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Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea
- Source :
- Ambio
- Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical–biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-019-01229-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
- Subjects :
- Baltic States
Ecosystem Governance in the Baltic Sea
0106 biological sciences
Food Chain
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
IMPACT
Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)
Geography, Planning and Development
CONSERVATION
Biodiversity
Fisheries
Climate change
Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser
01 natural sciences
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
FISH
Animals
Environmental Chemistry
QUALITY
Ecosystem
14. Life underwater
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Ecospace
CLIMATE-CHANGE
Ecology
010604 marine biology & hydrobiology
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)
General Medicine
RECOVERY
Food web
SCENARIOS
Fishery
Habitat
13. Climate action
Greenhouse gas
Nutrient pollution
EUTROPHICATION
1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology
Environmental science
Fisheries management
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Ambio
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....3e0d3205c8f76608918d96693e98d710