Development of region specific earthquake early warning scaling relations for the Garhwal region using observed and simulated datasets: a step forward to disaster mitigation.

The Garhwal region, situated in the central segment of the Himalayas, stands as one of the most seismically active areas in the Uttarakhand Himalaya. The newly established earthquake early warning (EEW) system in the Garhwal region emphasizes the critical need for magnitude scaling relations to enable real-time estimation of earthquake size. This study employs P-wave onset data from both observed and simulated records to develop magnitude scaling relations specific to the Garhwal region. Initially, we modified the semi-empirical technique (SET) for P-wave simulation and validated this modification using the 1991 Uttarkashi (Mw6.8) and 1999 Chamoli (Mw6.4) earthquakes in the Garhwal region. The modified semi-empirical technique (MSET) demonstrates its reliability, as evidenced by the comparatively low root mean square error (RMSE) between observed and simulated records for both earthquakes. Subsequently, we apply MSET to simulate seven additional future earthquakes (Mw7.0–8.5) at the hypocentral locations of the 1991 Uttarkashi and 1999 Chamoli earthquakes. Moreover, conventional EEW parameters, such as average period (τc) and peak amplitude displacement (Pd), are extracted from 107 observed and 63 simulated P-wave onsets, utilizing a 3 s time window. Using this combined dataset of observed and simulated data, we introduce magnitude scaling relations based on the τc and Pd parameters. Subsequently, the developed scaling relations are tested to predict earthquake magnitude using the average values of estimated EEW parameters. The relatively small errors, measuring at 4.47–0.75%, and 2.45–0.60% for τc–Mw and 5.71–1.60% and 4.90–1.57% for Pd–Mw scaling relations, respectively for the Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes suggest the applicability of these proposed relations. However, the scaling relations developed tend to underestimate the magnitude of earthquakes larger than 7.5, potentially attributed to the saturation observed in these relations for big earthquakes. Additionally, the calculated lead time for future earthquakes will range from 4 to 60 s for the sites situated within epicentral distances of 56–200 km. This lead time has the potential to play a substantial role in disaster mitigation in the Garhwal region, especially in the Indo-Gangetic plains and Himalayan foothills. Hence, the development of scaling relations specific to the region is imperative for effective disaster mitigation and risk reduction in the Garhwal region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]