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The ongoing Indo-Eurasian convergence leads to great megathrust earthquakes in the Himalayan region, affecting the life and infrastructure of the world's most densely populated areas adjoining the Himalaya. The ~2500-km long Himalayan arc has experienced several earthquakes having magnitude greater than Mw 7.5 during the last millennium. While palaeoseismic and fault slip-rate studies have gained pace during the last few decades in the Western and Central Himalayan regions, the Eastern Himalaya and contiguous regions remain understudied. Even though geological evidence of great earthquakes in 1697, 1714, and 1950 CE has been reported in the Eastern Himalaya, the lateral extent of their rupture is still debated due to limited and sparse palaeoseismic studies. Furthermore, the segmentation of the eastern Himalaya raises concerns about the role of sub-surface transverse structures in controlling the rupture propagation of large to great earthquakes. Hence, we have compiled all the palaeo-earthquake studies carried out in the eastern part of the Himalayan convergent plate margin of the Indian Subcontinent and identified the potential gap areas with the slip deficit, which are capable of generating Mw > 8 earthquakes in the future. This study aims to provide a foundation for future palaeo-earthquake studies, which are crucial in understanding the earthquake recurrence and the strain release pattern in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several seismic gaps have been identified along the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault zone and the Longmenshan fault zone in the Sichuan-Yunnan region, including the Daofu-Shimian gap on the Xianshuihe Fault, the Anninghe-Zemuhe gap, parts of the Xiaojiang Fault, and the Dayi gap between the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes. The seismic hazards of the Daofu-Shimian and Dayi gaps have aroused great concern and caused considerable debate. This paper reviews the recent geophysical observations and multidisciplinary studies conducted by domestic and international researchers in these areas, focusing on seismogenic structures, seismic activity, fault locking, stress fields, as well as earthquake triggering, and further analyzes the current controversial viewpoints about the seismic hazards in these regions. Based on the comprehensive analysis, we argue that the kinematic status along the Daofu-Shimian segment may vary significantly along the fault strike. Due to limitations in data and models, there is no consensus on the seismogenic potential of this area. Conversely, the Dayi seismic gap presents a high seismic potential. Furthermore, we delve into the scientific problems associated with major seismic gaps in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and make prospects for the strategy of future work. We propose a research framework that combines dense array and distributed acoustic sensing, artificial intelligence and big data technologies, joint inversion of multiple geophysical fields, as well as numerical simulation techniques for comprehensive seismic hazard analysis in seismic gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the uncertainty in earthquake forecasting, seismic hazard analysis has been considered to be the better method to estimate site-specific response spectra in seismic design. This research addresses a seismic hazard study for the Sarcheshmeh Copper Site in the Kerman Province, in southeast Iran. The first part of this paper includes an evaluation of seismotectonic and seismicity conditions throughout the study area. The second part addresses the seismic hazard analysis procedure followed by the determination of design ground motion parameters which is finally expressed in terms of peak ground acceleration in deterministic and probabilistic schemes. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) was obtained for the 75-, 475-, and 2475-year return period spectrum. (Kijko and Sellevoll's in Bull Seismol Soc Am 79(3):645 654, 1989) method was used for the evaluation of seismicity parameters, and the SEISRISK III computer program was used to conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Finally, the third part is devoted to the development of the earthquake design spectrum obtained by dynamic ground response analysis. Site response analysis program, EERA (Equivalent-linear Earthquake site Response Analysis), which implements an equivalent linear approach, was used for one-dimensional ground response analyses. The subsurface conditions including the geometry of the soil layers and their dynamic properties were extracted from the geotechnical investigations. Based on the results, the PGA values for the 75-, 475-, and 2475-year return period spectrum are 0.087, 0.302, and 0.425, respectively. This paper can provide guidance on conducting seismic hazard analyses at other sites. Also, the results could be used for earthquake-resistant design of civil engineering infrastructures of the studied area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fault segmentation plays a critical role in assessing seismic hazards, particularly in tectonically complex regions. The Laji-Jishi Shan Fault Zone (LJSFZ), located on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, is a key structure that accommodates regional tectonic stress. This study integrates geomorphic indices, cross-fault deformation rate profiles, and 3D crustal electrical structure data to analyze the varying levels of tectonic activity across different segments of the LJSFZ. We extracted 160 drainage basins along the strike of the LJSFZ from a 30 m resolution digital elevation model and calculated geomorphic indices, including the hypsometric integral (HI), stream length-gradient index (SL), and channel steepness index (ksn), to assess the variations in tectonic activity intensity along the strike of the LJSFZ. The basins were categorized based on river flow directions to capture potential differences across the fault zone. Our results show that the eastern basins of the LJSFZ exhibit the strongest tectonic activity, demonstrated by significantly higher SL and ksn values compared to other regions. A detailed segmentation analysis along the northern Laji Shan Fault and eastern Jishi Shan Fault identified distinct fault segments characterized by variations in SL and ksn indices. Segments with high SL values (>500) correspond to higher crustal uplift rates (~3 mm/year), while segments with lower SL values exhibit lower uplift rates (~2 mm/year), as confirmed by cross-fault deformation profiles derived from GNSS and InSAR data. This correlation demonstrates that geomorphic indices effectively reflect fault activity intensity. Additionally, 3D crustal electrical structure data further indicate that highly conductive mid- to lower-crustal materials originating from the interior of the Tibetan Plateau are obstructed at segment L3 of the LJSFZ. This obstruction leads to localized intense uplift and enhanced fault activity. These findings suggest that while the regional stress–strain pattern of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau is the primary driver of the segmented activity along the Laji-Jishi Shan belt, the direction of localized crustal flow is a critical factor influencing fault activity segmentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, the Delhi (National Capital Region, NCR) has witnessed significant growth and has emerged as a vital center for commerce and education. This rapid urbanization owes itself to its strategic location, connecting important cities like Gurugram, Faridabad, Noida, Sonipat, and Rohtak. However, its proximity to active geological features such as the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), Main Boundary Thrust (MBT), and Main Central Thrust (MCT), the city has been susceptible to devastating earthquakes, making it imperative to conduct a comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Delhi NCR area. To perform this assessment, a homogenized earthquake database from 1720 to 2023 within a 300 km radius of the epicenter of Delhi was utilized. This data enabled the calculation of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (Sa) at different time periods, representing 50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years at the bedrock level. A logic tree approach, incorporating Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) with appropriate weighted factors, was applied to ensure accuracy. The findings of the updated seismic hazard assessment reveal that Delhi and its neighboring cities are highly vulnerable to seismic hazards, with expected PGA values of 0.10 g, 0.18 g, 0.26 g, 0.33 g, and 0.48 g for the respective probabilities of exceedance. These results are comparable with the Indian code IS:1893 Part I and Malhotra's (2005) standards that validate their reliability. Furthermore, the seismic hazard results have been used to create a deaggregation plot, which helps to quantify the contributions of seismic sources in terms of magnitude and epicentral distance. This comprehensive understanding of seismic hazards in Delhi and its adjoining regions will aid in implementing appropriate measures to enhance preparedness and mitigate potential risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the general results of medium- and long-term earthquake forecasting with K ≥ 13 (M ≥ 5.0) in the Baikal rift zone. They were obtained in recent years through the joint use of the Prediction geoinformation system and the developed two-stage phenomenological model for the periods of preshock preparation of earthquakes. This model was created based on the analysis of seismological data on the preparation of the most dangerous local earthquakes that occurred in the Baikal rift zone. It is consistent with results obtained in the study of seismic regimes of ice shock preparation on the ice cover of Lake Baikal and in conducting field experiments on fault sections with the aim of clarifying the physical and mechanical conditions for the emergence of sources of seismic-range wave-oscillation generation. The paper provides an example of practical use of the obtained results of earthquake forecasting, as well as methods of clarifying seismic-hazard assessments in relation to infrastructure in the city of Angarsk, located 100 km from the seismically dangerous Main Sayan Fault (MSF), in the zone of which, during the analysis of the seismic regime, a "locked" segment with a seismic gap was identified. In accordance with its linear dimensions with a length of 60 km, according to two assumed equations of relationships L/M, estimates of energy potential were calculated, the maximum values of which correspond to the values Mmax = 7.1 and 7.8. It is shown that the use of the obtained earthquake-forecast results helps to clarify the level of seismic hazard for the nearest time intervals of expectation of earthquakes with different values Mmax. An example of assessing the current seismic hazard using a medium-term forecast for the infrastructure of the city of Angarsk is considered for possible seismic tremors from the south-eastern section of the MSF zone for the next 10 and 50 years. When compared with the OSR-16 map, it is shown that the calculations carried out indicate a relatively lower level of seismic hazard for the city of Angarsk, with waiting times of 10 and 50 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attaining explicit hazard estimates is a challenging task for data sparse regions such as the Peninsular India. Physics based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (Pb-PSHA) has gained momentum in recent years as a viable solution to this issue. While performing a site-specific analysis in data-sparse regions, instead of incorporating ground motion models (GMMs) from other regions in the hazard methodology, the Pb-PSHA involves obtaining physics-based numerical simulations. In the present study, Pb-PSHA is carried out for the entire southern Peninsular India, with a detailed demonstration for the Kalpakkam site, Tamilnadu. Due to absence of any data on local fault characteristics and past rupture models, simulations are derived using the spectral element method, for several source rupture scenarios. Further, the stochastic seismological model is used to simulate for high frequency (1-100 Hz) ensemble ground motions. Broadband ground motions are then obtained by combining the results from the deterministic model i.e., low frequency (0.01-1 Hz) simulations and the stochastic model. Further, PSHA based on elliptical gridded seismicity is carried out to obtain hazard curves for spectral accelerations. The ensuing uniform hazard response spectra are compared against the outcome of traditional PSHA involving a global GMM. The results indicate that the PGA values obtained from the Pb-PSHA are slightly higher than that of the global GMM-based PSHA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Red Sea region, situated between the Arabian and African Plates, experiences significant seismic activity due to its tectonic dynamics, with earthquakes ranging from minor to potentially destructive events. This study aims to develop smoothed seismicity models for the region by using an enhanced seismic catalog specific to the Red Sea. This facilitates a detailed spatial and temporal analysis of seismic events, focusing on seismic source characterization essential for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments. A rigorous declustering method excludes foreshocks and aftershocks, focusing on independent seismic events. The analysis uses a spatial grid (0.1 ∘ cells in latitude and longitude) to determine seismic event rates, which are then refined using various smoothing techniques. Special attention is given to seismic activity within 0–35 kms of depth, leading to distinct rate models that inform urban development and seismic hazard mitigation strategies in the Red Sea area. These models are crucial for improving resilience, safety, and informed decision-making for urban planning and disaster preparedness, addressing the challenges posed by the region's tectonic and seismic complexities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seismic gaps between ruptures of large earthquakes in tectonically active deformation zones are usually considered to be dangerous areas for future earthquakes. The Western Tianzhu Basin fault (WTBF) with an oblique normal motion is located in the middle of the Tianzhu seismic gap between the M 8.5 Haiyuan and M 8.0 Gulang earthquakes, NE Tibetan Plateau. The faulting activity of the WTBF is key to understanding the seismic hazards of the seismic gap, but it remains poorly constrained. Using satellite images, field investigations, paleoseismic trenching, and radiocarbon dating, we found that the WTBF produced seven paleoearthquakes since ∼8,000 cal. yr BP, with the latest event occurring at 1,005 ± 584 cal. yr BP, yielding an average recurrence interval of 1,102 ± 100 yr and a coefficient of variation of 0.38, indicating that it features a millennial quasi‐periodic recurrence. Based on the comparative analysis of geometry, kinematics, and tectonic activity, we suggest that the Tianzhu seismic gap can be divided into three sections and is characterized by a segmented rupture pattern. Among them, the WTBF and Jinqianghe fault exhibit similar geometry and kinematics and together form the ∼55 km‐long Jinqianghe‐Tianzhu transtensional fault zone (JTTFZ) that is capable of producing earthquakes of Mw 7.2. Given the long elapsed time since the latest event and strong seismogenic potential, it is believed that the JTTFZ poses a high seismic hazard. Our results enhance the understanding of the high seismic hazard in seismic gaps and provide new insights into the seismic rupture behavior in the NE Tibetan Plateau. Key Points: The Western Tianzhu Basin fault (WTBF) features oblique normal motion and has regularly produced seven paleoearthquakes since ∼8,000 cal. yr BPThe seismic gap between the 1920 and 1927 earthquakes is characterized by a complex geometry and a segmented rupture patternThe WTBF and Jinqianghe fault together form a transtensional fault zone with a high seismic hazard [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 26th May 2021, an earthquake with a moment magnitude Mw 5.1 hit the densely populated cities of Gisenyi (Rwanda) and Goma (D.R. Congo) which sit on the active East African Rift System. It was one of the largest earthquakes associated with the 2021 Mount Nyiragongo eruption. Although of moderate magnitude, the earthquake substantially damaged manmade structures. This paper presents field observations on the geotechnical impact, building damage, and factors contributing to the heightened destruction caused by this moderate earthquake. The damage pattern observed in the field indicates that masonry structures with inadequate seismic detailing were the most damaged buildings. In addition, the statistical analysis of the damaged buildings indicates most of the damaged structures were located in plains covered by volcanic soil. The intensity of the waves was estimated using the building damage data based on the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98). An intensity distribution map was generated for the surveyed area, suggesting EMS-98 intensity of VIII or IX along the eastern basin boundary fault and VII around the cities of Goma and Gisenyi where the land is composed of black cotton soil of volcanic origin. The higher intensity values along the eastern basin-bounding fault indicate that a reevaluation of the seismic hazard for the region is necessary. Since this is the first-ever such damage survey for the region, the developed intensity map can be used to understand the correlation between the intensity of the ground motion and damage severity which contributed to the seismic hazard assessment of the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tunnels are of significant importance in the sustainable development of global urban areas, particularly in metropolitan areas. It is of the utmost importance to evaluate the seismic performance of tunnels across a wide spectrum of earthquake intensities. In order to address this, our study presents a framework for the assessment of seismic risk in tunnels. This study employs the city of Shanghai's urban metro tunnels as case studies. The nominal values of seismic risk for the three main damage states—minor, moderate, and major—were calculated. Furthermore, the influence of utilizing disparate fragility functions on expected seismic risk assessments was investigated. In this framework, the probability density functions of the different fragility curve models are employed to treat the probability values associated with them as random variables. This approach aims to facilitate the propagation of IMV in seismic risk assessments. The results demonstrate that the Bayesian framework efficiently incorporates the full range of input model variability into risk estimation. The findings of this study offer a foundation for decision-making processes, seismic risk assessments, and the resilience management of urban infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seismic hazard along the Himalayan arc remains a focus of discussion due to its huge potential societal impact. Taking advantage of modern, dense geodetic observations, several attempts have been made to provide a clear picture of the present‐day rate of strain accumulation caused by interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). However, there are differing opinions regarding the interpretation of spatial variation in interseismic coupling along some parts of the arc. Critically, the resolution of heterogeneity of coupling is limited due to sparse geodetic observations in some areas. In the present work, we use an updated compilation of all available Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data along the Himalayan arc and a suite of kinematic block models to account for deformation within the overriding plate to characterize the status of interseismic plate coupling. Our results show that the MHT is highly coupled (>0.8) along its entire length and the coupling distribution is nearly binary along‐dip. This translates to a high seismic hazard in the densely populated Indo‐Gangetic plains with a seismic moment accumulation of one Mw 8.7 megathrust earthquake per 100 years. Our results suggest that previously inferred low coupling zones along the MHT are possible manifestations of block modeling artifacts, where the fault segments in the overriding plate control the megathrust slip distribution more strongly than structures within the Indian lithosphere. This result highlights a strong need for better characterization of deforming structures in the overriding plate within the Himalayas and southern Tibetan plateau. Plain Language Summary: More than two‐thirds of the Himalayan megathrust, the plate boundary between the Indian and Eurasia plates, has not ruptured in the past 200 years. Kinematic plate coupling derived from GNSS observations is an important parameter that can reveal which parts of the megathrust are likely to generate future great earthquakes (high coupling means high earthquake potential). Prior attempts have been made to provide a clear picture of the kinematic coupling along the Himalayan megathrust; however, different opinions exist. In particular, the presence of low coupling zones as a result of the interaction of sub‐surface structures has been inferred by some authors but not others. In the present study, we reevaluated the Himalayan plate coupling by considering an updated compilation of all available GNSS data and a suite of kinematic block models to account for deformation within the overriding plate. We found the megathrust is highly coupled along its entire length and stores elastic strain equivalent to an Mw 8.7 megathrust earthquake every 100 years. Our modeling results suggest that previously inferred low coupling zones are possibly related to geodetic modeling artifacts, and are not associated with sub‐surface structures within the Indian lithosphere. Key Points: Global Navigation Satellite System data suggest the Main Himalayan Thrust is highly coupled along its entire lengthPreviously inferred low coupling zones are possible manifestations of block modeling artifactsOverriding plate deformation controls the inferred megathrust slip distribution more strongly than structures within the Indian lithosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of earthquake risk at the national scale is crucial for the design and implementation of risk reduction measures. Due to its location in the southwest of the Eurasian plate, Portugal is exposed to moderate to strong seismic events, such as the well-known 1755 Lisbon earthquake. We reviewed existing studies covering exposure, seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment for Portugal, and performed probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analyses for the country using new model components. These include a new exposure model developed for the residential building stock using the 2021 national Building Census Survey, a recent exposure model for commercial and industrial buildings, updated vulnerability functions for 116 building classes, and the recently released European Probabilistic Seismic Hazard model. The seismic risk results include average annual economic losses, fatalities, buildings with complete damage, and population left homeless. These results allowed the identification of the regions in Portugal with the highest earthquake risk, as well as which building classes contribute the most to the overall impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ambient seismic noise has proven to be a particularly effective tool for subsurface imaging in the last decades, with applications ranging from near surface imaging, to crustal or upper mantle tomography. Fundamentally, it relies on the cross correlations of continuous recordings of ground motion data at pairs of seismic stations. Processing steps have become more refined and promising in extracting meaningful signals that can further be used in a range of classic seismology tools. The processing, however, is usually cumbersome, time- and memory-consuming, as it requires years of continuous noise recorded at broadband seismic stations, to obtain high signal-to-noise ratio empirical Green's functions. In order to ease the research effort, we built a database of ambient seismic noise cross correlations between pairs of broadband seismic stations that operated in Central and Eastern Europe between 1999 and 2020. The database is part of the Eastern European Ambient Seismic Noise (EENSANE) research project hosted by the National Institute of Earth Physics in Romania and will progressively grow as more stations become available, such as those provided by the new AdriaArray network. Based on this database and using state-of-the-art inversion techniques, we developed a series of near-surface and crustal tomography models of the Eastern European craton, the Trans-European Suture Zone and younger accreted terranes from Central Europe. Our integrated models provide both isotropic and azimuthally anisotropic seismic velocities from surface wave dispersion and attenuation parameters from the decay envelopes of Rayleigh waves. Using horizontal-to-vertical ratios of ambient noise, we also recovered the fundamental frequency of resonance and near surface shear wave velocity models beneath stations located across the Carpathian Orogen. Based on cross-correlation functions, we were also able to retrieve the seismic wavefield and peak ground displacement amplitudes from past earthquakes decades after their occurrence, offering a chance for improving seismic hazard and risk models in seismically vulnerable and developing regions of Europe. Our multidisciplinary results prove the versatility of ambient noise uses and the importance of the EENSANE database for a wide range of seismological imaging and hazard applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Penacova-Régua-Verin (PRV) and the Manteigas-Vilariça-Bragança (MVB) are two of the longest faults of the Iberian Peninsula. These faults striking NNE–SSW, over lengths of >200 km, were developed during late-Variscan Orogeny and reactivated in response to the Alpine Cycle tectonics. Their tectonic evolution during Alpine compression (Cenozoic) and their implication in the active tectonic activity of Iberia are under discussion. Their recent tectonic activity is recorded in the vertical offset of geomorphological surfaces, in the associated pull-apart basins, and in M > 7 paleoseismic events. Based on the vertical surface offset of Pliocene surfaces (140–300 m for the MVB fault and 150–200 m for the PRV), together with the horizontal offset (1300–1600 m for MVBF fault and 600–1400 m for PRVF), we can conclude that they were reactivated as left-lateral strike-slip faults with a reverse component during the Pliocene (3.6 Ma)–present. These results indicate that these faults are not related to the strain transmission during the collision with Eurasia (Eocene–Oligocene). However, they are related to the intraplate strain of the southern collision with the African plate during the Upper Neogene. The estimated slip-rate is 0.2–0.5 mm/a for both faults. These slip-rates evidence important implications for the seismic hazard of this intraplate region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building resilient infrastructure is at the core of sustainable development, as evidenced by the UN Sustainable Development Goal 9. In fact, the effective operation of road networks is crucial and strategic for the smooth functioning of a nation's economy. This is also fundamental from a sustainability perspective, as efficient transportation networks reduce traffic, and thus, their environmental impact. However, road networks are constantly at risk of traffic closure and/or limitations due to a plurality of natural hazards. These environmental stressors, among other factors like aging and degradation of structural materials, negatively affect the disaster resilience of both single components and the system of road networks. However, the estimation of such resilience indices requires a broad multidisciplinary vision. In this work, a framework for application to large road networks is delineated. In the proposed methodology, seismic hazard is considered, and its corresponding impacts on road networks are evaluated. The assessment encompasses not only the road network system (including squares, roads, bridges, and viaducts) but also the buildings that are located in the urban area and interact with the network. In this context, the probability that buildings will suffer seismic-induced collapse and produce partial or total obstruction of roads is considered. This scheme is designed for implementation in different geographical contexts using geo-referenced data that include information about specific risks and alternative rerouting options. The proposed methodology is expected to support the mitigation of functionality loss in road networks after disasters, contributing to both the economic and social dimensions of sustainability. To evaluate the methodology, two case studies focusing specifically on hospital-to-hospital connections were conducted in Naples and Turin, Italy. However, the proposed approach is versatile and can be extended to other critical infrastructures, such as theatres, stadiums, and educational facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Delhi and its surrounding region are among the important intraplate seismically active regions of India. According to the Bureau of Indian Standards, it lies in seismic zone IV and is capable of generating small to moderate earthquakes. This region has also experienced moderate to large earthquakes in the past due to its proximity to the Himalayan arc and its own tectonics. There is an urgent need to assess the source characteristics of earthquakes and their scaling relationships for a reliable and accurate estimation of seismic hazard. Source parameters and their scaling relations have been estimated for this region using well-located small to moderate earthquakes (Mw 2.3–5.1) that occurred during the period from 2000 to 2020. For this purpose, we investigated three components of earthquake waveform data using the ω−2 source model. The outcomes show the occurrence of low static stress drop (0.5–52.87 ​bars) in the Delhi region indicating approximately 57% of the events exhibit a stress drop < 10 ​bars, 27 % of events fall in the range of 10–20 ​bars, and only 16 % events exhibit stress drop > 20 ​bars. This observation suggests that the shallow subsurface of the study region may have low-strength material characteristics and a heterogeneous nature. In addition, the Zuniga parameter (ε) is estimated less than 1.0 by analyzing static and apparent stress drops, which infers the partial stress drop model fits very well in the study region. The seismic moment varies from 1.02×1012 to 1.03×1016 ​N.m. for P-wave and 6.46×1011 Nm to 7.54×1015 Nm for S-wave. The average seismic source radius lies in the range of 0.1–3.05 ​km with a ratio {r(p)/r(s)} of 1.5 ​km in the study region. The estimated values of corner frequency are comparatively lower for the S-wave (1.5–18.2 ​Hz) than for the P-wave (1.88–19.3 ​Hz) suggesting the ‘shifting properties’ of the corner frequency corroborated with the theoretical agreement. The seismic energy (E) is estimated using both P- and S-wave separately and its average value varies from 4.28×106 to 6.22×1011 ​J. The estimated stress drop and seismic moment demonstrate no correlation with each other. Therefore small to moderate-size earthquakes inherently follow the self-similarity behavior. The obtained scaling relationship between Seismic Moment and Corner Frequency is Mo=7.94∗1015fc−2.97. The derived scaling relations and source parameters are expected to provide a priori information for the assessment of seismic hazards and are useful in the simulation of strong ground motion characteristics in the region.

Mathura city, located in Uttar Pradesh, India, faces a high earthquake risk due to its proximity to earthquake-prone regions, population growth, and nearby seismic sources. This study aims to assess seismic hazard by estimating Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values for a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, with a return period of 2475 years. Using Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA), we created seismic hazard maps and spectral acceleration response curves. Since we lacked region-specific Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), a logic tree approach consisting of four different models to estimate PGA values was used, each assigned a weight based on likelihood. Our analysis predicts future PGAs from 0.14 to 0.35 g. The study identifies the northern parts of Mathura, including Bajna, Nauhjhil, Surir, Shahpur, and Kosi, as more vulnerable to seismic hazards. The seismic hazard maps were divided into three regions, and the site-specific spectral acceleration responses were produced with IS-1893, Part 1 (2016) for 5% damping, assuming bedrock conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

b-value analysis obtained using earthquake catalogues has been associated with stress accumulation for a very long time. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of the b-value, also known as the frequency magnitude distribution factor, was calculated and examined before and after the February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6). For this, all earthquakes that occurred between 1900 and the earthquakes of February 6, 2023, and all aftershocks that occurred until September 1, 2023, were used. A circular area with a radius of 300 km, including nearby active faults from the center of the first earthquake to the center of the second earthquake, was divided into grids of equal size. The b-value was calculated for each grid using the maximum likelihood method. Very low b values were detected in the area where the first earthquake occurred, and it was observed that the b-value decreased relatively in the area where the second earthquake occurred. From the change in b-value over time, it was determined that the b-value has decreased significantly in recent years. This situation is associated with stress accumulation in the area where both earthquakes occurred, especially the low b values of the region where the first earthquake occurred. The fact that b values obtained using aftershocks are still low suggests that stress in the region is not completely released, has not been completely relieved and aftershocks will continue for a long time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substantial degradation can occur to warm permafrost due to changes in surface conditions resulting from infrastructure development and climate warming. The associated geohazards, including differential settlement, slope instability, and liquefaction of degraded, unconsolidated materials in seismically active warm permafrost regions, pose substantial threats to the built infrastructure. Among them, seismic hazards of degraded permafrost have received little attention. This paper aims to provide a case study of an airport built on warm permafrost about 80 years ago, focusing on climate changes, permafrost degradation, and observed seismic hazards during a strong earthquake. The study site, that is, the Northway Airport, is located in a discontinuous permafrost area in Interior Alaska. Geotechnical data from 1973, 1991, and 2005 were compiled and analyzed to reveal permafrost degradation at various surface conditions, and are compared with the well-known degradation data from a site in Fairbanks. Furthermore, the responses of the airport runway during the 2002 Denali earthquake (Mw = 7.9), including liquefaction and lateral spreading displacements, are described and analyzed. And the seismic hazards of civilian airports built on permafrost across Alaska are surveyed. Distinct trends are revealed in two periods, namely, from 1943 to 1975 and from 1976 to 2021, for air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. Permafrost tables were observed to drop with time at various rates for different surface conditions. Liquefaction and lateral spreading were observed extensively during the earthquake. The locations of observed liquefaction at the airport are mapped, and the lateral spreading displacements are estimated based on available photos. The standard penetration test data collected during geotechnical investigations are analyzed, and a liquefiable layer is identified at the talik between the active layer and the permafrost table. Moreover, 55% of Alaska's civilian airports are in permafrost areas. Among them, two-thirds fall within seismic zones with a risk level of 3 or above. This study demonstrates the high seismic risks of degraded permafrost and its potential impact on the built infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interdependent infrastructure systems play a critical role in the normal operation and postdisaster emergency response in modern cities. However, they are vulnerable to earthquakes throughout their service life, resulting in substantial economic losses and public safety concerns. The threat posed by earthquakes underscores the necessity of implementing risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, an emergency resilience-driven decision model is proposed to address the optimization problem of seismic retrofitting of infrastructure systems. Two types of interdependencies are introduced to reflect the interaction within the infrastructure systems. Then, a resilience metric based on weighted emergency connectivity efficiency is defined to evaluate the ability of a community to provide emergency services under earthquake risks. In addition, a mathematical model and its solution algorithm are developed to maximize emergency resilience benefits while minimizing retrofitting costs, considering resource and probabilistic performance constraints during the emergency response phase. To demonstrate the applicability of the decision model, a case study is conducted on the Centerville community under seismic hazard. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the decision model in evaluating community emergency resilience and identifying retrofit strategies that align with both resilience benefits and cost optimization criteria. Additionally, the sensitivity analysis results indicate that the intensity of interdependency may significantly affect the optimal seismic retrofit strategies and associated resilience benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Sustainable development in urban areas requires a wide variety of current and theme-based information for efficient management and planning. In addition, researching the spatial distribution of earthquake (EQ) clusters is an important step in reducing seismic risks and EQ losses through better assessment of seismic hazards, therefore it is desirable to acquire an uncontaminated database of seismic activity. Quarry blasts (QBs) conducted over the mapped area have tainted the seismicity inventory in the northwestern region of Egypt, which is the focus of this paper. Separating these QBs from the EQs is hence preferable for accurate seismicity and risk assessments. Consequently, we present a highly effective ML model for cleaning up the seismicity database, allowing for the accurate delineation of EQ clusters using data from a single seismic station, “AYT”, which is part of the Egyptian National Seismic Network. The magnitudes $$\le 3$$ ≤ 3 that are very uncertain as EQs or QBs and need a significant amount of time to analyze are the primary focus of the model. In order to find the best way to classify EQs and QBs, the method looks at a number of ML models before settling on the best one using eight features. The results show that the suggested method, which uses the quadratic discrimination analysis model for discriminating, successfully separates EQs and QBs with a 99.4% success rate.

Abstract Earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation are crucial aspects of social welfare that significantly impact national public security. This paper presents a seismic risk assessment and hazard prediction of the Hunhe Fault in the Shengyang-Fushun (Shen-Fu) New District. The target area is at risk of seismic damage due to two major branch ruptures, namely, F9 and F1; these ruptures have the potential to generate maximum earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.0 in the next 50 to 100 years. A three-dimensional underground velocity structure and asperity source model were established for the target faults. Subsequently, a hybrid technique combining deterministic and empirical approaches was employed to simulate the broadband strong ground motion of the target region in anticipation of the occurrence of expected scenario earthquakes. The distributions of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and peak ground displacement (PGD) for the area are provided, and the results indicate that densely populated urban areas could experience PGA values close to 280 cm/s2 along the fault traces. This study provides a reliable basis for engineering construction and urban planning in the Shen-Fu New District.

This study investigates the structure of shear-wave velocities (Vs) in the shallow layers of the Oran region, north-west of Algeria, using non-invasive techniques based on ambient vibration arrays. The region has experienced several moderate earthquakes, including the historical Oran earthquake of 1790. Ambient vibration measurements were carried out at 15 sites throughout the study area. Two methods were used: spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) and frequency–wavenumber analysis (f-k), which allowed us to better constrain Rayleigh wave dispersion curves. The inversion of the dispersion curves derived from the f-k analysis allowed for estimating the shear-wave velocity profiles and the Vs30 value at the sites under study. The other important result of the present study is an empirical equation that has been proposed to predict Vs30 in the Oran region. The determination of near-surface shear-wave velocity profiles is an important step in the assessment of seismic hazard. This study has demonstrated the effectiveness of using ambient vibration array techniques to estimate the soil Vs structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This investigation concentrates on refining the accuracy of earthquake parameters as reported by various Saudi seismic networks, addressing the significant challenges arising from data discrepancies in earthquake location, depth, and magnitude estimations. The application of sophisticated machine learning techniques, particularly the Isolation Forest algorithm, has markedly enhanced the precision in the estimation of seismicity parameters by effectively identifying and eliminating outliers and discrepancies. A newly developed and refined seismicity catalog was employed to accurately determine key seismic parameters such as the magnitude of completeness ( M c ), a-value, and b-value, thereby underlining their indispensable role in regional seismic hazard assessment. The research underscores the substantial impact of data inconsistencies on the evaluation of seismic hazards, thereby advocating for the advancement of research methodologies within the field of seismotectonics. The insights derived from this study significantly contribute to a more profound understanding of the seismotectonic processes in the region. These insights are crucial for the development of comprehensive seismic hazard assessments and the formulation of targeted earthquake preparedness strategies, thereby enhancing resilience against seismic risks in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an ongoing discussion about how to forecast the maximum magnitudes of induced earthquakes based on operational parameters, subsurface conditions and physical process understanding. Although the occurrence of damage caused by induced earthquakes is rare, some cases have caused significant economic loss, injuries and even loss of life. We analysed a global compilation of earthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing, geothermal reservoir stimulation, water disposal, gas storage and reservoir impoundment. Our analysis showed that maximum magnitudes scale with the characteristic length of pressure diffusion in the brittle Earth's crust. We observed an increase in the nucleation potential of larger-magnitude earthquakes with time and explained it by diffusion-controlled growth of the pressure-perturbed part of faults. Numerical and analytical fault size modelling supported our findings. Finally, we derived magnitude scaling laws to manage induced seismic hazard of upcoming energy projects prior to operation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable development in urban areas requires a wide variety of current and theme-based information for efficient management and planning. In addition, researching the spatial distribution of earthquake (EQ) clusters is an important step in reducing seismic risks and EQ losses through better assessment of seismic hazards, therefore it is desirable to acquire an uncontaminated database of seismic activity. Quarry blasts (QBs) conducted over the mapped area have tainted the seismicity inventory in the northwestern region of Egypt, which is the focus of this paper. Separating these QBs from the EQs is hence preferable for accurate seismicity and risk assessments. Consequently, we present a highly effective ML model for cleaning up the seismicity database, allowing for the accurate delineation of EQ clusters using data from a single seismic station, "AYT", which is part of the Egyptian National Seismic Network. The magnitudes ≤ 3 that are very uncertain as EQs or QBs and need a significant amount of time to analyze are the primary focus of the model. In order to find the best way to classify EQs and QBs, the method looks at a number of ML models before settling on the best one using eight features. The results show that the suggested method, which uses the quadratic discrimination analysis model for discriminating, successfully separates EQs and QBs with a 99.4% success rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—It is generally recognized that the formation of the fold-and-thrust tectonic structures of mobile belts on continents is associated with crushing and narrowing of the Earth's crust due to collision of lithospheric plates. The deformation of the Caucasian lithosphere in the recent time is generally consistent with these ideas. However, the block differentiation of the Caucasian lithosphere brings specificity into the directionality of recent vertical and horizontal movements. In this paper, we analyze vertical movements of the Caucasus estimated by means of high-precision leveling over a period of more than a century and consider their spatial correlation with the tectonics, seismicity, stress-strain state, and geophysical fields. A clear correlation indicating the deep tectonic nature of the long-term uplifts of the Caucasus crust is revealed. The differentiation of the Arabian plate movement causes partitioning of the Caucasus territory into provinces that differ by the pattern of recent movements, orientation of faults, and stress-strain state of the geomaterial. These provinces also have distinctions in seismicity in terms of the number of seismic events and focal mechanisms of the earthquakes. We propose a model of a deformation mechanism of the Greater Caucasus, which accommodates the long-term trend of the Caucasus uplift in the conditions of general shortening of the Earth's crust. The results of the analysis provide a basis for discussion of a probable mechanism of neotectonic evolution of the Greater Caucasus, which can be used in the seismic hazard assessment of the North Caucasus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we calculated the seismic intensity for the Baikal–Olekma section of the Baikal–Amur Railway based on data on seismicity on the northeastern flank of the Baikal Rift Zone in 1985–2021. During the analysis of earthquakes with an epicentral intensity higher than 4 (1484 events), we selected 270 earthquakes with Ms = 2.1–6.6, whose calculated intensity exceeded 4 points directly on the railway track from the total number of the recorded seismic events (more than 150 000 earthquakes with M ≥ 1.0). The highest intensity values (8–9) were obtained for large earthquakes close to the Baikal–Olekma section of the Baikal–Amur Railway (Δ < 10 km, Ms = 6.1–6.2). A recurrence interval of such seismic events along the considered section of the railway is 20–60 years. The data are agree well with the macroseismic data available, which confirms the correctness of the results. At the same time, macroseismic effects from strong (Ms ≥ 6.6) but remote earthquakes (Δ = 360–1000 km) were found to have no significant impact on the Baikal–Olekma section of the Baikal–Amur Railway. The calculated values of intensity and recurrence intervals of earthquakes should be taken into account when designing, constructing, and operating industrial and civil infrastructure within the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of choosing ground motions typically relies on assembling a collection of ground motions that match a desired spectrum. This selection process is guided by specific seismological criteria, including factors like earthquake magnitude, distance from the epicenter, site soil type, and the range of spectral periods that need to fit with the target spectrum. The selection algorithm and the available dataset of waveforms obviously play significant roles in this process. In many engineering and site response applications, it is essential that the input ground motion is representative for the shaking at the free surface of the Earth, and at times also a specific soil type may be required. However, real waveform databases often lack sufficient and/or consistent metadata related to the installation type and soil characterization of recording stations, as well as to the earthquake seismological parameters. This deficiency can lead to the selection of inappropriate waveforms, such as those recorded by stations situated within manmade structures (buildings, bridges, dams) or on a soil type different than the intended one. To address this issue, our approach for creating an appropriate waveform database applicable to Switzerland starts with the computation of seismic hazard disaggregation for return periods of 475 and 975 years. This computation helps identifying the magnitude-distance scenarios most relevant for the five seismic hazard zones defined in the Swiss building code. Once these magnitude-distance ranges are identified, we adhere to established standards regarding the quality control of three-component waveforms and their associated metadata. We assemble a database of waveforms by collating and homogenizing data from available global databases. In the interest of comprehensiveness, we also incorporate data obtained from 3D physics-based numerical simulations of strong-motion near the seismic source. Finally, we employ an algorithm that integrates the Eurocode 8 waveform selection criteria. This algorithm allows us to select and scale waveforms suitable for microzonation and structural analysis studies within each of Switzerland's five seismic hazard zones. Selecting waveforms compatible with the target design spectra proves to be challenging due to the stringent criteria imposed by Eurocode 8. This challenge arises from the scarcity of recorded waveforms with verified metadata and precise site characterization in the desired magnitude-distance ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iran based on a statistical procedure specifically developed to manage macroseismic intensity data. This method takes into careful consideration the specific features of such data, which are characterized as ordinal, discrete, and confined within a finite interval, ensuring a logically coherent approach throughout the analysis. The results of our assessment are then compared with hazard maps generated using a standard approach, putting in evidence significant differences both on a national scale and relative to individual cities. This comparative analysis will be useful in identifying areas of utmost concern, where further studies are strongly recommended to yield hazard estimates of greater robustness and reliability. By pinpointing these critical scenarios, we aim to guide future research endeavors towards providing more accurate and reliable seismic hazard estimates. Identifying these critical situations facilitates the prioritization of resources and interventions, ultimately enhancing seismic risk mitigation efforts across Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A crisp step function is not an adequate threshold for studies of Markovian occurrence of large earthquakes, because it can lead to missing or pseudo links in an observed sequence that should be a Markov chain. A more realistic threshold is a fuzzy one where there is a transition magnitude band, located between those magnitudes that are too small for the earthquakes to be part of a Markovian process and those who are certainly large enough for the earthquakes to be part of it, where earthquakes may or may not be part of the process. This fuzzy threshold is described by a membership function that gives the probability of an earthquake with a given magnitude belonging to the process. We propose a membership function with probabilities in the transition band proportional to the seismic moment. To estimate empirical transition probabilities when considering a fuzzy magnitude threshold, we propose a counting strategy for the observed transitions and justify it through Monte Carlo simulations. The counting strategy is illustrated by application to the model from a previous seismic study of the Japan area by testing, through Monte Carlo simulations, how well the counting strategy results resemble optimum estimations of the transition probabilities. The simulations are also used to study the behavior of three Markovianity measures, and it is found that the peak values of these measures are not useful in identifying the true transition band, but that this band may be better identified by using the whole set of values taken by each measure for different transition band models. As an illustration, the measures were applied to real data from the previous study, a short set corresponding to a single realization, and found that the behavior of the measures does not agree with those expected from a crisp threshold, but agree, within the limitations of the data, with either a fuzzy threshold going from zero probability for magnitudes M ≤ 6.9 to probability one for M ≥ 7.2 or from zero probability for magnitudes M ≤ 7.0 to probability one for M ≥ 7.2 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake-induced damage to gas pipelines can have severe economic, social, and environmental consequences. To mitigate these risks, one effective way is to carefully design the route of gas pipelines, considering the seismic hazard of the region. This paper proposes a methodology that incorporates seismic risk assessment into the process of designing gas pipeline routes. Conventional gas pipeline design methods consider only minimum distances from faults and fail to account for seismic potential. The methodology is applied to three gas pipeline routing problems in the high seismic region of southern Iran. Seismic risk is evaluated using the HAZUS method, and routing is performed through a GIS-based approach. Results are compared with conventional approaches in terms of length, seismic risks, and damage costs, showing the proposed method's effectiveness in reducing immediate consequences like leaks and breaks in gas transportation. The proposed method reduces seismic damage by 3 to 68% for routing problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is focused on an evaluation of the correlation between the soil conditions and the seismic damage observed after the Vrancea March 4, 1977 intermediate-depth earthquake in Craiova, Romania. A significant number of existing studies in the literature have focused on the evaluation of damage for Bucharest, but the effects of the 1977 earthquake in Craiova have been very rarely discussed and presented. Craiova was the second city in Romania after Bucharest in terms of building damage and casualties as a result of the 1977 Vrancea seismic event, even though it is situated at a considerable distance (more than 250 km) from the epicenter. The 1977 event affected old low-rise masonry structures located in the central part of the city, as well as low-rise unreinforced masonry structures built after 1950. The soil conditions are evaluated based on a recently compiled collection of geological, geotechnical, and ground motion data from the study area. No correlation between the earthquake observed damage andthe number of standard penetration test (SPT) blows at a depth of 6 m or the soil layer at a depth of 3 m can be inferred from the available data. Moreover, the analyses show practically no influence of the terrain slope on the ground motion amplitudes for Craiova, which is situated on the left bank of Jiu River. The vulnerability characteristics of unreinforced masonry structures from Craiova and other cities are also evaluated in this study. The relative frequencies of unreinforced masonry structures having increased damage degrees is significantly larger for the Iasi and Craiova data sets. Finally, an estimation of the peak ground accelerations in four cities in Romania is evaluated based on the damage of unreinforced masonry structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In relation to its rapid infrastructure expansion, exemplified by projects like the Najran Valley Dam or the rehabilitation of agricultural terraces, Saudi Arabia stands out among the Arabian Gulf nations. To mitigate the earthquake-related risks effectively, it is imperative to conduct an exhaustive analysis of its natural hazards. The southwesternmost region of Saudi Arabia is the main subject area of this study for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), which aims to identify the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values. The investigation encompasses a 10% and 5% probability of occurrence over a 50-year exposure time for both B/C and C NEHRP soils. In order to take into account the earthquake activity that takes place in the vicinity of the Red Sea Rift, which in fact may have an impact on the seismic hazard in this active tectonic region, different seismic source zones were especially designed for this evaluation. Various characteristics such as the uncertainties related to the b-value, the expected maximum magnitude, and different ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) were integrated using a logic tree scheme. Additionally, regression relationships between the computed ground motion values were established, and a novel design response spectrum was developed and recommended for several cities. Regarding the key findings, it is significant to highlight that the seismic hazard decreases towards the northeast, when moving away from the Red Sea Rift, confirming anticipated trends where proximity to the rift corresponds to increased seismic hazard. Notably, cities such as Farasan Island, Jazan, Al Qunfundhah, Al Lith and Al Birk present the highest observed hazard values among all the cities analyzed. For these cities, the obtained maximum SA values for both 475 and 975 years under B/C site conditions are as follows: 0.268 g and 0.412 g, 0.121 g and 0.167 g, 0.099 g and 0.150 g, 0.083 g and 0.135 g, and 0.066 g and 0.118 g, respectively. These results emphasize the crucial necessity of adequately evaluating and thoroughly updating the seismic hazard inherent to these particular areas to enhance the risk reduction and disaster readiness initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geodetically‐derived deformation rates are sometimes used to infer seismic hazard, implicitly assuming that short‐term (annual‐decadal) deformation is representative of longer‐term deformation. This is despite geological observations indicating that deformation/slip rates are variable over a range of timescales. Using geodetic data from 2016 to 2021, we observe an up to 7‐fold increase in vertical deformation rate in mid‐2019 across the Pisia‐Skinos normal fault in Greece. We hypothesize that this deformation is aseismic as there is no temporally correlated increase in the earthquake activity (M > 1). We explore four possible physical mechanisms, and our preferred hypothesis is that the transient deformation is caused by centimeter‐scale slip in the upper 5 km of the Pisia fault zone. This is the first observation of shallow tectonic (i.e., not related to human activities) aseismic deformation on a normal fault globally. Our results suggest that continental normal faults can exhibit variable deformation over shorter timescales than previously observed, and thus care should be taken when utilizing geodetic rates to quantify seismic hazard. Plain Language Summary: Slip rates of active faults are used in seismic hazard assessment to infer the frequency of damaging earthquakes. However slip rates are known to be variable when measured using different methodologies (e.g., geodesy, geomorphology) and timescales (years to millennia) for many types of faults in a range of tectonic settings. Hence we need to observe slip rates for different time scales and try to understand the mechanism(s) that cause slip rates to vary. In this paper, we present observations of vertical deformation around an active normal fault in the Gulf of Corinth, Greece. We see that the deformation is non‐uniform during 2016–2021 (the time period of data availability), and we analyze the data to find that the deformation rate increased in mid‐2019. To try and understand the physical mechanism that may have caused this increase in deformation rate, we use simple modeling to test four different hypotheses. We find that the best fit to the observations is for centimeters of slip occurring on shallowest few kilometers of the fault. Our results highlight the importance of understanding short‐term (annual‐decadal) processes happening on active faults, and the potential pitfalls of using slip rates measured over short‐timescales to infer seismic hazard. Key Points: Spatial variations in vertical ground motion (uplift/subsidence) correlate with the mapped trace of the Pisia‐Skinos fault in GreeceThe ground deformation is non‐uniform over the 6 years studied, and shows an up to 7× increase in rate, lasting at least 3 yearsThis transient interseismic deformation is hypothesized to be caused by shallow aseismic centimeter‐scale slip on the Pisia‐Skinos fault [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic risk assessment in school buildings is critical for ensuring the safety and resilience of educational institutions against seismic events. This paper presents a new seismic risk methodology named MM Risk and comparative study with Adriseismic methodology used for seismic risk assessment. The study aims to provide insights into the effectiveness and reliability of these methods in evaluating the seismic vulnerability of school buildings. Through a comprehensive review of the existing literature and application on a dataset of 213 schools (367 buildings), this paper evaluates the strengths and limitations of each method in terms of accuracy, complexity, and practical applicability. The results show that by integrating the approach of Adriseismic methodology and incorporating extensions related to irregularities, the social risk component (number of users), and the ability to assess different types of structures, a comprehensive and tailored methodology for assessing seismic risk can be developed. This is important since these factors are strongly influencing the seismic risk of schools as connected systems. Furthermore, this paper explores the implications of these findings for improving seismic risk mitigation strategies in school buildings. MM Risk methodology places over 70% of school buildings in the medium seismic risk category and 27% in the high seismic risk category. On the other hand, the Adriseismic methodology is more stringent, classifying 60% of school buildings into high and very-high risk categories. This disparity undoubtedly influences the prioritization list for seismic risk mitigation measures. However, definitely the comparative analysis presented in this paper offers valuable guidance for engineers, policymakers, and stakeholders involved in the seismic retrofitting and design of school buildings, ultimately contributing to the enhancement of seismic resilience in educational infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present earthquake scenarios developed to accompany the release of the 2023 update to the US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Scenarios can serve a range of local and regional needs, from developing proactive-targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk to aiding emergency management planning. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to communicate seismic hazard and risk to audiences who are not well versed in methods, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Specifically, we discuss the scenarios developed, challenges, and lessons learned in the development process, and how this work aided the development of the 2023 NSHM itself. In total, 28 scenarios were developed for Hawaii, Utah, Alaska, and Virginia considering the 2023 NSHM science, past scenario efforts, and input from local experts and stakeholders. Finally, we investigate how NSHM modeling decisions can change estimated impacts to Utah and Hawaii in more detail showing, for example, that a shallower dip of the Wasatch fault under Salt Lake City can increase predicted ground-motion intensities and therefore estimated losses and deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Before the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake, the effects of multiple cascading hazards on bridge performance and the associated functionalities of road networks must be assessed to develop recovery strategies. This paper presents a framework for assessing the probabilistic connectivity of road networks exposed to both ground motion and tsunami, considering the spatial correlations among hazard intensities. To evaluate the joint probabilities of bridge states (i.e., passable and impassable states) and the probabilistic connectivity of road networks, the total probability theorem was used to integrate spatially correlated seismic and tsunami hazard assessments into the fragility estimates that consider the cascading effects of ground motion and tsunami-induced damages to bridges. For illustrative purposes, the probabilistic connectivity of hypothetical road networks in Japan that could be affected by both ground motion and tsunami during the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake was assessed using the proposed method. The results showed that seismic retrofitting of bridges located along the route where the probability of impassable states due to tsunami is very low can enhance the probabilistic connectivity of entire road networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale surface rupture caused by destructive earthquakes causes serious damage to major projects and requires the estimation of the permanent displacement of the ground surface caused by seismic rupture to take effective measures to reduce the effect of disasters. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a system for assessing the permanent displacement of the ground surface due to seismic rupture, which will be applicable to earthquake engineering. The system takes the physical process of earthquake occurrence as the theoretical basis, comprehensively analyzes the seismic activity, seismic geologic environment, fault activity characteristics, tectonic stress field, and GPS observation data, and evaluates the strong earthquake-prone sections of active faults through motion dynamics simulation. Then, referring to the statistical relationships between historical earthquakes, modern earthquakes, and ancient earthquakes, a model of earthquake occurrence is determined. We combine it with the results of seismic hazard analysis and select different methods of evaluating permanent surface displacements caused by seismic rupture at near-fault sites and far-from-fault sites through suitability analysis. We apply the proposed assessment system for example validation and find that the characteristics of the obtained permanent displacement field of the ground surface caused by seismic rupture are basically consistent with actual engineering laws. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To estimate the connectivity of a road network, it is crucial to evaluate the correlation of hazard intensities among individual bridge locations since the probability of multiple bridges being damaged simultaneously depends on the degree of this correlation. However, research on connectivity assessment of bridge networks considering spatial correlations associated with flood intensities is scarce in the literature. When quantifying the spatial correlation of flood intensities, modeling based on the stream distance rather than the Euclidean distance is required, taking into account that river flow is restricted only within the stream network. To achieve this purpose, a novel methodology is proposed to evaluate the spatial correlation of a stream network based on a geostatistical linear model and stream network covariance models. In addition, this study considers the spatial correlation of seismic hazard intensity. With the proposed method, it is possible to identify which bridges play an important role in ensuring the connectivity of the road network under multiple hazards, i.e. flood and seismic. As an illustrative example, the proposed method is applied to a hypothetical bridge network in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan. The results demonstrate that improved network connectivity can be achieved by implementing a relevant retrofitting strategy for important bridges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Laboratory and field tests were performed on sandy soils from six Pleistocene-age sites in the South Carolina coastal region to investigate the age-related resistance to liquefaction. Stress-controlled cyclic triaxial tests were used to determine the cyclic strength of soils with geologic ages ranging from approximately 59,000 to 1,200,000 years. Three sites have evidence of liquefaction in the form of sand blows that are 467 to 4,185 years old as determined from C14 dating of embedded organic material. The other three sites show no indications of liquefaction. Cyclic stress ratios ranging from 0.095 to 0.225 were applied to undisturbed and reconstituted soil specimens that were consolidated to an effective stress equal to 100 kPa. Soil specimen liquefaction was defined to occur when the excess pore pressure was equal to the confining effective stress. Estimates of the at-rest earth pressure coefficient were determined using measurements from the flat plate dilatometer and the cone penetrometer and were applied to the laboratory cyclic stress ratio occurring at the 15th loading cycle to determine the laboratory–field equivalent cyclic resistance ratio. The age-dependent liquefaction resistance was determined using additional data from the inner coastal plain of South Carolina and assessing the cyclic resistance ratios and their associated KDR ratios relative to the base data and applying one of the more recently developed liquefaction triggering model. It was found that the development of the aging factor should be independent of the liquefaction triggering model. Subsequently, the aging factor is developed using an offset that is constrained at 20 years and a KDR=1.0 , and was found to range from 1.00 at 20 years to 1.45 at 1.0 Ma for the original deposition ages of the soils and 1.00 at 20 years to 1.51 at 1.0 Ma for the data set consisting of the last disturbance and original deposition ages of the soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study illustrates the main results of an extensive campaign of numerical simulations aimed at quantifying the seismic reliability of reinforced concrete (RC) bare and masonry-infilled frames compliant with the current Italian Building Code. For this purpose, a set of different residential-use archetype structures are considered, and a prototype seismic design-assessment tool is created to quantify their performance with respect to the relevant limit states, deriving fragility curves via the execution of several non-linear time-history analyses (NLTHAs). The fragilities are subsequently combined with the hazard curves derived for each of the over 8000 Italian municipalities based on the national seismic hazard model currently in force to obtain the respective seismic mean failure rates across Italy. The seismic reliability maps obtained for the investigated code-compliant designs highlight how the current Italian Building Code fails to provide uniform seismic safety across Italy, showing—on the contrary—a strong hazard-dependency. The results are finally used to calibrate regression laws able to correlate the seismic mean failure rates with an intensity measure representative of the seismic hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major challenge in deep and high stress mining is managing seismic risk associated with blasting of production stopes and drift development to access the ore zones. The location, magnitude, and frequency of occurrence of seismic events are influenced by changes in stress, lithology, structure, and mining sequence rock properties such as brittleness. Mining induced seismicity can have significant safety and economic consequences for a mining operation.This paper presents a methodology for quantifying and integrating the influence of geological and structural characteristics to provide an improved understanding of the seismic hazards associated with drift development blasts. The method is based on multivariate statistics using a factor analysis of mixed data (FAMD) approach. It was demonstrated that specific geological and structural variables, at each drift segment, are correlated to the intensity of seismic responses to development blasting. A greater understanding of the critical factors provides a greater confidence in managing of seismicity. A further significant benefit is that the FAMD results can be used to prioritize the data collection for geological characterization to improve our understanding of seismic response after development blasts. This can be fully integrated in a cost benefit analysis that is critical for seismic risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Garhwal region, situated in the central segment of the Himalayas, stands as one of the most seismically active areas in the Uttarakhand Himalaya. The newly established earthquake early warning (EEW) system in the Garhwal region emphasizes the critical need for magnitude scaling relations to enable real-time estimation of earthquake size. This study employs P-wave onset data from both observed and simulated records to develop magnitude scaling relations specific to the Garhwal region. Initially, we modified the semi-empirical technique (SET) for P-wave simulation and validated this modification using the 1991 Uttarkashi (Mw6.8) and 1999 Chamoli (Mw6.4) earthquakes in the Garhwal region. The modified semi-empirical technique (MSET) demonstrates its reliability, as evidenced by the comparatively low root mean square error (RMSE) between observed and simulated records for both earthquakes. Subsequently, we apply MSET to simulate seven additional future earthquakes (Mw7.0–8.5) at the hypocentral locations of the 1991 Uttarkashi and 1999 Chamoli earthquakes. Moreover, conventional EEW parameters, such as average period (τc) and peak amplitude displacement (Pd), are extracted from 107 observed and 63 simulated P-wave onsets, utilizing a 3 s time window. Using this combined dataset of observed and simulated data, we introduce magnitude scaling relations based on the τc and Pd parameters. Subsequently, the developed scaling relations are tested to predict earthquake magnitude using the average values of estimated EEW parameters. The relatively small errors, measuring at 4.47–0.75%, and 2.45–0.60% for τc–Mw and 5.71–1.60% and 4.90–1.57% for Pd–Mw scaling relations, respectively for the Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes suggest the applicability of these proposed relations. However, the scaling relations developed tend to underestimate the magnitude of earthquakes larger than 7.5, potentially attributed to the saturation observed in these relations for big earthquakes. Additionally, the calculated lead time for future earthquakes will range from 4 to 60 s for the sites situated within epicentral distances of 56–200 km. This lead time has the potential to play a substantial role in disaster mitigation in the Garhwal region, especially in the Indo-Gangetic plains and Himalayan foothills. Hence, the development of scaling relations specific to the region is imperative for effective disaster mitigation and risk reduction in the Garhwal region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Alborz Mountains are among the areas exhibiting high tectonic and seismic activity in northern Iran. Studying key parameters of tectonic structures, including quantitative analysis and observational studies, in such active regions is essential to identify potential active faults and assess the consequent seismic hazards. This study focuses on seismicity and seismotectonics by analyzing seismic parameters, including b-value, mean seismic activity rate, earthquake recurrence time, seismic moment, and fractal dimension derived from micro and teleseismic data. The b-values vary between 0.6 and 1.1 in the tectonically active parts of the study area, corresponding with the reverse/thrust and strike-slip active faults. Large earthquakes might be prone to occur at 10–25 km depth because both catalogues show low b-values (b < 1.0) concentrations at this depth range. The high fractal dimension (> 1.5), high seismic activity rate, large seismic moment parameters, and its continuously increasing trend. Short recurrence periods (20–50 years) of M 6.5 events also emphasize the high seismic activity and high seismic hazard. On the other hand, the prevalence of low b-values is notably observed in areas encompassing densely populated cities such as Rasht, Lahijan, Amol, Babol, Sari, Behshahr, Gorgan, and the megacity of Tehran. Furthermore, we have identified asperities where the Gorgan Plain, the Khazar, and the Alamutrud Fault Zones are located. These findings emphasize the seismic hazard potential in the identified areas and urban centers within the study area. Therefore, particular attention should be directed towards areas exhibiting low b-values when assessing and mitigating seismic hazards. It underscores the necessity for additional focus on seismic hazard assessment and implementation of mitigation strategies in the Alborz region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seismicity of the Philippines and Taiwan provides insight into the tectonics and seismic hazards of a region characterized by subduction and collision. We summarize the seismotectonics of the Philippines and Taiwan by documenting the distribution of hypocenters for earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 4.6 and focal mechanisms for earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 5.0 over ∼21 years. We quantify seismicity rates (earthquake frequency) and compare seismicity distributions with proposed tectonic and faulting models. 6,187 earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 4.6 occurred between 1 January 2000 and 31 March 2021, 79% at depths <70 km and 70% having magnitudes M < 5.0. Approximately 88 earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 5.0 occur per year, with 12 events of magnitude M ≥ 7.0 occurring since January 2000. Seismic activity decreases exponentially between 50 and 210 km depth at a rate ∼10% faster than the global average. Intermediate and deep earthquakes at depths >70 km trace the Wadati‐Benioff zones of subducting slabs, most of which are only seismically active to depths of ∼250 km. The distribution of earthquakes at depths >70 km is likely influenced by the subduction of young lithosphere, slab tearing, and phase boundary interactions between depths of 410 and 660 km. Shallow earthquakes at depths ≤70 km are generated by megathrust, crustal, and intraslab faulting. Crustal thrust and strike‐slip faulting are the most abundant and prevalent sources of damaging earthquakes. The Philippines and Taiwan are subject to high seismic risk, similar to nearby Indonesia. Plain Language Summary: The Philippines‐Taiwan region is tectonically active with frequent earthquakes. We summarize the geographical distribution, sources, and frequency of earthquakes in the region over 21 years, compare distributions to proposed tectonic models, and investigate earthquake hazards. This region experiences on average 88 earthquakes per year of magnitudes ≥5.0. Twelve events of magnitudes ≥7.0 occurred between January 2000 and March 2021. Most earthquake activity is shallow and occurs at depths ≤70 km. In some regions, such as Southern Mindanao in the Philippines, seismicity extends to depths >600 km. Shallow earthquakes are generated by various faulting sources, and seismic hazards are abundant and seismic risk is high, as several population centers are located near active faults. Key Points: We summarize seismotectonics of the Philippines‐Taiwan region using hypocenters, focal mechanisms, seafloor age, and tectonic modelsShallow seismicity is abundant, consisting of thrust, strike‐slip, and normal faulting, which all pose serious seismic hazardsSubduction zone seismicity occurs at depths ∼100–250 km for young (20–40 Ma) oceanic lithosphere, and up to 680 km for older (60–80 Ma) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explosions and other artificial seismic sources remain a major risk to human survival. Seismicity catalogs often suffer from contamination, which hinders the differentiation of tectonic and non-tectonic events. To address this issue, an automated control system is developed employing machine learning (ML) techniques to discriminate between earthquakes and quarry blasts (QBs). By using ML approaches, such as probabilistic and statistical techniques, QBs can be differentiated from natural earthquakes. The proposed method utilizes latitude, longitude, and magnitude information to improve the performance. Evaluation measures, including R2, F1-score, MCC score, and others, are employed to assess the algorithm's effectiveness. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the suggested method, achieving a success rate of 97.21%. The developed algorithm has significant potential for enhancing seismic hazard assessment, supporting urban development planning, and promoting safer communities by accurately discriminating between man-made and natural earthquake events.