1. A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration
- Author
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Joost Wolf, Xinyou Yin, Pierre Martre, Zhengtao Zhang, H. K. Soo, Manuel Marcaida, Nadine Brisson, Patrick Bertuzzi, Soo-Hyung Kim, Yan Zhu, Roberto C. Izaurralde, L. A. Hunt, Maria I. Travasso, Christian Baron, James W. Jones, R.E.E. Jongschaap, T. Palosuo, Daniel Wallach, Jerry L. Hatfield, Christian Biernath, G. De Sanctis, Senthold Asseng, H. Yoshida, Donald S. Gaydon, Edmar Teixeira, Davide Cammarano, Alex C. Ruane, C. Nendel, T. Hasegawa, Thilo Streck, Garry O'Leary, Upendra Singh, Frank Ewert, Delphine Deryng, R. Goldberg, Bas A. M. Bouman, Peter J. Thorburn, Tao Li, Roberto Confalonieri, Myriam Adam, Jes Olesen, Reimund P. Rötter, Tamon Fumoto, Patricio Grassini, Joachim Ingwersen, Robert F. Grant, Katharina Waha, James Williams, Fulu Tao, Eckart Priesack, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Liang Tang, Sebastian Gayler, Jordi Doltra, L. Heng, Christoph Müller, J.G. Conijn, Iwan Supit, S. Naresh Kumar, Iurii Shcherbak, Jeffrey W. White, Hendrik Boogaard, Kenneth J. Boote, David Makowski, Federico Sau, Jean-Louis Durand, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Marc Corbeels, Steven Hoek, Simone Bregaglio, Hiroshi Nakagawa, Philippe Oriol, Anthony Challinor, R. A. Kemanian, Carlos Angulo, Pasquale Steduto, Bruno Basso, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Dennis Timlin, J. Hooker, Samuel Buis, Maria Virginia Pravia, Françoise Ruget, Dominique Ripoche, Simona Bassu, Pierre Stratonovitch, Jon I. Lizaso, Balwinder Singh, Tom M. Osborne, Paul W. Wilkens, Agronomie, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), International Rice Research Institute [Philippines] (IRRI), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos, Philippines, Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (UMR AGAP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), International Water Management Institute, Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, CGIAR, Institute of Crops Science and Resource Conservation INRES, Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Department of Geological Sciences [East Lansing], Agroclim (AGROCLIM), German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Soil Ecololgy, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), Center for Geo-information, Alterra, Department of Agronomy, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Cassandra Lab, University of Milan, Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), The James Hutton Institute, CGIAR ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, Plant Research International, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Embrapa Cerrados, Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (UPR AIDA), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Science, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Tsukuba, National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences (NIAES), Agriculture Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), WESS Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Departement of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska [Lincoln], University of Nebraska System-University of Nebraska System, National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), Centre for Geo-Information, Agriculture Department, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria (INIA), Institute of Landscape System Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), College of the Environment, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Department Produccion Vegetal, Fitotecnia, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Department of Economic Development Jobs, Transport and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Walker Institute, NCAS Climate, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Department of Plant Science, Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System-Penn State System, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Soil Ecology, Department Biologia Vegetal, Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Department of Geological Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre [Inde] (CIMMYT), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), College of the Environment, School of Environmental and Forest Science, University of Washington [Seattle], FAO Sub-regional Office for Eastern Africa [Addis Ababa, Ethiopie] (FAO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science, National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Sustainable Production, Plant & Food Research, ARS Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, United States Department of Agriculture, CIRN, Institute for Climate and Water, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Agriculture, Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers (ARCHE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse [ENSAT]-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Texas AgriLife Research and Extension, Texas A&M University System, Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University (BNU), Metaprogramme ACCAF, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Università degli Studi di Milano = University of Milan (UNIMI), University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Nanjing Agricultural University (NAU), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse (ENSAT), Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, International Rice Research Institute, Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (Cirad-Persyst-UPR 115 AIDA), Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Beijing Normal University, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères ( P3F ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 ( UBP ), Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales ( UMR AGAP ), Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] ( INRA Montpellier ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale ( UMR TETIS ), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture ( IRSTEA ) -AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ), Department of Geological Sciences, W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State Univ, Dept Geol Sci, E Lansing, MI 48823 USA, UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Helmholtz-Zentrum München ( HZM ), Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes ( EMMAH ), Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse ( UAPV ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Invergowrie, School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] ( SEE ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] ( WUR ), Agro-ecologyand Sustainable Intensification of Annual Crops, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ), University of East Anglia [Norwich] ( UEA ), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), University of Nebraska-Lincoln, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et Développement Territorial (AGIR), Agro-ecology and Sustainable Intensification of Annual Crops, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ( UPM ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), PennState University [Pennsylvania] ( PSU ), W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Department of Geological Sciences, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre ( CIMMYT ), International Fertilizer Development Center ( IFDC ), Food and Agricultural Organization ( FAO ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers ( ARCHE ), Institut National Polytechnique [Toulouse] ( INP ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, and Texas A and M University ( TAMU )
- Subjects
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences ,Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,F62 - Physiologie végétale - Croissance et développement ,01 natural sciences ,Statistics ,Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica ,Climate change ,Crop model ,[ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences ,Triticum ,Mathematics ,2. Zero hunger ,Global and Planetary Change ,Mathematical model ,Air ,Forestry ,Regression analysis ,04 agricultural and veterinary sciences ,PE&RC ,[ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,Rendement des cultures ,Plant Production Systems ,Statistical model ,Modèle mathématique ,Atmosphère ,Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics ,Yield ,Crop Physiology ,P40 - Météorologie et climatologie ,[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,Oryza sativa ,Zea mays ,Earth System Science ,Emulator ,Agro Water- en Biobased Economy ,Alterra - Centrum Bodem ,Precipitation ,Croissance ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Meta-model ,Changement climatique ,Hydrology ,Modélisation des cultures ,Crop yield ,Simulation modeling ,Soil Science Centre ,15. Life on land ,Température ,Laboratorium voor Phytopathologie ,Climate Resilience ,13. Climate action ,Klimaatbestendigheid ,Yield (chemistry) ,Plantaardige Productiesystemen ,Laboratory of Phytopathology ,040103 agronomy & agriculture ,0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries ,Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde ,Plante de culture ,Agronomy and Crop Science ,Dioxyde de carbone - Abstract
Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenarios of temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Such datasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and to interpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulate ensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models is that they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2 concentration levels, and can thus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without rerunning the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulated by 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to these datasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature. Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effect of a temperature increase of +2 degrees C in the considered sites. Compared to wheat, required levels of [CO2] increase are much higher for maize, and intermediate for rice. For all crops, uncertainties in simulating climate change impacts increase more with temperature than with elevated [CO2]. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
- Published
- 2015
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