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1. Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Author: Sarah Cubaynes, Jon Aars, Nigel G. Yoccoz, Roger Pradel, Øystein Wiig, Rolf A. Ims, and Olivier Gimenez
Subjects: apex predator, arctic ecosystem, Bayesian modeling, capture–recapture, dependency among individuals, family structure, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: Abstract In species providing extended parental care, one or both parents care for altricial young over a period including more than one breeding season. We expect large parental investment and long‐term dependency within family units to cause high variability in life trajectories among individuals with complex consequences at the population level. So far, models for estimating demographic parameters in free‐ranging animal populations mostly ignore extended parental care, thereby limiting our understanding of its consequences on parents and offspring life histories. We designed a capture–recapture multievent model for studying the demography of species providing extended parental care. It handles statistical multiple‐year dependency among individual demographic parameters grouped within family units, variable litter size, and uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence. It allows for the evaluation of trade‐offs among demographic parameters, the influence of past reproductive history on the caring parent's survival status, breeding probability, and litter size probability, while accounting for imperfect detection of family units. We assess the model performance using simulated data and illustrate its use with a long‐term dataset collected on the Svalbard polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Our model performed well in terms of bias and mean square error and in estimating demographic parameters in all simulated scenarios, both when offspring departure probability from the family unit occurred at a constant rate or varied during the field season depending on the date of capture. For the polar bear case study, we provide estimates of adult and dependent offspring survival rates, breeding probability, and litter size probability. Results showed that the outcome of the previous reproduction influenced breeding probability. Overall, our results show the importance of accounting for i) the multiple‐year statistical dependency within family units, ii) uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence, and iii) past reproductive history of the caring parent. If ignored, estimates obtained for breeding probability, litter size, and survival can be biased. This is of interest in terms of conservation because species providing extended parental care are often long‐living mammals vulnerable or threatened with extinction.
Published: 2021
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2. Do Suburban Populations of Lizards Behave Differently from Forest Ones? An Analysis of Perch Height, Time Budget, and Display Rate in the Cuban Endemic Anolis homolechis

Author: Annabelle Vidal, Roger Pradel, and Frank Cézilly
Subjects: anoles, habitat effect, lizards, perch height, sex-habitat interaction, suburban populations, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract: Urbanization transforms natural ecosystems into novel habitats, which can result in negative consequences for biodiversity. Therefore, it is important to understand the mechanisms of maintenance of native species in urbanized environments, including behavior—which can act as a fast response to rapid environmental changes. We compared some behavioral traits between two suburban and two forest populations of Anolis homolechis. Direct observations of 779 individuals revealed that perch height was positively influenced by body size, but not by sex. Suburban individuals perched higher than forest ones, and even more so in the afternoon compared to the morning; a behavior that was not observed in forests populations. These differences might be due to a change from foraging activities in the morning to vigilance, display, and/or thermoregulation in the afternoon, promoted by suburban habitat conditions (e.g., higher predator abundance, open habitat structure, and urban heat). Video recordings of 81 focal individuals showed that males were more active than females (i.e., spending less time in stationary behavior and having a higher display rate), with no significant effect of habitat type. As some of our results diverge from previous studies on invasive anoles, we recommend extending comparative studies of urban and non-urban populations to other native Anolis.
Published: 2023
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3. High long‐term survival and asymmetric movements in a reintroduced metapopulation of Cinereous vultures

Author: Typhaine Rousteau, Olivier Duriez, Roger Pradel, François Sarrazin, Thierry David, Sylvain Henriquet, Christian Tessier, and Jean‐Baptiste Mihoub
Subjects: Aegypius monachus, demography, multievent capture–recapture modeling, raptors, reintroduction, scavengers, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: Abstract Post‐release mortality and movements are critical factors of translocation failure. Yet, survival and movement reflect different demographic and behavioral processes and may therefore have contrasted responses to management, although they are often very difficult to disentangle in animal populations. To provide guidance in animal translocations, we discriminated the respective roles of survival and movement in the long‐term dynamic of a translocated metapopulation of Cinereous vultures (Aegypius monachus) in France using multievent capture–recapture analyses of reintroduced (n = 119) and wild‐born individual (n = 163) observations. Annual apparent survival rates were high and structured in age (>0.8 for young and >0.9 for adults) and did not differ between individual origin (wild‐born or released), release methods (aviary or hacking) nor between regions (Alps and Causses), except for those released in the Alps experiencing a reduced survival for one year after release. In contrast, age structure movements differed between populations and origin status. Wild‐born young from the Causses were more erratic than those from the Alps and older individuals, whereas vultures reintroduced in the Causses demonstrated restricted movements during their first year after release. Despite such asymmetric movements, we overall highlight a strong tropism of individuals whatever the region and their origin. Since movement and survival were respectively higher and lower in young compared with adults, we recommend to first release adults in the primary stage of metapopulation translocations for increasing the establishment success at the release site. Further releasing young and securing successful breeding into the wild would increase demographic growth and between‐population connections.
Published: 2022
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4. Consequences of past and present harvest management in a declining flyway population of common eiders Somateria mollissima

Author: Rune S. Tjørnløv, Roger Pradel, Rémi Choquet, Thomas Kjær Christensen, and Morten Frederiksen
Subjects: CMR modeling, demography, hunting bag statistics, multi‐event model, population dynamics, prospective population scenario, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: Abstract Harvested species population dynamics are shaped by the relative contribution of natural and harvest mortality. Natural mortality is usually not under management control, so managers must continuously adjust harvest rates to prevent overexploitation. Ideally, this requires regular assessment of the contribution of harvest to total mortality and how this affects population dynamics. To assess the impact of hunting mortality on the dynamics of the rapidly declining Baltic/Wadden Sea population of common eiders Somateria mollissima, we first estimated vital rates of ten study colonies over the period 1970–2015. By means of a multi‐event capture–recovery model, we then used the cause of death of recovered individuals to estimate proportions of adult females that died due to hunting or other causes. Finally, we adopted a stochastic matrix population modeling approach based on simulations to investigate the effect of past and present harvest regulations on changes in flyway population size and composition. Results showed that even the complete ban on shooting females implemented in 2014 in Denmark, where most hunting takes place, was not enough to stop the population decline given current levels of natural female mortality. Despite continued hunting of males, our predictions suggest that the proportion of females will continue to decline unless natural mortality of the females is reduced. Although levels of natural mortality must decrease to halt the decline of this population, we advocate that the current hunting ban on females is maintained while further investigations of factors causing increased levels of natural mortality among females are undertaken. Synthesis and applications. At the flyway scale, continuous and accurate estimates of vital rates and the relative contribution of harvest versus other mortality causes are increasingly important as the population effect of adjusting harvest rates is most effectively evaluated within a model‐based adaptive management framework.
Published: 2019
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5. Accounting for heterogeneity when estimating stopover duration, timing and population size of red knots along the Luannan Coast of Bohai Bay, China

Author: Tamar Lok, Chris J. Hassell, Theunis Piersma, Roger Pradel, and Olivier Gimenez
Subjects: heterogeneity, Jolly–Seber, mark–recapture, migration, population size, red knot, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: Abstract To successfully perform their long‐distance migrations, migratory birds require sites along their migratory routes to rest and refuel. Monitoring the use of so‐called stopover and staging sites provides insights into (a) the timing of migration and (b) the importance of a site for migratory bird populations. A recently developed Bayesian superpopulation model that integrates mark–recapture data and ring density data enabled the estimation of stopover timing, duration, and population size. Yet, this model did not account for heterogeneity in encounter (p) and staying (ϕ) probabilities. Here we extended the integrated superpopulation model by implementing finite mixtures to account for heterogeneity in p and ϕ. We used simulations and real data (from 2009–2016) on red knots Calidris canutus, mostly of the subspecies piersmai, staging in Bohai Bay, China, during spring migration to (a) show the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in encounter and staying probabilities to get unbiased estimates of stopover timing, duration, and numbers of migratory birds at staging sites and (b) get accurate stopover parameter estimates for a migratory bird species at a key staging site that is threatened by habitat destruction. Our simulations confirmed that heterogeneity in p affected stopover parameter estimates more than heterogeneity in ϕ, especially when most birds had low p. Bias was particularly severe when most birds had both low ϕ and p. Bias was largest for population size, intermediate for stopover duration and negligible for stopover timing. A total of 50,000–100,000 red knots were estimated to annually stop for 5–9 days in Bohai Bay between 10 and 30 May. This shows the key importance of this staging site for this declining species. There were no clear changes in stopover parameters over time, although stopover population size was substantially lower in 2016 than in preceding years. Our study shows the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in both encounter and staying probabilities for accurately estimating stopover duration and population size and provides an appropriate modeling framework.
Published: 2019
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6. A Test for the Underlying State-Structure of Hidden Markov Models: Partially Observed Capture-Recapture Data

Author: Anita Jeyam, Rachel S. McCrea, and Roger Pradel
Subjects: multievent model, capture-recapture, partial observations, mixture of multinomials, Hidden markov model, Evolution, QH359-425, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are being widely used in the field of ecological modeling, however determining the number of underlying states in an HMM remains a challenge. Here we examine a special case of capture-recapture models for open populations, where some animals are observed but it is not possible to ascertain their state (partial observations), whilst the other animals' states are assigned without error (complete observations). We propose a mixture test of the underlying state structure generating the partial observations, which assesses whether they are compatible with the set of states observed in the complete observations. We demonstrate the good performance of the test using simulation and through application to a data set of Canada Geese.
Published: 2021
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7. A multi-event capture-recapture analysis of Toxoplasma gondii seroconversion dynamics in farm cats

Author: Julie Alice Simon, Roger Pradel, Dominique Aubert, Régine Geers, Isabelle Villena, and Marie-Lazarine Poulle
Subjects: Toxoplasmosis, Domestic cats, Capture-recapture, Multi-event modelling, Infection dynamics, Serological titres, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216
Abstract: Abstract Background Domestic cats play a key role in the epidemiology of the parasite Toxoplasma gondii by excreting environmentally-resistant oocysts that may infect humans and other warm-blooded animals. The dynamics of Toxoplasma gondii seroconversion, used as a proxy for primo-infection dynamics, was investigated in five cat populations living on farms. Methods Serological tests on blood samples from cats were performed every three months over a period of two years, for a total of 400 serological tests performed on 130 cats. Variations in seroconversion rates and associated factors were investigated using a multi-event capture-recapture modelling approach that explicitly accounted for uncertainties in cat age and serological status. Results Seroprevalence varied between farms, from 15 to 73%, suggesting differential exposure of cats to T. gondii. In farms with high exposure, cats could become infected before reaching the age of six months. Seroconversion rates varied from 0.42 to 0.96 seroconversions per cat per year and were higher in autumn and winter than in spring and summer. Conclusion Our results suggest inter-farm and seasonal variations in the risks of exposure to T. gondii oocysts for humans and livestock living on farms. The paper also discusses the role of young cats in the maintenance of environmental contamination by T. gondii oocysts on farms.
Published: 2018
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8. Assessment of individual and conspecific reproductive success as determinants of breeding dispersal of female tree swallows: A capture–recapture approach

Author: Paméla Lagrange, Olivier Gimenez, Blandine Doligez, Roger Pradel, Dany Garant, Fanie Pelletier, and Marc Bélisle
Subjects: capture–recapture data, dispersal, multievent model, reproductive success, social information, tree swallow, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: Abstract Breeding dispersal is a key process of population structure and dynamics and is often triggered by an individual's breeding failure. In both colonial and territorial birds, reproductive success of conspecifics (RSc) can also lead individuals to change breeding sites after a failure on a site. Yet, few studies have simultaneously investigated the independent contribution of individual reproductive success (RSi) and of RSc on dispersal decision. Here, we develop a modeling framework to disentangle the effects of RSi and RSc on demographic parameters, while accounting for imperfect individual detection and other confounding factors such as age or dispersal behavior in the previous year. Using a 10‐year capture–recapture dataset composed of 1,595 banded tree swallows, we assessed the effects of nonmanipulated RSi and RSc on female breeding dispersal in this semicolonial passerine. Dispersal was strongly driven by RSi, but not by RSc. Unsuccessful females were 9.5–2.5 times more likely to disperse than successful ones, depending if they had dispersed or not in the previous year, respectively. Unsuccessful females were also three times less likely to be detected than successful ones. Contrary to theoretical and empirical studies, RSc did not drive the decision to disperse but influenced the selection of the following breeding site once dispersal had been initiated. Because detection of individuals was driven by RSi, which was positively correlated to RSc, assuming a perfect detection as in previous studies may have lead us to conclude that RSc affected dispersal patterns, yet our approach corrected for this bias. Overall, our results suggest that the value and use of RSc as public information to guide dispersal decisions are likely dictated by multiple ecological determinants, such as landscape structure and extent, if this cue is indeed used.
Published: 2017
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9. Transience effect in capture-recapture studies: The importance of its biological meaning.

Author: Meritxell Genovart and Roger Pradel
Subjects: Medicine, Science
Abstract: Capture-recapture (CR) models are an essential tool for estimating demographic parameters in most animal and some plant populations. To avoid drawing incorrect conclusions in any statistical inference, a crucial prerequisite is to assess the goodness of fit of a general model to the data. In CR models, a frequent cause of lack of fit, is the so-called transience effect, which is due to a lower expectation of re-observation of individuals marked for the first time as compared to other individuals. The transience effect may result either from different biological causes or from the sampling procedure. A transience effect is usually treated by distinguishing at least two age-classes in the survival probability, but other approaches may be more suitable. Here we develop a conceptual and analytical framework for including a transience effect in capture-recapture models. We show the implementation of two additional parametrizations that incorporate a transience effect. With these parametrizations, we can directly estimate the "transience probability" defined as the probability that a newly caught individual disappear from the population beyond what is expected based on the behavior of the previously caught individuals in the same sample. Additionally, these parametrizations allow testing biological hypotheses concerning drivers affecting this probability. Results from our case study show differences between parametrizations, with the parametrization most currently used giving different estimates, especially when including covariates. We advocate for a unifying framework for treating a transience effect, that helps clarifying the ideas and terminology, and where the biological reasons should be the rule for choosing the appropriate analytical procedure. This framework will also open new and powerful ways for the detection and exploration of ecological processes such as the costs of the first reproduction or the deleterious effects of some types of marking.
Published: 2019
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10. Inter-annual variability in flowering of orchids: lessons learned from 8 years of monitoring in a Mediterranean region of France

Author: Hélène Vogt-Schilb, Philippe Geniez, Roger Pradel, Franck Richard, and Bertrand Schatz
Subjects: orchid community, diachronic studies, orchid monitoring, similarity index, conservation, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: It is important to evaluate the loss of biodiversity caused by global changes. In the case of orchids, it is still unclear how long the monitoring duration should be chosen in order to achieve a good compromise between the reliability of the orchid dynamics recorded and sampling duration (e.g. years of monitoring). This study aims to propose a method of monitoring orchids. Using a large database, we investigated the inter-annual variability in flowering of orchids in a French Mediterranean region. The database includes an 8-year-long study (2006–2013) of 47 species at 26 locations in three different types of habitats. The number of individual plants that flowered per species varied significantly between years, but not the number of species. Depending on habitat, two to four years were needed to observe the total number of species per location. Therefore, in Mediterranean regions a one-year-study seems to be insufficient to produce reliable results.
Published: 2013

11. Movement patterns in a partial migrant: a multi-event capture-recapture approach.

Author: Marie-Lucile Gourlay-Larour, Roger Pradel, Matthieu Guillemain, Jean-Sébastien Guitton, Monique L'Hostis, Hugues Santin-Janin, and Alain Caizergues
Subjects: Medicine, Science
Abstract: Partial migration is a pervasive albeit poorly studied phenomenon by which some individuals of a population migrate while others are residents. It has tremendous consequences on seasonal variations of population size/structure and therefore management. Using a multi-event capture-mark-recapture/recovery (CMR) approach, we assessed seasonal site occupancy, survival and site fidelity of a partially migratory diving duck, the Common pochard (Aythya ferina), in an area potentially including both local breeders and winter visitors. The modelling exercise indeed discriminated two different categories of individuals. First, locally breeding females which had a probability of being present in our study area during winter of 0.41. Females of this category were found to be more faithful to their breeding site than males (breeding site fidelity probabilities of 1 and 0.11, respectively). The second category of birds were winter visitors, which included adults of both sexes, whose probability of being present in the study area during the breeding season was nil, and young of both sexes with a 0.11 probability of being present in the area during the breeding season. All wintering individuals, among which there was virtually no locally breeding male, displayed a high fidelity to our study area from one winter to the next (0.41-0.43). Estimated annual survival rates differed according to age (adults 0.69, young 0.56). For both age classes mortality was higher during late winter/early spring than during summer/early winter. Our study is among the first to show how and under which conditions the multi-event approach can be employed for investigating complex movement patterns encountered in partial migrants, providing a convenient tool for overcoming state uncertainty. It also shows why studying patterns of probability of individual presence/movements in partial migrants is a key towards understanding seasonal variations in numbers.
Published: 2014
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12. Modeling trap-awareness and related phenomena in capture-recapture studies.

Author: Roger Pradel and Ana Sanz-Aguilar
Subjects: Medicine, Science
Abstract: Trap-awareness and related phenomena whereby successive capture events are not independent is a feature of the majority of capture-recapture studies. This phenomenon was up to now difficult to incorporate in open population models and most authors have chosen to neglect it although this may have damaging consequences. Focusing on the situation where animals exhibit a trap response at the occasion immediately following one where they have been trapped but revert to their original naïve state if they are missed once, we show that trap-dependence is more naturally viewed as a state transition and is amenable to the current models of capture-recapture. This approach has the potential to accommodate lasting or progressively waning trap effects.
Published: 2012
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13. Correction: Modeling Trap-Awareness and Related Phenomena in Capture-Recapture Studies.

Author: Roger Pradel and Ana Sanz-Aguilar
Subjects: Medicine, Science
Published: 2012
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14. Breeding experience might be a major determinant of breeding probability in long-lived species: the case of the greater flamingo.

Author: Roger Pradel, Rémi Choquet, and Arnaud Béchet
Subjects: Medicine, Science
Abstract: The probability of breeding is known to increase with age early in life in many long-lived species. This increase may be due to experience accumulated through past breeding attempts. Recent methodological advances allowing accounting for unobserved breeding episodes, we analyzed the encounter histories of 14716 greater flamingos over 25 years to get a detailed picture of the interactions of age and experience. Survival did not improve with experience, seemingly ruling out the selection hypothesis. Breeding probability varied within three levels of experience : no breeding experience, 1 experience, 2+ experiences. We fitted models with and without among-individual differences in breeding probabilities by including or not an additive individual random effect. Including the individual random effect improved the model fit less than including experience but the best model retained both. However, because modeling individual heterogeneity by means of an additive static individual random effect is currently criticized and may not be appropriate, we discuss the results with and without random effect. Without random effect, breeding probability of inexperienced birds was always [Formula: see text] times lower than that of same age experienced birds, and breeding probability increased more with one additional experience than with one additional year of age. With random effects, the advantage of experience was unequivocal only after age 9 while in young having [Formula: see text] experience was penalizing. Another pattern, that breeding probability of birds with [Formula: see text] experiences dropped after some age (8 without random effect; up to 11 with it), may point to differences in the timing of reproductive senescence or to the existence of a sensitive period for acquiring behavioral skills. Overall, the role of experience appears strong in this long-lived species. We argue that overlooking the role of experience may hamper detection of trade-offs and assessment of individual heterogeneity. However, manipulative experiments are desirable to confirm our finding.
Published: 2012
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15. Variations in band reporting rate and implications for kill rate in Greater Snow Geese

Author: Guillaume Souchay, Olivier Gimenez, Gilles Gauthier, and Roger Pradel
Subjects: Atlantic Flyway, band recovery, Greater Snow Goose, kill rate, reporting rate, reward band, spatial variation, temporal variation, waterfowl, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract: We assessed spatial and temporal variation in reporting probability of banded Greater Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica) shot by hunters in eastern North America and evaluated potential residual biases in kill rate estimation. Adult Greater Snow Geese were marked with reward (value: US$10, $20, $30, $50, and $100) and standard bands ($0, control) in the Canadian Arctic from 2003 to 2005. We used a spatially explicit multinomial model based on 200 direct recoveries from 4256 banded geese to estimate reporting rate and harvest rate. We found that reporting rate for standard bands varied over time whereas harvest rate was higher in Canada than in the U.S. The reporting probability increased from 0.40 ± 0.11 in the first year of the study to 0.82 ± 0.14 and 0.84 ± 0.13 the second and third years, respectively. Overall, these reporting rates are higher than two previous estimates for this population, which leads to lower estimates of kill rate. However, the large annual differences in reporting rates found in this study lead to uncertainty in the estimation of kill rate. We suggest that the increase in reporting rate in the last two year of the study may be due to the dissemination of information among hunters regarding the presence of reward bands on birds, resulting in increased reporting rate for all bands. This raises issues about the need to adequately inform the public in such large-scale studies to avoid undesirable temporal trends over the course of the study.
Published: 2014
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16. Evidence for synergistic cumulative impacts of marking and hunting in a wildlife species

Author: Frédéric LeTourneux, Gilles Gauthier, Roger Pradel, Josée Lefebvre, and Pierre Legagneux
Subjects: Ecology
Published: 2022

17. Spatially balanced sampling methods are always more precise than random ones for estimating the size of aggregated populations

Author: Jan Perret, Anne Charpentier, Roger Pradel, Guillaume Papuga, Aurélien Besnard, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP), and Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)
Subjects: Spatial point process, Survey design, Plant population, Balanced acceptance sampling, Ecological Modeling, [SDV.BV.BOT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Botanics, [SDV.BID.SPT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, Clustered population, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Autocorrelation, Sampling error, Population monitoring, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Abstract: International audience; Population size is a crucial parameter for both ecological research and conservation planning. When individuals are aggregated, estimating the size of a population through sampling raises methodological challenges, as the high variance between sampling units leads to imprecise estimates. Choosing the right sample design depending on the population aggregation level could improve the precision of estimates; however, this is difficult because studies comparing sample designs for aggregated populations have been limited to a few populations and sampling designs, so their results cannot be generalised. To address this gap, we combined simulations of spatial point populations and field counts of three plant species to compare the relative precision of estimates between three sampling methods: simple random sampling (SRS), systematic sampling (SYS) and spatially balanced sampling (SBS). Comparisons were performed on density and aggregation gradients for a range of sample sizes. Our simulations showed that SYS and SBS were always more precise than SRS when individuals were aggregated, reducing sampling variance up to 80% and 60%. The highest precision for estimating population size was always obtained when the average distance between sampling units equalled the diameter of the clusters (i.e. the groups of individuals). The difference in precision was similar for the natural populations, with sampling variance lowered by up to 75% (SYS) and 60% (SBS) compared to SRS. These findings lead us to recommend using SYS or SBS rather than SRS to estimate population size when individuals are spatially aggregated, as these consistently provide more precise estimates. Assessing cluster diameters in the field enables a quick assessment of the potential gain in precision to expect, and thus the best choice of sampling method depending on the trade-off between precision and field constraints.
Published: 2022

18. Author response for 'Spatially balanced sampling methods are always more precise than random ones for estimating the size of aggregated populations'

Author: null Jan Perret, null Anne Charpentier, null Roger Pradel, null Guillaume Papuga, and null Aurélien Besnard
Published: 2022

19. Will climate change affect the survival of tropical and subtropical species? Predictions based on Bulwer's petrel populations in the NE Atlantic Ocean

Author: Marta Cruz-Flores, Roger Pradel, Joël Bried, Teresa Militão, Verónica C. Neves, Jacob González-Solís, Raül Ramos, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés (LIENSs), La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat - Biodiversity Research Institute [Barcelona, Spain] (IRBio UB), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Université de Montpellier (UM), OKEANOS, Instituto de Investigação em Ciências do Mar, Universidade dos Açores, Horta, and MCF was supported by a predoctoral grant from the University ofBarcelona and the H2020 Marie Skłodowska Curie Actions (H2020-MSCAIF-2020, ref. 101024166). JB was supported by the Fundação para a Ciênciae a Tecnologia (project ref. PTDC/BIABDE/67286/2006), the Fundo Europeude Desenvolvimento Regional (programme COMPETE, ref. FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-007061) and the Programme MoniAves (launched by the RegionalDirectorate of the Environment of the Azores and coordinated by R.S. Santos).VN was supported by a Investigador Mar-AZ contract (01-1045-FEDER-000140, PO Açores 2020) and by a postdoctoral grant from the RegionalFund for Science and Technology (FRCT/M3.1.a/F/072/2016). RR was supportedby a postdoctoral Ramón y Cajal contract of the Spanish MINECO(RYC-2017-22055). This study was funded by MINECO (CGL2006-01315/BOS, CGL2009-11278/BOS, CGL2013-42585-P and CGL2016-78530-R),Fondos FEDER, the Research Executive Agency (European Commission,FP7-PEOPLE-2013-CIG, 618841), the MAVA Foundation pour la nature(MAVA17022)
Subjects: Bulweria bulwerii, Tropical Climate, Environmental Engineering, Capture-mark-recapture CMR, Climate Change, Sea surface temperature SST, Pollution, Birds, Greenhouse Gases, IPCC emission scenarios, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental Chemistry, Animals, Seasons, Waste Management and Disposal, Atlantic Ocean, Demography
Abstract: International audience; Climate change has repeatedly been shown to impact the demography and survival ofmarine top predators. However, most evidence comes from single populations of widely distributed species, limited mainly to polar and subpolar environments. Here, we aimed to evaluate the influence of environmental conditions on the survival of a tropical and migratory seabird over the course of its annual cycle.We used capture-mark-recapture data fromthree populations of Bulwer's petrel (Bulweria bulwerii) spread across the NE Atlantic Ocean, from the Azores, Canary, and Cabo Verde Islands (including temperate to tropical zones). We also inferred how the survival of this seabird might be affected under different climatic scenarios, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among the environmental variables whose effect we evaluated (North Atlantic Oscillation index, Southern Oscillation Index, Sea Surface Temperature [SST] and wind speed), SST estimated for the breeding area and season was the variable with the greatest influence on adult survival. Negative effects of SST increase emerged across the three populations,most likely through indirect trophicweb interactions. Unfortunately, our study also shows that the survival of Bulwer's petrel will be profoundly affected by the different scenarios of climate change, even with the most optimistic trajectory involving the lowest greenhouse gas emission. Furthermore, for the first time, our study predicts stronger impacts of climate change on tropical populations than on subtropical and temperate ones. This result highlights the devastating effect that climate changemay also have on tropical areas, and the importance of considering multi-population approaches when evaluating its impacts which may differ across species distributions.
Published: 2022

20. Will Climate Change Affect Survival of Tropical and Subtropical Species? Predictions from Bulwer's Petrel Populations Across the Ne Atlantic Ocean

Author: Marta Cruz-Flores, Roger Pradel, Joël Bried, Teresa Militão, Verónica C. Neves, Jacob González-Solís, and Raül Ramos
Subjects: History, Polymers and Plastics, Business and International Management, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Published: 2022

21. When to depart from a stopover site? Time since arrival matters more than current weather conditions

Author: Roger Pradel, Sebastien Roques, Emmanuelle Cam, Pierre-Yves Henry, Gaetan Guyot, Bruno Bargain, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Mécanismes Adaptatifs et Evolution (MECADEV), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d'Oiseaux (CRBPO ), Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la COnservation (CESCO), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Bretagne Vivante, Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Environnement Marin (LEMAR) (LEMAR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (IUEM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, biology, time since arrival, Bayesian inference, 05 social sciences, capture-recapture, 15. Life on land, stopover, biology.organism_classification, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Sedge warbler, Current (stream), Sedge Warbler, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences, Animal Science and Zoology, 050102 behavioral science & comparative psychology, Physical geography, Proxy (statistics), TSA, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Body condition
Abstract: On the journey to wintering sites, most migratory birds alternate between flights and stopovers, where they rest and refuel. In contrast to the time-minimization strategy commonly assumed to drive the pre-breeding migration, birds are rather expected to follow an energy minimization during post-breeding migration. It is the cumulative duration of flights and stopovers that determines the total energy requirements and duration of the journey. Since migrating birds actually spend most of the time at stopovers sites, selection to minimize the amount of energy or time spent on migration is likely to operate on the effectiveness of stopover rest and refueling. Here, we address the relative contribution of factors acting on departure decisions from a stopover site during the post-breeding migration in a long-distance migratory songbird. When capture probability is low, it is impossible to measure fattening over the entire duration of the stopover. To get around this limitation, we use time since arrival (TSA) as a proxy for the progressive temporal change occurring in the internal state of an individual (i.e. rest, physiological recovery, and fuel loading) during the stopover. We develop a capture-recapture model to address the respective effects of estimated TSA and of weather conditions on departure probability. Using a 20-year dataset for Sedge Warblers (Acrocephalus schoenobaenus), we show that TSA served as a surrogate of the most important information that birds use when deciding to depart from a stopover site, while low humidity and rising atmospheric pressure only slightly increase daily departure probability. Hence, a bird would resume migration mainly according to the time it had to rest and refuel, and then fine-tuning departure decision according to weather conditions. The generality of these results needs to be assessed by applying this modeling framework to other migratory species and at sites or times with greater weather variability., Au cours de leur voyage vers les sites d’hivernage, la plupart des oiseaux migrateurs alternent entre vols et haltes migratoires, où ils se reposent et se ravitaillent. Contrairement à la stratégie de minimization de la durée de la migration, communément associée à la migration prénuptiale, les oiseaux suivent plutôt une stratégie de minimization de l’énergie pendant la migration postnuptiale. C’est la durée cumulée des vols et des haltes qui détermine les besoins énergétiques totaux et la durée du voyage. Puisque les oiseaux migrateurs passent la plupart du temps de migration sur les sites de halte, le choix de minimizer la quantité d’énergie ou le temps consacré à la migration est très susceptible d’opérer sur l’efficacité du repos et du ravitaillement durant la halte. Nous nous penchons ici sur la contribution relative des facteurs agissant sur les décisions de départ d’un site de halte pendant la migration postnuptiale chez un passereau migrateur longue distance. Lorsque la probabilité de capture est faible, il est impossible de mesurer l’engraissement sur toute la durée de la halte. Pour contourner cette limitation, nous utilisons le temps depuis l’arrivée (TSA) comme un indicateur du changement temporel progressif qui se produit dans l’état interne d’un individu (c’est-à-dire le repos, la récupération physiologique et la quantité d’énergie accumulée) pendant la halte. Nous développons ici un modèle de capture–recapture pour estimer les effets respectifs du TSA estimé et des conditions météorologiques sur la probabilité de départ. À l’aide d’un jeu de données de plus de 20 ans sur les phragmites des joncs, nous montrons que le TSA constitue l’information la plus importante dans la décision de départ d’un site de halte, tandis qu’une faible humidité et une pression atmosphérique croissante n’augmentent que légèrement la probabilité de départ quotidienne. Par conséquent, un oiseau reprendrait sa migration principalement en fonction du temps dont il dispose pour se reposer et se ravitailler, puis affinerait sa décision de départ en fonction des conditions météorologiques. La généralité de ces résultats doit être évaluée en appliquant ce cadre de modélisation à d’autres espèces migratrices, ainsi qu’à des sites ou des périodes présentant une plus grande variabilité météorologique.
Published: 2021

22. Sex‐specific effects of fisheries and climate on the demography of sexually dimorphic seabirds

Author: Stephen C. Votier, Deborah Pardo, Geoffrey N. Tuck, Richard A. Phillips, Stuart Townley, Roger Pradel, A. G. Wood, Jaume Forcada, Louise Ireland, Richard B. Sherley, Rémi Choquet, Dimas Gianuca, University of Exeter, Environment and Sustainability Institute [Penryn, UK], British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University of Nottingham, UK (UON), University of Cape Town, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Environment and Sustainability Institute, and Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)
Subjects: Male, 0106 biological sciences, Foraging, Fisheries, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Birds, Commercial fishing, Animals, Population growth, Carrion, 14. Life underwater, Atlantic Ocean, Sea ice concentration, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Demography, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, Islands, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Pelagic zone, Sexual dimorphism, Fishery, Female, Animal Science and Zoology, Matrix population models
Abstract: International audience; 1. Many animal taxa exhibit sex-specific variation in ecological traits, such as foraging and distribution. These differences could result in sex-specific responses to change, but such demographic effects are poorly understood. 2. Here, we test for sex-specific differences in the demography of northern (NGP, Macronectes halli) and southern (SGP, M. giganteus) giant petrels-strongly sexually size-dimorphic birds that breed sympatrically at South Georgia, South Atlantic Ocean. Both species feed at sea or on carrion on land, but larger males (30% heavier) are more reliant on terrestrial foraging than the more pelagic females. Using multi-event mark-recapture models, we examine the impacts of long-term changes in environmental conditions and commercial fishing on annual adult survival and use two-sex matrix population models to forecast future trends. 3. As expected, survival of male NGP was positively affected by carrion availability, but negatively affected by zonal winds. Female survival was positively affected by meridional winds and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and negatively affected by sea ice concentration and pelagic longline effort. Survival of SGPs did not differ between sexes; however, survival of males only was positively correlated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). 4. Two-sex population projections indicate that future environmental conditions are likely to benefit giant petrels. However, any potential increase in pelagic longline fisheries could reduce female survival and population growth. 5. Our study reveals that sex-specific ecological differences can lead to divergent responses to environmental drivers (i.e. climate and fisheries). Moreover, because such effects may not be apparent when all individuals are considered together, ignoring sex differences could underestimate the relative influence of a changing environment on demography. K E Y W O R D S giant petrels, Macronectes giganteus, Macronectes halli, sex-specific effects, sexual size dimorphism, South Georgia, Southern Ocean, survival
Published: 2019

23. Making use of multiple surveys: Estimating breeding probability using a multievent‐robust design capture–recapture model

Author: P J Nico de Bruyn, Roger Pradel, W. Chris Oosthuizen, Marthán N Bester, Department of Zoology and Entomology [Pretoria], University of Pretoria [South Africa], Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Department of Zoology and Entomology, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), and Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Computer science, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Population, Climate change, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Unobservable, breeding propensity, Mark and recapture, 03 medical and health sciences, Statistics, robust design, Elephant seal, education, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Semelparity and iteroparity, 030304 developmental biology, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Original Research, intermittent breeding, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, 0303 health sciences, education.field_of_study, Ecology, biology, Sampling (statistics), Variance (accounting), unobservable state, biology.organism_classification, auxiliary data, incidental observations, 13. Climate action, elephant seal
Abstract: International audience; Increased environmental stochasticity due to climate change will intensify temporal variance in the life-history traits, and especially breeding probabilities, of long-lived iteroparous species. These changes may decrease individual fitness and population viability and is therefore important to monitor. In wild animal populations with imperfect individual detection, breeding probabilities are best estimated using capture-recapture methods. However, in many vertebrate species (e.g., amphibians, turtles, seabirds), nonbreeders are unobservable because they are not tied to a territory or breeding location. Although unobservable states can be used to model temporary emigration of nonbreeders, there are disadvantages to having unobservable states in capture-recapture models. The best solution to deal with unobservable life-history states is therefore to eliminate them altogether. Here, we achieve this objective by fitting novel multievent-robust design models which utilize information obtained from multiple surveys conducted throughout the year. We use this approach to estimate annual breeding probabilities of capital breeding female elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). Conceptually, our approach parallels a multistate version of the Barker/robust design in that it combines robust design capture data collected during discrete breeding seasons with observations made at other times of the year. A substantial advantage of our approach is that the nonbreeder state became "observable" when multiple data sources were analyzed together. This allowed us to test for the existence of state-dependent survival (with some support found for lower survival in breeders compared to nonbreeders), and to estimate annual breeding transitions to and from the nonbreeder state with greater precision (where current breeders tended to have higher future breeding probabilities than nonbreeders). We used program E-SURGE (2.1.2) to fit the multievent-robust design models, with uncertainty in breeding state assignment (breeder, nonbreeder) being incorporated via a hidden Markov process. This flexible modeling approach can easily be adapted to suit sampling designs from numerous species which may be encountered during and outside of discrete breeding seasons.
Published: 2019

24. Female Seals that Breed Young Also Enjoy a Slower Rate of Aging

Author: Marthán N Bester, W. Chris Oosthuizen, Roger Pradel, P J Nico de Bruyn, Guillaume Péron, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Department of Zoology and Entomology [Pretoria], University of Pretoria [South Africa], Mammal Research Institute - Department Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria (UPSpace), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 05 social sciences, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, 050301 education, General Medicine, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 0503 education, 01 natural sciences, Breed, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Demography
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2021

25. Efficient spatial multi-state capture-recapture model to study natal dispersal: An application to the Alpine marmot

Author: Mariona Ferrandiz-Rovira, Dominique Allainé, Pierre Dupont, Roger Pradel, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Marmota marmota, Male, Population, multi-state capture-recapture, Marmot, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Mark and recapture, 03 medical and health sciences, Animals, Computer Simulation, education, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 030304 developmental biology, 0303 health sciences, education.field_of_study, biology, Multi state, Ecology, dispersal kernel, biology.organism_classification, spatial capture-recapture, sex-specific dispersal, Marmota, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Biological dispersal, Animal Science and Zoology, Philopatry, Mammal, Female, Bayesian modelling
Abstract: Studying natal dispersal in natural populations using capture-recapture data is challenging as an unknown proportion of individuals leaves the study area when dispersing and are never recaptured. Most dispersal (and survival) estimates from capture-recapture studies are thus biased and only reflect what happens within the study area, not the population. Here, we elaborate on recent methodological advances to build a spatially-explicit multi-state capture-recapture model to study natal dispersal in a territorial mammal while accounting for imperfect detection and movement in and out of the study area. We validate our model using a simulation study where we compare it to a non-spatial multi-state capture-recapture model. We then apply it to a long-term individual-based dataset on Alpine marmot (Marmota marmota). Our model was able to accurately estimate natal dispersal and survival probabilities, as well as mean dispersal distance for a large range of dispersal patterns. By contrast, the non-spatial multi-state estimates underestimated both survival and natal dispersal even for short dispersal distances relative to the study area size. We discuss the application of our approach to other species and monitoring set-ups. We estimated higher inheritance probabilities of female Alpine marmots, which suggests higher levels of philopatry, although the probability to become dominant after dispersal did not differ between sexes. Nonetheless, the lower survival of young adult males suggests higher costs of dispersal for males. We further discuss the implications of our findings in light of the life-history of the species.
Published: 2021

26. Sex-specific costs of reproduction on survival in a long-lived seabird

Author: Raül Ramos, Jacob González-Solís, Marta Cruz-Flores, Roger Pradel, Joël Bried, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Male, media_common.quotation_subject, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Predation, Life history theory, Birds, Reproducció, biology.animal, Ocells marins, Animals, 14. Life underwater, Life history, Atlantic Ocean, Bulwer's petrel, Azores, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, media_common, Ecology, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Reproduction, Sea birds, Capture mark recapture, Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous), Sex specific, Spain, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Female, Population Ecology, Seabird, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Abstract: Costs of reproduction on survival have captured the attention of researchers since life history theory was formulated. Adults of long-lived species may increase survival by reducing their breeding effort or even skipping reproduction. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the costs of current reproduction on survival and whether skipping reproduction increases adult survival in a long-lived seabird. We used capture–mark–recapture data (1450 encounters) from two populations of Bulwer's petrel ( Bulweria bulwerii ), breeding in the Azores and Canary Islands, North Atlantic Ocean. Using a multi-event model with two different breeding statuses (breeders versus non-breeders), we calculated probabilities of survival and of transitions between breeding statuses, evaluating potential differences between sexes. Females had lower survival probabilities than males, independent of their breeding status. When considering breeding status, breeding females had lower survival probabilities than non-breeding females, suggesting costs of reproduction on survival. Breeding males had higher survival probabilities than non-breeding males, suggesting that males do not incur costs of reproduction on survival and that only the highest quality males have access to breeding. The highest and the lowest probabilities of skipping reproduction were found in breeding males from the Azores and in breeding males from the Canary Islands, respectively. Intermediate values were observed in the females from both populations. This result is probably due to differences in the external factors affecting both populations, essentially predation pressure and competition. The existence of sex-specific costs of reproduction on survival in several populations of this long-lived species may have important implications for species population dynamics.
Published: 2021

27. When to depart from a stopover site? Time since arrival matters more than current weather conditions

Author: Bruno Bargain, Gaetan Guyot, Roger Pradel, Emmanuelle Cam, Sebastien Roques, and Pierre-Yves Henry
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 0303 health sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, biology, Environmental science, Physical geography, biology.organism_classification, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Sedge warbler, Body condition, 030304 developmental biology
Abstract: On the journey to wintering sites, migratory birds usually alternate between flights and stopovers where they rest and refuel. Migration strategies are assumed to differ according to season: a time-minimization pre-breeding migration strategy towards breeding locations, and an energy-minimization post-breeding migration strategy to wintering ones. The duration of flights and stopovers determines the energy requirements and the total duration of the journey. Since migrating birds actually spend most of the time at stopovers, selection to minimize the amount of energy or time spent on migration is very likely to operate on the effectiveness of stopover rest and refueling. Here we address the relative contribution of factors to departure decisions from stopover sites during the post-breeding migration in a long-distance migratory songbird. When capture probability is low it is impossible to assess the variation in body condition over the entire duration of the stopover. To get around this, we use Time Since Arrival (TSA) as a proxy for the changes in the state of individuals during the stopover. We propose that TSA is an integrative proxy for resting, feeding and fattening efficiency. We develop a capture-recapture model to address the relationship between departure probability, estimated TSA, and weather conditions. Using a 20-year dataset from sedge warblers, we show that TSA has a larger effect on departure probability than weather conditions. Low humidity and an increase in atmospheric pressure in the days preceding departure are associated with higher departure probability, but these effects are smaller than that of TSA.
Published: 2020

28. More than just refuelling: lengthy stopover and selection of departure weather by sandpipers prior to transoceanic and transcontinental flights

Author: Sebastien Roques, David B. Lank, Roger Pradel, Emmanuelle Cam, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Evolution et Diversité Biologique (EDB), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Department of Biological Sciences [Burnaby], Simon Fraser University (SFU.ca), Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Environnement Marin (LEMAR) (LEMAR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (IUEM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR-11-IDEX-0002,UNITI,Université Fédérale de Toulouse(2011), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, capture&#8211, stopover decisions, ACL, Bayesian analysis, 15. Life on land, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, barrier effect migration, 010605 ornithology, capture–recapture, Mark and recapture, Fishery, Geography, [SDV.BA.ZV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Animal biology/Vertebrate Zoology, population characteristics, recapture, Animal Science and Zoology, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Selection (genetic algorithm)
Abstract: International audience; The evolutionary and behavioural ecology of migratory birds has received much theoretical and empirical attention. We contribute to this field by contrasting the weather at departure and stopover durations of a long-distance migratory sandpiper prior to initiating lengthy transoceanic vs. transcontinental flights of potentially variable duration. Transoceanic flights provide few if any stopover options. We predicted that transoceanic migrants should therefore be more selective of energetically favourable weather at departure and have longer stopover durations prior to departing, using time as a surrogate for cumulative fuel acquisition, compared with transcontinental migrants. We used recent advances in capture–recapture modelling to quantify how weather conditions, length of stay, including estimated residence time prior to capture, and age class correlated with daily departure probabilities of Semipalmated Sandpipers Calidris pusilla at a coastal and an inland stopover site at comparable latitude. As expected, departure probabilities from both sites were higher with increasing strength of tailwinds, and the strength of this effect was larger for birds facing transoceanic vs. transcontinental flights. Cloud cover and temperature conditions at departure converged between sites at intermediate values from different background distributions. Stopover durations at both sites were substantially longer than needed if the birds were pursuing a simple tactic of arrive–fatten–leave at the stopover site. We infer that both sites provided high levels of both food and safety relative to other stages in the birds’ annual cycle, favouring lengthy stopovers and subsequent use of lengthy flights from both sites. Our study shows that recent advances of capture–recapture models can provide additional resolution to studies of the migration strategies of birds and refine our perspective on global patterns of migration routes and stopover decisions.
Published: 2020

29. Decrease in social cohesion in a colonial seabird under a perturbation regime

Author: Meritxell Genovart, Daniel Oro, Olivier Gimenez, Rémi Choquet, Albert Bertolero, Roger Pradel, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Conservation of Natural Resources, Databases, Factual, Population dynamics, Population, lcsh:Medicine, Colonialism, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Article, Charadriiformes, biology.animal, Animals, 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences, 050102 behavioral science & comparative psychology, Cooperative Behavior, 10. No inequality, education, lcsh:Science, Ecosystem, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, education.field_of_study, Multidisciplinary, Behavior, Animal, Geography, biology, Conservation biology, 05 social sciences, lcsh:R, Bayes Theorem, Larus audouinii, Interpersonal ties, Spain, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Regression Analysis, Philopatry, lcsh:Q, Seabird, Social psychology
Abstract: Este artículo contiene 9 páginas, 3 figuras, 1 tabla., Social interactions, through infuence on behavioural processes, can play an important role in populations’ resilience (i.e. ability to cope with perturbations). However little is known about the efects of perturbations on the strength of social cohesion in wild populations. Long-term associations between individuals may refect the existence of social cohesion for seizing the evolutionary advantages of social living. We explore the existence of social cohesion and its dynamics under perturbations by analysing long-term social associations, in a colonial seabird, the Audouin’s gull Larus audouinii, living in a site experiencing a shift to a perturbed regime. Our goals were namely (1) to uncover the occurrence of long-term social ties (i.e. associations) between individuals and (2) to examine whether the perturbation regime afected this form of social cohesion. We analysed a dataset of more than 3500 individuals from 25 years of monitoring by means of contingency tables and within the Social Network Analysis framework. We showed that associations between individuals are not only due to philopatry or random gregariousness but that there are social ties between individuals over the years. Furthermore, social cohesion decreased under the perturbation regime. We sustain that perturbations may lead not only to changes in individuals’ behaviour and ftness but also to a change in populations’ social cohesion. The consequences of decreasing social cohesion are still not well understood, but they can be critical for the population dynamics of social species., Funding came from the Spanish Ministry of Science (CGL2017-85210) and Grant PICS INTERACT n°07699 (2016, CSIC-CNRS). MG was partially supported by the European Union (MINOUW Project, H2020-634495).
Published: 2020

30. Using temporary emigration to inform movement behaviour of cave-dwelling invertebrates: a case study of a cave harvestman species

Author: Olivier Gimenez, Raluca I. Băncilă, Rémi Choquet, Roger Pradel, and Rodica Plăiaşu
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, Movement (music), 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Cave dwelling, Emigration, Cave, Insect Science, Invertebrate
Published: 2018

31. Testing determinants of the annual individual fitness: An overall mean mixture model for de‐lifing data

Author: Pierre Dupont, Aurélie Cohas, Roger Pradel, Dominique Allainé, Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Rennes (INSA Rennes), Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA), Evolution, adaptation et comportement, Département écologie évolutive [LBBE], Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558 (LBBE), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558 (LBBE), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 0301 basic medicine, linear modelling, multi-modal distributions, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Normal distribution, 03 medical and health sciences, evolution, Statistics, Econometrics, Mixture modelling, Mixture distribution, Biological sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, CNRS1, Ecological Modeling, Linear model, Variance (accounting), Mixture model, Regression, mixture modelling, fitness, 030104 developmental biology, ecology, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
Abstract: International audience; 1. The de-lifing method (Coulson et al., 2006, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences , 273 , 547), though very promising for studying ecologi - cal and evolutionary changes, has been scarcely used to identify factors influential on fitness. 2. Through simulations representative of a variety of iteroparous species, we estab - lish that a two-component normal mixture usually provides a much better repre - sentation of de-lifing data than the single normal distribution assumed in classical linear models. 3. To test determinants of the annual individual fitness, we propose the overall mean mixture model (O3M), a mixture model parameterised in terms of the overall mean of the mixture distribution. 4. We examine the gain in performance and accuracy when using the O3M over clas - sical linear models and bootstrap methods on simulated finite normal mixture dis - tributions for different regression shapes and variance structure, and apply it to a real dataset to study how the annual individual fitness varies with age in alpine marmots. 5. The O3M improves considerably the precision of the estimates and hence the power of the analysis. We discuss the adaptation of the O3M model to more com - plex distributions and advise on its use.
Published: 2017

32. Accounting for heterogeneity when estimating stopover duration, timing and population size of red knots along the Luannan Coast of Bohai Bay, China

Author: Theunis Piersma, Tamar Lok, Roger Pradel, Chris J. Hassell, Olivier Gimenez, Australasian Wader Studies Group, Department of Marine Ecology and Evolution, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Animal Ecology Group, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Studies (CEES), University of Groningen [Groningen], Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), and Piersma group
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, state-space model, migration, OF-FIT TESTS, 01 natural sciences, Mark and recapture, Duration (project management), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Original Research, MARK, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, Calidris canutus, 0303 health sciences, Bohai bay, Ecology, Population size, red knot, ARRIVAL, Jolly–Seber, Calidris, Geography, SURVIVAL, mark–recapture, CAPTURE-RECAPTURE MODELS, mark-recapture, Jolly-Seber, population size, stopover duration, food.ingredient, STRATEGIES, Accounting, 010603 evolutionary biology, state–space model, Special Feature Article, 03 medical and health sciences, food, lcsh:QH540-549.5, 14. Life underwater, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 030304 developmental biology, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Estimation, BIRDS, business.industry, 15. Life on land, Habitat destruction, Threatened species, lcsh:Ecology, heterogeneity, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business
Abstract: To successfully perform their long-distance migrations, migratory birds require sites along their migratory routes to rest and refuel. Monitoring the use of so-called stopover and staging sites provides insights into (a) the timing of migration and (b) the importance of a site for migratory bird populations. A recently developed Bayesian superpopulation model that integrates mark-recapture data and ring density data enabled the estimation of stopover timing, duration, and population size. Yet, this model did not account for heterogeneity in encounter (p) and staying (phi) probabilities. Here we extended the integrated superpopulation model by implementing finite mixtures to account for heterogeneity in p and phi. We used simulations and real data (from 2009-2016) on red knots Calidris canutus, mostly of the subspecies piersmai, staging in Bohai Bay, China, during spring migration to (a) show the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in encounter and staying probabilities to get unbiased estimates of stopover timing, duration, and numbers of migratory birds at staging sites and (b) get accurate stopover parameter estimates for a migratory bird species at a key staging site that is threatened by habitat destruction. Our simulations confirmed that heterogeneity in p affected stopover parameter estimates more than heterogeneity in phi, especially when most birds had low p. Bias was particularly severe when most birds had both low phi and p. Bias was largest for population size, intermediate for stopover duration and negligible for stopover timing. A total of 50,000-100,000 red knots were estimated to annually stop for 5-9 days in Bohai Bay between 10 and 30 May. This shows the key importance of this staging site for this declining species. There were no clear changes in stopover parameters over time, although stopover population size was substantially lower in 2016 than in preceding years. Our study shows the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in both encounter and staying probabilities for accurately estimating stopover duration and population size and provides an appropriate modeling framework.
Published: 2019

33. Transience, dispersal and survival rates in newt patchy populations

Author: Nadège, Perret, Roger, Pradel, Claude, Miaud, Odile, Grolet, and Pierre, Joly
Abstract: This work aims to illustrating how it is possible to measure different modalities of adult dispersal in two subdivided populations of the alpine newt (Triturus alpestris). Recent developments in capture-mark-recapture methods make it possible to estimate transience rates from individuals captured only once. In the context of subdivided newt populations, transience is assumed to express nomadic behaviour that contribute to breeding dispersal. Skeletochronology and recaptures within each pond system also made it possible to estimate emigration rates and local dispersal. Two subdivided populations of alpine newts were monitored over 4 and 5 years, respectively. Whereas population A is suspected to have been established for more than 100 years, population B was monitored when colonizing a newly created archipelago of ponds. Transience was detected in each population at similar rates (37% in population A and 35% in the population B). Annual apparent survival rates were estimated as 82% in population A vs. 33% in population B. Similarity of age structures between populations leads us to consider such low survival rates in population B as resulting from emigration. Emigration was thus negligible in population A and was estimated to reach 57·3% in population B. Conversely, high local dispersal (movements within a pond system) was detected in population A, but not in population B. Even though the causation of dispersal in newts (genetic polymorphism vs. phenotypic plasticity) remains unexplored, our study succeeded in identifying several dispersal components that could result from different selective pressures (habitat heterogeneity at different temporal scales). Experimental approaches are needed to investigate the causative bases of these traits.
Published: 2019

34. Winter extratropical cyclone influence on seabird survival: variation between and within common eider Somateria mollissima populations

Author: Kevin I. Hodges, Sébastien Descamps, Børge Moe, Roger Pradel, K. E. Erikstad, Stéphanie Jenouvrier, Sveinn Are Hanssen, Joël Bêty, H. G. Gilchrist, Loreleï Guéry, Geir Wing Gabrielsen, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), and Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Ecology, biology, Range (biology), 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, 15. Life on land, Aquatic Science, biology.organism_classification, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Subarctic climate, Eider, Geography, Arctic, 13. Climate action, biology.animal, Extratropical cyclone, Cyclone, Seabird, Tropical cyclone, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Abstract: Mid-latitude atmospheric variability is mainly driven by a type of cyclone, the extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) that have a primary role in determining local weather and its variation, inducing strong winds, precipitation, and temperature changes. ETCs have a broad range of intensities, from benign to extreme, and their paths, frequency and intensity may change with global warming. However, how ETCs, and cyclones in general, currently affect marine wildlife is poorly studied and remains substantially unexplored. Indeed, only few studies have examined the impact of tropical cyclones, another kind of cyclones, on the temporal variation of seabird survival and no study has explored the potential impact of ETCs, although the latters could be potential mechanisms behind some winter NAO-survival relationships highlighted in previous studies. A fortiori, very little has been done to study the potential heterogeneity within or between populations with different winter migratory tactics and undergoing different winter environmental conditions. We used capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data sets collected in two arctic (northern Canada and Svalbard) and one subarctic (northern Norway) populations of Common eider, Somateria mollissima, over periods of 19, 16 and 30 years, respectively and corresponding datasets of winter ETCs in each wintering area to explore their link with the temporal variation of adult annual survival. We found significant and negative correlations between ETC activity and eider survival but different mechanisms seemed to be involved among the studied populations and could explain part of observed winter NAO effects. The number of ETCs, extreme or not, was directly linked to survival in the Canadian population, whereas the wind speed of the strongest ETC impacted adult survival with time lags for the Svalbard and northern Norway eider populations. We suggest that climatic shelters found on the wintering grounds, such as fjords, could provide natural protection and partly explain inter-population heterogeneity.
Published: 2019

35. Consequences of past and present harvest management in a declining flyway population of common eiders Somateria mollissima

Author: Roger Pradel, Rune Skjold Tjørnløv, Thomas Kjær Christensen, Morten Frederiksen, Rémi Choquet, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), Department of Biological Sciences, Aarhus University, Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, prospective population scenario, demography, Population, multi-event model, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, CMR modeling, lcsh:QH540-549.5, Flyway, [SDV.BA.ZV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Animal biology/Vertebrate Zoology, population dynamics, Population effect, 14. Life underwater, multi‐event model, education, prospective population scenarios, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 030304 developmental biology, Nature and Landscape Conservation, 0303 health sciences, education.field_of_study, Ecology, CMR modelling, Population size, sex ratio, hunting bag statistics, Overexploitation, Population decline, lcsh:Ecology, Vital rates, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Sex ratio, Demography
Abstract: International audience; Harvested species population dynamics are shaped by the relative contribution of natural and harvest mortality. Natural mortality is usually not under management control, so managers must continuously adjust harvest rates to prevent overexploitation. Ideally, this requires regular assessment of the contribution of harvest to total mortality and how this affects population dynamics.To assess the impact of hunting mortality on the dynamics of the rapidly declining Baltic/Wadden Sea population of common eiders Somateria mollissima, we first estimated vital rates of ten study colonies over the period 1970-2015. By means of a multi-event capture-recovery model, we then used the cause of death of recovered individuals to estimate proportions of adult females that died due to hunting or other causes. Finally, we adopted a stochastic matrix population modeling approach based on simulations to investigate the effect of past and present harvest regulations on changes in flyway population size and composition.Results showed that even the complete ban on shooting females implemented in 2014 in Denmark, where most hunting takes place, was not enough to stop the population decline given current levels of natural female mortality. Despite continued hunting of males, our predictions suggest that the proportion of females will continue to decline unless natural mortality of the females is reduced.Although levels of natural mortality must decrease to halt the decline of this population, we advocate that the current hunting ban on females is maintained while further investigations of factors causing increased levels of natural mortality among females are undertaken. Synthesis and applications. At the flyway scale, continuous and accurate estimates of vital rates and the relative contribution of harvest versus other mortality causes are increasingly important as the population effect of adjusting harvest rates is most effectively evaluated within a model-based adaptive management framework.
Published: 2019

36. An integrated population model sheds light on the complex population dynamics of a unique colonial breeder

Author: Claire N. Spottiswoode, Res Altwegg, Dorine Y. M. Jansen, Rafael Mares, Claire Doutrelant, Rita Covas, Roger Pradel, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), Spottiswoode, Claire [0000-0003-3232-9559], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, capture-mark-recapture, education.field_of_study, demography, environmental forcing, Extinction probability, Ecology, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Population, Metapopulation, Biology, Fecundity, biology.organism_classification, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, arid zone bird, Extreme weather, Population model, 13. Climate action, integrated population model, Population growth, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, education, Sociable weaver, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Abstract: International audience; Climate models forecast increasing climatic variation and more extreme events, which could increase the variability in animal demographic rates. More variable demographic rates generally lead to lower population growth and can be detrimental to wild populations, especially if the particular demographic rates affected are those to which population growth is most sensitive. We investigated the population dynamics of a metapopulation of 25 colonies of a semi-arid bird species, the sociable weaver Philetairus socius, and how it was influenced by seasonal weather during 1993-2014. We constructed an integrated population model which estimated population sizes similar to observed population counts, and allowed us to estimate annual fecundity and recruitment. Variance in fecundity contributed most to variance in population growth, which showed no trend over time. No weather variables explained overall demographic variation at the population level. However, a separate analysis of the largest colony showed a clear decline with a high extinction probability (0.05 to 0.33) within 5 years after the study period. In this colony, juvenile survival was lower when summers were hot, and adult survival was lower when winters were cold. Rainfall was also negatively correlated with adult survival. These weather effects could be due to increased physiological demands of thermoregulation and rainfall-induced breeding activity. Our results suggest that the dynamics of the population on the whole are buffered against current weather variation, as individual colonies apparently react in different ways. However, if more and increasingly extreme weather events synchronize colony dynamics, they are likely to have negative effects.
Published: 2019

37. Assessing heterogeneity in transition propensity in multistate capture-recapture data

Author: Anita Jeyam, Rachel S. McCrea, Roger Pradel, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), University of Kent [Canterbury], Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, and Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Statistics and Probability, Goodness of fit, education.field_of_study, [SHS.SOCIO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Sociology, [SDV.NEU.PC]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Neurons and Cognition [q-bio.NC]/Psychology and behavior, Computer science, Homogeneity (statistics), Markovian transitions, Population, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Mark and recapture, 010104 statistics & probability, [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST], Econometrics, QA276, 0101 mathematics, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, education, Diagnostics, [STAT.ME]Statistics [stat]/Methodology [stat.ME], ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: Summary Multistate capture–recapture models are a useful tool to help to understand the dynamics of movement within discrete capture–recapture data. The standard multistate capture–recapture model, however, relies on assumptions of homogeneity within the population with respect to survival, capture and transition probabilities. There are many ways in which this model can be generalized so some guidance on what is really needed is highly desirable. Within the paper we derive a new test that can detect heterogeneity in transition propensity and show its good power by using simulation and application to a Canada goose data set. We also demonstrate that existing tests which have traditionally been used to diagnose memory are in fact sensitive to other forms of transition heterogeneity and we propose modified tests which can distinguish between memory and other forms of transition heterogeneity.
Published: 2019

38. Individual heterogeneity in life‐history trade‐offs with age at first reproduction in capital breeding elephant seals

Author: Marthán N Bester, Res Altwegg, W. Chris Oosthuizen, Roger Pradel, Marie Nevoux, Martin Postma, P J Nico de Bruyn, Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria [South Africa], Kirstenbosch Research Centre, South African National Biodiversity Institute, Écologie et santé des écosystèmes (ESE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), University of Cape Town, Dept Stat Sci, Ctr Stat Ecol Environm & Conservat, Rondebosch, Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), University of Pretoria, Mammal Res Inst, Dept Zool & Entomol, Hatfield, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Offspring, media_common.quotation_subject, Population, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, cost of reproduction, individual quality, Seasonal breeder, Life history, mixture models, education, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, media_common, hidden heterogeneity, education.field_of_study, Individual heterogeneity, recruitment age, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Trade offs, Capital (economics), Reproduction, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Demography
Abstract: International audience; ecruitment age plays a key role in life-history evolution. Because individuals allocate limited resources among competing life-history functions, theory predicts trade-offs between current reproduction and future growth, survival and/or reproduction. Reproductive costs tend to vary with recruitment age, but may also be overridden by fixed individual differences leading to persistent demographic heterogeneity and positive covariation among demographic traits at the population level. We tested for evidence of intra- and inter-generational trade-offs and individual heterogeneity relating to age at first reproduction using three decades of detailed individual life-history data of 6,439 capital breeding female southern elephant seals. Contrary to the predictions from trade-off hypotheses, we found that recruitment at an early age was associated with higher population level survival and subsequent breeding probabilities. Nonetheless, a survival cost of first reproduction was evident at the population level, as first-time breeders always had lower survival probabilities than prebreeders and experienced breeders of the same age. However, models accounting for hidden persistent demographic heterogeneity revealed that the trade-off between first reproduction and survival was only expressed in "low quality" individuals, comprising 35% of the population. The short-term somatic costs associated with breeding at an early age had no effect on the ability of females to allocate resources to offspring in the next breeding season. Our results provide strong evidence for individual heterogeneity in the life-history trajectories of female elephant seals. By explicitly modeling hidden persistent demographic heterogeneity we show that individual heterogeneity governs the expression of trade-offs with first reproduction in elephant seals.
Published: 2019

39. Covariate and multinomial: Accounting for distance in movement in capture–recapture analyses

Author: Joël Bêty, Lauriane Rouan, Albert Fernández-Chacón, Sébastien Descamps, Loreleï Guéry, Roger Pradel, Grant Gilchrist, Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR), Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (UMR AGAP), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Norwegian Polar Institute, Joint Research Unit for Biodiversity (UO, CSIC, PA), Universidad de Oviedo, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Universidad de Oviedo [Oviedo], Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Analyse de covariance, transformations, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, Matrix (mathematics), [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST], Statistics, Covariate, variance–covariance matrix, Dynamique des populations, Statistics::Methodology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Original Research, 030304 developmental biology, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Mathematics, 0303 health sciences, link function, multinomial logit, Ecology, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, Analyse de données, L60 - Taxonomie et géographie animales, Variance (accounting), Covariance, dependent estimates, Delta method, covariate, Modélisation, Écologie animale, Multinomial distribution, P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Raw data, Focus (optics)
Abstract: International audience; Many biological quantities cannot be measured directly but rather need to be estimated from models. Estimates from models are statistical objects with variance and, when derived simultaneously, covariance. It is well known that their variance–covariance (VC) matrix must be considered in subsequent analyses. Although it is always preferable to carry out the proposed analyses on the raw data themselves, a two‐step approach cannot always be avoided. This situation arises when the parameters of a multinomial must be regressed against a covariate. The Delta method is an appropriate and frequently recommended way of deriving variance approximations of transformed and correlated variables. Implementing the Delta method is not trivial, and there is a lack of a detailed information on the procedure in the literature for complex situations such as those involved in constraining the parameters of a multinomial distribution. This paper proposes a how‐to guide for calculating the correct VC matrices of dependant estimates involved in multinomial distributions and how to use them for testing the effects of covariates in post hoc analyses when the integration of these analyses directly into a model is not possible. For illustrative purpose, we focus on variables calculated in capture–recapture models, but the same procedure can be applied to all analyses dealing with correlated estimates with multinomial distribution and their variances and covariances.
Published: 2019

40. Responses of orchids to habitat change in Corsica over 27 years

Author: Hélène Vogt-Schilb, Alain Delage, Roger Pradel, Laetitia Hugot, Franck Richard, Bertrand Schatz, Philippe Geniez, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), National Botanic Conservatory of Corsica, and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Orchid Biology, Biodiversity, Plant Science, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Population density, Abundance (ecology), skin and connective tissue diseases, Orchidaceae, Endemism, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Ecosystem, CNRS1, Ecology, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, fungi, 15. Life on land, biology.organism_classification, Habitat, Local extinction, sense organs, France, Species richness, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
Abstract: Background and aims Orchids are known to be particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their narrow ranges of secondary successional habitats. Lack of data at the community level limits our ability to evaluate how traits of different species influence their responses to habitat change. Here, we used a diachronic survey of Mediterranean orchid communities in Corsica to examine this question. Methods Using data from two field surveys conducted 27 years apart (1982-84 and 2009-11) at the same 45 sites in Corsica, we evaluated the impact of increase in woody plant cover (WPC) on (i) the richness and composition and (ii) the local extinction/colonization dynamics of orchids. We applied a Bayesian multispecies site-occupancy model to each of the 36 orchid species recorded at these sites to estimate the detection probability of each species, enabling us to account for under-detection in estimating their dynamics. Key results Between 1982 and 2011, WPC changed at 82·3 % of sites (increasing at 75·6 %, decreasing at 6·7 %). Despite marked changes in composition of orchid communities at the local scale, no significant change was detected in species richness at the regional scale. Canopy closure affected the probability of new colonization of sites, but had no significant influence on the probability of local extinction. However, the abundance of shade-intolerant species declined more sharply than that of shade-requiring species. Among orchid species, the detection probability was significantly and positively correlated with population density and plant height. Conclusions This study reveals contrasted dynamics of orchid communities between local and regional scales in Corsica. Although high turnover in communities was found at the local scale, regional species richness was maintained despite major land-use changes. Conserving landscape mosaics could provide locally suitable habitats for orchids of different ecologies to maintain diversity at larger spatial scales.
Published: 2016

41. Assessing the effect of density on population growth when modeling individual encounter data

Author: Simone Tenan, Giacomo Tavecchia, Roger Pradel, Daniel Oro, Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avançats, Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avancats (IMEDEA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Spain] (CSIC)-Universidad de las Islas Baleares (UIB)-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Spain] (CSIC)-Universidad de las Islas Baleares (UIB), Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avançats (CSIC-UIB), Institut Mediterrani d'estudis Avançats, Mallorca, Spain, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC)-Universidad de las Islas Baleares (UIB)-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC)-Universidad de las Islas Baleares (UIB), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Population dynamics, Population, Population Dynamics, Temporal symmetry model, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Mark and recapture, Econometrics, Rate of population change, Population growth, education, Population Growth, Gibbs variable selection, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Mathematics, Open population estimation, Population Density, education.field_of_study, Ecology, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Population size, Variance (accounting), Population ecology, Capture-recapture, Density dependence, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Vital rates, Audouin's Gull, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Pradel model, Audouin’s Gull
Abstract: Este artículo contiene 8 páginas, 2 figuras., The relative role of density-dependent and density-independent variation in vital rates and population size remains largely unsolved. Despite its importance to the theory and application of population ecology, and to conservation biology, quantifying the role and strength of density dependence is particularly challenging. We present a hierarchical formulation of the temporal symmetry approach, also known as the Pradel model, that permits estimation of the strength of density dependence from capture–mark–reencounter data. A measure of relative population size is built in the model and serves to detect density dependence directly on population growth rate. The model is also extended to account for temporal random variability in demographic rates, allowing estimation of the temporal variance of population growth rate unexplained by density dependence. We thus present a model-based approach that enable to test and quantify the effect of density-dependent and density-independent factors affecting population fluctuations in a single modeling framework. More generally, we use this modeling framework along with simulated and empirical data to show the value of including density dependence when modeling individual encounter data without the need for auxiliary data, Funds were partially provided by the Spanish Ministry of Economy (ref. CGL2013-42203-R and ref. CGL2017-85210-P). G. Tavecchia, R. Pradel and D. Oro were partly supported by a joint grant (PICS INTERACT, reference 272847) from CNRS in France and CSIC in Spain.
Published: 2018

42. Consequences of past and present harvest management in a declining flyway population of common eiders

Author: Rune S, Tjørnløv, Roger, Pradel, Rémi, Choquet, Thomas Kjær, Christensen, and Morten, Frederiksen
Subjects: demography, prospective population scenario, CMR modeling, population dynamics, multi‐event model, sex ratio, Original Research, hunting bag statistics
Abstract: Harvested species population dynamics are shaped by the relative contribution of natural and harvest mortality. Natural mortality is usually not under management control, so managers must continuously adjust harvest rates to prevent overexploitation. Ideally, this requires regular assessment of the contribution of harvest to total mortality and how this affects population dynamics.To assess the impact of hunting mortality on the dynamics of the rapidly declining Baltic/Wadden Sea population of common eiders Somateria mollissima, we first estimated vital rates of ten study colonies over the period 1970–2015. By means of a multi‐event capture–recovery model, we then used the cause of death of recovered individuals to estimate proportions of adult females that died due to hunting or other causes. Finally, we adopted a stochastic matrix population modeling approach based on simulations to investigate the effect of past and present harvest regulations on changes in flyway population size and composition.Results showed that even the complete ban on shooting females implemented in 2014 in Denmark, where most hunting takes place, was not enough to stop the population decline given current levels of natural female mortality. Despite continued hunting of males, our predictions suggest that the proportion of females will continue to decline unless natural mortality of the females is reduced.Although levels of natural mortality must decrease to halt the decline of this population, we advocate that the current hunting ban on females is maintained while further investigations of factors causing increased levels of natural mortality among females are undertaken. Synthesis and applications. At the flyway scale, continuous and accurate estimates of vital rates and the relative contribution of harvest versus other mortality causes are increasingly important as the population effect of adjusting harvest rates is most effectively evaluated within a model‐based adaptive management framework., We used multi‐event and stochastic population modeling to assess the past and present effect of hunting in a declining flyway population of common eiders. Our results indicate that even a ban on shooting female eiders is not enough to halt the current decline, because of high levels of natural mortality among the eider females.
Published: 2018

43. R2ucare: An R package to perform goodness-of-fit tests for capture-recapture models

Author: Olivier Gimenez, Rémi Choquet, Jean-Dominique Lebreton, Roger Pradel, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), Centre d'études biologiques de Chizé (CEBC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Computer science, Ecology (disciplines), media_common.quotation_subject, Inference, Machine learning, computer.software_genre, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Model validation, Mark and recapture, Goodness of fit, Quality (business), Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, media_common, business.industry, Ecological Modeling, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, in press, Capture mark recapture, Statistical model, R package, Artificial intelligence, Data mining, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business, computer
Abstract: Assessing the quality of fit of a statistical model to data is a necessary step for conducting safe inference. We introduce R2ucare, an R package to perform goodness-of-fit tests for open single- and multi-state capture-recapture models. R2ucare also has various functions to manipulate capture-recapture data. We remind the basics and provide guidelines to navigate towards testing the fit of capture-recapture models. We demonstrate the functionality of R2ucare through its application to real data.
Published: 2018

44. A general method for estimating seed dormancy and colonisation in annual plants from the observation of existing flora

Author: Nathalie Peyrard, Pierre-Olivier Cheptou, Sebastian Le Coz, Matthieu Pluntz, Roger Pradel, Rémi Choquet, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Unité de Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées de Toulouse (MIAT INRA), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Projet AGROBIOSE ANR-0001, Unité de Biométrie et Intelligence Artificielle (UBIA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, agroecology, Flora, colonisation, Plant Weeds, Metapopulation, Germination, METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Hidden Markov Model, seed bank, DESIGN, DISPERSAL, [INFO]Computer Science [cs], FIELD, SPATIAL DYNAMICS, [MATH]Mathematics [math], Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, SCALE, CNRS1, Adaptive strategy, Ecology, plants, Seed dormancy, metapopulation, food and beverages, 15. Life on land, Plant Dormancy, EVOLUTION, Colonisation, Plant ecology, SIZE, Seeds, Dormancy, France, Annual plant, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: International audience; In plant ecology, characterising colonisation and extinction in plant metapopulations is challeng- ing due to the non-detectable seed bank that allows plants to emerge after several years of absence. In this study, we used a Hidden Markov Model to characterise seed dormancy, colonisa- tion and germination solely from the presence – absence of standing flora. Applying the model to data from a long-term survey of 38 annual weeds across France, we identified three homogeneous functional groups: (1) species persisting preferentially through spatial colonisation, (2) species per- sisting preferentially through seed dormancy and (3) a mix of both strategies. These groups are consistent with existing ecological knowledge, demonstrating that ecologically meaningful parame- ters can be estimated from simple presence – absence observations. These results indicate that such studies could contribute to the design of weed management strategies. They also open the possibil- ity of testing life-history theories such as the dormancy/colonisation trade-off in natura .
Published: 2018

45. A test of positive association for detecting heterogeneity in capture for capture-recapture data

Author: Thomas Bregnballe, Anita Jeyam, Roger Pradel, Rachel S. McCrea, Morten Frederiksen, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Department of Arctic Environment [Rockilde], Aarhus University [Aarhus]-National Environmental Research Institute [Danmark] (NERI), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), National Environmental Research Institute [Danmark] (NERI)-Aarhus University [Aarhus], Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), and Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Statistics and Probability, Computer science, Goodness-of-fit, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Article, Mark and recapture, 010104 statistics & probability, Goodness of fit, Statistics, Econometrics, Thalasseus sandvicensis, QA276, Goodman–Kruskal’s gamma, 0101 mathematics, Cormack–Jolly–Seber model, Association (psychology), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, General Environmental Science, Applied Mathematics, Sampling (statistics), Diagnostic test, Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous), Outcome (probability), Test (assessment), Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Abstract: The Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model assumes that all marked animals have equal recapture probabilities at each sampling occasion, but heterogeneity in capture often occurs and should be taken into account to avoid biases in parameter estimates. Although diagnostic tests are generally used to detect trap-dependence or transience and assess the overall fit of the model, heterogeneity in capture is not routinely tested for. In order to detect and identify this phenomenon in a CJS framework, we propose a test of positive association between previous and future encounters using Goodman–Kruskal’s gamma. This test is based solely on the raw capture histories and makes no assumption on model structure. The development of the test is motivated by a dataset of Sandwich terns (Thalasseus sandvicensis), and we use the test to formally show that they exhibit heterogeneity in capture. We use simulation to assess the performance of the test in the detection of heterogeneity in capture, compared to existing and corrected diagnostic goodness-of-fit tests, Leslie’s test of equal catchability and Carothers’ extension of the Leslie test. The test of positive association is easy to use and produces good results, demonstrating high power to detect heterogeneity in capture. We recommend using this new test prior to model fitting as the outcome will guide the model-building process and help draw more accurate biological conclusions. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary materials for this article are available at 10.1007/s13253-017-0315-4.
Published: 2018

46. Prediction in ecology: promises, obstacles and clarifications

Author: Sonia Kéfi, Roger Pradel, Audrey Coreau, Virginie Maris, Vincent Devictor, Philippe Huneman, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), Institut d'Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techniques (IHPST), Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département d'Etudes Cognitives - ENS Paris (DEC), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), AgroParisTech, Centre Alexandre Koyré - Centre de Recherche en Histoire des Sciences et des Techniques (CAK-CRHST), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Cité des Sciences et de l'Industrie-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS), Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Département d'Etudes Cognitives - ENS Paris (DEC), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Ecology, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Ecology (disciplines), Context (language use), Scientific literature, Biology, Ecological systems theory, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, Order (exchange), Anticipation (artificial intelligence), Predictive power, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Futures contract, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Abstract: International audience; In the current context of global change and a biodiversity crisis, there are increasing demands for greater predictive power in ecology, in both the scientific literature and at the science–policy interface. The implicit assumption is that this will increase knowledge and, in turn, lead to better decision‐making. However, the justification for this assumption remains uncertain, not least because the definition of ‘prediction’ is unclear. We propose that two types of prediction should be distinguished: corroboratory‐prediction is linked to the validation of theories; and anticipatory‐prediction is linked to the description of possible futures. We then discuss four families of obstacles to prediction, linked to the specific features of ecosystems: 1) they are historical entities, 2) they are complex, 3) their dynamics are stochastic, and 4) they are influenced by socio‐economic drivers. A naïve understanding of ecological science suggests that the two types of predictions are simply two phases in a sequence in which scientists first improve their knowledge of ecological systems via corroboratory‐predictions, and then apply this knowledge in order to forecast future states of ecosystems via anticipatory‐predictions in order to help policy makers taking decisions. This sequence is however not straightforward, partly because corroboration and anticipation are not affected by the obstacles to prediction in the same way. We thus invite to reconsider the role of ecological prediction as a tool in a deliberative model of decision‐making rather than as external scientific information aimed at enlightening the political process. Doing so would be beneficial for both the policy‐relevance of anticipatory‐prediction and the theoretical‐relevance of corroboratory‐prediction.
Published: 2018

47. Dermal mycobacteriosis and warming sea surface temperatures are associated with elevated mortality of striped bass in Chesapeake Bay

Author: Roger Pradel, John M. Hoenig, Maya L. Groner, Wolfgang K. Vogelbein, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Rémi Choquet, David T. Gauthier, Centre for Veterinary Epidemiological Research, University of Prince Edward Island, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), and Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Biogeochemical cycle, food.ingredient, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Population, Prevalence, Disease, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Bass (fish), food, 14. Life underwater, education, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Original Research, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Nature and Landscape Conservation, CNRS1, E‐SURGE, education.field_of_study, geography, disease, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, Estuary, climate change, disease, epidemiology, E-SURGE, incidence, mortality, mortality, Fishery, Sea surface temperature, climate change, Habitat, 13. Climate action, incidence, epidemiology, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, E-SURGE
Abstract: Temperature is hypothesized to alter disease dynamics, particularly when species are living at or near their thermal limits. When disease occurs in marine systems, this can go undetected, particularly if the disease is chronic and progresses slowly. As a result, population‐level impacts of diseases can be grossly underestimated. Complex migratory patterns, stochasticity in recruitment, and data and knowledge gaps can hinder collection and analysis of data on marine diseases. New tools enabling quantification of disease impacts in marine environments include coupled biogeochemical hydrodynamic models (to hindcast key environmental data), and multievent, multistate mark–recapture (MMSMR) (to quantify the effects of environmental conditions on disease processes and assess population‐level impacts). We used MMSMR to quantify disease processes and population impacts in an estuarine population of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in Chesapeake Bay from 2005 to 2013. Our results supported the hypothesis that mycobacteriosis is chronic, progressive, and, frequently, lethal. Yearly disease incidence in fish age three and above was 89%, suggesting that this disease impacts nearly every adult striped bass. Mortality of diseased fish was high, particularly in severe cases, where it approached 80% in typical years. Severely diseased fish also had a 10‐fold higher catchability than healthy fish, which could bias estimates of disease prevalence. For both healthy and diseased fish, mortality increased with the modeled average summer sea surface temperature (SST) at the mouth of the Rappahannock River; in warmer summers (average SST ≥ 29°C), a cohort is predicted to experience >90% mortality in 1 year. Regression of disease signs in mildly and moderately diseased fish was
Published: 2018

48. REVIEW: Predictive ecology in a changing world

Author: Gael J. Kergoat, Laurence Meslin, Luc Doyen, Dominique Joly, Romain Julliard, Philippe Jarne, Michel Loreau, Frankl M. Schurr, Nicolas Mouquet, Roger Pradel, Olivier Gimenez, Hélène Morlon, Wilfried Thuiller, Sonia Kéfi, Yvan Lagadeuc, Xavier Morin, Denis Faure, Damien Eveillard, Vincent Devictor, Gilles Pinay, Franck Jabot, Eric Garnier, Anne Duputié, Serge Morand, Philippe Huneman, Sandra Lavorel, Line Le Gall, MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation ( UMR MARBEC ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement ( IRD ) -Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer ( IFREMER ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes] ( ECOBIO ), Université de Rennes 1 ( UR1 ), Université de Rennes ( UNIV-RENNES ) -Université de Rennes ( UNIV-RENNES ) -INEE-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes ( OSUR ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier ( ISEM ), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ) -Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), inconnu temporaire UPEMLV, Inconnu, Évolution, Écologie et Paléontologie (Evo-Eco-Paleo) - UMR 8198 ( Evo-Eco-Paléo ), Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Laboratoire d'Informatique de Nantes Atlantique ( LINA ), Mines Nantes ( Mines Nantes ) -Université de Nantes ( UN ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Institut de Biologie Intégrative de la Cellule ( I2BC ), Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 ( UP11 ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), ONERA - The French Aerospace Lab ( Meudon ), ONERA, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive ( CEFE ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement ( IRD [France-Sud] ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ) -Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] ( INRA Montpellier ) -École pratique des hautes études ( EPHE ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 ( UM3 ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Institut d'Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techniques ( IHPST ), Université Panthéon-Sorbonne ( UP1 ) -Département d'Etudes Cognitives - ENS Paris ( DEC ), École normale supérieure - Paris ( ENS Paris ) -École normale supérieure - Paris ( ENS Paris ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Laboratoire d'ingénierie pour les systèmes complexes ( UR LISC ), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture ( IRSTEA ), Laboratoire Evolution, Génomes, Comportement, Ecologie, CNRS/Université Paris-Sud UMR9191, IRD UMR247, Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 ( UP11 ), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle ( MNHN ), Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations ( CBGP ), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] ( INRA Montpellier ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ) -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement ( IRD [France-Sud] ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine ( LECA ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université Savoie Mont Blanc ( USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] ) -Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 ( UJF ) -Université Grenoble Alpes ( UGA ), Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle ( MNHN ), Institut de biologie de l'ENS Paris (UMR 8197/1024) ( IBENS ), Département de Biologie - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris ( ENS Paris ) -École normale supérieure - Paris ( ENS Paris ) -Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), UR Riverly, Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l'Environnement et l'Agriculture ( IRSTEA ), Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire des Aliments ( AFSSA ), AFSSA, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS )
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology (disciplines), Big data, Context (language use), Biology, Ecological systems theory, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, law.invention, law, Order (exchange), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Ecology, business.industry, L70 - Sciences et hygiène vétérinaires - Considérations générales, 15. Life on land, Open data, 13. Climate action, Anticipation (artificial intelligence), CLARITY, P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières, business
Abstract: 1. In a rapidly changing world, ecology has the potential to move from empirical and conceptual stages to application and management issues. It is now possible to make large-scale predictions up to continental or global scales, ranging from the future distribution of biological diversity to changes in ecosystem functioning and services. With these recent developments, ecology has a historical opportunity to become a major actor in the development of a sustainable human society. With this opportunity, however, also comes an important responsibility in developing appropriate predictive models, correctly interpreting their outcomes and communicating their limitations. There is also a danger that predictions grow faster than our understanding of ecological systems, resulting in a gap between the scientists generating the predictions and stakeholders using them (conservation biologists, environmental managers, journalists, policymakers). 2. Here, we use the context provided by the current surge of ecological predictions on the future of biodiversity to clarify what prediction means, and to pinpoint the challenges that should be addressed in order to improve predictive ecological models and the way they are understood and used. 3. Synthesis and applications. Ecologists face several challenges to ensure the healthy development of an operational predictive ecological science: (i) clarity on the distinction between explanatory and anticipatory predictions; (ii) developing new theories at the interface between explanatory and anticipatory predictions; (iii) open data to test and validate predictions; (iv) making predictions operational; and (v) developing a genuine ethics of prediction.
Published: 2015

49. Absence of difference in survival between two distant breeding sites of greater snow geese

Author: Josée Lefebvre, Roger Pradel, Guillaume Souchay, and Gilles Gauthier
Subjects: education.field_of_study, Ecology, Range (biology), Population, Wildlife, Biology, Snow, biology.organism_classification, Trait, Waterfowl, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Spatial variability, education, Survival rate, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Nature and Landscape Conservation, General Environmental Science
Abstract: \textcopyright 2015 The Wildlife Society. \textcopyright The Wildlife Society, 2015.Adaptive management of harvested waterfowl requires accurate estimations of demographic parameters. These must also be representative of the targeted population. In the greater snow goose, all demographic parameters so far have been estimated from long-term banding conducted at a single nesting colony in the Arctic, Bylot Island, where 15% of the population breeds. We used data from a second banding program conducted on Ellesmere Island, 800km north of Bylot Island and near the northern limit of the breeding range, to compare adult survival between these 2 breeding sites over the period 2007-2011. This allowed us to determine the representativeness of demographic parameters estimated from the Bylot colony. We used a multi-event capture-recapture model combining recaptures, resightings of neckbanded birds, and recoveries on a seasonal basis, which allowed us to test specifically for differences in survival during the migration periods. Despite differences in migration distance (20% longer for Ellesmere Island) and environmental conditions, survival rate of birds from these 2 breeding sites were similar in all seasons. Annual survival ranged from 0.72 to 0.79. This apparent absence of a cost of migration on survival may be explained by the canalization hypothesis: variance in adult survival of the greater snow goose, a long-lived species, caused by environmental factors may have been reduced because of selection pressure on this trait, which is closely linked to fitness. The absence of spatial variation in adult survival suggests that the extrapolation of survival parameters estimated from the Bylot Island colony to the entire population may be valid.
Published: 2015

50. Analysing movement behaviour and dynamic space-use strategies among habitats using multi-event capture-recapture modelling

Author: Pierre Joly, Aurélien Besnard, Hugo Cayuela, Roger Pradel, Laboratoire d'Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés (LEHNA), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État (ENTPE), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), Franche-Comté Électronique Mécanique, Thermique et Optique - Sciences et Technologies (UMR 6174) (FEMTO-ST), Université de Franche-Comté (UFC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Mécanique et des Microtechniques (ENSMM)-Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard (UTBM), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État (ENTPE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard (UTBM)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Mécanique et des Microtechniques (ENSMM)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC), and Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Movement (music), Ecology, Range (biology), 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Ecological Modeling, Ecology (disciplines), Foraging, habitat selection, multi-event model, 15. Life on land, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, capture–recapture, Mark and recapture, Habitat, Biological dispersal, amphibian, movement, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Temporal scales, dispersal, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Abstract: 1.The environment of most species is heterogeneous at different spatial and temporal scales; this heterogeneity can have a direct effect on various components of fitness. As a consequence, individual space-use and movement strategies are central issues in ecology and conservation and receive considerable attention from researchers. 2.In the last 30 years, this issue has led to the development of capture–recapture models that allow movement between sites to be quantified, while handling imperfect detection. For studies involving numerous recapture sites in which the emphasis is on dispersal or migration rather than movement between particular sites, Lagrange et al. recently proposed a parsimonious CR multi-event model that contrasts individuals that move and individuals that stay in place, irrespective of the sites involved. 3.In this study, we developed a generalized version of this model to allow survival probability and movement probability to differ for different types of habitat to which the individual sites may be assigned. We investigated the potential of this new parameterization by studying the movements of an amphibian, the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata), in a set of breeding and resting/foraging ponds. 4.Our capture-recapture multi-event model provides a highly flexible tool allowing users to model movements within and between several habitats. This approach can be potentially used to study movement behavior and space-use strategies of a wide range of taxa. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Published: 2017

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