FACTORS INFLUENCING POST-SOVIET RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT

The protracted Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has existed in the South Caucasus since the Soviet era. Throughout this decades-long war, more than 20,000 deaths have occurred and 1.5 million persons have been displaced. The Russian Federation remains a perennial mediator of the conflict as it seeks to further its special relationships with Armenia and Azerbaijan, consistent with its objectives in its entire near abroad. To that end, Russia continues to exercise its foreign policy in this deadlocked but intense territorial dispute over the mountainous region between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia’s participation in multinational organizations, unilateral peace-brokering efforts, and bilateral relationships ensure that it maintains its hegemony in the region while also impeding international peace efforts. During the 2020 flareup known as the Second Karabakh War, Russia retained its role as the primary negotiator by unilaterally brokering a ceasefire and deploying nearly 2,000 Russian Federation peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh. However, complicating matters further is Azerbaijan’s continual movement toward Turkey, Armenia’s geopolitical isolation, and Turkey’s increased, competitive role in the region. Factors in Russia’s historical intervention, Armenian and Azerbaijani perceptions of Russia’s intentions, and Turkey’s increased role in the region continue to complicate and reinforce Russian foreign policy initiatives in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Outstanding Thesis
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