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Recent research has highlighted the valuable contributions that participatory processes contribute in developing system dynamics models of value chains with stakeholders. A new participatory process known as spatial group model building (SGMB) expands these insights, using maps and GIS concepts to improve the facilitation and modelling process. This practical note provides an overview of SGMB, its recent applications in informing development interventions, and proposed innovations to expand its use and dissemination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using market access to achieve developmental aims has long been held as a key tenet of global development policy. Using a case study approach based on interviews along and across the beef value chain between Namibia, Botswana, and Norway, this article addresses the question of whether market access to high-value markets for livestock products has developmental benefits. The costs and benefits of using market access for beef products as a developmental policy tool are identified and the key role played by international meat traders in both upgrading and rent capture discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant progress has been made in cereal production in Bangladesh due to an agricultural policy environment that prioritizes the productivity of staple crops over fruit and vegetables (F&V). However, many smallholder farmers remain poorly connected to markets, which may lead to a limited supply response of F&V that can reduce opportunities for sufficient intake in neglected, consumer-facing, smaller retail markets. To address this issue, aggregation schemes have been conceived that collect and transport F&Vs on behalf of multiple farmers. Given the volume of horticultural produce produced and the reliance on developed transport infrastructure, aggregation schemes tend to supply wholesale and urban markets rather than underdeveloped rural and isolated markets. To this end, we investigated how a particular aggregation intervention ('Loop') could potentially improve the distribution of F&V to smaller markets whilst improving farmer benefits. We used an innovative system dynamics modeling approach based on Loop's aggregation services in Jashore, Bangladesh, and to identify the potential trade-offs between consumer outcomes in retail markets and farmer benefits. We find that combining aggregation with a quota at the smaller market, transport subsidy, and current price growth does not result in trade-offs between consumer purchases and farmers'benefits. However, combining aggregation with current price growth can increase demand without losing farmers'benefits. The findings emphasize that standalone and multiple market-oriented interventions generate broader win-win benefits to promote inclusive food systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving inclusive value chain development is a challenging task due to the complex and dynamic nature of interconnected value chains and their social, economic, and ecological dimensions. While many policies and intervention options exist to upgrade value chains, there are fewer methods that can be used to understand and quantify the multidimensional impacts that value chain policies and interventions may have throughout the value chain. This paper addresses this methodological gap by employing a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach. SD models allow us to model and quantify the processes and relationships inherent in the value chain through simulations, serving as a policy laboratory for the empirical assessment of intervention options. An SD model of the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua was developed and tested through a participatory modeling process. Our research tested and evaluated the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of specific interventions and policies in the Matiguás dairy value chain with the goal of strengthening the competitiveness and inclusion of small- and medium-scale producers. These interventions centered on improving the feeding system, which was identified by stakeholders as the critical constraint to competitiveness. The policy analysis reveals that both improved pastures and increased use of concentrates raise producer milk productivity by 5% and 11%, respectively in the long run, but are also expensive strategies for smallholder producers, leading to a reduction in profits relative to the baseline by 1% and 3%, respectively. Consequently, policymakers should identify strategies that help to reduce concentrate costs and support producers with investments in improved pasture, while also promoting training in pasture management skills. Indeed, in the long-run, model results reveal that investment and training in pasture management results in a 30% and 35% increase in milk production during the wet and dry season, respectively. Simulation results further highlighted that intensifying the feeding system to improve cow milk yields is mainly profitable in the long term, and thus requires a longer-term perspective by policymakers. The model provides a deeper understanding of the complex and dynamic nature of the Matiguás dairy value chain and the interactions between markets, coordination aspects, biophysical phenomena, and income. The system dynamics approach to value chain analysis further addresses a major analytical shortcoming in value chain analysis and provides decision makers with an improved platform for planning and policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Certification programs have been employed in many agricultural products as a means to encourage and communicate compliance with standards associated with various attributes, such as organic, fair-trade, GMO free, and eco-friendly, among others. Such programs further seek to provide added value, through a price premium, to producers and supply chain actors associated with the label. In this paper, we review a number of global labeling and certification programs that could add value for coffee farms in India through the promotion of conservation and environmental protection. We provide results from a survey conducted on a sample of coffee farms in Coorg district, India, to assess their awareness and perceptions related toward certified coffee and environmental conservation in general. Survey results illustrate strong positive associations with the environment by coffee planters, particularly among certified and organic producers. However, price premiums for certified and organic coffee are relatively small. While the potential of conservation-oriented certification for coffee in Coorg could be relatively limited outside of a few individual-level niches, branding Coorg more generally as a conservation-oriented region could hold promise, leveraging and personalizing the uniqueness of the natural offerings from Coorg and tapping into burgeoning associations with place and region in India. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study investigates factors influencing both the use of conservation agriculture (CA) and the intensity of its uptake amongst 237 smallholders sampled in the Masvingo district of Zimbabwe. The intensity of uptake was measured using an index that accounted for the number of CA components used, their relative importance, and the rate and extent of their application. Previous studies ignore some or all of these important aspects of uptake. The determinants of use and intensity were identified using a double hurdle model. Although most smallholders applied the reduced tillage or crop rotation components of CA, few combined these practices with mulching. Farm size and experience with CA technology impacted positively on the current use of CA, while distance from town (market) and ownership of an ox-drawn plough reduced the intensity of its uptake. Sensitivity analysis showed that these results change when partial measures of CA uptake are used, emphasising the importance of establishing a comprehensive measure of intensity. Policy implications include a need for institutional change to improve smallholder access to cropland, more participatory approaches to agricultural extension, and more convenient access to farm inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The use of system dynamics tools can add valuable insights when identifying and evaluating priorities for pro-poor value chain upgrading. However, to better understand the complex systems in agricultural value chains and to develop useful models, a participatory modelling process is important. This article highlights the group model building process of the dairy value chain in Matiguás, Nicaragua, one of a few examples of participatory model building in developing countries. The results confirm several benefits with participatory system dynamics modelling, including team learning, a greater understanding of the value of modelling, and a tool for decision-making and priority setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A complex set of factors affect the production and sale of livestock in Somaliland, including feed supply, diseases, and demand, among others. This study constructs a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the impacts of baseline dynamics and alternative value chain interventions to address inherent constraints. Findings indicate that Somaliland incurs high economic losses due to occasional animal export bans associated with Rift valley fever (RVF) outbreaks (up to 12% of GDP) and lack of pasture during droughts, given the lack of effort by producers to balance their flock sizes with stocking capacity. Under the baseline conditions, prospects for growth of the small ruminants' sector are poor as the stocking rate is centered and stagnated at about 2.54 million TLUs, and a decline is projected in the long run. In contrast, the adoption of optimization of animal herd sizes in order to balance feed demand with supply could (ceteris-paribus) enhance productivity, boosting exports and domestic supply of slaughter animals and also lead to improved rangeland conditions, ultimately reversing the projected long-run erosion of stocking capacity. • The small ruminants' production and marketing sector, - which is the mainstay of the economy and livelihoods in Somaliland – entails a pretty complex value chain with livestock serving multiple functions for the pastoralist keepers; long marketing chains with many nodes and transactions; support services and inputs that feature intricate technologies; and production and marketing systems that are dynamic and involve feedbacks and delays. This complexity renders evaluation of potential of short- and long-term impacts of interventions challenging thus undermining efficiency in decision making by policy makers. • This study uses system dynamics (SD) - an innovative way of analysing potential impacts of interventions and policies in complex systems - to construct a model of small ruminants' production and marketing in Somaliland. To demonstrate how the new tool can be used, the study uses the model to analyse the impacts of baseline dynamics and alternative value chain interventions (including widespread adoption of flock size management to balance feed demand and supply; and adoption of vaccination to mitigate the risk of animal export bans due Rift valley fever (RVF) outbreaks) to address inherent constraints in the value chain. • Results show that without adoption of improved practices, prospects for growth of the small ruminants' sector are poor, and a decline is projected in the long-run due to erosion in stocking capacity. The sector incurs heavy losses due to occasional mass death of animals when drought occurs. Optimization of flock sizes to balance feed demand with supply can (ceteris-paribus) enhance productivity - boosting exports and domestic supply of slaughter animals; while reducing pastureland degradation, thus, ultimately reversing the projected long-run erosion of stocking capacity. Results also show that losses due to animal export bans occasioned by RVF outbreaks sometimes totals up to 12% of the GDP and can be up to 16 times the cost of keeping entire flocks vaccinated against the disease. • As failure to consider complexities when evaluating potential interventions in agricultural systems can lead to flawed or unsustainable policy recommendations, the SD model developed for Somaliland presents a way of dealing with the complexity in the Somaliland's livestock value chain when analysing impacts of interventions and policies. Results from the model also demonstrates a need for identification and adoption of interventions that can reverse the declining trend in stocking capacity and / or enable people to diversify their sources of livelihoods as a coping strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Nicaragua, the production of dairy and beef is the most important source of household income for many smallholder producers. However, erratic volumes and quality of milk limit the participation of small- and mediumscale cattle farmers into higher-value dairy value chains. This research uses a system dynamics (SD) approach to analyze the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua. The paper presents the conceptual framework of the model and highlights the dynamic processes in the value chain, with a focus on improving feeding systems to achieve higher milk productivity and increased income for producers. The model was developed using a participatory group model building (GMB) technique to jointly conceptualize and validate the model with stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the economic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US$2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US$76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US$74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199%. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Market access for African livestock products has long been stymied by a variety of animal diseases endemic in the region. The concept of commodity-based trade (CBT) has been advanced to make trade dependent on process-related attributes of production that ensure freedom from disease rather than the geographical origin of the animals themselves. This article looks at the potential of CBT in improving market access for beef from communal areas of Namibia, which have historically been excluded from high-value export markets. Model results suggest only modest gains from CBT, given the substantial costs of compliance with SPS and quality standards required for high-value markets. Regional markets may still offer the best option for beef exports from these areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Rinderpest is just one of two diseases that has been eradicated globally. [•] However, little has been documented on the socio-economic impacts of control. [•] A new methodological approach was developed to measure various disease impacts. [•] Applications to Chad and India highlight benefits to rinderpest eradication. [•] Local context is a critical element of disease control and impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Endemic foot and mouth disease (FMD) in East African cattle systems is one factor that limits access to export markets. The probability of FMD transmission associated with export from such systems have never been quantified and there is a need for data and analyses to guide strategies for livestock exports from regions where FMD remains endemic. The probability of infection among animals at slaughter is an important contributor to the risk of FMD transmission associated with the final beef product. In this study, we built a stochastic model to estimate the probability that beef cattle reach slaughter while infected with FMD virus for four production systems in two East African countries (Kenya and Uganda). Input values were derived from the primary literature and expert opinion. We found that the risk that FMD-infected animals reach slaughter under current conditions is high in both countries (median annual probability ranging from 0.05 among cattle from Kenyan feedlots to 0.62 from Ugandan semi-intensive systems). Cattle originating from feedlot and ranching systems in Kenya had the lowest overall probabilities of the eight systems evaluated. The final probabilities among cattle from all systems were sensitive to the likelihood of acquiring new infections en route to slaughter and especially the probability and extent of commingling with other cattle. These results give insight into factors that could be leveraged by potential interventions to lower the probability of FMD among beef cattle at slaughter. Such interventions should be evaluated considering the cost, logistics, and tradeoffs of each, ultimately guiding resource investment that is grounded in the values and capacity of each country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Myanmar has made rapid economic progress since the country began its transition to a more integrated market economy in the late 2000s. Although these gains are led by positive developments in the agricultural sector, agricultural productivity and profitability are among the lowest in Asia with high rates of poverty especially in rural areas. Small-scale farms dominate rural livelihoods in Myanmar, especially for the 87% of Myanmar's poor who live in rural areas. Hence, these small-scale farms are critical development leverage points as they are an important source of rural incomes to both farm and non-farm households. This study is part of a larger, five-year agricultural research and development project intended to upgrade pork and rice value chains and strengthen rural livelihoods in southern Myanmar's Tanintharyi Region. We evaluated producer-focused interventions to upgrade the pork value chain using tools that consider the dynamic and complex nature of the chain. This research used systems thinking and participatory methods to develop a system dynamics model of the pork value chain in southern Myanmar. The model integrated modules of animal production, marketing, investment, finance, and collective action. Scenario analysis with the model guided recommendations for pro-poor interventions for implementation within the five-year development project. Simulation results indicated that a mix of technical interventions implemented by functional producer groups showed promise in delivering sustained financial benefits to the target community and outperformed the short-term gains generated by these interventions in the absence of collective action. The model also highlighted specific interventions, such as improved financial services, animal health workers, and training that enabled poorer households to benefit from pig livelihoods while reducing risks from environmental and economic shocks. Within complex agri-food systems such as the pork value chain in Tanintharyi, a multi-pronged intervention strategy is recommended to address problems faced by small-scale agribusiness value chain participants. Development interventions tend to be implemented in complex environments, often with scarce data to inform decision-making. This research shows how system dynamics tools and spatial group model building processes could help overcome these inherent challenges by creating virtual laboratories where plausible project interventions can be tested and modified, bringing increased confidence to implementation choices. [Display omitted] • Pig production is an important livelihood activity among small-scale farmers in Myanmar, but pork value chains are weak. • We applied systems thinking and participatory methods to develop a system dynamics model of a local pork value chain. • Of the interventions assessed, financial services, animal health workers, and training were most beneficial to pig farmers. • A combination of interventions managed by producer groups showed promise in sustaining financial benefits to smallholders. • System dynamics tools provide a cost-effective way of evaluating, ex-ante, interventions in complex agri-food value chains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Animal disease outbreaks pose significant threats to livestock sectors throughout the world, both from the standpoint of the economic impacts of the disease itself and the measures taken to mitigate the risk of disease introduction. These impacts are multidimensional and not always well understood, complicating effective policy response. In the developing world, livestock diseases have broader, more nuanced effects on markets, poverty, and livelihoods, given the diversity of uses of livestock and complexity of livestock value chains. In both settings, disease control strategies, particularly those informed by ex ante modeling platforms, often fail to recognize the constraints inherent among farmers, veterinary services, and other value chain actors. In short, context matters. Correspondingly, an important gap in the animal health economics literature is the explicit incorporation of behavior and incentives in impact analyses that highlight the interactions of disease with its socio-economic and institutional setting. In this paper, we examine new approaches and frameworks for the analysis of economic and poverty impacts of animal diseases. We propose greater utilization of “bottom-up” analyses, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of value chain and information economics approaches in impact analyses and stressing the importance of improved integration between the epidemiology of disease and its relationships with economic behavior. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Market access for livestock products from Africa has traditionally been limited by the presence of certain infectious diseases that pose risks to animal and human health. However, an increasingly discussed option for widening that access is commodity-based trade (CBT) focusing on the health and safety attributes of the product rather than the disease status of the country of origin. There have, however, been few analyses on the potential economic impacts and unintended consequences of such an approach. This article examines the principles behind a dramatic shift in approach to trading opportunities that CBT might bring, exploring both technical and economic considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The analysis of value chains has augmented our knowledge on the complexities, inter-linkages, distributional benefits, and institutional arrangements of production and marketing channels in developing countries. However, the analysis remains relatively qualitative and case-specific, with limited ability to rank or assess the impact of alternative interventions or to analyze sufficiently the complex market dynamics and feedbacks present in livestock systems. This paper offers theoretical and applied insights on ways to improve the analytical rigor of the value chain methodology that combines both qualitative and quantitative approaches. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Because many animal diseases have strong transboundary attributes, their control can be reasonably characterised as an international public good. The potential for reservoirs of transboundary diseases to persist in developing countries that lack the capacity or incentives to control them implies a need for international financial transfers to fund control. However, the costs of control can be large compared with development assistance budgets, and the benefits small compared with the global benefits of control and the local benefits of other priority investments. This article outlines a framework for setting priorities for international development assistance for animal disease control based on the incidence of market and non-market impacts and the context in which outbreaks take place in endemic and susceptible countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing recognition that food systems must adapt to become more sustainable and equitable. Consequently, in developing country contexts, there is increasing momentum away from traditional producer-facing value chain upgrades towards efforts to increase both the availability and affordability of nutritious foods at the consumer level. However, such goals must navigate the inherent complexities of agricultural value chains, which involve multiple interactions, feedbacks and unintended consequences, including important but often surprising trade-offs between producers and consumers. Based around the 'Loop' horticultural aggregation scheme of Digital Green in Bihar, India, we develop a system dynamics modelling framework to survey the value chain trade-offs emerging from upgrades that aim to improve the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail-oriented markets. We model the processes of horticultural production, aggregation, marketing, and retailing – searching for futures that are 'win-win-win' for: (i) the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail markets, (ii) the profits of farmers participating in aggregation, and (iii) the sustainability of the initial scheme for Digital Green as an organisation. We simulate two internal upgrades to aggregation and two upgrades to the wider enabling environment through a series of 5000 Monte Carlo trajectories – designed to explore the plausible future dynamics of the three outcome dimensions relative to the baseline. We find that 'win-win-win' futures cannot be achieved by internal changes to the aggregation scheme alone, emerging under a narrow range of scenarios that boost supplies to the small retail market whilst simultaneously supporting the financial takeaways of farmers. In contrast, undesirable producer versus consumer trade-offs emerge as unintended consequences of scaling-up aggregation and the introduction of market-based cold storage. This approach furthers ongoing efforts to capture complex value chain processes, outcomes and upgrades within system dynamics modelling frameworks, before scanning the horizon of plausible external scenarios, internal dynamics and unintended trade-offs to identify 'win-win-win' futures for all. [Display omitted] • It is increasingly acknowledged that food system interventions must benefit both producers and consumers • We develop a systems tool to explore trade-offs emerging from adapting value chain interventions to become more consumer-sensitive • Futures with improved local vegetable delivery, producer profits and intervention costs are traced to their causal dynamics • 'Win-win-wins' require improved local retail demands to attract farmers away from urban markets without weakening profits • Systems-based approaches can horizon-scan plausible futures that navigate complex trade-offs in agricultural value chains [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the use of social accounting matrices (SAMs) for three African countries to model the income effects of stylized structural adjustment programs (SAPs) on different socioeconomic groups. What is revealed by the analysis; Information on the how the presence of rural elite or strong farm-nonfarm linkages improves the political sustainability of SAP.

The liberalization of beef exports in Botswana is hotly debated among policy makers and relevant value chain actors. While some policy makers argue that such a move might increase prices for producers and make beef unaffordable for consumers, others suggest an open market would reduce the profitability of the beef sector in Botswana. At the same time, these impacts will be mediated by the presence of animal disease and the availability of sufficient feed and water. In this paper, we constructed an integrated system dynamics (SD) model that captures the feedbacks between the biological dynamics of cattle production, the economics of animal and meat marketing and trade, and the impacts that environmental pressures such as rainfall and animal disease have on the system. We used this model to run a series of scenarios associated with market liberalization and animal health shocks to quantify their impacts throughout the value chain, taking into account the feedbacks between biology, markets, and environment on the value chain itself. This approach allows for a holistic evaluation of policy options on different chain actors and whole chain performance, and provides a knowledge base for prioritizing interventions. Model results suggested that although disease control policies benefit all value chain actors, gains from market liberalization come at the expense of substantial losses to Botswana Meat Commission (BMC) and its contracted feedlots. They also suggest that combining market liberalization policy reforms with better animal disease controls greatly improved the financial performance of all value chain actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While demands for animal disease surveillance systems are growing, there has been little applied research that has examined the interactions between resource allocation, cost-effectiveness, and behavioral considerations of actors throughout the livestock supply chain in a surveillance system context. These interactions are important as feedbacks between surveillance decisions and disease evolution may be modulated by their contextual drivers, influencing the cost-effectiveness of a given surveillance system. This paper identifies a number of key behavioral aspects involved in animal health surveillance systems and reviews some novel methodologies for their analysis. A generic framework for analysis is discussed, with exemplar results provided to demonstrate the utility of such an approach in guiding better disease control and surveillance decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly infectious disease of sheep and goats that is caused by PPR virus, a member of the genus Morbillivirus that includes the viruses that cause rinderpest (RP) in cattle. RP was the first animal disease to be globally eradicated in 2011 and is only the second disease, after smallpox, to have ever been eradicated. PPR is one of the principal constraints to small ruminant production in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. The epidemiology of PPR and RP as well as the technologies available for their diagnosis and control are similar. The conditions that favored the eradication of RP are also largely present for PPR. In this work, we oudine the evolving strategy for eradication in light of current opportunities and challenges, as well as the lessons from other eradication programs in animal and human health. The global PPR situation and technology for its control are summarized. A strategy based on the lessons from previous eradication efforts that integrate epidemiology, social science, and economics as tools to target and motivate vaccination is summarized. Major aspects of the cost and benefit-cost analysis of the indicated program are presented. The overall undiscounted cost of eradication was estimated as $3.1 billion, and the benefit-cost ratiofor the most likely scenario was estimated at 33.8. We close with a discussion of the possible next steps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the patterns and drivers of antibiotic use in livestock is crucial for tailoring efficient incentives for responsible use of antibiotics. Here we compared routines for antibiotic use between pig farms of two different levels of intensification in Khon Kaen province in Thailand. Among the 113 family-owned small-scale farms (up to 50 sows) interviewed did 76% get advice from the pharmacy about how to use the antibiotics and 84% used it primarily for treating disease. Among the 51 medium-scale-farms (100–500 sows) belonging to two companies did 100% get advice about antibiotic use from the company's veterinarian (P<0.0001) and 94% used antibiotics mostly as disease preventive measure (P<0.0001). In 2 small scale farms 3rd generation cephalosporins, tylosin or colistin were used; antibiotics belonging to the group of highest priority critically important antimicrobials for human medicine. Enrofloxacin, belonging to the same group of antimicrobials, was used in 33% of the small-scale and 41% of the medium-scale farms. In the latter farms, the companies supplied 3–4 antibiotics belonging to different classes and those were the only antibiotics used in the farms. The median and mean estimated expenditure on antibiotics per sow was 4.8 USD (IQR = 5.8) for small-scale farms and 7 USD and 3.4 USD for the medium-scale farms belonging to the two respective companies. Our observations suggest to target the following areas when pig farming transitions from small-scale to medium-scale: (i) strengthening access to professional animal health services for all farmers, (ii) review of the competence and role of veterinary pharmacies in selling antibiotics and (iii) adjustment of farming company animal health protocols towards more medically rational use of antibiotics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aquaculture systems are highly complex, dynamic and interconnected systems influenced by environmental, biological, cultural, socio-economic and human behavioural factors. Intensification of aquaculture production is likely to drive indiscriminate use of antibiotics to treat or prevent disease and increase productivity, often to compensate for management and husbandry deficiencies. Surveillance or monitoring of antibiotic usage (ABU) and antibiotic resistance (ABR) is often lacking or absent. Consequently, there are knowledge gaps for the risk of ABR emergence and human exposure to ABR in these systems and the wider environment. The aim of this study was to use a systems-thinking approach to map two aquaculture systems in Vietnam – striped catfish and white-leg shrimp – to identify hotspots for emergence and selection of resistance, and human exposure to antibiotics and antibiotic-resistant bacteria. System mapping was conducted by stakeholders at an interdisciplinary workshop in Hanoi, Vietnam during January 2018, and the maps generated were refined until consensus. Thereafter, literature was reviewed to complement and cross-reference information and to validate the final maps. The maps and component interactions with the environment revealed the grow-out phase, where juveniles are cultured to harvest size, to be a key hotspot for emergence of ABR in both systems due to direct and indirect ABU, exposure to water contaminated with antibiotics and antibiotic-resistant bacteria, and duration of this stage. The pathways for human exposure to antibiotics and ABR were characterised as: occupational (on-farm and at different handling points along the value chain), through consumption (bacterial contamination and residues) and by environmental routes. By using systems thinking and mapping by stakeholders to identify hotspots we demonstrate the applicability of an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to characterising ABU in aquaculture. This work provides a foundation to quantify risks at different points, understand interactions between components, and identify stakeholders who can lead and implement change. Unlabelled Image • The contribution of aquaculture to antibiotic resistance is not well understood. • Systems mapping was used for two aquaculture systems in Vietnam. • Hotspots were identified for the emergence/selection of antibiotic resistance. • Human exposure points to antibiotics and antibiotic-resistant bacteria were mapped. • Findings inform risk quantification and identification of stakeholders to effect change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal diseases are global issues affecting the productivity and financial profitability of affected farms. Johne’s disease is distributed on farms worldwide and is an endemic contagious bacterial infection in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis. In cattle, the clinical disease manifests itself as chronic enteritis resulting in reduced production, weight loss, and eventually death. Johne’s disease is prevalent in the UK, including Scotland. Direct costs and losses associated with Johne’s disease have been estimated in previous research, confirming an important economic impact of the disease in UK herds. Despite this, the distributional impact of Johne’s disease among milk consumers and producers in Scotland has not been estimated. In this paper, we evaluate the change in society’s economic welfare, namely to dairy producers (i.e. infected and uninfected herds) and milk consumers in Scotland induced by the introduction of Johne’s disease in the national Scottish dairy herd. At the national-level, we conclude that the economic burden falls mainly on producers of infected herds and, to a lesser extent, milk consumers, while producers of uninfected herds benefit from the presence of Johne’s. An infected producer’s loss per cow is approximately two times larger in magnitude than that of an uninfected producer’s gain. Such economic welfare estimates are an important comparison of the relative costs of national herd prevalence and the wider economic welfare implications for both producers and consumers. This is particularly important from a policy, public good, cost sharing, and human health perspective. The economic welfare framework presented in this paper can be applied to other diseases to examine the relative burden of society’s economic welfare of alternative livestock disease scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity analysis evaluates uncertainty in economic welfare given limited data and uncertainty in the national herd prevalence, and other input parameters, associated with Johne’s disease in Scotland. Therefore, until the prevalence of Johne’s is better understood, the full economic cost to Scottish dairy herds remains uncertain but in the meantime the sensitivity analysis evaluates the robustness of economic welfare to such uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Coast Fever (ECF) is the most economically important production disease among traditional beef cattle farmers in Zambia. Despite the disease control efforts by the government, donors, and farmers, ECF cases are increasing. Why does ECF oscillate over time? Can alternative approaches such as systems thinking contribute solutions to the complex ECF problem, avoid unintended consequences, and achieve sustainable results? To answer these research questions and inform the design and implementation of ECF interventions, we qualitatively investigated the influence of dynamic socio-economic, cultural, and ecological factors. We used system dynamics modelling to specify these dynamics qualitatively, and an innovative participatory framework called spatial group model building (SGMB). SGMB uses participatory geographical information system (GIS) concepts and techniques to capture the role of spatial phenomenon in the context of complex systems, allowing stakeholders to identify spatial phenomenon directly on physical maps and integrate such information in model development. Our SGMB process convened focus groups of beef value chain stakeholders in two distinct production systems. The focus groups helped to jointly construct a series of interrelated system dynamics models that described ECF in a broader systems context. Thus, a complementary objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of system dynamics modelling and SGMB in animal health. The SGMB process revealed policy leverage points in the beef cattle value chain that could be targeted to improve ECF control. For example, policies that develop sustainable and stable cattle markets and improve household income availability may have positive feedback effects on investment in animal health. The results obtained from a SGMB process also demonstrated that a “one-size-fits-all” approach may not be equally effective in policing ECF in different agro-ecological zones due to the complex interactions of socio-ecological context with important, and often ignored, spatial patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans have never been healthier, wealthier or more numerous. Yet, present success may be at the cost of future prosperity and in some places, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, poverty persists. Livestock keepers, especially pastoralists, are over-represented among the poor. Poverty has been mainly attributed to a lack of access, whether to goods, education or enabling institutions. More recent insights suggest ecosystems may influence poverty and the self-reinforcing mechanisms that constitute poverty traps in more subtle ways. The plausibility of zoonoses as poverty traps is strengthened by landmark studies on disease burden in recent years. While in theory, endemic zoonoses are best controlled in the animal host, in practice, communities are often left to manage disease themselves, with the focus on treatment rather than prevention. We illustrate this with results from a survey on health costs in a pastoral ecosystem. Epidemic zoonoses are more likely to elicit official responses, but these can have unintended consequences that deepen poverty traps. In this context, a systems understanding of disease control can lead to more effective and pro-poor disease management. We illustrate this with an example of how a system dynamics model can help optimize responses to Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Kenya by giving decision makers real-time access to the costs of the delay in vaccinating. In conclusion, a broader, more ecological understanding of poverty and of the appropriate responses to the diseases of poverty can contribute to improved livelihoods for livestock keepers in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the Codex Alimentarious framework, this study quantitatively assessed the risk of developing salmonellosis through consumption of beef in Lusaka Province of Zambia. Data used to achieve this objective were obtained from reviews of scientific literature, Government reports, and survey results from a questionnaire that was administered to consumers to address information gaps from secondary data. The Swift Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (sQMRA) model was used to analyse the data. The study was driven by a lack of empircally-based risk estimation despite a number of reported cases of salmonellosis in humans. A typology of consumers including all age groups was developed based on their beef consumption habits, distinguishing between those with low home consumption, those with medium levels of home consumption, and those with high levels through restaurant consumption. This study shows that the risk of developing salmonellosis in this population, from consuming beef, was generally low. At ID50 of 9.61 × 10 3 cfu/g and a retail contamination concentration of 12 cfu/g, the risk of developing salmonellosis through the consumption of beef prepared by consumers with low and medium levels of beef consumption was estimated at 0.06% and 0.08%, respectively, while the risk associated with restaurant consumption was estimated at 0.16% per year. The study concludes that the risk of developing salmonellosis among residents in Lusaka province, as a result of beef consumption, was generally low, mainly due to the methods used for food preparation. Further work is required to broaden the scope of the study and also undertake microbiological evaluation of ready-to-eat beef from both the household and restaurant risk exposure pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the ex-ante impacts of on-farm diversification and forward integration strategies on agricultural value chain resilience, with an empirical focus on Ghana's cocoa value chain. System dynamics modelling was used to explore five scenarios involving variable-input on-farm diversification pursued by cocoa farmers in Ghana and the simultaneous adoption of forward integration strategies by Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire. An adaptive strategy involving the simultaneous pursuit of variable-input on-farm diversification and a cooperative forward integration strategy by both Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire was found to result in the highest level of resilience. Under such an adaptive strategy, in-country processors will be the most impacted when the level of safety stocks are below 25% of the average stock level during the period of losses in raw material production. The findings suggest that a policy direction that supports on-farm diversification and in-country processing enhances the aggregate resilience of the cocoa value chain, irrespective of the forward integration strategy adopted by Cote d'Ivoire. • On-farm diversification improves the resilience of the cocoa value chain. • A complementarity exists between diversification and forward integration strategy. • Ghana's cocoa value chain is resilient when in-country processing levels increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]