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Coping with a dual shock : the economic effects of COVID-19 and oil price crises on African economies
- Source :
- Resources Policy, Resources Policy, 2021, 72, pp.102093. ⟨10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102093⟩, Resources Policy, Elsevier, 2021, 72, pp.102093. ⟨10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102093⟩
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- HAL CCSD, 2021.
-
Abstract
- International audience; Oil-dependent countries face a twin-shock: in addition to the COVID-19 outbreak, they are facing an oil price collapse. In this paper, we study the impact of this dual shock on the forecasted GDP growth in Africa using the COVID-19 outbreak as a natural experiment. We use the IMF World Economic Outlook’s GDP growth forecasts before and after the outbreak. We find that COVID-19 related deaths result in -2.75 percentage points forecasted GDP growth loss in the all sample while oil-dependence induces -7.6 percentage points loss. We document that the joint shock entails higher forecasted growth loss in oil-dependent economies (-10.75 percentage points). Based on oil price forecasts and our empirical findings, we identify five recovery policies with high potential: social safety net policy, economic diversification, innovation and technological transformation, fiscal discipline, and climate-friendly recovery policy.
- Subjects :
- Economics and Econometrics
Natural experiment
Sociology and Political Science
020209 energy
Safety net
education
Diversification (finance)
World Economic Outlook
Sample (statistics)
02 engineering and technology
010501 environmental sciences
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
01 natural sciences
Article
JEL: P - Economic Systems/P.P2 - Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies/P.P2.P28 - Natural Resources • Energy • Environment
oil-dependence
0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering
Economics
JEL: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth • Aggregate Productivity • Cross-Country Output Convergence
health care economics and organizations
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
1. No poverty
COVID-19
Percentage point
[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
JEL: I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I15 - Health and Economic Development
Dual (category theory)
Shock (economics)
Economy
8. Economic growth
Africa
Law
growth forecast
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 03014207
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Resources Policy, Resources Policy, 2021, 72, pp.102093. ⟨10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102093⟩, Resources Policy, Elsevier, 2021, 72, pp.102093. ⟨10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102093⟩
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....a6eec32f1a3e3e773fcd3004e69f9b93