Search

A conference contribution for the 1st Water-WISER Early Career Researcher Conference, Transdisciplinary Global Perspectives on Water and Waste Services, held at Loughborough University 21 - 23 June 2022.

The global food system contributes approximately one-quarter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with these dominated by the livestock sector. The projected increase in livestock demand is likely to undermine efforts to keep global average warming below a 2◦C target. A carbon tax is often proposed as the preferred demand-side mechanism for reduced meat consumption. Previous studies, however, suggest that while this could prove successful in reducing net global emissions, it may worsen nutritional standards in lowest-income nations. An alternative market mechanism which may simultaneously reduce GHG emissions and improve health at all income levels is a reduction in the price of meat substitute products (meat-free proteins with particular nutritional and aesthetic similarities to meat). Using a combined ecological and health modeling approach, we project the associated GHG savings and health benefits associated with a stepwise reduction in the price of meat substitute products. Utilizing food demand elasticities, we quantify the substitution of meat commodities across a range of social acceptability scenarios. Our results show that meat substitute products—integrated within a “flexitarian” approach (primarily vegetarian but occasionally eating meat and fish)—have a large potential for reducing GHG emissions (up to 583 MtCO2e per year) and improving nutritional outcomes (up to 52,700 premature deaths avoided per year). However, this capacity is strongly dependent on a combination of price reductions and improved social acceptability of this product group; therefore both will be essential.

The global food system is failing to meet nutritional needs, with growing concerns for health related to both under-, over-consumption and severe micronutrient deficiency. The 2nd Sustainable Development Goal (SDG2) targets the end of malnutrition in all forms by 2030. To address this challenge, the focus around food security and malnutrition must be broadened beyond the scope of sufficient energy intake to take full account of total nutrient supply and requirements. Here, for the first time, we have quantitatively mapped the global food system in terms of energy, protein, fat, essential amino acids, and micronutrients from “field-to-fork,” normalized to an equitable per capita availability metric. This framework allows for the evaluation of the sufficiency of nutrient supply, identifies the key hotspots within the global food supply chain which could be targeted for improved efficiency, and highlights the trade-offs which may arise in delivering a balanced nutritional system.

It is estimated that more than two billion people suffer from ‘hidden hunger’ (micronutrient malnutrition) globally, with nearly half living in India. Despite being highlighted as one the most cost-effective investments for human development, progress on addressing micronutrient deficiencies (MiND) has been slowing. The severe social, health, and economic costs of MiND in India should make it a top priority for domestic governance and international donors alike. This study, for the first time, maps food system pathways from crop production through to household-level food availability, for a range of key vitamins, minerals, and amino acids. Results suggest widespread (>80% total Indian population) risk of deficiencies in calcium, vitamin A, B12, folate, in addition to lysine limitation, with more localized deficiencies (

India has been perceived as a development enigma: Recent rates of economic growth have not been matched by similar rates in health and nutritional improvements. To meet the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG2) of achieving zero hunger by 2030, India faces a substantial challenge in meeting basic nutritional needs in addition to addressing population, environmental and dietary pressures. Here we have mapped-for the first time-the Indian food system from crop production to household-level availability across three key macronutrients categories of 'calories', 'digestible protein' and 'fat'. To better understand the potential of reduced food chain losses and improved crop yields to close future food deficits, scenario analysis was conducted to 2030 and 2050. Under India's current self-sufficiency model, our analysis indicates severe shortfalls in availability of all macronutrients across a large proportion (>60%) of the Indian population. The extent of projected shortfalls continues to grow such that, even in ambitious waste reduction and yield scenarios, enhanced domestic production alone will be inadequate in closing the nutrition supply gap. We suggest that to meet SDG2 India will need to take a combined approach of optimising domestic production and increasing its participation in global trade.

Recent increases in marine traffic in the Arctic have amplified the demand for reliable ice and marine environmental predictions. This article presents the verification of ice forecast skill from a new system implemented recently at the Canadian Meteorological Centre called the Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS). GIOPS provides daily global ice and ocean analyses and 10-day forecasts on a 1/4°-resolution grid. GIOPS includes a multivariate ocean data assimilation system that combines satellite observations of sea-level anomaly and sea-surface temperature (SST) together with in situ observations of temperature and salinity. Ice analyses are produced using a 3D-Var method that assimilates satellite observations from SSM/I and SSMIS together with manual analyses from the Canadian Ice Service. Analyses of total ice concentration are projected onto the thickness categories used in the ice model using spatially and temporally varying weighting functions derived from ice model tendencies. This method may reduce deleterious impacts on the ice thickness distribution when assimilating ice concentration, as it can directly modulate (and reverse) nonlinear processes such as ice deformation. An objective verification of sea ice forecasts is made using two methods: analysis-based error assessment focusing on the marginal ice zone, and a contingency table approach to evaluate ice extent as compared to an independent analysis. Together the methods demonstrate a consistent picture of skilful medium-range forecasts in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres as compared to persistence. Using the contingency table approach, GIOPS forecasts show a significant open-water bias during spring and summer. However, this bias depends on the choice of threshold used. Ice forecast skill is found to be highly sensitive to the assimilation of SST near the ice edge. Improved observational coverage in these areas (including salinity) would be extremely valuable for further improvement in ice forecast skill.