lavados P.M., Leasher J.L., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liang J., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Lloyd B.K., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mahdavi M., Marcenes W., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Martinez-Raga J., McMahon B.J., Mehari A., Tedla B.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Morawska L., Norman R.E., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Murdoch M.E., Seedat S., Wiysonge C.S., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naheed A., Naldi L., Nangia V., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie Pete P.M., Nolla J.M., Nunes B.P., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Ohkubo T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ortiz A., Ota E., Park E., Passos V.M.D.A., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Pereira D.M., Perez-Padilla R., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Platts-Mills J.A., Pond C.D., Prasad N.M., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Sahathevan R., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Sawhney M., Schaub M.P., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Sharma U., Shin M., Yoon S., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silveira D.G.A., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Sliwa K., Stein D.J., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stovner L.J., Steinke S., Stroumpoulis K., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Takala J.S., Tanne D., Terkawi A.S., Tuzcu E.M., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Truelsen T., Tsala Dimbuene Z., Tsilimbaris M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., van Gool C.H., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Waller S.G., Weichenthal S., White R.A., Williams H.C., Wubshet M., Xavier D., Xu G., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zeeb H., Zuhlke L.J., Vos T., Allen C., Arora M., Barber R.M., Brown A., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coggeshall M., Cornaby L., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Dilegge T., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Fleming T., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Johnson C.O., Kassebaum N.J., Kawashima T., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lopez A.D., Marczak L., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Olsen H., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Rankin Z., Reinig N., Sandar L., Smith A., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., Wagner J.A., Wang H., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zoeckler L., Alexander L.T., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Bienhoff K., Biryukov S., Blore J., Brown J., Coates M.M., Daoud F., Estep K., Foreman K., Fox J., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Hancock J., Huynh C., Iannarone M., Kim P., Kutz M., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Mooney M.D., Moradi-Lakeh M., Mullany E., Mumford J.E., Ng M., Rao P., Reitsma M.B., Reynolds A., Roth G.A., Shackelford K.A., Sivonda A., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Sur P., Vollset S.E., Woodbrook R., Zhou M., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Kotsakis G.A., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Futran N.D., Jensen P.N., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Scott J.G., Alam N.K.M., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Deribew A., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Rahimi K., Kinfu Y., Duan L., Liu S., Jin Y., Wang L., Ye P., Liang X., Azzopardi P., Gibney K.B., Meretoja A., Alam K., Borschmann R., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Szoeke C.E.I., Ademi Z., Taylor H.R., Lozano R., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Ajala O.N., Barnighausen T., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Osman M., Shrime M.G., Fitchett J.R.A., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Banerjee A., Benzian H., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Ackerman I.N., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Thrift A.G., Adebiyi A.O., Akinyemi R.O., Adou A.K., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Badawi A., Popova S., Agarwal A., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Jahanmehr N., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Kemp A.H., Leigh J., Mekonnen A.B., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Alegretti M.A., Alemu Z.A., Alhabib S., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Guillemin F., Allebeck P., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Melaku Y.A., Ciobanu L.G., Amberbir A., Amini H., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Aregay A.F., Betsu B.D., Hailu G.B., Yebyo H.G., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Assadi R., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu A., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beghi E., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Huang J.J., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Hay R.J., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Piel F.B., Steiner T.J., Bhatt S., Greaves F., Majeed A., Soljak M., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Boufous S., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Calabria B., Mitchell P.B., Brainin M., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Lo W.D., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Buckle G.C., Butt Z.A., Lal A., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J., Chiang P.P., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cooper C., Cortinovis Biotech M.D., Giussani Biol G., Perico D.N., Remuzzi G., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Damtew S.A., Deribe K., Hailu A.D., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Jibat T., Taye B., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Massano J., Santos J.V., Davey G., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., De Leo D., Del Gobbo L.C., Dellavalle R.P., Des Jarlais D.C., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Ganguly P., Zodpey S., Diaz-Torne C., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Singh A., Verma R.K., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Ebrahimi H., Pishgar F., Farzadfar F., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Heydarpour P., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Elyazar I., Endres M., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te Ao B.J., Kwan G.F., Felson D.T., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Furst T., Iyer V.J., Gankpe F.G., Gebre T., Geleijnse J.M., Gessner B.D., Ginawi I.A., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Tura A.K., Glaser E., Halasa Y.A., Shepard D.S., Undurraga E.A., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Inoue M., Grainger R., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Knudsen A.K., Norheim O.F., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hoek H.W., Skirbekk V., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Huang H., Iburg K.M., Innos K., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Jacobsen K.H., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Prabhakaran D., Jiang Y., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., Rabiee R.H.S., Kan H., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Kaul A., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khera S., Tavakkoli M., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Skogen J.C., Savic M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., McGarvey S.T., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Varakin Y.Y., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kudom A.A., Polinder S., Kuipers E.J., Lallukka T., Shiri R., Meretoja T.J., Lam H., Lam J.O., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Langan S.M., McKee M., Lavados P.M., Leasher J.L., Leung R., Levi M., Li Y., Liang J., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Lloyd B.K., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Lunevicius R., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mahdavi M., Marcenes W., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Martinez-Raga J., McMahon B.J., Mehari A., Tedla B.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Morawska L., Norman R.E., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Murdoch M.E., Seedat S., Wiysonge C.S., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naheed A., Naldi L., Nangia V., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie Pete P.M., Nolla J.M., Nunes B.P., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Ohkubo T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ortiz A., Ota E., Park E., Passos V.M.D.A., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Pereira D.M., Perez-Padilla R., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Platts-Mills J.A., Pond C.D., Prasad N.M., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Sahathevan R., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Sawhney M., Schaub M.P., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Sharma U., Shin M., Yoon S., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silveira D.G.A., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Sliwa K., Stein D.J., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stovner L.J., Steinke S., Stroumpoulis K., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Takala J.S., Tanne D., Terkawi A.S., Tuzcu E.M., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Truelsen T., Tsala Dimbuene Z., Tsilimbaris M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., van Gool C.H., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V.V., Waller S.G., Weichenthal S., White R.A., Williams H.C., Wubshet M., Xavier D., Xu G., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zeeb H., Zuhlke L.J., Vos T., Allen C., Arora M., Barber R.M., Brown A., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coggeshall M., Cornaby L., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Dilegge T., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Fleming T., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Johnson C.O., Kassebaum N.J., Kawashima T., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lopez A.D., Marczak L., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Olsen H., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Rankin Z., Reinig N., Sandar L., Smith A., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., Wagner J.A., Wang H., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zoeckler L., Alexander L.T., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Bienhoff K., Biryukov S., Blore J., Brown J., Coates M.M., Daoud F., Estep K., Foreman K., Fox J., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Hancock J., Huynh C., Iannarone M., Kim P., Kutz M., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Mooney M.D., Moradi-Lakeh M., Mullany E., Mumford J.E., Ng M., Rao P., Reitsma M.B., Reynolds A., Roth G.A., Shackelford K.A., Sivonda A., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Sur P., Vollset S.E., Woodbrook R., Zhou M., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Kotsakis G.A., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Futran N.D., Jensen P.N., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Scott J.G., Alam N.K.M., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Deribew A., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Rahimi K., Kinfu Y., Duan L., Liu S., Jin Y., Wang L., Ye P., Liang X., Azzopardi P., Gibney K.B., Meretoja A., Alam K., Borschmann R., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Szoeke C.E.I., Ademi Z., Taylor H.R., Lozano R., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Ajala O.N., Barnighausen T., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Osman M., Shrime M.G., Fitchett J.R.A., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Banerjee A., Benzian H., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Ackerman I.N., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Thrift A.G., Adebiyi A.O., Akinyemi R.O., Adou A.K., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Badawi A., Popova S., Agarwal A., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Jahanmehr N., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Kemp A.H., Leigh J., Mekonnen A.B., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Alegretti M.A., Alemu Z.A., Alhabib S., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Guillemin F., Allebeck P., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Melaku Y.A., Ciobanu L.G., Amberbir A., Amini H., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Aregay A.F., Betsu B.D., Hailu G.B., Yebyo H.G., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Assadi R., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu A., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beghi E., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Huang J.J., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Hay R.J., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Bhala N., Piel F.B., Steiner T.J., Bhatt S., Greaves F., Majeed A., Soljak M., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Boufous S., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Calabria B., Mitchell P.B., Brainin M., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Lo W.D., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Buckle G.C., Butt Z.A., Lal A., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J., Chiang P.P., Chibueze C.E., Chisumpa V.H., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Cooper C., Cortinovis Biotech M.D., Giussani Biol G., Perico D.N., Remuzzi G., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Damtew S.A., Deribe K., Hailu A.D., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Jibat T., Taye B., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Massano J., Santos J.V., Davey G., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., De Leo D., Del Gobbo L.C., Dellavalle R.P., Des Jarlais D.C., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Ganguly P., Zodpey S., Diaz-Torne C., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Singh A., Verma R.K., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Ebrahimi H., Pishgar F., Farzadfar F., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Heydarpour P., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Elyazar I., Endres M., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te Ao B.J., Kwan G.F., Felson D.T., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Furst T., Iyer V.J., Gankpe F.G., Gebre T., Geleijnse J.M., Gessner B.D., Ginawi I.A., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Tura A.K., Glaser E., Halasa Y.A., Shepard D.S., Undurraga E.A., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Inoue M., Grainger R., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Knudsen A.K., Norheim O.F., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hoek H.W., Skirbekk V., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Huang H., Iburg K.M., Innos K., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Jacobsen K.H., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Prabhakaran D., Jiang Y., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., and Kesavachandran C.N.
- Abstract
Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 bi
- Published
- 2016
31. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- Author
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Karema C.K., Kajungu D.K., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., She J., Kan H., Kandel A., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Kaul A., Kazi D.S., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Kengne A.P., Matzopoulos R., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Skogen J.C., Savic M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kuate B., Kuchenbecker R.S., Kucuk B., Kuipers E.J., Lallukka T., Shiri R., Meretoja T.J., Latif A.A., Lavados P.M., Lawrynowicz A.E.B., Leasher J.L., Leung R., Li Y., Lipshultz S.E., Wilkinson J.D., Simard E.P., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Rai D., Lunevicius R., Magdy H., Mahdavi M., Malta D.C., Marcenes W., Martinez-Raga J., Mason-Jones A.J., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Meaney P.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Murdoch M.E., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Naheed A., Naldi L., Nangia V., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie P.M., Nolla J.M., Norman R.E., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Oladimeji O., Sartorius B., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Schutte A.E., Oyekale A.S., Pa M., Park E., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Pereira D.M., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Polinder S., Prasad N.M., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju M., Ranganathan K., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Ricci S., Rojas-Rueda D., Sackey B.B., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Shigematsu M., Shin M., Yoon S., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stein M.B., Stovner L.J., Stranges S., Stroumpoulis K., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tanne D., Tavakkoli M., Taye B., Tuzcu E.M., Thakur J., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Truelsen T., Tsala Z., Tsilimbaris M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., van Gool C.H., van Os J., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Wallin M.T., Weichenthal S., Williams H.C., Woldeyohannes S.M., Xu G., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zeeb H., Zuhlke L.J., Brown J., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang L., Kassebaum N.J., Arora M., Barber R.M., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Coates M.M., Coggeshall M., Cornaby L., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Foreman K., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Johnson C.O., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Kinfu Y., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lozano R., Mikesell J., Mokdad A.H., Mooney M.D., Naghavi M., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Rankin Z., Reinig N., Sandar L., Smith A., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., VanderZanden A., Wagner J.A., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zhou M., Zoeckler L., Achoki T., Afshin A., Alexander L.T., Allen C., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Bienhoff K., Biryukov S., Blore J.D., Estep K., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Liu P.Y., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Mumford J.E., Ng M., Reitsma M.B., Reynolds A., Roth G.A., Sur P.J., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Futran N.D., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., deVeber G.A., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Alam N.K.M., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Rahimi K., Duan L., Jin Y., Ye P., Liang X., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Barnighausen T., Campos-Nonato I.R., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Fitchett J.R.A., Abate K.H., Ahmed M.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Banerjee A., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Ackerman I.N., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Lloyd B.K., Adebiyi A.O., Adedeji I.A., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Badawi A., Popova S., Agarwal A., Agarwal S.K., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Katibeh M., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Azzopardi P., Borschmann R., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Meretoja A., Szoeke C.E.I., Taylor H.R., Wijeratne T., Driscoll T.R., Leigh J., Kemp A.H., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Alegretti M.A., Aleman A.V., Cavalleri F., Colistro V., Alemu Z.A., Tegegne T.K., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Rabiee R.H.S., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Kivipelto M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Sindi S., Alsharif U., Alvarez E., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Melaku Y.A., Ciobanu L.G., Tessema G.A., Amberbir A., Amegah A.K., Ameh E.A., Amini H., Furst T., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Zonies D., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Arsic V.S., Barac A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Gankpe F.G., Awasthi A., Ayala B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Del L.C., Bayou T.A., Betsu B.D., Hailu G.B., Tekle D.Y., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Huang J.J., Benjet C., Gutierrez R.A., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Hay R.J., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Hassen T.A., Mesfi Y.M., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Piel F.B., Steiner T.J., Bhatt S., Majeed A., Soljak M., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bin A.A., Bjertness E., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Brugha T.S., Buckle G.C., Butt Z.A., Calabria B., Lucas R.M., Boufous S., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Mitchell P.B., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Jauregui A., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Servan-Mori E.E., Carabin H., Carapetis J.R., Cardenas R., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Mori R., Chisumpa V.H., Choi J.J., Choudhury L., Christensen H., Colomar M., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Giussani G., Cortinovis M., Perico N., Remuzzi G., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Pedro J.M., Santos J.V., Davey G., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., De Leo D., Des Jarlais D.C., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Zodpey S., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Ebrahimi H., Esteghamati A., Farzadfar F., Hafezi-Nejad N., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Pishgar F., Sheikhbahaei S., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Hassanvand M.S., Heydarpour P., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Elyazar I., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te B.J., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Foigt N., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Geleijnse J.M., Jibat T., Gibney K.B., Gillum R.F., Mehari A., Ginawi I.A., Hailu A.D., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Tura A.K., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Inoue M., Gugnani H., Gupta R., Gupta V., Knudsen A.K., Norheim O.F., Halasa Y.A., Undurraga E.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hedayati M.T., Hoek H.W., Skirbekk V., Hoff D.J., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Huang H., Iburg K.M., Idrisov B.T., Kwan G.F., Innos K., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Jacobsen K.H., Jayatilleke A.U., Jiang G., Jiang Y., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Karema C.K., Kajungu D.K., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., She J., Kan H., Kandel A., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Kaul A., Kazi D.S., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Kengne A.P., Matzopoulos R., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Skogen J.C., Savic M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kuate B., Kuchenbecker R.S., Kucuk B., Kuipers E.J., Lallukka T., Shiri R., Meretoja T.J., Latif A.A., Lavados P.M., Lawrynowicz A.E.B., Leasher J.L., Leung R., Li Y., Lipshultz S.E., Wilkinson J.D., Simard E.P., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Logroscino G., Looker K.J., Rai D., Lunevicius R., Magdy H., Mahdavi M., Malta D.C., Marcenes W., Martinez-Raga J., Mason-Jones A.J., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Meaney P.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Murdoch M.E., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Naheed A., Naldi L., Nangia V., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie P.M., Nolla J.M., Norman R.E., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Oladimeji O., Sartorius B., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Schutte A.E., Oyekale A.S., Pa M., Park E., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Pereira D.M., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Polinder S., Prasad N.M., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju M., Ranganathan K., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Ricci S., Rojas-Rueda D., Sackey B.B., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Shigematsu M., Shin M., Yoon S., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stein M.B., Stovner L.J., Stranges S., Stroumpoulis K., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tanne D., Tavakkoli M., Taye B., Tuzcu E.M., Thakur J., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Truelsen T., Tsala Z., Tsilimbaris M., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., van Gool C.H., van Os J., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Wallin M.T., Weichenthal S., Williams H.C., Woldeyohannes S.M., Xu G., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zeeb H., Zuhlke L.J., Brown J., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang L., Kassebaum N.J., Arora M., Barber R.M., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Coates M.M., Coggeshall M., Cornaby L., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Foreman K., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Johnson C.O., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Kinfu Y., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lozano R., Mikesell J., Mokdad A.H., Mooney M.D., Naghavi M., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Rankin Z., Reinig N., Sandar L., Smith A., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., VanderZanden A., Wagner J.A., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zhou M., Zoeckler L., Achoki T., Afshin A., Alexander L.T., Allen C., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Bienhoff K., Biryukov S., Blore J.D., Estep K., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Liu P.Y., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Mumford J.E., Ng M., Reitsma M.B., Reynolds A., Roth G.A., Sur P.J., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Futran N.D., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., deVeber G.A., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Alam N.K.M., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Rahimi K., Duan L., Jin Y., Ye P., Liang X., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Barnighausen T., Campos-Nonato I.R., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Fitchett J.R.A., Abate K.H., Ahmed M.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Banerjee A., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Ackerman I.N., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Lloyd B.K., Adebiyi A.O., Adedeji I.A., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Badawi A., Popova S., Agarwal A., Agarwal S.K., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Katibeh M., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Azzopardi P., Borschmann R., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Meretoja A., Szoeke C.E.I., Taylor H.R., Wijeratne T., Driscoll T.R., Leigh J., Kemp A.H., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Alegretti M.A., Aleman A.V., Cavalleri F., Colistro V., Alemu Z.A., Tegegne T.K., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Rabiee R.H.S., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Kivipelto M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Sindi S., Alsharif U., Alvarez E., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Melaku Y.A., Ciobanu L.G., Tessema G.A., Amberbir A., Amegah A.K., Ameh E.A., Amini H., Furst T., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Zonies D., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Arsic V.S., Barac A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Gankpe F.G., Awasthi A., Ayala B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Del L.C., Bayou T.A., Betsu B.D., Hailu G.B., Tekle D.Y., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Huang J.J., Benjet C., Gutierrez R.A., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Hay R.J., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Hassen T.A., Mesfi Y.M., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Piel F.B., Steiner T.J., Bhatt S., Majeed A., Soljak M., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bin A.A., Bjertness E., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Brugha T.S., Buckle G.C., Butt Z.A., Calabria B., Lucas R.M., Boufous S., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Mitchell P.B., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Jauregui A., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Servan-Mori E.E., Carabin H., Carapetis J.R., Cardenas R., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Mori R., Chisumpa V.H., Choi J.J., Choudhury L., Christensen H., Colomar M., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Giussani G., Cortinovis M., Perico N., Remuzzi G., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Pedro J.M., Santos J.V., Davey G., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., De Leo D., Des Jarlais D.C., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Zodpey S., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Ebrahimi H., Esteghamati A., Farzadfar F., Hafezi-Nejad N., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Pishgar F., Sheikhbahaei S., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Hassanvand M.S., Heydarpour P., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Elyazar I., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te B.J., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Foigt N., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Geleijnse J.M., Jibat T., Gibney K.B., Gillum R.F., Mehari A., Ginawi I.A., Hailu A.D., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Tura A.K., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Inoue M., Gugnani H., Gupta R., Gupta V., Knudsen A.K., Norheim O.F., Halasa Y.A., Undurraga E.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hedayati M.T., Hoek H.W., Skirbekk V., Hoff D.J., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Huang H., Iburg K.M., Idrisov B.T., Kwan G.F., Innos K., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Jacobsen K.H., Jayatilleke A.U., Jiang G., Jiang Y., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., and Kabir Z.
- Abstract
Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates d
- Published
- 2016
32. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- Author
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Abraham B., Patil S.T., Patten S.B., Wang J., Pereira D.M., Cortinovis M., Giussani G., Perico N., Remuzzi G., Pesudovs K., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Tobollik M., Polinder S., Pond C.D., Pope C.A., Prasad N.M., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rana S.M., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rajsic S., Rai R.K., Raju M., Ranganathan K., Refaat A.H., Rehm C.D., Ribeiro A.L., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy A., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Rothenbacher D., Saleh M.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Riera L., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schmidhuber J., Schneider I.J.C., Schutte A.E., Silva D.A.S., Shahraz S., Shin M., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Shigematsu M., Yoon S., Shishani K., Sigfusdottir I.D., Singh P.K., Silveira D.G.A., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Soneji S., Stranges S., Steckling N., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stroumpoulis K., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Talongwa R.T., Tanne D., Tuzcu E.M., Thakur J., Shaddick G., Thomas M.L., Thrift A.G., Thurston G.D., Thomson A.J., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Towbin J.A., Uthman O.A., Tobe-Gai R., Tsilimparis N., Tsala Z., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., van Os J., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Waller S.G., Uneke C.J., Wang Y., Weichenthal S., Woolf A.D., Xavier D., Xu G., Yakob B., Yip P., Kesavachandran C.N., Montico M., Ronfani L., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Wubshet M., Zuhlke L.J., Zaki M.E., Zhu J., Forouzanfar M.H., Afshin A., Alexander L.T., Biryukov S., Brauer M., Cercy K., Charlson F.J., Cohen A.J., Dandona L., Estep K., Ferrari A.J., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Godwin W.W., Griswold M., Hay S.I., Kyu H.H., Larson H.J., Lim S.S., Liu P.Y., Lopez A.D., Lozano R., Marczak L., Mokdad A.H., Moradi-Lakeh M., Naghavi M., Reitsma M.B., Roth G.A., Sur P.J., Vos T., Wagner J.A., Wang H., Zhao Y., Zhou M., Barber R.M., Bell B., Blore J.D., Casey D.C., Coates M.M., Cooperrider K., Cornaby L., Dicker D., Erskine H.E., Fleming T., Foreman K., Gakidou E., Haagsma J.A., Johnson C.O., Kemmer L., Ku T., Leung J., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Misganaw A., Mullany E., Mumford J.E., Ng M., Olsen H., Rao P., Reinig N., Roman Y., Sandar L., Santomauro D.F., Slepak E.L., Sorensen R.J.D., Thomas B.A., Vollset S.E., Whiteford H.A., Zipkin B., Murray C.J.L., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Futran N.D., Anderson H.R., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., Krueger H., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Pourmalek F., Burnett R., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Veerman J.L., Lalloo R., Scott J.G., Alam N.K.M., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Goenka S., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Deribew A., Darby S.C., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Kinfu Y., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Pearce N., Stockl H., Duan L., Jin Y., Li Y., Liu S., Wang L., Ye P., Liang X., Azzopardi P., Patton G.C., Meretoja A., Alam K., Borschmann R., Colquhoun S.M., Weintraub R.G., Szoeke C.E.I., Ademi Z., Taylor H.R., Wijeratne T., Batis C., Barquera S., Campos-Nonato I.R., Contreras A.G., Cuevas-Nasu L., De V., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Medina C., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Razo-Garcia C.A., Rivera J.A., Rodriguez-Ramirez S., Sanchez-Pimienta T.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shamah T., Mensah G.A., Hoff H.J., Neal B., Driscoll T.R., Kemp A.H., Leigh J., Mekonnen A.B., Bhatt S., Furst T., Piel F.B., Rodriguez A., Hutchings S.J., Majeed A., Soljak M., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Ajala O.N., Barnighausen T., Cahill L.E., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Khatibzadeh S., Wagner G.R., Shrime M.G., Fitchett J.R.A., Aasvang G.M., Savic M., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abera S.F., Melaku Y.A., Abyu G.Y., Betsu B.D., Hailu G.B., Tekle D.Y., Yalew A.Z., Abu-Raddad L.J., Adebiyi A.O., Adedeji I.A., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Agardh E.E., Rehm J., Badawi A., Popova S., Agarwal A., Ahmad A., Akinyemiju T.F., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Al-Aly Z., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Aldridge R.W., Tillmann T., Alemu Z.A., Tegegne T.K., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Guillemin F., Allebeck P., Rabiee R.H.S., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Kivipelto M., Carrero J.J., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Sindi S., Alsharif U., Alvarez E., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Ciobanu L.G., Taye B.W., Amberbir A., Amegah A.K., Amini H., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Faraon E.J.A., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Assadi R., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala B.P., Bacha U., Bahit M.C., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., del Pozo-Cruz B., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Del L.C., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Huang J.J., Bello A.K., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Hassen T.A., Mesfin Y.M., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Boufous S., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Calabria B., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Schottker B., Broday D.M., Brugha T.S., Brunekreef B., Kromhout H., Butt Z.A., van Donkelaar A., Martin R.V., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo J., Castro R.E., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chimed-Ochir O., Jiang Y., Takahashi K., Chisumpa V.H., Mapoma C.C., Chitheer A.A., Choi J.J., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cooper L.T., Crump J.A., Poulton R.G., Damasceno A., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., Davletov K., de Castro E.F., De D., Dellavalle R.P., Des D.C., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Lal D.K., Zodpey S., Diaz-Torne C., Dorsey E.R., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Singh A., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Elyazar I., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Farzadfar F., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Esteghamati A., Hafezi-Nejad N., Sheikhbahaei S., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Hassanvand M.S., Heydarpour P., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Yaseri M., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Fernandes J.G., Fischer F., Foigt N., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Geleijnse J.M., Jibat T., Gessner B.D., Tefera W., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Manamo W.A.A., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Martinez-Raga J., Gomez-Cabrera M.C., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goto A., Inoue M., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gutierrez R.A., Orozco R., Halasa Y.A., Undurraga E.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hernandez-Llanes N.F., Hoek H.W., Tura A.K., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Hu G., Husseini A., Huybrechts I., Iburg K.M., Idrisov B.T., Kwan G.F., Ileanu B.V., Pana A., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Jacobs T.A., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jansen H.A.F., Jassal S.K., Stein M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., She J., Kan H., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Kaul A., Kazi D.S., Keiyoro P.N., Parry C.D., Kengne A.P., Matzopoulos R., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khera S., Tavakkoli M., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kimokoti R.W., Kokubo Y., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Varakin Y.Y., Kuate B., Kuchenbecker R.S., Kucuk B., Kuipers E.J., Lallukka T., Shiri R., Meretoja T.J., Lan Q., Latif A.A., Lawrynowicz A.E.B., Leasher J.L., Levi M., Li X., Liang J., Lloyd B.K., Logroscino G., Lunevicius R., Pope D., Mahdavi M., Malta D.C., Marcenes W., Matsushita K., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Meaney P.A., Mehari A., Tedla B.A., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mensink G.B.M., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mohammadi A., Mola G.L.D., Monasta L., Morawska L., Norman R.E., Mori R., Mozaff D., Shi P., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Paternina A.J., Westerman R., Seedat S., Naheed A., Nangia V., Nassiri N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie P.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Nyakarahuka L., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Oladimeji O., Sartorius B., Olusanya B.O., Olivares P.R., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Mahesh P.A., Park E., Patel T., Abraham B., Patil S.T., Patten S.B., Wang J., Pereira D.M., Cortinovis M., Giussani G., Perico N., Remuzzi G., Pesudovs K., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Tobollik M., Polinder S., Pond C.D., Pope C.A., Prasad N.M., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rana S.M., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rajsic S., Rai R.K., Raju M., Ranganathan K., Refaat A.H., Rehm C.D., Ribeiro A.L., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy A., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Rothenbacher D., Saleh M.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Riera L., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schmidhuber J., Schneider I.J.C., Schutte A.E., Silva D.A.S., Shahraz S., Shin M., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Shigematsu M., Yoon S., Shishani K., Sigfusdottir I.D., Singh P.K., Silveira D.G.A., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Soneji S., Stranges S., Steckling N., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stroumpoulis K., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Talongwa R.T., Tanne D., Tuzcu E.M., Thakur J., Shaddick G., Thomas M.L., Thrift A.G., Thurston G.D., Thomson A.J., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Towbin J.A., Uthman O.A., Tobe-Gai R., Tsilimparis N., Tsala Z., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., van Os J., Vasankari T., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Waller S.G., Uneke C.J., Wang Y., Weichenthal S., Woolf A.D., Xavier D., Xu G., Yakob B., Yip P., Kesavachandran C.N., Montico M., Ronfani L., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Wubshet M., Zuhlke L.J., Zaki M.E., Zhu J., Forouzanfar M.H., Afshin A., Alexander L.T., Biryukov S., Brauer M., Cercy K., Charlson F.J., Cohen A.J., Dandona L., Estep K., Ferrari A.J., Frostad J.J., Fullman N., Godwin W.W., Griswold M., Hay S.I., Kyu H.H., Larson H.J., Lim S.S., Liu P.Y., Lopez A.D., Lozano R., Marczak L., Mokdad A.H., Moradi-Lakeh M., Naghavi M., Reitsma M.B., Roth G.A., Sur P.J., Vos T., Wagner J.A., Wang H., Zhao Y., Zhou M., Barber R.M., Bell B., Blore J.D., Casey D.C., Coates M.M., Cooperrider K., Cornaby L., Dicker D., Erskine H.E., Fleming T., Foreman K., Gakidou E., Haagsma J.A., Johnson C.O., Kemmer L., Ku T., Leung J., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Misganaw A., Mullany E., Mumford J.E., Ng M., Olsen H., Rao P., Reinig N., Roman Y., Sandar L., Santomauro D.F., Slepak E.L., Sorensen R.J.D., Thomas B.A., Vollset S.E., Whiteford H.A., Zipkin B., Murray C.J.L., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Futran N.D., Anderson H.R., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., Krueger H., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Pourmalek F., Burnett R., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Veerman J.L., Lalloo R., Scott J.G., Alam N.K.M., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Goenka S., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Deribew A., Darby S.C., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Kinfu Y., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Pearce N., Stockl H., Duan L., Jin Y., Li Y., Liu S., Wang L., Ye P., Liang X., Azzopardi P., Patton G.C., Meretoja A., Alam K., Borschmann R., Colquhoun S.M., Weintraub R.G., Szoeke C.E.I., Ademi Z., Taylor H.R., Wijeratne T., Batis C., Barquera S., Campos-Nonato I.R., Contreras A.G., Cuevas-Nasu L., De V., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Medina C., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Razo-Garcia C.A., Rivera J.A., Rodriguez-Ramirez S., Sanchez-Pimienta T.G., Servan-Mori E.E., Shamah T., Mensah G.A., Hoff H.J., Neal B., Driscoll T.R., Kemp A.H., Leigh J., Mekonnen A.B., Bhatt S., Furst T., Piel F.B., Rodriguez A., Hutchings S.J., Majeed A., Soljak M., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Ajala O.N., Barnighausen T., Cahill L.E., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Khatibzadeh S., Wagner G.R., Shrime M.G., Fitchett J.R.A., Aasvang G.M., Savic M., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abera S.F., Melaku Y.A., Abyu G.Y., Betsu B.D., Hailu G.B., Tekle D.Y., Yalew A.Z., Abu-Raddad L.J., Adebiyi A.O., Adedeji I.A., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Agardh E.E., Rehm J., Badawi A., Popova S., Agarwal A., Ahmad A., Akinyemiju T.F., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Al-Aly Z., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Aldridge R.W., Tillmann T., Alemu Z.A., Tegegne T.K., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Guillemin F., Allebeck P., Rabiee R.H.S., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Kivipelto M., Carrero J.J., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Sindi S., Alsharif U., Alvarez E., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Ciobanu L.G., Taye B.W., Amberbir A., Amegah A.K., Amini H., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Faraon E.J.A., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Assadi R., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala B.P., Bacha U., Bahit M.C., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., del Pozo-Cruz B., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Del L.C., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Huang J.J., Bello A.K., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Hassen T.A., Mesfin Y.M., Bhala N., Bhansali A., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Boufous S., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Calabria B., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Schottker B., Broday D.M., Brugha T.S., Brunekreef B., Kromhout H., Butt Z.A., van Donkelaar A., Martin R.V., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo J., Castro R.E., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chimed-Ochir O., Jiang Y., Takahashi K., Chisumpa V.H., Mapoma C.C., Chitheer A.A., Choi J.J., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cooper L.T., Crump J.A., Poulton R.G., Damasceno A., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., Davletov K., de Castro E.F., De D., Dellavalle R.P., Des D.C., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Lal D.K., Zodpey S., Diaz-Torne C., Dorsey E.R., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Singh A., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Elyazar I., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Farzadfar F., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Esteghamati A., Hafezi-Nejad N., Sheikhbahaei S., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Hassanvand M.S., Heydarpour P., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Yaseri M., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Fernandes J.G., Fischer F., Foigt N., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Geleijnse J.M., Jibat T., Gessner B.D., Tefera W., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Manamo W.A.A., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Martinez-Raga J., Gomez-Cabrera M.C., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goto A., Inoue M., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gutierrez R.A., Orozco R., Halasa Y.A., Undurraga E.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hernandez-Llanes N.F., Hoek H.W., Tura A.K., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Hu G., Husseini A., Huybrechts I., Iburg K.M., Idrisov B.T., Kwan G.F., Ileanu B.V., Pana A., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Jacobs T.A., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Jakovljevic M.B., Jansen H.A.F., Jassal S.K., Stein M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., She J., Kan H., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Kaul A., Kazi D.S., Keiyoro P.N., Parry C.D., Kengne A.P., Matzopoulos R., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khera S., Tavakkoli M., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kimokoti R.W., Kokubo Y., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Varakin Y.Y., Kuate B., Kuchenbecker R.S., Kucuk B., Kuipers E.J., Lallukka T., Shiri R., Meretoja T.J., Lan Q., Latif A.A., Lawrynowicz A.E.B., Leasher J.L., Levi M., Li X., Liang J., Lloyd B.K., Logroscino G., Lunevicius R., Pope D., Mahdavi M., Malta D.C., Marcenes W., Matsushita K., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Meaney P.A., Mehari A., Tedla B.A., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mensink G.B.M., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mohammadi A., Mola G.L.D., Monasta L., Morawska L., Norman R.E., Mori R., Mozaff D., Shi P., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Paternina A.J., Westerman R., Seedat S., Naheed A., Nangia V., Nassiri N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie P.M., Norheim O.F., Norrving B., Nyakarahuka L., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Oladimeji O., Sartorius B., Olusanya B.O., Olivares P.R., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Mahesh P.A., Park E., and Patel T.
- Abstract
Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accou
- Published
- 2016
33. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- Author
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Alhabib S., Lipshultz S.E., Wilkinson J.D., Simard E.P., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Xiao Q., Lo L., Logroscino G., Lunevicius R., Ma S., Machado V.M., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mandisarisa J., Mangalam S., Marcenes W., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Silberberg D.H., Martin G.R., Martinez-Raga J., Marzan M.B., Mason-Jones A.J., McMahon B.J., Mehndiratta M.M., Woldeyohannes S.M., Tedla B.A., Zeleke B.M., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Meretoja T.J., Lallukka T., Mhimbira F.A., Micha R., Mozaff D., Shi P., Singh G.M., Miller T.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohan V., Mola G.L.D., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Morawska L., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Musa K.I., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Seedat S., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naidoo K.S., Sartorius B., Naldi L., Remuzzi G., Nangia V., Nash D., Nejjari C., Neupane S., Newton C.R., Ngalesoni F.N., Ngirabega J.D., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie Pete P.M., Nomura M., Nyakarahuka L., Ogbo F.A., Ohkubo T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Ozdemir R., Mahesh P.A., Pandian J.D., Pant P.R., Papachristou C., Park E., Park J., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Stokic Pejin L., Pereira D.M., Cortinovis M., Giussani G., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Platts-Mills J.A., Polinder S., Pope C.A., Qorbani M., Rafay A., Rana S.M., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju M., Rakovac I., Ranabhat C.L., Rangaswamy T., Ribeiro A.L., Ricci S., Roca A., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy N.K., Ruhago G.M., Sunguya B.F., Saha S., Sahathevan R., Saleh M.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sanchez-Riera L., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schaub M.P., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schutte A.E., Shaddick G., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Shetty B.P., Shin M., Shiri R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silveira D.G.A., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Singh V., Soneji S., Soreide K., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stein M.B., Stranges S., Stroumpoulis K., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabb K.M., Takala J.S., Talongwa R.T., Taye B., Ten Have M., Tuzcu E.M., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Towbin J.A., Traebert J., Truelsen T., Trujillo U., Uchendu U.S., Ukwaja K.N., Uthman O.A., Van Dingenen R., van Donkelaar A., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Wallin M.T., Weichenthal S., White R.A., Williams H.C., Wong J.Q., Woolf A.D., Xavier D., Xu G., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yonga G., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zannad F., Zavala D.E., Zeeb H., Zonies D., Zuhlke L.J., Brown A., Brown J., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang L., Wang H., Naghavi M., Allen C., Barber R.M., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coates M.M., Coggeshall M., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Erskine H.E., Fitzmaurice C., Foreman K., Forouzanfar M.H., Fraser M.S., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Huynh C., Johnson C.O., Kassebaum N.J., Kulikoff X.R., Kutz M., Kyu H.H., Larson H.J., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lind M., Lozano R., Marquez N., Mikesell J., Mokdad A.H., Mooney M.D., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Roth G.A., Sandar L., Silpakit N., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., VanderZanden A., Vollset S.E., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Wolock T., Zoeckler L., Achoki T., Afshin A., Alexander L.T., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Biryukov S., Blore J.D., Cercy K., Chew A., Cohen A.J., Daoud F., Dossou E., Estep K., Flaxman A., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Hancock J., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Liu P.Y., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Misganaw A., Moradi-Lakeh M., Morgan K., Ng M., Pain A., Quame-Amaglo J., Rao P., Reitsma M.B., Shackelford K.A., Sur P., Wagner J.A., Vos T., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Mock C.N., Quistberg D.A., Anderson B.O., Blosser C.D., Futran N.D., Heckbert S.R., Jensen P.N., Montine T.J., Tirschwell D.L., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., Alam N.K.M., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Gouda H.N., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Cooper C., Darby S.C., Deribew A., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Rahimi K., Kinfu Y., Faghmous I.D.A., Langan S.M., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Pearce N., Roberts B., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montero P., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Villalpando S., Duan L., Liu S., Ye P., Liang X., Yu S., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Ajala O.N., Barnighausen T., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., James P., Osman M., Shrime M.G., Fitchett J.R.A., Knudsen A.K., Ellingsen C.L., Krog N.H., Savic M., Hailu A.D., Norheim O.F., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abera S.F., Alasfoor D., Melaku Y.A., Tesfay F.H., Abyu G.Y., Aregay A.F., Betsu B.D., Gebru A.A., Hailu G.B., Yalew A.Z., Yebyo H.G., Abreu D.M.X., Franca E.B., Abu-Raddad L.J., Adelekan A.L., Akinyemi R.O., Ojelabi F.A., Ademi Z., Furst T., Azzopardi P., Cowie B.C., Gibney K.B., MacLachlan J.H., Meretoja A., Alam K., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Szoeke C.E.I., Vijayakumar L., Bohensky M.A., Taylor H.R., Wijeratne T., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Rehm J., Badawi A., Lindsay M.P., Popova S., Agarwal A., Agrawal A., Hotez P.J., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Akanda A.S., Akinyemiju T.F., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Al Lami F.H., Alabed S., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Leigh J., Kemp A.H., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Aldridge R.W., Banerjee A., Tillmann T., Alegretti M.A., Aleman A.V., Cavalleri F., Colistro V., Alemu Z.A., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alvarez Martin E., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Ciobanu L.G., Tessema G.A., Amegah A.K., Kudom A.A., Ameh E.A., Amini H., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Faraon E.J.A., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Arsic Arsenijevic V.S., Barac A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Gankpe F.G., Awasthi A., Bacha U., Bahit M.C., Balakrishnan K., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu A., Basu S., Bayou Y.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Deribe K., Belay H.A., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Jibat T., Manamo W.A.A., Tefera W.M., Yirsaw B.D., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Biroscak B.J., Bello A.K., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D.A., Bernabe E., Beyene A.S., Gishu M.D., Bhala N., Bhalla A., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bin Abdulhak A.A., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Bose D., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brayne C.E.G., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Schottker B., Brewer J.D., Brugha T.S., Buckle G.C., Gosselin R.A., Butt Z.A., Calabria B., Lal A., Lucas R.M., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Carapetis J.R., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Cerda J., Chen W., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Mori R., Chimed-Ochir O., Jiang Y., Takahashi K., Chisumpa V.H., Mapoma C.C., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Colomar M., Cooper L.T., Crump J.A., Poulton R.G., Damsere-Derry J., Danawi H., Refaat A.H., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Massano J., Pedro J.M., Davey G., Davis A.C., Greaves F., Newton J.N., Davitoiu D.V., de Castro E.F., de Jager P., De D., Dellavalle R.P., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Ganguly P., Lal D.K., Zodpey S., Diaz-Torne C., dos Santos K.P.B., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Elyazar I., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Esteghamati A., Hafezi-Nejad N., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Farzadfar F., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Heydarpour P., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Sheikhbahaei S., Yaseri M., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te Ao B.J., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Foigt N., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Piel F.B., Majeed A., Gall S.L., Gambashidze K., Gamkrelidze A., Kereselidze M., Shakh-Nazarova M., Iyer V.J., Gebre T., Geleijnse J.M., Gessner B.D., Ghoshal A.G., Gillum R.F., Mehari A., Gilmour S., Inoue M., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Giroud M., Glaser E., Halasa Y.A., Shepard D.S., Undurraga E.A., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Murthy S., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Norman P.E., Hao Y., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hilderink H.B., Hoek H.W., Tura A.K., Hogg R.S., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htike M.M.T., Hu G., Huang C., Huang H., Huiart L., Husseini A., Huybrechts I., Huynh G., Iburg K.M., Innos K., Jacobs T.A., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Katibeh M., Rajavi Z., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jayatilleke A.U., Prabhakaran D., Jiang G., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Joshi T.K., Kabir Z., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., She J., Shen Z., Zhang H., Kan H., Kant S., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Karletsos D., Karthikeyan G., Naik N., Paul V.K., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Kaul A., Kayibanda J.F., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Parry C.D., Kengne A.P., Matzopoulos R., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khera S., Tavakkoli M., Khoja T.A.M., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kissela B.M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., McGarvey S.T., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kuipers E.J., Kulkarni V.S., Kwan G.F., Rao S.R., Lam H., Lam J.O., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Lansingh V.C., Laryea D.O., Latif A.A., Lawrynowicz A.E.B., Levi M., Li Y., Alhabib S., Lipshultz S.E., Wilkinson J.D., Simard E.P., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Xiao Q., Lo L., Logroscino G., Lunevicius R., Ma S., Machado V.M., Mackay M.T., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Mandisarisa J., Mangalam S., Marcenes W., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Silberberg D.H., Martin G.R., Martinez-Raga J., Marzan M.B., Mason-Jones A.J., McMahon B.J., Mehndiratta M.M., Woldeyohannes S.M., Tedla B.A., Zeleke B.M., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Meretoja T.J., Lallukka T., Mhimbira F.A., Micha R., Mozaff D., Shi P., Singh G.M., Miller T.R., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi A., Mohan V., Mola G.L.D., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Morawska L., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Musa K.I., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Seedat S., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naidoo K.S., Sartorius B., Naldi L., Remuzzi G., Nangia V., Nash D., Nejjari C., Neupane S., Newton C.R., Ngalesoni F.N., Ngirabega J.D., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie Pete P.M., Nomura M., Nyakarahuka L., Ogbo F.A., Ohkubo T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Ozdemir R., Mahesh P.A., Pandian J.D., Pant P.R., Papachristou C., Park E., Park J., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Stokic Pejin L., Pereira D.M., Cortinovis M., Giussani G., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Pillay J.D., Plass D., Platts-Mills J.A., Polinder S., Pope C.A., Qorbani M., Rafay A., Rana S.M., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju M., Rakovac I., Ranabhat C.L., Rangaswamy T., Ribeiro A.L., Ricci S., Roca A., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy N.K., Ruhago G.M., Sunguya B.F., Saha S., Sahathevan R., Saleh M.M., Sanabria J.R., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Sanchez-Riera L., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schaub M.P., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schutte A.E., Shaddick G., Shaheen A., Shahraz S., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Shetty B.P., Shin M., Shiri R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silveira D.G.A., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Singh V., Soneji S., Soreide K., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stathopoulou V., Stein M.B., Stranges S., Stroumpoulis K., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabb K.M., Takala J.S., Talongwa R.T., Taye B., Ten Have M., Tuzcu E.M., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Towbin J.A., Traebert J., Truelsen T., Trujillo U., Uchendu U.S., Ukwaja K.N., Uthman O.A., Van Dingenen R., van Donkelaar A., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Wallin M.T., Weichenthal S., White R.A., Williams H.C., Wong J.Q., Woolf A.D., Xavier D., Xu G., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yonga G., Younis M.Z., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zannad F., Zavala D.E., Zeeb H., Zonies D., Zuhlke L.J., Brown A., Brown J., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang L., Wang H., Naghavi M., Allen C., Barber R.M., Carter A., Casey D.C., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coates M.M., Coggeshall M., Dandona L., Dicker D.J., Erskine H.E., Fitzmaurice C., Foreman K., Forouzanfar M.H., Fraser M.S., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Graetz N., Haagsma J.A., Hay S.I., Huynh C., Johnson C.O., Kassebaum N.J., Kulikoff X.R., Kutz M., Kyu H.H., Larson H.J., Leung J., Lim S.S., Lind M., Lozano R., Marquez N., Mikesell J., Mokdad A.H., Mooney M.D., Nguyen G., Nsoesie E., Pigott D.M., Pinho C., Roth G.A., Sandar L., Silpakit N., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J., Steiner C., Teeple S., Thomas B.A., Troeger C., VanderZanden A., Vollset S.E., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Wolock T., Zoeckler L., Achoki T., Afshin A., Alexander L.T., Anderson G.M., Bell B., Biryukov S., Blore J.D., Cercy K., Chew A., Cohen A.J., Daoud F., Dossou E., Estep K., Flaxman A., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W.W., Hancock J., Kemmer L., Khalil I.A., Liu P.Y., Masiye F., Millear A., Mirarefin M., Misganaw A., Moradi-Lakeh M., Morgan K., Ng M., Pain A., Quame-Amaglo J., Rao P., Reitsma M.B., Shackelford K.A., Sur P., Wagner J.A., Vos T., Lopez A.D., Murray C.J.L., Ellenbogen R.G., Mock C.N., Quistberg D.A., Anderson B.O., Blosser C.D., Futran N.D., Heckbert S.R., Jensen P.N., Montine T.J., Tirschwell D.L., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., Alam N.K.M., Knibbs L.D., Lalloo R., Gouda H.N., McGrath J.J., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Cooper C., Darby S.C., Deribew A., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Rahimi K., Kinfu Y., Faghmous I.D.A., Langan S.M., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Pearce N., Roberts B., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Gomez-Dantes H., Heredia-Pi I.B., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Montero P., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Villalpando S., Duan L., Liu S., Ye P., Liang X., Yu S., Mensah G.A., Salomon J.A., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Ajala O.N., Barnighausen T., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., James P., Osman M., Shrime M.G., Fitchett J.R.A., Knudsen A.K., Ellingsen C.L., Krog N.H., Savic M., Hailu A.D., Norheim O.F., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abera S.F., Alasfoor D., Melaku Y.A., Tesfay F.H., Abyu G.Y., Aregay A.F., Betsu B.D., Gebru A.A., Hailu G.B., Yalew A.Z., Yebyo H.G., Abreu D.M.X., Franca E.B., Abu-Raddad L.J., Adelekan A.L., Akinyemi R.O., Ojelabi F.A., Ademi Z., Furst T., Azzopardi P., Cowie B.C., Gibney K.B., MacLachlan J.H., Meretoja A., Alam K., Colquhoun S.M., Patton G.C., Weintraub R.G., Szoeke C.E.I., Vijayakumar L., Bohensky M.A., Taylor H.R., Wijeratne T., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Agardh E.E., Rehm J., Badawi A., Lindsay M.P., Popova S., Agarwal A., Agrawal A., Hotez P.J., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Akanda A.S., Akinyemiju T.F., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Al Lami F.H., Alabed S., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Leigh J., Kemp A.H., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Aldridge R.W., Banerjee A., Tillmann T., Alegretti M.A., Aleman A.V., Cavalleri F., Colistro V., Alemu Z.A., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Al-Raddadi R., Alsharif U., Alvarez Martin E., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Ciobanu L.G., Tessema G.A., Amegah A.K., Kudom A.A., Ameh E.A., Amini H., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Faraon E.J.A., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Arsic Arsenijevic V.S., Barac A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Gankpe F.G., Awasthi A., Bacha U., Bahit M.C., Balakrishnan K., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barregard L., Petzold M., Barrero L.H., Basu A., Basu S., Bayou Y.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Deribe K., Belay H.A., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Jibat T., Manamo W.A.A., Tefera W.M., Yirsaw B.D., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Biroscak B.J., Bello A.K., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D.A., Bernabe E., Beyene A.S., Gishu M.D., Bhala N., Bhalla A., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Bin Abdulhak A.A., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Bose D., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Brayne C.E.G., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Schottker B., Brewer J.D., Brugha T.S., Buckle G.C., Gosselin R.A., Butt Z.A., Calabria B., Lal A., Lucas R.M., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Carapetis J.R., Cardenas R., Carpenter D.O., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Cerda J., Chen W., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chibueze C.E., Mori R., Chimed-Ochir O., Jiang Y., Takahashi K., Chisumpa V.H., Mapoma C.C., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cirillo M., Colomar M., Cooper L.T., Crump J.A., Poulton R.G., Damsere-Derry J., Danawi H., Refaat A.H., Dargan P.I., das Neves J., Massano J., Pedro J.M., Davey G., Davis A.C., Greaves F., Newton J.N., Davitoiu D.V., de Castro E.F., de Jager P., De D., Dellavalle R.P., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhillon P.K., Ganguly P., Lal D.K., Zodpey S., Diaz-Torne C., dos Santos K.P.B., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Elyazar I., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Eshrati B., Esteghamati A., Hafezi-Nejad N., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Farzadfar F., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Heydarpour P., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Sheikhbahaei S., Yaseri M., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Te Ao B.J., Fernandes J.G., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Foigt N., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franklin R.C., Piel F.B., Majeed A., Gall S.L., Gambashidze K., Gamkrelidze A., Kereselidze M., Shakh-Nazarova M., Iyer V.J., Gebre T., Geleijnse J.M., Gessner B.D., Ghoshal A.G., Gillum R.F., Mehari A., Gilmour S., Inoue M., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Giroud M., Glaser E., Halasa Y.A., Shepard D.S., Undurraga E.A., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Kopec J.A., Murthy S., Pourmalek F., Goto A., Gugnani H.C., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Norman P.E., Hao Y., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hilderink H.B., Hoek H.W., Tura A.K., Hogg R.S., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htike M.M.T., Hu G., Huang C., Huang H., Huiart L., Husseini A., Huybrechts I., Huynh G., Iburg K.M., Innos K., Jacobs T.A., Jacobsen K.H., Jahanmehr N., Katibeh M., Rajavi Z., Jakovljevic M.B., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S.P., Jayatilleke A.U., Prabhakaran D., Jiang G., Jimenez-Corona A., Jonas J.B., Joshi T.K., Kabir Z., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., She J., Shen Z., Zhang H., Kan H., Kant S., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Karletsos D., Karthikeyan G., Naik N., Paul V.K., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Tandon N., Kaul A., Kayibanda J.F., Keiyoro P.N., Lyons R.A., Parry C.D., Kengne A.P., Matzopoulos R., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khera S., Tavakkoli M., Khoja T.A.M., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kissela B.M., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., McGarvey S.T., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kuipers E.J., Kulkarni V.S., Kwan G.F., Rao S.R., Lam H., Lam J.O., Nachega J.B., Tran B.X., Lansingh V.C., Laryea D.O., Latif A.A., Lawrynowicz A.E.B., Levi M., and Li Y.
- Abstract
Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2
- Published
- 2016
34. Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- Author
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Nguhiu P., Shigematsu M., Shin M., Yoon S., Shiri R., Shishani K., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stahl H., Stathopoulou V., Steckling N., Stranges S., Strong M., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabb K.M., Talongwa R.T., Tarawneh M.R., Tavakkoli M., Taye B., Tuzcu E.M., Thakur J., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tsala Dimbuene Z., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Volkow P., Wallin M.T., Weichenthal S., Woolf A.D., Wubshet M., Xu G., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zambrana-Torrelio C., Zapata T., Zonies D., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang L., Lim S.S., Allen K., Dandona L., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Hay S.I., Holmberg M., Kutz M.J., Larson H.J., Lopez A.D., McNellan C.R., Mokdad A.H., Mooney M.D., Naghavi M., Olsen H.E., Pigott D.M., Vos T., Wang H., Achoki T., Afshin A., Allen C., Anderson G.M., Barber R., Bienhoff K.A., Blore J., Brauer M., Carter A., Casey D., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coates M.M., Coggeshall M., Cohen A.J., Deshpande A., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Foreman K., Fraser M., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W., Graetz N., Griswold M., Haagsma J.A., Haakenstad A., Kassebaum N.J., Kemmer L., Kulikoff X.R., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lind M., Liu P.Y., Masiye F., Mirarefin M., Misganaw A., Moradi-Lakeh M., Nguyen G., Pinho C., Rao P.C., Reitsma M.B., Roth G.A., Santomauro D.F., Shackelford K., Silpakit N., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J.D., Steiner C., Sur P., Vollset S.E., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zhao Y., Zhou M., Murray C.J.L., Kotsakis G.A., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., deVeber G.A., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Cooper C., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Weiss D.J., Kinfu Y., Patel V., Langan S.M., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Roberts B., Stockl H., Duan L., Jin Y., Li Y., Liu S., Ye P., Liang X., Azzopardi P., Cowie B.C., Meretoja A., Patton G.C., Alam K., Weintraub R.G., Sawyer S.M., Szoeke C.E.I., Taylor H.R., Lozano R., Barrientos-Gutierrez T., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Heredia-Pi I.B., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Shamah Levy T., Salomon J.A., Binagwaho A., Barnighausen T., Cahill L.E., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Thorne-Lyman A.L., James P., Fitchett J.R.A., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Veerman J.L., Lalloo R., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Aldridge R.W., Banerjee A., Benzian H., Tillmann T., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Melaku Y.A., Abyu G.Y., Bayou T.A., Betsu B.D., Gebru A.A., Hailu G.B., Tekle D.Y., Yalew A.Z., Adebiyi A.O., Owolabi M.O., Akinyemi R.O., Adedeji I.A., Afanvi K.A., Micha R., Shi P., Singh G.M., Badawi A., Agarwal A., Agrawal A., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Jahanmehr N., Ahmed K.Y., Alemu Z.A., Tegegne T.K., Akanda A.S., Akinyemiju T.F., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Leigh J., Mekonnen A.B., Neal B., Alam U., Alasfoor D., AlBuhairan F.S., Alkhateeb M.A., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Rabiee R.H.S., Roy N., Kivipelto M., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Sindi S., Al-Raddadi R., Alvarez E., Alvis-Guzman N., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Amare A.T., Ciobanu L.G., Tessema G.A., Amberbir A., Amegah A.K., Amini H., Furst T., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Del L.C., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Wolfe I., Bernal O.A., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Mesfin Y.M., Bhala N., Bhatt S., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Soneji S., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Krueger H., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Murthy S., Pourmalek F., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Broday D.M., Brugha T.S., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Butt Z.A., van Donkelaar A., Martin R.V., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Caso V., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Cavalleri F., Cecilio P., das Neves J., Massano J., Pedro J.M., Chang H., Chang J., Che X., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chisumpa V.H., Mapoma C.C., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Cirillo M., Piel F.B., Rodriguez A., Cooke G.S., Majeed A., Cooper L.T., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Damtew S.A., Workie S.B., Deribe K., Tefera W., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Temam Shifa G., Dargan P.I., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., Davletov K., de Castro E.F., De Leo D., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Mitchell P.B., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dhillon P.K., Lal D.K., Zodpey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dorsey E.R., Doyle K.E., Kemp A.H., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Verma R.K., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Ebrahimi H., Esteghamati A., Farzadfar F., Hafezi-Nejad N., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Pishgar F., Sheikhbahaei S., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Hassanvand M.S., Khosravi A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Soshnikov S., Eshrati B., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Felicio M.M., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Foigt N., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franca E.B., Franklin R.C., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gessner B.D., Gillum R.F., Mehari A., Ginawi I.A., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Tura A.K., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goto A., Inoue M., Greenwell K.F., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Gyawali B., Iburg K.M., Halasa Y.A., Undurraga E.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Hankey G.J., Haro J.M., Hoek H.W., Skirbekk V., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hu G., Huang H., Idrisov B.T., Kwan G.F., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Islami F., Jacobs T.A., Jacobsen K.H., Jakovljevic M.B., Jansen H.A.F., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Jiang Y., Jibat T., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., She J., Kan H., Kandel A., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Karunapema P., Kaul A., Kayibanda J.F., Keiyoro P.N., Matzopoulos R., Parry C.D., Kengne A.P., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Shey M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim S., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Varakin Y.Y., Kuate Defo B., Kuchenbecker R.S., Kuipers E.J., Kulkarni V.S., Lal A., Lucas R.M., Lam H., Lan Q., Laryea D.O., Latif A.A., Leasher J.L., Leinsalu M., Leung R., Levi M., Linn S., Lipshultz S.E., Wilkinson J.D., Simard E.P., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Lloyd B.K., Lo L., Logroscino G., Lunevicius R., Magdy M., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahdavi M., Malta D.C., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Martinez-Raga J., Mason-Jones A.J., Tedla B.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mensink G.B.M., Meretoja T.J., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Monis J.D., Morawska L., Sun J., Mori R., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Murdoch M.E., Murimira B., Murray J., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Seedat S., Tran B.X., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naidoo K.S., Oladimeji O., Sartorius B., Zegeye E.A., Naldi L., Remuzzi G., Nangia V., Nejjari C., Newton C.R., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie P.M., Nolte S., Osborne R.H., Nomura M., Norheim O.F., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Mahesh P.A., Park E., Park H., Patel T., Patil S.T., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Paudel D., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Pillay J.D., Polinder S., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju M., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Ranganathan K., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Sackey B.B., Saleh M.M., Sanabria J.R., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Savic M., Sawhney M., Schmidhuber J., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schutte A.E., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., Sharma R., Nguhiu P., Shigematsu M., Shin M., Yoon S., Shiri R., Shishani K., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silverberg J.I., Yano Y., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Soreide K., Soriano J.B., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Stahl H., Stathopoulou V., Steckling N., Stranges S., Strong M., Sunguya B.F., Swaminathan S., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabb K.M., Talongwa R.T., Tarawneh M.R., Tavakkoli M., Taye B., Tuzcu E.M., Thakur J., Thomson A.J., Thurston G.D., Tobe-Gai R., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tsala Dimbuene Z., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Uneke C.J., Uthman O.A., Vasankari T., Vasconcelos A.M.N., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vlassov V.V., Volkow P., Wallin M.T., Weichenthal S., Woolf A.D., Wubshet M., Xu G., Yakob B., Yan L.L., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yu C., Zaidi Z., Zaki M.E., Zambrana-Torrelio C., Zapata T., Zonies D., Singh A., Thrift A.G., Wang L., Lim S.S., Allen K., Dandona L., Forouzanfar M.H., Fullman N., Goldberg E.M., Hay S.I., Holmberg M., Kutz M.J., Larson H.J., Lopez A.D., McNellan C.R., Mokdad A.H., Mooney M.D., Naghavi M., Olsen H.E., Pigott D.M., Vos T., Wang H., Achoki T., Afshin A., Allen C., Anderson G.M., Barber R., Bienhoff K.A., Blore J., Brauer M., Carter A., Casey D., Charlson F.J., Chen A.Z., Coates M.M., Coggeshall M., Cohen A.J., Deshpande A., Erskine H.E., Ferrari A.J., Fitzmaurice C., Foreman K., Fraser M., Friedman J., Frostad J., Godwin W., Graetz N., Griswold M., Haagsma J.A., Haakenstad A., Kassebaum N.J., Kemmer L., Kulikoff X.R., Kyu H.H., Leung J., Lind M., Liu P.Y., Masiye F., Mirarefin M., Misganaw A., Moradi-Lakeh M., Nguyen G., Pinho C., Rao P.C., Reitsma M.B., Roth G.A., Santomauro D.F., Shackelford K., Silpakit N., Sligar A., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J.D., Steiner C., Sur P., Vollset S.E., Wanga V., Whiteford H.A., Zhao Y., Zhou M., Murray C.J.L., Kotsakis G.A., Mock C.N., Anderson B.O., Watkins D.A., Bhutta Z.A., Nisar M.I., Akseer N., deVeber G.A., Jeemon P., Dandona R., Kumar G.A., Gething P.W., Bisanzio D., Cooper C., Ali R., Bennett D.A., Jha V., Weiss D.J., Kinfu Y., Patel V., Langan S.M., McKee M., Murthy G.V.S., Roberts B., Stockl H., Duan L., Jin Y., Li Y., Liu S., Ye P., Liang X., Azzopardi P., Cowie B.C., Meretoja A., Patton G.C., Alam K., Weintraub R.G., Sawyer S.M., Szoeke C.E.I., Taylor H.R., Lozano R., Barrientos-Gutierrez T., Campos-Nonato I.R., Campuzano J.C., Heredia-Pi I.B., Montanez Hernandez J.C., Rios Blancas M.J., Servan-Mori E.E., Shamah Levy T., Salomon J.A., Binagwaho A., Barnighausen T., Cahill L.E., Ding E.L., Farvid M.S., Wagner G.R., Thorne-Lyman A.L., James P., Fitchett J.R.A., Abajobir A.A., Knibbs L.D., Veerman J.L., Lalloo R., Gouda H.N., Guo Y., McGrath J.J., Abate K.H., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Abbafati C., Abbas K.M., Abd-Allah F., Abdulle A.M., Abraham B., Abubakar I., Aldridge R.W., Banerjee A., Benzian H., Tillmann T., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Melaku Y.A., Abyu G.Y., Bayou T.A., Betsu B.D., Gebru A.A., Hailu G.B., Tekle D.Y., Yalew A.Z., Adebiyi A.O., Owolabi M.O., Akinyemi R.O., Adedeji I.A., Afanvi K.A., Micha R., Shi P., Singh G.M., Badawi A., Agarwal A., Agrawal A., Ahmad Kiadaliri A., Norrving B., Ahmadieh H., Yaseri M., Jahanmehr N., Ahmed K.Y., Alemu Z.A., Tegegne T.K., Akanda A.S., Akinyemiju T.F., Schwebel D.C., Singh J.A., Al-Aly Z., Driscoll T.R., Leigh J., Mekonnen A.B., Neal B., Alam U., Alasfoor D., AlBuhairan F.S., Alkhateeb M.A., Aldhahri S.F., Altirkawi K.A., Terkawi A.S., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Rabiee R.H.S., Roy N., Kivipelto M., Carrero J.J., Fereshtehnejad S.M., Weiderpass E., Havmoeller R., Sindi S., Al-Raddadi R., Alvarez E., Alvis-Guzman N., Paternina Caicedo A.J., Amare A.T., Ciobanu L.G., Tessema G.A., Amberbir A., Amegah A.K., Amini H., Furst T., Karema C.K., Ammar W., Harb H.L., Amrock S.M., Andersen H.H., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arnlov J., Larsson A., Artaman A., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Atique S., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Bacha U., Balakrishnan K., Barac A., Barker-Collo S.L., Mohammed S., Barrero L.H., Basu S., Del L.C., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Beardsley J., Bedi N., Beghi E., Bejot Y., Sheth K.N., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Santos I.S., Bensenor I.M., Lotufo P.A., Berhane A., Wolfe C.D., Bernabe E., Wolfe I., Bernal O.A., Roba H.S., Beyene A.S., Mesfin Y.M., Bhala N., Bhatt S., Biadgilign S., Bikbov B., Soneji S., Bjertness E., Htet A.S., Bourne R.R.A., Brainin M., Krueger H., Gotay C.C., Kissoon N., Murthy S., Pourmalek F., Brazinova A., Majdan M., Shen J., Breitborde N.J.K., Broday D.M., Brugha T.S., Buchbinder R., Gabbe B., Butt Z.A., van Donkelaar A., Martin R.V., Carabin H., Cardenas R., Caso V., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Catala-Lopez F., Cavalleri F., Cecilio P., das Neves J., Massano J., Pedro J.M., Chang H., Chang J., Che X., Chiang P.P., Chibalabala M., Chisumpa V.H., Mapoma C.C., Choi J.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Cirillo M., Piel F.B., Rodriguez A., Cooke G.S., Majeed A., Cooper L.T., Crump J.A., Derrett S., Poulton R.G., Damtew S.A., Workie S.B., Deribe K., Tefera W., Giref A.Z., Haile D., Temam Shifa G., Dargan P.I., Davis A.C., Newton J.N., Steel N., Davletov K., de Castro E.F., De Leo D., Degenhardt L., Resnikoff S., Mitchell P.B., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dhillon P.K., Lal D.K., Zodpey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dorsey E.R., Doyle K.E., Kemp A.H., Dubey M., Rahman M.H.U., Ram U., Verma R.K., Yadav A.K., Duncan B.B., Kieling C., Schmidt M.I., Ebrahimi H., Esteghamati A., Farzadfar F., Hafezi-Nejad N., Kasaeian A., Parsaeian M., Pishgar F., Sheikhbahaei S., Fahimi S., Malekzadeh R., Roshandel G., Sepanlou S.G., Hassanvand M.S., Khosravi A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Endries A.Y., Ermakov S.P., Soshnikov S., Eshrati B., Farid T.A., Khan A.R., Farinha C.S.E.S., Faro A., Feigin V.L., Felicio M.M., Fernandes J.C., Fischer F., Foigt N., Shiue I., Fowkes F.G.R., Franca E.B., Franklin R.C., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gebre T., Gessner B.D., Gillum R.F., Mehari A., Ginawi I.A., Giroud M., Gishu M.D., Tura A.K., Gona P., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Goto A., Inoue M., Greenwell K.F., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Gyawali B., Iburg K.M., Halasa Y.A., Undurraga E.A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hammami M., Hankey G.J., Haro J.M., Hoek H.W., Skirbekk V., Horino M., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hoy D.G., Hu G., Huang H., Idrisov B.T., Kwan G.F., Kawakami N., Shibuya K., Islami F., Jacobs T.A., Jacobsen K.H., Jakovljevic M.B., Jansen H.A.F., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Jiang Y., Jibat T., Jonas J.B., Kabir Z., Kalkonde Y., Kamal R., Kesavachandran C.N., She J., Kan H., Kandel A., Karch A., Karimkhani C., Karunapema P., Kaul A., Kayibanda J.F., Keiyoro P.N., Matzopoulos R., Parry C.D., Kengne A.P., Wiysonge C.S., Stein D.J., Mayosi B.M., Shey M., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khang Y.H., Won S., Khoja T.A.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C., Kim D., Kim S., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kokubo Y., Kolte D., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M., Varakin Y.Y., Kuate Defo B., Kuchenbecker R.S., Kuipers E.J., Kulkarni V.S., Lal A., Lucas R.M., Lam H., Lan Q., Laryea D.O., Latif A.A., Leasher J.L., Leinsalu M., Leung R., Levi M., Linn S., Lipshultz S.E., Wilkinson J.D., Simard E.P., Liu Y., Phillips M.R., Lloyd B.K., Lo L., Logroscino G., Lunevicius R., Magdy M., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahdavi M., Malta D.C., Meaney P.A., Margolis D.J., Martinez-Raga J., Mason-Jones A.J., Tedla B.A., Memiah P., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mensink G.B.M., Meretoja T.J., Mhimbira F.A., Miller T.R., Mills E.J., Mohammadi A., Monasta L., Montico M., Ronfani L., Monis J.D., Morawska L., Sun J., Mori R., Werdecker A., Mueller U.O., Westerman R., Murdoch M.E., Murimira B., Murray J., Musa K.I., Nachega J.B., Seedat S., Tran B.X., Nagel G., Rothenbacher D., Naidoo K.S., Oladimeji O., Sartorius B., Zegeye E.A., Naldi L., Remuzzi G., Nangia V., Nejjari C., Newton C.R., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguyen Q.L., Nkamedjie P.M., Nolte S., Osborne R.H., Nomura M., Norheim O.F., Obermeyer C.M., Ogbo F.A., Oh I., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Opio J.N., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Mahesh P.A., Park E., Park H., Patel T., Patil S.T., Patten S.B., Tonelli M., Paudel D., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Petzold M., Pillay J.D., Polinder S., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rahman M., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju M., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Ranganathan K., Refaat A.H., Ribeiro A.L., Rojas-Rueda D., Roy A., Sagar R., Satpathy M., Sackey B.B., Saleh M.M., Sanabria J.R., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Savic M., Sawhney M., Schmidhuber J., Schneider I.J.C., Silva D.A.S., Schutte A.E., Shaheen A., Shaikh M.A., and Sharma R.
- Abstract
Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59.3 (95% uncertainty interval 56.8-61.8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85.5 (84.2-86.5) in Iceland to 20.4 (15.4-24.9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0.88) and the MDG index (r2=0.92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0.79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7.9 (IQR 5.0-10.4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10.0 [6.7-13.1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5.5 [2.1-8.9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for
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- 2016
35. Maternal plasma folate impacts differential DNA methylation in an epigenome-wide meta-analysis of newborns
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Joubert, B.R. (Bonnie), Dekker, H.T. (Herman) den, Felix, J.F. (Janine), Bohlin, J. (Jon), Ligthart, S. (Symen), Beckett, E. (Emma), Tiemeier, H.W. (Henning), Meurs, J.B.J. (Joyce) van, Uitterlinden, A.G. (André), Hofman, A. (Albert), Håberg, S.E. (Siri E), Reese, S.E. (Sarah E.), Peters, M.J. (Marjolein), Kulle Andreassen, B. (Bettina), Steegers, E.A.P. (Eric), Nilsen, R.M. (Roy M.), Vollset, S.E. (Stein E.), Midttun, . (Øivind), Ueland, P.M. (Per), Franco, O.H. (Oscar), Dehghan, A. (Abbas), Jongste, J.C. (Johan) de, Wu, M.C. (Michael), Wang, T. (Tianyuan), Peddada, S.D. (Shyamal D.), Jaddoe, V.W.V. (Vincent), Nystad, W. (Wenche), Duijts, L. (Liesbeth), London, S.J. (Stephanie J), Joubert, B.R. (Bonnie), Dekker, H.T. (Herman) den, Felix, J.F. (Janine), Bohlin, J. (Jon), Ligthart, S. (Symen), Beckett, E. (Emma), Tiemeier, H.W. (Henning), Meurs, J.B.J. (Joyce) van, Uitterlinden, A.G. (André), Hofman, A. (Albert), Håberg, S.E. (Siri E), Reese, S.E. (Sarah E.), Peters, M.J. (Marjolein), Kulle Andreassen, B. (Bettina), Steegers, E.A.P. (Eric), Nilsen, R.M. (Roy M.), Vollset, S.E. (Stein E.), Midttun, . (Øivind), Ueland, P.M. (Per), Franco, O.H. (Oscar), Dehghan, A. (Abbas), Jongste, J.C. (Johan) de, Wu, M.C. (Michael), Wang, T. (Tianyuan), Peddada, S.D. (Shyamal D.), Jaddoe, V.W.V. (Vincent), Nystad, W. (Wenche), Duijts, L. (Liesbeth), and London, S.J. (Stephanie J)
- Abstract
Folate is vital for fetal development. Periconceptional folic acid supplementation and food fortification are recommended to prevent neural tube defects. Mechanisms whereby periconceptional folate influences normal development and disease are poorly understood: epigenetics may be involved. We examine the association between maternal plasma folate during pregnancy and epigenome-wide DNA methylation using Illumina" s HumanMethyl450 Beadchip in 1,988 newborns from two European cohorts. Here we report the combined covariate-adjusted results using meta-analysis and employ pathway and gene expression analyses. Four-hundred forty-three CpGs (320 genes) are significantly associated with maternal plasma folate levels during pregnancy (false discovery rate 5%); 48 are significant after Bonferroni correction. Most genes are not known for folate biology, including APC2, GRM8, SLC16A12, OPCML, PRPH, LHX1, KLK4 and PRSS21. Some relate to birth defects other than neural tube defects, neurological functions or varied aspects of embryonic development. These findings may inform how maternal folate impacts the developing epigenome and health outcomes in offspring.
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- 2016
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36. Metabolic mediators of the effects of body-mass index, overweight, and obesity on coronary heart disease and stroke: A pooled analysis of 97 prospective cohorts with 1·8 million participants
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Lu, Y. Hajifathalian, K. Ezzati, M. Woodward, M. Rimm, E.B. Danaei, G. Selmer, R. Strand, B.H. Dobson, A. Hozawa, A. Nozaki, A. Okayama, A. Rodgers, A. Tamakoshi, A. Zhou, B.F. Zhou, B. Yao, C.H. Jiang, C.Q. Gu, D.F. Heng, D. Giles, G.G. Shan, G.L. Whitlock, G. Arima, H. Kim, H.C. Christensen, H. Horibe, H. Maegawa, H. Tanaka, H. Ueshima, H. Zhang, H.Y. Kim, I.S. Suh, I. Fuh, J.L. Lee, J. Woo, J. Xie, J.X. Zhou, J. Hughes, K. Jamrozik, K. Nakachi, K. Sakata, K. Shimamoto, K. Chen, L.Q. Liu, L.S. Hobbs, M. Iida, M. Kagaya, M. Divitini, M.L. Luszcz, M. Nakamura, M. Huang, M.S. Knuiman, M.W. Aoki, N. Norman, P. Sritara, P. Yang, Q.D. Broadhurst, R. Huxley, R. Jackson, R. Norton, R. Ameratunga, S. Ho, S.C. Li, S.C. Jee, S.H. Chew, S.K. Macmahon, S. Choudhury, S.R. Saitoh, S. Yao, S.X. Welborn, T.A. Lam, T.H. Hashimoto, T. Ohkubo, T. Pan, W.-H. Duan, X.F. Fang, X. Wu, X.G. Fang, X.H. Yu, X.H. Li, Y.H. He, Y. Imai, Y. Kita, Y. Kiyohara, Y. Matsutani, Y. Hong, Z. Wu, Z.L. Chen, Z.M. Wu, Z.S. Tang, Z. Li, Z.Z. Parker, E.D. Pereira, M.A. Stevens, J. Panagiotakos, D.B. Pitsavos, C. Attia, J.R. D’este, C.A. Zhang, X. Clays, E. De Bacquer, D.A.O. Van Herck, K. Morrison, H.I. Wang, F. Chuang, S.-Y. Yeh, W.-T. Chen, Z. Smith, M.C. Zhou, M. Wang, W. Zhang, X.-T. Zhao, D. Vollset, S.E. Fuchs, S.C. Fuchs, F.D. Moreira, L.B. Dontas, I.A. Dontas, C.A. Kafatos, A.G. Moschandreas, J. Lanti, M. Menotti, A. Kromhout, D. Jensen, M.K. Overvad, K. Tjonneland, A. Klotsche, J. Wittchen, H.-U. Fischer, S. Hanefeld, M. Schwanebeck, U. Simons, L.A. Simons, J. Bender, R. Matthies, S. Nissinen, A. Tolonen, H.K. Tuomilehto, J. Chaturvedi, N. Fuller, J.H. Soedamah-Muthu, S.S. Kotseva, K. Wood, D.A. Bots, M.L. Moons, K.G.M. Heliovaara, M. Knekt, P.B. Rissanen, H. Ferrie, J.E. Shipley, M.J. Smith, G.D. Johansson, S. Lappas, G. Rosengren, A. Sham, A. Yu, R.H.Y. Hata, J. Ninomiya, T. Hoshide, S. Kario, K. Rastenyte, D. Tamosiunas, A. de Simone, G. Devereux, R.B. Gerdts, E. Colquhoun, D.M. Keech, A.C. Kirby, A.C. Mizuno, K. Nakamura, H. Uchiyama, S. Bassett, J.K. Hodge, A.M. Wilhelmsen, L. Dhaliwal, S.S. Nakamura, Y. Kadota, A. Okamura, T. Sandvei, M.S. Vatten, L.J. Vik, A. Morkedal, B. Romundstad, P.R. Elkind, M.S.V. Gardener, H. Sacco, R.L. Mignano, A. Novo, S. Rizzo, M. Assmann, G. Schulte, H. Lissner, L. Skoog, I. Sundh, V. Marin, A. Medrano, M.J. Hofman, A. Kuningas, M. Stricker, B.H. van der Graaf, Y. Visseren, F.L.J. Lee, J.J.M. Bemelmans, W. de Groot, L.C.P.G.M. de Hollander, E.L. Adachi, H. Hirai, Y. Azizi, F. Hadaegh, F. Khalili, D. Mathiesen, E.B. Njolstad, I. Wilsgaard, T. Can, G. Onat, A. Arnlov, J. Sundstrom, J. Blackburn, H.W. Jacobs, D.R. Averna, M.R. Cefalu, A.B. Noto, D. Concin, H. Nagel, G. Ulmer, H. Krasnow, R.E. Swan, G.E. Kivimaki, M. David Batty, G. Milic, N. Ostojic, M.C. Parapid, B. Geleijnse, J.M. Waterham, E. Feskens, E.J. The Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases Collaboration (BMI Mediated Effects)
- Abstract
Background Body-mass index (BMI) and diabetes have increased worldwide, whereas global average blood pressure and cholesterol have decreased or remained unchanged in the past three decades. We quantified how much of the effects of BMI on coronary heart disease and stroke are mediated through blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose, and how much is independent of these factors. Methods We pooled data from 97 prospective cohort studies that collectively enrolled 1·8 million participants between 1948 and 2005, and that included 57 161 coronary heart disease and 31 093 stroke events. For each cohort we excluded participants who were younger than 18 years, had a BMI of lower than 20 kg/m2, or who had a history of coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) of BMI on coronary heart disease and stroke with and without adjustment for all possible combinations of blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose. We pooled HRs with a random-effects model and calculated the attenuation of excess risk after adjustment for mediators. Findings The HR for each 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was 1·27 (95% CI 1·23-1·31) for coronary heart disease and 1·18 (1·14-1·22) for stroke after adjustment for confounders. Additional adjustment for the three metabolic risk factors reduced the HRs to 1·15 (1·12-1·18) for coronary heart disease and 1·04 (1·01-1·08) for stroke, suggesting that 46% (95% CI 42-50) of the excess risk of BMI for coronary heart disease and 76% (65-91) for stroke is mediated by these factors. Blood pressure was the most important mediator, accounting for 31% (28-35) of the excess risk for coronary heart disease and 65% (56-75) for stroke. The percentage excess risks mediated by these three mediators did not differ significantly between Asian and western cohorts (North America, western Europe, Australia, and New Zealand). Both overweight (BMI ≥25 to
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- 2014
37. Folic Acid Supplementation and Interpregnancy Interval
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Nilsen, R.M., Mastroiacovo, P., Gunnes, N., Alsaker, E.R., Bjorke-Monsen, A.L., Eussen, S.J.P.M., Haugen, M., Johannessen, A., Meltzer, H.M., Stoltenberg, C., Ueland, P.M., Vollset, S.E., Epidemiologie, RS: CAPHRI School for Public Health and Primary Care, and RS: CAPHRI - Nutritional and Molecular Epidemiology
- Abstract
Background Maternal folic acid supplementation between subsequent pregnancies may be important to reduce the risk of low folate status associated with short interpregnancy intervals. We examined how the prevalence of preconception folic acid use for a given pregnancy in Norwegian women varied according to the time interval from the previous pregnancy. Methods Analysis was based on 48 855 pairs of pregnancies with the second pregnancy included in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (birth years 1999-2009). Interpregnancy interval was defined as the time from birth of a child to the conception of the subsequent sibling. Preconception folic acid use was defined as any use of folic acid-containing supplements within the last 4 weeks before the second pregnancy. Results The prevalence of preconception folic acid use was 31%. Among women with a term birth (>= 37 weeks) in the previous pregnancy (92%), those with interpregnancy intervals = 49 months were associated with up to 35% lower prevalence of preconception folic acid use for the second pregnancy, relative to the reference group (13-24 months). The low use in short intervals was mainly attributable to lower proportion of planned pregnancies and fewer women with higher education. Among women with a preterm birth (
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- 2014
38. A prospective study of the immune system activation biomarker neopterin and colorectal cancer risk
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Aleksandrova, K., Chuang, S.C., Boeing, H., Zuo, Huijuan, Tell, G.S., Pischon, T., Jenab, M., Bueno-De-Mesquita, B., Vollset, S.E., Midttun, Øivind, Ueland, P.M., Fedirko, V., Johansson, M., Weiderpass, E., Severi, G., Racine, A., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Kaaks, R., Kühn, Tilman, Tjønneland, A., Overvad, K., Quirós, José R., Jakszyn, P., Sánchez, M.-J, Dorronsoro, M., Chirlaque, M.D., Ardanaz, E., Khaw, Kay T., Wareham, Nicholas J., Travis, Ruth C., Trichopoulou, A., Lagiou, P., Trichopoulos, D., Palli, D., Sieri, S., Tumino, R., Panico, S., May, A.M., Palmqvist, R., Ljuslinder, Ingrid, Kong, S.Y.J., Freisling, H., Gunter, Marc J., Lu, Y., Cross, Amanda J., Riboli, E., Vineis, P., Aleksandrova, K., Chuang, S.C., Boeing, H., Zuo, Huijuan, Tell, G.S., Pischon, T., Jenab, M., Bueno-De-Mesquita, B., Vollset, S.E., Midttun, Øivind, Ueland, P.M., Fedirko, V., Johansson, M., Weiderpass, E., Severi, G., Racine, A., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Kaaks, R., Kühn, Tilman, Tjønneland, A., Overvad, K., Quirós, José R., Jakszyn, P., Sánchez, M.-J, Dorronsoro, M., Chirlaque, M.D., Ardanaz, E., Khaw, Kay T., Wareham, Nicholas J., Travis, Ruth C., Trichopoulou, A., Lagiou, P., Trichopoulos, D., Palli, D., Sieri, S., Tumino, R., Panico, S., May, A.M., Palmqvist, R., Ljuslinder, Ingrid, Kong, S.Y.J., Freisling, H., Gunter, Marc J., Lu, Y., Cross, Amanda J., Riboli, E., and Vineis, P.
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- 2015
39. A prospective study of the immune system activation biomarker neopterin and colorectal cancer risk
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MS MDL 1, Cancer, Epi Kanker Team 1, JC onderzoeksprogramma Kanker, Aleksandrova, K., Chuang, S.C., Boeing, H., Zuo, Huijuan, Tell, G.S., Pischon, T., Jenab, M., Bueno-De-Mesquita, B., Vollset, S.E., Midttun, Øivind, Ueland, P.M., Fedirko, V., Johansson, M., Weiderpass, E., Severi, G., Racine, A., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Kaaks, R., Kühn, Tilman, Tjønneland, A., Overvad, K., Quirós, José R., Jakszyn, P., Sánchez, M.-J, Dorronsoro, M., Chirlaque, M.D., Ardanaz, E., Khaw, Kay T., Wareham, Nicholas J., Travis, Ruth C., Trichopoulou, A., Lagiou, P., Trichopoulos, D., Palli, D., Sieri, S., Tumino, R., Panico, S., May, A.M., Palmqvist, R., Ljuslinder, Ingrid, Kong, S.Y.J., Freisling, H., Gunter, Marc J., Lu, Y., Cross, Amanda J., Riboli, E., Vineis, P., MS MDL 1, Cancer, Epi Kanker Team 1, JC onderzoeksprogramma Kanker, Aleksandrova, K., Chuang, S.C., Boeing, H., Zuo, Huijuan, Tell, G.S., Pischon, T., Jenab, M., Bueno-De-Mesquita, B., Vollset, S.E., Midttun, Øivind, Ueland, P.M., Fedirko, V., Johansson, M., Weiderpass, E., Severi, G., Racine, A., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Kaaks, R., Kühn, Tilman, Tjønneland, A., Overvad, K., Quirós, José R., Jakszyn, P., Sánchez, M.-J, Dorronsoro, M., Chirlaque, M.D., Ardanaz, E., Khaw, Kay T., Wareham, Nicholas J., Travis, Ruth C., Trichopoulou, A., Lagiou, P., Trichopoulos, D., Palli, D., Sieri, S., Tumino, R., Panico, S., May, A.M., Palmqvist, R., Ljuslinder, Ingrid, Kong, S.Y.J., Freisling, H., Gunter, Marc J., Lu, Y., Cross, Amanda J., Riboli, E., and Vineis, P.
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- 2015
40. Effects of folic acid supplementation on overall and site-specific cancer incidence during the randomised trials: meta-analyses of data on 50 000 individuals
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Vollset, S.E., Clarke, R., Lewington, S., Ebbing, M., Halsey, J., Lonn, E., Armitage, J., Manson, J.E., Hankey, G.J., Spence, J.D., Galan, P., Bonaa, K.H., Jamison, R., Gaziano, J.M., Guarino, P., Baron, J.A., Logan, R.F.A., Giovannucci, E.L., den Heijer, M., Ueland, P.M., Bennett, D., Blom, H.J., Collins, R., Peto, R., Internal medicine, Laboratory Medicine, and ICaR - Circulation and metabolism
- Subjects
Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Disease ,Colorectal adenoma ,Placebo ,Folic Acid ,Prostate ,Internal medicine ,Neoplasms ,medicine ,Humans ,Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic ,business.industry ,Incidence (epidemiology) ,Incidence ,Cancer ,food and beverages ,General Medicine ,Middle Aged ,medicine.disease ,Surgery ,medicine.anatomical_structure ,Meta-analysis ,Dietary Supplements ,Carcinogens ,Female ,Skin cancer ,business - Abstract
Summary Background Some countries fortify flour with folic acid to prevent neural tube defects but others do not, partly because of concerns about possible cancer risks. We aimed to assess any effects on site-specific cancer rates in the randomised trials of folic acid supplementation, at doses higher than those from fortification. Methods In these meta-analyses, we sought all trials completed before 2011 that compared folic acid versus placebo, had scheduled treatment duration at least 1 year, included at least 500 participants, and recorded data on cancer incidence. We obtained individual participant datasets that included 49 621 participants in all 13 such trials (ten trials of folic acid for prevention of cardiovascular disease [n=46 969] and three trials in patients with colorectal adenoma [n=2652]). All these trials were evenly randomised. The main outcome was incident cancer (ignoring non-melanoma skin cancer) during the scheduled treatment period (among participants who were still free of cancer). We compared those allocated folic acid with those allocated placebo, and used log-rank analyses to calculate the cancer incidence rate ratio (RR). Findings During a weighted average scheduled treatment duration of 5·2 years, allocation to folic acid quadrupled plasma concentrations of folic acid (57·3 nmol/L for the folic acid groups vs 13·5 nmol/L for the placebo groups), but had no significant effect on overall cancer incidence (1904 cancers in the folic acid groups vs 1809 cancers in the placebo groups, RR 1·06, 95% CI 0·99–1·13, p=0·10). There was no trend towards greater effect with longer treatment. There was no significant heterogeneity between the results of the 13 individual trials (p=0·23), or between the two overall results in the cadiovascular prevention trials and the adenoma trials (p=0·13). Moreover, there was no significant effect of folic acid supplementation on the incidence of cancer of the large intestine, prostate, lung, breast, or any other specific site. Interpretation Folic acid supplementation does not substantially increase or decrease incidence of site-specific cancer during the first 5 years of treatment. Fortification of flour and other cereal products involves doses of folic acid that are, on average, an order of magnitude smaller than the doses used in these trials. Funding British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Food Standards Agency.
- Published
- 2013
41. Plasma cotinine levels and pancreatic cancer in the EPIC cohort study
- Author
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Leenders, M. Chuang, S.-C. Dahm, C.C. Overvad, K. Ueland, P.M. Midttun, O. Vollset, S.E. Tjønneland, A. Halkjær, J. Jenab, M. Clavel-Chapelon, F. Boutron-Ruault, M.-C. Kaaks, R. Canzian, F. Boeing, H. Weikert, C. Trichopoulou, A. Bamia, C. Naska, A. Palli, D. Pala, V. Mattiello, A. Tumino, R. Sacerdote, C. Van Duijnhoven, F.J.B. Peeters, P.H.M. Van Gils, C.H. Lund, E. Rodriguez, L. Duell, E.J. Pérez, M.-J.S. Molina-Montes, E. Castaño, J.M.H. Barricarte, A. Larrañaga, N. Johansen, D. Lindkvist, B. Sund, M. Ye, W. Khaw, K.-T. Wareham, N.J. Michaud, D.S. Riboli, E. Xun, W.W. Allen, N.E. Crowe, F.L. Bueno-De-Mesquita, H.B. Vineis, P.
- Abstract
Smoking is an established risk factor for pancreatic cancer, previously investigated by the means of questionnaires. Using cotinine as a biomarker for tobacco exposure allows more accurate quantitative analyses to be performed. This study on pancreatic cancer, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC cohort), included 146 cases and 146 matched controls. Using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, plasma cotinine levels were analyzed on average 8.0 years before cancer onset (5-95% range: 2.8-12.0 years). The relation between plasma cotinine levels and pancreatic cancer was analyzed with conditional logistic regression for different levels of cotinine in a population of never and current smokers. This was also done for the self-reported number of smoked cigarettes per day at baseline. Every increase of 350 nmol/L of plasma cotinine was found to significantly elevate risk of pancreatic cancer [odds ratio (OR): 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.60]. People with a cotinine level over 1187.8 nmol/L, a level comparable to smoking 17 cigarettes per day, have an elevated risk of pancreatic cancer, compared to people with cotinine levels below 55 nmol/L (OR: 3.66, 95% CI: 1.44-9.26). The results for self-reported smoking at baseline also show an increased risk of pancreatic cancer from cigarette smoking based on questionnaire information. People who smoke more than 30 cigarettes per day showed the highest risk compared to never smokers (OR: 4.15, 95% CI: 1.02-16.42). This study is the first to show that plasma cotinine levels are strongly related to pancreatic cancer. Copyright © 2011 UICC.
- Published
- 2012
42. Plasma vitamins B2, B6, and B12, and related genetic variants as predictors of colorectal cancer risk
- Author
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Eussen, S.J.P.M. Vollset, S.E. Hustad, S. Midttun, Ø. Meyer, K. Fredriksen, Å. Ueland, P.M. Jenab, M. Slimani, N. Boffetta, P. Overvad, K. Thorlacius-Ussing, O. Tjønneland, A. Olsen, A. Clavel-Chapelon, F. Boutron-Ruault, M.-C. Morois, S. Weikert, C. Pischon, T. Linseisen, J. Kaaks, R. Trichopoulou, A. Zilis, D. Katsoulis, M. Palli, D. Pala, V. Vineis, P. Tumino, R. Panico, S. Peeters, P.H.M. Bueno-de-Mesquita, H.B. Van Duijnhoven, F.J.B. Skeie, G. Muñoz, X. Martínez, C. Dorronsoro, M. Ardanaz, E. Navarro, C. Rodríguez, L. VanGuelpen, B. Palmqvist, R. Manjer, J. Ericson, U. Bingham, S. Khaw, K.-T. Norat, T. Riboli, E.
- Abstract
Background: B-vitamins are essential for one-carbon metabolism and have been linked to colorectal cancer. Although associations with folate have frequently been studied, studies on other plasma vitamins B2, B6, and B12 and colorectal cancer are scarce or inconclusive. Methods: We carried out a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, including 1,365 incident colorectal cancer cases and 2,319 controls matched for study center, age, and sex.We measured the sum of B2 species riboflavin and flavin mononucleotide, and the sum of B6 species pyridoxal 5′-phosphate, pyridoxal, and 4-pyridoxic acid as indicators for vitamin B2 and B6 status, as well as vitamin B12 in plasma samples collected at baseline. In addition, we determined eight polymorphisms related to one-carbon metabolism. Relative risks for colorectal cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for smoking, education, physical activity, body mass index, alcohol consumption, and intakes of fiber and red and processed meat. Results: The relative risks comparing highest to lowest quintile were 0.71 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.56-0.91; Ptrend = 0.02] for vitamin B2, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.53-0.87; Ptrend (0.001) for vitamin B6, and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.80-1.29; Ptrend = 0.19) for vitamin B12. The associations for vitamin B6 were stronger in males who consumed ≥30 g alcohol/day. The polymorphisms were not associated with colorectal cancer. Conclusions: Higher plasma concentrations of vitamins B2 and B6 are associated with a lower colorectal cancer risk. Impact: This European population-based study is the first to indicate that vitamin B2 is inversely associated with colorectal cancer, and is in agreement with previously suggested inverse associations of vitamin B6 with colorectal cancer. ©2010 AACR.
- Published
- 2010
43. Two distinct aetiologies of cardia cancer, evidence from premorbid serological markers of gastric atrophy and Helicobacter pylori status
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Hansen, S., Vollset, S.E., Derakhshan, M.H., Fyfe, V., Melby, K.K., Aase, S., Jellum, E., and McColl, K.E.L.
- Subjects
RC0254 ,otorhinolaryngologic diseases ,neoplasms ,digestive system ,digestive system diseases ,RC - Abstract
Background: Non-cardia gastric adenocarcinoma is positively associated with Helicobacter pylori infection\ud and atrophic gastritis. The role of H pylori infection and atrophic gastritis in cardia cancer is unclear.\ud Aim: To compare cardia versus non-cardia cancer with respect to the premorbid state of the stomach.\ud Methods: Nested case–control study. To each of 129 non-cardia and 44 cardia cancers, three controls were\ud matched. Serum collected a median of 11.9 years before the diagnosis of cancer was tested for anti-H pylori\ud antibodies, pepsinogen I:II and gastrin.\ud Results: Non-cardia cancer was positively associated with H pylori (OR 4.75, 95% CI 2.56 to 8.81) and\ud gastric atrophy (pepsinogen I:II ,2.5; OR 4.47, 95% CI 2.71 to 7.37). The diffuse and intestinal histological\ud subtypes of non-cardia cancer were of similar proportions and both showed a positive association with\ud H pylori and atrophy. Cardia cancer was negatively associated with H pylori (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.12 to\ud 0.59), but H pylori-positive cardia cancer showed an association with gastric atrophy (OR 3.33, 95% CI 1.06\ud to 10.5). The predominant histological subtype of cardia cancer was intestinal and was not associated with\ud gastric atrophy compared with the diffuse subtype ((OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.19 to 2.79) vs (OR 3.46, 95% CI 0.32\ud to 37.5)). Cardia cancer in patients with atrophy had an intestinal: diffuse ratio (1:1) similar to non-cardia\ud cancer (1.9:1), whereas cardia cancers in patients without atrophy were predominantly intestinal (7:1).\ud Conclusion: These findings indicate two aetiologies of cardia cancer, one associated with H pylori atrophic\ud gastritis, resembling non-cardia cancer, and the other associated with non-atrophic gastric mucosa,\ud resembling oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Serological markers of gastric atrophy may provide the key to\ud determining gastric versus oesophageal origin of cardia cancer.
- Published
- 2007
44. Geographical and ethnic variation of the 677C > T allele of 5,10 methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR): findings from over 7000 newborns from 16 areas world wide: findings from over 7000 newborns from 16 areas world wide
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Wilcken, B., Bamforth, F., Li, Z., Zhu, H., Ritvanen, A., Redlund, M., Stoll, C., Alembik, Y., Dott, B., Czeizel, A.E., Gelman-Kohan, Z., Scarano, G., Bianca, S., Ettore, G., Tenconi, R., Bellato, S., Scala, I., Mutchinick, O.M., Lopez, M.A., de Walle, Hermien, Hofstra, Robert, Joutchenko, L., Kavteladze, L., Bermejo, E., Martinez-Frias, M.L., Gallagher, M., Erickson, J.D., Vollset, S.E., Mastroiacovo, P., Andria, G., Botto, L.D., Scala, [No Value], and Reproductive Origins of Adult Health and Disease (ROAHD)
- Subjects
C677T MUTATION ,SPINA-BIFIDA ,NEURAL-TUBE DEFECTS ,MATERNAL RISK-FACTORS ,DOWN-SYNDROME ,BINOMIAL PROPORTION ,HIGH-PREVALENCE ,FOLATE METABOLISM ,THERMOLABILE METHYLENETETRAHYDROFOLATE REDUCTASE ,POLYMORPHISMS - Published
- 2003
45. North-south gradients in plasma concentrations of B-vitamins and other components of one-carbon metabolism in Western Europe: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study
- Author
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Eussen, S.J., Nilsen, R.M., Midttun, O., Hustad, S., N, I.J., Meyer, K., Fredriksen, A., Ulvik, A., Ueland, P.M., Brennan, P., Johansson, M., Bueno-de-Mesquita, B., Vineis, P., Chuang, S.C., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Dossus, L., Perquier, F., Overvad, K., Teucher, B., Grote, V.A., Trichopoulou, A., Adarakis, G., Plada, M., Sieri, S., Tumino, R., Magistris, M.S. de, Ros, M.M., Peeters, P.H.M., Redondo, M.L., Zamora-Ros, R., Chirlaque, M.D., Ardanaz, E., Sonestedt, E., Ericson, U., Schneede, J., Guelpen, B. van, Wark, P.A., Gallo, V., Norat, T., Riboli, E., Vollset, S.E., Eussen, S.J., Nilsen, R.M., Midttun, O., Hustad, S., N, I.J., Meyer, K., Fredriksen, A., Ulvik, A., Ueland, P.M., Brennan, P., Johansson, M., Bueno-de-Mesquita, B., Vineis, P., Chuang, S.C., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Dossus, L., Perquier, F., Overvad, K., Teucher, B., Grote, V.A., Trichopoulou, A., Adarakis, G., Plada, M., Sieri, S., Tumino, R., Magistris, M.S. de, Ros, M.M., Peeters, P.H.M., Redondo, M.L., Zamora-Ros, R., Chirlaque, M.D., Ardanaz, E., Sonestedt, E., Ericson, U., Schneede, J., Guelpen, B. van, Wark, P.A., Gallo, V., Norat, T., Riboli, E., and Vollset, S.E.
- Abstract
Item does not contain fulltext, Different lifestyle patterns across Europe may influence plasma concentrations of B-vitamins and one-carbon metabolites and their relation to chronic disease. Comparison of published data on one-carbon metabolites in Western European regions is difficult due to differences in sampling procedures and analytical methods between studies. The present study aimed, to compare plasma concentrations of one-carbon metabolites in Western European regions with one laboratory performing all biochemical analyses. We performed the present study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort among 5446 presumptively healthy individuals. Quantile regression was used to compare sex-specific median concentrations between Northern (Denmark and Sweden), Central (France, Germany, The Netherlands and United Kingdom) and Southern (Greece, Spain and Italy) European regions. The lowest folate concentrations were observed in Northern Europe (men, 10.4 nmol/l; women, 10.7 nmol/l) and highest concentrations in Central Europe. Cobalamin concentrations were slightly higher in Northern Europe (men, 330 pmol/l; women, 352 pmol/l) compared with Central and Southern Europe, but did not show a clear north-south gradient. Vitamin B(2) concentrations were highest in Northern Europe (men, 22.2 nmol/l; women, 26.0 nmol/l) and decreased towards Southern Europe (P trend< 0.001). Vitamin B(6) concentrations were highest in Central Europe in men (77.3 nmol/l) and highest in the North among women (70.4 nmol/l), with decreasing concentrations towards Southern Europe in women (P trend< 0.001). In men, concentrations of serine, glycine and sarcosine increased from the north to south. In women, sarcosine increased from Northern to Southern Europe. These findings may provide relevant information for the study of regional differences of chronic disease incidence in association with lifestyle.
- Published
- 2013
46. Nort-South gradients in plasma concentrations of B-vitamins and other components of one-carbon metabolism in Western Europe: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study
- Author
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Eussen, S.J.P.M., Nilsen, R.M., Midttun, O., Hustad, S., IJssenagger, N., Meyer, K., Fredriksen, A., Ulvik, A., Ueland, P.M., Brennan, P., Johansson, M., Bueno-de-Mesquita, B., Vineis, P., Chuang, S.C., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Dossus, L., Perquier, F., Overvad, K., Teucher, B., Grote, V.A., Trichopoulou, A., Adarakis, G., Plada, M., Sieri, S., Tumino, R., Santucci de Magistris, M., Ros, M.M., Peeters, P.H.M., Redondo, M.L., Zamora-Ros, R., Chirlaque, M.D., Ardanaz, E., Sonestedt, E., Ericson, U., Schneede, J., Guelpen, B., Wark, P.A., Gallo, V., Norat, T., Riboli, E., Vollset, S.E., Eussen, S.J.P.M., Nilsen, R.M., Midttun, O., Hustad, S., IJssenagger, N., Meyer, K., Fredriksen, A., Ulvik, A., Ueland, P.M., Brennan, P., Johansson, M., Bueno-de-Mesquita, B., Vineis, P., Chuang, S.C., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Dossus, L., Perquier, F., Overvad, K., Teucher, B., Grote, V.A., Trichopoulou, A., Adarakis, G., Plada, M., Sieri, S., Tumino, R., Santucci de Magistris, M., Ros, M.M., Peeters, P.H.M., Redondo, M.L., Zamora-Ros, R., Chirlaque, M.D., Ardanaz, E., Sonestedt, E., Ericson, U., Schneede, J., Guelpen, B., Wark, P.A., Gallo, V., Norat, T., Riboli, E., and Vollset, S.E.
- Abstract
Different lifestyle patterns across Europe may influence plasma concentrations of B-vitamins and one-carbon metabolites and their relation to chronic disease. Comparison of published data on one-carbon metabolites in Western European regions is difficult due to differences in sampling procedures and analytical methods between studies. The present study aimed, to compare plasma concentrations of one-carbon metabolites in Western European regions with one laboratory performing all biochemical analyses. We performed the present study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort among 5446 presumptively healthy individuals. Quantile regression was used to compare sex-specific median concentrations between Northern (Denmark and Sweden), Central (France, Germany, The Netherlands and United Kingdom) and Southern (Greece, Spain and Italy) European regions. The lowest folate concentrations were observed in Northern Europe (men, 10·4 nmol/l; women, 10·7 nmol/l) and highest concentrations in Central Europe. Cobalamin concentrations were slightly higher in Northern Europe (men, 330 pmol/l; women, 352 pmol/l) compared with Central and Southern Europe, but did not show a clear north–south gradient. Vitamin B2 concentrations were highest in Northern Europe (men, 22·2 nmol/l; women, 26·0 nmol/l) and decreased towards Southern Europe (P trend <0·001). Vitamin B6 concentrations were highest in Central Europe in men (77·3 nmol/l) and highest in the North among women (70·4 nmol/l), with decreasing concentrations towards Southern Europe in women (P trend <0·001). In men, concentrations of serine, glycine and sarcosine increased from the north to south. In women, sarcosine increased from Northern to Southern Europe. These findings may provide relevant information for the study of regional differences of chronic disease incidence in association with lifestyle.
- Published
- 2013
47. Gastric cancer and Helicobacter pylori: a combined analysis of 12 case control studies nested within prospective cohorts
- Author
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Webb, P.M., Law, M., Varghese, C., Forman, D., Yuan, J.M., Yu, M., Ross, R., Limberg, P.J., Mark, S.D., Taylor, P.R., Dawsey, S.M., Qiao, Y.L., Aromaa, A., Knekt, P., Kosunen, T.U., Heinonen, O.P., Virtamo, J., Tulinius, H., Watanabe, Y., Ozasa, K., Kurata, J.H., Hansen, S., Melby, K.K., Aase, S., Jellum, E., Vollset, S.E., Siman, J.H., Forsgren, A., Berglund, G., Floren, C.H., Lin, J.T., Chen, C.J., Wald, N.J., Parsonnet, J., Friedman, G.D., Blaser, M.J., Nomura, A., and Stemmermann, G.N.
- Abstract
BACKGROUND: The magnitude of the association\ud between Helicobacter pylori and\ud incidence of gastric cancer is unclear. H\ud pylori infection and the circulating antibody\ud response can be lost with development\ud of cancer; thus retrospective studies\ud are subject to bias resulting from classifi-\ud cation of cases as H pylori negative when\ud they were infected in the past.\ud AIMS: To combine data from all case control\ud studies nested within prospective\ud cohorts to assess more reliably the relative\ud risk of gastric cancer associated with H\ud pylori infection.To investigate variation in\ud relative risk by age, sex, cancer type and\ud subsite, and interval between blood sampling\ud and cancer diagnosis.\ud METHODS: Studies were eligible if blood\ud samples for H pylori serology were collected\ud before diagnosis of gastric cancer in\ud cases. Identified published studies and two\ud unpublished studies were included. Individual\ud subject data were obtained for\ud each. Matched odds ratios (ORs) and 95%\ud confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated\ud for the association between H pylori\ud and gastric cancer.\ud RESULTS: Twelve studies with 1228 gastric\ud cancer cases were considered. The association\ud with H pylori was restricted to noncardia\ud cancers (OR 3.0; 95% CI 2.3–3.8)\ud and was stronger when blood samples for\ud H pylori serology were collected 10+ years\ud before cancer diagnosis (5.9; 3.4–10.3). H\ud pylori infection was not associated with an\ud altered overall risk of cardia cancer (1.0;\ud 0.7–1.4).\ud CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that\ud 5.9 is the best estimate of the relative risk\ud of non-cardia cancer associated with H\ud pylori infection and that H pylori does not\ud increase the risk of cardia cancer. They\ud also support the idea that when H pylori\ud status is assessed close to cancer diagnosis,\ud the magnitude of the non-cardia\ud association may be underestimated.
- Published
- 2001
48. Plasma cotinine levels and pancreatic cancer in the EPIC cohort study
- Author
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Leenders, M., Chuang, S.C., Dahm, C.C., Overvad, K., Ueland, P.M., Midttun, O., Vollset, S.E., Tjonneland, A., Halkjaer, J., Jenab, M., Clavel-Chapelon, F., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Kaaks, R., Canzian, F., Boeing, H., Weikert, C., Trichopoulou, A., Bamia, C., Naska, A., Palli, D., Pala, V., Mattiello, A., Tumino, R., Sacerdote, C., Duijnhoven, F.J.B. van, Peeters, P.H.M., Gils, C.H. van, Lund, E., Rodriguez, L., Duell, E.J., Perez, M.J., Molina-Montes, E., Castano, J.M., Barricarte, A., Larrañaga, N., Johansen, D., Lindkvist, B., Sund, M., Ye, W., Khaw, K.T., Wareham, N.J., Michaud, D.S., Riboli, E., Xun, W.W., Allen, N.E., Crowe, F.L., Bueno-De-Mesquita, H.B., Vineis, P., Leenders, M., Chuang, S.C., Dahm, C.C., Overvad, K., Ueland, P.M., Midttun, O., Vollset, S.E., Tjonneland, A., Halkjaer, J., Jenab, M., Clavel-Chapelon, F., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Kaaks, R., Canzian, F., Boeing, H., Weikert, C., Trichopoulou, A., Bamia, C., Naska, A., Palli, D., Pala, V., Mattiello, A., Tumino, R., Sacerdote, C., Duijnhoven, F.J.B. van, Peeters, P.H.M., Gils, C.H. van, Lund, E., Rodriguez, L., Duell, E.J., Perez, M.J., Molina-Montes, E., Castano, J.M., Barricarte, A., Larrañaga, N., Johansen, D., Lindkvist, B., Sund, M., Ye, W., Khaw, K.T., Wareham, N.J., Michaud, D.S., Riboli, E., Xun, W.W., Allen, N.E., Crowe, F.L., Bueno-De-Mesquita, H.B., and Vineis, P.
- Abstract
Item does not contain fulltext, Smoking is an established risk factor for pancreatic cancer, previously investigated by the means of questionnaires. Using cotinine as a biomarker for tobacco exposure allows more accurate quantitative analyses to be performed. This study on pancreatic cancer, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC cohort), included 146 cases and 146 matched controls. Using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, plasma cotinine levels were analyzed on average 8.0 years before cancer onset (5-95% range: 2.8-12.0 years). The relation between plasma cotinine levels and pancreatic cancer was analyzed with conditional logistic regression for different levels of cotinine in a population of never and current smokers. This was also done for the self-reported number of smoked cigarettes per day at baseline. Every increase of 350 nmol/L of plasma cotinine was found to significantly elevate risk of pancreatic cancer [odds ratio (OR): 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.60]. People with a cotinine level over 1187.8 nmol/L, a level comparable to smoking 17 cigarettes per day, have an elevated risk of pancreatic cancer, compared to people with cotinine levels below 55 nmol/L (OR: 3.66, 95% CI: 1.44-9.26). The results for self-reported smoking at baseline also show an increased risk of pancreatic cancer from cigarette smoking based on questionnaire information. People who smoke more than 30 cigarettes per day showed the highest risk compared to never smokers (OR: 4.15, 95% CI: 1.02-16.42). This study is the first to show that plasma cotinine levels are strongly related to pancreatic cancer.
- Published
- 2012
49. Biomarkers related to one-carbon metabolism as potential risk factors for distal colorectal adenomas
- Author
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Vogel, S. de, Schneede, J., Ueland, P.M., Vollset, S.E., Meyer, K., Fredriksen, A., Midttun, O., Bjorge, T., Kampman, E., Bretthauer, M., Hoff, G., Vogel, S. de, Schneede, J., Ueland, P.M., Vollset, S.E., Meyer, K., Fredriksen, A., Midttun, O., Bjorge, T., Kampman, E., Bretthauer, M., and Hoff, G.
- Abstract
Item does not contain fulltext, BACKGROUND: Efficient one-carbon metabolism, which requires adequate supply of methyl group donors and B-vitamins, may protect against colorectal carcinogenesis. However, plasma folate and vitamins B2 and B12 have inconsistently been associated with colorectal cancer risk, and there have been no previous studies relating plasma concentrations of methionine, choline, and betaine to this outcome. METHODS: This study comprised 10,601 individuals, 50 to 64 years of age, participating in the Norwegian Colorectal Cancer Prevention (NORCCAP) screening study. Using logistic regression analyses, we crosssectionally investigated associations between distal colorectal adenoma occurrence-potential precursor lesions of colorectal carcinomas-and plasma concentrations of methyl group donors and B-vitamins, and polymorphisms of genes related to one-carbon metabolism. RESULTS: Screening revealed 1,809 subjects (17.1%) with at least one adenoma. The occurrence of high-risk adenomas (observed in 421 subjects) was inversely associated with plasma concentrations of methionine (highest versus lowest quartile: odds ratio (OR) = 0.61; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.45-0.83), betaine: OR = 0.74; 95% CI = 0.54-1.02, the vitamin B2 form flavin-mononucleotide (FMN): OR = 0.65; 95% CI = 0.49-0.88, and the vitamin B6 form pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP): OR = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.51-0.95, but not with folate, choline, vitamin B12 concentrations, or with the studied polymorphisms. High methionine concentration in combination with high vitamin B2 or B6 concentrations was associated with lower occurrence of high-risk adenomas compared with these factors individually. CONCLUSIONS: High plasma concentrations of methionine and betaine, and vitamins B2 and B6 may reduce risk of developing colorectal adenomas. IMPACT: In addition to B-vitamins, methyl group donors such as methionine and betaine may play a role in colorectal carcinogenesis.
- Published
- 2011
50. Vitamins B2 and B6 and genetic polymorphisms related to one-carbon metabolism as risk factors for gastric adenocarcinoma in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition.
- Author
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Eussen, S.J., Vollset, S.E., Hustad, S., Midttun, O., Meyer, K., Fredriksen, A., Ueland, P.M., Jenab, M., Slimani, N., Ferrari, P., Agudo, A., Sala, N., Capella, G., Giudice, G. Del, Palli, D., Boeing, H., Weikert, C., Bueno-De-Mesquita, H.B., Buchner, F.L., Carneiro, F., Berrino, F., Vineis, P., Tumino, R., Panico, S., Berglund, G., Manjer, J., Stenling, R., Hallmans, G., Martinez, C., Arrizola, L., Barricarte, A., Navarro, C, Rodriguez, L., Bingham, S., Linseisen, J., Kaaks, R., Overvad, K., Tjonneland, A., Peeters, P.H.M., Numans, M.E., Clavel-Chapelon, F., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Morois, S., Trichopoulou, A., Lund, E., Plebani, M., Riboli, E., Gonzalez, C.A., Eussen, S.J., Vollset, S.E., Hustad, S., Midttun, O., Meyer, K., Fredriksen, A., Ueland, P.M., Jenab, M., Slimani, N., Ferrari, P., Agudo, A., Sala, N., Capella, G., Giudice, G. Del, Palli, D., Boeing, H., Weikert, C., Bueno-De-Mesquita, H.B., Buchner, F.L., Carneiro, F., Berrino, F., Vineis, P., Tumino, R., Panico, S., Berglund, G., Manjer, J., Stenling, R., Hallmans, G., Martinez, C., Arrizola, L., Barricarte, A., Navarro, C, Rodriguez, L., Bingham, S., Linseisen, J., Kaaks, R., Overvad, K., Tjonneland, A., Peeters, P.H.M., Numans, M.E., Clavel-Chapelon, F., Boutron-Ruault, M.C., Morois, S., Trichopoulou, A., Lund, E., Plebani, M., Riboli, E., and Gonzalez, C.A.
- Abstract
1 januari 2010, Contains fulltext : 87498.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access), B vitamins and polymorphisms in genes coding for enzymes involved in one-carbon metabolism may affect DNA synthesis and methylation and thereby be implicated in carcinogenesis. Previous data on vitamins B2 and B6 and genetic polymorphisms other than those involving MTHFR as risk factors for gastric cancer (GC) are sparse and inconsistent. In this case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, cases (n = 235) and controls (n = 601) were matched for study center, age, sex, and time of blood sampling. B2 and B6 species were measured in plasma, and the sum of riboflavin and flavin mononucleotide was used as the main exposure variable for vitamin B2 status, whereas the sum of pyridoxal 5'-phosphate, pyridoxal, and 4-pyridoxic acid was used to define vitamin B6 status. In addition, we determined eight polymorphisms related to one-carbon metabolism. Relative risks for GC risk were calculated with conditional logistic regression, adjusted for Helicobacter pylori infection status and smoking status. Adjusted relative risks per quartile (95% confidence interval, P(trend)) were 0.85 (0.72-1.01, 0.06) for vitamin B2 and 0.78 (0.65-0.93, <0.01) for vitamin B6. Both relations were stronger in individuals with severe chronic atrophic gastritis. The polymorphisms were not associated with GC risk and did not modify the observed vitamin-cancer associations. In summary, results from this large European cohort study showed an inverse association between vitamin B2 and GC risk, which is borderline significant, and a significant inverse association between vitamin B6 and GC risk.
- Published
- 2010
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