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Aim: To assess the cost‐effectiveness of diabetic nephropathy treatment with sodium‐glucose cotransporter‐2 (SGLT2) inhibitors in Japanese clinical practice, considering diabetes‐related complications. Materials and Methods: A population‐based Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the cost‐effectiveness for people with diabetic nephropathy who initiated pharmacotherapy with an SGLT2 inhibitor plus conventional treatment or conventional treatment alone, based on quality‐adjusted life‐years (QALYs) and healthcare costs. The Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation study (CREDENCE) and the Japanese Society for Dialysis Research statistical survey were the primary sources of probability and mortality, while Japanese Health Insurance Claims Data were the cost source. The state transition model included diabetic nephropathy, hospitalization due to cardiovascular disease, dialysis, and death. One‐way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to explore model uncertainty. Results: Using the threshold of JPY 5 000 000 per QALY, SGLT2 inhibitor plus conventional treatment was more cost‐effective than conventional treatment alone, with an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of JPY 654 309 per QALY. Treating 100 000 people, SGLT2 inhibitor plus conventional treatment prevented 2234 deaths and reduced 5793 fewer heart failure cases, 3967 fewer myocardial infarctions and stroke events. Sensitivity analysis affirmed the robustness of these results for patients aged under 70 years. Conclusions: The SGLT2 inhibitor treatment appeared to be cost‐effective for the overall population of our study and particularly for younger patients (<70 years old). For older patients (≥70 years old), the cost‐effectiveness was less clear and may require further evaluation. Decision‐makers should consider this age‐based heterogeneity when making recommendations about SGLT2 inhibitor treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundJapan has entered the era of super-ageing and advanced health transition, which is increasingly putting pressure on the sustainability of its health system. The level and pace of this health transition might vary across regions within Japan and concern is growing about increasing regional variations in disease burden. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive, comparable framework. We used data from GBD 2015 with the aim to quantify the burden of disease and injuries, and to attribute risk factors in Japan at a subnational, prefecture-level.MethodsWe used data from GBD 2015 for 315 causes and 79 risk factors of death, disease, and injury incidence and prevalence to measure the burden of diseases and injuries in Japan and in the 47 Japanese prefectures from 1990 to 2015. We extracted data from GBD 2015 to assess mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy (HALE) in Japan and its 47 prefectures. We split extracted data by prefecture and applied GBD methods to generate estimates of burden, and attributable burden due to known risk factors. We examined the prefecture-level relationships of common health system inputs (eg, health expenditure and workforces) to the GBD outputs in 2015 to address underlying determinants of regional health variations.FindingsLife expectancy at birth in Japan increased by 4·2 years from 79·0 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 79·0 to 79·0) to 83·2 years (83·1 to 83·2) between 1990 and 2015. However, the gaps between prefectures with the lowest and highest life expectancies and HALE have widened, from 2·5 to 3·1 years and from 2·3 to 2·7 years, respectively, from 1990 to 2015. Although overall age-standardised death rates decreased by 29·0% (28·7 to 29·3) from 1990 to 2015, the rates of mortality decline in this period substantially varied across the prefectures, ranging from -32·4% (-34·8 to -30·0) to -22·0% (-20·4 to -20·1). During the same time period, the rate of age-standardised DALYs was reduced overall by 19·8% (17·9 to 22·0). The reduction in rates of age-standardised YLDs was very small by 3·5% (2·6 to 4·3). The pace of reduction in mortality and DALYs in many leading causes has largely levelled off since 2005. Known risk factors accounted for 34·5% (32·4 to 36·9) of DALYs; the two leading behavioural risk factors were unhealthy diets and tobacco smoking in 2015. The common health system inputs were not associated with age-standardised death and DALY rates in 2015.InterpretationJapan has been successful overall in reducing mortality and disability from most major diseases. However, progress has slowed down and health variations between prefectures is growing. In view of the limited association between the prefecture-level health system inputs and health outcomes, the potential sources of regional variations, including subnational health system performance, urgently need assessment.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Japan Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture, Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, AXA CR Fixed Income Fund and AXA Research Fund.

There has been growing evidence suggesting that diabetes may be associated with increased liver cancer risk. However, studies conducted in Asian countries are limited. This project considered data of 968,738 adults pooled from 20 cohort studies of Asia Cohort Consortium to examine the association between baseline diabetes and liver cancer incidence and mortality. Cox proportional hazard model and competing risk approach was used for pooled data. Two‐stage meta‐analysis across studies was also done. There were 839,194 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer incidence (5654 liver cancer cases [48.29/100,000 person‐years]), follow‐up time and baseline diabetes (44,781 with diabetes [5.3%]). There were 747,198 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer mortality (5020 liver cancer deaths [44.03/100,000 person‐years]), follow‐up time and baseline diabetes (43,243 with diabetes [5.8%]). Hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [95%CI]) of liver cancer diagnosis in those with vs. without baseline diabetes was 1.97 (1.79, 2.16) (p <.0001) after adjusting for baseline age, gender, body mass index, tobacco smoking, alcohol use, and heterogeneity across studies (n = 586,072; events = 4620). Baseline diabetes was associated with increased cumulative incidence of death due to liver cancer (adjusted HR (95%CI) = 1.97 (1.79, 2.18); p <.0001) (n = 595,193; events = 4110). A two‐stage meta‐analytic approach showed similar results. This paper adds important population‐based evidence to current literature regarding the increased incidence and mortality of liver cancer in adults with diabetes. The analysis of data pooled from 20 studies of different Asian countries and the meta‐analysis across studies with large number of subjects makes the results robust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The female predominance of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has led to a hypothesis regarding the hormone‐related aetiology of GBC. We aimed to investigate the association between female reproductive factors and GBC risk, considering birth cohorts of Asian women. We conducted a pooled analysis of 331,323 women from 12 cohorts across 4 countries (China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore) in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between reproductive factors (age at menarche, parity, age at first delivery, breastfeeding, and age at menopause) and GBC risk. We observed that a later age at menarche was associated with an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.16–1.70 for 17 years and older vs. 13–14 years), especially among the cohort born in 1940 and later (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.50–4.35). Among the cohort born before 1940, women with a later age at first delivery showed an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.08–2.24 for 31 years of age and older vs. 20 years of age and younger). Other reproductive factors did not show a clear association with GBC risk. Later ages at menarche and at first delivery were associated with a higher risk of GBC, and these associations varied by birth cohort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/Aims: The efficacy and safety of tofacitinib for the treatment of refractory ulcerative colitis (UC) has been demonstrated in clinical trials. Although, a series of reports with real-world evidence of its short-term efficacy and safety profiles have already been published, reports of long-term real-world data have been limited. We aimed to show our 3-year evidence on the clinical use of tofacitinib for the treatment of UC, focusing on its efficacy and safety profiles. Methods: A retrospective observational study was conducted on patients who started tofacitinib for active refractory UC at our hospital. The primary outcome was the retention rate until 156 weeks after initiating tofacitinib. The secondary outcomes were short-term efficacy at 4, 8, and 12 weeks; long-term efficacy at 52, 104, and 156 weeks; prognostic factors related to the cumulative retention rate; loss of response; and safety profile, including adverse events. Results: Forty-six patients who were able to be monitored for up to 156 weeks after tofacitinib initiation, were enrolled in this study. Continuation of tofacitinib was possible until 156 weeks in 54.3%, with > 50% response rates and > 40% remission rates. Among patients in whom response or remission was achieved and tofacitinib was deescalated after 8 weeks of induction treatment, 54.3% experienced relapse but were successfully rescued by and retained on reinduction treatment, except for 1 patient. No serious AEs were observed in the study. Conclusions: Tofacitinib is effective and safe as long-term treatment in a refractory cohort of UC patients in real-world clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have investigated the association between reproductive factors and lung cancer risk; however, findings have been inconsistent. In order to assess this association among Asian women, a total of 308,949 female participants from 11 prospective cohorts and four Asian countries (Japan, Korea, China, and Singapore) were included. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 3,119 primary lung cancer cases and 2247 lung cancer deaths were identified with a mean follow‐up of 16.4 years. Parous women had a lower risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality as compared with nulliparous women, with HRs of 0.82 (95% CI = 0.70–0.96) and 0.78 (95% CI = 0.65–0.94). The protective association of parity and lung cancer incidence was greater among ever‐smokers (HR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49–0.87) than in never‐smokers (HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.74–1.09) (P‐interaction = 0.029). Compared with age at first delivery ≤20 years, older age at first delivery (21–25, ≥26 years) was associated with a lower risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality. Women who ever used hormone replacements had a higher likelihood of developing non‐small cell lung cancer (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.02–1.68), compared to those who never used hormone replacements. Future studies are needed to assess the underlying mechanisms, the relationships within these female reproductive factors, and the potential changes in smoking habits over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Evidence suggests a possible link between diabetes and gastric cancer risk, but the findings remain inconclusive, with limited studies in the Asian population. We aimed to assess the impact of diabetes and diabetes duration on the development of gastric cancer overall, by anatomical and histological subtypes. Methods: A pooled analysis was conducted using 12 prospective studies included in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Among 558 981 participants (median age 52), after a median follow‐up of 14.9 years and 10.5 years, 8556 incident primary gastric cancers and 8058 gastric cancer deaths occurred, respectively. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate study‐specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and pooled using random‐effects meta‐analyses. Results: Diabetes was associated with an increased incidence of overall gastric cancer (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06–1.25). The risk association did not differ significantly by sex (women vs men: HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.07–1.60 vs 1.12, 1.01–1.23), anatomical subsites (noncardia vs cardia: 1.14, 1.02–1.28 vs 1.17, 0.77–1.78) and histological subtypes (intestinal vs diffuse: 1.22, 1.02–1.46 vs 1.00, 0.62–1.61). Gastric cancer risk increased significantly during the first decade following diabetes diagnosis (HR 4.70, 95% CI 3.77–5.86), and decreased with time (nonlinear p <.01). Positive associations between diabetes and gastric cancer mortality were observed (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.03–1.28) but attenuated after a 2‐year time lag. Conclusion: Diabetes was associated with an increased gastric cancer incidence regardless of sex, anatomical subsite, or subtypes of gastric cancer. The risk of gastric cancer was particularly high during the first decade following diabetes diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Body fatness is considered a probable risk factor for biliary tract cancer (BTC), whereas cholelithiasis is an established factor. Nevertheless, although obesity is an established risk factor for cholelithiasis, previous studies of the association of body mass index (BMI) and BTC did not take the effect of cholelithiasis fully into account. To better understand the effect of BMI on BTC, we conducted a pooled analysis using population‐based cohort studies in Asians. In total, 905 530 subjects from 21 cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium were included. BMI was categorized into four groups: underweight (<18.5 kg/m2); normal (18.5‐22.9 kg/m2); overweight (23‐24.9 kg/m2); and obese (25+ kg/m2). The association between BMI and BTC incidence and mortality was assessed using hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by Cox regression models with shared frailty. Mediation analysis was used to decompose the association into a direct and an indirect (mediated) effect. Compared to normal BMI, high BMI was associated with BTC mortality (HR 1.19 [CI 1.02‐1.38] for males, HR 1.30 [1.14‐1.49] for females). Cholelithiasis had significant interaction with BMI on BTC risk. BMI was associated with BTC risk directly and through cholelithiasis in females, whereas the association was unclear in males. When cholelithiasis was present, BMI was not associated with BTC death in either males or females. BMI was associated with BTC death among females without cholelithiasis. This study suggests BMI is associated with BTC mortality in Asians. Cholelithiasis appears to contribute to the association; and moreover, obesity appears to increase BTC risk without cholelithiasis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]