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The protracted Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has existed in the South Caucasus since the Soviet era. Throughout this decades-long war, more than 20,000 deaths have occurred and 1.5 million persons have been displaced. The Russian Federation remains a perennial mediator of the conflict as it seeks to further its special relationships with Armenia and Azerbaijan, consistent with its objectives in its entire near abroad. To that end, Russia continues to exercise its foreign policy in this deadlocked but intense territorial dispute over the mountainous region between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia’s participation in multinational organizations, unilateral peace-brokering efforts, and bilateral relationships ensure that it maintains its hegemony in the region while also impeding international peace efforts. During the 2020 flareup known as the Second Karabakh War, Russia retained its role as the primary negotiator by unilaterally brokering a ceasefire and deploying nearly 2,000 Russian Federation peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh. However, complicating matters further is Azerbaijan’s continual movement toward Turkey, Armenia’s geopolitical isolation, and Turkey’s increased, competitive role in the region. Factors in Russia’s historical intervention, Armenian and Azerbaijani perceptions of Russia’s intentions, and Turkey’s increased role in the region continue to complicate and reinforce Russian foreign policy initiatives in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict., Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

While climate change continues to reduce Arctic ice coverage, Russia’s expanding Arctic territorial claims and military buildup raise security concerns for Arctic states, specifically Norway, and have renewed NATO’s interest in the region. The Marine Corps has a longstanding role in the High North of Norway, contributing to the deterrence of Soviet aggression during the Cold War. During the same period, the Marine Corps balanced its additional rapid deployment requirements by increasing interoperability with Norway through annual exercises and pre-staging equipment for a quicker response capability. Currently, the Marine Corps is undergoing a deliberate shift to a maritime force focused on the Indo-Pacific amid great power competition with China. This thesis explores the Marine Corps’ future role in collective defense against Russia via NATO and its relationship with Norway. The research considered Russian and NATO interests in the Arctic and how lessons from the Marine Corps’ historic balancing of requirements of the Cold War apply toward emerging challenges. This thesis recommends utilizing aspects of the Marine Corps’ future operating concept to strengthen Norway’s and, by extension, NATO’s ability to deter Russian aggression in the High North., Major, United States Marine Corps, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

NPS NRP Technical Report, This research will examine the implications of the rise of two near-peer, nuclear-armed adversaries for the United States, with an emphasis on the Russian role as a pivotal player in this rising configuration. The focus on Russia will account for the fact that while China's rise makes it potentially the most significant long-term threat, the current scale of Russia's arsenal and its strategic posture make it the most immediate existential threat to the United States and its allies, as well as a key potential spoiler in the U.S. strategic pivot to the Indo-Pacific. The research will proceed along three parallel tracks. The first track will analyze how the different motivations and capabilities of Russia and China to challenge the United States structures their incentives for strategic cooperation, and will review the key debates among Russian elites on these topics. The second part will analyze Russian elite perceptions of the opportunities and limits of cooperation with China in boosting each other's strategic capabilities and their employment strategies. The third track of the research will examine the role of arms control and confidence-building measures in the emerging trilateral context, with the United States facing two near-peer adversaries. This research will be conducted through a combined team effort of subject-matter experts on Russian, U.S., NATO, and Chinese strategic doctrines, capabilities, and behavior. The researchers will perform a rigorous analysis of the debates in the Russian literature, complementing and contextualizing this information through discussions with subject matter experts in Washington, USSTRATCOM, NATO Headquarters, SHAPE Headquarters, and in key European allies. The final report will provide a combined analytical assessment on the topic, and discuss the implications for the USN, DoD, and U.S. national security more broadly., N3/N5 - Plans & Strategy, This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp, Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The United States and its allies have been subjected to clandestine interference campaigns led by the Russian government for nearly a century. The targets and mechanisms of subversive Kremlin influence have varied over the decades, but themes such as seeking to tamper with electoral processes have seen refinement and renewed vigor in the 21st century. From the inception of the Soviet Union to the era of Vladimir Putin, this thesis investigates the targets and mechanisms of subversive Russian influence—with particular focus on election meddling—to identify the greatest U.S. vulnerabilities to such interference campaigns. We determined that the Kremlin possesses a wide variety of well-honed tools such as disinformation, cyberattacks, and forgeries that allow it to apply stress to democratic systems and exploit rival nations’ internal divisions, and that it has had success in deploying such tools in a number of Western democratic elections since 2014. We find that significant damage to the credibility of elections and the U.S. government is a viable vulnerability for Russian interference campaigns, and that mounting defensive measures against and mitigation thereof must be a top priority for U.S. national and homeland security entities., Civilian, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s assessment of the changes in the strategic security environment has prompted an evolving approach to, and definition of, strategic deterrence and comprehensive military modernization to compete in such a dynamic environment. This thesis will explore Russia’s three distinct stages and approaches of strategic deterrence, starting in 1999 to the present day. It is from the influence of these approaches to strategic deterrence that Russia developed its corresponding security, defense, and military strategies, doctrines, and policies. This thesis focuses on the roles, utilization, and modernization efforts of the Russian Federation Navy (RFN) throughout each distinct stage. Russia currently regards the RFN as one of the most effective instruments of strategic deterrence. This thesis evaluates the effectiveness of the RFN across key Russian maritime domains: the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea, and the Arctic and Atlantic oceans. Many challenges prevent Russia from achieving the global naval notoriety it desires, and, for the foreseeable future, it relies on high-end cruise missiles and will direct naval operations in the maritime domains contiguous to Russia., Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Since August 2008, Russia has increased the use of soft power tactics in Georgia. Disinformation, propaganda, and fake news have become part of the everyday narrative spread by Russian media. Many scholars have studied Russian soft power and concluded that it mainly targeted Georgia after that country’s strong intention toward integration with the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia’s aim was to alter public opinion of Georgia and threaten the country’s image in the international society. However, one vulnerable region in northeastern Georgia has not received much attention. This study takes a closer look at Pankisi Gorge, a valley that borders Russia’s breakaway republic of Chechnya and populated mostly with ethnic Kists of the Islamic faith. Through the analysis of Russian media stories about Pankisi, this thesis finds that the valley is often presented as a “nest of terrorism,” creating a false sense of threat in the entire region. Additionally, this thesis discusses how Russia can destabilize Pankisi through fake news and actually use the situation for its possible military intervention in Georgia., Civilian, State Security Service, Georgia, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

While climate change continues to reduce Arctic ice coverage, Russia’s expanding Arctic territorial claims and military buildup raise security concerns for Arctic states, specifically Norway, and have renewed NATO’s interest in the region. The Marine Corps has a longstanding role in the High North of Norway, contributing to the deterrence of Soviet aggression during the Cold War. During the same period, the Marine Corps balanced its additional rapid deployment requirements by increasing interoperability with Norway through annual exercises and pre-staging equipment for a quicker response capability. Currently, the Marine Corps is undergoing a deliberate shift to a maritime force focused on the Indo-Pacific amid great power competition with China. This thesis explores the Marine Corps’ future role in collective defense against Russia via NATO and its relationship with Norway. The research considered Russian and NATO interests in the Arctic and how lessons from the Marine Corps’ historic balancing of requirements of the Cold War apply toward emerging challenges. This thesis recommends utilizing aspects of the Marine Corps’ future operating concept to strengthen Norway’s and, by extension, NATO’s ability to deter Russian aggression in the High North.

This thesis examines how Sweden and Finland have changed their security policies in the Baltic region after the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation and analyzes what this policy means for the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Although Sweden and Finland are not full members of NATO, since 1994, when they became Partners for Peace in cooperation with NATO, Sweden and Finland have drawn closer to the alliance and, since 2014, have engaged in a posture that is far closer to a collective defense. The two neutral Nordics have increased cooperation with the organization and other member countries that border the Baltic Sea. They have become surrogate NATO allies, but they are not de jure engaged under Article V of the Washington treaty.

Since the end of the Cold War, the development of advanced military technologies has affected arms production by creating new demands for modern weapons that are more effective but also expensive. This project explores the impact of the arms trade on the defense industrial bases (DIBs). Within the framework of this project, I examined the importance of the international arms transfer, military expenditure, and cooperation with partner countries. Achieving a defense autarky depends on many factors, but these are most important: the share of the defense budget used for military R&D and weapons procurement, and the diversification of product lines for domestic and international markets. With the aim of achieving defense autarky, states should reduce their dependency on foreign suppliers and seek technology transfer and cooperation to boost indigenous production capacity. Through comparative case studies, this project analyzed attempts to develop self-sufficient DIBs in Turkey, Iran, and Ukraine. Each study provided a review of the factors that influenced these attempts, including procurement and maintenance of armories, distribution of defense spending by categories, arms exports and imports, defense-industrial policies, and defense markets with key stakeholders. Using this analysis, I provided key policy recommendations for the development of a self-sufficient DIB in Georgia, which is at a crossroads in this field., Civilian, Ministry of Defense, Georgia, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Many observers have concentrated on the territorial consequences of Crimea’s annexation in 2014. The Kerch Strait incident in November 2018 made salient the existence of a maritime dimension to this conflict. In addition, it brought into focus the longest bridge in Europe, linking Crimea to the Russian mainland. This thesis analyzes the benefit of the Crimean Bridge for Russia in three domains. First, the bridge permits Russia to further secure its strategic hold on Crimea and to exert continuous economic and political pressure on Ukraine. Second, the Crimean Bridge illustrates how Russia conceives of international law and international treaties. Furthermore, it supports Russia’s onslaught on Ukraine’s maritime integrity. Third, this imposing structure symbolizes the resurrection of Russian greatness, and at the same time, it is a monument for the man who made that possible, Vladimir Putin. As this research shows, the laissez-faire response of the international community has allowed Russia to regain strength militarily and politically, and as a nation per se, even beyond the wider Black Sea area. The international community must be wary of Russia—or any other nation—that begins to build infrastructure to assert its geostrategic interests., Commander, German Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

This thesis poses the question of how NATO can prevail against Russian propaganda that aims to undermine the alliance that has defended Europe for nearly 75 years. Particular attention is devoted to the visual element of propaganda found in posters, photomontages, drawings, and film used by the Soviet Union during the Cold War in its campaign against NATO, and more recently by the Russian Federation in its multi-faceted assault on the hearts and minds of Europe. The thesis analyzes these phenomena in the context of studies by scholars Jo Fox and Peter Paret on how conflict has been portrayed in art and film. The thesis argues that Russian propaganda has its antecedents in the Soviet campaign and that NATO has countered Russian propaganda. The thesis compares NATO’s response to Soviet propaganda during the Cold War to NATO’s more recent efforts to counter Russian propaganda, notably the establishment of the Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence. Case studies examine the use of propaganda and public information by both Russia and NATO relating to Zapad 2017 and Trident Juncture 2018. The thesis concludes with recommendations on ways in which NATO can prevail in this critical battle for influence and enhance its effectiveness., http://archive.org/details/victoryinthegrey1094564862, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The gulf between the West and Russia has widened again since the annexation of Crimea, leading to worries that Moscow will use Crimea as a blueprint for the Baltics. This thesis argues that Russia does not, in fact, view both regions equally. When scholars report Vladimir Putin uses tools of the past for today, they prove how Russia’s democratization failed. But the discourse on Russia’s strategy abroad underrates how this path affects Moscow’s foreign policy. This thesis explains how Moscow projects its domestic mindset beyond Russia. The analysis compares Crimea and the Baltics by unpacking historical claims through the prism of Russian identity and its myths in relation to legitimacy. It explains that Russian myths reinforce the identity’s credibility based on values. Therein, the drive to secure legitimacy and regain lost grandeur dominate the mindset connecting Moscow’s national and global politics. The Baltic states are outside the Russian World and a screen for revanchist projection—a competition zone inside NATO. By contrast, Crimea is a unique symbol for Russianness. The West should recognize that Russia competes in terms of values. Consequently, the West’s premise should be to regain the strategic initiative by hindering the Kremlin from dictating the time, place, and topic for the competition., Lieutenant Colonel, German Air Force, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, Russia has embarked on a massive military modernization program that it hopes will enable it to again compete with the United States as a global power. In particular, Moscow is using three rapidly deployable, low-cost military tools—military-technical cooperation, private military and security companies as proxy forces, and peacekeeping forces—to seize opportunities created by the changing geopolitical environment in order to expand Russia’s reach and influence. This thesis examines these tools across a number of cases in order to answer the following questions: How is Russia using these military tools to achieve its objectives? What trends can be identified across regions? What are the implications for U.S. foreign and security policies? This thesis finds that, on the whole, Moscow is using these tools with the primary tactical goal of projecting power and rapidly exploiting opportunities to influence the outcome of events on the ground in hopes of achieving strategic success for Russia. These three tools help Moscow project power and allow Russia to gain influence while preventing escalation into open confrontation with the United States or other military powers. In response, the United States and its partners should seek to expose these activities and engage with each other on areas of mutual interest to weaken the effects of these tools., Outstanding Thesis, Major, United States Marine Corps, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The United States and its allies have been subjected to clandestine interference campaigns led by the Russian government for nearly a century. The targets and mechanisms of subversive Kremlin influence have varied over the decades, but themes such as seeking to tamper with electoral processes have seen refinement and renewed vigor in the 21st century. From the inception of the Soviet Union to the era of Vladimir Putin, this thesis investigates the targets and mechanisms of subversive Russian influence—with particular focus on election meddling—to identify the greatest U.S. vulnerabilities to such interference campaigns. We determined that the Kremlin possesses a wide variety of well-honed tools such as disinformation, cyberattacks, and forgeries that allow it to apply stress to democratic systems and exploit rival nations’ internal divisions, and that it has had success in deploying such tools in a number of Western democratic elections since 2014. We find that significant damage to the credibility of elections and the U.S. government is a viable vulnerability for Russian interference campaigns, and that mounting defensive measures against and mitigation thereof must be a top priority for U.S. national and homeland security entities.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s assessment of the changes in the strategic security environment has prompted an evolving approach to, and definition of, strategic deterrence and comprehensive military modernization to compete in such a dynamic environment. This thesis will explore Russia’s three distinct stages and approaches of strategic deterrence, starting in 1999 to the present day. It is from the influence of these approaches to strategic deterrence that Russia developed its corresponding security, defense, and military strategies, doctrines, and policies. This thesis focuses on the roles, utilization, and modernization efforts of the Russian Federation Navy (RFN) throughout each distinct stage. Russia currently regards the RFN as one of the most effective instruments of strategic deterrence. This thesis evaluates the effectiveness of the RFN across key Russian maritime domains: the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea, and the Arctic and Atlantic oceans. Many challenges prevent Russia from achieving the global naval notoriety it desires, and, for the foreseeable future, it relies on high-end cruise missiles and will direct naval operations in the maritime domains contiguous to Russia.

Since August 2008, Russia has increased the use of soft power tactics in Georgia. Disinformation, propaganda, and fake news have become part of the everyday narrative spread by Russian media. Many scholars have studied Russian soft power and concluded that it mainly targeted Georgia after that country’s strong intention toward integration with the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia’s aim was to alter public opinion of Georgia and threaten the country’s image in the international society. However, one vulnerable region in northeastern Georgia has not received much attention. This study takes a closer look at Pankisi Gorge, a valley that borders Russia’s breakaway republic of Chechnya and populated mostly with ethnic Kists of the Islamic faith. Through the analysis of Russian media stories about Pankisi, this thesis finds that the valley is often presented as a “nest of terrorism,” creating a false sense of threat in the entire region. Additionally, this thesis discusses how Russia can destabilize Pankisi through fake news and actually use the situation for its possible military intervention in Georgia.

The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) broke apart violently in the early 1990s. This thesis explores evidence about the root causes of Yugoslavia’s turbulent disintegration. It evaluates the cogency of the most prominent suggested causes of the SFRY’s breakup, and draws conclusions regarding the most convincing explanations. The most frequently discussed potential causes of the breakup include nationalism, international politics, economic competition, contention among the Yugoslav political elites, and “ancient hatreds.” From the creation of Yugoslavia in 1918 until the combat began in 1991, there was constant tension between the different ethnicities, and the fiercest disputes were between the Serbs and the Croats. The thesis concludes that none of the proposed causes alone can provide an explanation for the SFRY’s dissolution, which involved the interaction of multiple factors. However, the self-interested republic-level Yugoslav political elites, backed by certain foreign countries, constituted the decisive factor in the Yugoslav federation’s collapse., http://archive.org/details/originsofthebrea1094562784, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Americans were largely surprised when the intelligence community revealed that Russia had launched a widespread influence operation focused on the 2016 U.S. presidential election. With their high-tech, social-media focus, these practices struck many as a newly implemented tactic against the United States. However, throughout the Cold War, the Soviet Union developed and deployed influence operations—then called "active measures"—against the United States and its allies. During the last decade of the Cold War, the United States actively and systematically combatted this threat. But with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, active measures seemed to fade into history as well. This thesis argues that Russia has reincarnated this Cold War relic and is using active measures throughout the world to advance its strategic interests, especially in its post-Soviet space. Russia is utilizing 21st-century technology to gain access to Western populations and sow discord, distrust, and disorder. Thus, this thesis examines the Soviet-era active measures, the U.S. Cold War countermeasures, and Russian active measures today to make recommendations on ways to counter this form of malevolent influence. This thesis finds that the United States should organize purposefully and consistently to counter Russian active measures, educate the American public to increase its resiliency against foreign influence, and intensify its strategic public diplomacy efforts throughout Europe., http://archive.org/details/sovietactivemeas1094561246, First Lieutenant, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

NATO’s southern flank has been exposed to a wide range of threats and challenges from Middle Eastern and North African instability, including terrorism, illegal trafficking, and mass migration. Against this backdrop, since 2008, Russia has increased its Mediterranean naval activity to levels not observed since the Cold War. This thesis investigates the extent to which the perceptions and policies of France, Italy, and Spain have shifted in response to Russia’s expanded Mediterranean presence. Although its naval presence was once considered a low-priority threat, Russia’s recent behavior has led to some significant changes in the perceptions and security policies of these Allies. Greater attention to this Mediterranean naval challenge has been consistent with the intensification of Russian military aggression, and these Allies increasingly share Alliance concerns about Russia’s conventional military threat. However, immediate nontraditional security issues remain a more urgent priority, a circumstance that limits the extent to which these Allies are willing to regard Russia’s naval presence as a threat. While both unilateral and multilateral initiatives have been steps toward improving security and stability in the Mediterranean, these Allies continue to seek the right set of measures needed to address this dynamic environment., http://archive.org/details/russiannavalacti1094561337, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis examines the involvement of Belarus in European and regional security organizations with respect to its relationship to the Russian Federation and the West. Modern Belarus’s geopolitical situation, history, relatively stable government, and need to seek its own development path makes this case study distinct in terms of European security. To analyze Belarus’s shifting behavior, a comparative case study approach is used. Special attention is given to Belarus’s history and the evolution of its relations between the East and the West, with an emphasis on the country’s domestic events, cooperation with regional security organizations, and changes in its foreign policy. The research demonstrates that, despite its turbulent history and uneasy process of self-determination, modern Belarus’s foreign policy and national security posture are based on a commitment to neutrality and peacemaking efforts within Europe. Ties with Russia and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s Soviet heritage are two major constraints preventing Belarus from developing closer relationships with Western security organizations and the United States. However, current trends show that Minsk is becoming more open to developing relations with the West, while maintaining prudent relations with Russia, thus possibly serving as a future bridge between East and West within Europe., http://archive.org/details/betweenrussiaand1094561368, Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis analyzes the role of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) as an instrument of Russian soft power in the Putin era. Soft power is a means to attract allies and support for a nation’s objectives in foreign policy. Russia has a dwindling number of soft power weapons, with the ROC being one of its most remaining prominent soft power assets. The relationship between the ROC and Kremlin is nuanced, both gaining legitimacy and authority from one another. They share a similar conservative worldview and the narrative of a Russian world, which is seen to be Russia’s prominent ideology exported in its perceived near abroad. Investigated in-depth in Ukraine, the ROC’s influence has met failure there, demonstrated by the schism between the ROC and the Ukraine Church. This is contrasted by its use in Georgia, where, owing to the warm relationship between the ROC and the Georgian Orthodox Church, influence via the ROC appears to have found a measure of limited success. However, Russia’s ability to exert soft power through the ROC appears to be waning overall, particularly after the church schism in Ukraine. Ultimately, the future of the ROC as a mechanism of Russia’s soft power remains in doubt., http://archive.org/details/holywarhowputinw1094563444, Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis analyzes the naval policies of the Soviet and Russian Federation navies, examines their various shifts in naval strategy, and provides implications for future U.S. naval strategy. During most of Stalin’s rule, the Soviet navy implemented a green-water naval strategy, focusing on coastal defense. Prior to his death, Stalin began to shift his navy, at least partially, to a blue-water strategy, concentrating on building his Black and Baltic Sea fleets. After Stalin’s death, Admiral Gorshkov was appointed commander-in-chief of the Soviet navy and began implementing a blue-water strategy. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia’s navy has been in a state of disrepair. In 2017, President Putin signed the Russian Federation’s most sweeping naval policy reform since the Soviet era. Many challenges, however, will prevent the Russian Federation from fully implementing its naval policy and producing a blue-water fleet. Instead, the Russian Federation will be forced to produce what they can afford: a green-water navy, submarines, and missiles. This is important for the United States because of the advances in Russian missile technology, which threaten the United States’ blue-water navy. Ultimately, the high-end fight with Russia at sea will likely be in the littorals. Therefore, the United States should balance its naval forces and produce a green-water capability to challenge Russia in the littorals., http://archive.org/details/sovietnavalstrat1094563517, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Anti-government protest movements have been increasingly significant in Russian politics. This thesis investigates why these movements have risen, as well as if and how they resonate with the broader segments of Russian society. It draws inferences based on scholarly research regarding the durability of these movements in the short and long terms based on social movement theory. Through the application of this theory, it is found that mobilization is the most determining characteristic in measuring the opposition’s potential durability. With the Russian government’s thus far successful campaign to suppress anti-government movements and mobilization numbers too minimal to generate a necessity for genuine and lasting change, hope for the resilience of the country’s opposition force is nominal.

This thesis examines the relationships between Russia’s arms export industry and three major customer states in Asia. What motivated China, India, and Vietnam to procure conventional arms from Russian rather than other major suppliers, particularly in the post–Cold War era? The answer is a complex mix of strategic goals, political rationale, financial affordability, technological suitability, and old habit. This thesis centers on individual case studies for each of the three customer states, and is bookended by an opening review of the modern Russian arms industry and a final discussion of common themes and what to expect from future arms transfers from Russia. It uses press reporting, analysis by independent organizations, and a framework incorporating theories of international relations to address the research question. The main intention of this thesis is to examine the role of arms transfers across multiple states both as a practice per se, and as a component of national (and international) policy; additionally, it is designed to provide value to military personnel who wish to become more familiar with this important topic.

This thesis contributes to the debate regarding the Department of Defense's assessment that the Russian Federation possesses an "escalate to de-escalate" strategy. This research approaches the question through analysis of official doctrine, statements, nuclear capabilities and military exercises of the Russian Federation following the Cold War. The Russian Federation develops weapons for the employment of nonstrategic nuclear weapons and exercises the use of nonstrategic nuclear weapons during major exercises. Its official military doctrine is conducive to an "escalate to de-escalate" strategy. This research concludes that the Russian Federation assigns both an "escalate to de-escalate" and operational role for nonstrategic nuclear weapons. The Department of Defense is correct in its assessment of Russian nuclear strategy and should pursue initiatives that avoid legitimizing the use of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, contribute to strategic miscalculations, or set the conditions for a security dilemma between the United States and the Russian Federation., http://archive.org/details/escalatetodeesca1094563469, Major, United States Army, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.