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A fundamental problem in the regulatory evaluation of a therapy is assessing whether the benefit outweighs the associated risks. This work proposes designing a trial that assesses a composite endpoint consisting of benefit and risk, hence, making the core of the design of the study, to assess benefit and risk. The proposed benefit risk measure consists of efficacy measure(s) and a risk measure that is based on a composite score obtained from pre-defined adverse events of interest (AEI). This composite score incorporates full aspects of adverse events of interest (i.e. the incidence, severity, and duration of the events). We call this newly proposed score the AEI composite score. After specifying the priorities between the components of the composite endpoint, a win-statistic (i.e. win ratio, win odds, or net benefit) is used to assess the difference between treatments in this composite endpoint. The power and sample size requirements of such a trial design are explored via simulation. Finally, using Dupixent published adult study results, we show how we can design a paediatric trial where the primary outcome is a composite of prioritized outcomes consisting of efficacy endpoints and the AEI composite score endpoint. The resulting trial design can potentially substantially reduce sample size compared to a trial designed to assess the co-primary efficacy endpoints, therefore it may address the challenge of slow enrollment and patient availability for paediatric studies.

Chronic diseases often require continuing care, and early response to treatment can be an important predictor of long-term efficacy. Often, an apparent lack of early efficacy may lead to discontinuation of treatment, with the decision made either by clinicians or by the patients themselves. Thus, it is important to determine whether or not a desired early outcome corresponds to a beneficial long-term effect of continuing treatment, and conversely, whether or not the absence of such an outcome corresponds to a lack of long-term benefit. However, primary clinical trials of such treatments are not commonly designed to answer such questions, for example by randomizing subjects to continue or discontinue treatment after observing early outcomes. We propose an approach to estimating the effect of continuing treatment after observing early outcomes using data from randomized controlled trials in which treatment discontinuation was not part of the design. Our approach estimates average causal effects of continuing treatment on long-term outcomes in principal strata defined by the potential early outcomes under treatment. For illustration, we estimate the effects of continuing to take gaboxadol to treat insomnia conditional on early improvement in subjective sleep quality after two nights, based on a standard parallel-arm randomized controlled trial.

Background V114 (15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine [PCV15]) and a 20-valent PCV (PCV20) are approved for adults (≥18 years) in the United States. We present methodologies to indirectly compare immune responses to V114 versus PCV20. Research design and methods Indirect treatment comparison and matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) were performed to estimate opsonophagocytic activity (OPA) geometric mean titer (GMT) ratios of V114/PCV20 at 30 days post-vaccination with PCV13 as common comparator for 13 serotypes (STs) shared with a 13-valent PCV (PCV13) among pneumococcal vaccine-naive adults aged ≥60 years. Data from three V114 studies were pooled (V114, N = 2,196; PCV13, N = 843). In the MAIC analysis, data were reweighted, matching participant age and sex in NCT03760146 (PCV20, N = 1,507; PCV13, N = 1,490). Results The lower bound of V114/PCV20 OPA GMT ratio for all PCV13 STs is greater than the prespecified 0.5 non-inferiority margin and those for five PCV13 STs (3, 6A, 6B, 18C, and 23F) are greater than the prespecified 1.2 superiority margin. V114 was associated with 77% greater OPA GMT for ST3 versus PCV20. Conclusion V114 was non-inferior to PCV20 for all PCV13 STs and statistically superior for five PCV13 STs.

Background Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is associated with substantial healthcare resource use, particularly when recipients develop cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection. Letermovir reduced post-HSCT CMV infection risk compared with placebo in a previous phase III trial. This analysis evaluated letermovir’s impact on re-hospitalization post-transplant. Methods Using data from a phase III, multicenter, randomized clinical trial (NCT02137772, registered May 14, 2014), this study assessed CMV-associated and all-cause re-hospitalizations at weeks 14, 24, and 48 post-transplant among recipients of letermovir versus placebo. Unstandardized re-hospitalization rates and days were reported; standardized rates and days were estimated accounting for censoring due to death or early study discontinuation. Results Unstandardized rates (95% confidence interval [CI]) of all-cause re-hospitalization in letermovir versus placebo recipients at weeks 14, 24, and 48 were 36.6% (31.4–42.1) versus 47.6% (39.9–55.4), 49.2% (43.7–54.8) versus 55.9% (48.1–63.5), and 55.7% (50.1–61.2) versus 60.6% (52.8–68.0), respectively. Unstandardized mean total duration (95% CI) of re-hospitalization with letermovir versus placebo at weeks 14, 24, and 48 were 7.6 (5.9–9.8) versus 11.3 (8.6–14.8), 13.9 (11.2–17.2) versus 15.5 (11.9–20.1), and 18.0 (14.8–21.9) versus 20.7 (15.8–27.1) days, respectively. Similar results were found in CMV-associated re-hospitalization outcomes and standardized rates and days of all-cause re-hospitalizations. Conclusions In this post-hoc analysis, letermovir was associated with lower rates of CMV-associated and all-cause re-hospitalizations with a shorter length of stay (especially within the first 14 weeks post-transplant). Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41669-021-00264-9.

733 Background: VHL disease is a rare hereditary condition that causes abnormal tumor growth in multiple organs, including renal cell carcinoma (RCC), central nervous system (CNS) hemangioblastomas (Hb), pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNET), and other tumors. Repeated surgeries are often required due to ongoing tumor recurrences and can lead to complications such as chronic kidney disease, pancreatic insufficiency, and neurological deficit. Belzutifan is a hypoxia-inducible factor inhibitor approved in the US for the treatment of VHL-associated RCC, CNS Hb, or pNET not requiring immediate surgery. This study aimed to quantify the annual rate and costs of VHL-related surgeries and surgical complications before and after belzutifan initiation. Methods: Surgeries were observed during the periods before and after belzutifan initiation in the single-arm phase 2 LITESPARK-004 trial (NCT03401788) among adults with VHL-RCC. Rates of RCC surgeries were obtained by fitting exponential survival models to: time from treatment initiation to the next renal surgery; and time (looking backward) from treatment initiation to the most recent renal surgery before treatment. Rates of surgeries related to other VHL manifestations were calculated as number of surgeries divided by person-years at risk, using all available post-treatment follow up (151 person-years; median [range] per patient: 29.2 [4.2-37.5] months) and equivalent person-years in the pre-treatment period. Complication risks per surgery and unit costs of surgeries and complications were obtained from a retrospective study on VHL within the Optum Clinformatics Data Mart (2000-2020). Annual per-patient costs of surgeries and complications were estimated in 2020 US dollars over the pre- and post-treatment periods from a US third-party payer perspective. Results: Among trial participants (N=61), the rate of RCC surgeries (surgeries/person-year) decreased 87% (0.108 to 0.014) after belzutifan initiation. The rate of other surgeries decreased 98% (0.265 to 0.007), with CNS Hb surgeries decreasing from 0.185 to 0.007, pNET surgeries from 0.013 to 0, adrenal lesion surgeries from 0.007 to 0, and retinal Hb surgeries from 0.060 to 0. Belzutifan was accordingly estimated to reduce per-patient average annual costs of surgeries and complications from $57,259 to $2,536. Conclusions: Healthcare costs of surgeries and surgical complications are substantial among patients with VHL-RCC. In a trial-based cost-consequence analysis, belzutifan was estimated to decrease annual surgery and complication costs by 96%, based on observed reductions in VHL-related surgeries. [Table: see text]

Due to differential treatment responses of patients to pharmacotherapy, drug development and practice in medicine are concerned with personalized medicine, which includes identifying subgroups of population that exhibit differential treatment effect. For time-to-event data, available methods only focus on detecting and testing treatment-by-covariate interactions and may not consider multiplicity. In this work, we introduce the Bayesian credible subgroups approach for time-to-event endpoints. It provides two bounding subgroups for the true benefiting subgroup: one which is likely to be contained by the benefiting subgroup and one which is likely to contain the benefiting subgroup. A personalized treatment effect is estimated by two common measures of survival time: the hazard ratio and restricted mean survival time. We apply the method to identify benefiting subgroups in a case study of prostate carcinoma patients and a simulated large clinical dataset.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to draw on the practical experience from the PROTECT BR case studies and make recommendations regarding the application of a number of methodologies and visual representations for benefit–risk assessment. Methods Eight case studies based on the benefit–risk balance of real medicines were used to test various methodologies that had been identified from the literature as having potential applications in benefit–risk assessment. Recommendations were drawn up based on the results of the case studies. Results A general pathway through the case studies was evident, with various classes of methodologies having roles to play at different stages. Descriptive and quantitative frameworks were widely used throughout to structure problems, with other methods such as metrics, estimation techniques and elicitation techniques providing ways to incorporate technical or numerical data from various sources. Similarly, tree diagrams and effects tables were universally adopted, with other visualisations available to suit specific methodologies or tasks as required. Every assessment was found to follow five broad stages: (i) Planning, (ii) Evidence gathering and data preparation, (iii) Analysis, (iv) Exploration and (v) Conclusion and dissemination. Conclusions Adopting formal, structured approaches to benefit–risk assessment was feasible in real-world problems and facilitated clear, transparent decision-making. Prior to this work, no extensive practical application and appraisal of methodologies had been conducted using real-world case examples, leaving users with limited knowledge of their usefulness in the real world. The practical guidance provided here takes us one step closer to a harmonised approach to benefit–risk assessment from multiple perspectives. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Background The PROTECT Benefit–Risk group is dedicated to research in methods for continuous benefit–risk monitoring of medicines, including the presentation of the results, with a particular emphasis on graphical methods. Methods A comprehensive review was performed to identify visuals used for medical risk and benefit–risk communication. The identified visual displays were grouped into visual types, and each visual type was appraised based on five criteria: intended audience, intended message, knowledge required to understand the visual, unintentional messages that may be derived from the visual and missing information that may be needed to understand the visual. Results Sixty-six examples of visual formats were identified from the literature and classified into 14 visual types. We found that there is not one single visual format that is consistently superior to others for the communication of benefit–risk information. In addition, we found that most of the drawbacks found in the visual formats could be considered general to visual communication, although some appear more relevant to specific formats and should be considered when creating visuals for different audiences depending on the exact message to be communicated. Conclusion We have arrived at recommendations for the use of visual displays for benefit–risk communication. The recommendation refers to the creation of visuals. We outline four criteria to determine audience–visual compatibility and consider these to be a key task in creating any visual. Next we propose specific visual formats of interest, to be explored further for their ability to address nine different types of benefit–risk analysis information. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Introduction The conduct of structured benefit-risk assessment (BRA) of pharmaceutical products is a key area of interest for regulatory agencies and the pharmaceutical industry. However, the acceptance of a standardized approach and implementation are slow. Statisticians play major roles in these organizations, and have a great opportunity to be involved and drive the shaping of future BRA. Method We performed a literature search of recent reviews and initiatives assessing BRA methodologies, and grouped them to assist those new to BRA in learning, understanding, and choosing methodologies. We summarized the key points and discussed the impact of this emerging field on various stakeholders, particularly statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry. Results We provide introductory, essential, special interest, and further information and initiatives materials that direct readers to the most relevant materials, which were published between 2000 and 2013. Based on recommendations in these materials we supply a toolkit of advocated BRA methodologies. Discussion Despite initiatives promoting these methodologies, there are still barriers, one of which being the lack of a consensus on the most appropriate methodologies among stakeholders. However, this opens up opportunities, for statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry especially, to champion appropriate BRA methodology use throughout the pharmaceutical product lifecycle. Conclusions This article may serve as a starting point for discussions and to reach a mutual consensus for methodology selection in a particular situation. Regulators and pharmaceutical industry should continue to collaborate to develop and take forward BRA methodologies, and by clear communication develop a mutual understanding of the key issues. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Domperidone and metoclopramide are prokinetics commonly prescribed off-label to infants and younger children in an attempt to treat gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms. Another prokinetic drug, cisapride, was used but withdrawn in 2000 in the United Kingdom because of serious arrhythmic adverse events. Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency issued safety warnings for domperidone in May 2012 and restricted its indications. We report here national primary care prescribing trends and safety signals of these drugs in children.We used data from the General Practice Research Database between 1990 and 2006 for children18 years. Descriptive statistics and Poisson regressions were performed to characterise prescribing trends. We examined safety signals in nested case-control studies.The proportion of children2 years old being prescribed one of the medications doubled during the study period. Prescriptions of domperidone increased 10-fold, mainly following the withdrawal of cisapride in 2000. Prescriptions of metoclopramide did not change significantly. Despite the increase in prescriptions of domperidone, no new safety signals were identified.These data showed dramatic changes in prescribing of cisapride and domperidone despite the lack of good-quality supporting evidence. It is possible that these prescribing trends were influenced by published guidelines. Even if produced without robust efficacy and safety evidence, published guidelines can influence clinicians and consequently affect prescribing. Therefore, improving the evidence base on prokinetics to inform future guidelines is vital. The lack of new safety signals during this period would support the development of suitable powered clinical studies.

In existing benefit-risk assessment (BRA) methods, benefit and risk criteria are usually identified and defined separately based on aggregated clinical data and therefore ignore the individual-level differences as well as the association among the criteria. We proposed a Bayesian multicriteria decision-making method for BRA of drugs using individual-level data. We used a multidimensional latent trait model to account for the heterogeneity of treatment effects with latent variables introducing the dependencies among outcomes. We then applied the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis approach for BRA incorporating imprecise and heterogeneous patient preference information. We adopted an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm when implementing the proposed method. We applied our method to a case study to illustrate how individual-level benefit-risk profiles could inform decision-making.

While benefit-risk assessment is a key component of the drug development and maintenance process, it is often described in a narrative. In contrast, structured benefit-risk assessment builds on established ideas from decision analysis and comprises a qualitative framework and quantitative methodology. We compare two such frameworks, applying multi-criteria decision-analysis (MCDA) within the PrOACT-URL framework and weighted net clinical benefit (wNCB), within the BRAT framework. These are applied to a case study of natalizumab for the treatment of relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis. We focus on the practical considerations of applying these methods and give recommendations for visual presentation of results. In the case study, we found structured benefit-risk analysis to be a useful tool for structuring, quantifying, and communicating the relative benefit and safety profiles of drugs in a transparent, rational and consistent way. The two frameworks were similar. MCDA is a generic and flexible methodology that can be used to perform a structured benefit-risk in any common context. wNCB is a special case of MCDA and is shown to be equivalent to an extension of the number needed to treat (NNT) principle. It is simpler to apply and understand than MCDA and can be applied when all outcomes are measured on a binary scale.

Benefit-risk (BR) assessment is essential to ensure the best decisions are made for a medical product in the clinical development process, regulatory marketing authorization, post-market surveillance, and coverage and reimbursement decisions. One challenge of BR assessment in practice is that the benefit and risk profile may keep evolving while new evidence is accumulating. Regulators and the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) recommend performing periodic benefit-risk evaluation report (PBRER) through the product's lifecycle. In this paper, we propose a general statistical framework for periodic benefit-risk assessment, in which Bayesian meta-analysis and stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) will be combined to synthesize the accumulating evidence. The proposed approach allows us to compare the acceptability of different drugs dynamically and effectively and accounts for the uncertainty of clinical measurements and imprecise or incomplete preference information of decision makers. We apply our approaches to two real examples in a post-hoc way for illustration purpose. The proposed method may easily be modified for other pre and post market settings, and thus be an important complement to the current structured benefit-risk assessment (sBRA) framework to improve the transparent and consistency of the decision-making process.

Biomarkers can be used to establish more homogeneous groups using the genetic makeup of the tumour to inform the selection of treatment for each individual patient. However, proper preclinical work and stringent validation are needed before taking forward biomarkers into confirmatory studies. Despite the challenges, incorporation of biomarkers into clinical trials could better target appropriate patients, and potentially be lifesaving. The authors conducted a systematic review to describe marker-based and adaptive design methodology for their integration in clinical trials, and to further describe the associated practical challenges. Studies published between 1990 to November 2015 were searched on PubMed. Titles, abstracts and full text articles were reviewed to identify relevant studies. Of the 4438 studies examined, 57 studies were included. The authors conclude that the proposed approaches may readily help researchers to design biomarker trials, but novel approaches are still needed.

PURPOSE: Difficulties may be encountered when undertaking a benefit-risk assessment for an older product with well-established use but with a benefit-risk balance that may have changed over time. This case study investigates this specific situation by applying a formal benefit-risk framework to assess the benefit-risk balance of warfarin for primary prevention of patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We used the qualitative framework BRAT as the starting point of the benefit-risk analysis, bringing together the relevant available evidence. We explored the use of a quantitative method (stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis) to demonstrate how uncertainties and preferences on multiple criteria can be integrated into a single measure to reduce cognitive burden and increase transparency in decision making. RESULTS: Our benefit-risk model found that warfarin is favourable compared with placebo for the primary prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. This favourable benefit-risk balance is fairly robust to differences in preferences. The probability of a favourable benefit-risk for warfarin against placebo is high (0.99) in our model despite the high uncertainty of randomised clinical trial data. In this case study, we identified major challenges related to the identification of relevant benefit-risk criteria and taking into account the diversity and quality of evidence available to inform the benefit-risk assessment. CONCLUSION: The main challenges in applying formal methods for medical benefit-risk assessment for a marketed drug are related to outcome definitions and data availability. Data exist from many different sources (both randomised clinical trials and observational studies), and the variability in the studies is large. Copyright � 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Background The need for formal and structured approaches for benefit-risk assessment of medicines is increasing, as is the complexity of the scientific questions addressed before making decisions on the benefit-risk balance of medicines. We systematically collected, appraised and classified available benefit-risk methodologies to facilitate and inform their future use. Methods A systematic review of publications identified benefit-risk assessment methodologies. Methodologies were appraised on their fundamental principles, features, graphical representations, assessability and accessibility. We created a taxonomy of methodologies to facilitate understanding and choice. Results We identified 49 methodologies, critically appraised and classified them into four categories: frameworks, metrics, estimation techniques and utility survey techniques. Eight frameworks describe qualitative steps in benefit-risk assessment and eight quantify benefit-risk balance. Nine metric indices include threshold indices to measure either benefit or risk; health indices measure quality-of-life over time; and trade-off indices integrate benefits and risks. Six estimation techniques support benefit-risk modelling and evidence synthesis. Four utility survey techniques elicit robust value preferences from relevant stakeholders to the benefit-risk decisions. Conclusions Methodologies to help benefit-risk assessments of medicines are diverse and each is associated with different limitations and strengths. There is not a 'one-size-fits-all' method, and a combination of methods may be needed for each benefit-risk assessment. The taxonomy introduced herein may guide choice of adequate methodologies. Finally, we recommend 13 of 49 methodologies for further appraisal for use in the real-life benefit-risk assessment of medicines.

Background Sending a monetary incentive with postal questionnaires has been found to improve the proportion of responders, in research in non-healthcare settings. However, there is little research on use of incentives to improve follow-up rates in clinical trials, and existing studies are inconclusive. We conducted a randomised trial among participants in the Managing Injuries of the Neck Trial (MINT) to investigate the effects on the proportion of questionnaires returned and overall non-response of sending a £5 gift voucher with a follow-up questionnaire. Methods Participants in MINT were randomised to receive either: (a) a £5 gift voucher (incentive group) or (b) no gift voucher (no incentive group), with their 4 month or 8 month follow-up questionnaire. We recorded, for each group, the number of questionnaires returned, the number returned without any chasing from the study office, the overall number of non-responders (after all chasing efforts by the study office), and the costs of following up each group. Results 2144 participants were randomised, 1070 to the incentive group and 1074 to the no incentive group. The proportion of questionnaires returned (RR 1.10 (95% CI 1.05, 1.16)) and the proportion returned without chasing (RR 1.14 (95% CI 1.05, 1.24) were higher in the incentive group, and the overall non-response rate was lower (RR 0.68 (95% CI 0.53, 0.87)). Adjustment for injury severity and hospital of recruitment to MINT made no difference to these results, and there were no differences in results between the 4-month and 8-month follow up questionnaires. Analysis of costs suggested a cost of £67.29 per additional questionnaire returned. Conclusion Monetary incentives may be an effective way to increase the proportion of postal questionnaires returned and minimise loss to follow-up in clinical trials. Trial registration number ISRCTN61305297

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT • Human pancreatic polypeptide (hPP) is a natural pancreatic hormone that suppresses appetite after meals. • When exogenous hPP is given to healthy human volunteers, it causes a reduction in food intake. • PP 1420 is a longer acting analogue of hPP that has been developed as a novel treatment for obesity. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS • PP 1420 has been shown to be well tolerated in healthy human volunteers. • PP 1420 has been shown to have an extended terminal elimination half-life compared with hPP. AIMS The objectives of this phase 1 study were to confirm the tolerability of single ascending subcutaneous doses of PP 1420 in healthy subjects, to assess its adverse effects and to investigate the drug's pharmacokinetics and dose proportionality. METHODS This was a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized study. There were three dosing periods. Each subject (n= 12) was randomized to receive one dose of placebo and two ascending doses of PP 1420, given as a subcutaneous injection. Blood samples were taken over 24 h to assess pharmacokinetics. Standard safety and laboratory data were collected. The primary endpoint was the tolerability of PP 1420. The secondary endpoint was exposure to PP 1420 as assessed by Cmax and AUC(0,∞). RESULTS PP 1420 was well tolerated by all subjects with no serious adverse effects. Following single subcutaneous doses of PP 1420 at 2, 4 and 8 mg to male subjects, Cmax was reached at a median tmax of approximately 1 h post dose (range 0.32–2.00 h). Thereafter, plasma concentrations of PP 1420 declined with geometric mean apparent terminal elimination t1/2 ranging from 2.42–2.61 h (range 1.64–3.95 h) across all dose levels. CONCLUSIONS Subcutaneous PP 1420 was well tolerated in healthy human subjects at single doses between 2–8 mg, with no tolerability issues arising. Where observed, adverse events were not serious, and there was no evidence of a dose-relationship to frequency of adverse events. The results therefore support the conduct of clinical trials to investigate efficacy, tolerability and pharmacokinetics during repeated dosing.

The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) associated with cumulative flying time remains uncertain. In a case-control study in general practices throughout the UK, participants comprised 550 VTE cases identified from practice records and 1971 age- and gender-matched controls. Participants returned identical questionnaires asking for information including air travel details. Compared to not flying, cumulative flying time >12 h within the previous 4 weeks was associated with a threefold increase in the risk of VTE [odds ratio (OR) 2·75, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1·44-5·28]. Those who had flown >4 h in a single leg in the previous 4 weeks had twice the risk of VTE (OR 2·20, 95% CI, 1·29-3·73). These risks were no longer evident by 12 weeks and were similar to those of day-case or minor surgery (OR 5·35, 95% CI, 2·15-13·33). Equivalent risks for moderate and high-risk surgery were over 30-fold (OR 36·57, 95% CI, 13·05-102·52) and 140-fold (OR 141·71, 95% CI, 19·38-1036·01) respectively. The temporary nature of the association of cumulative and long-haul air travel with VTE suggests a causal relationship. The risks of VTE in those with a higher baseline risk due to surgery, previous VTE or obesity are further increased by air travel.

Purpose The effect of influenza vaccination on oral anticoagulant control is uncertain but important to establish since anticoagulants are widely used and most patients taking them are candidates for immunisation because of age or underlying cardiac disease. We therefore prospectively evaluated the effect of influenza vaccination on International Normalised Ratio (INR) control in patients on long-term warfarin. Methods We undertook a prospective audit of patients on long-term warfarin attending a single hospital anticoagulant clinic who reported receiving influenza vaccination within the 10 days prior to a clinic visit. We compared the stability of anticoagulant control in the 12 months prior to and 10 days after immunisation, restricting analysis to those patients whose warfarin dosage was unchanged before and after vaccination. Results Of 106 consecutive patients who reported receiving influenza vaccination within the 10 days prior to a clinic visit, results were evaluable in 78 because the dose of warfarin was unchanged before and after vaccination. Influenza immunisation had no apparent effect on anticoagulant control. No bleeding or thrombotic complications were reported. Conclusions Our findings suggest that it is not necessary to routinely monitor the INR more closely after influenza vaccination. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Background: Knowledge of the fetal effects of maternal medication use in pregnancy is often inadequate and current pregnancy pharmacovigilance (PV) surveillance methods have important limitations. Patient self-reporting may be able to mitigate some of these limitations, providing an adequately sized study sample can be recruited. Objective: To compare the ability and cost-effectiveness of several direct-to-participant advertising methods for the recruitment of pregnant participants into a study of self-reported gestational exposures and pregnancy outcomes. Methods: The Pharmacoepidemiological Research on Outcomes of Therapeutics by a European Consortium (PROTECT) pregnancy study is a non-interventional, prospective pilot study of self-reported medication use and obstetric outcomes provided by a cohort of pregnant women that was conducted in Denmark, the Netherlands, Poland, and the United Kingdom. Direct-to-participant advertisements were provided via websites, emails, leaflets, television, and social media platforms. Results: Over a 70-week recruitment period direct-to-participant advertisements engaged 43,234 individuals with the study website or telephone system; 4.78% (2065/43,234) of which were successfully enrolled and provided study data. Of these 90.4% (1867/2065) were recruited via paid advertising methods, 23.0% (475/2065) of whom were in the first trimester of pregnancy. The overall costs per active recruited participant were lowest for email (€23.24) and website (€24.41) advertisements and highest for leaflet (€83.14) and television (€100.89). Website adverts were substantially superior in their ability to recruit participants during their first trimester of pregnancy (317/668, 47.5%) in comparison with other advertising methods (P

Background: Little is known about the effects of human fetal exposure when a new drug is authorized unless it was specifically developed for use in pregnancy. Since many factors may contribute to adverse fetal effects, having comprehensive information about in utero exposures will enhance our ability to make correct determinations about causality. Objective: The objective of the study was to assess the extent to which women, recruited without the intervention of health care professionals (HCPs), will provide information, suitable for research purposes, via the Internet or by phone on some potential risk factors in pregnancy. Methods: To pilot direct-to-patient research for pharmacovigilance, we conducted a prospective, noninterventional study of medication use and lifestyle factors as part of the Pharmacoepidemiological Research on Outcomes of Therapeutics by a European ConsorTium (PROTECT) Consortium. Consenting women who self-identified as pregnant and residing in the United Kingdom (UK), Denmark (DK), The Netherlands, or Poland were recruited and could then choose to provide data every 2 or 4 weeks via the Internet or a telephonic interactive voice response system (IVRS). Self-reported drug use was compared with pharmacy register data in DK and with electronic health records in the UK. Results: Recruited women were on average older and more highly educated than the general population. Most respondents chose a frequency of every 4 weeks (56.99%, 1177/2065). Only 29.83% (464/1555) of women with due dates occurring during the study provided information on pregnancy outcome. For those responding by Internet, over 90.00% (1915/2065) reported using >1 pregnancy-related medication, 83.34% (1721/2065) reported using >1 other medicine, and 23.53% (486/2065) reported only over-the-counter medications, not counting herbals and dietary supplements. Some respondents (7.16%, 148/2065) reported that they chose not to take a prescribed medication (mostly medicines for pain or inflammation, and for depression) and 1.30% (27/2065) reported using medicines that had been prescribed to a friend or family member (oxycodone, paracetamol, and medications for acid-related problems). Relatively few respondents reported using fish oil (4.60%, 95/2065), other dietary supplements (1.88%, 39/2065), herbal products (7.07%, 146/2065), or homeopathic products (1.16%, 24/2065). Most medications for chronic conditions that were listed in the Danish prescription registry were also self-reported (83.3%, 145/174 agreement), with larger discrepancies for medications indicated for short-term use (54.0%, 153/283 agreement) and pregnancy-related medications (66.1%, 78/118). Conclusions: Self-reported information on medication use as well as other potential teratogenic factors can be collected via the Internet, although recruitment costs are not insubstantial and maintaining follow-up is challenging. Direct data collection from consumers adds detail, but clinical input may be needed to fully understand patients’ medical histories and capture birth outcomes. [JMIR Public Health Surveill 2015;1(2):e22]

Objective: The colonic microbiota ferment dietary fibres, producing short chain fatty acids. Recent evidence suggests that the short chain fatty acid propionate may play an important role in appetite regulation. We hypothesised that colonic delivery of propionate would increase peptide YY (PYY) and glucagon like peptide-1 (GLP-1) secretion in humans, and reduce energy intake and weight gain in overweight adults.\ud \ud Design: To investigate whether propionate promotes PYY and GLP-1 secretion, a primary cultured human colonic cell model was developed. To deliver propionate specifically to the colon, we developed a novel inulin-propionate ester. An acute randomised, controlled cross-over study was used to assess the effects of this inulin-propionate ester on energy intake and plasma PYY and GLP-1 concentrations. The long-term effects of inulin-propionate ester on weight gain were subsequently assessed in a randomised, controlled 24-week study involving 60 overweight adults.\ud \ud Results: Propionate significantly stimulated the release of PYY and GLP-1 from human colonic cells. Acute ingestion of 10 g inulin-propionate ester significantly increased postprandial plasma PYY and GLP-1 and reduced energy intake. Over 24 weeks, 10 g/day inulin-propionate ester supplementation significantly reduced weight gain, intra-abdominal adipose tissue distribution, intrahepatocellular lipid content and prevented the deterioration in insulin sensitivity observed in the inulin-control group.\ud \ud Conclusions: These data demonstrate for the first time that increasing colonic propionate prevents weight gain in overweight adult humans.

The purpose of this study is to draw on the practical experience from the PROTECT BR case studies and make recommendations regarding the application of a number of methodologies and visual representations for benefit-risk assessment.Eight case studies based on the benefit-risk balance of real medicines were used to test various methodologies that had been identified from the literature as having potential applications in benefit-risk assessment. Recommendations were drawn up based on the results of the case studies.A general pathway through the case studies was evident, with various classes of methodologies having roles to play at different stages. Descriptive and quantitative frameworks were widely used throughout to structure problems, with other methods such as metrics, estimation techniques and elicitation techniques providing ways to incorporate technical or numerical data from various sources. Similarly, tree diagrams and effects tables were universally adopted, with other visualisations available to suit specific methodologies or tasks as required. Every assessment was found to follow five broad stages: (i) Planning, (ii) Evidence gathering and data preparation, (iii) Analysis, (iv) Exploration and (v) Conclusion and dissemination.Adopting formal, structured approaches to benefit-risk assessment was feasible in real-world problems and facilitated clear, transparent decision-making. Prior to this work, no extensive practical application and appraisal of methodologies had been conducted using real-world case examples, leaving users with limited knowledge of their usefulness in the real world. The practical guidance provided here takes us one step closer to a harmonised approach to benefit-risk assessment from multiple perspectives.

Obtaining data without the intervention of a health care provider represents an opportunity to expand understanding of the safety of medications used in difficult-to-study situations, like the first trimester of pregnancy when women may not present for medical care. While it is widely agreed that personal data, and in particular medical data, needs to be protected from unauthorized use, data protection requirements for population-based studies vary substantially by country. For public-private partnerships, the complexities are enhanced. The objective of this viewpoint paper is to illustrate the challenges related to data protection based on our experiences when performing relatively straightforward direct-to-patient noninterventional research via the Internet or telephone in four European countries. Pregnant women were invited to participate via the Internet or using an automated telephone response system in Denmark, the Netherlands, Poland, and the United Kingdom. Information was sought on medications, other factors that may cause birth defects, and pregnancy outcome. Issues relating to legal controllership of data were most problematic; assuring compliance with data protection requirements took about two years. There were also inconsistencies in the willingness to accept nonwritten informed consent. Nonetheless, enrollment and data collection have been completed, and analysis is in progress. Using direct reporting from consumers to study the safety of medicinal products allows researchers to address a myriad of research questions relating to everyday clinical practice, including treatment heterogeneity in population subgroups not traditionally included in clinical trials, like pregnant women, children, and the elderly. Nonetheless, there are a variety of administrative barriers relating to data protection and informed consent, particularly within the structure of a public-private partnership.

The PROTECT Benefit-Risk group is dedicated to research in methods for continuous benefit-risk monitoring of medicines, including the presentation of the results, with a particular emphasis on graphical methods.A comprehensive review was performed to identify visuals used for medical risk and benefit-risk communication. The identified visual displays were grouped into visual types, and each visual type was appraised based on five criteria: intended audience, intended message, knowledge required to understand the visual, unintentional messages that may be derived from the visual and missing information that may be needed to understand the visual.Sixty-six examples of visual formats were identified from the literature and classified into 14 visual types. We found that there is not one single visual format that is consistently superior to others for the communication of benefit-risk information. In addition, we found that most of the drawbacks found in the visual formats could be considered general to visual communication, although some appear more relevant to specific formats and should be considered when creating visuals for different audiences depending on the exact message to be communicated.We have arrived at recommendations for the use of visual displays for benefit-risk communication. The recommendation refers to the creation of visuals. We outline four criteria to determine audience-visual compatibility and consider these to be a key task in creating any visual. Next we propose specific visual formats of interest, to be explored further for their ability to address nine different types of benefit-risk analysis information.

Quantitative decision models such as multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can be used in benefit-risk assessment to formalize trade-offs between benefits and risks, providing transparency to the assessment process. There is however no well-established method for propagating uncertainty of treatment effects data through such models to provide a sense of the variability of the benefit-risk balance. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical method that directly models the outcomes observed in randomized placebo-controlled trials and uses this to infer indirect comparisons between competing active treatments. The resulting treatment effects estimates are suitable for use within the MCDA setting, and it is possible to derive the distribution of the overall benefit-risk balance through Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The method is illustrated using a case study of natalizumab for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

PURPOSE: Difficulties may be encountered when undertaking a benefit-risk assessment for an older product with well-established use but with a benefit-risk balance that may have changed over time. This case study investigates this specific situation by applying a formal benefit-risk framework to assess the benefit-risk balance of warfarin for primary prevention of patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We used the qualitative framework BRAT as the starting point of the benefit-risk analysis, bringing together the relevant available evidence. We explored the use of a quantitative method (stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis) to demonstrate how uncertainties and preferences on multiple criteria can be integrated into a single measure to reduce cognitive burden and increase transparency in decision making. RESULTS: Our benefit-risk model found that warfarin is favourable compared with placebo for the primary prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. This favourable benefit-risk balance is fairly robust to differences in preferences. The probability of a favourable benefit-risk for warfarin against placebo is high (0.99) in our model despite the high uncertainty of randomised clinical trial data. In this case study, we identified major challenges related to the identification of relevant benefit-risk criteria and taking into account the diversity and quality of evidence available to inform the benefit-risk assessment. CONCLUSION: The main challenges in applying formal methods for medical benefit-risk assessment for a marketed drug are related to outcome definitions and data availability. Data exist from many different sources (both randomised clinical trials and observational studies), and the variability in the studies is large. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

While benefit-risk assessment is a key component of the drug development and maintenance process, it is often described in a narrative. In contrast, structured benefit-risk assessment builds on established ideas from decision analysis and comprises a qualitative framework and quantitative methodology. We compare two such frameworks, applying multi-criteria decision-analysis (MCDA) within the PrOACT-URL framework and weighted net clinical benefit (wNCB), within the BRAT framework. These are applied to a case study of natalizumab for the treatment of relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis. We focus on the practical considerations of applying these methods and give recommendations for visual presentation of results. In the case study, we found structured benefit-risk analysis to be a useful tool for structuring, quantifying, and communicating the relative benefit and safety profiles of drugs in a transparent, rational and consistent way. The two frameworks were similar. MCDA is a generic and flexible methodology that can be used to perform a structured benefit-risk in any common context. wNCB is a special case of MCDA and is shown to be equivalent to an extension of the number needed to treat (NNT) principle. It is simpler to apply and understand than MCDA and can be applied when all outcomes are measured on a binary scale.

The need for formal and structured approaches for benefit-risk assessment of medicines is increasing, as is the complexity of the scientific questions addressed before making decisions on the benefit-risk balance of medicines. We systematically collected, appraised and classified available benefit-risk methodologies to facilitate and inform their future use.A systematic review of publications identified benefit-risk assessment methodologies. Methodologies were appraised on their fundamental principles, features, graphical representations, assessability and accessibility. We created a taxonomy of methodologies to facilitate understanding and choice.We identified 49 methodologies, critically appraised and classified them into four categories: frameworks, metrics, estimation techniques and utility survey techniques. Eight frameworks describe qualitative steps in benefit-risk assessment and eight quantify benefit-risk balance. Nine metric indices include threshold indices to measure either benefit or risk; health indices measure quality-of-life over time; and trade-off indices integrate benefits and risks. Six estimation techniques support benefit-risk modelling and evidence synthesis. Four utility survey techniques elicit robust value preferences from relevant stakeholders to the benefit-risk decisions.Methodologies to help benefit-risk assessments of medicines are diverse and each is associated with different limitations and strengths. There is not a 'one-size-fits-all' method, and a combination of methods may be needed for each benefit-risk assessment. The taxonomy introduced herein may guide choice of adequate methodologies. Finally, we recommend 13 of 49 methodologies for further appraisal for use in the real-life benefit-risk assessment of medicines.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials in cystic fibrosis (CF) have been hindered by the paucity of well characterised and clinically relevant outcome measures. AIM: To evaluate a range of conventional and novel biomarkers of CF lung disease in a multicentre setting as a contributing study in selecting outcome assays for a clinical trial of CFTR gene therapy. METHODS: A multicentre observational study of adult and paediatric patients with CF (>10 years) treated for a physician-defined exacerbation of CF pulmonary symptoms. Measurements were performed at commencement and immediately after a course of intravenous antibiotics. Disease activity was assessed using 46 assays across five key domains: symptoms, lung physiology, structural changes on CT, pulmonary and systemic inflammatory markers. RESULTS: Statistically significant improvements were seen in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (p

Summary Background Little is known about the effectiveness of treatments for acute whiplash injury. We aimed to estimate whether training of staff in emergency departments to provide active management consultations was more effective than usual consultations (Step 1) and to estimate whether a physiotherapy package was more effective than one additional physiotherapy advice session in patients with persisting symptoms (Step 2). Methods Step 1 was a pragmatic, cluster randomised trial of 12 NHS Trust hospitals including 15 emergency departments who treated patients with acute whiplash associated disorder of grades I–III. The hospitals were randomised by clusters to either active management or usual care consultations. In Step 2, we used a nested individually randomised trial. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either a package of up to six physiotherapy sessions or a single advice session. Randomisation in Step 2 was stratified by centre. Investigator-masked outcomes were obtained at 4, 8, and 12 months. Masking of clinicians and patients was not possible in all steps of the trial. The primary outcome was the Neck Disability Index (NDI). Analysis was intention to treat, and included an economic evaluation. The study is registered ISRCTN33302125. Findings Recruitment ran from Dec 5, 2005 to Nov 30, 2007. Follow-up was completed on Dec 19, 2008. In Step 1, 12 NHS Trusts were randomised, and 3851 of 6952 eligible patients agreed to participate (1598 patients were assigned to usual care and 2253 patients were assigned to active management). 2704 (70%) of 3851 patients provided data at 12 months. NDI score did not differ between active management and usual care consultations (difference at 12 months 0·5, 95% CI −1·5 to 2·5). In Step 2, 599 patients were randomly assigned to receive either advice (299 patients) or a physiotherapy package (300 patients). 479 (80%) patients provided data at 12 months. The physiotherapy package at 4 months showed a modest benefit compared to advice (NDI difference −3·7, −6·1 to −1·3), but not at 8 or 12 months. Active management consultations and the physiotherapy package were more expensive than usual care and single advice session. No treatment-related serious adverse events or deaths were noted. Interpretation Provision of active management consultation did not show additional benefit. A package of physiotherapy gave a modest acceleration to early recovery of persisting symptoms but was not cost effective from a UK NHS perspective. Usual consultations in emergency departments and a single physiotherapy advice session for persistent symptoms are recommended. Funding NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the clinical effectiveness of a stepped care approach over a 12-month period after an acute whiplash injury; to estimate the costs and cost-effectiveness of each strategy including treatments and subsequent health-care costs; and to gain participants' perspective on experiencing whiplash injury, NHS treatment, and recovery within the context of the Managing Injuries of the Neck Trial (MINT). DESIGN: Two linked, pragmatic, randomised controlled trials. In Step 1, emergency departments (EDs) were cluster randomised to usual care advice (UCA) or The Whiplash Book advice (WBA)/active management advice. In Step 2, participants were individually randomised to either a single session of advice from a physiotherapist or a physiotherapy package of up to six sessions. An economic evaluation and qualitative study were run in parallel with the trial. SETTING: Twelve NHS trusts in England comprising 15 EDs. PARTICIPANTS: People who attended EDs with an acute whiplash injury of whiplash-associated disorder grades I-III were eligible for Step 1. People who had attended EDs with whiplash injuries and had persistent symptoms 3 weeks after ED attendance were eligible for Step 2. INTERVENTIONS: In Step 1, the control intervention was UCA and the experimental intervention was a psycho-educational intervention (WBA/active management advice). In Step 2 the control treatment was reinforcement of the advice provided in Step 1 and the experimental intervention was a package of up to six physiotherapy treatments. MAIN OUTCOME: The primary outcome was the Neck Disability Index (NDI), which measures severity and frequency of pain and symptoms, and a range of activities including self-care, driving, reading, sleeping and recreation. Secondary outcomes included the mental and physical health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) subscales of the Short Form questionnaire-12 items (SF-12) and the number of work days lost. RESULTS: A total of 3851 patients were recruited to Step 1 of the trial. 1598 patients attending EDs were randomised to UCA, and 2253 were randomised to WBA/active management. Outcome data were obtained at 12 months for 70% and 80% of participants at Step 1 and Step 2, respectively. The majority of people recovered from the injury. Eighteen per cent of the Step 1 cohort had late whiplash syndrome. There was no statistically or clinically significant difference observed in any of the outcomes for participants attending EDs randomised to UCA or active management advice [difference in NDI 0.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.8 to 2.8]. In Step 2 the physiotherapy package resulted in improvements in neck disability at 4 months compared with a single advice session, but these effects were small at the population level (difference in NDI -3.2, 95% CI -5.8 to -0.7). The physiotherapy package was accompanied by a significant reduction in the number of work days lost at 4-month follow-up (difference -40.2, 95% CI -44.3 to -35.8). CONCLUSIONS: MINT suggests that enhanced psycho-educational interventions in EDs are no more effective than UCA in reducing the burden of acute whiplash injuries. A physiotherapy package provided to people who have persisting symptoms within the first 6 weeks of injury produced additional short-term benefits in neck disability compared with a single physiotherapy advice session. However, from a health-care perspective, the physiotherapy package was not cost-effective at current levels of willingness to pay. Both experimental treatments were associated with increased cost with no discernible gain in health-related quality of life. However, an important benefit of the physiotherapy package was a reduction in work days lost; consequently, the intervention may prove cost-effective at the societal level. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN33302125. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 16, No. 49. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) associated with cumulative flying time remains uncertain. In a case-control study in general practices throughout the UK, participants comprised 550 VTE cases identified from practice records and 1971 age- and gender-matched controls. Participants returned identical questionnaires asking for information including air travel details. Compared to not flying, cumulative flying time12 h within the previous 4 weeks was associated with a threefold increase in the risk of VTE [odds ratio (OR) 2·75, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1·44-5·28]. Those who had flown4 h in a single leg in the previous 4 weeks had twice the risk of VTE (OR 2·20, 95% CI, 1·29-3·73). These risks were no longer evident by 12 weeks and were similar to those of day-case or minor surgery (OR 5·35, 95% CI, 2·15-13·33). Equivalent risks for moderate and high-risk surgery were over 30-fold (OR 36·57, 95% CI, 13·05-102·52) and 140-fold (OR 141·71, 95% CI, 19·38-1036·01) respectively. The temporary nature of the association of cumulative and long-haul air travel with VTE suggests a causal relationship. The risks of VTE in those with a higher baseline risk due to surgery, previous VTE or obesity are further increased by air travel.

Objective To investigate the overall probability of error in preparing and administering intravenous medicines; to identify at which stage of the process an error is most likely to occur; and to determine the impact of error correction on the error probability. Design Systematic review and random-effects Bayesian conditional independence modelling. Methods Medline and EMBASE were searched for studies on intravenous medicines. The error rates of each stage were extracted. These, expert estimates, and error rates from generic tasks, were used in a Bayesian conditional independence model to find error ‘hot-spots.’ The main outcome measure was the probability of at least one error occurring during intravenous therapy. Results Nine published studies were identified for inclusion in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The overall probability of making at least one error in intravenous therapy was 0.73 (95% credible interval (CrI) 0.54 to 0.90). If error-checking was introduced at each stage of the process, the overall rate fell to 0.22 (95% CrI 0.14 to 0.31). Errors were most likely in the reconstitution step. Removing the reconstitution step by providing preprepared injections would reduce the overall error rate to 0.17 (95% CrI 0.09 to 0.27). Conclusions Intravenous therapy is complex and error-prone. Error-checking at each stage could reduce the error probability. The use of preprepared injections may help by eliminating errors in the reconstitution of drug and diluent. However, it will be important to ensure that benefits are not outweighed by practical disadvantages such as an increase in selection errors.

Introduction Although, on average, cognition declines with age, cognition in older adults is a dynamic process. Hypertension is associated with greater decline in cognition with age, but whether treatment of hypertension affects this is uncertain. Here, we modelled dynamics of cognition in relation to the treatment of hypertension, to see if treatment effects might better be discerned by a model that included baseline measures of cognition and consequent mortality Methodology/Principal Findings This is a secondary analysis of the Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial (HYVET), a double blind, placebo controlled trial of indapamide, with or without perindopril, in people aged 80+ years at enrollment. Cognitive states were defined in relation to errors on the Mini-Mental State Examination, with more errors signifying worse cognition. Change in cognitive state was evaluated using a dynamic model of cognitive transition. In the model, the probabilities of transitions between cognitive states is represented by a Poisson distribution, with the Poisson mean dependent on the baseline cognitive state. The dynamic model of cognitive transition was good (R2 = 0.74) both for those on placebo and (0.86) for those on active treatment. The probability of maintaining cognitive function, based on baseline function, was slightly higher in the actively treated group (e.g., for those with the fewest baseline errors, the chance of staying in that state was 63% for those on treatment, compared with 60% for those on placebo). Outcomes at two and four years could be predicted based on the initial state and treatment. Conclusions/Significance A dynamic model of cognition that allows all outcomes (cognitive worsening, stability improvement or death) to be categorized simultaneously detected small but consistent differences between treatment and control groups (in favour of treatment) amongst very elderly people treated for hypertension. The model showed good fit, and suggests that most change in cognition in very elderly people is small, and depends on their baseline state and on treatment. Additional work is needed to understand whether this modelling approach is well suited to the valuation of small effects, especially in the face of mortality differences between treatment groups. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0012281

Objective To investigate the overall probability of error in preparing and administering intravenous medicines; to identify at which stage of the process an error is most likely to occur; and to determine the impact of error correction on the error probability. Design Systematic review and random-effects Bayesian conditional independence modelling. Methods Medline and EMBASE were searched for studies on intravenous medicines. The error rates of each stage were extracted. These, expert estimates, and error rates from generic tasks, were used in a Bayesian conditional independence model to find error ‘hot-spots.’ The main outcome measure was the probability of at least one error occurring during intravenous therapy. Results Nine published studies were identified for inclusion in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The overall probability of making at least one error in intravenous therapy was 0.73 (95% credible interval (CrI) 0.54 to 0.90). If error-checking was introduced at each stage of the process, the overall rate fell to 0.22 (95% CrI 0.14 to 0.31). Errors were most likely in the reconstitution step. Removing the reconstitution step by providing preprepared injections would reduce the overall error rate to 0.17 (95% CrI 0.09 to 0.27). Conclusions Intravenous therapy is complex and error-prone. Error-checking at each stage could reduce the error probability. The use of preprepared injections may help by eliminating errors in the reconstitution of drug and diluent. However, it will be important to ensure that benefits are not outweighed by practical disadvantages such as an increase in selection errors.

CONTEXT: Plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) are independently associated with risk of coronary heart disease, but whether CRP is causally associated with coronary heart disease or merely a marker of underlying atherosclerosis is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To investigate association of genetic loci with CRP levels and risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We first carried out a genome-wide association (n = 17,967) and replication study (n = 13,615) to identify genetic loci associated with plasma CRP concentrations. Data collection took place between 1989 and 2008 and genotyping between 2003 and 2008. We carried out a mendelian randomization study of the most closely associated single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the CRP locus and published data on other CRP variants involving a total of 28,112 cases and 100,823 controls, to investigate the association of CRP variants with coronary heart disease. We compared our finding with that predicted from meta-analysis of observational studies of CRP levels and risk of coronary heart disease. For the other loci associated with CRP levels, we selected the most closely associated SNP for testing against coronary heart disease among 14,365 cases and 32,069 controls. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Risk of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Polymorphisms in 5 genetic loci were strongly associated with CRP levels (% difference per minor allele): SNP rs6700896 in LEPR (-14.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -17.6% to -12.0%; P = 6.2 x 10(-22)), rs4537545 in IL6R (-11.5%; 95% CI, -14.4% to -8.5%; P = 1.3 x 10(-12)), rs7553007 in the CRP locus (-20.7%; 95% CI, -23.4% to -17.9%; P = 1.3 x 10(-38)), rs1183910 in HNF1A (-13.8%; 95% CI, -16.6% to -10.9%; P = 1.9 x 10(-18)), and rs4420638 in APOE-CI-CII (-21.8%; 95% CI, -25.3% to -18.1%; P = 8.1 x 10(-26)). Association of SNP rs7553007 in the CRP locus with coronary heart disease gave an odds ratio (OR) of 0.98 (95% CI, 0.94 to 1.01) per 20% lower CRP level. Our mendelian randomization study of variants in the CRP locus showed no association with coronary heart disease: OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.97 to 1.02; per 20% lower CRP level, compared with OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.94 to 0.95; predicted from meta-analysis of the observational studies of CRP levels and coronary heart disease (z score, -3.45; P < .001). SNPs rs6700896 in LEPR (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.09; per minor allele), rs4537545 in IL6R (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.91 to 0.97), and rs4420638 in the APOE-CI-CII cluster (OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.21) were all associated with risk of coronary heart disease. CONCLUSION: The lack of concordance between the effect on coronary heart disease risk of CRP genotypes and CRP levels argues against a causal association of CRP with coronary heart disease. JAMA

Objective. Advice to use topical or oral NSAIDs is equally effective for the treatment of knee pain in older people. The ingredient cost of topical preparations is typically more than oral preparations, but could save costs because they have fewer adverse effects. A cost–utility study is needed to decide on their comparative cost effectiveness. Methods. We recruited 585 people aged �50 yrs with knee pain; 282 participated in a randomized controlled trial and 303 in a patient preference study from 26 MRC General Practice Research Framework practices in the UK. They received advice to preferentially use topical or oral NSAIDs for knee pain. We calculated the comparative cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) from both a National Health Service (NHS) and a societal perspective over 12 and 24 months. Results. Compared with the topical route, oral NSAIDs cost the NHS £191 and £72 more over 1 yr in the randomized trial and preference study, respectively. The cost per QALY, from an NHS perspective, was in the range of £9000–£12 000 in the randomized trial. In the preference study, it was £2564 over 1 yr, but over 2 yrs the oral route was dominant. Conclusions. Our cost–effectiveness analysis supports the use of oral NSAIDs in selected patients. Nevertheless, deciding to recommend oral NSAIDs in preference to topical NSAIDs could have a substantial impact on NHS costs because of the uncertainty in the cost– effectiveness estimate.

Objectives:\ud To determine whether GPs should advise their older patients with chronic knee pain to use topical or oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs).\ud \ud Design:\ud An equivalence study was designed to compare the effect of advice to use preferentially oral or topical ibuprofen (an NSAID) on knee pain and disability, NSAID-related adverse effects and NHS/societal costs, using a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and a patient preference study (PPS). Reasons for patient preferences for topical or oral preparations, and attitudes to adverse effects, were explored in a qualitative study.\ud \ud Setting:\ud Twenty-six general practices in the UK.\ud \ud Participants:\ud Participants comprised 585 people with knee pain, aged 50 years or over; 44% were male, mean age 64 years. The RCT had 282 participants: 144 in the oral group and 138 in the topical group. The PPS had 303 participants: 79 in the oral group and 224 in the topical group.\ud \ud Interventions:\ud Advice to use preferentially oral or topical NSAIDs for knee pain.\ud \ud Outcome measures:\ud The primary outcome measure was the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC). Secondary outcome measures were the Short Form with 36 Items (SF-36), perceived troublesomeness of knee pain, satisfaction with health status, major adverse effects (unplanned hospital admissions and deaths) and minor adverse events over 12 months. The health economic analysis measured the comparative cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) from both an NHS and a societal perspective over 1 and 2 years.\ud \ud Results:\ud Changes in the global WOMAC score at 12-months were equivalent in both studies: topical – oral, RCT difference = 2 [95% confidence interval (CI) –2 to 6], PPS difference = 1 (95% CI –4 to 6). There were no differences in the secondary outcomes, except for a suggestion, in the RCT, that those in the topical group were more likely to have more severe overall pain and disability as measured by the chronic pain grade, and more likely to report changing treatment because of inadequate pain relief. There were no differences in the rate of major adverse effects but some differences in the number of minor ones. In the RCT, 17% and 10% in the oral and the topical group, respectively, had a defined respiratory adverse effect (95% CI of difference –17% to –2.0%); after 12 months, the change in serum creatinine was 3.7 mmol/l (95% CI 0.9 to 6.5) less favourable in the oral than in the topical group, and 11% of those in the oral group reported changing treatment because of adverse effects compared with 1% in the topical group (p = 0.02). None of these differences were seen in the PPS. Oral NSAIDs cost the NHS £191 and £72 more per participant over 1 year in the RCT and PPS respectively. In the RCT the cost per QALY in the oral group, from an NHS perspective, was in the range £9000–12,000. In the PPS it was £2564 over 1 year, but over 2 years the oral route was more cost-effective. Patient preference for medication type was affected by previous experience of medication (including adverse reactions), other illness, pain elsewhere, anecdotes, convenience, severity of pain and perceived degree of degeneration. Lack of understanding about knee pain and the action of medication led to increased tolerance of symptoms. Potentially important symptoms may inadvertently have been disregarded, increasing participants' risk of suffering a major adverse effect.\ud \ud Conclusions:\ud Advice to use either oral or topical preparations has an equivalent effect on knee pain, but oral NSAIDs appear to produce more minor adverse effects than topical NSAIDs. Generally, these results support advising older people with knee pain to use topical rather than oral NSAIDS. However, for patients who prefer oral NSAID preparations rather than a topical NSAID, particularly those with more widespread or severe pain, the oral route is a reasonable treatment option, provided that patients are aware of the risks of potentially serious adverse effects from oral medication. Further research is needed into strategies to change prescribing behaviour and ensure that older patients are aware of the potential risks and benefits of using NSAIDs. Observational studies are needed to estimate rates of different predefined minor adverse effects associated with the use of oral NSAIDs in older people as are long-term studies of topical NSAIDs in those for whom oral NSAIDs are not appropriate.

Objective To determine whether older patients with chronic knee pain should be advised to use topical or oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Design Randomised controlled trial and patient preference study. Setting 26 general practices. Participants People aged ≥50 with knee pain: 282 in randomised trial and 303 in preference study. Interventions Advice to use topical or oral ibuprofen. Primary outcome measures WOMAC (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities) osteoarthritis index, major and minor adverse effects. Results Changes in global WOMAC scores at 12 months were equivalent. In the randomised trial the difference (topical minus oral) was two points (95% confidence interval −2 to 6); in the preference study, it was one point (−4 to 6). There were no differences in major adverse effects in the trial or study. The only significant differences in secondary outcomes were in the randomised trial. The oral group had more respiratory adverse effects (17% v 7%,95% confidence interval for difference −17% to −2%), the change in serum creatinine was 3.7 mmol/l less favourable (0.9 µmol/l to 6.5 µmol/l); and more participants changed treatments because of adverse effects (16% v 1%, −16% to −5%). In the topical group more participants had chronic pain grade III or IV at three months, and more participants changed treatment because of ineffectiveness. Conclusions Advice to use oral or topical preparations has an equivalent effect on knee pain over one year, and there are more minor side effects with oral NSAIDs. Topical NSAIDs may be a useful alternative to oral NSAIDs. Trial registration ISRCTN 79353052.