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The authoritarian succession literature indicates that non-democratic regimes install rules and institutions that supposedly ensure a smooth transition from ruler to a chosen successor. However, this scholarship cannot explain why some authoritarian successions happen as planned while others end in surprising violence. This article unpacks the puzzle of the transition of power from Nursultan Nazarbayev (1991–2019) to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (2019–present) in autocratic Kazakhstan. Based on in-depth interviews with more than 15 informants and the analysis of media and secondary sources, we explore why and how the planned succession in Kazakhstan resulted in the bloodshed known as the 2022 Bloody January (Qandy Qantar). We demonstrate that two factors derailed the succession plan: the configuration of authoritarian rules and the presence of political ambitions of Tokayev. Our main argument is that the Nazarbayev succession plan led to elite disunity, escalating the political conflict into the violent 2022 Bloody January. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kerey is one of the prominent Kazakh tribes and has long been a subject of ethnographic scrutiny, with a lack of consensus on its origin and traditional genealogy. Their historical significance, intertwined with the emergence of the empire established by Genghis Khan, necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their genetic history. This study focuses on unraveling the genetic heritage of the Kerey tribe. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of Y-chromosome data from genetic genealogy as citizen science and genetic screening of 23 Y-STRs and 37 Y-SNPs on 207 males from the Kerey tribe within academic science. Our results reveal two prevalent phylogenetic lineages within the C2a1a3a-F3796 haplogroup, also known as the C2*-Star Cluster (C2*-ST), which is one of the founding paternal lineages of the ancient Niru'un clan of the Mongols: C2-FT411734 and C2-FT224144, corresponding to the Abak and Ashamaily clans. While indicating a common male ancestry for them, our findings challenge the notion that they are full siblings. Additionally, genetic diversity analysis of the Y-chromosomes in the Kerey tribe and Kazakhs confirms their kinship with the Uissun tribe but refutes the claim of the Abak clan's progenitor originating from this tribe. Furthermore, genetic evidence fails to support popular historical and ethnographic hypotheses regarding the Kerey tribe's kinship with the Uak, Sirgeli, Adai, Törtkara, Karakerey, and Kereyit Kazakh tribes. The absence of a genetic paternal connection with the Kereyt tribe raises doubts about the genealogical link between the Kerey tribe and the stepfather of Genghis Khan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-coverage whole-genome sequence studies have so far focused on a limited number of geographically restricted populations, or been targeted at specific diseases, such as cancer. Nevertheless, the availability of high-resolution genomic data has led to the development of new methodologies for inferring population history and refuelled the debate on the mutation rate in humans. Here we present the Estonian Biocentre Human Genome Diversity Panel (EGDP), a dataset of 483 high-coverage human genomes from 148 populations worldwide, including 379 new genomes from 125 populations, which we group into diversity and selection sets. We analyse this dataset to refine estimates of continent-wide patterns of heterozygosity, long- and short-distance gene flow, archaic admixture, and changes in effective population size through time as well as for signals of positive or balancing selection. We find a genetic signature in present-day Papuans that suggests that at least 2% of their genome originates from an early and largely extinct expansion of anatomically modern humans (AMHs) out of Africa. Together with evidence from the western Asian fossil record, and admixture between AMHs and Neanderthals predating the main Eurasian expansion, our results contribute to the mounting evidence for the presence of AMHs out of Africa earlier than 75,000 years ago.

It is commonly thought that human genetic diversity in non-African populations was shaped primarily by an out-of-Africa dispersal 50-100 thousand yr ago (kya). Here, we present a study of 456 geographically diverse high-coverage Y chromosome sequences, including 299 newly reported samples. Applying ancient DNA calibration, we date the Y-chromosomal most recent common ancestor (MRCA) in Africa at 254 (95% CI 192-307) kya and detect a cluster of major non-African founder haplogroups in a narrow time interval at 47-52 kya, consistent with a rapid initial colonization model of Eurasia and Oceania after the out-of-Africa bottleneck. In contrast to demographic reconstructions based on mtDNA, we infer a second strong bottleneck in Y-chromosome lineages dating to the last 10 ky. We hypothesize that this bottleneck is caused by cultural changes affecting variance of reproductive success among males.

Academia, in much of the world, has long been disproportionately populated by men. This pattern, at least in the social sciences, may be changing. We explore the shifting gender gap in political science in Kazakhstan, and then set out to explore potential determinants of the changes as well as the resulting employment patterns. We use time-series data to demonstrate that a rising GDP, shifting fertility rates, occupational prestige and a growing population are related to the increase in the number of women entering political science in Kazakhstan, which, nevertheless, has not resulted in employment parity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The haplotypes from Northern, Southern, Eastern, and Western Kazakhstan, analysed for 27 Y-STR loci, have been contributed to the Y-Chromosome STR Haplotype Reference Database, while the genetic profile of Central Kazakhstan remains inadequately explored., Aim: To investigate the genetic diversity of 27 Y-STR loci in the Kazakh populations from Central Kazakhstan., Subjects and Methods: A total of 112 unrelated Central Kazakh males were genotyped via the Yfiler Plus kit. Data analysis yielded haplotype and allele frequencies, and forensic parameters. Genetic distances were graphically represented by a multidimensional scaling plot, with genetic linkages further elucidated through Nei's distance dendrograms and Median-joining networks., Results: A total of 102 haplotypes were detected, of which 96 were unique. The haplotype diversity and discrimination capacity were 0.997 and 0.91, respectively. Central Kazakhstan displays a unique cluster in analyses, underscoring its distinct Y-chromosome diversity compared to other Kazakh regions. The analysis of the Naiman tribe, predominantly residing in Central, Southern and Eastern Kazakhstan, revealed three genetic clusters of distinct haplogroups associated with their clans., Conclusions: The identified haplotypes will enhance the existing reference database for Y-chromosomal studies in Kazakhstan, offering a robust tool for future research in population genetics, forensic science and genetic genealogy.