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178 results on '"Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute ( SMHI )"'

1. EMODnet Chemistry Eutrophication and Acidity aggregated datasets v2018

Author: Department Of Bioscience Aarhus University, Hellenic Centre For Marine Research, Hellenic National Oceanographic Data Centre (HCMR/HNODC), IFREMER / IDM / SISMER-Scientific Information Systems For The SEA, Institute Of Marine Research-Norwegian Marine Data Centre (NMD), National Institute For Marine Research And Development \\'Grigore Antipa\\', OGS (Istituto Nazionale Di Oceanografia E Di Geofisica Sperimentale), National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC), and Swedish Meteorological And Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Subjects: Chemistry, Documentation, MSFD, European seas
Abstract: This document describes the 2018 release of the standardised, harmonised and validated data collections concerning eutrophication (nutrients, chlorophyll and oxygen) and acidity per sea region (Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, Arctic Region, Baltic Sea, North Sea and North East Atlantic Ocean). General Characteristics and quality assessment are provided by the regional leaders. The datasets are available in EMODnet Chemistry Data Products catalogue.
Published: 2018
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2. Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

Author: Aristeidis Koutroulis, Ioannis K. Tsanis, Abdulla Sakalli, Daniela Jacob, Chantal Donnelly, Robert Vautard, Andrea Damm, Lola Kotova, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Claas Teichmann, Manolis Grillakis, Stefan Sobolowski, Climate Service Center, Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Technical Universtiy of Crete Laboratory of Water Resources Management and Coastal Engineering, Technical University of Crete Laboratory of Water Resources Management and Coastal Engineering, Institute for Plant Ecology, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, Iskenderun Technical University, Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), European Project: 282746,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2011,IMPACT2C(2011), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] ( GERICS ), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht ( GKSS ), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research ( BCCR ), University of Bergen ( UIB ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute ( SMHI ), and Justus-Liebig-University
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, +1.5oC and +2oC global warming, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, Climate Change, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Climate Change Impacts, Effects of global warming, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 11. Sustainability, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), IMPACT2C project, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Hydropower, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, WIMEK, business.industry, Global warming, 020801 environmental engineering, Europe, Geography, 13. Climate action, Scale (social sciences), Food processing, Water Systems and Global Change, business, Tourism
Abstract: Summarization: The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long‐term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross‐sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan‐European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross‐sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability. Presented on
Published: 2018
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3. Spatial distribution of precipitation annual cycles over South Africa in 10 CORDEX regional climate model present-day simulations

Author: Alice Favre, Alessandro Dosio, Hans-Juergen Panitz, Benjamin Pohl, Nathalie Philippon, Grigori Nikulin, Ruth Cerezo-Mota, Christopher Lennard, Bruce Hewitson, Evangelia-Anna Kalognomou, Biogéosciences [UMR 6282] [Dijon] (BGS), Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG), University of Cape Town, Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering [Thessaloniki] (LHTEE), Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Laboratorio de Ingenería y Procesos Costeros, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Biogéosciences [Dijon] ( BGS ), Université de Bourgogne ( UB ) -AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Climate System Analysis Group ( CSAG ), Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering, Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute ( SMHI ), JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability ( IES ), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie ( KIT ), and Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México ( UNAM )
Subjects: Wet season, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, CORDEX-Africa, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Annual cycle of precipitation, 02 engineering and technology, Spatial distribution, 01 natural sciences, Regional climate model, medicine, Precipitation, Evaluation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Orography, Seasonality, medicine.disease, 020801 environmental engineering, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Environmental science, Common spatial pattern, Climate model, [ SDU.STU.CL ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Downscaling
Abstract: 20 pages; International audience; This study presents an evaluation of the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-Africa to reproduce the present-day spatial distribution of annual cycles of precipitation over the South African region and its borders. As found in previous studies, annual mean precipitation is quasi-systematically overestimated by the RCMs over a large part of southern Africa south of about 20°S and more strongly over South Africa. The spatial analysis of precipitation over the studied region shows that in most models the distribution of biases appears to be linked to orography. Wet biases are quasi-systematic in regions with higher elevation with inversely neutral to dry biases particularly in the coastal fringes. This spatial pattern of biases is particularly obvious during summer and specifically at the beginning of the rainy season (November and December) when the wet biases are found to be the strongest across all models. Applying a k-means algorithm, a classification of annual cycles is performed using observed precipitation data, and is compared with those derived from modeled data. It is found that the in-homogeneity of the spatial and temporal distribution of biases tends to impact the modeled seasonality of precipitation. Generally, the pattern of rainfall seasonality in the ensemble mean of the 10 RCMs tends to be shifted to the southwest. This spatial shift is mainly linked to a strong overestimation of convective precipitation at the beginning of the rainy season over the plateau inducing an early annual peak and to an underestimation of stratiform rainfall in winter and spring over southwestern South Africa.
Published: 2016
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4. Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions: case studies for Paris and Stockholm

Author: Myrto Valari, Magnuz Engardt, Robert Vautard, Gwendoline Lacressonnière, Konstantinos Markakis, Camilla Andersson, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), UN-HABITAT, and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, Ozone, Meteorology, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Health impact, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Chemistry, chemistry.chemical_compound, 11. Sustainability, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Air quality index, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Pollutant, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global warming, Miljövetenskap, lcsh:QC1-999, chemistry, lcsh:QD1-999, Homogeneous, 13. Climate action, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Environmental science, Urban scale, lcsh:Physics, Environmental Sciences
Abstract: International audience; Ozone, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations over Paris, France and Stockholm, Sweden were modeled at 4 and 1 \unit{km} horizontal resolutions respectively for the present and 2050 periods employing decade-long simulations. We account for large-scale global climate change (RCP-4.5) and fine resolution bottom-up emission projections developed by local experts and quantify their impact on future pollutant concentrations. Moreover, we identify biases related to the implementation of regional scale emission projections over the study areas by comparing modeled pollutant concentrations between the fine and coarse scale simulations. We show that over urban areas with major regional contribution (e.g., the city of Stockholm) the bias due to coarse emission inventory may be significant and lead to policy misclassification. Our results stress the need to better understand the mechanism of bias propagation across the modeling scales in order to design more successful local-scale strategies. We find that the impact of climate change is spatially homogeneous in both regions, implying strong regional influence. The climate benefit for ozone (daily average and maximum) is up to -5 % for Paris and -2 % for Stockholm city. The joined climate benefit on PM2.5 and PM10 in Paris is between -10 and -5 % while for Stockholm we observe mixed trends up to 3 % depending on season and size class. In Stockholm, emission mitigation leads to concentration reductions up to 15 % for daily average and maximum ozone and 20 % for PM and through a sensitivity analysis we show that this response is entirely due to changes in emissions at the regional scale. On the contrary, over the city of Paris (VOC-limited photochemical regime), local mitigation of NOx emissions increases future ozone concentrations due to ozone titration inhibition. This competing trend between the respective roles of emission and climate change, results in an increase in 2050 daily average ozone by 2.5 % in Paris. Climate and not emission change appears to be the most influential factor for maximum ozone concentration over the city of Paris, which may be particularly interesting in a health impact perspective.
Published: 2023
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5. Land-atmosphere coupling in EURO-CORDEX evaluation experiments

Author: Knist , Sebastian, Goergen , Klaus, Buonomo , Erasmo, Christensen , Ole Bøssing, Colette , Augustin, Cardoso , Rita M., Fealy , Rowan, Fernández , Jesús, García-Díez , Markel, Jacob , Daniela, Kartsios , Stergios, Katragkou , Eleni, Keuler , Klaus, Mayer , Stephanie, Van Meijgaard , Erik, Nikulin , Grigory, Soares , Pedro M. M., Sobolowski , Stefan, Szepszo , Gabriella, Teichmann , Claas, Vautard , Robert, Warrach-Sagi , Kirsten, Wulfmeyer , Volker, Simmer , Clemens, Centre de recherche public Gabriel Lippmann, Centre de Recherche Public Gabriel Lippmann, Met Office Hadley Centre ( MOHC ), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute ( DMI ), Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques ( INERIS ), Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Rural Economy and Development Programme, Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority, Spanish National Institute for Agriculture and Food Research and Technology ( INIA ), Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria, Instituto de Física de Cantabria, Macquarie Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, N Ryde, NSW 2009, Australia, Department of Meteorology and Climatology [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Brandenburg University of Technology, ARVALIS - Institut du Végétal, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute ( SMHI ), Centro de Computação Gráfica ( CCG ), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research ( BCCR ), University of Bergen ( UIB ), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] ( GERICS ), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht ( GKSS ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Institut für Physik und Meteorologie [Stuttgart] ( IPM ), Universität Hohenheim, Meteorological Institute University Bonn, Centre de Recherche Public - Gabriel Lippmann (LUXEMBOURG), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Texas A&M University System, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria = National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), ARVALIS - Institut du végétal [Paris], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Centro de Computação Gráfica (CCG), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut für Physik und Meteorologie [Stuttgart] (IPM), Meteorological Institute [Bonn], Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Brandenburgische Technische Universität = Brandenburg Technical University (BTU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, ddc:550, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: International audience; Interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere play a fundamental role in the weather and climate system. Here we present a comparison of summertime land-atmosphere coupling strength found in a subset of the ERA-Interim-driven European domain Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) model ensemble (1989-2008). Most of the regional climate models (RCMs) reproduce the overall soil moisture interannual variability, spatial patterns, and annual cycles of surface exchange fluxes for the different European climate zones suggested by the observational Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) and FLUXNET data sets. However, some RCMs differ substantially from FLUXNET observations for some regions. The coupling strength is quantified by the correlation between the surface sensible and the latent heat flux, and by the correlation between the latent heat flux and 2 m temperature. The first correlation is compared to its estimate from the few available long-term European high-quality FLUXNET observations, and the latter to results from gridded GLEAM data. The RCM simulations agree with both observational datasets in the large-scale pattern characterized by strong coupling in southern Europe and weak coupling in northern Europe. However, in the transition zone from strong to weak coupling covering large parts of central Europe many of the RCMs tend to overestimate the coupling strength in comparison to both FLUXNET and GLEAM. The RCM ensemble spread is caused primarily by the different land surface models applied, and by the model-specific weather conditions resulting from different atmospheric parameterizations.
Published: 2016
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6. Precipitation frequency in Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX ensembles from 0.44° to convection-permitting resolution: impact of model resolution and convection representation

Author: Minh Truong Ha, S. Bastin, P. Drobinski, L. Fita, J. Polcher, O. Bock, M. Chiriaco, D. Belušić, C. Caillaud, A. Dobler, J. Fernandez, K. Goergen, Ø. Hodnebrog, S. Kartsios, E. Katragkou, A. Lavin-Gullon, T. Lorenz, J. Milovac, H.-J. Panitz, S. Sobolowski, H. Truhetz, K. Warrach-Sagi, V. Wulfmeyer, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), SPACE - LATMOS, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET)-Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales [Buenos Aires] (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA), Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP (UMR_7154)), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Department of Geophysics [Zagreb], Faculty of Science [Zagreb], University of Zagreb-University of Zagreb, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), Universidad de Cantabria [Santander]-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Institute of Bio- and Geosciences [Jülich] (IBG), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Juliers, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Department of Meteorology and Climatology [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Institute of Physics and Meteorology [Stuttgart] (IPM), and University of Hohenheim
Subjects: Earth sciences, Atmospheric Science, Precipitation triggering, Convection-permitting models, Convection processes, Integrated water vapor, ddc:550, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology
Abstract: Recent studies using convection-permitting (CP) climate simulations have demonstrated a step-change in the representation of heavy rainfall and rainfall characteristics (frequency-intensity) compared to coarser resolution Global and Regional Climate models. The goal of this study is to better understand what explains the weaker frequency of precipitation in the CP ensemble by assessing the triggering process of precipitation in the different ensembles of regional climate simulations available over Europe. We focus on the statistical relationship between tropospheric temperature, humidity and precipitation to understand how the frequency of precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean is impacted by model resolution and the representation of convection (parameterized vs. explicit). We employ a multi-model data-set with three different resolutions (0.44°, 0.11° and 0.0275°) produced in the context of the MED-CORDEX, EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study "Convective Phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean" (FPSCONV). The multi-variate approach is applied to all model ensembles, and to several surface stations where the integrated water vapor (IWV) is derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. The results show that all model ensembles capture the temperature dependence of the critical value of IWV (IWVcv), above which an increase in precipitation frequency occurs, but the differences between the models in terms of the value of IWVcv, and the probability of its being exceeded, can be large at higher temperatures. The lower frequency of precipitation in convection-permitting simulations is not only explained by higher temperatures but also by a higher IWVcv necessary to trigger precipitation at similar temperatures, and a lower probability to exceed this critical value. The spread between models in simulating IWVcv and the probability of exceeding IWVcv is reduced over land in the ensemble of models with explicit convection, especially at high temperatures, when the convective fraction of total precipitation becomes more important and the influence of the representation of entrainment in models thus becomes more important. Over lowlands, both model resolution and convection representation affect precipitation triggering while over mountainous areas, resolution has the highest impact due to orography-induced triggering processes. Over the sea, since lifting is produced by large-scale convergence, the probability to exceed IWVcv does not depend on temperature, and the model resolution does not have a clear impact on the results.
Published: 2023
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7. A diagnostic evaluation of precipitation in CORDEX models over Southern Africa

Author: Grigory Nikulin, Bruce Hewitson, Alice Favre, Christopher Lennard, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Michael Kent, Mxolisi Shongwe, Alessandro Dosio, Matthias Büchner, Izidine Pinto, Evangelia-Anna Kalognomou, University of Cape Town, Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, South African Weather Service ( SAWS ), Biogéosciences [Dijon] ( BGS ), Université de Bourgogne ( UB ) -AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability ( IES ), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute ( SMHI ), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie ( KIT ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Research supported by the Global Change System for Analysis, Research, and Training (START) in partnership with the University of Cape Town's Climate Systems Analysis Group, the World Climate Research Program, the Climate and Development Knowledge Network, the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, and the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7, 2012-2013) under Grant Agreement 316167., Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering [Thessaloniki] (LHTEE), South African Weather Service (SAWS), Biogéosciences [UMR 6282] [Dijon] (BGS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement, JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Subjects: Climatology, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Ensemble average, 0207 environmental engineering, Regional models, Magnitude (mathematics), 02 engineering and technology, Diagnostic evaluation, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Climate prediction, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Environmental science, Climate model, Precipitation, [ SDU.STU.CL ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 020701 environmental engineering, Climate variability, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Downscaling
Abstract: 30 pages; International audience; The authors evaluate the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate precipitation over Southern Africa within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework. An ensemble of 10 regional climate simulations and the ensemble average is analyzed to evaluate the models' ability to reproduce seasonal and interannual regional climatic features over regions of the subcontinent. All the RCMs use a similar domain, have a spatial resolution of ;50 km, and are driven by the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim; 1989-2008). Results are compared against a number of observational datasets. In general, the spatial and temporal nature of rainfall over the region is captured by all RCMs, although individual models exhibit wet or dry biases over particular regions of the domain. Models generally produce lower seasonal variability of precipitation compared to observations and the magnitude of the variability varies in space and time. Model biases are related to model setup, simulated circulation anomalies, and moisture transport. The multimodel ensemble mean generally outperforms individual models, with bias magnitudes similar to differences across the observational datasets. In the northern parts of the domain, some of the RCMs and the ensemble average improve the precipitation climate compared to that of ERA-Interim. The models are generally able to capture the dry (wet) precipitation anomaly associated with El Nño (La Niña) events across the region. Based on this analysis, the authors suggest that the present set of RCMs can be used to provide useful information on climate projections of rainfall over Southern Africa.
Published: 2013
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8. Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies

Author: Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, Jens Christian Refsgaard, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), University of Eastern Finland, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Universidad de Granada = University of Granada (UGR), European Environmental Agency (EEA), Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Andalusian Institute of Earth Sciences (IACT), Spanish National Research Council [Madrid] (CSIC), University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), RiverLy - Fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes (RiverLy), Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica e Ambientale [Genova] (DICCA), Università degli studi di Genova = University of Genoa (UniGe), Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages (UMR G-EAU), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-AgroParisTech-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), and European Project: 690462,H2020,H2020-SC5-2015-one-stage,ERA4CS(2016)
Subjects: ROBUSTNESS, PREDICTION, PROJECTIONS, FLOW, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, WATER, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, UNCERTAINTY, EURO-CORDEX, JUDGMENT, SENSITIVITY, ADAPTATION, General Environmental Science
Abstract: Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties in climate impact studies. Among such methods, model weighting by expert elicitation is a practical way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for specific real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of improbable models in the results and easing the decisionmaking process. In this study both climate and hydrological models are analysed, and the result of a research experiment is presented using model weighting with the participation of six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts. For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori selected from a larger EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – European Domain) ensemble of climate models, and three different hydrological models are chosen for each of the three European river basins. The model weighting is based on qualitative evaluation by the experts for each of the selected models based on a training material that describes the overall model structure and literature about climate models and the performance of hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process follows a three-stage approach, with two individual rounds of elicitation of probabilities and a final group consensus, where the experts are separated into two different community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the study, most climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of ensemble members, whereas hydrological-impact modellers in general are more open for assigning weights to different models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance and model structure. Climate experts are more open to exclude models, if obviously flawed, than to put weights on selected models in a relatively small ensemble. The study shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient way to assign weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate model ensemble, comprising seven models, the elicitation in the format of this study could only re-establish a uniform weight between climate models., European Commission European Commission Joint Research Centre 690462
Published: 2022
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9. Assessing the state of marine biodiversity in the Northeast Atlantic

Author: A. McQuatters-Gollop, L. Guérin, N.L. Arroyo, A. Aubert, L.F. Artigas, J. Bedford, E. Corcoran, V. Dierschke, S.A.M. Elliott, S.C.V. Geelhoed, A. Gilles, J.M. González-Irusta, J. Haelters, M. Johansen, F. Le Loc'h, C.P. Lynam, N. Niquil, B. Meakins, I. Mitchell, B. Padegimas, R. Pesch, I. Preciado, I. Rombouts, G. Safi, P. Schmitt, U. Schückel, A. Serrano, P. Stebbing, A. De la Torriente, C. Vina-Herbon, Marine Conservation Research (MCR) [UK], University of Plymouth, Station marine Dinard, Centre De Recherche et d'Enseignement sur les Systèmes Côtiers (CRESCO), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Patrimoine naturel (PatriNat), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Office français de la biodiversité (OFB), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Spain] (CSIC), Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Nord]), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) World Conservation Monitoring Center (WCMC) (UNEP WCMC), OSPAR, Dynamique et durabilité des écosystèmes : de la source à l’océan (DECOD), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Wageningen Marine Research [The Netherlands], University of Veterinary Medicine [Hannover], Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (RBINS), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Environnement Marin (LEMAR) (LEMAR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (IUEM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science [Lowestoft] (CEFAS), Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques (BOREA), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA), Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC), Jade University of Applied Sciences, and The Schleswig-Holstein Agency for Coastal Defence [Tönning, Allemagne]
Subjects: fish, Ecology, Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, Business Manager projecten Midden-Noord, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Food webs, conservation, General Decision Sciences, Anthropogenic pressures, Holistic assessment, access, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Indicators, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Medio Marino, Business Manager projects Mid-North, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Ecosystem approach, biodiversity
Abstract: The Northeast Atlantic, a highly productive maritime area, has been exposed to a wide range of direct human pressures, such as fishing, shipping, coastal development, pollution, and non-indigenous species (NIS) introductions, in addition to anthropogenically-driven global climate change. Nonetheless, this regional sea supports a high diversity of species and habitats, whose functioning provides a variety of ecosystem services, essential for human welfare. In 2017, OSPAR, the Northeast Atlantic Regional Seas Commission, delivered an assessment of marine biodiversity for the Northeast Atlantic. This assessment examined biodiversity indicators separately to identify changes in Northeast Atlantic biodiversity, but stopped short of determining the status of biodiversity for many species and habitats. Here, we expand on this work and for the first time, a semi-quantitative approach is applied to evaluate holistically the state of Northeast Atlantic marine biodiversity across marine food webs, from plankton to top predators, via fish, pelagic and benthic habitats, including xeno-biodiversity (i.e. NIS). Our analysis reveals widespread degradation in marine ecosystems and biodiversity, particularly for marine birds and coastal bottlenose dolphins, as well as for benthic habitats and fish in some regions. The poor biodiversity status of these ecosystem components is likely the result of cumulative effects of human activities, such as habitat destruction or disturbance, overexploitation, eutrophication, the introduction of NIS, and climate change. Bright spots are also revealed, such as recent signs of recovery in some fish and marine bird communities and recovery in harbour and grey seal populations and the condition of coastal benthic communities in some regions. The status of many indicators across all ecosystem components, but particularly for the novel pelagic habitats, food webs and NIS indicators, however, remains uncertain due to gaps in data, unclear pressure-state relationships, and the non-linear influence of some pressures on biodiversity indicators. Improving monitoring and data access and increasing understanding of pressure-state relationships, including those that are non-linear, is therefore a priority for enabling future assessments, as is consistent and stable resourcing for expert involvement., SI
Published: 2022
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10. An end-user-friendly hydrological Web Service for hydrograph prediction in ungauged basins

Author: Alban de Lavenne, Christophe Cudennec, Josette Launay, Hervé Squividant, Donatien Dallery, Sol Agro et hydrosystème Spatialisation (SAS), AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), and Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Subjects: Computer science, 0208 environmental biotechnology, online modelling, Transposition (telecommunications), Hydrograph, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, 02 engineering and technology, prediction in ungauged basins (PUB), computer.software_genre, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, discharge series, hydrological service, [INFO]Computer Science [cs], web processing service, Water Science and Technology, End user, UPH #21, 6. Clean water, 020801 environmental engineering, global framework for climate services (GFCS), open geospatial consortium (OGC®), [SDE]Environmental Sciences, unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH), Web Processing Service, Data mining, Deconvolution, Web service, computer, geographic locations
Abstract: International audience; A consolidated geomorphology-based approach for discharge prediction in ungauged basins (PUB) through deconvolution of discharge signals from gauged donor catchments, their transposition and their convolution towards target outlets, has been made available online to end users through a Web Processing Service (WPS) for the synoptic peninsular region of Brittany, France. In the spirit of hydrological services, the SIMFEN WPS allows anyone to execute the hydrological modelling package transfR online through: (1) Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC®) interoperability standards; (2) collection and use of public hydrometric data; (3) connection to the pre-existing MNTSurf WPS for geomorphometric analysis; (4) visualization using a collaboratively developed Mviewer; and (5) innovative WPS workflows. The ability to model discharge series at any ungauged outlet of the synoptic region is offered to specialists of other disciplines, non-modeller water practitioners and interested citizens to support interdisciplinarity, water monitoring and management, and related science-society-policy debates and actions.
Published: 2020
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11. Consistency of Satellite Climate Data Records for Earth System Monitoring

Author: Emilio Chuvieco, Michael Buchwitz, Thomas Popp, Victoria Bennett, Ulrika Willén, Benoit Meyssignac, Stefan G. H. Simis, Frank Paul, Wouter Dorigo, Shubha Sathyendranath, Philippe Ciais, Shaun Quegan, Rainer Hollmann, Christopher J. Merchant, Annett Bartsch, Carsten Brockmann, Thomas Lavergne, Tracy Scanlon, Fabrice Ardhuin, Ana Bastos, Richard G. Jones, Michaela I. Hegglin, Darren Ghent, Marc Schröder, Jacqueline Boutin, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), University of Reading (UOR), Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD), Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), NERC National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC), Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Institute of Environmental Physics [Bremen] (IUP), University of Bremen, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation [Wien], Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geography [Zürich], Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich (UZH), School of Mathematics and Statistics [Sheffield] (SoMaS), University of Sheffield [Sheffield], Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Zurich, and Popp, Thomas
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computer science, media_common.quotation_subject, Climate change, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, computer.software_genre, 01 natural sciences, Task (project management), Consistency (database systems), Climate records, 1902 Atmospheric Science, 910 Geography & travel, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Remote sensing, Satellite observations, Metadata, Interdependence, Earth system science, 10122 Institute of Geography, 13. Climate action, Key (cryptography), Satellite, Data mining, Atmosphäre, computer
Abstract: Climate data records (CDRs) of essential climate variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) derived from satellite instruments help to characterize the main components of the Earth system, to identify the state and evolution of its processes, and to constrain the budgets of key cycles of water, carbon, and energy. The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) of the European Space Agency (ESA) coordinates the derivation of CDRs for 21 GCOS ECVs. The combined use of multiple ECVs for Earth system science applications requires consistency between and across their respective CDRs. As a comprehensive definition for multi-ECV consistency is missing so far, this study proposes defining consistency on three levels: 1) consistency in format and metadata to facilitate their synergetic use (technical level); 2) consistency in assumptions and auxiliary datasets to minimize incompatibilities among datasets (retrieval level); and 3) consistency between combined or multiple CDRs within their estimated uncertainties or physical constraints (scientific level). Analyzing consistency between CDRs of multiple quantities is a challenging task and requires coordination between different observational communities, which is facilitated by the CCI program. The interdependencies of the satellite-based CDRs derived within the CCI program are analyzed to identify where consistency considerations are most important. The study also summarizes measures taken in CCI to ensure consistency on the technical level, and develops a concept for assessing consistency on the retrieval and scientific levels in the light of underlying physical knowledge. Finally, this study presents the current status of consistency between the CCI CDRs and future efforts needed to further improve it.
Published: 2020
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12. The Opposing Effects of Reforestation and Afforestation on the Diurnal Temperature Cycle at the Surface and in the Lowest Atmospheric Model Level in the European Summer

Author: Susanna Strada, Rita M. Cardoso, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Giannis Sofiadis, Edouard Davin, Eleni Katragkou, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, Gustav Strandberg, Pedro M. M. Soares, Merja Tölle, Diana Rechid, Lisa Jach, Peter Hoffmann, Marcus Breil, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Climate Services Center (CSC), Hamburg, Germany, Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Meteorology and Climatology [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Instituto Dom Luiz, Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), Institute of Physics and Meteorology [Stuttgart] (IPM), University of Hohenheim, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Department of Geography, Justus-Liebig- University, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), and Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen = Justus Liebig University (JLU)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, Climate Research, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Regional models, Atmospheric model, 01 natural sciences, Klimatforskning, 03 medical and health sciences, Afforestation, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, Land use, Diurnal temperature variation, Reforestation, 15. Life on land, Europe, Surface temperature, 13. Climate action, Vegetation-atmosphere interactions, Climatology, Environmental science, Land surface model
Abstract: The biophysical effects of reforestation and afforestation (herein jointly called re/afforestation) on the diurnal temperature cycle in European summer are investigated by analyzing a regional climate model (RCM) ensemble, established within the Land Use and Climate Across Scales Flagship Pilot Study (LUCAS FPS). With this RCM ensemble, two idealized experiments are performed for Europe, one with a continent with maximized forest cover, and one in which all forests are turned into grassland. First, an in-depth analysis of one ensemble member (“CCLM-VEG3D”) is carried out, to reveal the complex process chain caused by such land use changes (LUCs). From these findings, the whole ensemble is analyzed and principal biophysical effects of re/afforestation are derived. Results show that the diurnal temperature range is reduced at the surface (top of the vegetation) with re/afforestation. Most RCMs simulate colder surface temperatures Tsurf during the day and warmer Tsurf during the night. Thus, for the first time, the principal temperature interrelations found in observation-based studies in the midlatitudes could be reproduced within a model intercomparison study. On the contrary, the diurnal temperature range in the lowest atmospheric model level (Tair) is increased with re/afforestation. This opposing temperature response is mainly caused by the higher surface roughness of forest, enhancing the turbulent heat exchange. Furthermore, these opposing temperature responses demonstrate that the use of the diagnostic 2-m temperature (weighted interpolation between Tsurf and Tair) has a limited potential to assess the effects of re/afforestation. Thus, studies about the biophysical impacts of LUCs should investigate the whole near-surface temperature profile.
Published: 2020
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13. Quantifying multi-year hydrological memory with Catchment Forgetting Curves

Author: Alban de Lavenne, Vazken Andréassian, Louise Crochemore, Göran Lindström, Berit Arheimer, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), RiverLy - Fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes (RiverLy), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), and Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)
Subjects: Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology
Abstract: A climatic anomaly can potentially affect the hydrological behaviour of a catchment for several years. This article presents a new approach to quantifying this multi-year hydrological memory, using exclusively streamflow and climate data. Rather than providing a single value of catchment memory, we aim to describe how this memory fades over time. The precipitation–runoff relationship is analyzed through the concept of elasticity. Elasticity quantifies the change in one quantity caused by the change in another quantity. We analyze the elasticity of the relation between the annual anomalies of runoff yield and humidity index. We identify Catchment Forgetting Curves (CFC) to quantify multi-year catchment memory, considering not only the current year's humidity anomaly but also the anomalies of the preceding years. The variability of CFCs is investigated on a set of 158 Swedish and 527 French catchments. As expected, French catchments overlying large aquifers exhibit a long memory, i.e., with the impact of climate anomalies detected over several years. In Sweden, the expected effect of the lakes is less clear. For both countries, a relatively strong relationship between the humidity index and memory is identified, with drier regions exhibiting longer memory. Taking into account the multi-year memory has significantly improved the elasticity analysis for 15 % of the catchments. Our work thus underlines the need to account for catchment memory in order to produce meaningful and geographically coherent elasticity indices.
Published: 2022
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14. The added value of km-scale simulations to describe temperature over complex orography: the CORDEX FPS-Convection multi-model ensemble runs over the Alps

Author: P. M. M. Soares, J. A. M. Careto, Rita M. Cardoso, Klaus Goergen, Eleni Katragkou, Stefan Sobolowski, Erika Coppola, Nikolina Ban, Danijel Belušić, Ségolène Berthou, Cécile Caillaud, Andreas Dobler, Øivind Hodnebrog, Stergios Kartsios, Geert Lenderink, T. Lorenz, Josipa Milovac, Hendrik Feldmann, Emanuela Pichelli, Heimo Truhetz, Marie Estelle Demory, Hylke de Vries, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Klaus Keuler, Mario Raffa, Merja Tölle, Kevin Sieck, Sophie Bastin, Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), Instituto Dom Luiz, Agrosphere, IBG-3, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Juliers, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems (HPSC TerrSys), Department of Meteorology and Climatology [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences [Innsbruck] (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck [Innsbruck], Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Department of Geophysics [Zagreb], Faculty of Science [Zagreb], University of Zagreb-University of Zagreb, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), NORCE Norwegian Research Center, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), Universidad de Cantabria [Santander]-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Institute of Physics and Meteorology [Stuttgart] (IPM), University of Hohenheim, Brandenburg University of Technology [Cottbus – Senftenberg] (BTU), REgional Model and geo-Hydrological Impacts (REMHI), Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Center for Environmental Systems Research [Kassel] (CESR), Universität Kassel [Kassel], Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), SPACE - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Earth sciences, Atmospheric Science, Kilometre-scale resolution, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Probability density functions, ddc:550, Regional climate modelling, Maximum and minimum temperature, Added value
Abstract: The increase in computational resources has enabled the emergence of multi-model ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM) simulations at very high horizontal resolutions. An example is the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on “Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean”, a set of kilometre-scale simulations over an extended Alpine domain. This first-of-its-kind multi-model ensemble, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, can be considered a benchmark dataset. This study uses a recently proposed metric to determine the added value of all the available Flagship Pilot Study hindcast kilometre-scale simulations for maximum and minimum temperature. The analysis is performed using state-of-the-art gridded and station observations as ground truth. This approach directly assesses the added value between the high-resolution CPRCMs against their driving global simulations and coarser resolution RCM counterparts. Overall, models display some modest gains, but also considerable shortcomings are exhibited. In part, these deficiencies can be attributed to the assimilation of temperature observations into ERA-Interim. Although the gains for the use of kilometre-scale resolution for temperature are limited, the improvement of the spatial representation of local atmospheric circulations and land–atmosphere interactions can ultimately lead to gains, particularly in coastal areas. The added value of km-scale simulations to describe temperature over complex orography: the CORDEX FPS-Convection multi-model ensemble runs over the Alps publishedVersion
Published: 2022
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15. Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study

Author: Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, Tahya Weiss-Gibbons, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Department of Geography [Montréal], McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Climate Chemistry Measurements and Research, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), The University of Tennessee [Knoxville], Department of Environmental Science [Roskilde] (ENVS), Aarhus University [Aarhus], Institute of Nuclear and Radiological Sciences and Technology, Energy and Safety (INRASTES), National Center for Scientific Research 'Demokritos' (NCSR), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System, Dipartimento di Chimica 'Ugo schifo', Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence (UniFI), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Department of Applied Physics [Kuopio], University of Kuopio, Atmospheric Research Centre of Eastern Finland, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Center for Earth System Science [Beijing] (CESS), Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), University of Toronto, Extreme Environments Research Laboratory (EERL), Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford, Assessments from the Russian ship-basedcampaign were performed with the support of RFBR projectno. 20-55-12001 and according to the development program ofthe Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V.Lomonosov Moscow State University 'Future Planet and GlobalEnvironmental Change'. Development of the methodology foraethalometric data treatment was supported by RSF project no. 19-77-30004. The BC observations on R/V Mirai were supported bythe Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan (Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS)project). Contributions by SMHI were funded by the SwedishEnvironmental Protection Agency under contract NV-03174-20and the Swedish Climate and Clean Air Research program(SCAC) as well as partly by the Swedish National Space Board(NORD-SLCP, grant agreement ID: 94/16) and the EU Horizon2020 project Integrated Arctic Observing System (INTAROS, grantagreement ID: 727890). Work on ACE-FTS analysis was supportedby the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council ofCanada (NSERC). Julia Schmale received funding from theSwiss National Science Foundation (project no. 200021_188478).Duncan Watson-Parris received funding from NERC projectsNE/P013406/1 (A-CURE) and NE/S005390/1 (ACRUISE) as wellas funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research andinnovation program iMIRACLI under Marie Skłodowska-Curiegrant agreement no. 860100. LATMOS has been supported bythe EU iCUPE (Integrating and Comprehensive Understandingon Polar Environments) project (grant agreement no. 689443)under the European Network for Observing our Changing Planet(ERA-Planet), as well as access to IDRIS HPC resources (GENCIallocation A009017141) and the IPSL mesoscale computing center(CICLAD: Calcul Intensif pour le CLimat, l’Atmosphère et laDynamique) for model simulations. Naga Oshima was supportedby the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI(grant nos. JP18H03363, JP18H05292, and JP21H03582), theEnvironment Research and Technology Development Fund (grantnos. JPMEERF20202003 and JPMEERF20205001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, the ArcticChallenge for Sustainability II (ArCS II) under program grantno. JPMXD1420318865, and a grant for the Global Environmental Research Coordination System from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MLIT1753). The research with GISS-E2.1 has been supported by the Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centrefor Climate Change (iClimate) OH fund (no. 2020-0162731), the FREYA project funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers (grantagreement nos. MST-227-00036 and MFVM-2019-13476), and the EVAM-SLCF funded by the Danish Environmental Agency(grant agreement no. MST-112-00298). Jesper Christensen (for DEHM model) received funding from the Danish EnvironmentalProtection Agency (DANCEA funds for Environmental Support to the Arctic Region project, grant no. 2019-7975). Maria Sand hasbeen supported by the Research Council of Norway (grant 315195, ACCEPT), ANR-17-EQPX-0001,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage(2017), European Project: iCUPE, European Project: 689443,H2020,H2020-SC5-2015-one-stage,ERA-PLANET(2016), and European Project: 315195,EC:FP7:SME,FP7-SME-2012,NANOFLOC(2013)
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Arctic climate, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Atmospheric Science, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Atmospheric models, Simulació per ordinador, Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, Climatic changes, Air pollutants
Abstract: While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, O3, BC, and SO), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for CH4 and greatest for OA. For most SLCFs, model biases skewed from positive to negative with increasing latitude. Our analysis suggests that vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfires remain highly uncertain processes. These processes need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. As model development proceeds in these areas, we highly recommend that the vertical and 3-D distribution of SLCFs be evaluated, as that information is critical to improving the uncertain processes in models. Assessments from the Russian ship-based campaign were performed with the support of RFBR project no. 20-55-12001 and according to the development program of the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University “Future Planet and Global Environmental Change”. Development of the methodology for aethalometric data treatment was supported by RSF project no. 19-77-30004. The BC observations on R/V Mirai were supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan (Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) project). Contributions by SMHI were funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency under contract NV-03174-20 and the Swedish Climate and Clean Air Research program (SCAC) as well as partly by the Swedish National Space Board (NORD-SLCP, grant agreement ID: 94/16) and the EU Horizon 2020 project Integrated Arctic Observing System (INTAROS, grant agreement ID: 727890). Work on ACE-FTS analysis was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). Julia Schmale received funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (project no. 200021_188478). Duncan Watson-Parris received funding from NERC projects NE/P013406/1 (A-CURE) and NE/S005390/1 (ACRUISE) as well as funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program iMIRACLI under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 860100. LATMOS has been supported by the EU iCUPE (Integrating and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments) project (grant agreement no. 689443) under the European Network for Observing our Changing Planet (ERA-Planet), as well as access to IDRIS HPC resources (GENCI allocation A009017141) and the IPSL mesoscale computing center (CICLAD: Calcul Intensif pour le CLimat, l’Atmosphère et la Dynamique) for model simulations. Naga Oshima was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (grant nos. JP18H03363, JP18H05292, and JP21H03582), the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant nos. JPMEERF20202003 and JPMEERF20205001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (ArCS II) under program grant no. JPMXD1420318865, and a grant for the Global Environmental Research Coordination System from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MLIT1753). The research with GISS-E2.1 has been supported by the Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change (iClimate) OH fund (no. 2020-0162731), the FREYA project funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers (grant agreement nos. MST-227-00036 and MFVM-2019-13476), and the EVAM-SLCF funded by the Danish Environmental Agency (grant agreement no. MST-112-00298). Jesper Christensen (for DEHM model) received funding from the Danish Environmental Protection Agency (DANCEA funds for Environmental Support to the Arctic Region project; grant no. 2019-7975). Maria Sand has been supported by the Research Council of Norway (grant 315195, ACCEPT). Peer Reviewed "Article signat per més de 50 autors/es: Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Tahya Weiss-Gibbons "
Published: 2022
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16. Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study

Author: Wanmin Gong, Sangeeta Sharma, Fumikazu Taketani, Duncan Watson-Parris, Knut von Salzen, Tahya Weiss-Gibbons, Sujay Damani, Kostas Tsigaridis, Henrik Skov, Tatsuo Onishi, Jean-Christophe Raut, Sabine Eckhardt, Barbara Winter, Ulas Im, S. R. Beagley, Laura Saunders, Jesper H. Christensen, Joshua Fu, Lin Huang, Fabio Giardi, Yugo Kanaya, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Stephen R. Arnold, Srinath Krishnan, Naga Oshima, Minqi Wang, Mark Flanner, Julia Schmale, Yiran Peng, Rashed Mahmood, Gregory Faluvegi, Joakim Langner, Cynthia H. Whaley, Andreas Massling, David A. Plummer, Kaley A. Walker, Luca Pozzoli, Michael Gauss, Vito Vitale, Steven Turnock, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, Rong-You Chien, Maria Sand, Manu Anna Thomas, Silvia Becagli, Louis Marelle, Rita Traversi, Olga Popovicheva, Svetlana Tsyro, Zbigniew Klimont, Jens Hjorth, Thomas Kuhn, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Kathy S. Law, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Department of Geography [Montréal], McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Climate Chemistry Measurements and Research, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), The University of Tennessee [Knoxville], Department of Environmental Science [Roskilde] (ENVS), Aarhus University [Aarhus], Institute of Nuclear and Radiological Sciences and Technology, Energy and Safety (INRASTES), National Center for Scientific Research 'Demokritos' (NCSR), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System, Dipartimento di Chimica 'Ugo schifo', Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Department of Applied Physics [Kuopio], University of Kuopio, Atmospheric Research Centre of Eastern Finland, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Center for Earth System Science [Beijing] (CESS), Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), University of Toronto, Extreme Environments Research Laboratory (EERL), Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford [Oxford], and European Project: iCUPE
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Atmospheric models, Global warming, Northern Hemisphere, Particulates, Atmospheric sciences, Earth system science, Atmosphere, chemistry.chemical_compound, Arctic, chemistry, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Environmental science, Tropospheric ozone
Abstract: The Arctic atmosphere is warming rapidly and its relatively pristine environment is sensitive to the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants. While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles also play a role in Arctic climate on near-term time scales. Atmospheric modelling is critical for understanding the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere, and is used as a tool towards determining SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models, assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over four years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship and aircraft-based observations. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic, though vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfire emissions remain highly uncertain processes. These need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment.
Published: 2022
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17. Land-atmosphere interactions in sub-polar and alpine climates in the CORDEX flagship pilot study Land Use and Climate Across Scales (LUCAS) models - Part 1: Evaluation of the snow-albedo effect

Author: Anne Sophie Daloz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Priscilla Mooney, Susanna Strada, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Michal Belda, Tomas Halenka, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, Marianne T. Lund, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), NORCE Norwegian Research Center, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Charles University [Prague] (CU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Center for Environmental Systems Research [Kassel] (CESR), and Universität Kassel [Kassel]
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Earth sciences, 530 Physics, ddc:550, 000 Computer science, knowledge & systems, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology
Abstract: Seasonal snow cover plays a major role in the climate system of the Northern Hemisphere via its effect on land surface albedo and fluxes. In climate models the parameterization of interactions between snow and atmosphere remains a source of uncertainty and biases in the representation of local and global climate. Here, we evaluate the ability of an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) coupled with different land surface models to simulate snow–atmosphere interactions over Europe in winter and spring. We use a previously defined index, the snow-albedo sensitivity index (SASI), to quantify the radiative forcing associated with snow cover anomalies. By comparing RCM-derived SASI values with SASI calculated from reanalyses and satellite retrievals, we show that an accurate simulation of snow cover is essential for correctly reproducing the observed forcing over middle and high latitudes in Europe. The choice of parameterizations, and primarily the choice of the land surface model, strongly influences the representation of SASI as it affects the ability of climate models to simulate snow cover accurately. The degree of agreement between the datasets differs between the accumulation and ablation periods, with the latter one presenting the greatest challenge for the RCMs. Given the dominant role of land surface processes in the simulation of snow cover during the ablation period, the results suggest that, during this time period, the choice of the land surface model is more critical for the representation of SASI than the atmospheric model.
Published: 2022
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18. Improving the usability of climate services for the water sector: The AQUACLEW experience

Author: Pimentel, Rafael, Photiadou, Christiana, Little, Lorna, Huber, Andreas, Lemoine, Anthony, Leidinger, David, Lira-Loarca, Andrea, Lückenkötter, Johannes, Pasten-Zapata, Ernesto, Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), University of Innsbruck, Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Institute for Meteorology and Climatology [Vienna] (BOKU-Met), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Universidad de Granada = University of Granada (UGR), Technische Universität Dortmund [Dortmund] (TU), Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), University of Eastern Finland, Elsevier, and European Project: 690462,AQUACLEW
Subjects: Benchmarking, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, User Engagement, Water Sector, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, Climate projection, Climate Services
Abstract: In AQUACLEW (Advancing the QUAlity of CLimate services for European Water), a project funded by JPI Climate and the ERA-NET Consortium ‘European Research Area for Climate Services (ERA4CS), we examined different ways of improving the usability of existing Climate Services across Europe tackling key aspects in Climate Services improvement: user engagement, lack of resolution, uncertainties, and the need of an evaluation. The rationale of the project is based on an interactive process between service developers and users in seven study cases across Europe assessing the implications of Climate Service’ advancement in users’ decision-making process. A qualitative evaluation assessment allowed us to identify-four pillars when improving the quality of the climate services in the water sector: (1) Robustness, accounting for better quality of the service’ information in certain aspects; (2) Recruitment, understood as a need of involving users more actively in CS structures; (3) Reform, highlighting the possible need for changes in both the service structure and users mindsets; and (4) Reflection, as a process of continuous evaluation of the climate service during its life., Swedish Research Council Formas, BMWFW, Spanish Government, French National Research Agency (ANR), European Commission European Commission Joint Research Centre, Helmholtz Association, German Aerospace Centre (DLR), IFD 690462
Published: 2022
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19. Convection in future winter storms over Northern Europe

Author: Ségolène Berthou, Malcolm J Roberts, Benoît Vannière, Nikolina Ban, Danijel Belušić, Cécile Caillaud, Thomas Crocker, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Dan Harris, Elizabeth J Kendon, Oskar Landgren, Colin Manning, Met Office Climate Research Division, United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), NCAS-Climate [Reading], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences [Innsbruck] (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck [Innsbruck], Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), University of Zagreb, Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat (GMGEC), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), University of Bristol [Bristol], School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences [Newcastle], Newcastle University [Newcastle], and European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017)
Subjects: climate change, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, convection-permitting models, precipitation, winter storms, extratropical cyclones, convection, General Environmental Science
Abstract: Precipitation within extratropical cyclones is very likely to increase towards the end of the century in a business-as-usual scenario. We investigate hourly precipitation changes in end-of-century winter storms with the first km-scale model ensemble covering northwest Europe and the Baltic region. This is an ensemble that explicitly represents convection (convection permitting models (CPMs)). Models agree that future winter storms will bring 10%-50% more precipitation, with the same level of light precipitation but more moderate and heavy precipitation, together with less frequent frozen precipitation. The warm sector precipitation rates will get closer (up to similar) to those in present-day autumn storms, along with higher convective available potential energy and convective inhibition, suggesting more convection embedded in storms. To the first order, mean hourly precipitation changes in winter storms are driven by temperature increase (with little relative humidity changes) and storm dynamical intensity (more uncertain), both captured by regional climate models (RCMs). The CPMs agree with this, and in addition, most CPMs show more increase in intense precipitation in the warm sector of storms compared to their parent RCM., Environmental Research Letters, 17 (11), ISSN:1748-9326, ISSN:1748-9318
Published: 2022
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20. BUILDING A RELIABLE AND STANDARDIZED LONG-TERM DATA SET OF SURFACE COASTAL OCEAN CURRENTS FROM THE EUROPEAN HF RADARS

Author: Rubio, Anna, Solabarrieta, Lohitzune, Corgnati, Lorenzo, Mantovani, Carlo, Reyes, Emma, Rotllan-García, Paz, Novellino, Antonio, Gorringe, Patrick, Griffa, Annalisa, Mader, Julien, AZTI - Tecnalia, AZTI Pasaia (AZTI), AZTI, Istituto di Science Marine (ISMAR ), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), SOCIB Balearic Islands Coastal Ocean Observing and Forecasting System, ETT, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), AZTI-Tecnalia (Marine Research Division), AZTI-Tecnalia, Shom, Ifremer, EuroGOOS AISBL, and MORVAN, Gaël
Subjects: [SDE] Environmental Sciences, standardization, High-frequency radars, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, surface ocean current, quality control, time series
Abstract: HF radar (HFR) is recognized as a cost-effective solution to provide high spatiotemporal resolution maps of ocean surface currents over wide coastal areas, suitable for many applications for coastal management. While the value of Near Real Time (NRT) data has been highlighted on many occasions for monitoring and predicting the surface drift of floating objects, long-term data series are key for the study of coastal ocean processes, their interplay, air sea interactions and connectivity between marine areas. To enhance the data use for these applications, the availability of reliable and standardized data sets of surface currents is crucial. Here we present the recent efforts made by the HFR community, in the framework of different projects and under the umbrella of the EuroGOOS HFR Task Team, to build the first historical European standardized HFR data set.The data quality control and processing methodology consists in five steps: (i) harvesting standardized data from the European HFR Node NRT catalogue and complementary non standardized (raw) data from HFR data providers; (ii) standardizing raw data through the European HFR Node software tools; (iii) applying Advanced Quality Control (AQC) by producing and analysing plots of time-series and maps of the current velocity, reporting number of valid data, basic QC flags and the spatiotemporal coverage 80/80 metric; (iv) disseminating the advanced QC outcomes through an open access repository and (v) reprocessing data in collaboration with each HFR data provider. Following this protocol, data from 11 European networks (comprising 32 radial stations, representing almost 29% of the total) and additional networks from 5 regional nodes from US, have been processed. Long-term HFR surface current data sets from Europe and US HFRs are already available in the Copernicus Marine Service portfolio as ‘radar_total’ dataset in the INSITU_GLO_UV_L2_REP_OBSERVATIONS_013_044 product. Future work will consolidate these efforts by optimizing the tools for AQC and data processing, expanding the available data series, and adding new systems., Le radar HF (HFR) est reconnu comme une solution rentable pour fournir des cartes à haute résolution spatio-temporelle des courants de surface océaniques sur de larges zones côtières, adaptées à de nombreuses applications pour la gestion des côtes. Alors que la valeur des données en temps quasi réel (NRT) a été soulignée à de nombreuses reprises pour la surveillance et la prévision de la dérive en surface des objets flottants, les séries de données à long terme sont essentielles pour l'étude des processus océaniques côtiers, de leur interaction, des interactions air-mer et de la connectivité entre les zones marines. Pour améliorer l'utilisation des données pour ces applications, il est crucial de disposer de séries de données fiables et normalisées sur les courants de surface. Nous présentons ici les efforts récents réalisés par la communauté HFR, dans le cadre de différents projets et sous l'égide de l'équipe de travail HFR d'EuroGOOS, pour construire le premier ensemble de données HFR normalisé européen historique.La méthodologie de traitement et de contrôle de la qualité des données consiste en cinq étapes : (i) récolte des données normalisées du catalogue NRT du nœud européen HFR et des données complémentaires non normalisées (brutes) des fournisseurs de données HFR ; (ii) normalisation des données brutes par le biais des outils logiciels du nœud européen HFR ; (iii) l'application d'un contrôle de qualité avancé (CQA) en produisant et en analysant des graphiques de séries temporelles et des cartes de la vitesse actuelle, en signalant le nombre de données valides, les indicateurs de CQ de base et la métrique de couverture spatio-temporelle 80/80 ; (iv) la diffusion des résultats du CQA avancé par le biais d'un dépôt en libre accès et (v) le retraitement des données en collaboration avec chaque fournisseur de données HFR. Suivant ce protocole, les données de 11 réseaux européens (comprenant 32 stations radiales, représentant près de 29% du total) et des réseaux supplémentaires de 5 nœuds régionaux des États-Unis, ont été traitées. Les ensembles de données de courant de surface HFR à long terme provenant des HFR européens et américains sont déjà disponibles dans le portefeuille Copernicus Marine Service en tant qu'ensemble de données "radar_total" dans le produit INSITU_GLO_UV_L2_REP_OBSERVATIONS_013_044. Les travaux futurs consolideront ces efforts en optimisant les outils de CQA et de traitement des données, en élargissant les séries de données disponibles et en ajoutant de nouveaux systèmes.
Published: 2021

21. NOUVEAU SYSTÈME COUPLÉ DE PRÉVISION POUR LA ZONE DE LA MER BALTIQUE

Author: Nord, Adam, Kärnä, Tuomas, Lindenthal, Anja, Ljungemyr, Patrik, Maljutenko, Ilja, Falahat, Saeed, Ringgaard, Ida, Korabel, Vasily, Kanarik, Hedi, Verjovkina, Svetlana, Jandt, Simon, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency [Hamburg] (BSH), Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure [Berlin] (BMVI), Tallinn Technical University, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Shom, Ifremer, EuroGOOS AISBL, and MORVAN, Gaël
Subjects: [SDE] Environmental Sciences, Nemo-Nordic, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, BAL MFC, CMEMS, WAM, ERGOM
Abstract: The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) is providing operational data products for the European Seas. During the current phase of CMEMS, Baltic Monitoring Forecasting Centre (BAL MFC) has been developing a brand new coupled forecasting system for the Baltic Sea area. With the latest update in December 2020 the products of the new model system for near real-time became operationally available in the CMEMS catalogue. The system consists of four parts – Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), Ecological Regional Ocean Model (ERGOM), the Wind Wave Model (WAM) and the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The most notable difference between the new system and its predecessor is the change of the physical model to NEMO 4.0 instead of HBM (Hiromb Boos Model), resulting in an improvement in the representation of the physical parameters. NEMO 4 and ERGOM are one-way online coupled and runs at the same production unit. In addition, NEMO and WAM are offline coupled in both directions. These two models are produced at two different production units. WAM uses ice conditions and currents from NEMO to increase the quality of the wave forecast. In return WAM provides NEMO with stokes drift, mainly to improve the extreme sea level events. We present the components of the forecasting system focusing on the implementation and effects of the coupling., Le Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) fournit des produits de données opérationnelles pour les mers européennes. Au cours de la phase actuelle du CMEMS, le Centre de surveillance et de prévision de la Baltique (BAL MFC) a développé un tout nouveau système de prévision couplé pour la zone de la mer Baltique. Avec la dernière mise à jour de décembre 2020, les produits du nouveau système de modèles pour le temps quasi réel sont devenus disponibles de manière opérationnelle dans le catalogue CMEMS. Le système se compose de quatre parties - Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), Ecological Regional Ocean Model (ERGOM), le Wind Wave Model (WAM) et le Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). La différence la plus notable entre le nouveau système et son prédécesseur est le passage du modèle physique à NEMO 4.0 au lieu de HBM (Hiromb Boos Model), ce qui entraîne une amélioration de la représentation des paramètres physiques. NEMO 4 et ERGOM sont couplés en ligne à sens unique et fonctionnent dans la même unité de production. En outre, NEMO et WAM sont couplés hors ligne dans les deux sens. Ces deux modèles sont produits dans deux unités de production différentes. WAM utilise les conditions de glace et les courants de NEMO pour améliorer la qualité de la prévision des vagues. En retour, WAM fournit à NEMO la dérive des stokes, principalement pour améliorer les événements extrêmes de niveau de la mer. Nous présentons les composants du système de prévision en nous concentrant sur la mise en œuvre et les effets du couplage.
Published: 2021

22. THE BOOS MODELLING PROGRAMME (BMP) -ACTIVITIES, WORKING GROUPS AND PLANS

Author: Brüning, Thorger, Murawski, Jens, Staneva, Joanna, Frishfelds, Vilnis, Nord, Adam, She, Jun, Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency [Hamburg] (BSH), Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure [Berlin] (BMVI), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, University of Latvia (LU), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Shom, Ifremer, EuroGOOS AISBL, and MORVAN, Gaël
Subjects: [SDE] Environmental Sciences, Baltic Sea, operational modelling, international cooperation, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, networking, BOOS
Abstract: The BOOS modelling program (BMP) has recently undergone the effort to update and defi ne new research and development priorities as a community. As an association of operational and research institutes in the Baltic Sea Region, BMP works on enhancing and integrating operational modelling capacities. On a goodwill basis, the institutes support and inform each other on their operational ocean modelling activities, exchange know-how and tools. Communities networking activities and programs have been either established or strengthened. The operationalization of research will be intensifi ed through interactions with external research groups (e.g. through workshops). One of the main objectives of the BMP is the scientifi c coordination of modelling activities under the BOOS and connected advancement of methodologies, such as coastal downscaling, coupling between different model compartments, data assimilation. Under the umbrella of BOOS, now joint working groups and projects have been formed on various futurerelevant topics (e.g. coastal modelling, marine plastics, region-specifi c NEMO model development, data assimilation, validation and multi-model ensemble). The BMP activities' outcomes are primarily thought to support operational model developments of the BOOS/Eurogoos Strategic Agenda. We will present the BMP in general and the individual working groups and their future plans in particular., Le programme de modélisation BOOS (BMP) a récemment fait l'objet d'un effort de mise à jour et de définition de nouvelles priorités de recherche et de développement en tant que communauté. En tant qu'association d'instituts opérationnels et de recherche dans la région de la mer Baltique, le BMP travaille à l'amélioration et à l'intégration des capacités de modélisation opérationnelle. Sur la base de la bonne volonté, les instituts se soutiennent et s'informent mutuellement sur leurs activités de modélisation océanique opérationnelle, échangent leur savoir-faire et leurs outils. Des activités et des programmes de mise en réseau des communautés ont été établis ou renforcés. L'opérationnalisation de la recherche sera intensifiée par des interactions avec des groupes de recherche externes (par exemple, par le biais d'ateliers). L'un des principaux objectifs du BMP est la coordination scientifique des activités de modélisation dans le cadre du BOOS et l'avancement connexe des méthodologies, telles que la réduction d'échelle côtière, le couplage entre différents compartiments de modèles, l'assimilation de données. Sous l'égide du BOOS, des groupes de travail et des projets conjoints ont été formés sur divers sujets pertinents pour l'avenir (par exemple, la modélisation côtière, les plastiques marins, le développement de modèles NEMO spécifiques à une région, l'assimilation de données, la validation et les ensembles multi-modèles). Les résultats des activités du BMP sont principalement destinés à soutenir les développements de modèles opérationnels de l'agenda stratégique BOOS/Eurogoos. Nous présenterons le BMP en général et les groupes de travail individuels et leurs plans futurs en particulier.
Published: 2021

23. DÉVELOPPER LE SERVICE DE CLIMATOLOGIE MARINE EUROGOOS GRÂCE À UNE APPROCHE INTÉGRÉE DU SYSTÈME TERRESTRE

Author: She, Jun, Bethers, Uldis, Cardin, Vanessa, Christensen, Kai H., Dabrowski, Tomasz, Janssen, Frank, Haapala, Jari, Lars, Arneborg, Legrand, Sébastien, Lien, Vidar, Lips, Inga, Maar, Marie, Mader, Julien, Morucci, Sara, Novellino, Antonio, Orfila, Alejandro, Petihakis, George, Ruiz-Villarreal, Manuel, Staneva, Joanna, Triantafyllou, George, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), University of Latvia (LU), Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale - OGS, Trieste, Italy, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Marine Institute [Ireland], Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency [Hamburg] (BSH), Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure [Berlin] (BMVI), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (RBINS), Institute of Marine Research [Bergen] (IMR), University of Bergen (UiB), Eurogoos, Aarhus University [Aarhus], AZTI-Tecnalia (Marine Research Division), AZTI-Tecnalia, Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (ISPRA), ETT, Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avancats (IMEDEA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC)-Universidad de las Islas Baleares (UIB), Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO), Málaga., Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Shom, Ifremer, and EuroGOOS AISBL
Subjects: marine resources, access, research, EuroGOOS, Green Deal, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, marine climate service, Climate change adaptation, earth system, climate change adaptation, environmental protection, wave energy
Abstract: International audience; The ocean is an important pathway to a low-carbon and climate resilient society, e.g. in areas of blue carbon, green shipping, offshore renewable energy, aquaculture, fishery and coastal adaptation. Currently, 26 EU member states have made their National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) and/or National Strategy Plan (NAP) which needs a strong climate information service. European Global Ocean Observing System (EuroGOOS) has a strategy to expand existing operational marine service to climate change in 2020-2030. As focal points of national marine, climate and/or weather services, ROOS (Regional Sea Operational Oceanographic System) members have extensive experiences in working with citizens, stakeholders and decision-makers at national, regional and municipality levels. This paper will review current marine climate service capacity in ROOS members, identify gaps in modelling, products and service, and propose a seamless earth system approach for developing EuroGOOS and ROOS marine climate service capacities.; L'océan est une voie importante vers une société à faible émission de carbone et résiliente au changement climatique, par exemple dans les domaines du carbone bleu, du transport maritime vert, des énergies renouvelables en mer, de l'aquaculture, de la pêche et de l'adaptation côtière. Actuellement, 26 États membres de l'UE ont élaboré leur stratégie nationale d'adaptation (NAS) et/ou leur plan stratégique national (NAP), ce qui nécessite un service d'information climatique solide. Le système européen d'observation des océans (EuroGOOS) a une stratégie pour étendre le service marin opérationnel existant au changement climatique en 2020-2030. En tant que points focaux des services marins, climatiques et/ou météorologiques nationaux, les membres du ROOS (Regional Sea Operational Oceanographic System) ont une grande expérience de la collaboration avec les citoyens, les parties prenantes et les décideurs aux niveaux national, régional et municipal. Ce document passe en revue les capacités actuelles des services de climatologie marine des membres du ROOS, identifie les lacunes en matière de modélisation, de produits et de services, et propose une approche de système terrestre homogène pour développer les capacités des services de climatologie marine d'EuroGOOS et du ROOS.
Published: 2021

24. THE EUROGOOS HIGH FREQUENCY RADAR TASK TEAM:A SUCCESS STORY OF COLLABORATION TO BE KEPT ALIVE AND MADE GROWING

Author: Corgnati, Lorenzo, Mantovani, Carlo, Rubio, Anna, Reyes, Emma, Rotllan, Paz, Novellino, Antonio, Gorringe, Patrick, Solabarrieta, Lohitzune, Griffa, Annalisa, Mader, Julien, Istituto di Science Marine (ISMAR ), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), AZTI - Tecnalia, SOCIB Balearic Islands Coastal Ocean Observing and Forecasting System, ETT, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), AZTI (AZTI), AZTI, AZTI-Tecnalia (Marine Research Division), AZTI-Tecnalia, Shom, Ifremer, EuroGOOS AISBL, and MORVAN, Gaël
Subjects: [SDE] Environmental Sciences, Quality Control, operational oceanography, HFR network, ocean current, coastal observing system, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, High Frequency Radar, interoperability, European HFR Node, HFR Task Team
Abstract: High Frequency Radar (HFR) is the unique land-based remote sensing technology capable to map ocean surface currents and waves over wide coverages with high spatial and temporal resolution. HFR gained relevance in the integrated management of coastal zones and thus rapidly expanded in Europe (7 new systems per year since 2016), with over 68 sites currently running and 15 in the planning stage. In 2015, EuroGOOS launched the HFR Task Team (HFR-TT) with the aim of promoting HFR in Europe. This was the cornerstone of a fruitful and still ongoing path towards the coordinated development of HFR technology and the full exploitation of its potential.In fact, many initiatives in Europe followed up, aiming at building an operational HFR European network based on coordinated data management. The HFR-TT actions played an important role in the growth of operational installations in Europe, which were up to then managed in research-specifi c contexts and without a strong identity in the marine observation landscape. The achievements are promising: (i) the European HFR community took shape, (ii) a European operational HFR Node, best practices and operational tools were created for the production and distribution of standardized and quality-controlled data, and (iii) HFR data have been included in the main marine data portals (CMEMS-In situ TAC, SeaDataNet and EMODnet Physics). The European HFR Node was established in 2018 by AZTI, CNR-ISMAR and SOCIB, coordinated by the EuroGOOS HFR-TT, as the focal point in Europe for HFR data management and distribution, also ensuring the connection with the Global HFR network. The Node is fully operational since December 2018 and is now managing data from 15 European HFR networks and integrates and delivers US HFR network data, Le radar à haute fréquence (HFR) est la seule technologie de télédétection terrestre capable de cartographier les courants et les vagues à la surface des océans sur de larges couvertures avec une haute résolution spatiale et temporelle. Le HFR a gagné en pertinence dans la gestion intégrée des zones côtières et s'est donc rapidement développé en Europe (7 nouveaux systèmes par an depuis 2016), avec plus de 68 sites actuellement en fonctionnement et 15 en phase de planification. En 2015, EuroGOOS a lancé l'équipe de travail HFR (HFR-TT) dans le but de promouvoir le HFR en Europe. Ce fut la pierre angulaire d'un chemin fructueux et toujours en cours vers le développement coordonné de la technologie HFR et la pleine exploitation de son potentiel.En effet, de nombreuses initiatives en Europe ont suivi, visant à construire un réseau européen HFR opérationnel basé sur une gestion coordonnée des données. Les actions HFR-TT ont joué un rôle important dans la croissance des installations opérationnelles en Europe, qui étaient jusqu'alors gérées dans des contextes spécifiques à la recherche et sans identité forte dans le paysage de l'observation marine. Les résultats sont prometteurs : (i) la communauté HFR européenne a pris forme, (ii) un nœud HFR opérationnel européen, des meilleures pratiques et des outils opérationnels ont été créés pour la production et la distribution de données standardisées et de qualité contrôlée, et (iii) les données HFR ont été incluses dans les principaux portails de données marines (CMEMS-In situ TAC, SeaDataNet et EMODnet Physics). Le nœud européen HFR a été établi en 2018 par AZTI, CNR-ISMAR et SOCIB, coordonné par l'EuroGOOS HFR-TT, comme point focal en Europe pour la gestion et la distribution des données HFR, assurant également la connexion avec le réseau mondial HFR. Le nœud est pleinement opérationnel depuis décembre 2018 et gère maintenant les données de 15 réseaux HFR européens et intègre et fournit les données du réseau HFR américain.
Published: 2021

25. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes

Author: Elizabeth Lewis, Abdullah Kahraman, Christoph Schär, Conrad Wasko, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Roberto Villalobos-Herrera, Jason P. Evans, Katy L. Peat, Hayley J. Fowler, Paul A. O'Gorman, Selma B. Guerreiro, Harriet G. Orr, David Pritchard, Gabriele Villarini, Steven Chan, Nalan Senol Cabi, Nikolina Ban, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Andreas F. Prein, Seth Westra, Marie Ekström, Richard P. Allan, Haider Ali, Ashish Sharma, Stephen Blenkinsop, Peter A. Stott, Renaud Barbero, Xiaofeng Li, Giorgia Fosser, Murray Dale, Michael Wehner, Brian Golding, Anna Whitford, Geert Lenderink, Robert Dunn, Peter Berg, School of Engineering [Newcastle], Newcastle University [Newcastle], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR), Department of Atmospheric and Cryosphere Sciences [Innsbruck] (ACINN), Leopold Franzens Universität Innsbruck - University of Innsbruck, Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Willis Research Network London, JBA Consulting, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], School of Earth and Ocean Sciences [Cardiff], Cardiff University, Climate Change Research Centre [Sydney] (CCRC), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori (IUSS), School of Geosciences [Edinburgh], University of Edinburgh, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), School of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Sydney], Department of Infrastructure Engineering [Melbourne], Melbourne School of Engineering [Melbourne], University of Melbourne-University of Melbourne, Computational Research Division [LBNL Berkeley] (CRD), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley] (LBNL), University of Adelaide, NERC-funded FUTURE-STORMS (NE/R01079X/1)FUTURE-DRAINAGE (NE/S017348/1)Wolfson Foundation and the Royal Society asa Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award (WM140025) holderMet Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101)NSF AGS-1552195 the MIT Environmental Solutions Initiative, European Project: 617329,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-CoG,INTENSE(2014), European Project: 690462,H2020,H2020-SC5-2015-one-stage,ERA4CS(2016), SWEDISH METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL INSTITUTE NORRKÖPING SWE, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), JBAConsulting, and South Barn
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, General Mathematics, rainfall, 0207 environmental engineering, General Physics and Astronomy, Climate change, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Flash flood, Precipitation, 020701 environmental engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global warming, Flooding (psychology), General Engineering, Landslide, climate change, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Scale (social sciences), Convective storm detection, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, ZABR, flash flood
Abstract: A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate (6–7% K −1 ), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.
Published: 2021
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26. Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden

Author: M. Girons Lopez, L. Crochemore, I. G. Pechlivanidis, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), RiverLy - Fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes (RiverLy), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Swedish Energy AgencyMaterials & Energy Research Center (MERC) 46412-1, and European Project: 776787,S2S4E
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, media_common.quotation_subject, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Forecast skill, 02 engineering and technology, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Technology, lcsh:TD1-1066, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Streamflow, Added value, lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Hydropower, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common, lcsh:GE1-350, business.industry, lcsh:T, Environmental resource management, Probabilistic logic, lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Benchmarking, 020801 environmental engineering, lcsh:G, Service (economics), [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Seasonal forecasting, Environmental science, business
Abstract: Probabilistic seasonal forecasts are important for many water-intensive activities requiring long-term planning. Among the different techniques used for seasonal forecasting, the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) approach has long been employed due to the singular dependence on past meteorological records. The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute is currently extending the use of long-range forecasts within its operational warning service, which requires a thorough analysis of the suitability and applicability of different methods with the national S-HYPE hydrological model. To this end, we aim to evaluate the skill of ESP forecasts over 39 493 catchments in Sweden, understand their spatio-temporal patterns, and explore the main hydrological processes driving forecast skill. We found that ESP forecasts are generally skilful for most of the country up to 3 months into the future but that large spatio-temporal variations exist. Forecasts are most skilful during the winter months in northern Sweden, except for the highly regulated hydropower-producing rivers. The relationships between forecast skill and 15 different hydrological signatures show that forecasts are most skilful for slow-reacting, baseflow-dominated catchments and least skilful for flashy catchments. Finally, we show that forecast skill patterns can be spatially clustered in seven unique regions with similar hydrological behaviour. Overall, these results contribute to identifying in which areas and seasons and how long into the future ESP hydrological forecasts provide an added value, not only for the national forecasting and warning service, but also, most importantly, for guiding decision-making in critical services such as hydropower management and risk reduction.
Published: 2021
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27. Are large scale models useful? A case of nested model domains for assessing current and future stream runoff and sediments

Author: Alban de Lavenne, Berit Arheimer, Alena Bartosova, René Capell, Johan Strömqvist, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), and de Lavenne, Alban
Subjects: Hydrology, Current (stream), 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, Environmental science, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, 15. Life on land, Surface runoff, Scale model, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Nested set model
Abstract: Continental and global dynamic hydrological models have emerged recently as tools for e.g. flood forecasting, large-scale climate impact analyses, and estimation of time-dynamic water fluxes into sea basins. One such tool is a dynamic process-based rainfall-runoff and water quality model Hydrological Predictions for Environment (HYPE). We present and compare historical simulations of runoff, soil moisture, aridity, and sediment concentrations for three nested model domains using global, continental (Europe), and national (Sweden) catchment-based HYPE applications. Future impacts on hydrological variables from changing climate were then assessed using the global and continental HYPE applications with ensembles based on 3 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs).Simulated historical sediment concentrations varied considerably among the nested models in spatial patterns while runoff values were more similar. Regardless of the variation, the global model was able to provide information on climate change impacts comparable to those from the continental and national models for hydrological indicators. Output variables that were calibrated, e.g. runoff, were shown to result in more reliable and consistent projected changes among the different model scales than derived variables such as the actual aridity index. The comparison was carried out for ensemble averages as well as individual GCMs to illustrate the variability and the need for robust assessments.Global hydrological models are shown to be valuable tools for e.g. first screenings of climate change effects and detection of spatial patterns and can be useful to provide information on current and future hydrological states at various domains. The challenge is (1) in deciding when we should use the large-scale models and (2) in interpreting the results, considering the uncertainty of the model results and quality of data especially at the global scale. Comparison across nested domains demonstrates the significance of scale which needs to be considered when interpreting the impacts alongside with model performance.Bartosova et al, 2021: Large-scale hydrological and sediment modeling in nested domains under current and changing climate. Accepted to Special Issue Journal of Hydraulic Engineering.
Published: 2021
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28. The EC-Earth3 Earth System Model for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6

Author: Raffaele Bernardello, Pablo Ortega, Pirkka Ollinaho, M. Pasha Karami, Federico Serva, Declan O'Donnell, David Wårlind, Matthias Gröger, Torben Koenigk, Paul A. Miller, Franco Catalano, Arthur Ramos, Klaus Wyser, Glenn Carver, Ivana Cvijanovic, Evelien Dekker, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, Martin Ménégoz, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Roland Schrödner, Mario Acosta, Shiyu Wang, Louis-Philippe Caron, Qiong Zhang, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Ulrika Willén, Torben Schmith, Philippe Le Sager, Paul Nolan, Lars Nieradzik, Tommi Bergman, Shuting Yang, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Twan van Noije, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Oriol Tintó Prims, François Massonnet, Clement Rousset, Miguel Castrillo, Souhail Bousetta, Petteri Uotila, David Docquier, Jost von Hardenberg, Risto Makkonen, Valentina Sicardi, Gijs van den Oord, Uwe Fladrich, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Thomas Reerink, Paolo Davini, Martin Vancoppenolle, Jenny Hieronymus, Benjamin Smith, Etienne Tourigny, Almut Arneth, Thomas Arsouze, Ralf Doescher, Tian Tian, Pablo Echevarria, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), CNR Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Politecnico di Torino = Polytechnic of Turin (Polito), University of Helsinki, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Lund University [Lund], Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile = Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, European community, Computer science, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Frame (networking), 01 natural sciences, Variety (cybernetics), Coupling (computer programming), [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Systems engineering, Range (statistics), Key (cryptography), Climate model, Earth system model, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: The Earth System Model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different HPC systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behaviour and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Published: 2021
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29. Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Author: Elizabeth J. Kendon, Xuebin Zhang, Andreas F. Prein, Stephen Blenkinsop, Conrad Wasko, Richard P. Allan, Ashish Sharma, Nikolina Ban, Selma B. Guerreiro, Gabriele Villarini, Christoph Schaer, Hong Xuan Do, Geert Lenderink, Seth Westra, Jan O. Haerter, Elizabeth Lewis, Peter Berg, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Newcastle University [Newcastle], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), University of Adelaide, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences [Innsbruck] (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck [Innsbruck], Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System, Nong Lam University [Hô-Chi-Minh] (NLU), Niels Bohr Institute [Copenhagen] (NBI), Faculty of Science [Copenhagen], University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT), Jacobs University [Bremen], Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Departement Erdwissenschaften [ETH Zürich] (D-ERDW), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Hydroscience and Engineering [Iowa City] (IIHR), University of Iowa [Iowa City], University of Melbourne, Environment and Climate Change Canada, UK Natural Environment Research Council (FUTURE-STORMS, NE/R01079X/1)Wolfson Foundation and the Royal Society through a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award (grant no. WM140025)Wolfson FoundationRoyal Society through a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award WM140025the US National Science Foundationthe Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by the UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy and the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (grant no. GA01101)Villum Foundation (grant no. 13168)Novo Nordisk Foundation Interdisciplinary Synergy Program (grant no. NNF19OC0057374)the US Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources (IWR), European Project: 617329,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-CoG,INTENSE(2014), and European Project: 690462,H2020,H2020-SC5-2015-one-stage,ERA4CS(2016)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Flood myth, Atmospheric moisture, Atmospheric circulation, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Flooding (psychology), 0207 environmental engineering, Storm, 02 engineering and technology, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, Pollution, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Flash flood, Environmental science, Temperature stratification, 020701 environmental engineering, Short duration, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Earth-Surface Processes
Abstract: Short-duration (1–3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth’s climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short-duration and long-duration (>1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (~7% K−1), while in some regions, increases in short-duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture increases alone. These stronger local increases are related to feedbacks in convective clouds, but their exact role is uncertain because of the very small scales involved. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large-scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short-duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales, and this can further compound with an increase in storm spatial footprint to considerably increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks. Short-duration rainfall extremes are determined by complex processes that are affected by the warming climate. This Review assesses the evidence for the intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes, the associated drivers and the implications for flood risks.
Published: 2021
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30. PRODUITS DE DONNÉES SEADATACLOUD POUR LES MERS MARGINALES EUROPÉENNES ET L'OCÉAN MONDIAL

Author: Simoncelli Simona, Christine COATANOAN, Myroshnychenko Volodymyr, Back Orjan, Sagen Helge, Scory Serge, Oliveri Paolo, Shahzadi Kanwal, Pinardi Nadia, Barth Alexander, Troupin Charles, Schlitzer Reiner, Michèle Fichaut, Schaap Dick, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Palermo (INGV), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, IFREMER (IDM), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Middle East Technical University [Ankara] (METU), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Institute of Marine Research [Bergen] (IMR), University of Bergen (UiB), Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (RBINS), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Bologna (INGV), Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy, GHER, Université de Liège, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), MARIS, Shom, Ifremer, and EuroGOOS AISBL
Subjects: co-production, aggregated datasets, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, climatologies, quality assurance, data value chain
Abstract: International audience; Data products, based on in situ temperature and salinity observations from SeaDataNetinfrastructure, have been released within the framework of SeaDataCloud (SDC)project. The data from different data providers are integrated and harmonized thanksto standardized quality assurance and quality control methodologies conducted at various stages of the data value chain. The data ingested within SeaDataNet are earlier validated by data providers who assign corresponding quality fl ags, but a Quality Assurance Strategy has been implemented and progressively refi ned to guarantee the consistency of the database content and high quality derived products. Two versions of aggregated datasets for the European marginal seas have been published and used to compute regional high resolution climatologies. External datasets, the World Ocean Database from NOAA and the CORA dataset from the Copernicus Marine Service in situ Thematic Assembly Center, have been integrated with SDC data collections to maximize data coverage and minimize the mapping error. The products are available through the SDC catalogue accompanied by Product Information Documents containing the specifi cations about product’s generation, characteristics and usability. Digital Object Identifiers are assigned to products and relative documentation to foster transparency of the production chain, acknowledging all actors involved from data providers to information producers.; Des produits de données, basés sur les observations in situ de température et de salinité de l'infrastructure SeaDataNet, ont été publiés dans le cadre du projet SeaDataCloud (SDC). Les données provenant de différents fournisseurs de données sont intégrées et harmonisées grâce à des méthodologies normalisées d'assurance et de contrôle de la qualité menées à différentes étapes de la chaîne de valeur des données. Les données ingérées dans SeaDataNet sont préalablement validées par les fournisseurs de données qui attribuent les fl ags de qualité correspondants, mais une stratégie d'assurance qualité a été mise en œuvre et progressivement réajustée pour garantir la cohérence du contenu de la base de données et des produits dérivés de haute qualité. Deux versions de jeux de données agrégées pour les mers marginales européennes ont été publiées et utilisées pour calculer des climatologies régionales à haute résolution. Des jeux de données externes, la World Ocean Database de la NOAA et le jeu de données CORA du Copernicus Marine Service in situ Thematic Assembly Center, ont été intégrés aux collections de données de la DDC afin de maximiser la couverture des données et de minimiser l'erreur de cartographie. Les produits sont disponibles dans le catalogue de la DDC, accompagnés de documents d'information sur les produits contenant des spécifications sur la génération, les caractéristiques et l'utilisation des produits. Des identifiants d'objets numériques sont attribués aux produits et à la documentation correspondante afin de favoriser la transparence de la chaîne de production, en reconnaissant tous les acteurs impliqués, des fournisseurs de données aux producteurs d'informations. fournisseurs de données aux producteurs d'informations.
Published: 2021

31. Large-Scale Hydrological and Sediment Modeling in Nested Domains under Current and Changing Climate

Author: Alena Bartosova, Johan Strömqvist, René Capell, Alban de Lavenne, Berit Arheimer, and Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Subjects: Scale (ratio), Process (engineering), Sediment, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, 15. Life on land, Current (stream), Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, Water quality, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, General Environmental Science, Water Science and Technology, Civil and Structural Engineering
Abstract: Continental and global dynamic hydrological models have emerged recently as tools for large-scale analyses. One such tool is a dynamic process-based rainfall-runoff and water quality model called Hydrological Predictions for Environment (HYPE). This study presents and compares historical simulations of runoff and sediment concentrations for three nested-model domains using global, continental (Europe), and national (Sweden) catchment-based HYPE applications. Future impacts on runoff, soil moisture, and aridity from changing climate were assessed using the global and continental HYPE applications with three coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs). Simulated sediment concentrations varied considerably among the nested models in spatial patterns due to different data sources, whereas runoff values were more similar. Regardless of the variation, the global model was able to provide information on climate change impacts comparable to those from the continental and national models for hydrological indicators. Global hydrological models are thus valuable tools for, e.g.,first screenings of climate change effects and detection of spatial patterns. Comparison across nested domains demonstrates the significance of scale that needs to be considered when interpreting the impacts alongside with model performance. DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002078
Published: 2021
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32. An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models

Author: Hiroyuki Tsujino, David A. Bailey, Martin Vancoppenolle, José M. Rodriguez, Leandro Ponsoni, Ed Blockley, David Docquier, François Massonnet, David Schroeder, Daniel Feltham, Siobhan O'Farrell, Takahiro Toyoda, Neil C. Swart, Mitchell Bushuk, Jens Boldingh Debernard, A. B. Keen, Klaus Wyser, Steve Delhaye, UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain] (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] (ELI), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMet), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), European Project: 641727,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,PRIMAVERA(2015), European Project: 0834493(2008), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
Subjects: Climate Research, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Arctic sea ice, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Atmospheric sciences, Seasonal cycle, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Klimatforskning, Melt pond, Sea ice, Shortwave radiation, CMIP6, lcsh:Environmental sciences, Frazil ice, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology, lcsh:GE1-350, geography, Coupled model intercomparison project, geography.geographical_feature_category, Advection, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Sea ice models, Arctic ice pack, lcsh:Geology, 13. Climate action, Climate model
Abstract: We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice for 15 models submitted to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using new diagnostics that have not been available for previous model inter-comparisons. These diagnostics allow us to look beyond the standard metrics of ice cover and thickness to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in climate models in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. For the 1960–1989 multi-model mean, the dominant processes causing annual ice growth are basal growth and frazil ice formation, which both occur during the winter. The main processes by which ice is lost are basal melting, top melting and advection of ice out of the Arctic. The first two processes occur in summer, while the latter process is present all year. The sea ice budgets for individual models are strikingly similar overall in terms of the major processes causing ice growth and loss and in terms of the time of year during which each process is important. However, there are also some key differences between the models, and we have found a number of relationships between model formulation and components of the ice budget that hold for all or most of the CMIP6 models considered here. The relative amounts of frazil and basal ice formation vary between the models, and the amount of frazil ice formation is strongly dependent on the value chosen for the minimum frazil ice thickness. There are also differences in the relative amounts of top and basal melting, potentially dependent on how much shortwave radiation can penetrate through the sea ice into the ocean. For models with prognostic melt ponds, the choice of scheme may affect the amount of basal growth, basal melt and top melt, and the choice of thermodynamic scheme is important in determining the amount of basal growth and top melt. As the ice cover and mass decline during the 21st century, we see a shift in the timing of the top and basal melting in the multi-model mean, with more melt occurring earlier in the year and less melt later in the summer. The amount of basal growth reduces in the autumn, but it increases in the winter due to thinner sea ice over the course of the 21st century. Overall, extra ice loss in May–June and reduced ice growth in October–November are partially offset by reduced ice melt in August and increased ice growth in January–February. For the individual models, changes in the budget components vary considerably in terms of magnitude and timing of change. However, when the evolving budget terms are considered as a function of the changing ice state itself, behaviours common to all the models emerge, suggesting that the sea ice components of the models are fundamentally responding in a broadly consistent way to the warming climate. It is possible that this similarity in the model budgets may represent a lack of diversity in the model physics of the CMIP6 models considered here. The development of new observational datasets for validating the budget terms would help to clarify this.
Published: 2021
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33. Evaluation of surface runoff model hypothesis by multi-objective calibration using discharge and sediment data

Author: Göran Lindström, Berit Arheimer, Alban de Lavenne, Alena Bartosova, Johan Strömqvist, Charlotta Pers, de Lavenne, Alban, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), and Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
Subjects: Calibration (statistics), [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, Environmental science, Sediment, Soil science, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, Surface runoff, 6. Clean water, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: Conceptual hydrological models can move towards process-oriented modelling when addressing broader issues than flow modelling alone. For instance, water quality modelling generally requires understanding of pathways and travel times. However, conceptual modelling often relies on a calibration procedure of discharge at the outlet, which aggregates all processes at the catchment scale. As the number of parameters increases, such an approach can lead to model over-parametrisation issues. In this study we tested if adding a second kind of observation, specifically sediment data, can help distinguish surface runoff from total discharge. This new constraint relies on a hypothesis that in stream sediment concentrations are strongly influenced by surface runoff (through erosion and remobilisation). We tested our hypothesis by applying a multi-objective calibration (simulation performance on discharge and suspended sediment) to the World-Wide HYPE hydrological model (WWH) and we used this framework to evaluate new surface flow modelling routines. We gathered data for 111 catchments spread over the USA where both discharge and sediment observation were available at a daily step at locations suitable for WWH. Results show that in comparison to a single-objective calibration on discharge this multi-objective calibration enables a significant improvement on the simulation performance of suspended sediments without a significant impact on the performance of discharge. This illustrates the benefits of multi-objective calibration rather than using two calibrations made one after the other. In addition, this evaluation framework highlights the advantage of a new process description for surface runoff in the WWH model that relates soil moisture conditions to surface runoff ratio. The new surface runoff routine resulted in similar discharge performances as the original one but with fewer parameters, which reduce equifinality and can prevent inadequate model complexity in data-poor areas.
Published: 2021

34. Designing a Climate Service for Planning Climate Actions in Vulnerable Countries

Author: Lorna Little, Thomas Bosshard, Katharina Klehmet, Frida Gyllensvärd, Berit Arheimer, Christiana Photiadou, Maria Elenius, René Capell, Elin Sjökvist, Ilaria Gallo, Isabel Ribeiro, Léonard Santos, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), and Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, Service (systems architecture), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Process (engineering), 0207 environmental engineering, Co-development, 02 engineering and technology, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), lcsh:QC851-999, USable, 01 natural sciences, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, 11. Sustainability, co-development, 020701 environmental engineering, Adaptation (computer science), Environmental planning, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Service (business), climate and water indicators, Citizen journalism, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, user needs, web-based climate service, vulnerable countries, interactive online tools, 13. Climate action, Transparency (graphic), Key (cryptography), CORDEX ensembles, CORDEX ensembles, interactive online tools, lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology, Business
Abstract: The next generation of climate services needs not only tailoring to specific user needs but to provide, in addition, access to key information in a usable way that satisfies the needs of different users&rsquo, profiles, especially web-based services. Here, we present the outcomes from developing such a new interactive prototype. The service provides data for robust climate analysis to underpin decision-making when planning measures to compensate for climate impact. The goal is to facilitate the communication on climate information between climate modelling communities and adaptation or mitigation initiatives from vulnerable countries that are applying for funds from the Green Climate Fund (GCF). A participatory process was ensured during four workshops in four pilot countries, with an audience of national and international experts. During this process it was made clear that in all countries there is a strong need for knowledge in climate science, while in most countries there was also an increasing need of capacity in hydrological modelling and water management. The active interaction during the workshops was found necessary to facilitate the dialogue between service developers and users. Understanding the users, transparency on potentials and limitations of climate services together with capacity development in climate science and methods were required components in the development of the service.
Published: 2021
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35. Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble

Author: James M. Ciarlo, Nikolay Kadygrov, Filippo Giorgi, Grigory Nikulin, Robert Vautard, Marie-Estelle Demory, Clemens Schwingshackl, Guillaume Levavasseur, Silje Lund Sørland, Marit Sandstad, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Erika Coppola, Jana Sillmann, Rita Nogherotto, Geert Lenderink, Volker Wulfmeyer, Erik van Meijgaard, Fredrik Boberg, Emma Aalbers, Katharina Bülow, Claas Teichmann, Carley Iles, Lola Corre, Samuel Somot, Pierre Nabat, Erik Kjellström, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Météo-France, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat (GMGEC), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), and Universität Hohenheim
Subjects: global model, Atmospheric Science, Climate Research, Global model, Klimatforskning, climate impact indices, Geophysics, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Space and Planetary Science, General Circulation Model, Climatology, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Environmental science, CMIP5, EURO CORDEX, regional climate modeling, CMIP6
Abstract: International audience; This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within the EURO CORDEX project. Projections are available for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (55 members) at 0.11° resolution from 11 RCMs driven by eight global climate models (GCMs). The RCM ensemble results are compared with the driving CMIP5 global models but also with a subset of available last generation CMIP6 projections. Maximum warming is projected by all ensembles in Northern Europe in winter, along with a maximum precipitation increase there; in summer, maximum warming occurs in the Mediterranean and Southern European regions associated with a maximum precipitation decrease. The CMIP6 ensemble shows the largest signals, both for temperature and precipitation, along with the largest inter model spread. There is a high model consensus across the ensembles on an increase of extreme precipitation and drought frequency in the Mediterranean region. Extreme temperature indices show an increase of heat extremes and a decrease of cold extremes, with CMIP6 showing the highest values and EURO CORDEX the finest spatial details. This data set of unprecedented size and quality will provide the basis for impact assessment and climate service activities for the European region.
Published: 2021
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36. Estimating lockdown-induced European NO2 changes using satellite and surface observations and air quality models

Author: Barré, Jérôme, Petetin, Hervé, Colette, Augustin, Guevara, Marc, Peuch, Vincent-Henri, Rouil, Laurence, Engelen, Richard, Inness, Antje, Flemming, Johannes, Pérez García-Pando, Carlos, Bowdalo, Dene, Meleux, Frederik, Geels, Camilla, Christensen, Jesper, Gauss, Michael, Benedictow, Anna, Tsyro, Svetlana, Friese, Elmar, Struzewska, Joanna, Kaminski, Jacek, Douros, John, Timmermans, Renske, Robertson, Lennart, Adani, Mario, Jorba, Oriol, Joly, Mathieu, Kouznetsov, Rostislav, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Aarhus University [Aarhus], Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research (RIU), University of Cologne, INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION WARSAW POL, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Institute of Geophysics [Warsaw], Polska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile = Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), and Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, ddc:550
Abstract: This study provides a comprehensive assessment of NO2 changes across the main European urban areas induced by COVID-19 lockdowns using satellite retrievals from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5p satellite, surface site measurements, and simulations from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) regional ensemble of air quality models. Some recent TROPOMI-based estimates of changes in atmospheric NO2 concentrations have neglected the influence of weather variability between the reference and lockdown periods. Here we provide weather-normalized estimates based on a machine learning method (gradient boosting) along with an assessment of the biases that can be expected from methods that omit the influence of weather. We also compare the weather-normalized satellite-estimated NO2 column changes with weather-normalized surface NO2 concentration changes and the CAMS regional ensemble, composed of 11 models, using recently published estimates of emission reductions induced by the lockdown. All estimates show similar NO2 reductions. Locations where the lockdown measures were stricter show stronger reductions, and, conversely, locations where softer measures were implemented show milder reductions in NO2 pollution levels. Average reduction estimates based on either satellite observations (−23 %), surface stations (−43 %), or models (−32 %) are presented, showing the importance of vertical sampling but also the horizontal representativeness. Surface station estimates are significantly changed when sampled to the TROPOMI overpasses (−37 %), pointing out the importance of the variability in time of such estimates. Observation-based machine learning estimates show a stronger temporal variability than model-based estimates.
Published: 2021
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37. The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation

Author: Erika Coppola, Lidija Srnec, David Leutwyler, Volker Wulfmeyer, Thomas Frisius, Klaus Keuler, Josipa Milovac, Stefan Sobolowski, Paola Mercogliano, Merja Tölle, Pedro M. M. Soares, Paolo Stocchi, Heimo Truhetz, Torge Lorenz, Jesus Vergara-Temprado, Klaus Goergen, Alvaro Lavin-Gullon, Jesús Fernández, Antoinette Alias, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Geert Lenderink, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Øivind Hodnebrog, Ivonne Anders, Jan Erik Haugen, Filippo Giorgi, Lluis Fita, Goran Gašparac, Danijel Belušić, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Marianna Adinolfi, Cécile Caillaud, Rita M. Cardoso, Hylke de Vries, Armelle Reca Remedio, Sophie Bastin, Steven Chan, Stergios Kartsios, Nikolina Ban, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Eleni Katragkou, Douglas Maraun, Birthe Marie Rødssæteren Steensen, Bodo Ahrens, Mario Raffa, Mar Janne Zander, Christoph Schär, Emanuela Pichelli, Department of Atmospheric and Cryosphere Sciences [Innsbruck] (ACINN), Leopold Franzens Universität Innsbruck - University of Innsbruck, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), REgional Model and geo-Hydrological Impacts (REMHI), Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences [Frankfurt/Main] (IAU), Goethe-University Frankfurt am Main, Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum [Hamburg] (DKRZ), SPACE - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Instituto Dom Luiz, Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), Newcastle University [Newcastle], Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Santander Meteorology Group, Departamento de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de Cantabria [Santander]-Universidad de Cantabria [Santander], Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales [Buenos Aires] (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), Croatia Control Ltd., Institute of Bio- and Geosciences [Jülich] (IBG), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Juliers, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems (HPSC TerrSys), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Department of Meteorology and Climatology [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Brandenburg University of Technology [Cottbus – Senftenberg] (BTU), Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), Universidad de Cantabria [Santander]-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), University of Graz, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), CNR Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Center for Environmental Systems Research [Kassel] (CESR), Universität Kassel [Kassel], Institute of Physics and Meteorology [Stuttgart] (IPM), University of Hohenheim, Department of Environmental Sciences [Wageningen], Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Universidad de Cantabria, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET)-Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales [Buenos Aires] (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA), Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, University of Innsbruck, European Commission, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Karl-Franzens-Universität [Graz, Autriche]
Subjects: Convection, Kilometer-scale resolution, Atmospheric Science, Climate Research, Scale (ratio), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, Precipitation, Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management, 01 natural sciences, Klimatforskning, Kilometer, ddc:550, 020701 environmental engineering, health care economics and organizations, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, regional climate models, multi-model ensemble, high-resolution, precipitation, convection, WIMEK, Multi-model ensemble simulations, Resolution (electron density), Regional climate models, Summer season, Earth sciences, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Environmental science, Climate model, Scale (map), Intensity (heat transfer), Hydrologie en Kwantitatief Waterbeheer
Abstract: N. Ban et al., Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40% at 12 km to ∼ −3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales., Open access funding provided by University of Innsbruck and Medical University of Innsbruck., The ETH team, MZ, CNRM IPSL, ICTP, SMHI, Met-Office, DMI, CMCC, HZG, KNMI acknowledge funding from the HORIZON 2020 EUCP (European Climate Prediction System) project (https://www.eucp-project.eu, grant agreement No. 776613). AL-G acknowledges support by the Spanish government through grant BES-2016-078158 and MINECO/FEDER co-funded project MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R).
Published: 2021
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38. The community consultation process leading to the compilation of the 23 Unsolved Problems in Hydrology (UPH)

Author: Berit Arheimer, Maria Helena Ramos, Günter Blöschl, Christophe Cudennec, Elena Toth, Sol Agro et hydrosystème Spatialisation (SAS), AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, University of Technology, Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Department of Civil Chemical Environmental and Materials Engineering [Bologna] (DICAM), and University of Bologna
Subjects: Engineering, Hydrology (agriculture), business.industry, Consultation process, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, business, Environmental planning
Abstract: This contribution summarizes the steps of, and experiences with, a wide consultation process, led by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) that resulted in a list of 23 major unsolved scientific problems (UPH) in hydrology.Step 1) Launch of a YouTube video, outlining the purpose of the initiative and its vision.Step 2) Discussion via a LinkedIn group leading to a total of about 200 contributions and responses.Steps 3-4) Two ‘in-person’ meetings organised in April 2019 in Vienna: one (Step 3) at the EGU General Assembly (attended by about 60 scientists), in order to solicit additional questions, at the end of which about 260 candidate problems had been compiled; the second one (Step 4) at the Vienna Catchment Science Symposium (VCSS) at the Vienna University of Technology (attended by about 110 scientists), to sort, merge, split, reword and prioritise the proposed questions. Through an iteration of parallel sessions (repeated twice, mixing the participants) and a final plenary voting session, a list of 16 ‘gold‘ and 29 ‘silver‘ questions was identified.Step 5) Synthesis carried out by a small working group, involving representatives and members of IAHS, IAH, EGU and AGU, to consolidate, interpret and synthesise the questions, as well as to address potential biases in their selection that might have arisen from the composition of the participants at the meetings. The working group also pooled the questions into seven themes for clarity and communication. As a result of the synthesis process, the working group finally listed a set of 23 questions, presented in a community paper with over 200 authors (Blöschl et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1620507).The UPH initiative is a proof of concept that this kind of broad consultation process is actually feasible, and is well received by the hydrological scientific community. Thus, equally important as the final list, is the community-level learning process of such a consultation, involving a large number of hydrologists and the four main learned societies in the field.Consultations such as this could and should be repeated in the future for the benefit of our discipline, since providing common research subjects will increase the coherence of the scientific process in hydrology and promote the co-building of scientific strategies and synergy towards accelerated progress in hydrological sciences and applications.This PICO presentation gives a short overview of the consultation process and of each of the 23 questions, shares the experiences from the process and proposes some possible future steps.
Published: 2020
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39. Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation

Author: Julien Boé, Klaus Wyser, Christopher D. Roberts, Dian Putrasahan, Reindert J. Haarsma, Sybren Drijfhout, Katja Lohmann, Laurent Terray, Enrico Scoccimarro, Malcolm J. Roberts, Marie-Pierre Moine, Retish Senan, Sophie Valcke, Jon Seddon, Alessio Bellucci, Sci Univers CERFACS, URA 1875, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), CERFACS, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] (CMCC), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Laboratoire de Mécanique, Modélisation et Procédés Propres (M2P2), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-École Centrale de Marseille (ECM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CERFACS [Toulouse], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Subjects: trends, model evaluation, Climate Research, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Scale (ratio), Atmospheric circulation, atmospheric circulation, Climate change, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Klimatforskning, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, summer warming, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Term (time), Europe, climate change, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Western europe, Climatology, Environmental science, Climate model
Abstract: Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with a new generation of climate models and systematically explore the role of large-scale circulation in that context. As an ensemble, climate models in this study warm less over western Europe and warm more over eastern Europe than observed on the 1951–2014 period, but it is difficult to conclude this is directly due to systematic errors given the large potential impact of internal variability. These differences in temperature trends are explained to an important extent by an anti-correlation of sea level pressure trends over the North Atlantic / Europe domain between models and observations. The observed trend tends to warm (cool) western (eastern) Europe but the simulated trends generally have the opposite effect, both in new generation and past generation climate models. The differences between observed and simulated sea level pressure trends are likely the result of systematic model errors, which might also impact future climate projections. Neither a higher resolution nor the realistic representation of the evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice leads to a better simulation of sea level pressure trends.
Published: 2020
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40. A Vision for Hydrological Prediction

Author: Bart van den Hurk, Christel Prudhomme, David S. Richardson, Albrecht Weerts, Bastian Klein, Louise Arnal, Louise Crochemore, Shaun Harrigan, Hannah Cloke, David A. Lavers, Maria-Helena Ramos, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Linus Magnusson, Florian Pappenberger, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG), DELTARES (DELTARES), DELTARES, DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY UNIVERSITY OF READING GBR, Partenaires IRSTEA, and Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computer science, Hydrological modelling, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Flood forecasting, Weather forecasting, numerical weather prediction, 02 engineering and technology, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), users, lcsh:QC851-999, computer.software_genre, Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Numerical Weather Prediction, NumericalWeather prediction, media_common.cataloged_instance, Hydrometeorology, imprex, Water cycle, European union, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common, WIMEK, business.industry, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, Environmental resource management, IMPREX, Numerical weather prediction, hydrological modelling, 6. Clean water, 020801 environmental engineering, Earth system science, extreme hydrometeorological events, 13. Climate action, lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology, global earth observations, Hydrology, business, computer, Hydrologie en Kwantitatief Waterbeheer
Abstract: International audience; IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes (IMPREX) was a European Union Horizon 2020 project that ran from September 2015 to September 2019. IMPREX aimed to improve society's ability to anticipate and respond to future extreme hydrological events in Europe across a variety of uses in the water-related sectors (flood forecasting, drought risk assessment, agriculture, navigation, hydropower and water supply utilities). Through the engagement with stakeholders and continuous feedback between model outputs and water applications, progress was achieved in better understanding the way hydrological predictions can be useful to (and operationally incorporated into) problem-solving in the water sector. The work and discussions carried out during the project nurtured further reflections toward a common vision for hydrological prediction. In this article, we summarized the main findings of the IMPREX project within a broader overview of hydrological prediction, providing a vision for improving such predictions. In so doing, we first presented a synopsis of hydrological and weather forecasting, with a focus on medium-range to seasonal scales of prediction for increased preparedness. Second, the lessons learned from IMPREX were discussed. The key findings were the gaps highlighted in the global observing system of the hydrological cycle, the degree of accuracy of hydrological models and the techniques of post-processing to correct biases, the origin of seasonal hydrological skill in Europe and user requirements of hydrometeorological forecasts to ensure their appropriate use in decision-making models and practices. Last, a vision for how to improve these forecast systems/products in the future was expounded, including advancing numerical weather and hydrological models, improved earth monitoring and more frequent interaction between forecasters and users to tailor the forecasts to applications. We conclude that if these improvements can be implemented in the coming years, earth system and hydrological modelling will become more skillful, thus leading to socioeconomic benefits for the citizens of Europe and beyond.
Published: 2020
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41. Can Continental Models Convey Useful Seasonal Hydrologic Information at the Catchment Scale?

Author: Louise Crochemore, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Maria-Helena Ramos, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), and Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
Subjects: Service (systems architecture), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Scale (ratio), Calibration (statistics), media_common.quotation_subject, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Internal model, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, 02 engineering and technology, hydrologie, 01 natural sciences, Catchment scale, modèle continental, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Hydrology (agriculture), Quality (business), hydroclimate services, seasonal information, Set (psychology), User needs, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology, media_common, business.industry, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, Environmental resource management, 15. Life on land, streamflow forecasting, bassin versant, 020801 environmental engineering, catchment applications, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, business
Abstract: Climatic variations can have a significant impact on a number of water-related sectors. Managing such variations through accurate predictions is thus crucial. Continental hydro-climate services have recently received attention to address various user needs. However, predictions for months ahead can be limited at catchment scale, highlighting the need for data tailoring. Here, we address how seasonal forecasts from continental services can be used to address user needs at the catchment scale. We compare a continentally-calibrated process-based model (E-HYPE) and a catchment-specific parsimonious model (GR6J) to forecast streamflow in a set of French catchments.This work provides insights into UPH 20 (How can we disentangle and reduce model structural/parameter/input uncertainty in hydrological prediction?) by proposing a skill assessment framework that isolates gains from hydrological model forcings and forecast initialisation. Our results show that a good estimation of the hydrologic states, such as soil moisture or lake levels, prior to the prediction is the most important factor in obtaining accurate streamflow predictions in both setups. We also show that the spread in internal model states varies largely between the two systems, reflecting the differences in their setups and calibration strategies, and highlighting that caution is needed before extracting hydrologic variables other than streamflow.This work also provides insights into UPH 21 (How can the (un)certainty in hydrological predictions be communicated to decision makers and the general public?). Despite the expected high performance from the catchment setup against observed streamflow, the continental setup can, in some catchments, match the catchment-specific setup for 3-month aggregations and when looking at statistics relative to model climatology, such as anomalies. Nevertheless, differences in the setups can result in different uncertainties for variables such as soil water content.
Published: 2020
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42. Biogeophysical impacts of forestation in Europe: first results from the LUCAS (Land Use and Climate Across Scales) regional climate model intercomparison

Author: Davin, Édouard L., Rechid, Diana, Breil, Marcus, Cardoso, Rita M., Coppola, Erika, Hoffmann, Peter, Jach, Lisa L., Katragkou, Eleni, de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie, Radtke, Kai, Raffa, Mario, Soares, Pedro M. M., Sofiadis, Giannis, Strada, Susanna, Strandberg, Gustav, Tölle, Merja H., Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten, Wulfmeyer, Volker, Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Institute of Physics and Meteorology [Stuttgart] (IPM), University of Hohenheim, Department of Meteorology and Climatology [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Brandenburg University of Technology [Cottbus – Senftenberg] (BTU), Faculdade de Ciências [Lisboa], Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Institut für Physik und Meteorologie [Stuttgart] (IPM), Universität Hohenheim, ANR-11-LABX-0034,BASC,Biodiversité, Agroécosystèmes, Société, Climat(2011), Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: lcsh:Geology, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Earth sciences, Climate Research, lcsh:Dynamic and structural geology, lcsh:QE500-639.5, lcsh:QE1-996.5, ddc:550, lcsh:Q, lcsh:Science, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Klimatforskning
Abstract: The Land Use and Climate Across Scales Flagship Pilot Study (LUCAS FPS) is a coordinated community effort to improve the integration of land use change (LUC) in regional climate models (RCMs) and to quantify the biogeophysical effects of LUC on local to regional climate in Europe. In the first phase of LUCAS, nine RCMs are used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of re-/afforestation over Europe: two idealized experiments representing respectively a non-forested and a maximally forested Europe are compared in order to quantify spatial and temporal variations in the regional climate sensitivity to forestation. We find some robust features in the simulated response to forestation. In particular, all models indicate a year-round decrease in surface albedo, which is most pronounced in winter and spring at high latitudes. This results in a winter warming effect, with values ranging from +0.2 to +1 K on average over Scandinavia depending on models. However, there are also a number of strongly diverging responses. For instance, there is no agreement on the sign of temperature changes in summer with some RCMs predicting a widespread cooling from forestation (well below −2 K in most regions), a widespread warming (around +2 K or above in most regions) or a mixed response. A large part of the inter-model spread is attributed to the representation of land processes. In particular, differences in the partitioning of sensible and latent heat are identified as a key source of uncertainty in summer. Atmospheric processes, such as changes in incoming radiation due to cloud cover feedbacks, also influence the simulated response in most seasons. In conclusion, the multi-model approach we use here has the potential to deliver more robust and reliable information to stakeholders involved in land use planning, as compared to results based on single models. However, given the contradictory responses identified, our results also show that there are still fundamental uncertainties that need to be tackled to better anticipate the possible intended or unintended consequences of LUC on regional climates.
Published: 2020
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43. Accounting for discharge simulation performances and observation quality for modelling sediment at global scale

Author: Alban de Lavenne, Alena Bartosova, Johan Strömqvist, Berit Arheimer, de Lavenne, Alban, and Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Subjects: [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, 14. Life underwater, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, 6. Clean water, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: Water quality modelling is very often constrained beforehand by the performance of discharge modelling. When the model is set up at global scale, this discharge performance usually greatly varies in space and can therefore be a limiting factor in many regions around the globe. Besides discharge performances, the quality of the observations themselves can also be highly heterogeneous in space and among datasets. Modeller then has to find a compromise between being restrictive on the quality of his dataset or having a good spatio-temporal representativeness of the various hydrological conditions at global scale. This often relies on subjective thresholds. This work proposed a more objective calibration strategy that aims to consider both aspects explicitly: observation quality and model performance on discharge. It leads to the construction of two scores that are assigned to each water quality station quantifying their reliability for model calibration and evaluation. The average of those two scores is then used as a weight in the objective function to emphasise the training on the most reliable stations. The strategy is implemented for sediment modelling using the WW-HYPE model (Arheimer et al., 2019) at global scale. The score on discharge simulation performance is based on the regionalisation of the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency that is spatially interpolated at every sediment monitoring stations using inverse Ghosh distance weighting (de Lavenne et al., 2016). The score on the observation quality is based on the location of the station with respect to the catchment outlet and on the amount of data. A multi-objective calibration is performed to optimise parameters on two global databases, one on long terms sediment loads (730 stations) and one on sediment concentrations time series (1440 stations). The sensitivity of the model to this calibration strategy is analysed according to model performances and model outputs, such as sediment loads at global scale, in order to discuss the importance of considering this heterogeneity of the reliability of monitoring stations. References Arheimer, B., Pimentel, R., Isberg, K., Crochemore, L., Andersson, J. C. M., Hasan, A., and Pineda, L. (2019), Global catchment modelling using World-Wide HYPE (WWH), open data and stepwise parameter estimation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2019-111. de Lavenne, A., J. O. Skøien, C. Cudennec, F. Curie, and F. Moatar (2016), Transferring measured discharge time series: Large-scale comparison of Top-kriging to geomorphology-based inverse modeling, Water Resour. Res., 52, 5555–5576, doi:10.1002/2016WR018716.
Published: 2020

44. A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean

Author: Elizabeth J. Kendon, Samiro Khodayar, E. van Meijgaard, Sebastian Knist, Ivonne Anders, Filippo Giorgi, Danijel Belušić, Samuel Somot, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Lidija Srnec, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Pedro M. M. Soares, Stefan Sobolowski, Emanuela Pichelli, Merja Tölle, Stergios Kartsios, Heimo Truhetz, Øivind Hodnebrog, Quentin Fumière, Rita M. Cardoso, Mario Raffa, Louis Marelle, Sophie Bastin, Michal Belda, Ivan Güttler, Petter Lind, T. Halenka, Silvio Davolio, Klaus Goergen, Alvaro Lavin-Gullon, Paolo Stocchi, Nikolina Ban, Jesús Fernández, Josipa Milovac, Torge Lorenz, Francesca Raffaele, Bodo Ahrens, T. Raub, Christoph Schär, Gunnar Myhre, Douglas Maraun, Burkhardt Rockel, M. Piazza, Erika Coppola, Harald Kunstmann, Andreas Dobler, Kevin Sieck, H. de Vries, Daniela Jacob, D. Heinzeller, Eleni Katragkou, Lluis Fita, Robert Vautard, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics [Vienna] (ZAMG), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), SPACE - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Faculty of Mathematics and Physics [Praha/Prague], Charles University [Prague] (CU), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Troposphärenforschung (IMK-TRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima (ISAC), National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Grupo de Meteorología de Santander, Universidad de Cantabria [Santander]-Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET)-Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales [Buenos Aires] (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute of Bio- and Geosciences [Jülich] (IBG), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Juliers, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems (HPSC TerrSys), Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), Department of Meteorology and Climatology [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institut für Geographie [Augsburg], Universität Augsburg [Augsburg], Meteorologisches Institut [Bonn], Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Institut für Physik und Meteorologie [Stuttgart] (IPM), Universität Hohenheim, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima [Bologna] (ISAC), Klimatologie, Klimadynamik und Klimawandel [Giessen], Institut für Geographie [Giessen], Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen = Justus Liebig University (JLU)-Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen = Justus Liebig University (JLU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR-11-BS56-0005,IODA-MED,Observation et Assimilation de Données:: Des systèmes Innovants pour les événements météorologiques intenses en MEDiterranée(2011), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche [Roma] (CNR), Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Karl-Franzens-Universität [Graz, Autriche], Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU)-Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Croatian Science Foundation, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), European Commission, German Research Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, Research Council of Norway, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal), Department of Energy and Climate Change (UK), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (UK), Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (Czech Republic), Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales [Buenos Aires] (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA)-Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and University of Graz
Subjects: Ensemble models, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Event (relativity), Forecast skill, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Physics::Geophysics, ddc:550, Climate applications, Precipitation, regional climate, downscaling, convection permittin model, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Convection-permitting, Ensemble forecasting, Mode (statistics), Orography, Test case, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Downscaling
Abstract: This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Advances in Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling, consisting of papers that focus on the evaluation, climate change assessment, and feedback processes in kilometer-scale simulations and observations., A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. This initiative aims to build first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both “weather-like” (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and “climate” (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18–21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land–ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for the Austrian event, which was weakly forced by the large-scale flow. Though the ensemble correlation skill score is still quite high (0.80). The preliminary results illustrate both the promise and the challenges that convection permitting modeling faces and make a strong argument for an ensemble-based approach to investigating high impact convective processes., IG and LS have been supported by the Croatian Science Foundation (HrZZ) project CARE (no. 2831). JF acknowledges support by the Spanish R + D programme through MINECO/FEDER co-funded project INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R). AL-G is supported by the Spanish government though grant BES-2016-078158 and MINECO/FEDER co-funded project MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R). JM and KW-S gratefully acknowledge the support by the German Science Foundation (DFG) through project FOR 1695. DM, MP, and HT gratefully acknowledge the support received via the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) project NHCM-2 (no. P24758-N29) and the projects HighEnd:Extremes and EASICLIM, funded by the Austrian Climate Research Programme (ACRP) of the Klima- und Energiefonds (nos. KR13AC6K10981 and KR16AC0K13160, respectively). SS and TL acknowledge the support of NOTUR project no. NN9280K and the Research Council of Norway and its basic institute support of their strategic project on Climate Services. RMC and PMMS gratefully acknowledge the support of the SOLAR project (PTDC/GEOMET/7078/2014) financed by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. EJ Kendon gratefully acknowledges funding from the Joint Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). S. Khodayar research is supported by the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research). Support of Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic for funding the participation in Euro-CORDEX activities via the scheme INTER-TRANSFER under the Grant no. LTT17007. Funding from the Research Council of Norway through the SUPER (Grant no. 250573) and HYPRE (Grant no. 243942) projects.
Published: 2020
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45. Impact of Higher Spatial Atmospheric Resolution on Precipitation Extremes Over Land in Global Climate Models

Author: Dian Putrasahan, Julien Boé, Laurent Terray, A. Baker, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Reinhard Schiemann, Rein Haarsma, Lisa V. Alexander, Malcolm J. Roberts, Alessio Bellucci, Enrico Scoccimarro, Torben Koenigk, Sophie Valcke, Marie-Pierre Moine, Benoit Vanniere, Jon Seddon, Margot Bador, Katja Lohmann, Climate Change Research Centre [Sydney] (CCRC), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), CERFACS [Toulouse], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] (CMCC), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), NCAS-Climate [Reading], University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), CECI, CERFACS / CNRS (CECI), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Mécanique, Modélisation et Procédés Propres (M2P2), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-École Centrale de Marseille (ECM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), and CERFACS
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Climate Research, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Resolution (electron density), Grid, 01 natural sciences, Klimatforskning, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Space and Planetary Science, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, General Circulation Model, Climatology, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Precipitation, Image resolution, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: International audience; Finer grids in global climate models could lead to an improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes. We assess the influence on model performance of increasing spatial resolution by evaluating pairs of high-and low-resolution forced atmospheric simulations from six global climate models (generally the latest CMIP6 version) on a common 1°× 1°grid. The differences in tuning between the lower and higher resolution versions are as limited as possible, which allows the influence of higher resolution to be assessed exclusively. We focus on the 1985-2014 climatology of annual extremes of daily precipitation over global land, and models are compared to observations from different sources (i.e., in situ-based and satellite-based) to enable consideration of observational uncertainty. Finally, we address regional features of model performance based on four indices characterizing different aspects of precipitation extremes. Our analysis highlights good agreement between models that precipitation extremes are more intense at higher resolution. We find that the spread among observations is substantial and can be as large as intermodel differences, which makes the quantitative evaluation of model performance difficult. However, consistently across the four precipitation extremes indices that we investigate, models often show lower skill at higher resolution compared to their corresponding lower resolution version. Our findings suggest that increasing spatial resolution alone is not sufficient to obtain a systematic improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes, and other improvements (e.g., physics and tuning) may be required.
Published: 2020
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46. Editorial - Towards FAIR and SQUARE hydrological data

Author: H. Lins, Stefan Uhlenbrook, Christophe Cudennec, Berit Arheimer, Sol Agro et hydrosystème Spatialisation (SAS), AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), US Geological Survey [Austin], United States Geological Survey [Reston] (USGS), International Water Management Institute [CGIAR, Sri Lanka] (IWMI), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), and Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Subjects: Core component, 0208 environmental biotechnology, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, 02 engineering and technology, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, 020801 environmental engineering, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Character (mathematics), Hydrology (agriculture), [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Square (unit), Statistical physics, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Water Science and Technology, Mathematics
Abstract: Data issues were, are, and will remain a core component of the hydrological sciences. Their character and influence on the way the discipline is practiced may vary through time, but their intrinsic...
Published: 2020
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47. Six challenges to successfully inform hydropower operation by improved hydrometeorological forecasts

Author: Castelletti, A, Giuliani, M, Ramos, M, Pulido-Velazquez, M, Gustafsson, D, Macian-Sorribes, H, Cassagnole, M, Crochemore, L, Pechlivanidis, I, Thirel, Guillaume, Politecnico di Milano [Milan] (POLIMI), CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) (CEA-DES (ex-DEN)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), and Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Subjects: [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation
Abstract: International audience; Hydropower is facing considerable global change-related challenges from the point of view of both hydrological conditions, e.g., water availability and frequency of extremes events, and of energy market conditions, e.g., partial or total liberalization of the market and increasing share of renewable power sources. In this evolving context, hydropower reservoir operations might benefit from the information coming from hydro-meteorological prediction over a broad range of time scales, from short-term to seasonal and decadal time horizons, to combine strategic planning decisions on the medium- to long- term with daily and sub-daily operational decisions. In this talk, we explore potential advantages and concomitant challenges of informing hydropower operation with improved hydro-meteorological forecasts with a focus on Alpine hydropower systems. Specifically, we identified six fundamental, still unreplied questions: How much is the max potential improvement by streamflow forecast? How to find the most skillful lead time? How much is the seasonal forecast value as revenue for a hydropower company? How does forecast quality relate to forecast value? How does forecast informed operations change downstream hydrological patterns? Will climate change expand or shrink this potential? To address these questions, we developed a machine-learning based procedure to identify the most valuable forecast to an Alpine hydropower company and to quantify the economic benefit (value) of using the seasonal hydrological forecasts generated by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) using the E-HYPE model as their contribution to increasing the annual company revenue. Lastly, insights from similar studies conducted across different European case studies will be reported.
Published: 2019

48. D8.2 Hydropower Policy Brief: The benefits of informing hydropower reservoir operations with climate and inflow forecasts

Author: Ramos, Maria-Helena, Castelletti, Andrea, Pulido- Velasquez, Manuel, Giuliani, Matteo, Macian-Sorribes, Hector, Gustafsson, David, Cassagnole, Manon, Thirel, Guillaume, Crochemore, Louise, Pechlivanidis, Ilias, Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Politecnico di Milano [Milan] (POLIMI), Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Department of Bioengineering [Politecnico Milano], Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), IRSTEA, and European Project: 641811,H2020,H2020-WATER-2014-two-stage,IMPREX(2015)
Subjects: [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation
Abstract: This report presents the hydropower policy-brief: “The benefits of informing hydropower reservoir operations with climate and inflow forecasts”. This policy brief summarizes the key results and recommendations from research carried out during the IMPREX project on four case studies representative of typical hydropower systems encountered in Europe. Based on strong collaborations with stakeholders and operational managers from European energy production companies, proof-of-concept demonstrators were developed to show the value of hydro-meteorological forecasts for the hydropower sector. Key messages and recommendations are presented in this policy brief.
Published: 2019

49. The sensitivity of sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasts to meteorological forcing quality, modelled hydrology and the initial hydrological conditions

Author: Arnal, Louise, Cloke, Hannah, Magnusson, Linus, Klein, Bastian, Meissner, Dennis, de Tomas, Alberto, Hunink, Johannes, Pechlivanidis, Ilias, Crochemore, Louise, Suarez, Sara, Solera, Abel, Andreu, Joaquín, Knight, Jeff, Liggins, Felicity, Weerts, Albrecht, Ramos, Maria-Helena, Thirel, Guillaume, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), University of Reading (UOR), FutureWater, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), DELTARES (DELTARES), DELTARES, Hydrosystèmes continentaux anthropisés : ressources, risques, restauration (UR HYCAR), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), IRSTEA, European Project: 641811,H2020,H2020-WATER-2014-two-stage,IMPREX(2015), Thirel, Guillaume, and IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes - IMPREX - - H20202015-10-01 - 2019-09-30 - 641811 - VALID
Subjects: [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.HY] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [INFO.INFO-MO] Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, [INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation
Abstract: This report presents the sensitivity of seasonal discharge forecasting to meteorological forcing quality, modelled hydrology and initial hydrological conditions and the dependency of the skillto the basin characteristics. The analyses are focused on key sectoral applications of IMPREX.
Published: 2019

50. Holocene quantitative pollen-based vegetation reconstructions in Europe for climate modelling : LandClim II

Author: Githumbi, Esther, Fyfe, R., Kjellström, E, Lindström, J., Lu, Z, Mazier, Florence, Nielsen, A, Poska, Anneli, Smith, Barbara, Strandberg, G, Sugita, S., Zhang, Quiong, Gaillard, M.J., York Institute for Tropical Ecosystems, Environment Department, Wentworth Way, University of York [York, UK], School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Plymouth] (SoGEES), Plymouth University, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Mathematical Statistics, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Géographie de l'environnement (GEODE), Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès (UT2J)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute of Geology, University of Bern, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Linnaeus University, and Gil, Emilie
Subjects: [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Holocene, REVEALS model, [SHS.GEO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography, climate
Abstract: International audience; "Understanding land use and land cover (LULC) change through time is an important aspect when attempting to interpret human-environment interactions through time. Palaeoenvironmental techniques have been crucial in bridging this gap by providing information that has been used to estimate climate change, vegetation change, sea level change etc. through time using a variety of proxies. Producing quantitative land-cover reconstructions has been an aim and a challenge with several methods attempted during the decades. In this project, we use the REVEALS model has been tested and validated in several regions of the world.We use REVEALS-based quantitative reconstructions of vegetation change to investigate the biogeochemical and biogeophysical forcings of land-cover change on climate. In the first phase of this project, LandClim I, quantitative vegetation reconstructions were produced for Europe (Mediterranean area excluded) focusing on five time windows of the Holocene between 6ka BP and present. The results from a regional climate model showed that the impact of the reconstructed LULC between 6 ka and 0.2 ka BP via biogeophysical forcing varied geographically and seasonally. We present the REVEALS quantitative pollen-based vegetation reconstruction from the ongoing second phase of the project LandClim II “Quantification of the biogeophysical and biogeochemical forcings from anthropogenic deforestation on regional Holocene climate in Europe”. This reconstruction covers entire Europe and is transient over the Holocene with a time resolution of 500 years between 11.2 and 0.7ka BP, and 100 to 300 years from 0.7ka BP to modern time."
Published: 2019

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