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Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is becoming increasingly common. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) do not explain all AF cases. Blood-based biomarkers reflecting cardiac injury such as high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) may help close this gap. Methods: We investigated the predictive ability of hsTnI for incident AF in 45,298 participants (median age 51.4 years, 45.0% men) across European community cohorts in comparison to CVRF and established biomarkers (C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide). Results: During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 1734 (3.8%) participants developed AF. Those in the highest hsTnI quarter (≥4.2 ng/L) had a 3.91-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.30, 4.63; p

AIMS: Although absolute (AID) and functional iron deficiency (FID) are known risk factors for patients with cardiovascular (CV) disease, their relevance for the general population is unknown. The aim was to assess the association between AID/FID with incident CV disease and mortality in the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 12164 individuals from three European population-based cohorts, AID was defined as ferritin&nbsp

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has a complicated relationship with the heart, leading to many adverse outcomes. Purpose The aim of the study was to evaluate the relationship between CKD and the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) along with mortality as a competing risk in general population cohorts. Methods This study was conducted as part of the BiomarCaRE project using harmonised data from 12 population-based cohorts (n=40,212) from Europe. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine hazard ratios (HRs) for the incidence of AF and HF in CKD and with competing mortality risk after adjusting for covariates. Results Mean age at baseline was 51.1 (standard deviation 11.9) years, and 49.3% were men. Overall, 3.5% had CKD at baseline. The rate for incident AF was 3.9 per 1000 person-years during follow-up. The HR for AF for those with CKD compared with those without was 1.23 (95% CI 1.00–1.52, p=0.0465) after adjustment for covariates. The rate for incident HF was 3.9 per 1000 person-years and the associated risk in the presence of CKD was HR 1.67 (95% CI 1.39–2.01). In subjects with CKD, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) showed an association with AF, while NT-proBNP and C-reactive protein (CRP) showed an association with HF. Conclusion CKD is an independent risk factor for subsequent AF and even more so for HF. In patients with CKD, NT-proBNP was clearly associated with subsequent risk of AF. In addition to this marker, hs-CRP was also associated with risk of subsequent HF. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): 7th framework programme collaborative project, grant agreement no. HEALTH-F2-2011_278913. Atrial Fibrillation and HF in CKD

Aims Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has a complicated relationship with the heart, leading to many adverse outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between CKD and the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) along with mortality as a competing risk in general population cohorts. We also included an assessment of baseline biomarkers of inflammation, myocardial injury, and left ventricular dysfunction with risk of AF and HF, respectively, to shed light on the potential underlying pathophysiology. Methods and results This study was conducted within the BiomarCaRE project using harmonized data from 12 European population‐based cohorts (n = 48 518 participants). Renal function was assessed by glomerular filtration rate estimated using the combined Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD‐EPI) equation with standardized serum creatinine (Cr) and non‐standardized serum cystatin C (CysC). Incidence of AF and HF respectively, during a median follow‐up of 8 years was recorded. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine hazard ratios (HRs) for the incidence of AF and HF in CKD and the competing risk of mortality after adjustment for covariates. The mean age at baseline was 51.4 (standard deviation 12.1) years, 49% were men. Overall, 4.3% of subjects had CKD at baseline. The rate for AF was 3.8 per 1000 person‐years during follow‐up. The HR for AF in patients with CKD compared with patients without CKD was 1.28 (95% confidence interval 1.07–1.54) after adjustment for covariates. The rate for incident HF was 4.1 per 1000 person‐years and the HR of CKD for HF was 1.71 (95% confidence interval 1.45–2.01. In subjects with CKD, N‐terminal‐pro‐brain natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP) showed an association with AF, whereas NT‐proBNP and C‐reactive protein were associated with HF. Conclusions Chronic kidney disease is an independent risk factor for subsequent AF and is even more closely associated with HF. In these relatively young participants with CKD, NT‐proBNP was strongly associated with subsequent risk of AF. For HF, in addition, elevated levels of hs‐C‐reactive protein at baseline were related to incident events.

Background Biomarkers may contribute to improved cardiovascular risk estimation. Glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is used to monitor the quality of diabetes treatment. Its strength of association with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population remains uncertain. This study aims to assess the association of HbA1c with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population. Methods Data from six prospective population-based cohort studies across Europe comprising 36,180 participants were analyzed. HbA1c was evaluated in conjunction with classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) for association with cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, and overall mortality in subjects without diabetes (N = 32,496) and with diabetes (N = 3684). Results Kaplan–Meier curves showed higher event rates with increasing HbA1c levels (log-rank-test: p 1c (in mmol/mol) in the total study population and the examined outcomes. Thus, a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.31, p = 0.02) for cardiovascular mortality, 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.24, p = 0.01) for CVD incidence, and 1.09 (95% CI 1.02–1.17, p = 0.01) for overall mortality was observed per 10 mmol/mol increase in HbA1c. The association with CVD incidence and overall mortality was also observed in study participants without diabetes with increased HbA1c levels (HR 1.12; 95% CI 1.01–1.25, p = 0.04) and HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01–1.20, p = 0.02) respectively. HbA1c cut-off values of 39.9 mmol/mol (5.8%), 36.6 mmol/mol (5.5%), and 38.8 mmol/mol (5.7%) for cardiovascular mortality, CVD incidence, and overall mortality, showed also an increased risk. Conclusions HbA1c is independently associated with cardiovascular mortality, overall mortality and cardiovascular disease in the general European population. A mostly monotonically increasing relationship was observed between HbA1c levels and outcomes. Elevated HbA1c levels were associated with cardiovascular disease incidence and overall mortality in participants without diabetes underlining the importance of HbA1c levels in the overall population.

Introduction The relevance of low testosterone concentrations for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality has been discussed in various studies. Here, we evaluate the predictive value of low baseline testosterone levels in a large population‐based cohort. Methods We measured the serum levels of testosterone in 7671 subjects (3710 male, 3961 female) of the population‐based FINRISK97 study. Results The median follow‐up (FU) was 13.8 years. During the FU, a total of 779 deaths from any cause, and 395 incident CHD events were recorded. The age‐adjusted baseline testosterone levels were similar in subjects suffering incident events during FU and those without incident events during FU (men: 15.80 vs. 17.01 nmol L−1; P = 0.69, women: 1.14 vs. 1.15 nmol L−1; P = 0.92). Weak correlations of testosterone levels were found with smoking (R = 0.09; P

OBJECTIVES This study investigates differences between women and men in heart failure (HF) risk and mortality. BACKGROUND Sex differences in HF epidemiology are insufficiently understood. METHODS I ...

Aims Classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), biomarkers, and common genetic variation have been suggested for risk assessment of atrial fibrillation (AF). To evaluate their clinical potential, we analysed their individual and combined ability of AF prediction. Methods and results In N = 6945 individuals of the FINRISK 1997 cohort, we assessed the predictive value of CVRF, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and 145 recently identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) combined in a developed polygenic risk score (PRS) for incident AF. Over a median follow-up of 17.8 years, n = 551 participants (7.9%) developed AF. In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, NT-proBNP [hazard ratio (HR) of log transformed values 4.77; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.66–6.22; P Conclusion The PRS and the established biomarker NT-proBNP showed comparable predictive ability. Both provided incremental predictive value over standard clinical variables. Further improvements for the PRS are likely with the discovery of additional SNPs.

It remains unclear which blood pressure (BP) characteristics best predict cardiovascular risk in different age groups and between sexes. We leveraged data from the MORGAM (MONICA [Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease], Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph) Project to investigate determinants of BP characteristics and their prognostic importance, in younger and older (P interaction P P P P =0.03), enhanced continuous net reclassification improvement (0.150 [95% CI, 0.087–0.215]) and improved the prognostic value of the European Society of Cardiology/European Society of Hypertension hypertension definition (categorical net reclassification improvement=0.0255, P =0.005). In conclusion, diastolic BP may provide additional prognostic utility beyond systolic BP, in predicting composite cardiovascular events among younger individuals.

Aims Natriuretic peptides are extensively studied biomarkers for atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF). Their role in the pathogenesis of both diseases is not entirely understood and previous studies several single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at the NPPA-NPPB locus associated with natriuretic peptides have been identified. We investigated the causal relationship between natriuretic peptides and AF as well as HF using a Mendelian randomization approach. Methods and results N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (N = 6669), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) (N = 6674), and mid-regional pro atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) (N = 6813) were measured in the FINRISK 1997 cohort. N = 30 common SNPs related to NT-proBNP, BNP, and MR-proANP were selected from studies. We performed six Mendelian randomizations for all three natriuretic peptide biomarkers and for both outcomes, AF and HF, separately. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) based on multiple SNPs were used as genetic instrumental variable in Mendelian randomizations. Polygenic risk scores were significantly associated with the three natriuretic peptides. Polygenic risk scores were not significantly associated with incident AF nor HF. Most cardiovascular risk factors showed significant confounding percentages, but no association with PRS. A causal relation except for small causal betas is unlikely. Conclusion In our Mendelian randomization approach, we confirmed an association between common genetic variation at the NPPA-NPPB locus and natriuretic peptides. A strong causal relationship between natriuretic peptides and incidence of AF as well as HF at the community-level was ruled out. Therapeutic approaches targeting natriuretic peptides will therefore very likely work through indirect mechanisms.

Background: Waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) are both strongly associated with risk of death, however their joint association has rarely been investigated. This study aimed to assess the combined influence of WC and HC, as well as a range of other obesity measures, with the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) death. Methods: This study uses participant data from 30 cohorts of the MORGAM Project conducted in 11 countries; 90,487 males and females aged 30-74 years, predominantly Caucasian, with no history of CVD, recruited in 1986-2010, and followed-up for up to 24 years. Hazard ratios were estimated using sex specific Cox models stratified by cohort with age as the time scale. Models included baseline categorical obesity measures, age, total and HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive drugs, smoking and diabetes. Findings: 9105 all-cause deaths were recorded during a median follow up of 10 years. Hazard ratios for all-cause death presented J- or U-shaped associations with most obesity measures. When WC and HC were included in the same model, in both men and women, for all hip sizes, having a smaller waist was found to be strongly associated with lower risk of death, except for males with the smallest hip size. In addition, among those with smaller waists, hip size was strongly negatively associated with risk of death, with around 20% more people identified as being at increased risk compared to WC alone. Interpretation: A more complex relationship between HC, WC and risk of death is revealed when both measures are considered simultaneously. This is particularly true for individuals with smaller waists, where having larger hips was protective. Considering both WC and HC in the clinical setting could help to best identify those at increased risk of death. Funding Statement: The MORGAM Project received funding from Medical Research Council London grant G0601463 (80983) and European Union FP7 project BiomarCaRE (HEALTH-F2-2011-278913). The activities of the MORGAM Data Centre have been sustained also by recent funding from European Union FP 7 project CHANCES (HEALTH-F3-2010-242244). AJC, HR and LO were supported by Deakin University. AJC is the recipient of an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Awards (project number DE160100141). SS was supported by the Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation, the County Council of Vasterbotten (ALF, VLL-548791), and Umea University. Declaration of Interests: No conflicts of interest exist in relation to this work. Ethics Approval Statement: Each MORGAM participating centre was responsible for ethical approval and patient consent, according to local rules at the time of study enrollment.

Background Atrial fibrillation is the most common serious abnormal heart rhythm, and a frequent cause of ischaemic stroke. Recent experimental studies, mainly in orchiectomised rats, report a relationship between sex hormones and atrial electrophysiology and electroanatomy. We aimed to evaluate whether low testosterone levels are predictive for atrial fibrillation and/or ischaemic stroke in men and women. Design and methods The serum total testosterone levels were measured at baseline in a population cohort of 7892 subjects (3876 male, 4016 female), aged 25–74 years, using a commercially available immunoassay. The main outcome measure was atrial fibrillation or ischaemic stroke, whichever came first. Results During a median follow-up of 13.8 years, a total of 629 subjects (8.0%) suffered from incident atrial fibrillation ( n = 426) and/or ischemic stroke ( n = 276). Cox regression analyses, adjusted for age (used as time-scale), geographical region, total cholesterol (log), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (log), hypertension medication, known diabetes, smoking status, waist-hip-ratio, and time of blood drawn, documented differential predictive value of low sex-specific testosterone levels for atrial fibrillation and/or ischaemic stroke, in men and in women: Increasing levels were associated with lower risk in men (hazard ratio per one nmol/l increase 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.93–1.00); p = 0.049). On the other hand, increasing testosterone levels were associated with higher risk in women (hazard ratio per one nmol/l increase 1.17 (95% confidence interval 1.02–1.36); p = 0.031). Conclusion Our study indicates that low testosterone levels are associated with increased risk of future atrial fibrillation and/or ischaemic stroke in men, while they are protective in women.

Background Classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF), biomarkers and genetic variation have been suggested for risk assessment of atrial fibrillation (AF). Purpose To evaluate their clinical potential, we analysed their individual and combined effectiveness in AF prediction. Methods In N=6945 individuals of the FINRISK 1997 cohort, we assessed the predictive value of CVRF, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and 145 recently identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for incident AF. Results Over a median follow-up of 17.8 years, N=551 participants (7.9%) developed AF. In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, NT-proBNP (hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.71–2.11, P C-Index for AF prediction Conclusions The PRS and the established biomarker NT-proBNP predicted incident AF comparably. Both provided incremental predictive value over standard clinical variables. Further improvements for the PRS are likely with the discovery of additional SNPs. Acknowledgement/Funding European Research Council, German Ministry of Research and Education, DZHK, European Union Seventh Framework Programme, CHANCES, THL

Most studies reporting on the association of circulating testosterone levels with type 2 diabetes in men are of cross-sectional design. Reports on the relevance of altered testosterone levels in women are scarce. Here, we evaluate the role of low serum testosterone levels for incident diabetes in men and women in a population setting of 7706 subjects (3896 females). During a mean follow up time of 13.8 years, 7.8% developed type 2 diabetes. Significant correlations of testosterone with high density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol (R = 0.21, p &lt, 0.001), body-mass-index (R = &minus, 0.23, p &lt, 0.001), and waist-to-hip-ratio (R = &minus, 0.21, p &lt, 0.001) were found in men. No correlation was found with age in men, in women, the correlation was negligible (R = 0.04, p = 0.012). In men, low testosterone levels predicted high risk of type 2 diabetes, while in women this relationship was opposite. Men with low testosterone levels showed increased risk of future diabetes (hazard ratio (HR) 2.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.91&ndash, 3.72, p &lt, 0.001 in basic model, HR 1.56 95%, CI 1.10&ndash, 2.21, p = 0.003). In women, low testosterone levels indicated lower risk with (HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.37&ndash, 0.77, p = 0.003), while the association lost significance in the fully adjusted model (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.49&ndash, 1.05, p = 0.09). Low levels of testosterone predicted future diabetes in men. A borderline opposite association was found in women.

This study investigates differences between women and men in heart failure (HF) risk and mortality.Sex differences in HF epidemiology are insufficiently understood.In 78,657 individuals (median 49.5 years of age; age range 24.1 to 98.7 years; 51.7% women) from community-based European studies (FINRISK, DanMONICA, Moli-sani, Northern Sweden) of the BiomarCaRE (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe) consortium, the association between incident HF and mortality, the relationship of cardiovascular risk factors, prevalent cardiovascular diseases, biomarkers (C-reactive protein [CRP]; N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]) with incident HF, and their attributable risks were tested in women vs. men.Over a median follow-up of 12.7 years, fewer HF cases were observed in women (n = 2,399 [5.9%]) than in men (n = 2,771 [7.3%]). HF incidence increased markedly after 60 years of age, initially with a more rapid increase in men, whereas incidence in women exceeded that of men after 85 years of age. HF onset substantially increased mortality risk in both sexes. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models showed the following sex differences for the association with incident HF: systolic blood pressure hazard ratio (HR) according to SD in women of 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05 to 1.14) versus HR of 1.19 (95% CI: 1.14 to 1.24) in men; heart rate HR of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.93 to 1.03) in women versus HR of 1.09 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.13) in men; CRP HR of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.00 to 1.20) in women versus HR of 1.32 (95% CI: 1.24 to 1.41) in men; and NT-proBNP HR of 1.54 (95% CI: 1.37 to 1.74) in women versus HR of 1.89 (95% CI: 1.75 to 2.05) in men. Population-attributable risk of all risk factors combined was 59.0% in women and 62.9% in men.Women had a lower risk for HF than men. Sex differences were seen for systolic blood pressure, heart rate, CRP, and NT-proBNP, with a lower HF risk in women.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac disease in aging populations with high comorbidity and mortality. Sex differences in AF epidemiology are insufficiently understood. Methods: In N=79 793 individuals without AF diagnosis at baseline (median age, 49.6 years; age range, 24.1–97.6 years; 51.7% women) from 4 community-based European studies (FINRISK, DanMONICA, Moli-sani Northern Sweden) of the BiomarCaRE consortium (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe), we examined AF incidence, its association with mortality, common risk factors, biomarkers, and prevalent cardiovascular disease, and their attributable risk by sex. Median follow-up time was 12.6 (to a maximum of 28.2) years. Results: Fewer AF cases were observed in women (N=1796; 4.4%), than in men (N=2465; 6.4%). Cardiovascular risk factor distribution and lipid profile at baseline were less beneficial in men than in women, and cardiovascular disease was more prevalent in men. Cumulative incidence increased markedly after the age of 50 years in men and after 60 years in women. The lifetime risk was similar (>30%) for both sexes. Subjects with incident AF had a 3.5-fold risk of death in comparison with those without AF. Multivariable-adjusted models showed sex differences for the association of body mass index and AF (hazard ratio per standard deviation increase, 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12–1.23 in women versus 1.31; 95% CI 1.25–1.38 in men; interaction P value of 0.001). Total cholesterol was inversely associated with incident AF with a greater risk reduction in women (hazard ratio per SD, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81–0.90 versus 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88–0.97 in men; interaction P value of 0.023). No sex differences were seen for C-reactive protein and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide. The population-attributable risk of all risk factors combined was 41.9% in women and 46.0% in men. About 20% of the risk was observed for body mass index. Conclusions: Lifetime risk of AF was high, and AF was strongly associated with increased mortality both in women and men. Body mass index explained the largest proportion of AF risk. Observed sex differences in the association of body mass index and total cholesterol with AF need to be evaluated for underlying pathophysiology and relevance to sex-specific prevention strategies.

BACKGROUND High-sensitivity troponin I (hs-cTnI) concentrations reflect myocardial stress. The role of hs-cTnI in predicting long-term changes in the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in general populations is not clearly defined. METHODS We investigated whether the change in 3 repeated measures of hs-cTnI collected 5 years apart in a prospective Danish study (3875 participants, initially aged 30–60 years, 51% female, disease free at baseline) improves 10-year prediction of incident CVD compared to using a single most recent hs-cTnI measurement. The change process was modelled using a joint (longitudinal and survival) model and compared to a Cox model using a single hs-cTnI measure adjusted for classic CVD risk factors, and evaluated using discrimination statistics. RESULTS Median hs-cTnI concentrations changed from 2.6 ng/L to 3.4 ng/L over 10 years. The change in hs-cTnI predicts 10-year risk of CVD (581 events); the joint model gave a hazard ratio of 1.31 per interquartile difference in hs-cTnI (95% CI 1.15–1.48) after adjustment for CVD risk factors. However, the joint model performed only marginally better (c-index improvement 0.0041, P = 0.03) than using a single hs-cTnI measure (c-index improvement 0.0052, P = 0.04) for prediction of CVD, compared to a model incorporating CVD risk factors without hs-cTnI (c-index 0.744). CONCLUSIONS The change in hs-cTnI in 5-year intervals better predicts risk of CVD in the general population, but the most recent measure of hs-cTnI, (at 10 years) is as effective in predicting CVD risk. This simplifies the use of hs-cTnI as a prognostic marker for primary prevention of CVD in the general population.

Aims Limited evidence is available on the temporal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke and their impact on mortality in the community. We sought to understand the temporal relationship of AF and ischaemic stroke and to determine the sequence of disease onset in relation to mortality. Methods and results Across five prospective community cohorts of the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project we assessed baseline cardiovascular risk factors in 100 132 individuals, median age 46.1 (25th–75th percentile 35.8–57.5) years, 48.4% men. We followed them for incident ischaemic stroke and AF and determined the relation of subsequent disease diagnosis with overall mortality. Over a median follow-up of 16.1 years, N = 4555 individuals were diagnosed solely with AF, N = 2269 had an ischaemic stroke but no AF diagnosed, and N = 898 developed both, ischaemic stroke and AF. Temporal relationships showed a clustering of diagnosis of both diseases within the years around the diagnosis of the other disease. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses with time-dependent covariates subsequent diagnosis of AF after ischaemic stroke was associated with increased mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17–7.54; P Conclusion The temporal relations of ischaemic stroke and AF appear to be bidirectional. Ischaemic stroke may precede detection of AF by years. The subsequent diagnosis of both diseases significantly increases mortality risk. Future research needs to investigate the common underlying systemic disease processes.

Background Stroke is a common cause of death and a leading cause of disability and morbidity. Stroke risk assessment remains a challenge but circulating biomarkers may improve risk prediction. Controversial evidence is available on the predictive ability of troponin concentrations and the risk of stroke in the community. Furthermore, reports on the predictive value of troponin concentrations for different stroke subtypes (ischemic and hemorrhagic) are scarce. Methods High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hsTnI) concentrations were assessed in 82,881 individuals (median age 50.7 years, 49.7% men) free of stroke or myocardial infarction at baseline from nine prospective European community cohorts. Multiple imputations were used to handle missing data. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine relative risks, followed by measures of discrimination and reclassification using 10-fold cross-validation to control for over-optimism. Follow-up was based upon linkage with national hospitalization registries and causes of death registries. Results Over a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 3,033 individuals were diagnosed with incident non-fatal or fatal stroke (N=1,654 ischemic strokes, N=612 hemorrhagic strokes, N=767 indeterminate strokes). In multivariable regression models hsTnI concentrations were associated with overall stroke (hazard ratio (HR) per one standard deviation increase 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10–1.21), ischemic stroke (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.09–1.21) and hemorrhagic stroke (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01–1.21). Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical cardiovascular risk factors (C-indices 0.808, 0.840 and 0.735 for overall, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, respectively) increased the C-index significantly, but modestly. In individuals with an intermediate ten-year risk (5–20%) the net reclassification improvement for overall stroke was 0.039 (p=0.010). Conclusions Elevated hsTnI concentrations are associated with an increased risk of incident stroke in the community, irrespective of stroke subtype. Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical risk factors only modestly improved estimation of 10-year risk of stroke in the overall cohort, but might be of some value in individuals at an intermediate risk. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): The BiomarCaRE Project is funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no.HEALTH-F2-2011-278913. This project has received further funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 648131).