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Background: Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population. Methods: The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992–2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed. Results: The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell’s C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, lifestyle data led to improved model performance overall (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.307 (95% CI 0.264–0.352)), and especially for young individuals below 45 years (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.364 (95% CI 0.084–0.575)). Conclusions: LiFeCRC score based on age and lifestyle data accurately identifies individuals at risk for incident colorectal cancer in European populations and could contribute to improved prevention through motivating lifestyle change at an individual level. © 2020, The Author(s).

Alcohol consumption is causally linked to several cancers but the evidence for stomach cancer is inconclusive. In our study, the association between long-term alcohol intake and risk of stomach cancer and its subtypes was evaluated. We performed a pooled analysis of data collected at baseline from 491 714 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition and the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for incident stomach cancer in relation to lifetime alcohol intake and group-based life course intake trajectories, adjusted for potential confounders including Helicobacter pylori infection. In all, 1225 incident stomach cancers (78% noncardia) were diagnosed over 7 094 637 person-years; 984 in 382 957 study participants with lifetime alcohol intake data (5 455 507 person-years). Although lifetime alcohol intake was not associated with overall stomach cancer risk, we observed a weak positive association with noncardia cancer (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00-1.06 per 10 g/d increment), with a HR of 1.50 (95% CI: 1.08-2.09) for ≥60 g/d compared to 0.1 to 4.9 g/d. A weak inverse association with cardia cancer (HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.87-1.00) was also observed. HRs of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.10-1.99) for noncardia and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.26-1.03) for cardia cancer were observed for a life course trajectory characterized by heavy decreasing intake compared to light stable intake (Phomogeneity =.02). These associations did not differ appreciably by smoking or H pylori infection status. Limiting alcohol use during lifetime, particularly avoiding heavy use during early adulthood, might help prevent noncardia stomach cancer. Heterogeneous associations observed for cardia and noncardia cancers may indicate etiologic differences. © 2021 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.

Background Acylcarnitines (ACs) play a major role in fatty acid metabolism and are potential markers of metabolic dysfunction with higher blood concentrations reported in obese and diabetic individuals. Diet, and in particular red and processed meat intake, has been shown to influence AC concentrations but data on the effect of meat consumption on AC concentrations is limited. Objectives To investigate the effect of red and processed meat intake on AC concentrations in plasma and urine using a randomized controlled trial with replication in an observational cohort. Methods In the randomized crossover trial, 12 volunteers successively consumed 2 different diets containing either pork or tofu for 3 d each. A panel of 44 ACs including several oxidized ACs was analyzed by LC-MS in plasma and urine samples collected after the 3-d period. ACs that were associated with pork intake were then measured in urine (n = 474) and serum samples (n = 451) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study and tested for associations with habitual red and processed meat intake derived from dietary questionnaires. Results In urine samples from the intervention study, pork intake was positively associated with concentrations of 18 short- and medium-chain ACs. Eleven of these were also positively associated with habitual red and processed meat intake in the EPIC cross-sectional study. In blood, C18:0 was positively associated with red meat intake in both the intervention study (q = 0.004, Student's t-test) and the cross-sectional study (q = 0.033, linear regression). Conclusions AC concentrations in urine and blood were associated with red meat intake in both a highly controlled intervention study and in subjects of a cross-sectional study. Our data on the role of meat intake on this important pathway of fatty acid and energy metabolism may help understanding the role of red meat consumption in the etiology of some chronic diseases. This trial was registered at Clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03354130.

Evidence suggests an influence of sex hormones on cutaneous melanoma risk, but epidemiologic findings are conflicting. We examined the associations between use of oral contraceptives (OCs) and menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and melanoma risk in women participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). EPIC is a prospective cohort study initiated in 1992 in 10 European countries. Information on exogenous hormone use at baseline was derived from country-specific self-administered questionnaires. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Over 1992–2015, 1,696 melanoma cases were identified among 334,483 women, whereof 770 cases among 134,758 postmenopausal women. There was a positive, borderline-significant association between OC use and melanoma risk (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.00–1.26), with no detected heterogeneity across countries (phomogeneity = 0.42). This risk increased linearly with duration of use (ptrend = 0.01). Among postmenopausal women, ever use of MHT was associated with a nonsignificant increase in melanoma risk overall (HR = 1.14, 95% CI = 0.97–1.43), which was heterogeneous across countries (phomogeneity = 0.05). Our findings do not support a strong and direct association between exogenous hormone use and melanoma risk. In order to better understand these relations, further research should be performed using prospectively collected data including detailed information on types of hormone, and on sun exposure, which may act as an important confounder or effect modifier on these relations. © 2019 UICC

Background: Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) copy number in peripheral blood has been found to be associated with risk of developing several cancers. However, data on pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) are very limited. Methods: To further our knowledge on this topic, we measured relative mtDNA copy number by a quantitative real-time PCR assay in peripheral leukocyte samples of 476 PDAC cases and 357 controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Results: We observed lower mtDNA copy number with advancing age (P = 6.54 x 10-5) and with a high body mass index (BMI) level (P = 0.004) and no association with sex, smoking behavior, and alcohol consumption. We found an association between increased mtDNA copy number and decreased risk of developing PDAC with an odds ratios (OR) of 0.35 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.16-0.79; P = 0.01] when comparing the fifth quintile with the first using an unconditional logistic regression and an OR of 0.19 (95% CI, 0.07-0.52; P = 0.001) with a conditional analysis. Analyses stratified by BMI showed an association between high mtDNA copy number and decreased risk in the stratum of normal weight, consistent with the main analyses. Conclusions: Our results suggest a protective effect of a higher number of mitochondria, measured in peripheral blood leukocytes, on PDAC risk. Impact: Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the mitochondrial biology in pancreatic cancer. © 2020 American Association for Cancer Research.

Background: Epidemiological studies suggest that haem iron, which is found predominantly in red meat and increases endogenous formation of carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds, may be positively associated with lung cancer. The objective was to examine the relationship between haem iron intake and lung cancer risk using detailed smoking history data and serum cotinine to control for potential confounding. Methods: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), 416,746 individuals from 10 countries completed demographic and dietary questionnaires at recruitment. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident lung cancer (n = 3731) risk relative to haem iron, non-haem iron, and total dietary iron intake. A corresponding analysis was conducted among a nested subset of 800 lung cancer cases and 1489 matched controls for whom serum cotinine was available. Results: Haem iron was associated with lung cancer risk, including after adjustment for details of smoking history (time since quitting, number of cigarettes per day): as a continuous variable (HR per 0.3 mg/1000 kcal 1.03, 95% CI 1.00–1.07), and in the highest versus lowest quintile (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.02–1.32; trend across quintiles: P = 0.035). In contrast, non-haem iron intake was related inversely with lung cancer risk; however, this association attenuated after adjustment for smoking history. Additional adjustment for serum cotinine did not considerably alter the associations detected in the nested case–control subset. Conclusions: Greater haem iron intake may be modestly associated with lung cancer risk. © 2018, Springer Nature Limited.

Background: The use of biomarkers of environmental exposure to explore new risk factors for pancreatic cancer presents clinical, logistic, and methodological challenges that are also relevant in research on other complex diseases. Objectives: First, to summarize the main design features of a prospective case-control study –nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort– on plasma concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and pancreatic cancer risk. And second, to assess the main methodological challenges posed by associations among characteristics and habits of study participants, fasting status, time from blood draw to cancer diagnosis, disease progression bias, basis of cancer diagnosis, and plasma concentrations of lipids and POPs. Results from etiologic analyses on POPs and pancreatic cancer risk, and other analyses, will be reported in future articles. Methods: Study subjects were 1533 participants (513 cases and 1020 controls matched by study centre, sex, age at blood collection, date and time of blood collection, and fasting status) enrolled between 1992 and 2000. Plasma concentrations of 22 POPs were measured by gas chromatography - triple quadrupole mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). To estimate the magnitude of the associations we calculated multivariate-adjusted odds ratios by unconditional logistic regression, and adjusted geometric means by General Linear Regression Models. Results: There were differences among countries in subjects’ characteristics (as age, gender, smoking, lipid and POP concentrations), and in study characteristics (as time from blood collection to index date, year of last follow-up, length of follow-up, basis of cancer diagnosis, and fasting status). Adjusting for centre and time of blood collection, no factors were significantly associated with fasting status. Plasma concentrations of lipids were related to age, body mass index, fasting, country, and smoking. We detected and quantified 16 of the 22 POPs in more than 90% of individuals. All 22 POPs were detected in some participants, and the smallest number of POPs detected in one person was 15 (median, 19) with few differences by country. The highest concentrations were found for p,p’-DDE, PCBs 153 and 180 (median concentration: 3371, 1023, and 810 pg/mL, respectively). We assessed the possible occurrence of disease progression bias (DPB) in eight situations defined by lipid and POP measurements, on one hand, and by four factors: interval from blood draw to index date, tumour subsite, tumour stage, and grade of differentiation, on the other. In seven of the eight situations results supported the absence of DPB. Conclusions: The coexistence of differences across study centres in some design features and participant characteristics is of relevance to other multicentre studies. Relationships among subjects’ characteristics and among such characteristics and design features may play important roles in the forthcoming analyses on the association between plasma concentrations of POPs and pancreatic cancer risk. © 2018 Elsevier Inc.

Background: Metabolomics is a promising molecular tool to identify novel etiologic pathways leading to cancer. Using a targeted approach, we prospectively investigated the associations between metabolite concentrations in plasma and breast cancer risk. Methods: A nested case-control study was established within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer cohort, which included 1624 first primary incident invasive breast cancer cases (with known estrogen and progesterone receptor and HER2 status) and 1624 matched controls. Metabolites (n = 127, acylcarnitines, amino acids, biogenic amines, glycerophospholipids, hexose, sphingolipids) were measured by mass spectrometry in pre-diagnostic plasma samples and tested for associations with breast cancer incidence using multivariable conditional logistic regression. Results: Among women not using hormones at baseline (n = 2248), and after control for multiple tests, concentrations of arginine (odds ratio [OR] per SD = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70-0.90), asparagine (OR = 0.83 (0.74-0.92)), and phosphatidylcholines (PCs) ae C36:3 (OR = 0.83 (0.76-0.90)), aa C36:3 (OR = 0.84 (0.77-0.93)), ae C34:2 (OR = 0.85 (0.78-0.94)), ae C36:2 (OR = 0.85 (0.78-0.88)), and ae C38:2 (OR = 0.84 (0.76-0.93)) were inversely associated with breast cancer risk, while the acylcarnitine C2 (OR = 1.23 (1.11-1.35)) was positively associated with disease risk. In the overall population, C2 (OR = 1.15 (1.06-1.24)) and PC ae C36:3 (OR = 0.88 (0.82-0.95)) were associated with risk of breast cancer, and these relationships did not differ by breast cancer subtype, age at diagnosis, fasting status, menopausal status, or adiposity. Conclusions: These findings point to potentially novel pathways and biomarkers of breast cancer development. Results warrant replication in other epidemiological studies. © 2019 The Author(s).

Purpose: Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has the potential for cure with surgery when diagnosed at an early stage. Kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) has been shown to be elevated in the plasma of RCC patients. We aimed to test whether plasma KIM-1 could represent a means of detecting RCC prior to clinical diagnosis. Experimental Design: KIM-1 concentrations were measured in prediagnostic plasma from 190 RCC cases and 190 controls nested within a population-based prospective cohort study. Cases had entered the cohort up to 5 years before diagnosis, and controls were matched on cases for date of birth, date at blood donation, sex, and country. We applied conditional logistic regression and flexible parametric survival models to evaluate the association between plasma KIM-1 concentrations and RCC risk and survival. Results: The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of RCC for a doubling in KIM-1 concentration was 1.71 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.44–2.03, P ¼ 4.1 1023], corresponding to an IRR of 63.3 (95% CI, 16.2–246.9) comparing the 80th to the 20th percentiles of the KIM-1 distribution in this sample. Compared with a risk model including known risk factors of RCC (age, sex, country, body mass index, and tobacco smoking status), a risk model additionally including KIM-1 substantially improved discrimination between cases and controls (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.8 compared with 0.7). High plasma KIM-1 concentrations were also associated with poorer survival (P ¼ 0.0053). Conclusions: Plasma KIM-1 concentrations could predict RCC incidence up to 5 years prior to diagnosis and were associated with poorer survival. © 2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

Polyphenols may play a chemopreventive role in colorectal cancer (CRC); however, epidemiological evidence supporting a role for intake of individual polyphenol classes, other than flavonoids is insufficient. We evaluated the association between dietary intakes of total and individual classes and subclasses of polyphenols and CRC risk and its main subsites, colon and rectum, within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The cohort included 476,160 men and women from 10 European countries. During a mean follow-up of 14 years, there were 5991 incident CRC cases, of which 3897 were in the colon and 2094 were in the rectum. Polyphenol intake was estimated using validated centre/country specific dietary questionnaires and the Phenol-Explorer database. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, a doubling in total dietary polyphenol intake was not associated with CRC risk in women (HR log2 = 1.06, 95% CI 0.99–1.14) or in men (HR log2 = 0.97, 95% CI 0.90–1.05), respectively. Phenolic acid intake, highly correlated with coffee consumption, was inversely associated with colon cancer in men (HR log2 = 0.91, 95% CI 0.85–0.97) and positively associated with rectal cancer in women (HR log2 = 1.10, 95% CI 1.02–1.19); although associations did not exceed the Bonferroni threshold for significance. Intake of other polyphenol classes was not related to colorectal, colon or rectal cancer risks. Our study suggests a possible inverse association between phenolic acid intake and colon cancer risk in men and positive with rectal cancer risk in women. © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature.

Importance: There is an urgent need to improve lung cancer risk assessment because current screening criteria miss a large proportion of cases. Objective: To investigate whether a lung cancer risk prediction model based on a panel of selected circulating protein biomarkers can outperform a traditional risk prediction model and current US screening criteria. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prediagnostic samples from 108 ever-smoking patients with lung cancer diagnosed within 1 year after blood collection and samples from 216 smoking-matched controls from the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET) cohort were used to develop a biomarker risk score based on 4 proteins (cancer antigen 125 [CA125], carcinoembryonic antigen [CEA], cytokeratin-19 fragment [CYFRA 21-1], and the precursor form of surfactant protein B [Pro-SFTPB]). The biomarker score was subsequently validated blindly using absolute risk estimates among 63 ever-smoking patients with lung cancer diagnosed within 1 year after blood collection and 90 matched controls from 2 large European population-based cohorts, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study (NSHDS). Main Outcomes and Measures: Model validity in discriminating between future lung cancer cases and controls. Discrimination estimates were weighted to reflect the background populations of EPIC and NSHDS validation studies (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve [AUC], sensitivity, and specificity). Results: In the validation study of 63 ever-smoking patients with lung cancer and 90 matched controls (mean [SD] age, 57.7 [8.7] years; 68.6% men) from EPIC and NSHDS, an integrated risk prediction model that combined smoking exposure with the biomarker score yielded an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.76-0.90) compared with 0.73 (95% CI, 0.64-0.82) for a model based on smoking exposure alone (P =.003 for difference in AUC). At an overall specificity of 0.83, based on the US Preventive Services Task Force screening criteria, the sensitivity of the integrated risk prediction (biomarker) model was 0.63 compared with 0.43 for the smoking model. Conversely, at an overall sensitivity of 0.42, based on the US Preventive Services Task Force screening criteria, the integrated risk prediction model yielded a specificity of 0.95 compared with 0.86 for the smoking model. Conclusions and Relevance: This study provided a proof of principle in showing that a panel of circulating protein biomarkers may improve lung cancer risk assessment and may be used to define eligibility for computed tomography screening.. © 2018 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

The contaminant situation in the Norwegian-Russian border has caused concern for several decades and considerable amount of data has been gathered during the Pasvik programme (Stebel et al., 2007; Pasvik programme, 2008) for the environmental pollution, but not in this extent for food safety and potential human health risks in this region. Through the compiling of the available literature the authors of this report have identified a number of issues that need further attention.