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Meta-analysis of receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-curve data is often done with fixed-effects models, which suffer many shortcomings. Some random-effects models have been proposed to execute a meta-analysis of ROC-curve data, but these models are not often used in practice. Straightforward modeling techniques for multivariate random-effects meta-analysis of ROC-curve data are needed. The 1st aim of this article is to present a practical method that addresses the drawbacks of the fixed-effects summary ROC (SROC) method of Littenberg and Moses. Sensitivities and specificities are analyzed simultaneously using a bivariate random-effects model. The 2nd aim is to show that other SROC curves can also be derived from the bivariate model through different characterizations of the estimated bivariate normal distribution. Thereby the authors show that the bivariate random-effects approach not only extends the SROC approach but also provides a unifying framework for other approaches. The authors bring the statistical meta-analysis of ROC-curve data back into a framework of relatively standard multivariate meta-analysis with random effects. The analyses were carried out using the software package SAS (Proc NLMIXED). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chronic illness not only affects the life of those suffering from Huntington's disease but also threatens the quality of life (QOL) of their spouses. In this study, we focus on Huntington's disease (HD). The impact of HD on the QOL of spouses has been hardly studied from a behavioral medicine or health psychology perspective. We hypothesize that spouses' illness perceptions and coping mechanisms will contribute significantly to the prediction of their QOL. Illness perceptions, coping mechanisms, and the QOL of 90 spouses of patients with HD were assessed by means of the Illness Perception Questionnaire, the COPE, and the Medical Outcome Study 36-item Short Form Health Survey, respectively. After controlling for demographic and illness-related variables, coping mechanisms explained a significant amount of variance of spouses' role functioning. Given our results, more empirical and longitudinal research is justified on coping mechanisms and illness perceptions of spouses living with Huntington's disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: An increased risk of breast cancer for relatives of breast cancer patients has been demonstrated in many studies, and having a relative diagnosed with breast cancer at an early age is an indication for breast cancer screening. This indication has been derived from estimates based on data from cancer-prone families or from BRCA1/2 mutation families, and might be biased because BRCA1/2 mutations explain only a small proportion of the familial clustering of breast cancer. The aim of the current study was to determine the predictive value of a family history of cancer with regard to early onset of female breast cancer in a population based setting.Methods: An unselected sample of 1,987 women with and without breast cancer was studied with regard to the age of diagnosis of breast cancer.Results: The risk of early-onset breast cancer was increased when there were: (1) at least 2 cases of female breast cancer in first-degree relatives (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.09; 95% CI: 128-7.44), (2) at least 2 cases of female breast cancer in first or second-degree relatives under the age of 50 (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.36; 95% CI: 1.12-10.08), (3) at least 1 case of female breast cancer under the age of 40 in a first- or second-degree relative (yes/no; HR at age 30: 2.06; 95% CI: 0.83-5.12) and (4) any case of bilateral breast cancer (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.47; 95%: 1.33-9.05). The positive predictive value of having 2 or more of these characteristics was 13% for breast cancer before the age of 70, 11% for breast cancer before the age of 50, and 1% for breast cancer before the age of 30.Conclusion: Applying family history related criteria in an unselected population could result in the screening of many women who will not develop breast cancer at an early age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we propose a new approach to the problem of dynamic prediction of survival data in the presence of competing risks as an extension of the landmark model for ordinary survival data. The key feature of our method is the introduction of dynamic pseudo-observations constructed from the prediction probabilities at different landmark prediction times. They specifically address the issue of estimating covariate effects directly on the cumulative incidence scale in competing risks. A flexible generalized linear model based on these dynamic pseudo-observations and a generalized estimation equations approach to estimate the baseline and covariate effects will result in the desired dynamic predictions and robust standard errors. Our approach has a number of attractive features. It focuses directly on the prediction probabilities of interest, avoiding in this way complex modeling of cause-specific hazards or subdistribution hazards. As a result, it is robust against departures from these omnibus models. From a computational point of view an advantage of our approach is that it can be fitted with existing statistical software and that a variety of link functions and regression models can be considered, once the dynamic pseudo-observations have been estimated. We illustrate our approach on a real data set of chronic myeloid leukemia patients after bone marrow transplantation., (© 2013, The International Biometric Society.)

We propose an extension of the landmark model for ordinary survival data as a new approach to the problem of dynamic prediction in competing risks with time-dependent covariates. We fix a set of landmark time points tLM within the follow-up interval. For each of these landmark time points tLM , we create a landmark data set by selecting individuals at risk at tLM ; we fix the value of the time-dependent covariate in each landmark data set at tLM . We assume Cox proportional hazard models for the cause-specific hazards and consider smoothing the (possibly) time-dependent effect of the covariate for the different landmark data sets. Fitting this model is possible within the standard statistical software. We illustrate the features of the landmark modelling on a real data set on bone marrow transplantation., (Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

We used human fetal bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (hfMSCs) differentiating towards chondrocytes as an alternative model for the human growth plate (GP). Our aims were to study gene expression patterns associated with chondrogenic differentiation to assess whether chondrocytes derived from hfMSCs are a suitable model for studying the development and maturation of the GP. hfMSCs efficiently formed hyaline cartilage in a pellet culture in the presence of TGFβ3 and BMP6. Microarray and principal component analysis were applied to study gene expression profiles during chondrogenic differentiation. A set of 232 genes was found to correlate with in vitro cartilage formation. Several identified genes are known to be involved in cartilage formation and validate the robustness of the differentiating hfMSC model. KEGG pathway analysis using the 232 genes revealed 9 significant signaling pathways correlated with cartilage formation. To determine the progression of growth plate cartilage formation, we compared the gene expression profile of differentiating hfMSCs with previously established expression profiles of epiphyseal GP cartilage. As differentiation towards chondrocytes proceeds, hfMSCs gradually obtain a gene expression profile resembling epiphyseal GP cartilage. We visualized the differences in gene expression profiles as protein interaction clusters and identified many protein clusters that are activated during the early chondrogenic differentiation of hfMSCs showing the potential of this system to study GP development.

Objective: Standard methods for linkage analysis ignore the phenotype of the parents when they are not genotyped. However, this information can be useful for gene mapping. In this paper we propose methods for age at onset genetic linkage analysis in sibling pairs, taking into account parental age at onset., Methods: Two new score statistics are derived, one from an additive gamma frailty model and one from a log-normal frailty model. The score statistics are classical non-parametric linkage (NPL) statistics weighted by a function of the age at onset of the four family members. The weight depends on information from registries (age-specific incidences) and family studies (sib-sib and father-mother correlation)., Results: In order to investigate how age at onset of sibs and their parents affect the information for linkage analysis the weight functions were studied for rare and common disease models, realistic models for breast cancer and human lifespan. We studied the performance of the weighted NPL methods by simulations. As illustration, the score statistics were applied to the GAW12 data. The results show that it is useful to include parental age at onset information in genetic linkage analysis., (Copyright 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

We address the problem of meta-analysis of pairs of survival curves under heterogeneity. Starting point for the meta-analysis is a set of studies, each comparing the same two treatments, containing information about multiple survival outcomes. Under heterogeneity, we model the number of events using an extension of the Poisson correlated gamma-frailty model with serial within-arm and positive between-arm correlations. The parameters of the models are estimated following a two-stage estimation procedure. In the first stage the underlying hazards and between-study variance are estimated using the marginals, while a second stage is used to estimate both within-arm and between-arm correlations. The methodology is illustrated with an observational study on breast cancer.

We describe a new multivariate gamma distribution and discuss its implication in a Poisson-correlated gamma-frailty model. This model is introduced to account for between-subjects correlation occurring in longitudinal count data. For likelihood-based inference involving distributions in which high-dimensional dependencies are present, it may be useful to approximate likelihoods based on the univariate or bivariate marginal distributions. The merit of composite likelihood is to reduce the computational complexity of the full likelihood. A 2-stage composite-likelihood procedure is developed for estimating the model parameters. The suggested method is applied to a meta-analysis study for survival curves.

Typically long-lived sibling pairs have been collected for linkage analysis of human longevity and information on life span of first-degree relatives is available to assess familial aggregation of life span. We propose a new weighted statistic for aggregation analysis, which tests for a relationship between a family history of excessive survival of the sibships of the long-lived pairs and the survival of their parents and their offspring. For linkage analysis, we derive a new weighted score statistic from a simple gamma frailty model, which assigns more weight to excessive long-lived pairs. We apply the methods to data from the Leiden Longevity Study, which consists of sibling pairs of age 90 years or above and their first-degree relatives. The pairs have been genotyped for microsatellite markers in a candidate region. Association was present between survival within the sibships and survival of the offspring, but not with the parental generation. For linkage analysis, weighting increased the value of the test statistic, but the result was not statistically significant. About the methods we conclude that the statistic for aggregation provides insight into clustering of life span and the statistic for linkage provides a new tool to include demographic information into the analysis., (Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Research suggests that chronically ill patients and their partners perceive illness differently, and that these differences have a negative impact on patients' quality of life (QoL). This study assessed whether illness perceptions of patients with Huntington's disease (HD) differ from those of their partners, and examined whether spousal illness perceptions are important for the QoL of the couples (n = 51 couples). Partners reported that their HD-patient spouses suffered more symptoms and experienced less control than the patients themselves reported. Illness perceptions of patients and partners correlated significantly with patient QoL. Partners' beliefs in a long duration of the patients' illness and less belief in cure, were associated with patient vitality scores. Suggestions for future research emphasize the importance of qualitative research approaches in combination with cognitive-behavioural approaches.

The problem of estimating haplotype frequencies from unphased single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype data in sibships with and without parents is considered. We focus on the Fisher information of the haplotype frequencies of the parents in order to correctly deal with the dependence of haplotypes within sibships. We compare these Fisher information matrices with those obtained for unrelated individuals and study the relative efficiency of sibships with and without parents compared to unrelated individuals in estimating haplotype frequencies. Crudely summarizing, the second sib contributes half the information of the first, except for rare haplotypes, when the second sib counts almost as one. We argue that the relative efficiencies can also be used to correct for dependence in the calculation of standard errors after initially ignoring the dependence in the estimation phase., ((c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel)

Background: Anxious-retarded depression is a two-dimensionally defined subcategory of depression derived from DSM-IV melancholia. It is related to increased plasma vasopressin, correlative plasma vasopressin and cortisol levels, and a positive family history. We now explored its relation with outcome., Methods: Seventy depressed patients were included to follow-up for two years. Outcome was defined by time until full-remission. Cox regression analyses were used to compare anxious-retarded and non-anxious-retarded patients, as well as melancholic and non-melancholic patients., Results: Anxious-retarded depression had poor outcome., Limitations: The number of patients was relatively small., Conclusion: The poor outcome of anxious-retarded depression further supports its validity.

The mean identity-by-descent (IBD) specification used in the Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) methodology for linkage is only valid, strictly speaking, under the assumption of fully polymorphic markers. In practice, markers often provide only partial IBD information, which can potentially result in inconsistency of the locus location and gene effect estimates obtained by the GEE method. Using both simulations and theory, we identify some realistic conditions about marker information under which the validity of the GEE linkage methods may be arguable. Namely, researchers should not trust the GEE parameters' estimates and their associated confidence intervals in areas of the genome where IBD information is sparse or when this information changes abruptly. We show that properly standardized statistics based on IBD sharing provide a valid alternative., (Copyright 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

The clinical features of inclusion body myositis (IBM) were of minor importance in the design of consensus diagnostic criteria, mainly because of controversial views on the specificity of signs and symptoms, although some authors reported "typical" signs. To re-assess the clinical spectrum of IBM, a single investigator using a standard protocol studied a cohort of 64 patients cross-sectionally. Symptom onset was before the age of 50 years in 20% of cases. Only a few patients (14 %) started with weakness other than that of quadriceps, finger flexor or pharyngeal muscles. The sequence of power loss was erratic, but onset of symptoms with quadriceps weakness predicted an earlier onset of dysphagia in older patients (> or = 56 years) compared with younger ones (< 56 years) (p = 0.02). Despite widespread weakness patients had favourable scores on three commonly used function scales and they kept their employment. Complete wheel-chair dependency was rare (3 %). A dominant characteristic was the anatomical distribution of afflicted muscles: ventral extremity muscle groups were more affected than dorsal muscle groups and girdle muscles were least affected, the latter preserving postural stability. Ankylosis, especially in extension of the fingers,was frequently present. Together with the sparing of intrinsic hand muscles it was helpful in the preservation of many skillful movements. IBM has a unique distribution of muscle weakness. Ankylotic contractures are common. We feel that their joint impact on daily functioning is characteristic for the disease.

Randomized clinical trials with long-term survival data comparing two treatments often show Kaplan-Meier plots with crossing survival curves. Such behaviour implies a violation of the proportional hazards assumption for treatment. The Cox proportional hazards regression model with treatment as a fixed effect can therefore not be used to assess the influence of treatment of survival. In this paper we analyse long-term follow-up data from the Dutch Gastric Cancer Trial, a randomized study comparing limited (D1) lymph node dissection with extended (D2) lymph node dissection. We illustrate a number of ways of dealing with survival data that do not obey the proportional hazards assumption, each of which can be easily implemented in standard statistical packages., (Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

In genetic epidemiological studies informative families are often oversampled to increase the power of a study. For a proband-family design, where relatives of probands are sampled, we derive the score statistic to test for clustering of binary and quantitative traits within families due to genetic factors. The derived score statistic is robust to ascertainment scheme. We considered correlation due to unspecified genetic effects and/or due to sharing alleles identical by descent (IBD) at observed marker locations in a candidate region. A simulation study was carried out to study the distribution of the statistic under the null hypothesis in small data-sets. To illustrate the score statistic, data from 33 families with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) were analyzed. In addition to the binary outcome DM2 we also analyzed the quantitative outcome, body mass index (BMI). For both traits familial aggregation was highly significant. For DM2, also including IBD sharing at marker D3S3681 as a cause of correlation gave an even more significant result, which suggests the presence of a trait gene linked to this marker. We conclude that for the proband-family design the score statistic is a powerful and robust tool for detecting clustering of outcomes.

Competing events concerning individual subjects are of interest in many medical studies. For example, leukemia-free patients surviving a bone marrow transplant are at risk of developing acute or chronic graft-versus-host disease, or they might develop infections. In this situation, competing risks models provide a natural framework to describe the disease. When incorporating covariates influencing the transition intensities, an obvious approach is to use Cox's proportional hazards model for each of the transitions separately. A practical problem then is how to deal with the abundance of regression parameters. Our objective is to describe the competing risks model in fewer parameters, both in order to avoid imprecise estimation in transitions with rare events and in order to facilitate interpretation of these estimates. Suppose that the regression parameters are gathered into a p x K matrix B, with p and K as the number of covariates and transitions, respectively. We propose the use of reduced rank models, where B is required to be of lower rank R, smaller than both p and K. One way to achieve this is to write B = AGamma(intercal) with A and Gamma matrices of dimensions p x R and K x R, respectively. We shall outline an algorithm to obtain estimates and their standard errors in a reduced rank proportional hazards model for competing risks and illustrate the approach on a competing risks model applied to 8966 leukemia patients from the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

Background: Consistent average length differences between species and chromosome arm differences within species indicate that telomere length is genetically determined. This seems to contradict an observed large variation in lengths of the same human telomere between metaphases of the same individual. We examined the extent to which the variation in the telomeres of the human X and Y chromosomes is heritable, induced, or technical in origin., Methods: Metaphase chromosomes were stained by fluorescence in situ hybridization with a telomere repeat-specific probe, and fluorescence intensities of the X and Y chromosomes were measured. If telomere length variation is predominantly genetically determined and a 50% probability of meiotic recombination between the pseudo-autosomal regions of Yp and Xp in the father is taken into account, one expects an equal chance that the Yp telomere of a son is derived from his father's Xp or Yp telomere. This implies that the Yp/Yq telomere ratios in fathers and sons will be identical in the absence of paternal meiotic recombination and different when recombination occurs., Results: Among five father-son pairs, four showed similar Yp/Yq ratios (P > 0.05), whereas one pair exhibited a large difference in the Yp/Yq ratio that was attributable to a significantly longer Xp than Yp telomere in the father and a presumptive meiotic exchange between X and Y during paternal meiosis. Further, the Xq telomere exhibited a generally shorter telomere length than the others., Conclusions: The high variation in telomere length appeared to be intracellular (between sister chromatids) and, hence, technical in nature. We found no measurable induced variation in the cells studied, implying that, if induced variation exists, it is small compared with the technical variation., (Copyright 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Background: Transvaginal ultrasound (TVU) is feasible and accurate in the differentiation between non-malignant and malignant ovarian abnormalities. However, despite the clinical relevance, the accuracy of TVU in the differentiation between the many different non-malignant cysts is unknown., Methods: Between 1992 and 2002, all women who had surgery at our centre because of a non-malignant ovarian cyst were included prospectively in this study. The sonographic characteristics as well as the expected histological diagnosis (the 'sonohistological diagnosis') were evaluated pre-operatively. This diagnosis was compared with the histopathological diagnosis, and diagnostic parameters [with 95% confidence interval (CI)] of the sonohistological diagnosis were calculated. Logistic models, with the sonographic characteristics as variables, were constructed for each histopathological diagnosis., Results: A total of 406 women were included consecutively. The overall diagnostic accuracy of the sonohistological diagnosis was 60% (95% CI 0.56-0.65). Only in cases of simple ovarian cysts did the diagnostic accuracy of the respective logistic model exceed that of the sonohistological diagnosis (0.88 versus 0.81, P < 0.01). The diagnostic accuracy of the sonohistological diagnosis for endometriotic and dermoid ovarian cysts was significantly better compared with the respective logistic model (0.84 versus 0.71, P < 0.01 and 0.87 versus 0.82, P = 0.03, respectively)., Conclusion: In approximately half of the non-malignant ovarian cysts, TVU is capable of distinguishing between the different histopathological diagnoses of non-malignant ovarian masses. Only in the diagnosis of simple ovarian cysts might use of the logistic models be helpful.

Airway inflammation and remodelling play an important role in the pathophysiology of asthma. Remodelling may affect childhood lung function, and this process may be reversed by anti-inflammatory treatment. The current study assessed longitudinally whether asthma affects growth of airway function relative to airspaces, and if so whether this is redressed by inhaled corticosteroids (ICS). Every 4 months for up to 3 yrs, lung function was assessed in 54 asthmatic children (initial age 7-16 yrs), who inhaled 0.2 mg salbutamol t.i.d. and 0.2 mg budesonide t.i.d. (beta2-agonist (BA)+ICS), or placebo (PL) t.i.d. (BA+PL) in a randomised, double-blind design. Measurements were carried out before and after maximal bronchodilation. Airway growth was assessed from the change of forced expiratory volume in one second and of maximal expiratory flows (at 60% and 40% of total lung capacity (TLC) remaining in the lung) relative to TLC, as measures of more central, intermediate and more peripheral airways. Growth patterns were compared with the longitudinal findings in 376 healthy children. Airway patency after maximal bronchodilation in patients on BA+PL remained reduced compared to healthy subjects, whereas in patients on BA+ICS a marked improvement was observed to subnormal. No differences between patients and controls could be demonstrated for growth patterns of central and intermediate airway function. Compliance with BA+ICS was 75% of the prescribed dose, resulting in significant, sustained improvement of symptoms and postbronchodilator calibre of central and intermediate airways to subnormal within 2 months, but postbronchodilator small airway patency remained reduced, though improved compared to patients on BA+PL. Anti-inflammatory treatment of asthmatic children is associated with normal functional development of central and intermediate airways. The persistently reduced postbronchodilator patency of peripheral airways may reflect remodelling, or insufficient anti-inflammatory treatment.

The purpose of this research was to model the familial clustering of breast cancer and to provide an accurate risk estimate for individuals from the general population, based on their family history of breast and ovarian cancer. We constructed a genetic model as an extension of a model by Claus et al. (E. B. Claus et al., Am. J. Hum. Genet., 48: 232-242, 1991), with three breast cancer genes, BRCA1, BRCA2, and a hypothetical BRCAu, in two variants, one in which BRCAu was dominant and one in which BRCAu was recessive. The model parameters were estimated using published estimates of population incidence and relative risks. Risk estimation was performed for a set of 196 counselees and for a set of simulated counselees with both the dominant BRCAu and the recessive BRCAu model, and compared relating to medical management. Estimates of the model parameters were found. Relative risks among family members were comparable between the model of Claus et al. (E. B. Claus et al., Am. J. Hum. Genet., 48: 232-242, 1991) and our model. The dominant and the recessive model provided approximately similar lifetime risks for breast cancer. Our model is suitable for breast cancer risk estimation in a health care setting.

Background: The intrauterine device (IUD) is an effective contraceptive method. The contraceptive power as well as the side-effects of IUD are thought to relate to the position of the IUD in the uterine cavity. We assessed the accuracy of clinical evaluation of IUD position., Methods: A prospective comparative study was performed. The clinical evaluation was compared with the TVU measurement of IUD position both immediately after insertion and 6 weeks after insertion. The primary outcome measures were the positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) of the clinical evaluation of IUD position., Results: 195 women were included consecutively, 181 women (92.8%) were available for follow-up. The PPV and NPV of clinical evaluation of IUD position immediately after insertion were respectively 0.60 (95% CI: 0.39-0.81) and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96-1.0). The prevalence of an abnormally positioned IUD was 7.7% (95% CI: 3.9-11.4). The PPV and NPV of the clinical evaluation at follow-up were respectively 0.54 (95% CI: 0.26-0.81) and 1.0 (95% CI: 0.98-1.0). The prevalence of abnormal position was 4.0% (95% CI: 1.7-7.1)., Conclusion: Clinical evaluation is an excellent test for the evaluation of the position of an IUD and routine TVU is not indicated for this purpose.

Reliable and sensitive measures are needed to evaluate the quality of life (QoL) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). No lupus specific questionnaires are available. This study describes the development and validation of a disease-specific questionnaire for lupus patients, which assesses the presence and burden of 38 disease- and treatment-related symptoms: the SLE Symptom Checklist (SSC). Reliability and reproducibility were tested in respectively 87 and 28 stable SLE patients. The internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha coefficients 0.89) and test-retest reliability (Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient between 0.67 and 0.87) were satisfactory. Concurrent validity was supported by significant, but moderate correlations with other measures of subjective well-being and functional status. Responsiveness was measured in 17 patients with lupus nephritis treated with cyclophosphamide, at start of therapy and 1 year thereafter. A significant change in number of symptoms and total distress level was found. It is concluded that the SSC has satisfactory psychometric properties and appears suitable for both clinical and research purposes.

The two most popular methods to detect linkage of a quantitative trait to a marker are the Haseman-Elston regression method and the variance components likelihood-ratio test. In the literature, these methods are frequently compared and the relative advantages and disadvantages of each method are well known. In this article, we derive a score test for the variance component attributable to a specific quantitative trait locus and show that for sib-pairs it is mathematically equivalent to a recently proposed version of the Haseman-Elston method that optimally combines the sum squared and the difference squared of the centered phenotype values of the sibs. Because score tests and likelihood-ratio tetsts are equivalent for large sample sizes, the variance components likelihood-ratio test is also asymptotically equivalent to this optimal Haseman-Elston test. This fact gives a theoretical explanation of the empirical observation from simulation studies reporting similar power of the variance components likelihood-ratio test and the optimal Haseman-Elston method. Perhaps more importantly for practical purposes, the score test can also be extended in a natural way to support the simultaneous analysis of more than two subjects and multivariate phenotypes., (Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Little is known about the involvement of cytokines in the pathogenesis of primary progressive (PP) multiple sclerosis (MS). We evaluated in this cross-sectional study whether IL-18, IL-12p35, IL-12p40, TNF-alpha, IFN-gamma, IL-10, IL-4, TGF-beta, IL-12Rbeta1, and IL-12Rbeta2 mRNA expression in unstimulated white blood cells showed significant differences between relapsing-remitting (RR), secondary progressive (SP) and PP MS patients, and healthy controls. All clinical subtypes showed unique mRNA expression patterns as compared to the controls. Both RR and SP patients displayed increased levels of IL-12p40, IL-18, and TGF-beta mRNA compared to controls, whereas PP patients showed only increased IL-18 mRNA levels. Both in PP and SP patients, IFN-gamma and IL-10 mRNA were decreased compared to RR patients and controls. PP patients were unique in that they showed decreased IL-12Rbeta1 mRNA. In conclusion, our data show that the assessment of cytokine (receptor) mRNA profiles is useful to discriminate between the different clinical subtypes and suggest that different cytokines are involved in the pathogenesis of PP MS as compared to RR and SP MS.

The purpose of this study was to systematically assess the impact of Huntington's disease (HD) on patients' health-related quality of life (QOL). Seventy-seven patients with a clinically confirmed diagnosis of HD were interviewed by means of the Sickness Impact Profile (SIP). Additional data were gathered on patients' motor performance by means of the motor section of the Unified Huntington Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS), and cognitive performance by means of the Mini-Mental State (MMS). Patients had high scores on the SIP subscales, indicating moderate to severe functional impairment. Total Motor Score (TMS), MMS scores, and the duration of HD were significantly correlated with patients' scores on the SIP, and predicted a significant amount of variance of the Physical Dimension of the SIP, but not of the Psychosocial Dimension. We conclude that HD has a great impact on patients' physical and psychosocial well-being, the latter being more severely affected. Implications for further research and clinical practice are discussed., (Copyright 2001 Movement Disorder Society.)

Interferon (IFN)-beta treatment is effective in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RR-MS) via an as yet unidentified mechanism. In the present study, we investigated whether the expression of messenger RNA (mRNA) encoding the interleukin (IL)-12 subunits p40 and p35, IL-12 receptor chains, IL-18, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFalpha), IFNgamma, IL-10, IL-4, or transforming growth factor-beta in unstimulated whole blood of 26 RR-MS patients changed during 6 months of IFNbeta-1b treatment. In these patients, a significant change was found in TNFalpha mRNA, whereas changes in IL-12 receptor-beta2 and IL-10 mRNA showed a trend. IFNbeta-1b-related changes in cytokine mRNA expression were next evaluated in clinical subgroups of RR-MS patients classified as either clinical responders or nonresponders on the basis of Expanded Disability Status Scale progression and the number of relapses and steroid interventions needed in the 2 years before initiation of treatment compared with the 2 years after initiation of treatment. These subgroups showed different response patterns to IFNbeta-1b treatment with respect to IL-10, TNFalpha, and IL-18 only. Surprisingly, clinical responders displayed no change in these cytokines, whereas nonresponders showed a decrease in TNFalpha and IL-18 mRNA as well as a transient increase in IL-10 mRNA. Baseline levels of IL-12p35 mRNA were lower in the responders compared with the nonresponders: this marker correctly predicted the clinical outcome in 81% of the 26 patients under investigation.

Prognostic models can be developed with multiple regression analysis of a data set containing individual patient data. Often this data set is relatively small, while previously published studies present results for larger numbers of patients. We describe a method to combine univariable regression results from the medical literature with univariable and multivariable results from the data set containing individual patient data. This 'adaptation method' exploits the generally strong correlation between univariable and multivariable regression coefficients. The method is illustrated with several logistic regression models to predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction. The regression coefficients showed considerably less variability when estimated with the adaptation method, compared to standard maximum likelihood estimates. Also, model performance, as distinguished in calibration and discrimination, improved clearly when compared to models including shrunk or penalized estimates. We conclude that prognostic models may benefit substantially from explicit incorporation of literature data., (Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Background: In general practice airway obstruction and the bronchodilator response are usually assessed using peak expiratory flow (PEF) measurements. A study was carried out in patients presenting with persistent cough to investigate to what extent PEF measurements are reliable when compared with tests using forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)) as the measure of response., Methods: Data (questionnaire, physical examination, spirometry, PEF) were collected from 240 patients aged 18-75 years, not previously diagnosed with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), who consulted their general practitioner with cough of at least two weeks duration. The relationship between low PEF (PEF < PEFpred - 1.64RSD) and low FEV(1) (FEV(1) < FEV(1)pred - 1.64RSD) was tested. A positive bronchodilator response after inhaling 400 microg salbutamol was defined as an increase in FEV(1) of > or = 9% predicted and was compared with an absolute increase in PEF with cut off values of 40, 60, and 80 l/min and DeltaPEF % baseline with cut off values of 10%, 15%, and 20%., Results: Forty eight patients (20%) had low FEV(1), 86 (35.8%) had low PEF, and 32 (13.3%) had a positive bronchodilator response. Low PEF had a positive predictive value (PPV) for low FEV(1) of 46.5% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 95%. DeltaPEF of > or = 10%, > or = 15%, or > or = 20% baseline had PPVs of 36%, 52%, and 67%, respectively, and DeltaPEF of > or = 40, > or = 60, and > or = 80 l/min in absolute terms had PPVs of 39%, 45%, and 57%, respectively, for DeltaFEV(1) > or = 9% predicted; NPVs were high (88-93%)., Conclusions: Although PEF measurements can reliably exclude airway obstruction and bronchodilator response, they are not suitable for use in the assessment of the bronchodilator response in the diagnostic work up of primary care patients with persistent cough. The clinical value of PEF measurements in the diagnosis of reversible obstructive airway disease should therefore be re-evaluated.

It has been shown that proinflammatory and antiinflammatory cytokines correlate with disease activity in multiple sclerosis (MS). To establish whether such correlations depend on the disease stage, we assessed in a longitudinal fashion the expression of interleukin (IL)-12 (p40 and p35), tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interferon-gamma, and IL-10 mRNA by competitive polymerase chain reaction in unstimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells of relapsing-remitting (RR) and secondary progressive (SP) MS patients, in relation to monthly clinical and magnetic resonance imaging monitoring. MS patients had increased levels of IL-12p40 and decreased levels of IL-10 mRNA compared with controls; this difference was most pronounced in SP patients. Both RR and SP patients had increased levels of IL-12p40 mRNA compared with controls during the development of active lesions. Moreover, in RR MS an increase was found before relapse. IL-12p35 mRNA was decreased in both groups, and in relation to disease activity it showed a pattern different from IL-12p40 mRNA. In RR MS, IL-10 mRNA was low 4 weeks before magnetic resonance imaging activity and 6 weeks before relapse; a significant increase to normal levels was noted when active lesions became apparent. In contrast, SP patients showed low IL-10 mRNA levels constitutively, suggesting that IL-10 plays an important role in the control of disease progression.