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L'Agenda 2030 constitue un véritable projet de transformation des activités humaines, des modes de vie, de production et de consommation. L'innovation est indispensable à ces transformations. Mais l'innovation technologique seule ne suffira pas. Même "responsable", elle ne parviendra pas, seule, à infléchir les trajectoires. L'innovation doit s'inscrire dans un véritable projet de société, qui modifie radicalement les modes d'être, d'avoir, de faire. Elle est ainsi tout autant sociale, organisationnelle, d'usage, financière ou politique que technologique. Partout sur les territoires, les innovations se multiplient, qui transforment déjà nos sociétés, et il est indispensable d'organiser un dialogue continu sur les visions d'avenir qui sous-tendent ces innovations pour que tous les acteurs soient partie prenante des systèmes d'innovation, et que ceux-ci permettent d'emprunter des trajectoires de développement durable spécifiques et pertinentes pour chaque pays et chaque société concernée. Cette approche va nécessairement à l'encontre d'une innovation conçue comme résultant de transferts unilatéraux de technologies. Elle plaide davantage en faveur du soutien au renforcement des capacités locales de recherche et d'innovation. La coopération internationale pour l'innovation est indispensable pour que tous les pays puissent atteindre les ODD, mais elle ne doit pas être pensée selon les termes stérilisants d'un transfert de technologies déjà existantes entre grandes régions, mais plutôt comme l'appui à la construction, dans chaque pays, d'un système d'innovation ouvert, reliant les acteurs, publics et privés, impliqués dans le changement.

Future studies were designed to critically address trends, or “business as usual” analyses, to question, and make visible boundary making processes that separate endogenous and exogenous variables, determinisms and random events, and upon which public policies are based. How can future studies contribute to shed the light on the political choices that underlie environmental policies? To address this issue, this article is based on the study of the Blue Plan, an ambitious international foresight programme designed to feed international and regional debates on cooperation on environmental matters of concern. Analyzing the foresight studies carried out by the Blue Plan on water issues allows us discussing their impacts on environmental public policies in the Mediterranean countries, as well as the nature of the Blue Plan and its strategic action.; Les réflexions sur la prospective sont nées d'une critique de la tendance, d'une remise en question des frontières entre variables exogènes et endogènes, entre déterminismes et hasards, sur lesquelles les politiques publiques se fondent. Comment la prospective peut-elle alors contribuer à mettre en lumière les choix politiques déterminants qui sous-tendent les politiques environnementales ? En s'appuyant sur l'exemple du Plan Bleu, un ambitieux programme international de prospective chargé d'alimenter le débat sur la coopération en matière d'environnement en Méditerranée, cet article analyse plus spécifiquement les travaux engagés dans le domaine de l'eau, et discute de leurs effets à la fois sur les politiques publiques environnementales des pays méditerranéens concernés, ainsi que sur la nature même du Plan Bleu et son action stratégique.

International audience; The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

One of the key questions facing the planet is how to safely feed at an acceptable cost an estimated nine billion people in 2050, whilst protecting the environment, limiting the effects of agriculture on climate change, and coping with the effects of climate change itself. This is the question behind the Agrimonde foresight project1. The authors of this article explain how Agrimonde adopted a foresight approach in which researchers considered two scenarios describing sharply contrasting futures.

National audience

National audience

National audience

National audience

Expertise collective sur l'estuaire de Seine GIP Seine Aval

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International audience; EMODNet, VLIZ - Integrated Marine Informations System - IMIS

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

This chapter provides a retrospective overview of the world foodeconomy over four decades (1961–2003), with a world divided into six regions [those of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)], and using material generated by Agribiom. We will outline here how Agribiom can be used to analyse or revisit the past, while subsequent chapters will show how it can be used to debate and simulate new possible states of the world, along with all the assumptions and interpretations associated with these simulations.

Agribiom is a quantitative tool devoted to the analysis of the world’s production, trade and use of biomass. Its construction was initiated in early 2006 at CIRAD, with the aim of creating a tool for use in collective scenario-building, such as the Agrimonde project, and in hybrid modelling exercises.