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A functional 10×10 reflectarray antenna is developed for millimeter-waves. It has a gain of approximately 10 dBi and a continuous steering range from −30 to 30∘ in the horizontal plane. In this paper, the entire design process is explained, beginning with the design and function of the antenna element and followed by considerations regarding positioning of the feed antenna. Steering and controlling of the beam are discussed. Finally, the antenna patterns for different steering angles were measured in an anechoic chamber. The design is scalable, built with commercial off-the-shelf components, and the array does not need active cooling.

We introduce a new tunable reflectarray element for an operation frequency of 26 GHz in the k-band. It is shown that a 340∘ continuous tunning range of the reflected wave can be accomplished by using an aperture-coupled patch antenna with only one single varactor diode. The simplified design and the small needed space make it usable for k-band reflectarrays with many elements. The functionality of the reflectarray element is explained and the crucial parts are analyzed. The approach to get a full phase shift is discussed in detail. A bias-T is developed to provide the control voltage to the varactor diode without interfering with the high frequency path. The high frequency path and the DC-path are decoupled by 39 dB using a bias-T. A commercial off-the-shelf varactor diode is selected and its functionality at 26 GHz is verified. Therefore, a test printed circuit board with through, reflect, line standards is developed to de-embed the varactor diode and to evaluate it with a vector network analyzer. The reflectarray is simulated in a unit cell with plane wave excitation and periodic boundary condition using the simulation software package CST Microwave Studio™.

An intercomparison in the framework of the German Calibration Service (Deutscher Kalibrierdienst – DKD) was carried out. Two different travelling standards were used to measure the 10 % to 90 % rise time of a pulse generator and the 10 % to 90 % rise time, −3 dB bandwidth and attenuation at 500 MHz of an oscilloscope. Fourteen participants performed the measurements from September 2015 until May 2016.

In an intercomparison organized within the framework of the German Calibration Service (Deutscher Kalibrierdienst – DKD), seven different calibration laboratories participated in the measurement of the antenna factor for three different antennas according to different standards. Between August 2017 and April 2018, measurements have been performed on a hybrid antenna, a logarithmic-periodic antenna and on an Open Ended Waveguide.

In this paper, we describe measurement results of the signal-in-space of very high frequency (VHF) omnidirectional range (VOR) facilities. In aviation VOR are used to display the current course of the aircraft in the cockpit. To understand the influence of wind turbines (WT) on the signal integrity of terrestrial navigation and radar signals, the signal content and its changes, respectively, must be investigated. So far, only numerical simulations have been carried out on the frequency-modulation (FM) part of the Doppler-VOR (DVOR) signal to estimate the influence of WT on DVOR. Up to now, the amplitude-modulated (AM) part of the DVOR was not assessed at all. In 2016, we presented an unmanned aerial system (UAS) as a carrier for state-of-the-art radio-frequency (RF) measurement instrumentation (Schrader et al., 2016a, c; Bredemeyer et al., 2016), to measure and to record the true signal-in-space (both FM and AM signal) during the flight. The signal-in-space (which refers to time-resolved signal content and field strength, respectively) is measured and sampled without loss of information and, furthermore, synchronously stored with time stamp and with precise position in space, where the measurements were taken.

Abstract The MPI‐ESM1.2 is the latest version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model and is the baseline for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and current seasonal and decadal climate predictions. This paper evaluates a coupled higher‐resolution version (MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR) in comparison with its lower‐resolved version (MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR). We focus on basic oceanic and atmospheric mean states and selected modes of variability, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The increase in atmospheric resolution in MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR reduces the biases of upper‐level zonal wind and atmospheric jet stream position in the northern extratropics. This results in a decrease of the storm track bias over the northern North Atlantic, for both winter and summer season. The blocking frequency over the European region is improved in summer, and North Atlantic Oscillation and related storm track variations improve in winter. Stable Atlantic meridional overturning circulations are found with magnitudes of ~16 Sv for MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR and ~20 Sv for MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR at 26°N. A strong sea surface temperature bias of ~5°C along with a too zonal North Atlantic current is present in both versions. The sea surface temperature bias in the eastern tropical Atlantic is reduced by ~1°C due to higher‐resolved orography in MPI‐ESM‐HR, and the region of the cold‐tongue bias is reduced in the tropical Pacific. MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR has a well‐balanced radiation budget and its climate sensitivity is explicitly tuned to 3 K. Although the obtained reductions in long‐standing biases are modest, the improvements in atmospheric dynamics make this model well suited for prediction and impact studies.

In this paper we discuss the results of an intercomparison for electric field strength measurements within the German Calibration Service (Deutscher Kalibrierdienst – DKD). The comparison has been carried out on the field strength value required to reach a display reading of 20 V m−1 of the field probes for frequencies between 100 MHz and 18 GHz. Five laboratories joined the intercomparison including the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), the German National Metrology Institute that keeps the primary standard for electric field strength. As measurement artefacts both a small 1-axis probe usually used as transfer sensor at PTB and a larger 3-axis commercial field probe have been used. While the results agree well for the small field probe and when the larger commercial 3-axis field probe is oriented in the direction of the magnetic field, larger deviations occur, when the larger 3-axis field probe is oriented into the direction of the Poynting vector of the calibration field.

In this paper we describe the design of an exposure setup used to study possible non-thermal effects due to the exposure of human hematopoietic stem cells to GSM, UMTS and LTE mobile communication signals. The experiments are performed under fully blinded conditions in a TEM waveguide located inside an incubator to achieve defined environmental conditions as required for the living cells. Chamber slides containing the cells in culture medium are placed on the septum of the waveguide. The environmental and exposure parameters such as signal power, temperatures, relative humidity and CO2 content of the surrounding atmosphere are monitored permanently during the exposure experiment. The power of the exposure signals required to achieve specific absorption rates of 0.5, 1, 2 and 4 W kg−1 are determined by numerical calculation of the field distribution inside the cell culture medium at 900 MHz (GSM), 1950 MHz (UMTS) and 2535 MHz (LTE). The dosimetry is verified both with scattering parameter measurements on the waveguide with and without containers filled with cell culture medium and with temperature measurements with non-metallic probes in separate heating experiments.

Field strength or signal-in-space (SIS) measurements have been performed by using manned helicopters, aircrafts or from ground level using extendable masts. With the availability of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) such as multicopters a new versatile platform for SIS measurements is deployable. Larger types show up to eight individually driven electric motors and controllers (therefore called octocopter). They provide the ability to fly along predefined traces, to hover at waypoints and to initiate other actions when those have been reached. They provide self-levelling and stabilisation and moreover, they may gear at a point of interest regardless of their actual position, e.g. during their flight around a tower. Their payload mainly depends on the platform size and allows integration of complex measurement equipment. Upgrading their navigation capabilities including state-of-the-art global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and ground station transmitter (real-time kinematic – RTK) enables precise localisation of the UAS. For operation in electromagnetic harsh environments a shielding can be considered and integrated into the concept. This paper describes concept and design of an octocopter and its instrumentation, along with applications in recent projects, in which we measure and validate terrestrial navigation systems applied in air traffic and the weather forecast services. Among those are instrumentation landing systems (ILS), VHF omnidirectional radio ranges (VOR), airport traffic and weather radars as well as military surveillance radars, and UHF wind profilers. Especially to investigate the possible interaction of VORs and radars with single wind turbines (WT) or wind power plants has become a major request of economy, military and politics. Here, UAS can be deployed to deliver measurement data investigating this interaction. Once developed and setup to a certain extent, UAS are easy and cost-efficient to operate. Nonetheless, due to their compact size, UAS will have rather low interaction with the electromagnetic field to be measured compared to the operation of manned helicopters.

In this paper we discuss the results of an intercomparison for free space antenna factor measurements performed within the German Calibration Service (DKD). Three different types of antennas covering the frequency range from 30 MHz to 26.5 GHz have been calibrated in five different laboratories using different methods and calibration sites to obtain the free space antenna factor. The results agree well within the uncertainties specified by the laboratories suggesting that different approaches and different measurement sites to obtain the free space antenna factor are well compatible.

We present a traceable calibration of a specially designed horizontally polarised reference antenna with an omnidirectional pattern in the E-plane for the frequency range between 105 MHz and 120 MHz. This antenna is used as a validation tool for absolute field strength measurements at the localizer transmitter of an instrument landing system (ILS) at airports and is carried by a helicopter. We investigate whether we can treat it as a dipole-like antenna in the calibration setup despite its disk-shape body. We also investigate the suitability of an anechoic chamber for antenna calibration though it was not designed for that purpose. The measurements are based on scattering parameters (S-parameters) which we apply in the 3-antenna-method (TAM or 3-AM) to obtain the antenna gain and the antenna factor, respectively. An uncertainty budget for the antenna gain calibration is derived. We also report on the first practical application of the calibrated reference antenna.

Field exposition experiments have been initiated by the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz – BfS) to examine genotoxic effects of THz radiation in vitro. Two different human skin cell types are exposed to continuous-wave radiation at six distinct frequencies between 100 GHz and 2.52 THz originating from different sources of THz radiation under defined environmental conditions. The cell containers are irradiated with free space power flux densities between 0.1 mW/cm2 and 2 mW/cm2 measured traceable to the SI units. For meaningful results, dosimetric calculations using the finite differences time-domain method have been performed in order to access the fields and consequently the specific absorption rate (SAR) in the cell layer.

In civil and military aviation, ground based navigation aids (NAVAIDS) are still crucial for flight guidance even though the acceptance of satellite based systems (GNSS) increases. Part of the calibration process for NAVAIDS (ILS, DME, VOR) is to perform a flight inspection according to specified methods as stated in a document (DOC8071, 2000) by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). One major task is to determine the coverage, or, in other words, the true signal-in-space field strength of a ground transmitter. This has always been a challenge to flight inspection up to now, since, especially in the L-band (DME, 1GHz), the antenna installed performance was known with an uncertainty of 10 dB or even more. In order to meet ICAO's required accuracy of ±3 dB it is necessary to have a precise 3-D antenna factor of the receiving antenna operating on the airborne platform including all losses and impedance mismatching. Introducing precise, effective antenna factors to flight inspection to achieve the required accuracy is new and not published in relevant papers yet. The authors try to establish a new balanced procedure between simulation and validation by airborne and ground measurements. This involves the interpretation of measured scattering parameters gained both on the ground and airborne in comparison with numerical results obtained by the multilevel fast multipole algorithm (MLFMA) accelerated method of moments (MoM) using a complex geometric model of the aircraft. First results will be presented in this paper.

We propose a new convenient material shielding effectiveness measurement method based on a skin-effect transmission line coupler. The method is somewhat similar to the arrangement with two coupled TEM cells known from literature. The transmission line coupler consists of a pair of identical transmission line 2-port devices. Each device contains a coaxial waveguide, with a circular inner conductor and an outer conductor having a square cross section. One side of the outer conductor is left completely open as a slot. The slot is surrounded by a large metal housing to contact the two halves. As a measure for the shielding effectiveness the coupling between the two devices is measured in terms of scattering parameters after the test material is brought between the two halves. The devices can be used in a range from low frequencies to a few GHz.

Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation are studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem process models. Six ecosystem models (JSBACH-HIMMELI, LPX-Bern, LPJ-GUESS, JULES, CLM4.5, and CLM5) are compared to multi-model means of ecosystem models and atmospheric inversions from the Global Carbon Project and upscaled eddy covariance flux results for their temperature and precipitation responses and seasonal cycles of the regional fluxes. Two models with contrasting response patterns, LPX-Bern and JSBACH-HIMMELI, are used as priors in atmospheric inversions with Carbon Tracker Europe–CH4 (CTE-CH4) in order to find out how the assimilation of atmospheric concentration data changes the flux estimates and how this alters the interpretation of the flux responses to temperature and precipitation. Inversion moves wetland emissions of both models towards co-limitation by temperature and precipitation. Between 2000 and 2018, periods of high temperature and/or high precipitation often resulted in increased emissions. However, the dry summer of 2018 did not result in increased emissions despite the high temperatures. The process models show strong temperature and strong precipitation responses for the region (51 %–91 % of the variance explained by both). The month with the highest emissions varies from May to September among the models. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled eddy covariance flux observations agree on the month of maximum emissions and are co-limited by temperature and precipitation. The setup of different emission components (peatland emissions, mineral land fluxes) has an important role in building up the response patterns. Considering the significant differences among the models, it is essential to pay more attention to the regional representation of wet and dry mineral soils and periodic flooding which contribute to the seasonality and magnitude of methane fluxes. The realistic representation of temperature dependence of the peat soil fluxes is also important. Furthermore, it is important to use process-based descriptions for both mineral and peat soil fluxes to simulate the flux responses to climate drivers.

Due to ongoing climate change, methane (CH4) emissions from vegetated wetlands are projected to increase during the 21st century, challenging climate mitigation efforts aimed at limiting global warming. However, despite reports of rising emission trends, a comprehensive evaluation and attribution of recent changes remains limited. Here we assessed global wetland CH4 emissions from 2000–2020 based on an ensemble of 16 process-based wetland models. Our results estimated global average wetland CH4 emissions at 158 ± 24 (mean ± 1σ) Tg CH4 yr−1 over a total annual average wetland area of 8.0 ± 2.0×106 km2 for the period 2010–2020, with an average increase of 6–7 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2010–2019 compared to the average for 2000–2009. The increases in the four latitudinal bands of 90–30° S, 30° S–30° N, 30–60° N, and 60–90° N were 0.1–0.2, 3.6–3.7, 1.8–2.4, and 0.6–0.8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively, over the 2 decades. The modeled CH4 sensitivities to temperature show reasonable consistency with eddy-covariance-based measurements from 34 sites. Rising temperature was the primary driver of the increase, while precipitation and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations played secondary roles with high levels of uncertainty. These modeled results suggest that climate change is driving increased wetland CH4 emissions and that direct and sustained measurements are needed to monitor developments.

During the early Holocene to mid-Holocene, about 11 500 to 5500 years ago, lakes expanded across the Sahel and Sahara in response to enhanced summer monsoon precipitation. To investigate the effect of these lakes on the West African summer monsoon, previous simulation studies prescribed mid-Holocene lakes from reconstructions. By prescribing mid-Holocene lakes, however, the terrestrial water balance is inconsistent with the size of the lakes. In order to close the terrestrial water cycle, we construct a dynamic endorheic lake (DEL) model and implement it into the atmosphere–land model ICON-JSBACH4. For the first time, this allows us to investigate the dynamic interaction between climate, lakes, and vegetation across northern Africa. Additionally, we investigate the effect of lake depth changes on mid-Holocene precipitation, a neglected aspect in previous simulation studies. A pre-industrial control simulation shows that the DEL model realistically simulates the lake extent across northern Africa. Only in the Ahnet and Chotts basins is the lake area slightly overestimated, which is likely related to the coarse resolution of the simulations. The mid-Holocene simulations reveal that both the lake expansion and the vegetation expansion cause a precipitation increase over northern Africa. The sum of these individual contributions to the precipitation is, however, larger than the combined effect that is generated when lake and vegetation dynamics interact. Thus, the lake–vegetation interaction causes a relative drying response across the entire Sahel. The main reason for this drying response is that the simulated vegetation expansion cools the land surface more strongly than the lake expansion, which is dominated by the expansion of Lake Chad. Accordingly, the surface temperature increases over the region of Lake Chad and causes local changes in the meridional surface-temperature gradient. These changes in the meridional surface-temperature gradient are associated with reduced inland moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic into the Sahel, which causes a drying response in the Sahel. An idealized mid-Holocene experiment shows that a similar drying response is induced when the depth of Lake Chad is decreased by about 1–5 m, without changing the horizontal lake area. By reducing the depth of Lake Chad, the heat storage capacity of the lake decreases, and the lake warms faster during the summer months. Thus, in the ICON-JSBACH4 model, the lake depth significantly influences the simulated surface temperature and the simulated meridional surface-temperature gradient between the simulated lakes and vegetation, thereby affecting mid-Holocene precipitation over northern Africa.

An increasing number of climate model simulations is becoming available for the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene. Assessing the simulations' reliability requires benchmarking against environmental proxy records. To date, no established method exists to compare these two data sources in space and time over a period with changing background conditions. Here, we develop a new algorithm to rank simulations according to their deviation from reconstructed magnitudes and temporal patterns of orbital and millennial-scale temperature variations. The use of proxy forward modeling allows for accounting for non-climatic processes that affect the temperature reconstructions. It further avoids the need to reconstruct gridded fields or regional mean temperature time series from sparse and uncertain proxy data. First, we test the reliability and robustness of our algorithm in idealized experiments with prescribed deglacial temperature histories. We quantify the influence of limited temporal resolution, chronological uncertainties, and non-climatic processes by constructing noisy pseudo-proxies. While model–data comparison results become less reliable with increasing uncertainties, we find that the algorithm discriminates well between simulations under realistic non-climatic noise levels. To obtain reliable and robust rankings, we advise spatial averaging of the results for individual proxy records. Second, we demonstrate our method by quantifying the deviations between an ensemble of transient deglacial simulations and a global compilation of sea surface temperature reconstructions. The ranking of the simulations differs substantially between the considered regions and timescales, which suggests that optimizing for agreement with the temporal patterns of a small set of proxies might be insufficient for capturing the spatial structure of the deglacial temperature variability. We attribute the diversity in the rankings to more regionally confined temperature variations in reconstructions than in simulations, which could be the result of uncertainties in boundary conditions, shortcomings in models, or regionally varying characteristics of reconstructions such as recording seasons and depths. Future work towards disentangling these potential reasons can leverage the flexible design of our algorithm and its demonstrated ability to identify varying levels of model–data agreement. Additionally, the algorithm can be applied to variables like oxygen isotopes and climate transitions such as the penultimate deglaciation and the last glacial inception.

Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 ∘C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Over the past 3 decades, inversions for ice sheet basal drag have become commonplace in glaciological modeling. Such inversions require regularization to prevent over-fitting and ensure that the structure they recover is a robust inference from the observations, confidence which is required if they are to be used to draw conclusions about processes and properties of the ice base. While L-curve analysis can be used to select the optimal regularization level, the treatment of L-curve analysis in glaciological inverse modeling has been highly variable. Building on the history of glaciological inverse modeling, we demonstrate general best practices for regularizing glaciological inverse problems, using a domain in the Filchner–Ronne catchment of Antarctica as our test bed. We show a step-by-step approach to cost function normalization and L-curve analysis. We explore the spatial and spectral characteristics of the solution as a function of regularization, and we test the sensitivity of L-curve analysis and regularization to model resolution, effective pressure, sliding nonlinearity, and the flow equation. We find that the optimal regularization level converges towards a finite non-zero limit in the continuous problem, associated with a best knowable basal drag field. Nonlinear sliding laws outperform linear sliding in our analysis, with both a lower total variance and a more sharply cornered L-curve. By contrast, geometry-based approximations for effective pressure degrade inversion performance when added to a sliding law, but an actual hydrology model may marginally improve performance in some cases. Our results with 3D inversions suggest that the additional model complexity may not be justified by the 2D nature of the surface velocity data. We conclude with recommendations for best practices in future glaciological inversions.

The subglacial hydrological system affects (i) the motion of ice sheets through sliding, (ii) the location of lakes at the ice margin, and (iii) the ocean circulation by freshwater discharge directly at the grounding line or (iv) via rivers flowing over land. For modeling this hydrology system, a previously developed porous-media concept called the confined–unconfined aquifer system (CUAS) is used. To allow for realistic simulations at the ice sheet scale, we developed CUAS-MPI, an MPI-parallel C/C++ implementation of CUAS (MPI: Message Passing Interface), which employs the Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation (PETSc) infrastructure for handling grids and equation systems. We validate the accuracy of the numerical results by comparing them with a set of analytical solutions to the model equations, which involve two types of boundary conditions. We then investigate the scaling behavior of CUAS-MPI and show that CUAS-MPI scales up to 3840 MPI processes running a realistic Greenland setup on the Lichtenberg HPC system. Our measurements also show that CUAS-MPI reaches a throughput comparable to that of ice sheet simulations, e.g., the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM). Lastly, we discuss opportunities for ice sheet modeling, explore future coupling possibilities of CUAS-MPI with other simulations, and consider throughput bottlenecks and limits of further scaling.

The Arctic is warming at an above-average rate, and small, shallow waterbodies such as ponds are vulnerable to this warming due to their low thermal inertia compared to larger lakes. While ponds are a relevant landscape-scale source of methane under the current climate, the response of pond methane emissions to warming is uncertain. We employ a new, process-based model for methane emissions from ponds (MeEP) to investigate the methane emission response of polygonal-tundra ponds in northeastern Siberia to warming. MeEP is the first dedicated model of pond methane emissions which differentiates between the three main pond types of the polygonal-tundra, ice-wedge, polygonal-center, and merged polygonal ponds and resolves the three main pathways of methane emissions – diffusion, ebullition, and plant-mediated transport. We perform idealized warming experiments, with increases in the mean annual temperature of 2.5, 5, and 7.5 ∘C on top of a historical simulation. The simulations reveal an approximately linear increase in emissions from ponds of 1.33 g CH4 yr−1 ∘C−1 m−2 in this temperature range. Under annual temperatures 5 ∘C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this emission increase is due to the additional substrate provided by the increased net productivity of the vascular plants. Furthermore, plant-mediated transport is the dominating pathway of methane emissions in all simulations. We conclude that vascular plants as a substrate source and efficient methane pathway should be included in future pan-Arctic assessments of pond methane emissions.

Atmospheric methane (CH4) has changed considerably in the time between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the preindustrial (PI) periods. We investigate these changes in transient experiments with an Earth system model capable of simulating the global methane cycle interactively, focusing on the rapid changes during the deglaciation, especially pronounced in the Bølling–Allerød (BA) and Younger Dryas (YD) periods. We consider all relevant natural sources and sinks of methane and examine the drivers of changes in methane emissions as well as in the atmospheric lifetime of methane. We find that the evolution of atmospheric methane is largely driven by emissions from tropical wetlands, while variations in the methane atmospheric lifetime are small but not negligible. Our model reproduces most changes in atmospheric methane very well, with the exception of the mid-Holocene decrease in methane, although the timing of ice-sheet meltwater fluxes needs to be adjusted slightly in order to exactly reproduce the variations in the BA and YD.

Abstract Cold‐season methane (CH4) emissions may be poorly constrained in wetland models. We examined cold‐season CH4 emissions simulated by 16 models participating in the Global Carbon Project model intercomparison and analyzed temporal and spatial patterns in simulation results using prescribed inundation data for 2000–2020. Estimated annual CH4 emissions from northern (>60°N) wetlands averaged 10.0 ± 5.5 Tg CH4 yr−1. While summer CH4 emissions were well simulated compared to in‐situ flux measurement observations, the models underestimated CH4 during September to May relative to annual total (27 ± 9%, compared to 45% in observations) and substantially in the months with subzero air temperatures (5 ± 5%, compared to 27% in observations). Because of winter warming, nevertheless, the contribution of cold‐season emissions was simulated to increase at 0.4 ± 0.8% decade−1. Different parameterizations of processes, for example, freezing–thawing and snow insulation, caused conspicuous variability among models, implying the necessity of model refinement.

Climate archives reveal alternating arid and humid conditions in North Africa during the last several million years. Most likely the dry phases resembled current hyper-arid landscapes, whereas the wet phases known as African humid periods (AHPs) sustained much more surface water and greater vegetated areas that “greened” large parts of the Sahara region. Previous analyses of sediment cores from the Mediterranean Sea showed the last five AHPs differed in strength, duration and rate of change. To understand the causes of such differences we perform transient simulations of the past 190 000 years with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. We analyse the amplitude and rate of change of the modelled AHP responses to changes in orbital parameters, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ice sheets. In agreement with estimates from Mediterranean Sea sapropels, we find the model predicts a threshold in orbital forcing for Sahara greening and occurrence of AHPs. Maximum rates of change in simulated vegetation extent at AHP onset and termination correlate strongly with the rate of change of the orbital forcing. As suggested by available data for the Holocene AHP, the onset of modelled AHPs usually happens faster than termination. A factor separation analysis confirms the dominant role of the orbital forcing in driving the amplitude of precipitation and vegetation extent for past AHPs. Forcing due to changes in GHGs and ice sheets is only of secondary importance, with a small contribution from synergies with the orbital forcing. Via the factor separation we detect that the threshold in orbital forcing for AHP onset varies with GHG levels. To explore the implication of our finding from the palaeoclimate simulations for the AHPs that might occur in a greenhouse-gas-induced warmer climate, we extend the palaeoclimate simulations into the future. For the next 100 000 years the variations in orbital forcing will be smaller than during the last 100 millennia, and the insolation threshold for the onset of late Quaternary AHPs will not be crossed. However, with higher GHG concentrations the predicted threshold drops considerably. Thereby, the occurrence of AHPs in upcoming millennia appears to crucially depend on future concentrations of GHGs.

Enhanced summer insolation over North Africa induced a monsoon precipitation increase during the mid-Holocene, about 6000 years ago, and led to a widespread expansion of lakes and wetlands in the present-day Sahara. This expansion of lakes and wetlands is documented in paleoenvironmental sediment records, but the spatially sparse and often discontinuous sediment records provide only a fragmentary picture. Previous simulation studies prescribed either a small lake and wetland extent from reconstructions or focused on documented mega-lakes only to investigate their effect on the mid-Holocene climate. In contrast to these studies, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes in response to a small-lake extent and a potential maximum lake and wetland extent. Our study shows that during the summer monsoon season, the African rain belt is shifted about 2 to 7∘ farther north in simulations with a maximum lake or wetland extent than in simulations with a small lake extent. This northward extent is caused by a stronger and prolonged monsoon rainfall season over North Africa which is associated with an increased monsoon precipitation over the southern Sahara and an increased precipitation from tropical plumes over the northwestern Sahara. Replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands causes an enhanced precipitation increase, which is likely due to the high surface roughness of the wetlands. A moisture budget analysis reveals that both lakes and wetlands cause a local precipitation increase not only by enhanced evaporation but also by a stronger inland moisture transport and local moisture recycling to the south of Lake Chad and the west Saharan lakes. Analysis of the dynamic response shows that lakes and wetlands cause a circulation response inverse to the one associated with the Saharan heat low. Depending on the latitudinal position of the lakes and wetlands, they predominantly cause a northward shift or a decay of the African Easterly Jet. These results indicate that the latitudinal position of the lakes and wetlands strongly affects the northward extension of the African summer monsoon.

Full-Stokes (FS) ice sheet models provide the most sophisticated formulation of ice sheet flow. However, their applicability is often limited due to the high computational demand and numerical challenges. To balance computational demand and accuracy, the so-called Blatter–Pattyn (BP) stress regime is frequently used. Here, we explore the dynamic consequences of using simplified approaches by solving FS and the BP stress regime applied to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. To ensure a consistent comparison, we use one single ice sheet model to run the simulations under identical numerical conditions. A sensitivity study to the horizontal grid resolution (from 12.8 to a resolution of 0.1 km) reveals that velocity differences between the FS and BP solution emerge below ∼ 1 km horizontal resolution and continuously increase with resolution. Over the majority of the modelling domain both models reveal similar surface velocity patterns. At the grounding line of the 79∘ North Glacier the simulations show considerable differences whereby the BP model overestimates ice discharge of up to 50 % compared to FS. A sensitivity study to the friction type reveals that differences are stronger for a power-law friction than a linear friction law. Model differences are attributed to topographic variability and the basal drag, in which neglected stress terms in BP become important.

The present study investigates the response of the high-latitude carbon cycle to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in idealized climate change scenarios. To this end we use an adapted version of JSBACH – the land surface component of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) – that accounts for the organic matter stored in the permafrost-affected soils of the high northern latitudes. The model is run under different climate scenarios that assume an increase in GHG concentrations, based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 and the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, which peaks in the years 2025, 2050, 2075 or 2100, respectively. The peaks are followed by a decrease in atmospheric GHGs that returns the concentrations to the levels at the beginning of the 21st century, reversing the imposed climate change. We show that the soil CO2 emissions exhibit an almost linear dependence on the global mean surface temperatures that are simulated for the different climate scenarios. Here, each degree of warming increases the fluxes by, very roughly, 50 % of their initial value, while each degree of cooling decreases them correspondingly. However, the linear dependence does not mean that the processes governing the soil CO2 emissions are fully reversible on short timescales but rather that two strongly hysteretic factors offset each other – namely the net primary productivity and the availability of formerly frozen soil organic matter. In contrast, the soil methane emissions show a less pronounced increase with rising temperatures, and they are consistently lower after the peak in the GHG concentrations than prior to it. Here, the net fluxes could even become negative, and we find that methane emissions will play only a minor role in the northern high-latitude contribution to global warming, even when considering the high global warming potential of the gas. Finally, we find that at a global mean temperature of roughly 1.75 K (±0.5 K) above pre-industrial levels the high-latitude ecosystem turns from a CO2 sink into a source of atmospheric carbon, with the net fluxes into the atmosphere increasing substantially with rising atmospheric GHG concentrations. This is very different from scenario simulations with the standard version of the MPI-ESM, in which the region continues to take up atmospheric CO2 throughout the entire 21st century, confirming that the omission of permafrost-related processes and the organic matter stored in the frozen soils leads to a fundamental misrepresentation of the carbon dynamics in the Arctic.