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A recent body of work has shown that quality of national institutions that enforce written contracts plays an important role in shaping a country’s comparative advantage. The current paper contributes to this literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of the mechanisms through which institutional frictions affect the pattern of aggregate trade flow by distinguishing its effect on the intensive and extensive margins. We find that better contracting institutions not only increase the probability of exporting (the extensive margin) but also enhance the export sales after entry (the intensive margin), particularly in industries where relationship-specific investments are most important. With around two-third to three-fourth share (depending on the definition used), the contribution of institutions along the intensive margin dominates that along the extensive margin. The benefits of improved institutions, particularly via the intensive margin, favor the less developed countries over the more developed ones. In addition, better contracting institutions increase the probability of survival of export products in more contract-intensive industries in particular. These findings are robust to measuring the intensive and extensive margins using a more granular export data based on firm-level aggregates, as well as the variety and destination based definitions.

This study provides empirical evidence and develops a model that captures the complex intra-household bargaining interactions and gender-based intergenerational occupational mobility. Using panel data from Nigeria, our estimates show that greater intra-household female bargaining power leads to greater intergenerational occupational mobility for sons more than daughters. Similarly, the median age at first marriage has a positive impact on occupational mobility for both daughters and sons. However, benefit is larger for sons. In the model, parental gender bias is modeled as non-pecuniary (psychic) cost – a representation of parents’ pessimistic attitude towards their children’s adulthood outcomes – which negatively affects the marginal benefit of investing in children’s human capital. The decision of parents is critical in determining children’s mobility and becomes the basis of gender-based differences in human capital investment and intergenerational persistence.

School meals have been introduced as an important policy tool to improve education outcomes and pupil’s nutritional status. This study uses a unique and large-scale randomised field experiment to assess the effectiveness of such programmes on pupils’s performance (test scores in French, mathematics and the aggregate) and on the internal efficiency of schools (enrolment, promotion, repetition and dropout) in rural Senegal. We show that attrition and non-compliance occurred not at random in the experiment. Relying on the average treatment effect and the complier effects, we find that the programme has a positive and significant impact on pupils’ scores and on the enrolment rate. However, the repetition rate increased. The intervention has a marked gender effect. Cost-effectiveness analysis shows that deworming intervention is more cost-effective than school meals.

We employ survey data for 108 developing countries over the period 2006–2017 and estimate an ordered probit model to determine the firm and country characteristics that affect the probability that a firm is energy poor—i.e., the firm will report that electricity is an obstacle to the firm's operations. We find that firms that experienced power outages and firms in the manufacturing industry are more likely to be energy poor. In contrast, majority-owned government firms and older firms are less likely to be energy poor. The gender of the firm owner and the size of the firm are not correlated with firm energy poverty. Among firms that experienced power outages, firm energy poverty increases with the frequency as well as the duration of outages. We also find that firms that operate in countries with weak institutions and in countries where residents have limited access to electricity are more likely to be energy poor.

This study analyzes the intergenerational transmission of education in nine Sub-Saharan African countries, using nationally representative household survey data on parents of adult individuals. It provides the levels and trends of intergenerational persistence of years of schooling over 50 years, and it also ranks the nine countries relative to other nations. There is a declining cohort trend in the intergenerational persistence of education, particularly after the 1960s. Nevertheless, the education of parents remains a strong determinant of the educational outcomes of children. The analysis also documents country heterogeneity (intergenerational educational mobility varies significantly across countries) and a marked gender effect: daughter's education attainment is more correlated with her parents' education than that of sons. From a policy perspective, our result points to the importance of targeted redistributive policies and the expansion of secondary education to improve mobility.

International audience; Oil-dependent countries face a twin-shock: in addition to the COVID-19 outbreak, they are facing an oil price collapse. In this paper, we study the impact of this dual shock on the forecasted GDP growth in Africa using the COVID-19 outbreak as a natural experiment. We use the IMF World Economic Outlook’s GDP growth forecasts before and after the outbreak. We find that COVID-19 related deaths result in -2.75 percentage points forecasted GDP growth loss in the all sample while oil-dependence induces -7.6 percentage points loss. We document that the joint shock entails higher forecasted growth loss in oil-dependent economies (-10.75 percentage points). Based on oil price forecasts and our empirical findings, we identify five recovery policies with high potential: social safety net policy, economic diversification, innovation and technological transformation, fiscal discipline, and climate-friendly recovery policy.

Several policies or interventions have been implemented in developing countries with the ultimate goal of improving educational outcomes and human capital. Although many empirical studies have pointed to mixed results of these interventions, the role of uncertainty arising from the state of nature about the educational environment and household characteristics in the efficiency of these interventions still lacks an economic mechanism. This paper aims at developing a theoretical framework that links policy interventions to educational outcomes. We characterize optimal policies and determine the conditions for enhancing social welfare.

This study endeavors to answer two questions: which category of excise taxes is more appropriate for Senegal and Nigeria and which consequences an increase of the tobacco taxes would have on the price, the demand and the tax revenues in each one of the two countries? To answer these questions, we adopt a double approach: first, a theoretical model of taxation with variety; and second, a simulation model to answer the second question. The results of the theoretical model indicate that, in the context of excise taxation, the number of products variety—or that of cigarette brands—directly affects both the degree of market concentration and the marginal effects of specific and ad valorem excise taxes on the price of tobacco. In addition, the comparison of the marginal effects of ad valorem and specific excise taxes depends on the marginal costs of production of different varieties weighted by the tax rates and the number of varieties. Our empirical results first show that the specific excise taxes are more adapted to Senegal while ad valorem excise taxes fit best Nigeria. This result crucially matters for the excise taxes are exclusively of an ad valorem nature in both Senegal and Nigeria. It is perfectly possible to envisage a situation where the two main forms of excise taxes could co-exist. It also appears from our results that tax development does not have the same implications for the two countries. Increasing tobacco taxes in Senegal strongly reduces the demand, but also induces a decrease in the tax revenues, while this will imply a lesser decline in demand in Nigeria accompanied however by a sharp increase of the country’s tax revenues. This difference stems from the fact that the price-elasticity of tobacco demand is very high in Senegal, contrary to Nigeria. Finally, it is important to mention that there is a specific threshold beyond which the tax increases cease to have a positive effect on tax revenues in Nigeria.

International audience; Besides the dreadful direct effects, enduring epidemics like HIV/AIDS induce much more subtle effects in the economy, principally via labor productivity and factor accumulation.Concerning the former, the impact of morbidity on effective labor has been recognized and accounted for since the early work of Over (1992) and Cuddington and Hancock (1994).The impact of mortality shocks on savings, and therefore on factor accumulation, has also been documented in this early literature, with an emphasis on the detrimental role of the inducedhealth expenditures. Recently, Asiedu, Jin, and Kanyama (2015) show that HIV/AIDS has a negative but diminishing effect on foreign direct investment (FDI), and this adverse effect occurseven when the prevalent HIV rate is low. In contrast, the consequences of HIV/AIDS on human capital accumulation have been more rarely treated. In particular, its impact on schoolingtime n generally omitted in the macroeconomic literature. Ferreira, Pessôa, and Dos Santos (2011) is an exception. The inherent mechanism is known as the Ben Porath mechanism (Ben Porath 1967): a downward trendin life expectancy following mortality shocks reduces the profitability of schooling, leading to a decline of human capital accumulation in the medium and long run. Boucekkine, de la Croix, and Licandro (2002) have proposed a theory ofendogenous growth based on the Ben-Porath mechanism. Notice also that the same essential argument (that shorter time horizons discourage investment) can be applied to physical capitalaccumulation; the latter may collapse not only because of the massive increase in health expenditures undermining savings as in the early literature but also via this indirect mechanism. Bothchannels are taken into account by Freire (2004) in her analysis of saving behavior in South Africa after the outbreak of the HIV/AIDS crisis.

This paper studies the diffusion of products and behaviour with coordination effects through social networks when agents are myopic best responders. We develop a new network measure, the contagion threshold, that determines when a p-dominant action – an action that is a best response when adopted by at least proportion p of an agent's opponents – spreads to the whole population starting from a group of players whose size is smaller than half and independent of the population size. We show that a p-dominant action spreads to the whole network whenever the contagion threshold of that network is greater or equal to p. We then show that in settings where agents regularly or occasionally experiment and choose non-optimal actions, there exists a threshold level of experimentation below which a p-dominant action is chosen with the highest probability in the long run. This result implies that targeted contagion, a network-wide diffusion of actions initiated by targeting agents, is justified even in settings where agents' decisions are noisy.

We study dynamics of interactions among economic growth, population, and environmental quality when stochastic shocks in these systems display long-memory property. We make two important contributions. First, we show that the long-memory persistence in economic growth is determined jointly by the convergence speed of shocks in both environmental quality and population. Second, by simulating a modified Solow-Swan economy we demonstrate that the convergence-speed of shocks in these systems significantly affects the long-run growth trajectory of output. Our empirical examination evince that adjustment of output to long-run equilibrium is very slow, thanks to the slowly dissipating population and pollution shocks.

We present a set of theoretical and empirical papers and briefly describe the specific contributions to the Macroeconomic Dynamics special issue on technology aspects in the process of development.

This paper employs nationally representative household survey data on parents of adult individuals to analyze the intergenerational transmission of education in nine Sub-Saharan African countries. The paper provides the levels, trends, and patterns of intergenerational persistence of educational attainment over 50 years, with a special focus on gender differences. The study finds a declining cohort trend in the intergenerational educational persistence in all the countries, particularly after the 1960s. The increase in educational mobility coincides with drastic changes in educational systems and a huge investment in human capital accumulation in the region following independence. Nevertheless, the education of parents' remains a strong determinant of educational outcomes among the children in all the countries. Ghana, Guinea, Nigeria, and Uganda experienced the highest intergenerational mobility, and the Comoros and Madagascar the lowest. In all the sample countries, more mobility is observed in the lower tail of the distribution of education. Intergenerational educational persistence is strong from mothers to children, and the effect is more pronounced among daughters than sons. The results highlight the need for targeted redistributive policies that improve intergenerational mobility in the region.

International audience; Relying on a structural nonparametric estimation, we show that co2 emissions clearly increase with income at low income levels. For higher income levels, we observe a decreasing relationship, though not significant. We also find that co2 emissions monotonically increases with energy use at a decreasing rate.; À l’aide d’une modélisation non paramétrique structurelle, nous montrons que les émissions de co2 augmentent clairement avec le revenu pour de faibles niveaux de revenus. Cette relation est décroissante bien que non significative pour des niveaux de revenu élevés. Nous observons également que les émissions de co2 augmentent de manière monotone, mais à un taux décroissant, avec la consommation d’énergie.

We provide a reappraisal of income convergence across European regions over the last two decades by using a semiparametric partially linear model to approximate the relationship between the average growth rate of GDP per capita and the initial GDP per capita. Estimation results point out both country heterogeneity and non-linearity in the convergence process. The findings suggest that low income regions, in particular those from new adhesion countries, diverge while medium income regions converge and that there is no evidence of convergence for high income regions.

We first provide a nonparametric inference of the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth on an historical data for 18 countries over the period 1820-2005. The obtained shape shows up convexity for low enough values of life expectancy and concavity for large enough values. We then study this relationship on a benchmark model combining perpetual youth" and learning-by-investing. In such a benchmark, the generated relationship between life expectancy and economic growth is shown to be strictly increasing and concave. We finally examine two models departing from perpetual youth" by assuming successively age-dependent earnings and age-dependent survival probabilities. With age-dependent earnings, the obtained relationship is hump-shaped while agedependent survival laws do reproduce the convex-concave shape detected in the prior empirical study.

This paper develops a general equilibrium framework to study the role of preference structure (additive, multiplicative and a convex combination of the two) in connecting consumption, health investment, stock of health and capital, and their effects on the wage rate and on productivity. We show that the elasticities of health production, health investment and health cost determine jointly how health influences the wage rate. We examine the steady state and the equilibrium dynamics of the model. In the case of additive preferences, the existence of equilibrium and the stability of the dynamic system require that the ratio of the elasticities of the cost of health and health investment is greater than the elasticity of the production function of health. Health stock can have either positive or negative effects on wages via a mechanism of reservation wages. When preferences are multiplicative, the condition of the existence of equilibrium and the stability of the dynamic system reverse, and the effect of health stock on wages is always positive. Longevity is a decreasing convex-concave function of the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution of health. We also compare the relative behavior of opportunity costs of health under preference structure.

This paper examines the relationship between the environmental and economic performance of firms in the European paper manufacturing industry. It initially discusses possible functional relationships between environmental and economic performance rooted in different theoretical frameworks and links these to recent empirical and theoretical analyses of the Porter hypothesis. Following this, it reports the results of an empirical study carried out in the European paper industry. Findings fit better with 'traditionalist' reasoning about the relationship between environmental and economic performance, which predicts the relationship to be uniformly negative. In particular they confirm the necessity for a more differentiated view of the Porter hypothesis. This paper examines the relationship between the environmental and economic performance of firms in the European paper manufacturing industry. It initially discusses possible functional relationships between environmental and economic performance rooted in different theoretical frameworks and links these to recent empirical and theoretical analyses of the Porter hypothesis. Following this, it reports the results of an empirical study carried out in the European paper industry. Findings fit better with 'traditionalist' reasoning about the relationship between environmental and economic performance, which predicts the relationship to be uniformly negative. In particular they confirm the necessity for a more differentiated view of the Porter hypothesis.

We use country panel data spanning over 1998-2008 for both developed and developing countries to study the productivity growth when countries are close to the technology frontier. Relying on a semi-parametric generalized additive model, we estimate both reduced and structural forms for total factor productivity growth. We consider three measurements of frontier: the economy with the highest level of productivity growth, the world productivity growth and the productivity growth of the USA. We obtain a U-shape relation between productivity growth and the proximity to the world productivity growth. The relation between productivity growth and human capital displays an inverted U-shape form (res. U-shape) when the proximity to the highest productivity growth is used (res. the proximity to productivity growth of the USA). Total staff in R&D has an inverted W-shape effect on productivity growth. The share of R&D expenditure funded by government and from abroad impact positively the growth of productivity. However, the increase in government spending on R&D has a greater impact on productivity growth when the former is weak, and a smaller impact when R&D spending is already high. International trade has a positive effect on productivity growth. Specification tests show that our semi-parametric models provide a better approximation of the data compared to the parametric analogue, revealing a high degree of nonlinearity governing productivity growth.

This paper examines the polarization of economic development in African economies. Based on nonparametric and bipolarization frameworks, we find that countries tend to cluster in two classes, and that bipolarization has been accelerating over the period 1966–2008. We relate the evolution of income bipolarization to specialization in a country. The main sectors that tend to reduce income bipolarization are mining and services. We also study the effects of innovation on income polarization. In particular, we analyze short-run and long-run effects of innovation and their inter-relationship with income polarization. We show that the impact of innovation differs depending on its origin and its type. If innovation is resident, then trademarks outweigh patents. On the contrary, if the origin of innovation is non resident, then patents have a greater effect. Moreover, there is an adjustment process between trademarks residents and patents residents. In the short-run, when trademarks residents are too high, they quickly fall back toward patents residents level. We do not observe such adjustments between trademarks non residents and patents non residents. Last, unexpected shocks that affect patents (res. trademarks) have a permanent (res. transitory) effects on income polarization.

We examine the empirical relation between CO2 emissions per capita and GDP per capita during the period 1960–1996, using a panel of 100 countries. Relying on the nonparametric poolability test of Baltagi et al. [Baltagi, B.H., Hidalgo, J., Li, Q., 1996. A nonparametric test for poolability using panel data, Journal of Econometrics 75, 345–367], we find evidence of structural stability of the relationship. We then specify a nonparametric panel data model with country-specific effects. Estimation results show that this relationship is upward sloping. Nonparametric specification tests do not reject monotonicity but do reject the polynomial functional form which leads to the environmental Kuznets curve in several studies.

This paper explores the relationship between the growth rates of per capita income and age- structured population in a non-parametric setting. Analysis in this framework provides us with new insights about the interaction structure: significant non-linear relation between the two and interesting ’direct’ and ’feedback’ effects on growth. Nonlinearity is found to be a major source of growth fluctuations in OECD and non-OECD countries.

This paper contributes to the interface literature of new methodological foundation of analyzing historical data with space and spatio-temporal phenomena. In particular, I consider estimating the spatial panel autoregressive model using the minimum distance estimator. Spatial autoregression has important implications for economic system that typifies correlatedness across many spatial locations and which could evolve over long span of time. To overcome computational difficulties, I suggest a two-stage estimation procedure based on minimum distance estimators. A striking feature of the proposed model is that minimum distance estimates are derived under common slopes and complete equality of parameters across spatial units. Assumption of common slopes across spatial units is an empirical and theoretical plausibility as many spatial units are observed to share common trend and typology of changes occurring to the individual system under which equality of parameters are possibilities. The estimation strategy allows various restrictions on time-varying vector parameters. Moreover, those restrictions can easily be tested. I apply this procedure to the residential demand for water of 115 French municipalities over the biannual period 1988–1993. The primary contribution of the paper is to the methodological side of cliometrics while the empirical application (with shorter time period) has been presented for illustrative purpose although, it can nonetheless be readily applied to historical data with long-time horizon allowing for restrictions such as spatio-temporal common vector and structural break in parameter estimates.

This survey of economic growth theory applied to epidemiology highlights that Blanchard-Yaari structures involving a Lucas human capital accumulation are appropriate to study an AIDS-like crisis. Physical capital accumulation, schooling, health expenditures and supply effects are put together within a Blanchard two-sector economy to capture life-cycle effects of AIDS-like epidemics.

We use a partly linear semi-parametric model to study the convergence of European Union regions. The data are taken from the Eurostat base and cover 223 EU regions for the period 1990-2000. The estimation results indicate the presence of non-linearity and heterogeneity in the convergence process. Convergence occurs only in regions with low GDP per capita (approx . 8.5 % of the sample). These regions converge at different speeds and can be caught in a poverty trap. By comparison with the linear regression model typically used in the literature, our test results show that the semi-parametric specification yields a better approximation of the data., Nous utilisons un modèle semi-paramétrique partiellement linéaire pour étudier la convergence des régions européennes. Les données proviennent de la base Eurostat et portent sur 223 régions de l’Union européenne pour la période 1990-2000. Les résultats d’estimation indiquent la présence de non-linéarités et d’hétérogénéité dans le processus de convergence. La convergence se produit uniquement pour les régions ayant un faible PIB par habitant (environ 8,5 % de l’échantillon). Ces régions convergent à des vitesses différentes et peuvent être piégées dans une trappe à pauvreté. Comparée au modèle de régression linéaire généralement utilisé dans la littérature, les résultats de tests indiquent que la spécification semi-paramétrique fournit une meilleure approximation des données., Cuong Pham Thi Kim, Nguyen Van Phu, El Ouardighi Jalal, Azomahou Théophile. Estimation semi-paramétrique de la convergence des régions européennes. In: Économie & prévision, n°173, 2006-2. pp. 97-110.

This paper studies how the spatial effects of demographic system affects economic growth of different countries. Population growth shocks (whether in aggregate or in disaggregate form) in general have spatial movement that is deemed to contribute to economic growth fluctuations depending upon their convergence properties to the long-run level. By constructing a ‘demographic distance’ function based on both average age-shares and their stochastic time series characteristics, we show that persistence of spatial demographic system has had discernible effects on economic growth of Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America and Offshore countries in the last four decades. While the temporal study of demographic system on economic growth fluctuations is getting popularity, this paper goes a step further to explain persistence properties of economic growth by embedding temporal features by studying a spatial VAR model of demography and economic growth.

International audience

We use a panel data set of 59 developing countries over the 1972–1994 period to study the deforestation process. Relying on both parametric and semiparametric models, we examine nonlinearities and heterogeneity in the deforestation process. We first study the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and then analyze determinants of deforestation. Our data sample provides no evidence of an EKC. We also find that political institution failures may worsen the deforestation process in developing countries.

We first provide an empirical sstudy of the energy-saving technological progress on the ENERDATA database. Energy intensity is shown to decrease over the period 1971-1999 in OECD countries, indicating a significant energy-saving technical progress trend. We also show via semiparametric partially linear estimations that : (i) this trend is positively correlated with the investment rate, and (ii) the marginal productivity of investment has accelerated in the sub-period 1985-1999 compared to 1971-1984. Second, we build a general equilibrium vintage capital model with embodied energy-saving technical progress to formalize these findings. In this set-up, we study to which extent a steady increase in the marginal productivity of investment and/or scrapping subsidies could compensate the output loss due to a cut in energy use. The latter fiscal policy is shown to be particularly inefficient in this respect, even under rapid energy-saving technical progress. In the end, our model predicts that the implementation of Kyoto-like protocols in the computers age is much less painful than what it could have been two decades ago.

Cet article étudie l'hypothèse d'utilité relative selon laquelle l'utilité de l'individu dépend non seulement de ses propres caractéristiques mais aussi de termes interdépendants. Nous utilisons les données de la base German Socio-Economic Panel pour étudier la relation entre la satisfaction dans la vie (mesure subjective de l'utilité), le revenu et le revenu de référence. Ce dernier est défini comme le revenu moyen du Länder où réside l'individu. Nous retenons une spécification de type probit ordonné sur données de panel avec deux types d'effets spécifiques aléatoires : un effet individuel et un effet de ménage. Les résultats d'estimation confirment l'hypothèse d'utilité relative. L'hypothèse de la séparabilité de la fonction d'utilité par rapport au revenu et au revenu de référence est rejetée.

This paper examines the empirical interplay between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions using panel data.Relying on nonparametric methods, we find evidence supporting specifications which assume the constancy of the relationship between per capita CO2 emissions and per capita GDP during the period of the study. Moreover, the usually adopted polynomial functional form is rejected against our nonparametric modelling. It is shown that the relationship between gas emissions and GDP displays more complex patterns, despite its monotonous shape, than the well-known Kuznets curve obtained from ad hoc parametric specifications. The economic development process has a negative effect on gas emissions, especially for the early and the advanced stages of development. As a result, developed countries as well as developing countries should make efforts to reduce CO2 emissions.

This paper examines the relationship between the environmental and economic performance of firms in the European paper manufacturing industry. Based on panel data, it first investigates the relationship separately, with the analysis based on four hypotheses formulated with regard to country influence, process influence and firm size influence on environmental and economic performance. Hypotheses are tested using pooled regression and a panel regression framework with random firm and temporal effects. The main results of this analysis based on separated regressions are that (i) only for a direct comparison between the UK and Germany, country effects are found to be consistent with the hypotheses, i.e. German firms have better environmental, but worse economic performance than UK firms, (ii) there is a significant sub-sector effect on environmental performance only, (iii) effectively no significant firm size effect can be detected. Subsequent to analysing the relationship separately, the paper estimates the determinants of the relationship between environmental and economic performance using three simultaneous equations systems. It was found that for the system with return on sales as economic performance variable, and an environmental performance index as environmental performance variable, a significant and positive regression coefficient was estimated for the asset-turnover ratio, as well as significant and negative coefficients for the dummy variables representing the industrial and mixed sub-sector. For the system with return on capital employed and the environmental index, significant and positive coefficients were found for the latter, both linear and squared. This last finding fits better with "traditionalist" reasoning about the relationship between environmental and economic performance, which predicts the relationship to be uniformly negative.

This paper considers estimating general spatial autoregressive models using the generalized method of moments (GMM). I propose nonparametric estimates of the optimal instruments based on conditional second moment restrictions. I show that these instruments are optimal over all possible instruments, especially over those usually suggested in a spatial context. I provide a nonparametric estimator of sample autocovariances function for irregularly spaced spatial processes, and I show that this estimator converges in probability. I then derive the consistency in norm L_2 of the resulting asymptotic variance matrix estimator. Finally, the asymptotic distribution of the GMM estimator is stated.

We propose an empirical application of lattice models to actual household-level data based on the generalized method of moments. We take advantage of the two dimensional structure of panel data to construct a lattice specification. Then, a class of nonparametric, positive semidefinite covariance matrix estimators that allow for a general form of spatial dependence characterized by a metric of economic distance is introduced. This framework is applied to estimating spatial patterns in the residential demand for drinking water. Estimation results indicate that accounting for spatial dependence yields efficient estimate of the asymptotic variance matrix. Compared to non-spatial strategies, spatial dependence implies higher standard errors for all parameter estimates so as to strongly modify patterns of significance.

This study explores spatial regimes variation and the impact of public sector wa ter pricing for municipality aggregate residential water demand including electricity price effe cts. I compare estimations from two cross-sections (1988.1 and 1993.1) on a French lattice samp le, and propose a parametric spatial autoregressive regime switching model where water a verage price is approximated by a linear spline based on nonparametric regressions. I f ind evidence of spatial dependence. Consumers respond to both water and electricity average p rice. Changes in electricity price induce modifications of water consumption distribut ion according to patterns of water use. Public sector pricing results in shifts of role in reg imes between periods.

Cet article étudie la relation empirique entre la déforestation, la croissance économique et la population à partir d'un échantillon de 85 pays en voie de développement. Nous utilisons plusieurs spécifications d'un modèle de panel à effets fixes avec diverses structures du terme d'erreur. L'étude ne met pas en évidence une courbe environnementale de Kuznets de forme U inversée décrivant la relation entre le taux de déforestation et le revenu par tête. A l'inverse, nous obtenons une relation de forme U. Les résultats suggèrent qu'une augmentation du taux de croissance du revenu par tête permet de réduire le taux de déforestation. Finalement, nous montrons que la pression démographique peut amplifier le processus de déforestation.

The impact of education and gender discrimination are the main objectives of this thesis in the perspective of Sustainable Development Goals including women empowerment, welfare and economic development (Envision 2030). It is important to examine that education investment and provision of basic human rights with equal distribution of the resources should consign without gender discrimination. This thesis provides empirical evidence to assess the impact of female human capital on economic welfare, empowerment and gender difference in determination of education achievement in Pakistan. The first chapter introduces the education and economic development in theoretical and factual practices towards females. It elaborates in detail about the educational system, reforms and commission from inception to date with the status of the females in the Pakistani society. It links the connection between gender discrimination, welfare and empowerment provided with theoretical evidences. The second chapter explores the relationship of the education attainment with the women empowerment in the household decision-making in monetary and non-monetary aspects relying on the survey data of the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement. Evidence has shown that education has positive and significant impact to increase the empowerment in household decision-making and provides an optimal solution in restricted areas of the country. Meanwhile, the joint decision-making is appropriate than unitary one in the household expenditure, marriage and family planning, however, it is the opposite for son preference. Women in wealthier families are more likely to empower with education as compared to poor families, while, this impact varies by age and provinces. Furthermore, the study suggests public and community intervention from subsidizing schooling to provision of contraceptive at a lower cost. The third chapter focuses on the single females whether never married, widows and divorced, and their contribution with socio-economic background in improving economic welfare of the household. With the help of multilevel model regression, it is analyzed that education of the single females has a significant impact on the household’s welfare. Eventually, widows and divorced ones contribute higher than never married females once they are acquainted with education. Evidences are provided of wider disparities between households as compared to within household. The fourth chapter determines the education attainment and current enrollment in the framework of gender difference with income per capita and socioeconomic characteristics of the household, as well as, it attempts to capture the potential endogeneity between income and education. It also explores the effects of gender differences within the household by gender and educational inequalities. The findings provide strong evidence of gender differences in education attainment and current enrollment with income and socioeconomic characteristics. In addition, educational inequalities and gender gap highly likely to decrease girls’ education and income of the household respectively. Meanwhile, Oaxaca type decomposition provides higher percentage of unexplained variations. I find evidence of transitional gap from lower to higher education attainment, while, personal and household attribute play differently with gender in current enrollment. It emphasizes on reforming educational and public policies according to the demand of education, economic condition, and treatment towards children particularly with girls in the household.; L'impact de l'éducation et la discrimination de genre sont les principaux objectifs de cette thèse dans la perspective des Objectifs de Développement Durable (ODD) incluant l'autonomisation des femmes, le bien-être et le développement économique (Envision 2030). Il est important d'examiner que l'investissement dans l'éducation et la fourniture des droits fondamentaux de l'homme avec une distribution égale des ressources devraient être consignés sans discrimination de genre. Cette thèse fournit des preuves empiriques de l'impact du capital humain féminin sur le bien-être économique, l'autonomisation et la différence de genre dans la détermination de la réussite scolaire au Pakistan. Le premier chapitre introduit l'éducation et le développement économique dans les pratiques théoriques, empiriques et factuelles envers les femmes. Il décrit en détail le système éducatif, les réformes et les commissions depuis le début jusqu'à aujourd'hui, ainsi que le statut des femmes dans la société pakistanaise. Il établit un lien entre la discrimination fondée sur le sexe, le bien-être et l'autonomisation à l'aide de preuves théoriques. Le deuxième chapitre explore la relation entre le niveau d'éducation et l'autonomisation des femmes dans la prise de décision au sein du foyer, dans ses aspects monétaires et non monétaires, en s'appuyant sur les données de l'enquête Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement. Les données ont montré que l'éducation a un impact positif et significatif sur l'autonomisation dans la prise de décision au sein du foyer et fournissent une solution optimale dans les zones restreintes du pays. Parallèlement, la prise de décision conjointe est plus appropriée que la prise de décision unilatérale en ce qui concerne les dépenses du ménage, le mariage et le planning familial, mais c'est l'inverse pour la préférence pour les fils. Les femmes des familles riches sont plus susceptibles de s'autonomiser par l'éducation que celles des familles pauvres, mais cet impact varie selon l'âge et les provinces. En outre, l'étude suggère une intervention publique et communautaire allant de la subvention de la scolarité à la fourniture de contraceptifs à moindre coût. Le troisième chapitre se concentre sur les femmes célibataires, qu'elles n'aient jamais été mariées, qu'elles soient veuves ou divorcées, et sur leur contribution, avec le contexte socio-économique, à l'amélioration du bien-être économique du ménage. A l'aide d'un modèle de régression multiniveau, il est analysé que l'éducation des femmes célibataires a un impact significatif sur le bien-être du ménage. En fin de compte, les veuves et les divorcées contribuent davantage que les femmes jamais mariées une fois qu'elles ont acquis une éducation. Des preuves ont fourni des disparités plus importantes entre les ménages qu'au sein d'un même ménage. Le quatrième chapitre détermine le niveau d'éducation et l'inscription actuel dans le cadre de la différence de genre avec le revenu par habitant et les caractéristiques socio-économiques du ménage, et tente de capturer l'endogénéité potentielle entre le revenu et l'éducation. Elle explore également les effets des différences de genre au sein du ménage en fonction des inégalités de genre et d'éducation. Les résultats fournissent des preuves solides de différences entre les sexes en matière de niveau d'éducation et d'inscription actuel en fonction du revenu et des caractéristiques socio-économiques. En outre, les inégalités éducatives et l'écart entre les sexes sont fortement susceptibles de diminuer l'éducation des filles et le revenu du ménage respectivement. Parallèlement, la décomposition de type Oaxaca fournit un pourcentage plus élevé de variations inexpliquées. (...)

The observed effects of climate change over the last decades highlight the urgency of mobilizing enough resources to slow it down and mitigate its effects. In the case of developing countries, some suggest that development aid has an important role to play. However, the political ambitions of decision-makers should not be in competition with environmental ones. This thesis examines the existing links between foreign aid, political cycles and environmental degradation, through three empirical chapters. Chapter 2 studies the link between foreign aid and CO2 mitigation in 112 developing countries. It shows that the effect of aid depends on the donor, with multilateral aid more likely to reduce pollution than bilateral aid for which there is no effect. Nevertheless, a bilateral aid specifically targeted toward environment contributes to decrease the level of pollution. This later impact is non-linear, a pollution-reducing effect is only observed for important amounts of environmental bilateral aid. Chapter 3 studies the factors associated with environmental bilateral aid to recipient countries over the 1990-2013 period. The objective is to assess whether the environmental bilateral aid is motivated by non-environmental factors such as donors’ economic and political interests. Three kind of variables that might influence environmental aid allocation are examined: the environmental and non-environmental needs and merits of recipient countries, and the economic and political interests of donors. Environmental needs and merits variables include vulnerability to extreme climate events and the stringency of climate policy. The results show that while vulnerability to climate change seems to be a key determinant of environmental aid, its allocation is poorly linked to recipients’ climate mitigation policies. It finds weak evidence of association between donors’ interest variables and environmental aid on average. However, an heterogeneity analysis allows to go deeper into all the relations above, and unveils that some donors are more sensitive to environmental variables, while others rather seem focused on their economic and political interests. Chapter 4 explores how elections impact climate change policy and environmental degradation, using a sample of 76 democratic countries from 1990 to 2014. The findings indicate election years are characterized by an increase in CO2 emissions, even though the effect weakens over the recent years. It also reveals that this effect is present only in established democracies, where incumbents engage in fiscal manipulation through the composition of public spending rather than its level. Higher freedom of the press and high environmental preferences from citizens reduce the size of this “political pollution cycle”., Les effets observés du changement climatique sur les dernières décennies mettent en exergue le besoin et l’urgence de mobiliser suffisamment de ressources pour le ralentir et en atténuer les effets. Dans le cas des pays en développement, d’aucuns suggèrent que l’aide au développement aurait un rôle non des moindres à jouer dans cette lutte. Cependant, encore faudrait-il que les ambitions politiques des décideurs ne soient pas en compétition avec celles environnementales. Cette thèse examine les liens existants entre l’aide au développement, les cycles politiques et la dégradation de l’environnement, à travers trois chapitres empiriques. Le chapitre 2 étudie le lien entre l’aide et l’atténuation des émissions de CO2 dans 112 pays en développement. Il montre que l’effet de l’aide dépend du type de donneur, l’aide multilatérale étant plus susceptible de réduire la pollution que l’aide bilatérale pour laquelle il n’y a pas d’effet. Cependant, une aide bilatérale spécifiquement ciblée sur la protection de l’environnement contribue à réduire le niveau de pollution. Cet impact est toutefois non linéaire, un effet de réduction de la pollution n’étant observé que pour des montants importants d’aide bilatérale environnementale. Le chapitre 3 étudie les facteurs associés à l’allocation de l’aide bilatérale environnementale entre les pays bénéficiaires, sur la période 1990-2013. L’objectif est d’évaluer si l’aide bilatérale environnementale est motivée par des facteurs non environnementaux tels que les intérêts économiques et politiques des donneurs. Trois types de variables susceptibles d’influencer l’allocation de l’aide environnementale sont examinés : les besoins et les mérites environnementaux et non environnementaux des pays bénéficiaires, ainsi que les intérêts économiques et politiques des donneurs. Les variables relatives aux besoins et aux mérites environnementaux comprennent la vulnérabilité aux événements climatiques extrêmes et la rigueur de la politique environnementale. Les résultats des régressions montrent que si la vulnérabilité au changement climatique semble être un déterminant clé de l’aide environnementale, son allocation est peu ou pas liée aux efforts d’atténuation du changement climatique des bénéficiaires. Il trouve également peu d’évidence empirique sur une quelconque association entre les variables d’intérêt des donneurs et l’aide environnementale, en moyenne. Cependant, une analyse désagrégée révèle d’importantes hétérogénéités dans ces relations, et révèle ainsi que certains donneurs sont plus sensibles aux variables environnementales, tandis que d’autres semblent plutôt se concentrer sur leurs intérêts économiques et politiques. Le chapitre 4 explore l’impact des élections sur la politique environnementale et la dégradation de l’environnement, en utilisant un échantillon de 76 pays démocratiques de 1990 à 2014. Les estimations indiquent que les années électorales sont caractérisées par une augmentation des émissions de CO2, même si cet effet semble s’atténuer sur les années plus récentes. Il révèle également que cet effet n’est présent que dans les démocraties plus anciennes, où les électeurs sont plus avisés et où les dirigeants se livrent à des manipulations budgétaires via la composition des dépenses publiques plutôt que par leur niveau. Une plus grande liberté de la presse et des préférences environnementales élevées de la part des électeurs permettent de réduire l’ampleur de ce cycle.

The recent surges in food commodity prices have drawn attention on one of most severe sources of vulnerability for developing countries. In addition to financial constraints that these countries already face, (among these, the lack of insurance system to weather external shocks), their households also spend an outsized portion of their budgets on food consumption. Consequently, they experienced substantial increase in their import bills in the wake of surges in food prices. This thesis presents several essays that examine on one hand the public policies taken in response to import food shocks. On the other hand, since trade-related policies as well as exports concentration may also heighten countries’ vulnerability, relevant aspects of international trade are also discussed.The first half of this dissertation examines the link between import food price shocks and fiscal policy. Essay 1 describes the effect of food price shocks on governments' expenditure structure, while Essays 2 and 3 turn to how governments' use of discretionary fiscal policy and fiscal stimulus during food price shocks affect household consumption and socio-political instability.The second half of the thesis consists of two essays addressing agricultural price distortion and exports upgrading. Essay 4 lays out the impact of climatic variability on agricultural price distortions, while essay 5 focuses on how exports concentration and exports quality upgrading impact household consumption volatility., Les montées de prix des produits alimentaires au cours de la dernière décennie ont attiré l’attention sur une des sources de vulnérabilité les plus sévères dans les pays en développement. Au regard des défaillances du système financier (en l’occurrence le manque de produits d’assurance appropriés pour faire face aux chocs extérieurs), ces pays pour la plupart importateurs nets, ont vu leurs factures d’importations exploser à la suite des dernières flambées de prix de produits alimentaires. Cette thèse présente quelques essais analysant, d’une part les politiques publiques en réponse aux crises alimentaires, et d’autre part l’amélioration des exportations dans les pays en développement. Constituée de trois essais, la première partie de cette thèse se focalise sur les liens entre des variantes de politiques budgétaires et les chocs de prix alimentaires à l’importation. Le premier essai présente l’effet des chocs de prix alimentaires sur les dépenses publiques, tandis que les essais 2 et 3 s’attellent à analyser les effets des politiques budgétaires discrétionnaires et des relances budgétaires sur la consommation des ménages et l’instabilité socio-politique. La deuxième partie de la thèse porte sur les distorsions des prix au commerce agricole international, et l’amélioration des exportations. Dans le quatrième essai, nous analysons l’impact des variations climatiques sur les distorsions de prix au commerce international. L’essai 5, s’intéresse quant à lui, aux effets de la concentration et de la qualité des exportations sur la volatilité de la consommation des ménages.

Compared to other regions, sub-Saharan Africa lags far behind in terms of poverty reduction and human development. This is partly explained by the low access to education combined with the weak dynamism of the labor market, characterized by a large share of vulnerable employment. In 2016, one in three children in sub-Saharan Africa is out of school and more than seven out of ten workers are employed in vulnerable jobs. This thesis proposes three empirical studies to better understand, on the one hand, access to education in sub-Saharan Africa and, on the other hand, the impact of access to a decent job on poverty reduction. Chapter 1 examines the role of social interactions in schooling decisions in rural Senegal using data from a demographic surveillance system. This study uses the caste system in Senegal and geographical proximity to build social groups. Results show that the membership to a social group strongly influences school attendance. Three mechanisms could explain this effect: social norms, the perception of return to education, and ripple effects. Chapter 2 aims to analyze whether orphans on the one hand, and non-orphans not living with their biological parents on the other hand, are disadvantaged in terms of access to education and child labor. I use data from a panel survey collected in rural Tanzania. The results show that paternal orphans and double-orphans receive less education expenditure but are not disadvantaged in terms of schooling or child labor. On the other hand, paternal orphans residing with their mothers receive on average the same amount of education expenditure as other children and are more likely to attend school. On average, non-orphaned fostered children are not different from children living with their biological parents in terms of education and child labor. These findings suggest an absence of discrimination against orphans and fostered children, but a loss of income for paternal orphans which could impede their educational outcomes. Finally, the last chapter looks at the situation of the labor market in Senegal. It attempts to analyze the best strategy to reduce poverty between access to a decent job in Senegal or migration abroad. The results indicate that both decent job and migration have a significant impact on poverty reduction, but the magnitudes of these two impacts are not significantly different. However, access to a decent job increases educational expenditure while migration has a little or no effect on educational expenditure.; Comparée aux autres régions du monde, l’Afrique subsaharienne accuse un retard important sur le plan de la réduction de la pauvreté et du développement humain en général. Le faible accès à l’éducation couplé au faible dynamisme du marché du travail, marqué par la pléthore d’emplois vulnérables, y sont pour beaucoup. En 2016, en Afrique subsaharienne, un enfant sur trois n’est pas scolarisé et plus de sept travailleurs sur dix occupent des emplois vulnérables. Cette thèse propose trois études empiriques pour mieux comprendre d’une part, l’accès à l’éducation en Afrique subsaharienne et d’autre part, l’impact de l’accès à un emploi décent sur la réduction de la pauvreté. Le chapitre 1 s’intéresse au rôle que jouent les interactions sociales dans les décisions de scolarisation des enfants en milieu rural au Sénégal à partir des données d’un suivi démographique. Cette étude utilise le système de castes au Sénégal et la proximité géographique pour construire des groupes sociaux. Les résultats montrent que l’appartenance à un groupe social détermine fortement la scolarisation des enfants. Trois mécanismes pourraient expliquer cet effet des interactions sociales : les normes sociales, la perception des rendements de l’éducation et des effets d’entraînement. Le chapitre 2 cherche à analyser si les orphelins d’une part, et les non-orphelins qui ne vivent pas avec leurs parents biologiques d’autre part, sont désavantagés en termes d’accès à l’éducation et de travail des enfants. Pour cela, j’exploite les données d’une enquête en panel collectée dans des zones rurales en Tanzanie. Les résultats montrent que les orphelins de père et les orphelins de père et de mère reçoivent moins de dépenses d’éducation mais ne sont pas désavantagés en termes de scolarisation ou de travail des enfants. Par contre, les orphelins de père qui résident avec leurs mères, reçoivent en moyenne les mêmes dépenses d’éducation que les autres enfants et ont plus de chances d’être scolarisés. En moyenne, les enfants non-orphelins qui sont confiés ne sont pas différents des enfants vivant avec leurs parents biologiques en termes d’éducation et de charges de travail. Ces résultats suggèrent une absence de discrimination envers les orphelins et les enfants confiés, mais une baisse des ressources allouées aux orphelins de père qui pourrait entraver leur éducation. Enfin, le dernier chapitre s’intéresse à la situation du marché du travail au Sénégal. Il tente d’analyser la meilleure stratégie pour réduire la pauvreté entre l’accès à un emploi décent au Sénégal ou la migration à l’étranger. Les résultats indiquent que l’accès à l’emploi décent et la migration ont tous les deux un impact important sur la réduction de la pauvreté, mais ces deux impacts ne sont pas significativement différents en termes d’ampleur. Toutefois, l’accès à l’emploi décent favorise les dépenses d’éducation des enfants contrairement à la migration qui a peu ou pas d’effets sur les dépenses d’éducation.