An assessment of small ruminant production, marketing, and investment options in Somaliland: A system dynamics approach.

A complex set of factors affect the production and sale of livestock in Somaliland, including feed supply, diseases, and demand, among others. This study constructs a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the impacts of baseline dynamics and alternative value chain interventions to address inherent constraints. Findings indicate that Somaliland incurs high economic losses due to occasional animal export bans associated with Rift valley fever (RVF) outbreaks (up to 12% of GDP) and lack of pasture during droughts, given the lack of effort by producers to balance their flock sizes with stocking capacity. Under the baseline conditions, prospects for growth of the small ruminants' sector are poor as the stocking rate is centered and stagnated at about 2.54 million TLUs, and a decline is projected in the long run. In contrast, the adoption of optimization of animal herd sizes in order to balance feed demand with supply could (ceteris-paribus) enhance productivity, boosting exports and domestic supply of slaughter animals and also lead to improved rangeland conditions, ultimately reversing the projected long-run erosion of stocking capacity. • The small ruminants' production and marketing sector, - which is the mainstay of the economy and livelihoods in Somaliland – entails a pretty complex value chain with livestock serving multiple functions for the pastoralist keepers; long marketing chains with many nodes and transactions; support services and inputs that feature intricate technologies; and production and marketing systems that are dynamic and involve feedbacks and delays. This complexity renders evaluation of potential of short- and long-term impacts of interventions challenging thus undermining efficiency in decision making by policy makers. • This study uses system dynamics (SD) - an innovative way of analysing potential impacts of interventions and policies in complex systems - to construct a model of small ruminants' production and marketing in Somaliland. To demonstrate how the new tool can be used, the study uses the model to analyse the impacts of baseline dynamics and alternative value chain interventions (including widespread adoption of flock size management to balance feed demand and supply; and adoption of vaccination to mitigate the risk of animal export bans due Rift valley fever (RVF) outbreaks) to address inherent constraints in the value chain. • Results show that without adoption of improved practices, prospects for growth of the small ruminants' sector are poor, and a decline is projected in the long-run due to erosion in stocking capacity. The sector incurs heavy losses due to occasional mass death of animals when drought occurs. Optimization of flock sizes to balance feed demand with supply can (ceteris-paribus) enhance productivity - boosting exports and domestic supply of slaughter animals; while reducing pastureland degradation, thus, ultimately reversing the projected long-run erosion of stocking capacity. Results also show that losses due to animal export bans occasioned by RVF outbreaks sometimes totals up to 12% of the GDP and can be up to 16 times the cost of keeping entire flocks vaccinated against the disease. • As failure to consider complexities when evaluating potential interventions in agricultural systems can lead to flawed or unsustainable policy recommendations, the SD model developed for Somaliland presents a way of dealing with the complexity in the Somaliland's livestock value chain when analysing impacts of interventions and policies. Results from the model also demonstrates a need for identification and adoption of interventions that can reverse the declining trend in stocking capacity and / or enable people to diversify their sources of livelihoods as a coping strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]