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Objectives: To determine the associated pathogen during the 2023 conjunctivitis outbreak in Vietnam Methods: RNA-sequencing was used to identify pathogens before and during the outbreak. Results: 24 patients with infectious conjunctivitis between March and October 2023 from Hai Yen Vision Institute in Vietnam were swabbed. Coxsackievirus A24v was the most common pathogen identified. Phylogenetic analysis of these strains demonstrates similarities to the Coxsackievirus identified in the 2022 India outbreak. Human adenovirus D was also circulating. Ocular findings of tearing, purulence, and itching were common in this outbreak. Conclusions: Multiple viruses can co-circulate during conjunctivitis outbreaks. Hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, commonly associated with coxsackievirus conjunctivitis, was not a common clinical sign in this outbreak. Repeat genetic surveillance, with the notable inclusion of RNA virus detection strategies, is important for outbreak detection.

Abstract Trachoma, caused by ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. To provide evidence for use of antibodies to monitor C. trachomatis transmission, we collated IgG responses to Pgp3 antigen, PCR positivity, and clinical observations from 19,811 children aged 1–9 years in 14 populations. We demonstrate that age-seroprevalence curves consistently shift along a gradient of transmission intensity: rising steeply in populations with high levels of infection and active trachoma and becoming flat in populations near elimination. Seroprevalence (range: 0–54%) and seroconversion rates (range: 0–15 per 100 person-years) correlate with PCR prevalence (r: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.97). A seroprevalence threshold of 13.5% (seroconversion rate 2.75 per 100 person-years) identifies clusters with any PCR-identified infection at high sensitivity ( >90%) and moderate specificity (69–75%). Antibody responses in young children provide a robust, generalizable approach to monitor population progress toward and beyond trachoma elimination.

Abstract Background Ocular rosacea is common and is often managed with long-term antibiotic treatment. Doxycycline is the most commonly selected antibiotic for the treatment of rosacea. As there is no established standard of care treatment dose for rosacea, prescribed doses of doxycycline vary widely. The FDA classifies 40 mg daily dose of doxycycline for ocular rosacea as sub-microbial in comparison to an antibiotic dose of 200 mg daily. However, this “sub-microbial” dose has never been evaluated in patients with ocular rosacea, and even the sub-microbial dose has potential to alter systemic mucosa flora. Here, we present a randomized controlled trial using RNA sequencing to fully characterize the impact of sub-microbial antibiotic dosing of doxycycline on antimicrobial resistance and bacterial composition of the ocular and gut flora. Methods In a triple-masked parallel randomized control trial, patients with ocular rosacea will be randomized to three arms: a 40-mg dose of doxycycline, a 200-mg antibiotic dose of doxycycline, or placebo. Collected rectal and lower eyelid samples will be compared for frequency of antimicrobial resistance genetic determinants and microbiome diversity. A subjective ocular surface disease index survey and objective tear breakup time measurement will be determined. Discussion These results will enhance our understanding of the overall systemic impact of long-term systemic sub-microbial antibiotic dosing for the treatment of chronic recurrent ocular inflammatory diseases. Trial registration This trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.org (NCT05296837) on March 22, 2022.

Objective The objective of this study was to examine the association of smoking with Primary Sjögren syndrome (pSS) classification and pSS diagnostic test results. We hypothesized that past and current smokers would have lower odds of being classified as having Sjögren syndrome (SS) and lower odds of having abnormal individual SS diagnostic test results compared with nonsmokers. Methods Participants with suspected or established pSS were enrolled into the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) registry and had oral, ocular, and rheumatologic examinations performed; blood and saliva samples collected; and labial salivary gland biopsy examinations performed; they also completed questionnaires at baseline. Logistic regression was used to determine whether smoking status was associated with pSS classification and individual pSS diagnostic test results. Results A total of 3514 participants were enrolled in SICCA. A total of 1541 (52.9%) met classification criteria for pSS. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had reduced odds of being classified as having pSS, reduced odds of having a focus score ≥ 1 and serologic positivity for anti‐SSA/anti‐SSB antibodies, and lower odds of having abnormal signs or test results of dry eye disease. Compared with never smokers, past smokers did not have a statistically significant reduction in odds of being classified as having pSS and of having abnormal individual pSS diagnostic test results. Conclusion Compared with never smokers, current smokers in the SICCA cohort had lower odds of being classified as having pSS, lower odds of exhibiting abnormal signs and test results for dry eye disease, and lower odds of having a labial salivary gland biopsy supportive of pSS classification. Such negative associations, however, do not suggest that current smoking is of any benefit with respect to pSS.

Abstract Background Azithromycin is a broad-spectrum antibiotic that has moderate antimalarial activity and has been shown to reduce all-cause mortality when biannually administered to children under five in high mortality settings in sub-Saharan Africa. One potential mechanism for this observed reduction in mortality is via a reduction in malaria transmission. Methods We evaluated whether a single oral dose of azithromycin reduces malaria positivity by rapid diagnostic test (RDT). We conducted an individually randomized placebo-controlled trial in Burkina Faso during the high malaria transmission season in August 2020. Children aged 8 days to 59 months old were randomized to a single oral dose of azithromycin (20 mg/kg) or matching placebo. At baseline and 14 days following treatment, we administered a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) to detect Plasmodium falciparum and measured tympanic temperature for all children. Caregiver-reported adverse events and clinic visits were recorded at the day 14 visit. Results We enrolled 449 children with 221 randomized to azithromycin and 228 to placebo. The median age was 32 months and 48% were female. A total of 8% of children had a positive RDT for malaria at baseline and 11% had a fever (tympanic temperature ≥ 37.5 °C). In the azithromycin arm, 8% of children had a positive RDT for malaria at 14 days compared to 7% in the placebo arm (P = 0.65). Fifteen percent of children in the azithromycin arm had a fever ≥ 37.5 °C compared to 21% in the placebo arm (P = 0.12). Caregivers of children in the azithromycin group had lower odds of reporting fever as an adverse event compared to children in the placebo group (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.18–0.96, P = 0.04). Caregiver-reported clinic visits were uncommon, and there were no observed differences between arms (P = 0.32). Conclusions We did not find evidence that a single oral dose of azithromycin reduced malaria positivity during the high transmission season. Caregiver-reported fever occurred less often in children receiving azithromycin compared to placebo, indicating that azithromycin may have some effect on non-malarial infections. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04315272, registered 19/03/2020

In a randomized placebo-controlled trial in rural Niger, biannual azithromycin distribution to children 1-59 months reduced all-cause mortality. Based on serology, Arzika et al. here report a reduction of Campylobacter infection, supporting one mechanism for the intervention’s impact on mortality.

Abstract Background Low birthweight is a major contributor to infant mortality. We evaluated the association between antenatal care (ANC) attendance and low birthweight among newborns in 5 regions of Burkina Faso. Methods We utilized data from the baseline assessment of a randomized controlled trial evaluating azithromycin distribution during the neonatal period for prevention of infant mortality. Neonates were eligible for the trial if the weighed at least 2500 g at enrollment and were 8–27 days of age. Data on ANC attendance and birthweight was extracted from each child’s carnet de santé, a government-issued health card on which pregnancy and birth-related data are recorded. We used linear and logistic regression models adjusting for potentially confounding variables to evaluate the relationship between ANC attendance (as total number of visits and ≥ 4 antenatal care visits) and birthweight (continuously and categorized into

Abstract Background Azithromycin has recently been shown to reduce all-cause childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. One potential mechanism of this effect is via the anti-malarial effect of azithromycin, which may help treat or prevent malaria infection. This study evaluated short- and longer-term effects of azithromycin on malaria outcomes in children. Methods Children aged 8 days to 59 months were randomized in a 1:1 fashion to a single oral dose of azithromycin (20 mg/kg) or matching placebo. Children were evaluated for malaria via thin and thick smear and rapid diagnostic test (for those with tympanic temperature ≥ 37.5 °C) at baseline and 14 days and 6 months after treatment. Malaria outcomes in children receiving azithromycin versus placebo were compared at each follow-up timepoint separately. Results Of 450 children enrolled, 230 were randomized to azithromycin and 220 to placebo. Children were a median of 26 months and 51% were female, and 17% were positive for malaria parasitaemia at baseline. There was no evidence of a difference in malaria parasitaemia at 14 days or 6 months after treatment. In the azithromycin arm, 20% of children were positive for parasitaemia at 14 days compared to 17% in the placebo arm (P = 0.43) and 7.6% vs. 5.6% in the azithromycin compared to placebo arms at 6 months (P = 0.47). Conclusions Azithromycin did not affect malaria outcomes in this study, possibly due to the individually randomized nature of the trial. Trial registration This study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03676751; registered 19 September 2018).

Abstract Background Biannual distribution of azithromycin to children 1–59 months old reduced mortality by 14% in a cluster-randomized trial. The World Health Organization has proposed targeting this intervention to the subgroup of children 1–11 months old to reduce selection for antimicrobial resistance. Here, we describe a trial designed to determine the impact of age-based targeting of biannual azithromycin on mortality and antimicrobial resistance. Methods AVENIR is a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled, double-masked, response-adaptive large simple trial in Niger. During the 2.5-year study period, 3350 communities are targeted for enrollment. In the first year, communities in the Dosso region will be randomized 1:1:1 to 1) azithromycin 1–11: biannual azithromycin to children 1–11 months old with placebo to children 12–59 months old, 2) azithromycin 1–59: biannual azithromycin to children 1–59 months old, or 3) placebo: biannual placebo to children 1–59 months old. Regions enrolled after the first year will be randomized with an updated allocation based on the probability of mortality in children 1–59 months in each arm during the preceding study period. A biannual door-to-door census will be conducted to enumerate the population, distribute azithromycin and placebo, and monitor vital status. Primary mortality outcomes are defined as all-cause mortality rate (deaths per 1000 person-years) after 2.5 years from the first enrollment in 1) children 1–59 months old comparing the azithromycin 1–59 and placebo arms, 2) children 1–11 months old comparing the azithromycin 1–11 and placebo arm, and 3) children 12–59 months in the azithromycin 1–11 and azithromycin 1–59 arms. In the Dosso region, 50 communities from each arm will be followed to monitor antimicrobial resistance. Primary resistance outcomes will be assessed after 2 years of distributions and include 1) prevalence of genetic determinants of macrolide resistance in nasopharyngeal samples from children 1–59 months old, and 2) load of genetic determinants of macrolide resistance in rectal samples from children 1–59 months old. Discussion As high-mortality settings consider this intervention, the results of this trial will provide evidence to support programmatic and policy decision-making on age-based strategies for azithromycin distribution to promote child survival. Trial registration This trial was registered on January 13, 2020 (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT04224987 ).

Purpose: Develop computer vision models for image-based differentiation of bacterial and fungal corneal ulcers and compare their performance against human experts. Design: Cross-sectional comparison of diagnostic performance. Participants: Patients with acute, culture-proven bacterial or fungal keratitis from 4 centers in South India. Methods: Five convolutional neural networks (CNNs) were trained using images from handheld cameras collected from patients with culture-proven corneal ulcers in South India recruited as part of clinical trials conducted between 2006 and 2015. Their performance was evaluated on 2 hold-out test sets (1 single center and 1 multicenter) from South India. Twelve local expert cornea specialists performed remote interpretation of the images in the multicenter test set to enable direct comparison against CNN performance. Main Outcome Measures: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) individually and for each group collectively (i.e., CNN ensemble and human ensemble). Results: The best-performing CNN architecture was MobileNet, which attained an AUC of 0.86 on the single-center test set (other CNNs range, 0.68–0.84) and 0.83 on the multicenter test set (other CNNs range, 0.75–0.83). Expert human AUCs on the multicenter test set ranged from 0.42 to 0.79. The CNN ensemble achieved a statistically significantly higher AUC (0.84) than the human ensemble (0.76; P < 0.01). CNNs showed relatively higher accuracy for fungal (81%) versus bacterial (75%) ulcers, whereas humans showed relatively higher accuracy for bacterial (88%) versus fungal (56%) ulcers. An ensemble of the best-performing CNN and best-performing human achieved the highest AUC of 0.87, although this was not statistically significantly higher than the best CNN (0.83; P = 0.17) or best human (0.79; P = 0.09). Conclusions: Computer vision models achieved superhuman performance in identifying the underlying infectious cause of corneal ulcers compared with cornea specialists. The best-performing model, MobileNet, attained an AUC of 0.83 to 0.86 without any additional clinical or historical information. These findings suggest the potential for future implementation of these models to enable earlier directed antimicrobial therapy in the management of infectious keratitis, which may improve visual outcomes. Additional studies are ongoing to incorporate clinical history and expert opinion into predictive models.

Abstract Background Delays in care-seeking for childhood illness may lead to more severe outcomes. We evaluated whether community distance from a primary healthcare facility was associated with decreased healthcare utilization in a rural district of northwestern Burkina Faso. Methods We conducted passive surveillance of all government-run primary healthcare facilities in Nouna District, Burkina Faso from March 1 through May 31, 2020. All healthcare visits for children under 5 years of age were recorded on a standardized form for sick children. We recorded the age, sex, and community of residence of the child as well as any diagnoses and treatments administered. We calculated healthcare utilization per 100 child-months by linking the aggregate number of visits at the community level to the community’s population of children under 5 months per a census that was conducted from August 2019 through February 2020. We calculated the distance between each community and its corresponding healthcare facility and assessed the relationship between distance and the rate of healthcare utilization. Results In 226 study communities, 12,676 primary healthcare visits were recorded over the three-month period. The median distance between the community and primary healthcare facility was 5.0 km (IQR 2.6 to 6.9 km), and median number of healthcare visits per 100 child-months at the community level was 6.7 (IQR 3.7 to 12.3). The rate of primary healthcare visits declined with increasing distance from clinic (Spearman’s rho − 0.42, 95% CI − 0.54 to − 0.31, P

Abstract Background In lower resource settings, previous randomized controlled trials have demonstrated evidence of increased weight gain following antibiotic administration in children with acute illness. We conducted an individually randomized trial to assess whether single dose azithromycin treatment causes weight gain in a general population sample of children in Burkina Faso. Methods Children aged 8 days to 59 months were enrolled in November 2019 and followed through June 2020 in Nouna Town, Burkina Faso. Participants were randomly assigned to a single oral dose of azithromycin (20 mg/kg) or matching placebo. Anthropometric measurements were collected at baseline and 14 days and 6 months after enrollment. The primary anthropometric outcome was weight gain velocity in g/kg/day from baseline to 14 days and 6 months in separate linear regression models. Results Of 450 enrolled children, 230 were randomly assigned to azithromycin and 220 to placebo. Median age was 26 months (IQR 16 to 38 months) and 51% were female. At 14 days, children in the azithromycin arm gained a mean difference of 0.9 g/kg/day (95% CI 0.2 to 1.6 g/kg/day, P = 0.01) more than children in the placebo arm. There was no difference in weight gain velocity in children receiving azithromycin compared to placebo at 6 months (mean difference 0.04 g/kg/day, 95% CI − 0.05 to 0.13 g/kg/day, P = 0.46). There were no significant differences in other anthropometric outcomes. Conclusions Transient increases in weight gain were observed after oral azithromycin treatment, which may provide short-term benefits. Clinical trials registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03676751 . Registered 19/09/2018.

Abstract Background The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends annual mass azithromycin distribution until districts drop below 5% prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF). Districts with very low TF prevalence may have little or no transmission of the ocular strains of Chlamydia trachomatis that cause trachoma, and additional rounds of mass azithromycin distribution may not be useful. Here, we describe the protocol for a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate whether mass azithromycin distribution can be stopped prior to the current WHO guidelines. Methods The Azithromycin Reduction to Reach Elimination of Trachoma (ARRET) study is a 1:1 community randomized non-inferiority trial designed to evaluate whether mass azithromycin distribution can be stopped in districts with baseline prevalence of TF under 20%. Communities in Maradi, Niger are randomized after baseline assessment either to continued annual mass azithromycin distribution or stopping annual azithromycin distribution over a 3-year period. We will compare the prevalence of ocular C. trachomatis (primary outcome), TF and other clinical signs of trachoma, and serologic markers of trachoma after 3 years. We hypothesize that stopping annual azithromycin distribution will be non-inferior to continued annual azithromycin distributions for all markers of trachoma prevalence and transmission. Discussion The results of this trial are anticipated to provide potentially guideline-changing evidence for when mass azithromycin distributions can be stopped in low TF prevalence areas. Trial registration number This study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT04185402 ). Registered December 4, 2019; prospectively registered pre-results.

Background Acanthamoeba keratitis is challenging to treat and thought to result in poor outcomes, but very few comparative studies exist to assess whether ulcers caused by Acanthamoeba are worse than those caused by bacteria or fungus. Methods In a retrospective cohort study, all cases of smear- or culture-proven Acanthamoeba keratitis diagnosed from January 2006 to June 2011 at an eye hospital in South India were identified from the microbiology database. Random samples of the same number of cases of bacterial and fungal keratitis, matched by year, were identified from the same database in order to compare outcomes between the three types of organism. The main outcomes were the time until the following events: re-epithelialization, discontinuation of antimicrobials, perforation/keratoplasty, elevated intraocular pressure, and new cataract. Results The median time until re-epithelialization was 113 days for Acanthamoeba keratitis, 30 days for fungal keratitis, and 25 days for bacterial keratitis, and the median time until discontinuation of antimicrobial therapy was 100 days for Acanthamoeba keratitis, 49 days for fungal keratitis, and 40 days for bacterial keratitis. Compared to the other two organisms, Acanthamoeba ulcers took significantly longer to re-epithelialize (adjusted HR 0.4, 95% CI 0.3 to 0.6 relative to bacterial ulcers and HR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2 to 0.5 relative to fungal ulcers; overall pConclusions Acanthamoeba keratitis was more difficult to treat and had worse clinical outcomes than bacterial or fungal ulcers, highlighting the lack of adequate treatment regimens for this infection.

Abstract Background Biannual, mass azithromycin distribution has previously been shown to reduce all-cause child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Subgroup analysis suggested that the strongest effects were in the youngest children, leading to the hypothesis that targeting younger age groups might be an effective strategy to prevent mortality. We present the methods of two randomized controlled trials designed to evaluate mass and targeted azithromycin distribution for the prevention of child mortality in Burkina Faso, West Africa. Methods/design The Child Health with Azithromycin Treatment (CHAT) study consists of two nested, randomized controlled trials. In the first, communities are randomized in a 1:1 fashion to biannual, mass azithromycin distribution or placebo. The primary outcome is under-5 all-cause mortality measured at the community level. In the second, children attending primary healthcare facilities during the first 5–12 weeks of life for a healthy child visit (e.g., for vaccination) are randomized in a 1:1 fashion to a single orally administered dose of azithromycin or placebo. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality measured at 6 months of age. The trial commenced enrollment in August 2019. Discussion This study is expected to provide evidence on two health systems delivery approaches (mass and targeted treatment) for azithromycin to prevent all-cause child mortality. The results will inform global and national policies related to azithromycin for the prevention of child mortality. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT03676764. Registered on 19 September 2018; prospectively registered pre results.

Abstract Background Biannual mass azithromycin administration to preschool children reduces all-cause mortality, but the mechanism for the effect is not understood. Azithromycin has activity against malaria parasites, and malaria is a leading cause of child mortality in the Sahel. The effect of biannual versus annual azithromycin distribution for trachoma control on serological response to merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP-119), a surrogate for malaria incidence, was evaluated among children in Niger. Methods Markers of malaria exposure were measured in two arms of a factorial randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate targeted biannual azithromycin distribution to children under 12 years of age compared to annual azithromycin to the entire community for trachoma control (N = 12 communities per arm). Communities were treated for 36 months (6 versus 3 distributions). Dried blood spots were collected at 36 months among children ages 1–5 years, and MSP-119 antibody levels were assessed using a bead-based multiplex assay to measure malaria seroprevalence. Results Antibody results were available for 991 children. MSP-119 seropositivity was 62.7% in the biannual distribution arm compared to 68.7% in the annual arm (prevalence ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.00). Mean semi-quantitative antibody levels were lower in the biannual distribution arm compared to the annual arm (mean difference − 0.39, 95% CI − 0.05 to − 0.72). Conclusions Targeted biannual azithromycin distribution was associated with lower malaria seroprevalence compared to that in a population that received annual distribution. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00792922

Purpose: Acanthamoeba keratitis often is refractory to medical and surgical therapy, primarily because of the remarkable resilience of Acanthamoeba cysts. In this study, we directly compared the cysticidal activity and potency of several candidate medical therapies in vitro. Design: Experimental study. Participants: In vitro Acanthamoeba specimens obtained from 9 patients with keratitis seen at the Francis I. Proctor Foundation from 2008 through 2012. Methods: The minimum cysticidal concentration (MCC) of povidone iodine, natamycin, and chlorhexidine was investigated using an established assay technique. The relative potency of each agent was estimated starting with concentrations commonly used in clinical practice and determining the number of two-fold dilutions required to reach the MCC. Statistical comparisons of relative potency were performed using bootstrap simulations and permutation tests. Main Outcome Measures: Minimum cysticidal concentration and the number of two-fold dilutions required to reach the MCC. Results: The MCC for chlorhexidine ranged from 3.1 to 25 μg/ml (median, 12.5 μg/ml; interquartile range [IQR], 6.25–12.5 μg/ml), the MCC for natamycin ranged from 390.6 to 3125 μg/ml (median, 390.6 μg/ml; IQR, 390.6–781.2 μg/ml), and the MCC for povidone iodine ranged from 0.3 to 78.1 μg/ml (median, 2.4 μg/ml; IQR, 0.6–9.8 μg/ml). Doses commonly used in clinical practice (povidone iodine 1%, natamycin 5%, and chlorhexidine 0.04%) were approximately 12, 7, and 5 two-fold dilutions higher than the drug’s corresponding median MCC, respectively (P < 0.001, comparing 3 drugs). Povidone iodine 1% had the highest potency of the 3 medications tested, requiring more dilutions than natamycin 5% (P < 0.001) and chlorhexidine 0.04% (P < 0.001) to reach the MCC. Conclusions: All 3 medications demonstrated in vitro cysticidal activity in each of the 9 isolates. The potency of 1% povidone iodine was greater than standard formulations of natamycin or chlorhexidine. Although its clinical efficacy is yet to be determined, povidone iodine may be considered as a potential adjuvant treatment in cases of recalcitrant Acanthamoeba keratitis.

Eukaryotic parasites are significant contributors to childhood illness in Niger. While helminthiases have received national attention through mass deworming efforts, the epidemiology of intestinal protozoa in Niger remains underexamined. This study employed real-time PCR diagnostics to describe the prevalence of two schistosomes, four soil-transmitted helminths, and one protozoan parasite in Boboye Department, Dosso Region. Prevalence was assessed using bulk stool specimens collected from a population-based sample of 86 children residing in 9 communities. Anthropometric measurements were used to calculate child growth z-scores and stool consistency was graded. Helminths were absent from the study population, with the exception of a single Schistosoma haematobium infection (1/86; 1.2%). Giardia duodenalis was the only protozoa present, detected in 65% (56/86) of children. Prevalence of G. duodenalis peaked in 2-year-olds with 88% (15/17) positivity. The population was generally undernourished, though growth indices did not differ significantly between children with and without G. duodenalis infection.

Mathematical models predict that the community-level incidence of a controlled infectious disease across a region approaches a geometric distribution. This could hold over larger regions, if new cases remain proportional to existing cases. Leprosy has been disappearing for centuries, making an excellent candidate for testing this hypothesis. Here, we show the annual new case detection rate of leprosy in Indian districts to be consistent with a geometric distribution. For 2008–2013, goodness-of-fit testing was unable to exclude the geometric, and the shape parameter of the best fit negative binomial distribution was close to unity (0.95, 95% CI 0.87–1.03). Ramifications include that a district-level cross-sectional survey may reveal whether an infectious disease is headed towards elimination, that apparent outliers are expected and not necessarily representative of program failure, and that proportion 1/e of a small geographical unit may not meet a control threshold even when a larger area has. Keywords: Leprosy, Geometric distribution, Elimination, Mathematical model

Abstract Background As leprosy elimination becomes an increasingly realistic goal, it is essential to determine the factors that contribute to its persistence. We evaluate social and economic factors as predictors of leprosy annual new case detection rates within India, where the majority of leprosy cases occur. Methods We used correlation and linear mixed effect regressions to assess whether poverty, illiteracy, nighttime satellite radiance (an index of development), and other covariates can explain district-wise annual new case detection rate and Grade 2 disability diagnoses. Results We find only weak evidence of an association between poverty and annual new case detection rates at the district level, though illiteracy and satellite radiance are statistically significant predictors of leprosy at the district level. We find no evidence of rapid decline over the period 2008–2015 in either new case detection or new Grade 2 disability. Conclusions Our findings suggest a somewhat higher rate of leprosy detection, on average, in poorer districts; the overall effect is weak. The divide between leprosy case detection and true incidence of clinical leprosy complicates these results, particularly given that the detection rate is likely disproportionately lower in impoverished settings. Additional information is needed to distinguish the determinants of leprosy case detection and transmission during the elimination epoch.

Introduction: As of April 2019, the current Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is occurring in a longstanding conflict zone and has become the second largest EVD outbreak in history. It is suspected that after violent events occur, EVD transmission will increase; however, empirical studies to understand the impact of violence on transmission are lacking. Here, we use spatial and temporal trends of EVD case counts to compare transmission rates between health zones that have versus have not experienced recent violent events during the outbreak. Methods: We collected daily EVD case counts from DRC Ministry of Health. A time-varying indicator of recent violence in each health zone was derived from events documented in the WHO situation reports. We used the Wallinga-Teunis technique to estimate the reproduction number R for each case by day per zone in the 2018–2019 outbreak. We fit an exponentially decaying curve to estimates of R overall and by health zone, for comparison to past outbreaks. Results: As of 16 April 2019, the mean overall R for the entire outbreak was 1.11. We found evidence of an increase in the estimated transmission rates in health zones with recently reported violent events versus those without (p = 0.008). The average R was estimated as between 0.61 and 0.86 in regions not affected by recent violent events, and between 1.01 and 1.07 in zones affected by violent events within the last 21 days, leading to an increase in R between 0.17 and 0.53. Within zones with recent violent events, the mean estimated quenching rate was lower than for all past outbreaks except the 2013–2016 West African outbreak. Conclusion: The difference in the estimated transmission rates between zones affected by recent violent events suggests that violent events are contributing to increased transmission and the ongoing nature of this outbreak. Keywords: Ebola virus disease, Outbreak, Mathematical modeling, Geospatial, Democratic Republic of Congo, Africa

Abstract Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.

Abstract Background Leprosy is caused by infection with Mycobacterium leprae and is characterized by peripheral nerve damage and skin lesions. The disease is classified into paucibacillary (PB) and multibacillary (MB) leprosy. The 2012 London Declaration formulated the following targets for leprosy control: (1) global interruption of transmission or elimination by 2020, and (2) reduction of grade-2 disabilities in newly detected cases to below 1 per million population at a global level by 2020. Leprosy is treatable, but diagnosis, access to treatment and treatment adherence (all necessary to curtail transmission) represent major challenges. Globally, new case detection rates for leprosy have remained fairly stable in the past decade, with India responsible for more than half of cases reported annually. Methods We analyzed publicly available data from the Indian Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, and fit linear mixed-effects regression models to leprosy case detection trends reported at the district level. We assessed correlation of the new district-level case detection rate for leprosy with several state-level regressors: TB incidence, BCG coverage, fraction of cases exhibiting grade 2 disability at diagnosis, fraction of cases in children, and fraction multibacillary. Results Our analyses suggest an endemic disease in very slow decline, with substantial spatial heterogeneity at both district and state levels. Enhanced active case finding was associated with a higher case detection rate. Conclusions Trend analysis of reported new detection rates from India does not support a thesis of rapid progress in leprosy control.

Abstract Background The World Health Organization aims to control blinding trachoma by 2020. Decisions on whether to start and stop mass treatments and when to declare that control has been achieved are currently based on clinical examination data generated in population-based surveys. Thresholds are based on the district-level prevalence of trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF) in children aged 1–9 years. Forecasts of which districts may and may not meet TF control goals by the 2020 target date could affect resource allocation in the next few years. Methods We constructed a hidden Markov model fit to the prevalence of two clinical signs of trachoma and PCR data in 24 communities from the recent PRET-Niger trial. The prevalence of TF in children in each community at 36 months was forecast given data from earlier time points. Forecasts were scored by the likelihood of the observed results. We assessed whether use of TF with additional TI and PCR data rather than just the use of TF alone improves forecasts, and separately whether incorporating a delay in TF recovery is beneficial. Results Including TI and PCR data did not significantly improve forecasts of TF. Forecasts of TF prevalence at 36 months by the model with the delay in TF recovery were significantly better than forecasts by the model without the delay in TF recovery (p = 0.003). A zero-inflated truncated normal observation model was better than a truncated normal observation model, and better than a sensitivity-specificity observation model. Conclusion The results in this study suggest that future studies could consider using just TF data for forecasting, and should include a delay in TF recovery. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00792922

Mathematical models predict that the prevalence of infection in different communities where an infectious disease is disappearing should approach a geometric distribution. Trachoma programs offer an opportunity to test this hypothesis, as the World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted trachoma to be eliminated as a public health concern by the year 2020. We assess the distribution of the community prevalence of childhood ocular chlamydia infection from periodic, cross-sectional surveys in two areas of Ethiopia. These surveys were taken in a controlled setting, where infection was documented to be disappearing over time. For both sets of surveys, the geometric distribution had the most parsimonious fit of the distributions tested, and goodness-of-fit testing was consistent with the prevalence of each community being drawn from a geometric distribution. When infection is disappearing, the single sufficient parameter describing a geometric distribution captures much of the distributional information found from examining every community. The relatively heavy tail of the geometric suggests that the presence of an occasional high-prevalence community is to be expected, and does not necessarily reflect a transmission hot spot or program failure. A single cross-sectional survey can reveal which direction a program is heading. A geometric distribution of the prevalence of infection across communities may be an encouraging sign, consistent with a disease on its way to eradication.

Mass oral azithromycin distributions have dramatically reduced the prevalence of the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma. Assessing efficacy of the antibiotic in an individual is important in planning trachoma elimination. However, the efficacy is difficult to estimate, because post-treatment laboratory testing may be complicated by nonviable organisms or reinfection. Here, we monitored ocular chlamydial infection twice a year in pre-school children in 32 communities as part of a cluster-randomized clinical trial in Tanzania (prevalence in children was lowered from 22.0% to 4.7% after 3-year of annual treatment). We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate the prevalence of infection immediately after treatment, and found the effective field efficacy of antibiotic in an individual to be 67.6% (95% CI: 56.5–75.1%) in this setting. Sensitivity analyses suggested that these results were not dependent on specific assumptions about the duration of infection. We found no evidence of decreased efficacy during the course of the trial. We estimated an 89% chance of elimination after 10 years of annual treatment with 95% coverage.

Trachoma is disappearing in many parts of the world, even in the absence of specific control programs. Following mass antimicrobial drug treatments for trachoma in western Nepal, the prevalence of trachoma declined far more rapidly than could be attributed to the control program alone. Pharmacy surveys in the same region found that children received more antichlamydial drugs from sources outside the trachoma program than they did from the program itself. We demonstrate that high background antimicrobial drug use may be responsible for much of the observed decline in trachoma and discuss its potential role in eliminating this infectious disease.

We investigated antimicrobial drug resistance in ocular Chlamydia trachomatis 18 months after 4 biannual communitywide distributions of antimicrobial drugs in a region of Ethiopia where ocular strains of C. trachomatis are highly endemic. We found no significant differences in susceptibilities to azithromycin and doxycycline in 6 posttreatment and 4 pretreatment samples.

BackgroundThe chlamydial major outer membrane protein, encoded by the ompA gene, is a primary target for chlamydial vaccine research. However, human studies of ompA-specific immunity are limited, and prior studies have been limited in differentiating re-infection from persistent infection. The purpose of this study was to assess whether children living in trachoma-endemic communities with re-infections of ocular chlamydia were more likely to be infected with a different or similar genovar.Methodology and findingsThe study included 21 communities from a trachoma-hyperendemic area of Ethiopia that had been treated with a mass azithromycin distribution for trachoma. Conjunctival swabbing was offered to all children younger than 5 years of age at baseline (i.e., pre-treatment), and then at follow-up visits 2 and 6 months later. Swabs were subjected to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect C. trachomatis. A random sample of 359 PCR-positive swabs, stratified by study visit and study community, was chosen for ompA sequencing. In addition, ompA sequencing was performed on all swabs of 24 children who experienced chlamydial re-infection (i.e., positive chlamydial test before treatment, negative test 2 months following mass distribution of azithromycin, and again a positive test 6 months post-treatment). ompA sequencing was successful for 351 of 359 swabs of the random sample and 44 of 48 swabs of the re-infection sample. In the random sample, ompA types clustered within households more than would be expected by chance. Among the 21 re-infected children with complete ompA data, 14 had the same ompA type before and after treatment.ConclusionThe high frequency of ompA concordance suggests incomplete genovar-specific protective immunity and the need for multiple antigens as vaccine targets.

Trachoma is an infectious disease characterized by repeated exposures to Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) that may ultimately lead to blindness. Efficient identification of communities with high infection burden could help target more intensive control efforts. We hypothesized that IgG seroprevalence in combination with geospatial layers, machine learning, and model-based geostatistics would be able to accurately predict future community-level ocular Ct infections detected by PCR. We used measurements from 40 communities in the hyperendemic Amhara region of Ethiopia to assess this hypothesis. Median Ct infection prevalence among children 0-5 years old increased from 6% at enrollment, in the context of recent mass drug administration (MDA), to 29% by month 36, following three years without MDA. At baseline, correlation between seroprevalence and Ct infection was stronger among children 0-5 years old (ρ = 0.77) than children 6-9 years old (ρ = 0.48), and stronger than the correlation between active trachoma and Ct infection (0-5y ρ = 0.56; 6-9y ρ = 0.40). Seroprevalence was the strongest concurrent predictor of infection prevalence at month 36 among children 0-5 years old (cross-validated R2 = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58-0.85), though predictive performance declined substantially with increasing temporal lag between predictor and outcome measurements. Geospatial variables, a spatial Gaussian process, and stacked ensemble machine learning did not meaningfully improve predictions. Serological markers among children 0-5 years old may be an objective tool for identifying communities with high levels of ocular Ct infections, but accurate, future prediction in the context of changing transmission remains an open challenge.