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Growing evidence suggests that childhood trauma is associated with poorer cardiovascular health in adulthood, but few studies have examined potential mediators of these associations. We examined the links between different forms of childhood trauma (i.e., abuse, neglect, cumulative trauma) and cardiovascular health and explored potential mediators. Cross-sectional data from 1,251 participants in the National Survey of Midlife Development in the United States’ II Biomarker Project were analyzed. Path analyses were conducted to examine the associations between childhood trauma and cardiovascular health (i.e., American Heart Association’s Life’s Simple 7 [LS7] score). Depressive symptoms and sleep quality were explored as potential mediators, and exploratory analyses examined whether these associations were moderated by sex. Women reported more severe childhood emotional and sexual abuse and emotional neglect, p < .001 to p = .018, and higher LS7 scores, p = .027, than men. Path analyses demonstrated the total effects of increasing severity of all forms of childhood trauma with LS7 scores were significant, and cumulative childhood trauma was inversely associated with LS7 score Bs = −0.306– −0.076, p < .001–p = .048. The range of total effects of different forms of childhood trauma on LS7 scores mediated by depressive symptoms and sleep quality was 26.8%–57.5%. Sex moderated the associations between all forms of childhood trauma and cardiovascular health. Longitudinal studies are needed that examine mediators of the associations between childhood trauma and cardiovascular health. Findings suggest sex-specific, trauma-informed approaches for cardiovascular disease prevention in adults exposed to childhood trauma may be needed.

Background: There is a lack of evidence of the complicated pathways of underlying determinants in the phases of physical activity. The purpose of this study was to evaluate simultaneously a set of potential determinants on the initiation and maintenance phases of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA). Methods: The longitudinal data of 54,359 Korean adults aged 40–69 years from the Health Examinees study were used. The median follow-up duration was 4.2 years. The self-reported durations per week of LTPA was repeatedly assessed. Based on previous longitudinal studies, the potential determinants were selected, and hypothetical models were constructed that consider the complex associations between the determinants. The standardized coefficients for direct and indirect effects were estimated using path analysis to differentiate contributions of mediation from the total effects. Results: In the total population, age, education, chronic diseases, smoking, depression symptoms, and self-rated health were significantly associated with both initiation and maintenance phases. Income (B = 0.025) and social supports (B = 0.019) were associated only with the initiation phase. Waist-to-hip ratio (B = −0.042) and stress (B = −0.035) were associated only with the maintenance phase. After stratifying by sex, the significant effects of education, chronic diseases, and smoking were found only in men. The initiation phase-specific effects of income and social supports and the maintenance phase-specific effects of stress were found only in women. It was estimated that indirect effects contributed approximately 15% of the total effect. Conclusion: The findings suggested that there were initiation- or maintenance-specific determinants of leisure-time physical activity according to sex.

Maintenance task prioritization is essential for a production system, especially in the case of limited available resources. In this paper, the overall line efficiency (OLE), which comprehensively evaluates production line productivity and processability, is adopted as the objective to develop maintenance prioritization. An OLE centred maintenance prioritization policy is proposed, which assigns priorities according to the influences of the specific characteristics of equipment operational reliability on OLE. In order to correctly allocate limited maintenance resources to truly critical equipment and achieve good maintenance effect, equipment influences on OLE are analysed from the level of the specific performances of their operational reliability, i.e. equipment mean time between stops (mtbs), mean time to resume from stops (mttr) and buffer size N. Considering the interactions between these parameters, a surrogate model-extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (SM-EFAST) process is integrated to accurately and rapidly analyse the total effects of them on OLE. Finally, a case study has been carried out to verify the proposed OLE centred maintenance prioritization method, and higher OLE and lower total maintenance cost were achieved.

This project will estimate the total effect on subjective wellbeing of objective norms of Covid-protective behaviors on happiness and the extent to which these are direct or indirect through fear of Covid-19. Personal efficacy and Education will be controlled.

Crossover designs involve two types of treatment effects, a direct effect and a carryover effect, and several optimality results are available for inferring on these two effects separately. However, an aim of a designed experiment is to recommend a single treatment which will be used over longer time periods. When this treatment is used over many periods, the effect on the subject at any time period will be the total of its direct and carryover effects, and so, at the designed experiment stage it is important to study the sum of the direct and carryover effects of the same treatment, that is, the total effect. Not much is known on the optimality of designs for this total effect. In this article we obtain universally optimal designs for total effects under a non-circular model with two periods and correlated errors. We also report some highly efficient designs in this context.

“Fiber-reinforced concretes” are increasingly being used, among which steel fibers with stirrups are inevitably used. Since limited research has been conducted in this area, little is known about how SFRC beams with stirrups are designed. Only a few guidelines are embedded in ACI 318 for minimum shear reinforcement of SFRC beams. This study performed an experimental program to explore the combined effects of stirrups and steel fibers on the shear strength of SFRC beams. Thus, twenty beams with different fiber volume fraction, compressive strength of concrete and stirrups were fabricated and tested. A new equation was formulated for the shear strength of SFRC beams by employing the GP technique. This equation performed well in terms of accuracy compared to the experimental results and other equations proposed in previous works. Experimental and analytical results indicated that the combined effects of stirrups and steel fibers on the shear strength of SFRC beams are not identical to the total effects of applying them alone.

Purpose This study aims to explore the links among supplier relationship (SR), customer relationship (CR) and supply performance (SP): cost, flexibility, partnership and responsiveness for manufacturing sector in Thailand. Design/methodology/approach Having extensively reviewed literature, the survey instruments were proposed and validated by experts and statistical techniques. Path analysis of structural equation modeling was used to assess the hypotheses. Findings It revealed that CR has significant positive direct effects on every SP construct. SR has a significant positive direct effect on CR but has no significant positive effects on SP. However, SR has significant positive total effects and indirect effects on every SP through CR. Originality/value This study presents insights into the arguments about the links among SR, CR and SP. SR should not be introduced alone. It should be applied together with CR to improve SP.

This study focuses on studying the mechanisms and conditions upon which perceived external image could play an important role in raising up employees’ positive outcomes. Using an integrative approach of the social identity, social exchange and stakeholders theories; the study aims at investigating the effect of perceived external image on employees’ job satisfaction and job involvement, directly and indirectly through the mediating effect of organizational identification. The study also aims at determining the moderating role of perceived organizational distinctiveness on the relationship between perceived external image and organizational identification. Using regression analysis, on a sample of 279 employees working in large food and beverages trade organizations in Alexandria, the hypotheses were supported; where perceived external image has positive total effects on both of job satisfaction and job involvement, in addition to the partial mediating role of organizational identification on the above relationships. The results also revealed that perceived organizational distinctiveness plays the moderating role in strengthening the relationship between perceived external image and organizational identification.

This study examined the mediating role of net interest margin (NIM) on the nexus between market structure and banks’ performance. Two ordinary least-squares models with a path analysis model were applied to analyze the data. The first regression model measured the indirect effects of market structure, total assets, geographic expansion, and specialization on ROA through NIM and revealed that the higher market share of loans positively effects on bank’s performance and statistically insignificant. Similarly, the geographic expansion was observed to hurt the bank’s ROA, but statistically insignificant. On the other hand, the indirect effect of total asset size and specialization was negative, but the first one was statistically significant, and the second was statistically insignificant. The result of the second regression model measured the direct effect of antecedent variables on the ROA and revealed that the market structure, geographic expansion, and specialization were negatively related to performance measure ROA. However, the direct effect of total assets size was positively related to ROA and statistically significant. The results of the two regression models based on total effects revealed that a higher bank size appeared favorable to Nepalese CBs and was found to have positive effects on ROA but the geographic expansion was a negative effect on ROA, and statistically significant. The results of the study might be helpful to Nepalese bankers, regularity authorities, and other concerned stakeholders to take an effective decision about the direct, indirect, and total effects of chosen antecedent variables on consequent variables through the mediating role of NIM.

Research on test change often documents high-stakes English test impact on English language learning, whereas evidence for simultaneous impact on affective predictors of learning is still missing. We tested a theoretical model positing that changing high-stake English tests (English Language Requirements for University Entrance, in this study) influences learners’ attitude, perceived test-anxiety, learning stress, and motivation for learning, and that perceived motivation, test-anxiety, and learning stress mediate the link between attitude and achievement (English language achievement). Results of a structural equation modeling (SEM) confirmed the model yielding support for the strong total effects of attitude and motivation on achievement (N = 468 EFL learners). Under such a program, test-anxiety and learning stress negatively correlated with attitude, mediated the effects of attitude on achievement, and their joint effect negatively influenced motivation having the second strongest direct effect on achievement. Motivation was also documented as important mediator of the effects of attitude, text-anxiety, and learning stress on achievement. The model was used as a means to validate the new tests in terms of their perceived consequences and effectiveness and, in effect, helped observe a discrepancy between the idealized policy behind the change and the real practices within the change context. Educational implications are discussed.

Cluster-randomized trials are often conducted to assess vaccine effects. Defining estimands of interest before conducting a trial is integral to the alignment between a study’s objectives and the data to be collected and analyzed. This paper considers estimands and estimators for overall, indirect, and total vaccine effects in trials, where clusters of individuals are randomized to vaccine or control. The scenario is considered where individuals self-select whether to participate in the trial, and the outcome of interest is measured on all individuals in each cluster. Unlike the overall, indirect, and total effects, the direct effect of vaccination is shown in general not to be estimable without further assumptions, such as no unmeasured confounding. An illustrative example motivated by a cluster-randomized typhoid vaccine trial is provided.

Background A number of studies in the past have looked at determinants of postnatal care. However, many of them do not distinguish between postnatal care (PNC) before discharge and after discharge for women delivering at health facilities. Conceptually and practically, factors associated with PNC before discharge and after discharge should be different. This study examines key factors for maternal and newborn PNC before discharge. Methods Data from the 2015–16 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey were used for the study. Three categorical endogenous variables examined in the study were whether or not mothers received a postnatal check between birth and facility discharge, whether or not newborns received a postnatal check between birth and facility discharge and whether or not women delivered by cesarean section. Delivery by cesarean section was considered as a mediator in the model. The main predictor of interest was type of health facility where women delivered. Other exogenous variables included were women’s age at most recent birth, number of antenatal visits, women’s education, household wealth, parity, newborn size, region of the country and residence. Simultaneous equation modeling was used to examine the associations of interest. Results 47% of the mothers and 68% of the newborns had PNC before facility discharge. The total and direct effects of delivering in private hospitals on maternal and newborn PNC before facility discharge were significantly higher than the effects of delivering in government hospitals. The total effects of delivering in government health centers or health posts on maternal and newborn PNC before facility discharge were significantly lower than the effects of delivering in government hospitals. Delivering by cesarean section compared to delivering vaginally was positively associated with maternal and newborn PNC before facility discharge. Conclusion It is important that all women and newborns receive PNC before they are discharged from the facility regardless of whether or not they had a complication. The same standard of quality PNC should be provided equitably across all types and affiliations of health facilities.

Servant leadership’s positive effects for employees and the organization are well-documented, but servant leadership theory postulates that servant leaders prioritize people more than production. This untested supposition raises questions about whether servant leadership’s emphasis on employee support relative to goal achievement has negative consequences for a unit’s financial performance through group organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) that constrain servant leadership’s positive effect on unit performance. The resource allocation framework applied to OCBs suggests that trade-offs exist between OCBs and financial performance because both behaviors impose demands on employees’ limited time. In addition, a work group’s social norms may exert subtle forms of pressure on group members to increase their helping behaviors. This pressure may incur process loss that negatively affects financial performance. Data consisting of 546 employees from 103 bank branches within a large Midwestern community bank support servant leadership’s positive direct effect on branch financial performance; its stronger relationship with support climate than goal achievement climate; and its negative indirect effect on branch financial performance through support climate and branch OCBs that weakened servant leadership’s total positive effect on branch financial performance. Goal achievement climate was not significantly associated with branch OCBs. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

[EN] This paper compares the total impact of cultural and creative industries (CCIs) on per capita income of countries, regions and municipalities. We estimate the total effects of CCIs in 78 developed and developing countries in 5 continents, in 275 European regions and in 518 municipalities in the European region of Valencia, using data obtained from multiple databases and nonparametric local linear least squares. The average effects of CCIs are positive in the three territorial scales, in both low- and high-income locations, and increase in conjunction with increases in development, with high and very high developed places showing greater impacts. CCIs are, thus, a powerful resource for improving the well-being of rich and poor places at all geographic scales; however, they also act as a double-edged sword, as they increase inequalities between places., This work was supported by Horizon 2020 Framework Programme [grant number 870935]

Online repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS), applied while subjects are performing a task, is widely used to disrupt brain regions underlying cognition. However, online rTMS has also induced “paradoxical enhancement”. Given the rapid proliferation of this approach, it is crucial to develop a better understanding of how online stimulation influences cognition, and the optimal parameters to achieve desired effects. To accomplish this goal, a quantitative meta-analysis was performed with random-effects models fitted to reaction time (RT) and accuracy data. The final dataset included 126 studies published between 1998 and 2016, with 244 total effects for reaction times, and 202 for accuracy. Meta-analytically, rTMS at 10 Hz and 20 Hz disrupted accuracy for attention, executive, language, memory, motor, and perception domains, while no effects were found with 1 Hz or 5 Hz. Stimulation applied at and 10 and 20 Hz slowed down RTs in attention and perception tasks. No performance enhancement was found. Our meta-regression analysis showed that fMRI-guided targeting and short inter-trial interval durations are associated with increased degree of disruption with rTMS.

Purpose – The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on tourism and other economic sectors included in the tourism value chain in Croatia. The evaluation of total effects is important in order to evaluate effectiveness of policy measures introduced by Croatian government. Methodology – The estimation of COVID -19 effects on Croatian economy is based on standard input-output model. The open I-O model quantifies indirect effects generated in the tourism value added chain. Closed I-O model estimates induced effects related to the decrease in the net disposable income of the employees which participated in the tourism sector production chain. Findings – Strong reduction in international tourism caused by COVID -19 resulted in significant decrease in activity of many other industries. Besides hotels and restaurant, the most affected sectors were transport, trade, food industry, sports and entertainment services. Total value of indirect and induced tourism effects is bigger than value of direct effects in terms of employment and value added because of multiplier effect. Government subsidies in the form of income support for companies which retained employees have only short-term and limited effects. Negative COVID -19 effects were partially mitigated by output rise in other domestic sectors. GDP decline was more pronounced than GVA since indirect taxes, notably VAT and excise duties were particularly sensitive to negative trends in tourism activity. Contribution – The methodology applied provides the reliable analytical background for analyses of impact of negative exogenous shock affecting tourism and total Croatian economy and assessment of government policy response effectiveness

Background: Vaccine hesitancy, associated with medical mistrust, confidence, complacency and knowledge of vaccines, presents an obstacle to the campaign against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The relationship between vaccine hesitancy and conspiracy beliefs may be a key determinant of the success of vaccination campaigns. This study provides a conceptual framework to explain the impact of pathways from conspiracy beliefs to COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy with regard to medical mistrust, confidence, complacency and knowledge of vaccines. Methods: A non-probability study was conducted with 1015 respondents between 17 April and 28 May 2021. Conspiracy beliefs were measured using the coronavirus conspiracy scale of Coronavirus Explanations, Attitudes, and Narratives Survey (OCEANS), and vaccine conspiracy beliefs scale. Medical mistrust was measured using the Oxford trust in doctors and developers questionnaire, and attitudes to doctors and medicine scale. Vaccine confidence and complacency were measured using the Oxford COVID-19 vaccine confidence and complacency scale. Knowledge of vaccines was measured using the vaccination knowledge scale. Vaccine hesitancy was measured using the Oxford COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy scale. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to evaluate the measurement models for conspiracy beliefs, medical mistrust, confidence, complacency, and knowledge of vaccines and vaccine hesitancy. The structural equation modeling (SEM) approach was used to analyze the direct and indirect pathways from conspiracy beliefs to vaccine hesitancy. Results: Of the 894 (88.1%) respondents who were willing to take the COVID-19 vaccine without any hesitancy, the model fit with the CFA models for conspiracy beliefs, medical mistrust, confidence, complacency and knowledge of vaccines, and vaccine hesitancy was deemed acceptable. Conspiracy beliefs had significant direct (β = 0.294), indirect (β = 0.423) and total (β = 0.717) effects on vaccine hesitancy, 41.0% of the total effect was direct, and 59.0% was indirect. Conspiracy beliefs significantly predicted vaccine hesitancy by medical mistrust (β = 0.210), confidence and complacency (β = 0.095), knowledge (β = 0.079) of vaccines, explaining 29.3, 11.0, and 13.2% of the total effects, respectively. Conspiracy beliefs significantly predicted vaccine hesitancy through the sequential mediation of knowledge of vaccines and medical mistrust (β = 0.016), explaining 2.2% of the total effects. Conspiracy beliefs significantly predicted vaccine hesitancy through the sequential mediation of confidence and complacency, and knowledge of vaccines (β = 0.023), explaining 3.2% of the total effects. The SEM approach indicated an acceptable model fit (χ2/df = 2.464, RMSEA = 0.038, SRMR = 0.050, CFI = 0.930, IFI = 0.930). Conclusions: The sample in this study showed lower vaccine hesitancy, and this study identified pathways from conspiracy beliefs to COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in China. Conspiracy beliefs had direct and indirect effects on vaccine hesitancy, and the indirect association was determined through medical mistrust, confidence, complacency, and knowledge of vaccines. In addition, both direct and indirect pathways from conspiracy beliefs to vaccine hesitancy were identified as intervention targets to reduce COVID–19 vaccine hesitancy.

This research examines the effects of COVID-19 perceptions and negative experiences during the pandemic time on parental healthy eating behaviour and whether these relationships interact with a parent’s gender. We ran a survey of parents who had at least one child aged 3 to 17 years old living in the United Kingdom. We received 384 valid responses, which were analysed via a variance-based structural equation modelling approach to test our hypotheses. The results revealed that COVID-19 perceptions effects were Janus-faced. While they indirectly and negatively impact healthy eating behaviour mediated by triggering negative experiences during the pandemic, COVID-19 perceptions, however, directly get parents, especially fathers, more engaged into healthy eating behaviour— making COVID-19 perceptions total effects positive on healthy eating behaviour. This explorative model is novel in the sense that it is the first of its kind to cast light on how parental healthy eating behaviour can be shaped in pandemic time. The research is particularly timely due to the uncertain times in which the research is situated, i.e., the worldwide pandemic (also termed COVID-19); the paper brings to light on how family eating practices can undergo dramatic shifts during acute crises.

There are inconsistent findings concerning the efficacy of consensus messages to persuade individuals to hold scientifically supported positions on climate change. In this experiment, we tested the impact of consensus messages on skeptics’ climate beliefs and attitudes and investigated how the decision to pretest initial climate beliefs and attitudes prior to consensus message exposure may influence results. We found that although consensus messages led individuals to report higher scientific agreement estimates, total effects on key variables were likely an artifact of study design; consensus messages only affected climate attitudes and beliefs when they were measured both before and after message exposure. In the absence of a pretest, we did not observe significant total effects of consensus messages on climate outcomes. These results highlight the limitations of consensus messaging strategies at reducing political polarization and the importance of experimental designs that mimic real-world contexts. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03200-2.

Global use of carsharing has increased. The dominant model is station-based carsharing, but free-floating providers are continuously increasing their businesses volumes. Carsharing customers have been described as environmentally conscious with a high preference for mobility providers who show responsibility and trustworthiness. This generalization of usage determinants appears to be questionable given the background of current market developments. Existing research in the area is lacking a context-sensitive view of the antecedents of potential carsharing usage. Do environmental concerns and trust have similar effects on usage intention of carsharing, when free-floating providers implement business models that are more flexible, digital, and sophisticated? Using a standardized online survey, this study paper applied a framework adapted from the Theory of Planned Behavior (ToPB) that included the constructs of trust and environmental concern. The focus was on Share Now and Stadtmobil, which are the largest free-floating and station-based providers, respectively, in Germany. Using structural equation modeling, the study explored potential perception differences between both business models among German consumers. Although not significant, results indicate slightly higher total effects of environmental concern and initial trust on the usage intention of station-based compared to free-floating carsharing. Depending on the type of carsharing, different priorities should be set in the respective business model.

Objectives To investigate whether childhood socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with cognitive function, and what factors might mediate the associations. Method Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and within frameworks of the latency model, the pathway model and the accumulation model, we quantified direct and indirect pathways between childhood SES and cognitive function for Chinese middle-aged and older adults aged 45+ by structural equations modeling. Results We found significant direct, indirect and total effects of childhood SES on cognitive function at baseline. The indirect effects were mediated through educational attainment, household consumption, smoking behaviors and social engagement. At follow-ups, cognitive enhancement can be made by indirect pathways through educational attainment, improvement of household consumption and social engagement. Conclusion Our results supported the latency model, the pathway model and the accumulation model when considering pathways linking childhood SES to cognitive function. The findings underscored the value of taking early interventions to improve SES and cognitive function, especially among those with low childhood SES.

This paper considers both approximate and exact designs for estimating the total effects under one crossover and two interference models. They are different from the traditional block designs in the sense that the assigned treatments also affect their neighboring plots, hence a design is understood as a collection of sequences of treatments. A notable result in literature is that the circular neighbor balanced design (CNBD) is optimal among designs, which do not allow treatments to be neighbors of themselves. However, we find it necessary to allow self-neighboring, and further show that it is the best to allocate each treatment in a subblock of adjacent plots with equal or almost equal numbers of replications. This explains why the efficiency of CNBD drops down to 50% as the sequence length, say k, increases. Unlike CNBD or the designs for direct effects, our proposed designs do not try to put as many treatments in a sequence as possible. The optimal number of distinct treatments in a sequence is around 2k for crossover designs and k/0.96 for interference models, whenever they are smaller than the total number of treatments under consideration. We systematically study necessary and sufficient conditions for any design to be universally optimal under the approximate design framework, based on which algorithms for deriving optimal or efficient exact designs are proposed. This hybrid nature of cohesively combining theories with algorithms makes our method more flexible than existing ones in the following aspects. (i) Not only symmetric designs are studied, general procedures for producing asymmetric designs are also provided. (ii) Our method applies to any form of within-block covariance matrix instead of specific forms. (iii) We cover all configurations of the numbers of treatments and sequence lengths, especially for large values of them when purely computational methods are not applicable. (iv) On top of the latter, we cover a continuous spectrum of the number of sequences instead of special numbers decided by combinatorial constraints.

Bu çalışmanın amacı ekonomik büyümenin önemli dayanaklarından biri olan imalat sanayi üretim sektörünün Türkiye ekonomisi üzerindeki etkisini alt sektörleri itibariyle analiz etmek ve en etkili alt sektörleri tespit etmek suretiyle maliye politikası önerisinde bulunabilmektir. Bu amaçla; üretimin toplam değeri, emek gelirleri, sermaye gelirleri ve toplam katma değer üzerindeki etkilere odaklanılmıştır. Söz konusu etkiler ele alınırken; doğrudan, dolaylı ve uyarılmış etkilerin tümünün gözlemlenebilmesine olanak sağlayan Girdi-Çıktı analizinden yararlanılmıştır. 2015 Girdi-Çıktı tablosu verilerinin kullanıldığı analiz neticesinde yalnızca doğrudan ve dolaylı etkiler dikkate alındığında gözlemlenen bulgular ile toplam etkilerin dikkate alınması durumunda elde edilen bulguların farklılaştığı gözlemlenmiştir.

Analyzing the variance of complex computer models is an essential practice to assess and improve that model by identifying the influential parameters that cause the output variance. Variance-based sensitivity analysis is the process of decomposing the output variance into components associated with each input parameter. In this study, we applied a new concept of variance-based sensitivity analysis inspired by the game theory proposed by Shapley. The technique is called the Shapley effect, and it investigates the contribution of each input parameter as well as its interactions with every other parameter in the system by exploring all possible permutations between them. The Shapley effect is compared to the common Sobol indices technique (first order and total effects) to investigate their performance under correlated and uncorrelated parameters. The Shapley effect demonstrated superior performance when compared to the Sobol indices for correlated input parameters. Shapley effect captured the correlation between the input parameters, expressing the variance contribution in a single index instead of two indices, and normalization of the fractional indices is preserved without over or underestimation. On the other hand, the two algorithms we selected to calculate Sobol indices under correlated inputs experienced different issues including: over/underestimating the output variance, first order effect could be larger than the total effect, possibility of negative indices, unnormalized fractional indices, and difficulty to interpret the results. However, Sobol showed satisfactory performance when the inputs are uncorrelated as the numerical values and input ranking were in good agreement with Shapley effect. The main disadvantage of Shapley effect is its large computational cost especially for high dimensional problems where the number of possible input subsets becomes very large. The results of our tests showed that the thermal fission cross-section carried most of the uncertainty at BOL, and its contribution declines after fuel burnup, which is replaced by the uncertainty contribution of the fast cross-section parameters.

Information and communications technology (ICT) has developed economies and the way of energy consuming through the access, analysis, planning, and management of information. Such innovation, hence, explains the important direct effects on the environment and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in a region or causes the spillover effects on other regions. This research examines the relationship between ICT and CO2 emissions to have both within-region effects and spillover effects on other regions. In this way, ICT and the square of ICT were combined into the environmental Kuznets curve to specify the direct, spatial spillover, and total effects of ICT on CO2 emissions. The dynamic spatial Durbin model was used to estimate the effects of ICT on the provinces of Iran for a period of 2001 to 2015. The results showed that the spatial spillover effects of ICT on CO2 emissions have an inverted U-shaped relationship in short and long run. This findings show that an increase in the ICT in a province first causes to increase and then decrease the CO2 emissions in other provinces.

Researchers often make use of linear regression models in order to assess the impact of policies on target outcomes. In a correctly specified linear regression model, the marginal impact is simply measured by the linear regression coefficient. However, when dealing with both synchronic and diachronic spatial data, the interpretation of the parameters is more complex because the effects of policies extend to the neighboring locations. Summary measures have been suggested in the literature for the cross-sectional spatial linear regression models and spatial panel data models. In this article, we compare three procedures for testing the significance of impact measures in the spatial linear regression models. These procedures include (i) the estimating equation approach, (ii) the classical delta method, and (iii) the simulation method. In a Monte Carlo study, we compare the finite sample properties of these procedures.

This study aims to explain a commonly overlooked risk phenomenon where a community living around a hazardous facility adapts itself to the dangers posed by the facility. A survey of 434 residents was administered in the community around the Botian chemical plant in Tianjin, China. Hierarchical regression analyses indicate that place attachment negatively predicts intention to move away and positively predicts intention to protest. Moreover, it negatively moderates the relationship between risk perception and intention to move away. Employment relationship negatively affects intention to move and protest, and it negatively (positively) moderates the relationship between risk perception and intention to move (intention to protest). The total effects of place attachment and employment relationship weaken the positive effect of risk perception on protective responses.

Typically, the explanatory variables included in a regression model, in conjunction with the omitted relevant regressors implied by the usual error term, have both direct and indirect effects on the dependent variable. Attempts to obtain their separate estimates have been plagued with simultaneity issues. To circumvent these problems, this paper defines their sum as “total effects”, develops a time-varying coefficients methodology for their estimation without simultaneity bias, and applies these techniques to estimate the total effects of commercial bank credit per-capita on real GDP per-capita in Mauritius. An innovation is the introduction of extraneous variables that act as “coefficient drivers” chosen on the basis of best predictive performance, as measured by the smallest value of Theil’s U-statistic we were able to locate in the estimation.

Purpose This study explored the overall impact of psychopathic traits on crime by examining both the direct effects of psychopathic traits on criminal behavior, as well as the indirect effects of psychopathic traits through risk factors. Methods Relying on a juvenile offender sample (N = 1354), a multiple mediator model was employed to examine (1) the direct effects of psychopathic traits on offending, (2) the direct effects of risk factors on offending, (3) the indirect effects of risk factors on the link between two factors, and (4) the total effects of psychopathic traits on offending via various risk factors. Results Overall, psychopathic traits had significant effects on the different types of criminal behavior and risk factors. Some risk factors also exerted significant indirect impacts, depending on the type of criminal behavior. Deviant peer association remained as a significant risk factor in all models. Conclusions These results show that psychopathic traits themselves linked to increased offending and that the effects of psychopathic traits on offending are precipitated through risk factors. Findings shed light on those risk factors that are most likely to trigger deviant behavior and suggest that eliminating proximal risks around them may enhance public safety

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have different effects depending on the companies that rely on them. On manufacturing systems, the effective use of ICTs requires a compatible design with the human, technology, and environment. This article analyses the effect of macroergonomic compatibility of ICTs as independent variable on dependent variables of production processes, clients, and organisational performance of manufacturing systems in the Mexican state of Chihuahua. In addition, this paper examines the relationships between these dependent variables. Methodology includes the construction of a questionnaire, administered to middle and senior managers of manufacturing companies to collect information on the macroergonomic practices of ICTs. Also, a factor analysis is carried out to data gathered, and hypotheses are proposed to suggest the effects of ICTs on dependent variables. Afterwards, a structural equations model is constructed and evaluated to test such hypotheses. Results obtained indicate that ICTs are an ideal element to measure macroergonomic compatibility of manufacturing systems, and that this compatibility has positive direct effects on production processes and clients, while significant indirect and total effects on the organisational performance of manufacturing systems. Results also showed that dependent variables clients and production processes had a significant impact on the performance of manufacturing systems.

Using self-reported data from over 12,000 students, staff, and faculty members, this study aims to quantify the effectiveness of various sustainability information sources on the awareness and behavioral changes of participants. Exploratory factor analysis of 12 communication sources resulted in three clusters: news sources, blogs and social media sources, and local sources of information. All three clusters had positive impacts on the sustainability awareness of students, staff, and faculty members. Of the three clusters, local sources were the least effective strategy for enhancing sustainability awareness in all groups. Overall, for undergraduate students, blogs and social media sources were most effective, and for graduate or professional students and staff, news sources were most effective. While sustainability awareness increased from 2012 to 2014, the total effects on actions were small for all groups. The lack of impact on behavioral changes can be explained by the high initial level of action taken by participants, regardless of their low level of awareness about campus-specific sustainability initiatives. Recommendations for further behavioral changes include combining multiple communication sources and channels, providing engagement opportunities, increasing access to information, and using participatory methods to encourage further peer-to-peer support networks.

The present study used a cross-sectional survey design to explore the role of ego-depletion in the relationship between self-control and health-promoting behaviors in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD). This study recruited 277 patients with CHD to measure the levels of ego-depletion, self-control and health-promotion (HP) behavior using Self-Regulatory Fatigue Scale (SRF-s), Dual-Mode of Self-Control Scale (DMSD-s) and Health Promotion Lifestyle Profile-II (HPLP-II) to examine the relationship between the three. Study found that self-control improved the patients' HP behaviors to some extent. Self-control in patients with CHD uses ego-depletion as the mediating variable to indirectly and positively predict the level of HP behavior, and the mediating effects account for 47.76% (impulsive system) and 15.6% (control system) of the total effects, respectively.

The main purpose of this study was to test the fit of model of the relationships among students’ satisfaction with the library, familial reading environments and whose reading attitudes. Further, it tried to find out whether the familial reading environments and satisfaction with the library affect the students’ reading attitudes, and then explored the direct, indirect and total effects between the students’ satisfaction with the library, familial reading environments, and reading attitudes. The participants of this study included 714 high school students (356 male, 358 female), and the findings suggested that (1) the theoretical model of students’ satisfactions with the library, familial reading environments, and reading attitudes using Structural Equation Modeling was supported; (2) students’ satisfactions with the library were in connection with their familial reading environments; (3) students’ satisfactions of library and familial reading environments had a significantly positive effect on students’ reading attitudes.

This paper (i) derives a number of properties of a newly specified multi-input-single-output (MISO) production function with a derived error term, and (ii) using iteratively rescaled generalized least squares, presents estimates of the cross-sectionally varying coefficients of a multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) production function with a derived error term based on newly derived conditions for estimating the total effects of its regressors on its dependent variable, when an unknown number of unobserved inputs is potentially involved in production. The results indicate that for the years 2008, 2009, and 2010, the coefficient estimates do not contain simultaneous-equations biases, bank heterogeneity is not pronounced, and non-transaction accounts turn out to be the dominant input.

A prática desportiva por atletas veteranos é uma realidade evidente e com perspetivas de expansão. Objetivou-se determinar variáveis preditivas de bem-estar subjetivo em atletas veteranos, atendendo à teoria da autodeterminação. Elaborou-se um modelo de equação estrutural e um modelo de mediação. Participaram 840 atletas veteranos portugueses, entre os 30 e os 76 anos (M=42.54 DT=7.28). Utilizou-se o Basic Psychological Needs Exercise Scale (Moutão, Cid, Alves, Leitão e Vlachopoulos, 2012), o Behavioral Regulation in Sport Questionnaire (Monteiro, Moutão e Cid, 2018), a Escala de Afetos Positivos e Negativos (Galinha e Pais-Ribeiro, 2005) e a Escala de Satisfação com a Vida (Neto, 1993). O modelo mostrou os seguintes índices de ajuste: χ2 = 674.554, p < 0.001, χ2/fd = 4.08, CFI = 0.94; IFI = 0.94; TLI = 0.92; GFI = 0.92; RMSEA = 0.062; SRMR = 0.061. Nos aletas veteranos, a perceção de satisfação da necessidade psicológica básica de autonomia leva a comportamentos motivados autonomamente, promovendo estes, níveis mais elevados de bem-estar subjetivo. A motivação autónoma revelou-se uma variável mediadora significativa entre a necessidade psicológica básica de autonomia e a produção de afetos positivos. Registaram-se ainda efeitos indiretos da variável mediadorasobre as variáveis de satisfação com a vida e afetos negativos, assim como, efeitos diretos e totais da variável independente e as variáveis de consequência em análise. La práctica deportiva por deportistas veteranos es una realidad evidente y con perspectivas de expansión. El objetivo fue determinar variables predictivas de bienestar subjetivo en deportistas veteranos, teniendo en cuenta la teoría de la autodeterminación. Se elaboró un modelo de ecuación estructural y un modelo de mediación. Participaron 840 deportistas veteranos portugueses, de entre 30 y 76 años (M = 42.54 DT = 7.28). Se utilizó la Escala de Necesidades Psicológicas Básicas en el Ejercicio (Moutão, Cid, Alves, Leitão y Vlachopoulos, 2012), el Cuestionario de Regulación Conductual en el Deporte (Monteiro, Moutão y Cid, 2018), la Escala de Afectos Positivos y Negativos (Galinha y Pais -Ribeiro, 2005) y la Escala de Satisfacción con la Vida (Neto, 1993). El modelo mostró los siguientes índices de ajuste: χ2 = 674,554, p

This chapter deals with the fundamental understanding of complexity, as based on the new paradigm of complexifying and complexification as a generative bottom-up paradigm. The focus is on understanding the generative nature of complexity as generative complexity, involving generative processes of complexifying and complexification in the dynamics of interaction between entities. This generative kind of dynamics can be modelled as causal, generative dynamics of between two entities in interaction. The loop between two entities may be taken as a causal, generative loop with potential nonlinear causal effects. These effects may show the fundamental multiplicative, generative nature of causal interaction, as being part of a new generative foundation of science. The calculus of causal effects may be shown to be a generative calculus of causal effects on the entities involved. The new calculus may be taken to be a missing calculus of total effects in interaction, with unexpected causal effects like the nonlinear multiplier effect. The effects generated in interaction show the very generative power of causal interaction in shaping the entities in interaction by (causal) force. All of this shows generative causality to be a key for opening science in the twenty-first century, also known as the Century of Complexity.

In this study we evaluate a national economic model using a system dynamics approach. We use a set of macroeconomic data for a transition economy to validate the model behavior in the past, and then simulate the future paths of key macroeconomic variables. Instead of studying only a fraction of the economy, or using simple and abstract models, we build a large-scale national economic model. As the study is based on system dynamics information feedback, it provides additional insights about the macroeconomic effects of the economic policy, making it a valuable tool for economic policy analysis. Such insights are instrumental for understanding the total effects of economic policies and their full economic consequences. To demonstrate this, we have simulated one interesting economic policy intervention.

The business restrictions introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic greatly affected the labour market. However, quantifying their costs is not trivial as local policies affect neighbouring areas through spillovers. Exploiting the U.S. local variation in restrictions and commuting, we estimate the causal direct and spillover impacts of lockdowns. Spillovers alone account for 10-15% of U.S. job losses. We corroborate these results with causal evidence for a consumption-based mechanism: shops whose consumers reside in neighbouring areas under lockdown experience larger employment losses, even if no local restriction is in place. Accounting for spillovers implies larger lockdowns' total effects, but smaller direct ones.

In this chapter, we consider both vertical and horizontal effects on derived demand for raw materials, and total effects of exogenous variables on retail and farm prices. In the last chapter we showed how retail-to-farm price linkages could be formulated and estimated consistently. In this chapter, these relationships are combined with the retail demand elasticities for meats from Chapter 5 to derive total impacts of retail demand, farm supply, and marketing costs on derived demand and retail and farm prices. We derive the properties of these generalized derived demands as well as formulas for the total elasticities. This chapter also evaluates this approach to retail-to-farm price linkages in light of role imperfect competition may play on the price relationships. Finally, causes of short-run price determination from lags between retail and farm prices are evaluated, and an empirical application to beef price spreads is presented.