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Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

An investigation of the curing (polymerisation) rate of acrylamide was carried out using isothermal and non-isothermal DSC in order to estimate the time for complete conversion of monomer at ambient temperatures. The non-isothermal data were used to model the rate using integral isoconversional and incremental isoconversional kinetic methods. Applying the equations for integral isoconversional methods and extrapolating to ambient temperatures resulted in non-sensical conversion-time curves, where the time estimated decreased for increasing degree of conversion to be reached. This odd behaviour was attributed to the incorrectness of the integration where the kinetic parameters (e.g. The activation energy) are a function of conversion. The problem was addressed by applying incremental methods which provided more reasonable results as the integration is carried out over small conversion increments where the kinetic parameters are assumed to be constant. Estimates of the conversion were compared to isothermal measurements and, although isothermal DSC produced significant variability in the data, extrapolated estimates from non-isothermal kinetic analysis produced, at best, an upper boundary for the estimation of the time to reach a fixed degree of conversion. © 2014 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary.

Bio-plastics are made from renewable biomass sources. We focus on lignin and develop epoxy resins containing lignin derivatives. We describe the preparation and application of epoxy resin containing lignin as a matrix. Soda-lignin (SLG) is obtained from black liquor in a soda pulp process. First, we use a lignin manufacturing process in which a methanol extraction method enabled reduction in the molecular and hydroxyl equivalent weights of lignin and removal of SiO2 and cellulose. Second, we investigate the ratio of diglycidyl ether of bisphenol-A (DGEBA) and methanol extraction SLG (me-SLG). From the viewpoint of cross-linking density and dielectric properties, 100/84 phr in the DGEBA/me-SLG casting system is found to be preferable. Finally, we try to fabricate an insulating material made up of DGEBA/me-SLG for an aluminum-based printed circuit board, and it achieves standard values.

We studied the growth technique for the dislocation reduction in a-plane GaN grown by metal organic chemical vapour deposition (MOCVD) using AlInN buffer layer, high temperature atomic layer epitaxy, and trenched r-sapphire technique. By using these techniques, the crystal quality was much improved. We also fabricated blue light emitting diodes (LEDs) on a-plane GaN film over r-sapphire substrate and on a-plane bulk GaN substrate. The electroluminescence (EL) characteristics of the LED samples were examined, and we found that the EL near field pattern from homo-epitaxially grown a-GaN based LED was spatially uniform, although the pattern from the LED on r-sapphire substrate was not uniform. The output power at the wavelength of 430nm was 0.72mW at the 20mA injection current for the sample on a-plane bulk GaN. (© 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

Summary Objectives: Lifestyle has a major influence on the development and progression of atherosclerosis. Our motto for healthy habits is “give up one, reduce two, and increase three”. The one thing that is to be given up is smoking. The two things that are to be reduced are intake of food and alcohol. The three things that are to be increased are exercise, rest and enjoyable activities. We assessed correlation between these six-health habits and plaque score indicating degree of atherosclerosis in the carotid artery. Methods: Subjects were divided into unfavorable (practicing zero to three habits) and optimal (practicing four to six habits) healthy habits groups. Results: Plaque score was significantly higher in the unfavorable group (7.6 ± 5.8) than in the optimal group (4.9 ± 4.2) (P Conclusions: The healthy habits that significantly contributed to prevention of atherosclerosis were quitting smoking and increasing rest and enjoyable activities.

Objective Periosteum contains undifferentiated mesenchymal stem cells that have both chondrogenic and osteogenic potential, and has been used to repair articular cartilage defects. During this process, the role of growth factors that stimulate the periosteal mesenchymal cells toward chondrogenesis to regenerate articular cartilage and maintain its phenotype is not yet fully understood. In this study, we examined the effects of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) and transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), alone and in combination, on periosteal chondrogenesis using an in vitro organ culture model. Methods Periosteal explants from the medial proximal tibia of 2-month-old rabbits were cultured in agarose under serum free conditions for up to 6 weeks. After culture the explants were weighed, assayed for cartilage production via Safranin O staining and histomorphometry, assessed for proliferation via proliferative cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) immunostaining, and assessed for type II collagen mRNA expression via in situ hybridization. Results IGF-1 significantly increased chondrogenesis in a dose-dependent manner when administered continuously throughout the culture period. Continuous IGF-1, in combination with TGF-β1 for the first 2 days, further enhanced overall total cartilage growth. Immunohistochemistry for PCNA revealed that combining IGF-1 with TGF-β1 gave the strongest proliferative stimulus early during chondrogenesis. In situ hybridization for type II collagen showed that continuous IGF-1 maintained type II collagen mRNA expression throughout the cambium layer from 2 to 6 weeks. Conclusion The results of this study demonstrate that IGF-1 and TGF-β1 can act in combination to regulate proliferation and differentiation of periosteal mesenchymal cells during chondrogenesis. Copyright 2003 OsteoArthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

ALL OF THE LUNG allografts from Brown Norway (BN) rats are completely rejected and destroyed in Lewis (LEW) recipients rats by day 6 after transplantation. With cyclosporine (CyA) administration on the second and third days, however, all the allografts can be indefinitely accepted. In this rat lung transplantation model, long-term surviving lung allografts show late airway changes caused by chronic rejection. Namely, allografts sacrificed at 6 months after transplantation showed mucosal ulceration, granulation, and submucosal fibrosis in the large airways. On day 30 after transplantation, the allografts treated with CyA have perivascular and peribronchial cellular infiltration similar to that found on day 3 in the vascular phase of acute rejection. The infiltration found on day 3 progresses and terminates in complete destruction of allografts in acute rejection. With CyA treatment, however, the delayed infiltration in the accepted allografts gradually decreases after its peak on day 30, and then the allografts show late airway changes. We showed that the subset of infiltrating macrophages in the accepted allografts on day 30 were different from the subset in allografts undergoing acute rejection. ED2-positive macrophages, that is, activated macrophages, were very few in the accepted allografts. Macrophages have been found to be components among cellular infiltration in allografts undergoing acute and also chronic rejection. They produce several substances that damage blood vessels, increase cellular infiltration, and stimulate T cells locally. Among these substances, IL-1b and TNF-a are representative proinflammatory cytokines that have a variety of activities, such as metabolic, immunologic, and inflammatory ones. Macrophages, when activated, augment the ability to produce IL-1b and TNF-a. Recently, several reports have demonstrated the pathogenetic roles of IL-1b and TNF-a in the transplantation immunology. –13 To investigate whether IL-1b and TNF-a can be associated with the fact that allografts on day 3 and 30 that have similar histology are followed by entirely different results, semiquantitative analyses of IL-1b and TNF-a mRNA expressions in the rat lung grafts were performed by reverse transcription 5 polymerase chain reaction. MATERIALS AND METHODS Experimental Design

Oleic acid (OA) can produce a lung injury similar to the adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Elastase and superoxides are thought to have an effect in ARDS. However, the effect that elastase and superoxide have in OA lung injury is unclear. To examine their involvement in OA lung injury, we tested the effects of methoxysuccinyl-alanyl-alanyl-prolyl-valyl chloromethyl ketone (MAAPVCK), an elastase inhibitor, and N-acetyl-L-cysteine (NAC), an active oxygen scavenger, on the increase in pulmonary vascular permeability caused by OA. We also examined whether OA stimulated elastase and/or superoxide release from polymorphonuclear leukocytes (PMNs).Prospective trial.University laboratory.(1) Guinea pigs were anesthetized. MAAPVCK (2.5 mg/ kg) or NAC (150 mg/kg) was infused over OA (15 microl/kg) injection. Evans blue was used to measure vascular permeability. (2) PMNs were isolated from the blood of guinea pigs and rats. Elastase release was measured with MeO-Suc-Ala-Ala-Pro-Val-7-amino-4-methylcoumarin. Superoxide production was measured by the ferricytochrome c reduction method.OA caused pulmonary hemorrhage and an increase in vascular permeability. MAAPVCK and NAC significantly attenuated the increase in vascular permeability in distal bronchus and trachea, respectively. OA induced superoxide production from PMNs in guinea pigs, but elastase release from PMNs was not detected.These results suggest that elastase and superoxide are involved in OA lung injury.

This paper describes a design of microstrip rectangular disk quadrature directional couplers on the basis of a modified eigenfunction expansion method with consideration of frequency dependences of an effective width and an effective relative permittivity of a microstrip disk circuit. Using this approximate method, we can optimize the disk configuration of directional couplers in a reasonable computational time. The validity of the design method is examined by comparison with the numerical results by the FDTD method, Article, Microwave Conference Proceedings, 1997. APMC '97, 1997 Asia-Pacific

Extinction and Raman spectra of gas-evaporated carbon nanoparticles were studied. It was found from Raman spectroscopy that the gas-evaporated carbon nanoparticles consist of small sp2 carbon clusters and the sp2 clusters grow on thermal annealing without affecting the size of the particle itself. The as-deposited samples show an extinction peak at about 230 nm, which exhibits a red shift as the annealing temperature increases. Combining the results of Raman spectroscopy, we conclude that the extinction peak arises from the π-plasmon resonances in sp2 clusters and the resonant frequency decreases as the sp2 clusters grow.

The effect of murine rIL-4 on the development of herpesvirus encephalitis (HSE) in mice infected intranasally with herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) was investigated. The mortality rates of mice infected with a 0.5 LD50 dose of HSV-1 were greatly increased after the administration of rIL-4 at doses ranging from 0.01 to 1.0 U/mouse 2 h before and 2, 4 and 6 days after the infection. In contrast, survival rates of mice exposed to a 5 LD50 dose of HSV-1 were clearly increased when these mice were treated with anti-IL-4 mAb. Cervical lymph node (CLN) cells and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) cells from mice with HSE (HSE mice) produced IL-4 in their culture fluids when they were stimulated in vitro with HSV-1 Ag. Increased amounts of HSV-1 infection in mice resulted in the increased production of IL-4 in the culture fluids of local lymphocytes. However, significant amounts of IL-4 were not produced in serum specimens or in culture fluids of spleen cells from HSE mice. IL-4 production in culture fluids of CLN and CSF cells from HSE mice was clearly reduced after treatment of HSE mice with anti-IL-4 mAb. Furthermore, IL-4 production by CLN and CSF cells was greatly enhanced when the cells were prepared from HSE mice previously treated with rIL-4. The IL-4 was mainly produced from CD4+ T cells. These results demonstrate that small amounts of exogenous IL-4 increase the severity of HSE in HSV-1-infected mice through the increased production of IL-4 from local CD4+ T cells.

Low-frequency noise properties of all-thin-film superconducting point contacts have been investigated. Device characterization is also reported here. The quasi particle behavior is well explained by the Andreev reflection. The low-frequency noise spectral density scaled by frequency and normal resistance is studied as a function of junction (contact) resistance. >

Late airway changes are frequently observed in long-term surviving rat lung allografts. In this present study, we investigate this problem using the mixed lymphocyte reaction, graft-versus-host assay (popliteal lymph node assay), skin grafting from the donor strain to the lung allograft recipient, and histology to evaluate this problem. The results show that spleen cells from recipient rats with long-term surviving lung allografts possessed alloreactivity in mixed lymphocyte reaction against both donor and third-party ACI antigens. Suppressor cell activity was not detected in spleen cells from these recipient rats. The popliteal lymph node assay showed that the response to recipient spleen cells was detectable but weaker than that of naive spleen cells from the same strain. Mean survival time of skin grafts from the donor strain to long-term allograft survivors was significantly longer than that between donor and recipient strains. Chest roentgenograms revealed opacification of long-term surviving lung allografts at 2 to 3 wk after skin transplantation that was coincident with the rejection of the skin grafts, and histologic examination of the lung allografts revealed changes compatible with acute rejection. We conclude that alloreactivity can be demonstrated in rats with long-term surviving lung allografts and suggest that late airway changes in these lungs are immunologically mediated.

症例は59歳, 女性で胸部異常陰影を主訴とした。胸部X線所見では心陰影と重なる左下肺野に 65×53mm大の腫瘤陰影を認めた.胸部CTおよびMRIでは腫瘤陰影の横隔膜側に異常血管の走行を認めた.三次元CT血管造影にて下行大動脈より直接分岐し腫瘤の横隔膜面より辺縁を取り巻くように走行する異常動脈および還流静脈が明瞭に描出された.肺内肺分画症 (Pryce III型) の診断下, 分画肺切除を行なった.肺靱帯内を約6mrnの異常動脈が分画肺に向い走行し, これを根部にて切離後, 分画肺を肺門に向い切除し, 下肺静脈に流入する環流静脈を確認後切離した.これら異常血管の走行は三次元CT画像と一致し, 非侵襲的術前検査として腫瘤と周囲血管との立体的位置関係を把握する上で, 三次元CT血管造影は極めて有用であった.

The mechanism and stability of dimethylol urea (DMU) to polycondensation were investigated using thermogravimetric analysis coupled with mass spectroscopy (TG-MS) for evolved gas analysis and a non-isothermal model-free induction period kinetic analysis using three temperature functions; the Arrhenius function and two non-Arrhenian functions. The polycondensation was observed to occur through a two-step process of condensation followed by elimination of formaldehyde during structural rearrangement as has been reported in the literature. The rate equations for each temperature function were evaluated and extrapolated to room (23 °C) and refrigerator (4 °C) temperature to estimate the length of the induction period for the onset of polycondensation for storage life prediction. Based on experience, estimates of the length of the induction periods and, hence, storage life, were most realistically predicted by the non-Arrhenian temperature functions.

In order to identify the electronic structure of a one-dimensional crystal C 5 H 10 NH 2 PbI 3 , we investigate two-photon absorption and hydrostatic pressure effects on its optical spectra. In the two-photon excitation spectra of photoluminescence from the self-trapped exciton, prominent absorption peak is observed at 3.61 or 0.36 eV above the lowest exciton level, which is attributed to the two-photon absorption to the exciton state having relative motion of odd parity. From the energy difference, exciton binding energy is estimated to be 0.36 eV. As the hydrostatic pressure is applied, the PL peak shifts to the blue at a rate of 63 meV/GPa while the PL width increases. By fitting the spectra, the relevant phonon energy is found to increase from 12.7 meV at the ambient pressure to 14.6 meV at 1.9 GPa.

Setting: Atherosclerosis causes structural changes in artery walls that alter their physical properties. The stiffness parameteris one quantitative index of the elastic properties of large arteries.can be calculated from the measurements of blood pressure and arterial diameter. We examined whether quantitatively evaluates common carotid atherosclerosis. Methods: We measured the common carotid artery inner diameter and its pulsatile change with an ultrasonic instrument. The subjects were healthy persons, patients with atherosclesrosis risk factors, patients with myocardial infarctions, and patients with cerebral infarction. Results: Thein healthy persons aged 40-59 years was 11.2. β was 13.2 in patients with atherosclerosis risk factors, 13.4 in patients with myocardial infarction, and 13.5 in patients with cerebral infarctions. These data in each patient group were significantly higher than those in healthy subjects. Conclusions: This diagnostic method is inexpensive, noninvasive and easily performed.shows promise as a useful diagnostic indicator of atherosclerosis.

症例は40歳の男性.運動時呼吸困難および右下腹部痛を主訴に入院した.心エコー検査,心臓カテーテル検査よりEbstein奇形と診断し三尖弁切開術を施行した,術後経過は良好で心不全症状は改善し右下腹部痛も軽快した.入院後施行した小腸造影にて,回盲部に母指頭大の不整形のニッシェを認め潰瘍周辺は幅広い周堤を形成していた.Behcet病の症状がないことから単純性潰瘍と診断した.三尖弁切開術後1カ月して回盲部切除術を行った.自験例はEbstein奇形に単純性潰瘍を伴った1例であり両者の因果関係について若干の文献的考察を加えた.

For the strain (change in thickness) estimation method that we had been using, we have to estimate the displacements of many target points. When we use a correlation based method to estimate the displacements in the human body, accurate strain estimation is difficult. One of the reasons is the change in the center frequency and the amplitude of the RF echo due to the frequency dependent attenuation and the interference of reflected waves from scattering sources in the living body. In this paper, we propose a new strain estimation method that has advantage over the previous method and check the validity of the new method experimentally using an artery-mimicking phantom.

Pelvic lipomatosisの1例を経験した. 症例: 32歳, 女性. 主訴: 便秘. 肛門縁より10cm口側に狭窄部下端を触知し狭窄部より口側への直腸鏡の挿入は不可能であった. 粘膜面に不整はなく, 生検では正常の直腸粘膜であった. 膀胱鏡検査では異常を認めなかった. 注腸造影でRa, Rsに長さ約10cmの全周性の高度狭窄を認めたが明かな偏位は認めなかった. Computed tomographyとmagneticresonaunce imageでは腫大した子宮と左卵巣に低吸収域を認め, 直腸周囲に厚さ約2cmの低吸収域を認めた. 腹部エコーにて子宮筋腫と両側卵巣嚢胞を認めたが直腸狭窄と関係ないと判断した. 手術所見: 直腸, 子宮, 卵巣は強く癒着しており直腸低位前方切除, 単純子宮全摘, 両側付属器摘除術を行った. 病理所見: 直腸粘膜に著変なく直腸周囲には厚い脂肪が認められた. この脂肪は正常の脂肪組織であり, 悪性所見はなく線維化や炎症所見は乏しかった.

This paper proposes the performance improvement methods for the IPMSM position sensor-less vector control system. The stability of the position sensor-less control is influenced by the motor parameter error and dead time compensation error. Especially, it becomes problem in case of the extreme temperature variation and at low speed. The influence on the position estimation is analyzed for the proposed method which using an armature current flux adaptive observer. For performance improvement and simplification of control system, the offline parameter measurement of a stator resistance, permanent magnet flux, d,q-axis inductances, and dead-time compensation are proposed. And the on-line parameter error compensation method is applied to reduce the position error, which uses only the observer signal without any additional sensor or signal injection. In addition, the practical dead-time compensation method is proposed based on the experimental measurement. Experimental results of the test system using the proposed methods showed good performance.