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The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) is a national prospective study of adults at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) comprising 14 established United States (US) prospective cohort studies. For decades, C4R cohorts have collected extensive data on clinical and subclinical diseases and their risk factors, including behavior, cognition, biomarkers, and social determinants of health. C4R will link this pre-COVID phenotyping to information on SARS-CoV-2 infection and acute and post-acute COVID-related illness. C4R is largely population-based, has an age range of 18-108 years, and broadly reflects the racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geographic diversity of the US. C4R is ascertaining severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and COVID-19 illness using standardized questionnaires, ascertainment of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths, and a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey via dried blood spots. Master protocols leverage existing robust retention rates for telephone and in-person examinations, and high-quality events surveillance. Extensive pre-pandemic data minimize referral, survival, and recall bias. Data are being harmonized with research-quality phenotyping unmatched by clinical and survey-based studies; these will be pooled and shared widely to expedite collaboration and scientific findings. This unique resource will allow evaluation of risk and resilience factors for COVID-19 severity and outcomes, including post-acute sequelae, and assessment of the social and behavioral impact of the pandemic on long-term trajectories of health and aging.

Asian Americans (AsA), Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders (NHPI) comprise 7.7% of the U.S. population, and AsA have had the fastest growth rate since 2010. Yet the National Institutes of Health (NIH) has invested only 0.17% of its budget on AsA and NHPI research between 1992 and 2018. More than 40 ethnic subgroups are included within AsA and NHPI (with no majority subpopulation), which are highly diverse culturally, demographically, linguistically, and socioeconomically. However, data for these groups are often aggregated, masking critical health disparities and their drivers. To address these issues, in March 2021, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, in partnership with 8 other NIH institutes, convened a multidisciplinary workshop to review current research, knowledge gaps, opportunities, barriers, and approaches for prevention research for AsA and NHPI populations. The workshop covered 5 domains: 1) sociocultural, environmental, psychological health, and lifestyle dimensions; 2) metabolic disorders; 3) cardiovascular and lung diseases; 4) cancer; and 5) cognitive function and healthy aging. Two recurring themes emerged: Very limited data on the epidemiology, risk factors, and outcomes for most conditions are available, and most existing data are not disaggregated by subgroup, masking variation in risk factors, disease occurrence, and trajectories. Leveraging the vast phenotypic differences among AsA and NHPI groups was identified as a key opportunity to yield novel clues into etiologic and prognostic factors to inform prevention efforts and intervention strategies. Promising approaches for future research include developing collaborations with community partners, investing in infrastructure support for cohort studies, enhancing existing data sources to enable data disaggregation, and incorporating novel technology for objective measurement. Research on AsA and NHPI subgroups is urgently needed to eliminate disparities and promote health equity in these populations.

Recent results from 5 decades of Framingham Heart Study (FHS) data suggest former heavy smokers (≥20 pack-years) have higher ASCVD risk than never smokers up to 16 years after quitting. However, the ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus, which is based on the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) does not account for pack-years smoked and considers former smokers to have ASCVD risk equal to never smokers after 5 years quit. Using data from 18,400 person-exams (exams 1-8) on 3,908 white FHS Offspring cohort participants, and follow-up through 12/31/2016, we built 5 sex-specific ASCVD risk prediction models to assess the added value of smoking history data. Models used pooled repeated Cox proportional hazards regression with 10-year follow-up blocks and age, SBP, antihypertensive medications, diabetes, total and HDL cholesterol, lipid-lowering medications, smoking status, pack-years smoked, and years since quitting smoking as predictors. We refit the 2013 PCE in the FHS person-exam sample (model 1) for fair model comparison. Subsequent models refit model 1 with continuous predictors on their natural scale (i.e., not logarithmically transformed) with polynomials to account for nonlinearity (model 2), and cumulatively adjusted for: former smoking (model 3), pack-years smoked (model 4), and years since quitting (model 5). We compared models by change in c-index, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI(>0)), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (rIDI).We included 1,895 men (358 events) and 2,013 women (197 events) with a mean age of 55 years and similar risk factor profiles. Over pooled examinations, ever smoking prevalence was high in men (77%) and women (78%), as was median pack-years smoked (M:39; W:32). Utilizing former smoking status, pack-years, and years quit (model 5) had significant but modest NRI(>0) and rIDI values compared to the 2013 PCE on the natural scale in both sexes {Men: NRI(>0)=0.23, rIDI=0.19; Women: NRI(>0)=0.34, rIDI=0.11); the change in c-index (0.01) was significant only in men}. Pack-years smoked and years since quitting improved ASCVD risk prediction significantly but modestly in our sample. If validated in other race/ethnicity groups, these variables should be considered for improving ASCVD risk prediction tools.

Hispanics/Latinos are expected to constitute 25% of the U.S. population by 2060. Differences in the prevalence of health risk factors, chronic diseases, and access to and utilization of health-care services between Hispanics/Latinos and other populations in the U.S. have been documented. This study aimed to describe and analyze the landscape of Research Program Grants (RPGs) funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) between 2008 and 2015 involving Hispanic/Latino health research in six health condition areas—asthma, cancer, dementia, diabetes, liver/gallbladder disease, and obesity—and to identify opportunities for continued research in these areas. Using an NIH internal search engine, we identified new and renewal Hispanic/Latino health RPGs searching for specific Hispanic/Latino identifiers in the Title, Abstract, and Specific Aims. We used descriptive statistics to examine the distribution of funded RPGs by NIH disease-based classification codes for the six health condition areas of interest, and other selected characteristics. The most prominent clusters of research subtopics were identified within each health condition area, and performance sites were mapped at the city level. Within the selected time frame, 3,221 Hispanic/Latino health-related unique RPGs were funded (constituting 4.4% of all funded RPGs), and of those 625 RPGs were eligible for review and coding in the present study. Cancer and obesity were the most commonly studied health condition areas (72%), while studies on mechanisms of disease—biological and non-biological—(72.6%), behavioral research (42.1%) and epidemiological studies (38.1%) were the most common types of research. Most of the primary performance sites were in California, Texas, the northeastern U.S., and Illinois. The predominance of mechanistic, behavioral, and epidemiological studies in our analysis poses opportunities to evaluate knowledge gained and their clinical application, explore new research questions, or to update some methods or instruments. The findings of the present study suggest opportunities to expand research in understudied mechanisms of disease that could explain differences in prevalence of conditions like diabetes and cancer among different heritage groups. In addition, our findings suggest that the impact of interventions or policies designed to reduce health disparities, innovative multi-level interventions, implementation and dissemination studies, the role of health information technology on health outcomes, and the intersectionality of individual, sociocultural, geographic, and other factors on health outcomes, among others, are understudied approaches, which could potentially advance research in Hispanic/Latino health and contribute to the achievement of better health outcomes in this diverse population.

Background: Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are at high risk of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity/mortality. The ACCORD trial (NCT00000620) tested intensive glycemic, lipid and blood pressure interventions on major CV events in 10,251 T2D patients with baseline HbA1c concentration >7.5%. Despite its landmark findings, a data-driven systematic evaluation of predictors for major cardiovascular events among hundreds of ACCORD variables has not been conducted. Methods: Random Survival Forest (RSF), a machine-learning method for survival analysis, identified important predictors for total mortality (TM), CV death (CVd), hospitalization/death due to heart failure (hdHF), fatal/non-fatal stroke (CVA), non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and MACE (composite of CVd, MI and CVA). Among 378 risk factors, including some highly correlated features, the top-ranked predictors (collected at baseline or derived from repeated measures prior to events) were selected, resulting in a hierarchy of predictive variables. Effects of RSF-selected predictors were then evaluated by multivariate Cox Proportional Hazards Models. Results: Table 1 presented the top ten predictors for six major events. Variables associated with changes in renal function predicted TM, CVd, and hdHF with ~90% accuracy. Insulin use was an important predictor along with predefined composite renal microvascular events for MI, CVA and MACE (74-79% accuracy). The Cox regression models based on RSF variable selection yielded similar findings for these important predictors of events. Conclusions: RSF approach revealed that insulin use and overt renal microvascular events were predictors for the occurrence of MI, stroke, and MACE in T2D patients. Moreover, dynamic changes in urinary renal function biomarkers had additional predictive values for fatal events. These results provide important clinical insights for reducing CV events in Type 2 diabetes patients.

Introduction: An objective of the Meta-AnalyTical Interagency Group (MATIG) is to conduct patient-level meta-analyses of cardiovascular outcomes using data from publicly available repositories. We describe challenges with data re-use from a seminal trial, provide a systematic approach to identify and curate data elements for hypothesis generation, and establish stackable trials to support these analyses. Methods: We used data from the ACCORD trial to assess risk factors and their gender specific differences for the event of hospitalization or death due to heart failure (hdHF), in patients with type 2 diabetes*. We identified the data elements needed to answer the research questions, reviewed the trial protocol to verify definitions, extracted patient-level data, performed quality assessment and statistical analysis. The results showed a gender difference in the effect of intensive vs. standard glucose-lowering therapy on hdHF. To validate the findings, we sought additional trials in BioLINCC to develop a compendium for meta-analysis, and repeated these steps for each trial. Results: Challenges for reusing the ACCORD trial included access to complete patient-level data and metadata. The compendium, developed to evaluate the stackability** of data across trials, identified differences in trial designs, patient populations, study interventions, and data elements that may impact the feasibility and interpretation of meta-analysis. An example of compendium components is shown in Table 1. Conclusion: High-quality metadata facilitate re-use of trial repository data. This compendium standardizes common data elements for gender, racial and age-group specific outcome assessment in major clinical trials. It provides the framework to assess the fitness of trials for patient-level meta-analyses. Efforts are underway by MATIG to expand the compendium to include risk factors and major cardiovascular outcomes across multiple large trials for meta-analysis.

Objective To describe and elucidate the time trends of the academic productivity of NHLBI's obesity-related research funding via bibliometric analysis of 30 years of NHLBI-supported obesity-related publications. Methods In total, 3,545 NHLBI-funded obesity-related publications were identified in the Thomson Reuters InCites™ database. Shared references in a community detection algorithm were used to identify publication topics. Characteristics of publications and topical communities were analyzed based on citation count and percentile rank. A percentile rank >90 was considered “highly cited.” Results Obesity-related publications increased more than 10-fold over 30 years, whereas NHLBI-funded publications only increased twofold NHLBI-funded obesity publications were cited a median of 23 times (IQR 8-55, range 0-2,047, mean 52). Thirty percent of these publications were highly cited compared to the expected ten percent. Six topical communities were present in 1983 compared to 16 in 2013. The most highly cited topical areas were sleep (n = 199 publications, 38% highly cited), cardiovascular morbidity and mortality (n = 277, 36%), obesity correlates and consequences (n = 588, 35%), and asthma and inflammation (n = 283, 35%). Conclusions NHLBI-funded obesity publications have contributed substantially to the obesity literature, with many highly cited. Publications grew in number and topical diversity over 30 years and grew at a faster rate than total NHLBI publications.

In a recent article, Alberts et al1 warned that the US-based biomedical science enterprise is flawed in its assumption that the enterprise will constantly expand, and it cannot expect a persistently expanding National Institutes of Health (NIH) biomedical research budget in the future. In fact, as noted by multiple observers, the NIH budget has been declining in constant dollars since 2003, and the pay lines for grants are at historic lows.1–4 Such realizations have led to calls for a reexamination of the policies and programs of the NIH and its individual institutes and centers.1,2 Some have questioned the appropriateness of the allocation of research budgets between discovery science and translational science.1,2,5 Others have argued for better methods to make funding decisions, suggesting that peer review is too conservative and limits innovation,1,2,4,6,7 or simply does not demonstrate the ability to prioritize research proposals on their potential to yield high impact.8,9 Evidence that scientists spend too much time writing and rewriting grant applications, stay too long in training programs, and achieve their first tenure track position or first NIH grant in their late thirties and early forties, respectively, suggest there is a mismatch in the supply and demand for scientists that must be addressed.1,5,7 Editorial see p 1949 Efforts at the NIH to conduct evaluation and self-examination have already begun. Institutes and centers within the NIH have taken multiple approaches. The National Cancer Institute conducted a workshop to make recommendations on how the National Cancer Institute can transform itself for the 21st century to address criticisms of excess expense, repudiated findings, small incremental gains in knowledge, inability to innovate at reasonable cost, and …

Harmon S. Jordan, ScD, Lev Nevo, MD, Janusz Wnek, PhD Jeffrey L. Anderson, MD, FACC, FAHA, Chair , Jonathan L. Halperin, MD, FACC, FAHA, Chair-Elect , Nancy M. Albert, PhD, CCNS, CCRN, FAHA, Biykem Bozkurt, MD, PhD, FACC, FAHA, Ralph G. Brindis, MD, MPH, MACC, Lesley H. Curtis, PhD, FAHA, David

OBJECTIVE We examined the association between high blood pressure and incident type 2 diabetes in African Americans and whites aged 35–54 years at baseline. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We combined data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, and the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort. Overall, 10,893 participants (57% women; 23% African American) were categorized by baseline blood pressure (normal, prehypertension, hypertension) and examined for incident diabetes (median follow-up 8.9 years). RESULTS Overall, 14.6% of African Americans and 7.9% of whites developed diabetes. Age-adjusted incidence was increasingly higher across increasing blood pressure groups (P values for trend: CONCLUSIONS In African Americans, higher diabetes incidence among hypertensive individuals may be explained by BMI, fasting glucose, triglyceride, and HDL cholesterol. In whites, prehypertension and hypertension are associated with greater risk of diabetes, beyond that explained by other risk factors. African Americans, regardless of blood pressure, have greater risks of developing diabetes than whites.

The burden of cardiovascular risk associated with obesity disproportionately affects African Americans and little is known about ethnic/racial differences in the relationship of obesity to cardiometabolic risk. This report assesses whether obesity is similarly associated with cardiometabolic risk factors in African Americans and whites of European ancestry. Cross-sectional observational data from the Jackson Heart Study (JHS) and the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) were compared. This analysis uses participants aged 35–74 years with BMI >18.5 kg/m2, and free of prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD), from the initial JHS clinical examination (2000–2004) and the FHS Offspring (1998–2001) and Third Generation (2002–2005) cohorts. Participants were evaluated for the presence of lipid abnormalities, hypertension, and diabetes. Overall, 4,030 JHS (mean age 54 years, 64% women) and 5,245 FHS (mean age 51 years, 54% women) participants were available for analysis. The prevalence of all risk factors except high triglycerides and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) was substantially higher in JHS (all P < 0.001) and BMI was associated with increasing prevalence of most CVD risk factors within each race. For diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and low HDL, steeper relationships to BMI were observed in FHS than in JHS (P values

Coronary artery disease is the leading cause of death in Type 2 diabetes patients (T2D) with lipid abnormalities. Fibrates have emerged as second-line agents to reduce circulating triglycerides and elevate HDL-C. The ACCORD Lipid study, a subset of the ACCORD trial([NCT00000620][1]), investigated

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) leads to end-stage renal disease and is a growing epidemic throughout the world. In the United States, African Americans have an incidence of end-stage renal disease 4 times that of whites. Study Design Cross-sectional to examine the prevalence and awareness of CKD in African Americans. Setting & Participants Observational cohort in the Jackson Heart Study (JHS). Predictor CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the presence of albuminuria, or dialysis therapy. Outcomes & Measurements Data from the JHS were analyzed. Medical history, including disease awareness and drug therapy, anthropometric measurements, and serum and urine samples, were obtained from JHS participants at the baseline visit. Associations between CKD prevalence and awareness and selected demographic, socioeconomic, health care access, and disease status parameters were assessed by using logistic regression models. Results The prevalence of CKD in the JHS was 20%; CKD awareness was only 15.8%. Older participants had a greater prevalence, but also were more aware of CKD. Hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, increasing age and waist circumference, and being single or less physically active were associated with CKD. Only advancing CKD stage was associated with awareness. Limitations Cross-sectional assessment, single urine measurement. Conclusions The JHS has a high prevalence and low awareness of CKD, especially in those with less severe disease status. This emphasizes the need for earlier diagnosis and increased education of health care providers and the general population.

OBJECTIVE To determine whether duration and degree of weight gain are differentially associated with diabetes risk in younger versus middle-aged black and white adults. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We combined data from three cohort studies: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA), and the Framingham Heart Study. A total of 17,404 participants (56% women; 21% black) were stratified by baseline age (younger: ≥30 and RESULTS Diabetes incidence per 1,000 person-years in the younger and middle-aged groups was 7.2 (95% CI 5.7, 8.7) and 24.4 (22.0, 26.8) in blacks, respectively, and 3.4 (2.8, 4.0) and 10.5 (9.9, 11.2) in whites, respectively. After adjusting for sex, baseline BMI and other cardiometabolic factors, and age and race interaction terms, gains in BMI-years were associated with higher risk of diabetes in the younger compared with middle-aged groups: hazard ratios for 1-unit increase in log BMI-years in younger versus middle-aged blacks were 1.18 (P = 0.02) and 1.02 (P = 0.39), respectively (P for interaction by age-group = 0.047), and in whites were 1.35 (P < 0.001) and 1.11 (P < 0.001), respectively (P for interaction by age-group = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS Although middle-aged adults have higher rates of diabetes, younger adults are at greater relative risk of developing diabetes for a given level of duration and degree of weight gain.

PURPOSE: A significant portion of coronary heart disease deaths occur out of the hospital, prior to access to life saving medical care. Improving the immediacy of care could have important impact on coronary mortality. METHODS: The objective of this research is to identify factors associated with the occurrence of out-of-hospital coronary heart disease death as compared with in-hospital. Identification of these factors could lead to additional strategies for rapid treatment of coronary attack symptoms. A large national cohort study with individually identified characteristics was matched to the National Death Index to identify deaths by cause occurring in up to 11 years of follow-up. Approximately 60,000 deaths occurred in the cohort of approximately 700,000 participants aged 25 years or more. Location of death was defined as either in- or out-of-hospital. RESULTS: Among deaths classified as coronary heart disease (CHD), multivariate logistic models of the association between selected demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of individuals prior to death and place of death show that black persons are more likely to die out of hospital, as are persons who live alone or are unmarried, persons at the lowest end of the income distribution, and persons who live in rural areas vs. urban areas. CONCLUSIONS: The factors most strongly associated with a CHD death occurring out-of-hospital as compared with in-hospital are race (black persons are 1.23 times more likely to die out of hospital than white persons, net of demographic and socioeconomic differentials) and living status (persons who are not married are 1.60 times more likely to die out of hospital than persons who are married, net of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics). Attention should be paid to these groups to emphasize the need for rapid attention to the signs of a coronary attack so that rapid and potentially life saving intervention can be implemented.

Objective: To explore the contribution of genetics to the mean, SD, maximum value, maximum less the mean, and change over time in body mass index (BMI) and the residual of body weight after adjustment for height. BMI is frequently used as a general indicator of obesity because of its ease and reliability in ascertainment. Cross-sectional twin and family studies have shown a moderate-to-substantial genetic component for BMI. However, the contribution of genetics to the long-term average, variability, or change over time in BMI is less clear. Research Methods and Procedures: Longitudinal data from the Framingham heart study were used to create pedigrees of age-matched individuals. Heritability estimates were derived using variance-decomposition methods on a total of 1051 individuals from 380 extended pedigrees followed for a period of 20 years. All subjects were followed from approximately age 35 to 55 years. Results: Moderate heritability estimates were found for the mean BMI (h2 = 0.37), maximum BMI (h2 = 0.40), and the mean residual of body weight (h2 = 0.36). Low heritability estimates (h2 ≅ 0.20) were found for the maximum less the mean in BMI and the SDs of BMI and residual of body weight. No additive genetic contribution was found for the average change over time in BMI or the residual of body weight. Discussion: These findings suggest that there is a significant genetic component for the magnitude of BMI throughout an individual's middle-adult years; however, little evidence was found for a genetic contribution to the variability or rate of change in an individual's BMI.

Background: Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) often exhibit myocardial insulin resistance, potentially contributing to morbidity and mortality. In a prior secondary analysis of publicly available ACCORD data, we noted increased hospitalization or death due to heart

Background The Medicare program provides universal access to hospital care for the elderly; however, mortality disparities may still persist in this population. The association of individual education and area income with survival and recurrence post Myocardial Infarction (MI) was assessed in a national sample. Methods Individual level education from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study was linked to Medicare and National Death Index records over the period of 1991-2001 to test the association of individual education and zip code tabulation area median income with survival and recurrence post-MI. Survival was partitioned into 3 periods: in-hospital, discharge to 1 year, and 1 year to 5 years and recurrence was partitioned into two periods: 28 day to 1 year, and 1 year to 5 years. Results First MIs were found in 8,043 women and 7,929 men. In women and men 66-79 years of age, less than a high school education compared with a college degree or more was associated with 1-5 year mortality in both women (HRR 1.61, 95% confidence interval 1.03-2.50) and men (HRR 1.37, 1.06-1.76). Education was also associated with 1-5 year recurrence in men (HRR 1.68, 1.18-2.41, < High School compared with college degree or more), but not women. Across the spectrum of survival and recurrence periods median zip code level income was inconsistently associated with outcomes. Associations were limited to discharge-1 year survival (RR lowest versus highest quintile 1.31, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.67) and 28 day-1 year recurrence (RR lowest versus highest quintile 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.14-2.57) in older men. Conclusions Despite the Medicare entitlement program, disparities related to individual socioeconomic status remain. Additional research is needed to elucidate the barriers and mechanisms to eliminating health disparities among the elderly.

Preamble and Transition to ACC/AHA Guidelines to Reduce Cardiovascular Risk S50 The goals of the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and the American Heart Association (AHA) are to prevent cardiovascular diseases (CVD); improve the management of people who have these diseases through professional education and research; and develop guidelines, standards, and policies that promote optimal patient care and cardiovascular health. Toward these objectives, the ACC and AHA have collaborated with the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) and stakeholder and professional organizations to develop …

Abstract —Despite the reported association of lipoprotein responses to a fatty meal with atherosclerosis, little is known about the determinants of these responses. Plasma triglyceride, retinyl palmitate, and apolipoprotein B-48 responses to a standardized fatty meal containing a vitamin A marker were measured in 602 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants. To focus on postprandial responses specifically, which have been reported to be related to atherosclerosis independently of fasting triglycerides, analyses for determinants of postprandial responses were adjusted for fasting triglycerides. Major determinants of fasting triglycerides, namely, diabetes, obesity, other factors related to insulin resistance, and male sex, were not independently associated with postprandial responses. Fasting triglycerides were the strongest predictor of postprandial lipids, but independent of triglycerides, the predictors of postprandial responses were smoking, diet, creatinine, and alcohol. Smokers had substantially increased retinyl palmitate and apolipoprotein B-48 responses, indicators of chylomicrons and their remnants. Persons who consume more calories or ω3 fatty acids had reduced chylomicron responses. Triglyceride responses were associated positively with serum creatinine levels and negatively with moderate alcohol consumption. Thus, determinants of fasting and postprandial lipids differ. The independent atherogenic influence of postprandial lipids may relate more to smoking and diet than to obesity and insulin resistance.

The validity of the death certificate in identifying coronary heart disease deaths was evaluated using data from the community surveillance component of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC). Deaths in the four ARIC communities of Forsyth Co., NC; Jackson, MS; Minneapolis, MN; and Washington Co., MD were selected based on underlying cause of death codes as determined by the rules of the ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9). Information about the deaths was gathered through informant interviews, physician or coroner questionnaires, and medical record abstraction, and was used to validate the cause of death. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of the death certificate classification of CHD death (ICD-9 codes 410-414 and 429.2) were estimated by comparison with the validated cause of death based on physician review of all available information. Results from 9 years of surveillance included a positive predictive value 0.67 (95% CI 0.66-0.68), sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.83), and a false-positive rate (1-specificity) of 0.28 (95% CI 0.26-0.30). Comparing CHD deaths as defined by the death certificate with validated CHD deaths indicated that the death certificate overestimated CHD mortality by approximately 20% in the ARIC communities. Within subgroups, death certificate overestimation was reduced with advancing age (up to age 74), was consistent over time, was not dependent on gender, and exhibited considerable variation among communities.

SummaryCardiovascular disease (CVD) is among the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. Since its beginning, the Framingham study has been a leader in identifying CVD risk factors. Clinical trials have demonstrated that when the modifiable risk factors are treated and corrected, the chances of CVD occurring can be reduced. The Framingham study also recognized that CVD risk factors are multifactorial and interact over time to produce CVD. In response, Framingham investigators developed the Framingham Risk Functions (also called Framingham Risk Scores) to evaluate the chance or likelihood of developing CVD in individuals. These functions are multivariate functions (algorithms) that combine the information in CVD risk factors such as sex, age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking behavior, and diabetes status to produce an estimate (or risk) of developing CVD or a component of CVD (such as coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, or heart failure) over a fixed time, for example, the next 10 years. These estimates of CVD risk are often major inputs in recommending drug treatments such as cholesterol-lowering drugs.

Patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) present with a wide range of clinical complications. Understanding this clinical heterogeneity offers the prospects to tailor the right treatments to the right patients and also guide the development of novel therapies. Several environmental (eg, nutrition) and nonenvironmental (eg, fetal hemoglobin levels, α-thalassemia status) factors are known to modify SCD severity. To find new genetic modifiers of SCD severity, we performed a gene-centric association study in 1514 African American participants from the Cooperative Study of Sickle Cell Disease (CSSCD) for acute chest syndrome (ACS) and painful crisis. From the initial results, we selected 36 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) and genotyped them for replication in 387 independent patients from the CSSCD, 318 SCD patients recruited at Georgia Health Sciences University, and 449 patients from the Duke SCD cohort. In the combined analysis, an association between ACS and rs6141803 reached array-wide significance (P = 4.1 × 10(-7)). This SNP is located 8.2 kilobases upstream of COMMD7, a gene highly expressed in the lung that interacts with nuclear factor-κB signaling. Our results provide new leads to gaining a better understanding of clinical variability in SCD, a "simple" monogenic disease.

Objective To examine the relative association of abdominal visceral adipose tissue (VAT) with cardiometabolic risk factors between African and European Americans. Methods A cross-sectional study of 2,035 African Americans from the Jackson Heart Study (JHS) and 3,170 European Americans from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) who underwent computed tomography assessment of VAT and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) was conducted. The FHS participants were weighted to match the age distribution of the JHS participants, and the metabolic risk factors were examined by study groups in relation to VAT. Results JHS participants had higher rates of obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome than FHS participants (all P = 0.001). The associations were weaker in JHS women for VAT with blood pressure, triglycerides, HDL-C, and total cholesterol (Pinteraction = 0.03-0.001) than FHS women. In contrast, JHS men had stronger associations for VAT with high triglycerides, low HDL, and metabolic syndrome (all Pinteraction = 0.001) compared to FHS men. Similar associations and gender patterns existed for SAT with most metabolic risk factors. Conclusions The relative association between VAT and cardiometabolic risk factors is weaker in JHS women compared to FHS women, whereas stronger associations with triglycerides and HDL were observed in JHS men.

Background— Despite population declines in all-cause mortality, women with diabetes mellitus may have experienced an increase in mortality rates compared with men. Methods and Results— We examined change in all-cause, cardiovascular, and non-cardiovascular disease mortality rates among Framingham Heart Study participants who attended examinations during an “earlier” (1950 to 1975; n=930 deaths) and a “later” (1976 to 2001; n=773 deaths) time period. Diabetes mellitus was defined as casual glucose ≥200 mg/dL, fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL, or treatment. Among women, the hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality in the later versus the earlier time period were 0.59 (95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.70; P P =0.002) for those with diabetes mellitus. Similar results were observed in men. Among women and men, the HR of cardiovascular disease mortality declined among those with and without diabetes mellitus. Non-cardiovascular disease mortality declined among women without diabetes mellitus (HR, 0.76; P =0.01), whereas no change was observed among women with diabetes mellitus or among men with or without diabetes mellitus. Individuals with versus those without diabetes mellitus were at increased risk of all-cause mortality in the earlier (HR, 2.44; P P Conclusions— Reductions in all-cause mortality among women and men with diabetes mellitus have occurred over time. However, mortality rates among individuals with diabetes mellitus remain ≈2-fold higher compared with individuals without diabetes mellitus.

Background— Death rates for coronary heart disease have been declining in the United States, but the reasons for this decline are not clear. One factor that could contribute to this decline is a reduction in the severity of acute myocardial infarction (MI). We hypothesized that for those patients hospitalized in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study with acute incident MI, there was a decline in MI severity from 1987 to 2002. Methods and Results— The community surveillance component of the ARIC Study consisted of tracking residents 35 to 74 years of age with hospitalized MI or fatal coronary heart disease in 4 diverse communities. For incident, hospitalized MI, a probability sample of hospital discharges was validated and an MI classification was assigned according to an algorithm consisting of chest pain, ECG evidence, and cardiac biomarkers. Severity indicators were chosen from abstracted hospital charts validated as a definite or probable MI. With few exceptions, the MI severity indicators suggested a significant decline in the severity of MI during the period of 1987 to 2002. The percent of MI cases with major ECG abnormalities decreased as evidenced by a 1.9%/y ( P =0.002) decline in the proportion of those with initial ST-segment elevation, a 3.9%/y ( P P P P P =0.66). The percent with shock declined (5.7%/y; P P Conclusions— Evidence from ARIC community surveillance suggests that the severity of acute MI has declined among community residents hospitalized for incident MI. This reduction in severity may have contributed, along with other factors, to the decline in death rates for coronary heart disease.

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) generally is defined as unexpected natural death due to a cardiac cause within an hour after the onset of acute symptoms.(1) The majority of SCD is a result of ventricular arrhythmia subsequent to coronary heart disease (CHD), often as the first manifestation of CHD.(2–4) Currently recommended strategies to reduce SCD are three-fold: 1) primary prevention of CHD, especially among those at high risk of CHD, 2) prevention of arrhythmias and sudden death among patients with coronary artery disease, and 3) improvement of survival after cardiac arrest through a chain of intervention strategies.(5;6) The relative contribution of primary prevention versus treatment to the decline in CHD mortality in the U.S. has not been fully elucidated.(7–9) Recent studies attempted to measure the trend in SCD among persons without CHD history, as an indicator of primary prevention, and demonstrated that these “first event” SCD death rates have fallen over time.(2;3) These studies, however, differed in case definition, geographic area, and study population, and were limited by their generalizability due to study settings in confined geographic areas or in a single race cohort. Since 1987, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study has been monitoring the CHD incidence and mortality in four U.S. communities. All deaths have been ascertained uniformly using multiple sources such as death certificates, informant and coroner interviews, and physician adjudications. The ARIC study thus provides a unique opportunity to assess the magnitude of and trends in rates of sudden CHD death with and without CHD history, as compared with non-sudden CHD deaths, and to measure the changes by demographic subgroups and communities.

This study evaluated patients in the Post Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (Post CABG) trial for evidence of statin pleiotropic effects in preventing atherosclerotic progression in saphenous vein grafts (SVGs). We studied 1,116 of the 1,351 patients in the Post CABG trial who were randomized to aggressive (low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol target85 mg/dl) or moderate (target LDL cholesterol140 mg/dl) lovastatin treatment and who had sufficient data available. The generalized estimating equation models, adjusting for important covariates, were applied to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) and probability of substantial atherosclerotic SVG progression (decrease in lumen diameteror=0.6 mm) and the difference in minimum lumen diameter change between treatment groups. Aggressive lovastatin treatment compared with moderate treatment was associated with a significant decrease in risk of significant SVG atherosclerotic progression after adjustment for baseline cholesterol level, LDL cholesterol on treatment, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglyceride changes on treatment and other independent predictors (OR 0.68, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.94, p = 0.019). Results were similar when the change or percent change from baseline of LDL cholesterol level on treatment was adjusted for rather than on-treatment LDL cholesterol and in the subset achieving a year-1 LDL cholesterol level from 90 to 135 mg/dl (OR 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.98, p = 0.042). Mean decrease in minimum lumen diameter was also significantly smaller in the aggressive than the moderate treatment arm (-0.256 vs -0.343 mm, p = 0.042). In conclusion, aggressive versus moderate lovastatin treatment appeared therapeutic in slowing the atherosclerotic process in SVGs from Post CABG patients, independent of its greater LDL cholesterol-lowering effect.

Background— Marked reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality have occurred in the United States over the last 50 years. We tested the hypothesis that the relative burden of CVD attributable to diabetes mellitus (DM) has increased over the past 5 decades. Methods and Results— Participants aged 45 to 64 years from the Framingham Heart Study, who attended examinations in an “early” time period (1952 to 1974), were compared with those who attended examinations in a later time period (1975 to 1998). The risk of CVD events (n=133 among those with and 1093 among those without DM) attributable to DM in the 2 time periods was assessed with Cox proportional hazards models; population attributable risk of DM as a CVD risk factor was calculated for each time period. The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio for DM as a CVD risk factor was 3.0 (95% CI, 2.3 to 3.9) in the earlier time period and 2.5 (95% CI, 1.9 to 3.2) in the later time period. The population attributable risk for DM as a CVD risk factor increased from 5.4% (95% CI, 3.8% to 6.9%) in the earlier time period to 8.7% (95% CI, 5.9% to 11.4%) in the later time period ( P for attributable risk ratio=0.04), although multivariable adjustment resulted in attenuation of these findings ( P =0.12); most of these observations were found among men. Conclusions— The proportion of CVD attributable to DM has increased over the past 50 years in Framingham. These findings emphasize the need for increased efforts to prevent DM and to aggressively treat and control CVD risk factors among those with DM.

To determine whether statin therapy improves survival in patients with heart failure (HF) secondary to nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (non-IDC), data from 1,024 patients with non-IDC (New York Heart Association functional class III and IV HF) and left ventricular ejection fraction < or =0.35 who were enrolled in the BEST were analyzed. The association of statin therapy at the initial screening visit with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was evaluated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. After adjusting for age, gender, race, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, New York Heart Association functional class IV, estimated glomerular filtration rate, current cigarette smoking, left ventricular ejection fraction, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor use, antiplatelet therapy, diabetes mellitus, treatment group (beta blocker or placebo), and hypertension, statin use was independently associated with decreased all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.38, confidence interval 0.18 to 0.82, p = 0.0134) and also with decreased cardiovascular death (hazard ratio 0.42, confidence interval 0.18 to 0.95, p = 0.037). In conclusion, in patients with moderate or severe HF due to non-IDC entered into BEST, statin therapy at entry was independently associated with a decrease in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

The NHLBI has recently developed standards for protection of subject confidentiality which enable distribution of large data sets collected in completed epidemiological studies and clinical trials. This allows other investigators to pursue research using the data these studies have generated. An ethical commitment to protect the privacy of the research subjects requires careful review and some compromise in data details prior to distribution. To meet the challenge posed by the ethical and legal requirements to protect participants' privacy and making data sets useful for researchers, the NHLBI has devised a policy which seeks to balance these two opposing forces. This paper describes this policy as well as the limited access data sets currently available from NHLBI.

We assessed interactions between polymorphisms in the beta-adrenergic receptor genes and longitudinal changes in obesity from childhood to adulthood using longitudinal data collected over a 24-year period from 1973 to 1996. Sex- and age-stratified analyses using random coefficients models were used to examine gene-gene interaction effects on obesity measures in 1179 African-American and white men and women (71% white, 57% women). Suggestive evidence for an interaction (p = 0.022) between the beta1- and beta2-adrenergic receptors was observed in men for longitudinal change in BMI. Men with Gly/Gly genotypes for both the beta1 and beta2 receptors showed significant increases (approximately 0.6%/yr) in BMI from childhood to adulthood. Women showed suggestive evidence for an interaction (p = 0.035) between the beta1- and beta3-adrenergic receptors for change over time in BMI. Women with Gly/Gly genotypes at the beta1-receptor and carrying at least one beta3-Arg allele showed notable increases in BMI. The regulation of lipolysis and development of obesity differ markedly between men and women and may be influenced by genetic polymorphisms, which contribute to the efficiency of the beta-adrenergic receptors, and hormonal effects on adrenergic receptor activity.

Atherosclerosis, nearly universally present in major arteries of Western adults, is characterized in all affected arteries by cholesterol-laden plaques and consistently associated with blood cholesterol levels. Other risk factors are reported to have relatively stronger or weaker associations with different atherosclerotic manifestations, but such differences have never previously been quantified. Measuring them may offer fresh clues to atherogenic processes and their prevention. The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC) ascertained incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and measured subclinical atherosclerosis as carotid artery intimal medial thickness using ultrasound and as lower extremity arterial disease (LEAD) using ankle-brachial blood pressure index. Blood cholesterol was associated with all endpoints. When standardized against LDL cholesterol associations, diabetes and smoking showed substantially different strengths of associations with different endpoints. Relative to associations with LDL cholesterol: (1) smoking, but not diabetes, increased in its strength of association with the severity of the underlying arterial disease; (2) the diabetes and smoking associations with CHD were much stronger in women than men, a phenomenon which, the standardization pattern suggests, is due to a gender difference in CHD pathogenesis, possibly attributable to arteriolar differences.

Background — Despite consensus on the need for blood cholesterol reductions to prevent coronary heart disease (CHD), available evidence on optimal cholesterol levels or the added predictive value of additional lipids is sparse. Methods and Results — After 10 years follow-up of 12 339 middle-aged participants free of CHD in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC), 725 CHD events occurred. The lowest incidence was observed in those at the lowest LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) quintile, with medians of 88 mg/dL in women and 95 mg/dL in men, and risk accelerated at higher levels, with relative risks (RRs) for the highest quintile of 2.7 in women and 2.5 in men. LDL-C, HDL-C, lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)], and in women but not men, triglycerides (TG) were all independent CHD predictors, providing an RR, together with blood pressure, smoking, and diabetes, of 13.5 in women and 4.9 in men. Lp(a) was less significant in blacks than whites. Prediction was not enhanced by HDL-C density subfractions or apolipoproteins (apo) A-I or B. Despite strong univariate associations, apoB did not contribute to risk prediction in subgroups with elevated TG, with lower LDL-C, or with high apoB relative to LDL-C. Conclusions — Optimal LDL-C values are

Background: The β2-adrenergic receptor (ADRB2) plays a major role in regulating energy expenditure by stimulating lipid metabolism in human adipose tissue. Polymorphisms in the ADRB2 gene have been associated with obesity and various weight-related traits in cross-sectional studies of adults, but little is known about the effects of the ADRB2 gene on childhood obesity or the propensity to gain weight over time. Objective: To assess the effects of a polymorphism in codon 16 (Arg16→Gly) of the ADRB2 gene, which has been associated with a decrease in β2-receptor density and efficiency, on longitudinal changes in obesity from childhood to young adulthood in a biracial cohort. Design: Seven cross-sectional screenings of children and five cross-sectional screenings of young adults who were previously examined as children produced longitudinal data from childhood to young adulthood. Methods: Height, weight and subscapular and triceps skinfolds were measured by trained examiners following identical protocols over the course of the study. Gender- and age-stratified analyses using random coefficients models were used to examine longitudinal genetic effects on obesity in 1151 African-American and Caucasian males and females who attended an average of six examinations over a 24 y period from childhood to young adulthood. Results: Age-stratified analyses showed no clear genetic relationships with changes in obesity measures over time in females, but an age-dependent association was observed in males, where the relationship between the Arg16Gly polymorphism and obesity became stronger with age. In males who were 4–9 y of age at the beginning of the study in 1973, body mass index (BMI) was 4% higher in Gly/Gly and Arg/Gly males compared to those with Arg/Arg by 26 y of age. Subscapular skinfold measurements in Gly/Gly males became significantly different from Arg/Arg males (20% higher) by age 20. In the oldest male cohort (10–14 y of age in 1973), BMI increased at a significantly greater rate (0.4%/y) in males carrying the Gly16 form of the receptor relative to Arg/Arg males. BMI was significantly different between homozygous genotypes by approximately 26 y of age, and reached 8% higher in Gly/Gly males by age 32. Subscapular skinfolds also increased at a significantly greater rate (2%/y) in Gly/Gly males compared to Arg/Arg males, becoming significantly different (27%) by approximately 22 y of age and reaching a maximum difference of 50% by age 32. Conclusions: Our data suggest that the β2-adrenergic receptor is associated with the propensity to gain weight from childhood to young adulthood in males. An increased understanding of genetic influences on the development of obesity may improve the effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce excess body weight and help define the role of genetic factors in diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

Publisher's version (útgefin grein), Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after 'recalibration', a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied. Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at 'high' 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms. Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need., The work of the co-ordinating centre was funded by the UK Medical Research Council (G0800270), British Heart Foundation (SP/09/ 002), British Heart Foundation Cambridge Cardiovascular Centre of Excellence, UK National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, European Research Council (268834), and European Commission Framework Programme 7 (HEALTH-F2-2012-279233). The Emerging Risk Factor Collaboration’s website https://www.phpc.cam.ac.uk/ceu/erfc/list-of-studies/ has compiled a list provided by investigators of some of the funders of the component studies in this analysis. I.W. was supported by the Medical Research Council Unit Programme MC_UU_12023/21. M.K. is supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) Veni grant (Veni, 91616079). J.P. is supported by Erasmus Mundus Western Balkans (ERAWEB), a project funded by the European Commission.