Search

Sea level change, a consequence of climate change, poses a global threat with escalating impacts on coastal regions. Since 1880, global mean sea level has risen by 8–9 inches (21–24 cm), reaching a record high in 2021. Projections by NOAA suggest an additional 10–12-inch increase by 2050. This paper explores research methodologies for studying sea level change, focusing on Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. GIS has become a powerful tool in sea level change research, allowing the integration of spatial data, coastal process modeling, and impact assessment. This paper sets the link with sustainability and reviews key factors influencing sea level change, such as thermal expansion and ice-mass loss, and examines how GIS is applied. It also highlights the importance of using different scenarios, like Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), for accurate predictions. The paper discusses data sources, index variables like the Coastal Vulnerability Index, and GIS solutions for modeling sea level rise impacts. By synthesizing findings from previous research, it contributes to a better understanding of GIS methodologies in sea level change studies. This knowledge aids policymakers and researchers in developing strategies to address sea level change challenges and enhance coastal resilience. Furthermore, global analysis highlights the pivotal roles of the United States and China in sea level change (SLC) and GIS research. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, rising temperatures have substantial impacts on local sea levels and extreme weather events, particularly affecting vulnerable coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change scenarios, and their projected impacts on biodiversity, are highly relevant at local scales but not adequately captured by the coarse spatial resolutions of global land use models. In this study, we used the land use allocation tool of the GLOBIO 4 model to downscale the Land Use Harmonization v2 (LUH2) data from their original spatial resolution (0.25°) to 100 m and 10 m resolutions, using the country of Belgium as an example. Inputs to the tool included: (1) a reference present-day land cover map at the high spatial resolution, (2) regional land demand projections for three future scenarios, Sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), Regional Rivalry (SSP3xRCP6.0), and Fossil-fuelled Development (SSP5xRCP8.5), and (3) raster layers representing the suitability of the grid cells for different land use types. We further investigated the impact of using different reference land cover maps (CORINE at 100 m resolution and ESA WorldCover at 100 m and 10 m resolutions) on the downscaling outcomes. Comparison of downscaled current and future land use maps with the original LUH2 dataset showed that the use of ESA WorldCover as a reference map provides better agreement (RSR: 0.11–0.24, overall accuracy: 0.94–0.98, Kappa: 0.91–0.97) than CORINE (RSR: 0.28–0.33, overall accuracy: 0.90–0.93, Kappa: 0.90–0.91). Additionally, the validation of the present-day downscaled maps showed a good agreement with the independent Copernicus Global Land Service dataset. Our findings suggest that the choice of reference land cover map influences the degree of agreement between the downscaled and the original coarse-grain land-use maps. Moreover, the land use maps produced using our downscaling approach can provide valuable insights into the potential impacts of land use change on biodiversity and can guide local decision-making processes for sustainable land management and conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change scenarios, and their projected impacts on biodiversity, are highly relevant at local scales but not adequately captured by the coarse spatial resolutions of global land use models. In this study, we used the land use allocation tool of the GLOBIO 4 model to downscale the Land Use Harmonization v2 (LUH2) data from their original spatial resolution (0.25°) to 100 m and 10 m resolutions, using the country of Belgium as an example. Inputs to the tool included: (1) a reference present-day land cover map at the high spatial resolution, (2) regional land demand projections for three future scenarios, Sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), Regional Rivalry (SSP3xRCP6.0), and Fossil-fuelled Development (SSP5xRCP8.5), and (3) raster layers representing the suitability of the grid cells for different land use types. We further investigated the impact of using different reference land cover maps (CORINE at 100 m resolution and ESA WorldCover at 100 m and 10 m resolutions) on the downscaling outcomes. Comparison of downscaled current and future land use maps with the original LUH2 dataset showed that the use of ESA WorldCover as a reference map provides better agreement (RSR: 0.11–0.24, overall accuracy: 0.94–0.98, Kappa: 0.91–0.97) than CORINE (RSR: 0.28–0.33, overall accuracy: 0.90–0.93, Kappa: 0.90–0.91). Additionally, the validation of the present-day downscaled maps showed a good agreement with the independent Copernicus Global Land Service dataset. Our findings suggest that the choice of reference land cover map influences the degree of agreement between the downscaled and the original coarse-grain land-use maps. Moreover, the land use maps produced using our downscaling approach can provide valuable insights into the potential impacts of land use change on biodiversity and can guide local decision-making processes for sustainable land management and conservation efforts.

Study region: The Pra river catchment in Ghana, West Africa. Study focus: Knowledge of the spatio-temporal distribution of wet and dry spells are crucial for rain-fed agriculture at the Pra River catchment. This study characterised spells and their associated atmospheric dynamics at the Pra river catchment. Specifically, the variability of historical and future wet and dry spells and atmospheric dynamics on the rainfall and spell patterns at the catchment were studied. New hydrological insights: Short duration spells have a higher occurrence at the catchment as compared to long duration spells. Seasonally, short duration dry spells are most common in December–February, whereas wet spells are expected in March–May. Future scenarios show an increase in both wet and dry spells. Composites of the atmospheric dynamics for 2–3 day dry spells show moisture convergence over the entire catchment, with lower total column water levels. However, there is a dipole of moisture convergence and divergence for wet spell composites, with higher than normal total column water. An anticyclonic circulation, inducing a ridge at 500 hPa, coupled with low-level southerlies at 850 hPa act to support wet spell occurrences in JJA. The findings contribute to sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting, and hence will improve agricultural practices in the catchment in support of food security.

Climate change is likely to have adverse impacts on hydrological processes in a river basin, by altered runoff due to modifications in land use/land cover (LULC) and catchment hydrology. Substantial uncertainty exists to evaluate impacts of climate change on river catchment due to uncertainty in general circulation model (GCM) projections. In this study, impact of climate change on water balance and hydrological regime of Manipur River basin was investigated using SWAT model. A comprehensive semi-distributed soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was used for future projection of changes in hydrological regime of Manipur River basin based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). A coupled model intercomparison project’s (CMIP5) based GCM downscaled outputs and future LULC projected data were used in the analysis. The projected temperature is likely to be increased by 2.84°C and increase of 836 mm in annual average precipitation is projected under RCP 8.5 by 2090s. Change in meteorological condition and LULC will lead to increase in runoff, evapotranspiration and water yield by 57.79 m3/s (38.32%), 318.7 mm (54.59%) and 629.72 mm (89.82%), respectively, by the end of 21st century. This study demonstrates the importance of water balance components and its spatial and temporal variation in the Manipur River basin. The key findings of this study reveals that the runoff, evapotranspiration and water yield will increase in the coming decades. Increase in water yield may lead to landslides in the hilly region and flooding in low lying areas in future. Highlights: Both precipitation and temperature is likely to increase in Manipur River basin. There is high risk of floods in the lower regions near Loktak Lake and landslides in the northern part of the basin. There is no major concern with regard to water scarcity in the coming decades in Manipur River basin. There is good potential of hydro-power generation in the Manipur River basin because of increase in discharge especially during monsoon and post-monsoon season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical–biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global land-use/land-cover (LULC) change projections and historical datasets are typically available at coarse grid resolutions and are often incompatible with modeling applications at local to regional scales. The difficulty of downscaling and reapportioning global gridded LULC change projections to regional boundaries is a barrier to the use of these datasets in a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) framework. Here we compare three downscaling techniques to transform gridded LULC transitions into spatial scales and thematic LULC classes appropriate for use in a regional STSM. For each downscaling approach, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) LULC projections, at the 0.5 × 0.5 cell resolution, were downscaled to seven Level III ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest, United States. RCP transition values at each cell were downscaled based on the proportional distribution between ecoregions of (1) cell area, (2) land-cover composition derived from remotely-sensed imagery, and (3) historic LULC transition values from a LULC history database. Resulting downscaled LULC transition values were aggregated according to their bounding ecoregion and “cross-walked” to relevant LULC classes. Ecoregion-level LULC transition values were applied in a STSM projecting LULC change between 2005 and 2100. While each downscaling methods had advantages and disadvantages, downscaling using the historical land-use history dataset consistently apportioned RCP LULC transitions in agreement with historical observations. Regardless of the downscaling method, some LULC projections remain improbable and require further investigation.

Precipitation over Lake Victoria in East Africa greatly influences its water balance. Over 30 million people rely on Lake Victoria for food, potable water, hydropower and transport. Projecting precipitation changes over the lake is vital in dealing with climate change impacts. The past and future precipitation over the lake were assessed using 42 model runs obtained from 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the newest generation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Two CMIP5 scenarios defined by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used to explore climate change impacts. The daily precipitation over Lake Victoria for the period 1962–2002 was compared with future projections for the 2040s and 2075s. The ability of GCMs to project daily, monthly and annual precipitation over the lake was evaluated based on the mean error, root mean square error and the frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation. Higher resolution models (grid size 2.5°). The total annual precipitation is expected to increase by less than 10% for the RCP4.5 scenario and less than 20% for the RCP8.5 scenario over the 21st century, despite the higher (up to 40%) increase in extreme daily intensities.

[Display omitted] • New empirical estimates are provided for monthly R-factors over Italy for 1981–2010. • R-factor is currently larger in autumn and summer, lower in spring and winter. • 29 EURO-CORDEX projections for 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 under three RCPs are used. • Future anomalies are critical in autumn (whole Italy), and in summer (North). • There is a large variability associated with the use of an ensemble of projections. The estimation of rainfall erosivity in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) requires long series of sub-hourly rainfall observations. Due to the endemic unavailability of this information, at least with the required degree of detail and coverage, empirical models are frequently used for the estimation of rainfall erosivity basing on easily retrievable rainfall values at the monthly or annual scale. In this paper, an empirical model is calibrated for Italy to bridge the annual to monthly scale gap by means of 10-year series of monthly rainfall observations at 171 Italian rain gauges, and then applied using the ERA5-Land gridded rainfall dataset to obtain maps of monthly and seasonal rainfall erosivity covering the reference period 1981–2010. Successively, 29 EURO-CORDEX bias-corrected rainfall projections for two future horizons (2021–2050 and 2051–2080 under RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) are used to obtain expected anomalies of seasonal rainfall erosivity over Italy with respect to the reference period. Statistical and visual analysis of results shows that positive percentage anomalies are expected in large portions of the country, especially under RCP 2.6 but with significant increases expected also under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, especially in autumn and, secondarily, in summer. This intra-annual rainfall erosivity anomaly pattern entails the existence of increasing trends in the erosion hazard that cannot be captured by empirical models only relying on annual rainfall. The position of those results in the related literature is deeply discussed, providing significant insights on uncertainty sources and possible future research developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation over Lake Victoria in East Africa greatly influences its water balance. Over 30 million people rely on Lake Victoria for food, potable water, hydropower and transport. Projecting precipitation changes over the lake is vital in dealing with climate change impacts. The past and future precipitation over the lake were assessed using 42 model runs obtained from 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the newest generation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Two CMIP5 scenarios defined by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used to explore climate change impacts. The daily precipitation over Lake Victoria for the period 1962–2002 was compared with future projections for the 2040s and 2075s. The ability of GCMs to project daily, monthly and annual precipitation over the lake was evaluated based on the mean error, root mean square error and the frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation. Higher resolution models (grid size <1.5°) simulated monthly variations better than low resolution models (grid size >2.5°). The total annual precipitation is expected to increase by less than 10% for the RCP4.5 scenario and less than 20% for the RCP8.5 scenario over the 21st century, despite the higher (up to 40%) increase in extreme daily intensities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High building energy consumption to guarantee users' thermal comfort has greatly impact the built environment worldwide. Energy saving strategies based on adaptive comfort models could be an opportunity to reduce the energy consumption of the built environment. However, climate change could modify the viability of these measures. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios constitute the most updated scenario framework, with various tendencies depending on the radiative forcing in 2100, and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios were considered to study the demographic tendencies expected throughout the 21st century. This study analysed the effectiveness of using adaptive energy saving strategies with RCP and SSP scenarios around the world. A dataset composed of 997,000 locations was generated by assessing the application of the adaptive strategies in both the current scenario, RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m 2) and the five SSP scenarios (SSP1-SSP5) in 2050 and 2100. The results showed that the increase of outdoor temperature reduces the regions where the application of the adaptive model is low, although its application is reduced in zones in which it is used most of the year (particularly in the RCP 8.5 scenario). Considering the SSP scenarios, it is expected that a greater percentage of population could apply the adaptive model throughout the year. Furthermore, adaptive cooling setpoint temperatures increase the saving data distribution in hourly degrees, so they are an effective measure to guarantee a greater resilience of the built environment in relation to the increase of energy demand of air conditioning systems. - Analysis of adaptive energy saving strategies around the world. - Current scenario and Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) in 2050 and 2100. - Demographic analysis of energy saving strategies through the SSP scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discussion and analysis on international climate policy often focuses on the rather abstract level of total national and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At some point, however, emission reductions need to be translated to consumption level. In this article, we evaluate the implications of the strictest IPCC representative concentration pathway for key consumption categories (food, travel, shelter, goods, services). We use IPAT style identities to account for possible growth in global consumption levels and indicate the required change in GHG emission intensity for each category (i.e. GHG emission per calorie, person kilometer, square meter, kilogram, US dollar). The proposed concept provides guidance for product developers, consumers and policymakers. To reach the 2 °C climate target (2.1 tCO _2 -eq. per capita in 2050), the GHG emission intensity of consumption has to be reduced by a factor of 5 in 2050. The climate targets on consumption level allow discussion of the feasibility of this climate target at product and consumption level. In most consumption categories products in line with this climate target are available. For animal food and air travel, reaching the GHG intensity targets with product modifications alone will be challenging and therefore structural changes in consumption patterns might be needed. The concept opens up possibilities for further research on potential solutions on the consumption and product level to global climate mitigation.