1. The Bayes' factor: the coherent measure for hypothesis confirmation
- Author
-
Taroni, F, Garbolino, P, Bozza, S, and Aitken, C
- Subjects
Bayesian confirmation theory ,Bayes' ,factor ,Likelihood ratio ,Logical properties ,Philosophy of science ,Probabilistic reasoning ,Scientific evidence evaluation ,Law ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,Philosophy ,Bayes’ factor ,Bayesian confirmation theory, Bayes’ factor, Likelihood ratio, Logical properties, Philosophy of science, Probabilistic reasoning, Scientific evidence evaluation ,Settore SECS-S/01 - Statistica - Abstract
What have been called ‘Bayesian confirmation measures’ or ‘evidential support measures’ offer a numerical expression for the impact of a piece of evidence on a judicial hypothesis of interest. The Bayes’ factor, sometimes simply called the ‘likelihood ratio’, represents the best measure of the value of the evidence. It satisfies a number of necessary conditions on normative logical adequacy. It is shown that the same cannot be said for alternative expressions put forward by some legal and forensic quarters. A list of desiderata are given that support the choice of the Bayes’ factor as the best measure for quantification of the value of evidence.
- Published
- 2021