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Abstract Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are associated with cardiometabolic diseases and social inequities. For most nations, recent estimates and trends of intake are not available; nor variation by education or urbanicity. We investigated SSB intakes among adults between 1990 and 2018 in 185 countries, stratified subnationally by age, sex, education, and rural/urban residence, using data from the Global Dietary Database. In 2018, mean global SSB intake was 2.7 (8 oz = 248 grams) servings/week (95% UI 2.5-2.9) (range: 0.7 (0.5-1.1) in South Asia to 7.8 (7.1-8.6) in Latin America/Caribbean). Intakes were higher in male vs. female, younger vs. older, more vs. less educated, and urban vs. rural adults. Variations by education and urbanicity were largest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 1990 and 2018, SSB intakes increased by +0.37 (+0.29, +0.47), with the largest increase in Sub-Saharan Africa. These findings inform intervention, surveillance, and policy actions worldwide, highlighting the growing problem of SSBs for public health in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Abstract Objective: The Global Dietary Database (GDD) expanded its previous methods to harmonise and publicly disseminate individual-level dietary data from nutrition surveys worldwide. Design: Analysis of cross-sectional data. Setting: Global. Participants: General population. Methods: Comprehensive methods to streamline the harmonisation of primary, individual-level 24-h recall and food record data worldwide were developed. To standardise the varying food descriptions, FoodEx2 was used, a highly detailed food classification and description system developed and adapted for international use by European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Standardised processes were developed to: identify eligible surveys; contact data owners; screen surveys for inclusion; harmonise data structure, variable definition and unit and food characterisation; perform data checks and publicly disseminate the harmonised datasets. The GDD joined forces with FAO and EFSA, given the shared goal of harmonising individual-level dietary data worldwide. Results: Of 1500 dietary surveys identified, 600 met the eligibility criteria, and 156 were prioritised and contacted; fifty-five surveys were included for harmonisation and, ultimately, fifty two were harmonised. The included surveys were primarily nationally representative (59 %); included high- (39 %), upper-middle (21 %), lower-middle (27 %) and low- (13 %) income countries; usually collected multiple recalls/ records (64 %) and largely captured both sexes, all ages and both rural and urban areas. Surveys from low- and lower-middle v. high- and upper-middle income countries reported fewer nutrients (median 17 v. 30) and rarely included nutrients relevant to diet-related chronic diseases, such as n-3 fatty acids and Na. Conclusions: Diverse 24-h recalls/records can be harmonised to provide highly granular, standardised data, supporting nutrition programming, research and capacity development worldwide.

The challenges in the characterization of the nutritional quality of grain foods comprise obstacles to public health actions toward promotion of healthier grain-based foods. The present study investigated how carbohydrate metrics related to glycemic index (GI), glycemic load (GL), and warning labels of grain foods consumed by individuals living in São Paulo, Brazil. Information on intake of grain foods at individual level was obtained using 24 h recalls within a cross-sectional population-based survey conducted in 2015. There were 244 unique grain products reported by individuals in the survey, assessed through four metrics of carbohydrate quality, considering contents per 10 g of total carbohydrate: (1) ≥1 g fiber, (2) ≥1 g fiber and p-values < 0.001]), and GL (−12.5 to −10.3 [p-values < 0.001]). Warning systems showed a certain degree of discrimination between products according to the metrics (p-value < 0.01 each); however, >50% of products with good nutritional quality according to the carbohydrate metrics still would receive warnings. Findings suggest that carbohydrate metrics identified products with lower GI and GL, and current warning labels may not adequately capture overall nutritional quality of grain foods.

Background: The aim of this study was to assess smoking prevalence among Greek adults and in sub-populations with specific sociodemographic and lifestyle determinants. Moreover, to explore the association between smoking and weight status and specific stress-related states. Methods: Data from 3,820 adults (47.5% males), included in the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey, were used. Information was obtained on sociodemographic, lifestyle, anthropometric factors, and stress-related states. Results were obtained using survey-specific analysis. Results: Smoking prevalence was 33.5% in total and was significantly higher in males 39.1% (95%CI: 36.3%–41.8%) compared to females 29.4% (95%CI: 27.4%–31.6%; p

Background: Because of the increased burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD), country specific risk prediction models to forecast future CVD events and mortality are recommended, for primary prevention. The aim of this study was to recalibrate the HellenicSCORE, to accurately estimate the 10-year risk CVD mortality of Greek adults. Methods: Data from the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS) were used (N = 1012; 37.9% males). Information on age, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and total blood cholesterol from adults >40 years of age were derived following validated health survey protocols. Individual scores were calculated using these data and beta-coefficients derived from ESC SCORE. Results: Both updated HellenicSCORE II charts had lower risk estimates compared to the older version and were closer to the ESC SCORE charts, particularly at the extremes. No significant age difference by sex was observed (mean 59.5 (SD 13.1) years in total) in the population. Women had a significant higher mean total cholesterol compared to men [212.9 (39.5) vs 204.6 (41.2) mg/dl, respectively; p = 0.0343], but smoking prevalence and mean SBP was significantly higher in men [p for all,

Associations between of omega-3 fatty acids and mortality are not clear. Here the authors report that, based on a pooled analysis of 17 prospective cohort studies, higher blood omega-3 fatty acid levels correlate with lower risk of all-cause mortality.

Abstract Background Consumption of nuts improves cardio-metabolic risk factors in clinical trials and relates to lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in prospective observational studies. However, there has not been an adequately powered randomized controlled trial to test if nuts supplementation actually reduces incident CVD. In order to establish the feasibility of such a trial, the current study aimed to assess the acceptability and adherence to long-term nut supplementation amongst individuals at high CVD risk in China. Methods This protocol described a 6-month trial performed in Ningxia Province in China among participants with a history of CVD or older age (female ≥65 years, male ≥60 years) with multiple CVD risk factors. Participants were randomized to control (received non-edible gift), low dose walnut (30 g/d), or high dose walnut (60 g/d) groups in a 1:1:1 ratio. Walnuts were provided at no cost to participants and could be consumed according to personal preferences. Follow-up visits were scheduled at 2 weeks, 3 months and 6 months. The primary outcome was fasting plasma alpha linolenic acid (ALA) levels used as an indicator of walnut consumption. Secondary outcomes included self-reported walnut intake from the 24 h dietary recalls. The target sample size of 210 provided 90% statistical power with two-sided alpha of 0.05 to detect a mean difference of 0.12% (as percent of total fatty acid) in plasma ALA between randomized groups. Results Two hundred and ten participants were recruited and randomized during October 2019. Mean age of participants was 65 years (SD = 7.3), 47% were females, and 94% had a history of CVD at baseline. Across the three study groups, participants had similar baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. Discussion This trial will quantify acceptability and adherence to long-term walnut supplementation in a Chinese population at high risk of CVD. The findings will support the design of a future large trial to test the effect of walnut supplementation for CVD prevention. Trial registration NCT04037943 Protocol version: v3.0 August 14 2019

Summary: Background: The workplace offers a unique opportunity for effective health promotion. We aimed to comprehensively study the effectiveness of multicomponent worksite wellness programmes for improving diet and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: We did a systematic literature review and meta-analysis, following PRISMA guidelines. We searched PubMed-MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Education Resources Information Center, from Jan 1, 1990, to June 30, 2020, for studies with controlled evaluation designs that assessed multicomponent workplace wellness programmes. Investigators independently appraised the evidence and extracted the data. Outcomes were dietary factors, anthropometric measures, and cardiometabolic risk factors. Pooled effects were calculated by inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis. Potential sources of heterogeneity and study biases were evaluated. Findings: From 10 169 abstracts reviewed, 121 studies (82 [68%] randomised controlled trials and 39 [32%] quasi-experimental interventions) met the eligibility criteria. Most studies were done in North America (57 [47%]), and Europe, Australia, or New Zealand (36 [30%]). The median number of participants was 413·0 (IQR 124·0–904·0), and median duration of intervention was 9·0 months (4·5–18·0). Workplace wellness programmes improved fruit and vegetable consumption (0·27 servings per day [95% CI 0·16 to 0·37]), fruit consumption (0·20 servings per day [0·11 to 0·28]), body-mass index (–0·22 kg/m2 [–0·28 to –0·17]), waist circumference (–1·47 cm [–1·96 to –0·98]), systolic blood pressure (–2·03 mm Hg [–3·16 to –0·89]), and LDL cholesterol (–5·18 mg/dL [–7·83 to –2·53]), and to a lesser extent improved total fat intake (–1·18% of daily energy intake [–1·78 to –0·58]), saturated fat intake (–0·70% of daily energy [–1·22 to –0·18]), bodyweight (–0·92 kg [–1·11 to –0·72]), diastolic blood pressure (–1·11 mm Hg [–1·78 to –0·44]), fasting blood glucose (–1·81 mg/dL [–3·33 to –0·28]), HDL cholesterol (1·11 mg/dL [0·48 to 1·74]), and triglycerides (–5·38 mg/dL [–9·18 to –1·59]). No significant benefits were observed for intake of vegetables (0·03 servings per day [95% CI –0·04 to 0·10]), fibre (0·26 g per day [–0·15 to 0·67]), polyunsaturated fat (–0·23% of daily energy [–0·59 to 0·13]), or for body fat (–0·80% [–1·80 to 0·21]), waist-to-hip ratio (–0·00 ratio [–0·01 to 0·00]), or lean mass (1·01 kg [–0·82 to 2·83]). Heterogeneity values ranged from 46·9% to 91·5%. Between-study differences in outcomes were not significantly explained by study design, location, population, or similar factors in heterogeneity analyses. Interpretation: Workplace wellness programmes are associated with improvements in specific dietary, anthropometric, and cardiometabolic risk indicators. The heterogeneity identified in study designs and results should be considered when using these programmes as strategies to improve cardiometabolic health. Funding: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Abstract Background The aim of the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey was to assess nutritional intake, health status and various behaviors in a representative sample of the Greek population. Methods Data collection took place from 01.09.2013 to 31.05.2015. Random stratified sampling was performed by (a) geographical density criteria of Greece (7 regions), (b) age group of the reference population ( 65 years) and (c) gender distribution. The final population enrolled included (throughout Greece), 4574 individuals (42.5% men; 57.5% women of who 47.2% were from Athens metropolitan area, 18.5% from Central Macedonia, and the remaining 34% almost equally scattered throughout the country (p for the comparisons with official statistics by region, age group and sex > 0.7). Questionnaires developed were based on extensive review of the literature, following a validation procedure when necessary. Results Preliminary analyses revealed that 32% of the adult population were overweight and 15.5% were obese, with significant gender differences in total and per age group (p

Background: Evidence points to adverse effects of trans fatty acids (TFA) on health. The aim of this study was to estimate total TFA intake, evaluate major food contributors and its effect on dyslipidemia. Methods: A total of 3537 adults (48.3% males) were included. Total TFA intake was assessed using two 24-hour dietary recalls. Foods were categorized into specific food groups. Adjusted Logistic Regression analysis was performed to assess the likelihood of dyslipidemia by tertile of TFA aand Saturated Fatty Acid (SFA) level. Results: Median TFA intake was 0.53% of energy (from 0.34 to 0.81) ranging from 0.27 (Q1) to 0.95 (Q3) (p < 0.001, for trend), and 16% of individuals consumed TFA above 1% of their total energy. Cheese was the main contributor to TFA intake, with processed/refined grains and fried fish following. The latter was the main contributor in older adults (51+ years). Adjusted logistic regression analysis showed that individuals at the highest tertile of trans consumption were 30% more likely to have dyslipidemia compared to the lowest (OR(Q⁢3-Q⁢1): 1.3; 95% CI: 1.02–1.66 and OR(Q⁢2-Q⁢1): 1.3; 95% CI:1.01–1.66, respectively). This increased by 10% when stratified by SFA intake (OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.061–1.942) and remained significant only in individuals at the highest tertile and with higher than recommended SFA intake. Conclusions: A high intake of TFA combined with high SFA intakes further increase the likelihood of dyslipidemia and should be accounted for in public health prevention programs. Monitoring and evaluation of the recent EU legislative measures on TFA levels in foods is also necessary.

BACKGROUND Risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) hospitalization is robustly linked to cardiometabolic health. We estimated the absolute and proportional COVID‐19 hospitalizations in US adults attributable to 4 major US cardiometabolic conditions, separately and jointly, and by race/ethnicity, age, and sex. METHODS AND RESULTS We used the best available estimates of independent associations of cardiometabolic conditions with a risk of COVID‐19 hospitalization; nationally representative data on cardiometabolic conditions from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2015 to 2018; and US COVID‐19 hospitalizations stratified by age, sex, and race/ethnicity from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Coronavirus Disease 2019–Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network database and from the COVID Tracking Project to estimate the numbers and proportions of COVID‐19 hospitalizations attributable to diabetes mellitus, obesity, hypertension, and heart failure. Inputs were combined in a comparative risk assessment framework, with probabilistic sensitivity analyses and 1000 Monte Carlo simulations to jointly incorporate stratum‐specific uncertainties in data inputs. As of November 18, 2020, an estimated 906 849 COVID‐19 hospitalizations occurred in US adults. Of these, an estimated 20.5% (95% uncertainty interval [UIs], 18.9–22.1) of COVID‐19 hospitalizations were attributable to diabetes mellitus, 30.2% (UI, 28.2–32.3) to total obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2), 26.2% (UI, 24.3–28.3) to hypertension, and 11.7% (UI, 9.5–14.1) to heart failure. Considered jointly, 63.5% (UI, 61.6–65.4) or 575 419 (UI, 559 072–593 412) of COVID‐19 hospitalizations were attributable to these 4 conditions. Large differences were seen in proportions of cardiometabolic risk–attributable COVID‐19 hospitalizations by age and race/ethnicity, with smaller differences by sex. CONCLUSIONS A substantial proportion of US COVID‐19 hospitalizations appear attributable to major cardiometabolic conditions. These results can help inform public health prevention strategies to reduce COVID‐19 healthcare burdens.

Background We aimed to systematically identify, standardise and disseminate individual-level dietary intake surveys from up to 207 countries for 54 foods, beverages and nutrients, including subnational intakes by age, sex, education and urban/rural residence, from 1980 to 2015.Methods Between 2008–2011 and 2014–2020, the Global Dietary Database (GDD) project systematically searched for surveys assessing individual-level intake worldwide. We prioritised nationally or subnationally representative surveys using 24-hour recalls, Food-Frequency Questionnaires or short standardised questionnaires. Data were retrieved from websites or corresponding members as individual-level food group microdata or aggregate stratum-level data. Standardisation included quality assessment; data cleaning; categorising of foods and nutrients and their units; aggregation by demographic strata and energy adjustment.Results We standardised and incorporated 1220 surveys into the final GDD 2017 database, together represented 188 countries and 99.0% of the world’s population in 2015. 72.1% were nationally, 17.0% subnationally, and 10.9% community-level representative. 41.2% used Food-Frequency Questionnaires; 23.4%, 24-hour recalls; 15.8%, Demographic Health Survey questionnaires; 13.1%, biomarkers and 6.4%, household surveys. 73.9% of surveys included data on children; 52.2%, by urban and rural residence; and 30.2%, by education. Most surveys were in high-income countries, followed by sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Most commonly ascertained foods were fruits (N=803 surveys), non-starchy vegetables (N=787) and sugar-sweetened beverages (N=440); and nutrients, sodium (N=343), energy (N=256), calcium (N=224) and fibre (N=200). Least available data were on iodine, vitamin A, plant protein, selenium, added sugar and animal protein.Conclusions This systematic search, retrieval and standardised effort provides the most comprehensive empirical evidence on dietary intakes across and within countries worldwide.

Colonial policies and practices have introduced significant health challenges for Indigenous populations in commonwealth countries. Health systems and models of care were shaped for dominant society, and were not contextualised for Indigenous communities nor with provision of Indigenous cultural approaches to maintain health and wellness. Shifts to support Indigenous health outcomes have been challenged by debate on identifying which system and service components are to be included, implementation approaches, the lack of contextualised evaluation of implemented models to justify financial investments, but most importantly lack of effort in ensuring equity and participation by affected communities to uphold Indigenous rights to health. Prioritising the involvement, collaboration and empowerment of Indigenous communities and leadership are critical to successful transformation of healthcare in Indigenous communities. Locally determined priorities and solutions can be enacted to meet community and individual needs, and advance health attainment. In this paper, existing successful and sustainable models that demonstrate the empowerment of Indigenous peoples and communities in advocating for, designing, delivering and leading health and wellness supports are shared.

BackgroundDe novo lipogenesis (DNL) is the primary metabolic pathway synthesizing fatty acids from carbohydrates, protein, or alcohol. Our aim was to examine associations of in vivo levels of selected fatty acids (16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, 18:1n9) in DNL with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D).Methods and findingsSeventeen cohorts from 12 countries (7 from Europe, 7 from the United States, 1 from Australia, 1 from Taiwan; baseline years = 1970-1973 to 2006-2010) conducted harmonized individual-level analyses of associations of DNL-related fatty acids with incident T2D. In total, we evaluated 65,225 participants (mean ages = 52.3-75.5 years; % women = 20.4%-62.3% in 12 cohorts recruiting both sexes) and 15,383 incident cases of T2D over the 9-year follow-up on average. Cohort-specific association of each of 16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, and 18:1n9 with incident T2D was estimated, adjusted for demographic factors, socioeconomic characteristics, alcohol, smoking, physical activity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, menopausal status, and adiposity. Cohort-specific associations were meta-analyzed with an inverse-variance-weighted approach. Each of the 4 fatty acids positively related to incident T2D. Relative risks (RRs) per cohort-specific range between midpoints of the top and bottom quintiles of fatty acid concentrations were 1.53 (1.41-1.66; p < 0.001) for 16:0, 1.40 (1.33-1.48; p < 0.001) for 16:1n-7, 1.14 (1.05-1.22; p = 0.001) for 18:0, and 1.16 (1.07-1.25; p < 0.001) for 18:1n9. Heterogeneity was seen across cohorts (I2 = 51.1%-73.1% for each fatty acid) but not explained by lipid fractions and global geographical regions. Further adjusted for triglycerides (and 16:0 when appropriate) to evaluate associations independent of overall DNL, the associations remained significant for 16:0, 16:1n7, and 18:0 but were attenuated for 18:1n9 (RR = 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.94-1.13). These findings had limitations in potential reverse causation and residual confounding by imprecisely measured or unmeasured factors.ConclusionsConcentrations of fatty acids in the DNL were positively associated with T2D incidence. Our findings support further work to investigate a possible role of DNL and individual fatty acids in the development of T2D.

Healthier carbohydrate (carb)-rich foods are essential for health, but practical, validated indices for their identification are not established. We compared four pragmatic metrics, based on, per 10g of carb:(a) ≥1g fiber (10:1 carb:fiber), (b) ≥1g fiber and

BackgroundPoor diet is a leading risk factor for cardiometabolic disease (CMD) in the United States, but its economic costs are unknown. We sought to estimate the cost associated with suboptimal diet in the US.Methods and findingsA validated microsimulation model (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends [CVD PREDICT]) was used to estimate annual cardiovascular disease (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, angina, and stroke) and type 2 diabetes costs associated with suboptimal intake of 10 food groups (fruits, vegetables, nuts/seeds, whole grains, unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, polyunsaturated fats, seafood omega-3 fats, sodium). A representative US population sample of individuals aged 35-85 years was created using weighted sampling from National Health And Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 2009-2012 cycles. Estimates were stratified by cost type (acute, chronic, drug), sex, age, race, education, BMI, and health insurance. Annual diet-related CMD costs were $301/person (95% CI $287-$316). This translates to $50.4 billion in CMD costs (18.2% of total) for the whole population, of which 84.3% are attributed to acute care ($42.6 billion). The largest annual per capita costs are attributed to low consumption of nuts/seeds ($81; 95% CI $74-$86) and seafood omega-3 fats ($76; 95% CI $70-$83), and the lowest are attributed to high consumption of red meat ($3; 95% CI $2.8-$3.5) and polyunsaturated fats ($20; 95% CI $19-$22). Individual costs are highest for men ($380), those aged ≥65 years ($408), blacks ($320), the less educated ($392), and those with Medicare ($481) or dual-eligible ($536) insurance coverage. A limitation of our study is that dietary intake data were assessed from 24-hour dietary recall, which may not fully capture a diet over a person's life span and is subject to measurement errors.ConclusionsSuboptimal diet of 10 dietary factors accounts for 18.2% of all ischemic heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes costs in the US, highlighting that timely implementation of diet policies could address these health and economic burdens.

Abstract Background Fiscal interventions are promising strategies to improve diets, reduce cardiovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic diseases; CMD), and address health disparities. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of specific dietary taxes and subsidies on CMD deaths and disparities in the US. Methods Using nationally representative data, we used a comparative risk assessment to model the potential effects on total CMD deaths and disparities of price subsidies (10%, 30%) on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and nuts/seeds and taxes (10%, 30%) on processed meat, unprocessed red meats, and sugar-sweetened beverages. We modeled two gradients of price-responsiveness by education, an indicator of socioeconomic status (SES), based on global price elasticities (18% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES) and recent national experiences with taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (65% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES). Results Each price intervention would reduce CMD deaths. Overall, the largest proportional reductions were seen in stroke, followed by diabetes and coronary heart disease. Jointly altering prices of all seven dietary factors (10% each, with 18% greater price-responsiveness by SES) would prevent 23,174 (95% UI 22,024–24,595) CMD deaths/year, corresponding to 3.1% (95% UI 2.9–3.4) of CMD deaths among Americans with a lower than high school education, 3.6% (95% UI 3.3–3.8) among high school graduates/some college, and 2.9% (95% UI 2.7–3.5) among college graduates. Applying a 30% price change and larger price-responsiveness (65%) in low SES, the corresponding reductions were 10.9% (95% UI 9.2–10.8), 9.8% (95% UI 9.1–10.4), and 6.7% (95% UI 6.2–7.6). The latter scenario would reduce disparities in CMD between Americans with lower than high school versus a college education by 3.5 (95% UI 2.3–4.5) percentage points. Conclusions Modest taxes and subsidies for key dietary factors could meaningfully reduce CMD and improve US disparities.

Sugar intake has been associated with increased prevalence of childhood overweight/obesity; however, results remain controversial. The aim of this study was to examine the probability of overweight/obesity with higher sugar intakes, accounting for other dietary intakes. Data from 1165 children and adolescents aged ≥2–18 years (66.8% males) enrolled in the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS) were used; specifically, 781 children aged 2–11 years and 384 adolescents 12–18 years. Total and added sugar intake were assessed using two 24 h recalls (24 hR). Foods were categorized into specific food groups to evaluate the main foods contributing to intakes. A significant proportion of children (18.7%) and adolescents (24.5%) exceeded the recommended cut-off of 10% of total energy intake from added sugars. Sweets (29.8%) and processed/refined grains and cereals (19.1%) were the main sources of added sugars in both age groups, while in adolescents, the third main contributor was sugar-sweetened beverages (20.6%). Being overweight or obese was 2.57 (p = 0.002) and 1.77 (p = 0.047) times more likely for intakes ≥10% of total energy from added sugars compared to less

BackgroundEconomic incentives through health insurance may promote healthier behaviors. Little is known about health and economic impacts of incentivizing diet, a leading risk factor for diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD), through Medicare and Medicaid.Methods and findingsA validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT) estimated CVD and diabetes cases prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), health-related costs (formal healthcare, informal healthcare, and lost-productivity costs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of two policy scenarios for adults within Medicare and Medicaid, compared to a base case of no new intervention: (1) 30% subsidy on fruits and vegetables ("F&V incentive") and (2) 30% subsidy on broader healthful foods including F&V, whole grains, nuts/seeds, seafood, and plant oils ("healthy food incentive"). Inputs included national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2014, policy effects and diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Overall, 82 million adults (35-80 years old) were on Medicare and/or Medicaid. The mean (SD) age was 68.1 (11.4) years, 56.2% were female, and 25.5% were non-whites. Health and cost impacts were simulated over the lifetime of current Medicare and Medicaid participants (average simulated years = 18.3 years). The F&V incentive was estimated to prevent 1.93 million CVD events, gain 4.64 million QALYs, and save $39.7 billion in formal healthcare costs. For the healthy food incentive, corresponding gains were 3.28 million CVD and 0.12 million diabetes cases prevented, 8.40 million QALYs gained, and $100.2 billion in formal healthcare costs saved, respectively. From a healthcare perspective, both scenarios were cost-effective at 5 years and beyond, with lifetime ICERs of $18,184/QALY (F&V incentive) and $13,194/QALY (healthy food incentive). From a societal perspective including informal healthcare costs and lost productivity, respective ICERs were $14,576/QALY and $9,497/QALY. Results were robust in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and a range of one-way sensitivity and subgroup analyses, including by different durations of the intervention (5, 10, and 20 years and lifetime), food subsidy levels (20%, 50%), insurance groups (Medicare, Medicaid, and dual-eligible), and beneficiary characteristics within each insurance group (age, race/ethnicity, education, income, and Supplemental Nutrition Assistant Program [SNAP] status). Simulation studies such as this one provide quantitative estimates of benefits and uncertainty but cannot directly prove health and economic impacts.ConclusionsEconomic incentives for healthier foods through Medicare and Medicaid could generate substantial health gains and be highly cost-effective.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0124845.].

BackgroundWe aimed to investigate prospective associations of circulating or adipose tissue odd-chain fatty acids 15:0 and 17:0 and trans-palmitoleic acid, t16:1n-7, as potential biomarkers of dairy fat intake, with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D).Methods and findingsSixteen prospective cohorts from 12 countries (7 from the United States, 7 from Europe, 1 from Australia, 1 from Taiwan) performed new harmonised individual-level analysis for the prospective associations according to a standardised plan. In total, 63,682 participants with a broad range of baseline ages and BMIs and 15,180 incident cases of T2D over the average of 9 years of follow-up were evaluated. Study-specific results were pooled using inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. Prespecified interactions by age, sex, BMI, and race/ethnicity were explored in each cohort and were meta-analysed. Potential heterogeneity by cohort-specific characteristics (regions, lipid compartments used for fatty acid assays) was assessed with metaregression. After adjustment for potential confounders, including measures of adiposity (BMI, waist circumference) and lipogenesis (levels of palmitate, triglycerides), higher levels of 15:0, 17:0, and t16:1n-7 were associated with lower incidence of T2D. In the most adjusted model, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for incident T2D per cohort-specific 10th to 90th percentile range of 15:0 was 0.80 (0.73-0.87); of 17:0, 0.65 (0.59-0.72); of t16:1n7, 0.82 (0.70-0.96); and of their sum, 0.71 (0.63-0.79). In exploratory analyses, similar associations for 15:0, 17:0, and the sum of all three fatty acids were present in both genders but stronger in women than in men (pinteraction < 0.001). Whereas studying associations with biomarkers has several advantages, as limitations, the biomarkers do not distinguish between different food sources of dairy fat (e.g., cheese, yogurt, milk), and residual confounding by unmeasured or imprecisely measured confounders may exist.ConclusionsIn a large meta-analysis that pooled the findings from 16 prospective cohort studies, higher levels of 15:0, 17:0, and t16:1n-7 were associated with a lower risk of T2D.

BACKGROUND:The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) provides approximately US$70 billion annually to support food purchases by low-income households, supporting approximately 1 in 7 Americans. In the 2018 Farm Bill, potential SNAP revisions to improve diets and health could include financial incentives, disincentives, or restrictions for certain foods. However, the overall and comparative impacts on health outcomes and costs are not established. We aimed to estimate the health impact, program and healthcare costs, and cost-effectiveness of food incentives, disincentives, or restrictions in SNAP. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We used a validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT), populated with national data on adult SNAP participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2014, policy effects from SNAP pilots and food pricing meta-analyses, diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy, food, and healthcare costs from published literature to estimate the overall and comparative impacts of 3 dietary policy interventions: (1) a 30% incentive for fruits and vegetables (F&V), (2) a 30% F&V incentive with a restriction of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and (3) a broader incentive/disincentive program for multiple foods that also preserves choice (SNAP-plus), combining 30% incentives for F&V, nuts, whole grains, fish, and plant-based oils and 30% disincentives for SSBs, junk food, and processed meats. Among approximately 14.5 million adults on SNAP at baseline with mean age 52 years, our simulation estimates that the F&V incentive over 5 years would prevent 38,782 cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, gain 18,928 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and save $1.21 billion in healthcare costs. Adding SSB restriction increased gains to 93,933 CVD events prevented, 45,864 QALYs gained, and $4.33 billion saved. For SNAP-plus, corresponding gains were 116,875 CVD events prevented, 56,056 QALYs gained, and $5.28 billion saved. Over a lifetime, the F&V incentive would prevent approximately 303,900 CVD events, gain 649,000 QALYs, and save $6.77 billion in healthcare costs. Adding SSB restriction increased gains to approximately 797,900 CVD events prevented, 2.11 million QALYs gained, and $39.16 billion in healthcare costs saved. For SNAP-plus, corresponding gains were approximately 940,000 CVD events prevented, 2.47 million QALYs gained, and $41.93 billion saved. From a societal perspective (including programmatic costs but excluding food subsidy costs as an intra-societal transfer), all 3 scenarios were cost-saving. From a government affordability perspective (i.e., incorporating food subsidy costs, including for children and young adults for whom no health gains were modeled), the F&V incentive was of low cost-effectiveness at 5 years (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $548,053/QALY) but achieved cost-effectiveness ($66,525/QALY) over a lifetime. Adding SSB restriction, the intervention was cost-effective at 10 years ($68,857/QALY) and very cost-effective at 20 years ($26,435/QALY) and over a lifetime ($5,216/QALY). The combined incentive/disincentive program produced the largest health gains and reduced both healthcare and food costs, with net cost-savings of $10.16 billion at 5 years and $63.33 billion over a lifetime. Results were consistent in probabilistic sensitivity analyses: for example, from a societal perspective, 1,000 of 1,000 iterations (100%) were cost-saving for all 3 interventions. Due to the nature of simulation studies, the findings cannot prove the health and cost impacts of national SNAP interventions. CONCLUSIONS:Leveraging healthier eating through SNAP could generate substantial health benefits and be cost-effective or cost-saving. A combined food incentive/disincentive program appears most effective and may be most attractive to policy-makers.

Hypertension is a major risk of cardiovascular diseases. This study’s aim was to examine associations between hypertension and a priori known lifestyle risk factors, including weight status and Mediterranean diet adherence. The study included a representative sample of the adult population (N = 3775 (40.8% males)), from the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS), which took place from September 2013 to May 2015. Demographic and anthropometric data were collected using validated questionnaires, and blood pressure (BP) measurements were performed for the two main metropolitan areas (N = 1040; 41.1%). Hypertension diagnosis was according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) guidelines. Weighted proportions, extended Mantel−Haenszel (M−H) analyses, and multiple logistic regressions (for the survey data) were performed. Mean systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) were 118.6 mmHg and 72.2 mmHg respectively, with both values being higher in males compared to females in all age groups (p < 0.001). Study participants with hyperlipidemia or diabetes, and those overweight, were almost twice as likely to be hypertensives, with the odds increasing to 4 for those obese (p for all, < 0.05). Stricter Mediterranean diet adherence significantly decreased the likelihood of hypertension by 36% (OR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.439, 0.943), and a significant interaction was found between Mediterranean diet adherence and weight status on hypertension. The presence of hypertension is clustered with comorbidities, but is significantly associated with modifiable risk factors, including Mediterranean diet and weight status, underlining the need for personalized medical nutritional treatment.

BackgroundSodium consumption is a modifiable risk factor for higher blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed voluntary sodium reduction goals targeting processed and commercially prepared foods. We aimed to quantify the potential health and economic impact of this policy.Methods and findingsWe used a microsimulation approach of a close-to-reality synthetic population (US IMPACT Food Policy Model) to estimate CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness from 2017 to 2036 of 3 scenarios: (1) optimal, 100% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; (2) modest, 50% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; and (3) pessimistic, 100% compliance with 2-year reformulation targets, but with no further progress. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and high-quality meta-analyses to inform model inputs. Costs included government costs to administer and monitor the policy, industry reformulation costs, and CVD-related healthcare, productivity, and informal care costs. Between 2017 and 2036, the optimal reformulation scenario achieving the FDA sodium reduction targets could prevent approximately 450,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty interval: 240,000 to 740,000), gain approximately 2.1 million discounted QALYs (1.7 million to 2.4 million), and produce discounted cost savings (health savings minus policy costs) of approximately $41 billion ($14 billion to $81 billion). In the modest and pessimistic scenarios, health gains would be 1.1 million and 0.7 million QALYS, with savings of $19 billion and $12 billion, respectively. All the scenarios were estimated with more than 80% probability to be cost-effective (incremental cost/QALY < $100,000) by 2021 and to become cost-saving by 2031. Limitations include evaluating only diseases mediated through BP, while decreasing sodium consumption could have beneficial effects upon other health burdens such as gastric cancer. Further, the effect estimates in the model are based on interventional and prospective observational studies. They are therefore subject to biases and confounding that may have influenced also our model estimates.ConclusionsImplementing and achieving the FDA sodium reformulation targets could generate substantial health gains and net cost savings.

BACKGROUND:Promising school policies to improve children's diets include providing fresh fruits and vegetables (F&V) and competitive food restrictions on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), yet the impact of national implementation of these policies in US schools on cardiometabolic disease (CMD) risk factors and outcomes is not known. Our objective was to estimate the impact of national implementation of F&V provision and SSB restriction in US elementary, middle, and high schools on dietary intake and body mass index (BMI) in children and future CMD mortality. METHODS:We used comparative risk assessment (CRA) frameworks to model the impacts of these policies with input parameters from nationally representative surveys, randomized-controlled trials, and systematic reviews and meta-analyses. For children ages 5-18 years, this incorporated national data on current dietary intakes and BMI, impacts of these policies on diet, and estimated effects of dietary changes on BMI. In adults ages 25 and older, we further incorporated the sustainability of dietary changes to adulthood, effects of dietary changes on CMD, and national CMD death statistics, modeling effects if these policies had been in place when current US adults were children. Uncertainty across inputs was incorporated using 1000 Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS:National F&V provision would increase daily fruit intake in children by as much as 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 15.4, 37.7%), and would have small effects on vegetable intake. SSB restriction would decrease daily SSB intake by as much as 26.5% (95% UI: 6.4, 46.4%), and reduce BMI by as much as 0.7% (95% UI: 0.2, 1.2%). If F&V provision and SSB restriction were nationally implemented, an estimated 22,383 CMD deaths/year (95% UI: 18735, 25930) would be averted. CONCLUSION:National school F&V provision and SSB restriction policies implemented in elementary, middle, and high schools could improve diet and BMI in children and reduce CMD mortality later in life.

BACKGROUND:Accurate national information on dietary intakes, including heterogeneity among individuals, is critical to inform health implications and policy priorities. In low- and middle-income countries, household expenditure surveys constitute the major source of food data, but with uncertain validity for individual-level intakes. OBJECTIVE:To investigate how individualized dietary consumption estimated from household survey data compared with individual-level 24-hr dietary recalls (24hR); and to assess potential heterogeneity by method for individualizing household intakes, dietary indicator, and individual characteristics (age, sex, education, religion, household income). METHODS:We evaluated data from the 2011-2012 Bangladesh Household Integrated Survey (BIHS), which included household-level consumption data (5,503 households) and individual-level dietary data based on 24hR from these households (22,173 participants). Household and 24hR estimates were standardized and harmonized for 33 dietary indicators, including 9 food groups, total energy, 8 macronutrients, and 15 micronutrients. Individual consumption was estimated from household data using two approaches, the Adult Male Equivalent (AME) and per capita (PC) approach. For each dietary indicator, differences in household vs. individual mean estimates were evaluated overall and by strata of individual characteristics, using Spearman's correlations and univariate and multivariate linear regression models. RESULTS:Individualized household estimates overestimated individual intakes from 24hR for all dietary factors using either estimation method (P

School food environment policies may be a critical tool to promote healthy diets in children, yet their effectiveness remains unclear.To systematically review and quantify the impact of school food environment policies on dietary habits, adiposity, and metabolic risk in children.We systematically searched online databases for randomized or quasi-experimental interventions assessing effects of school food environment policies on children's dietary habits, adiposity, or metabolic risk factors. Data were extracted independently and in duplicate, and pooled using inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis. Habitual (within+outside school) dietary intakes were the primary outcome. Heterogeneity was explored using meta-regression and subgroup analysis. Funnel plots, Begg's and Egger's test evaluated potential publication bias.From 6,636 abstracts, 91 interventions (55 in US/Canada, 36 in Europe/New Zealand) were included, on direct provision of healthful foods/beverages (N = 39 studies), competitive food/beverage standards (N = 29), and school meal standards (N = 39) (some interventions assessed multiple policies). Direct provision policies, which largely targeted fruits and vegetables, increased consumption of fruits by 0.27 servings/d (n = 15 estimates (95%CI: 0.17, 0.36)) and combined fruits and vegetables by 0.28 servings/d (n = 16 (0.17, 0.40)); with a slight impact on vegetables (n = 11; 0.04 (0.01, 0.08)), and no effects on total calories (n = 6; -56 kcal/d (-174, 62)). In interventions targeting water, habitual intake was unchanged (n = 3; 0.33 glasses/d (-0.27, 0.93)). Competitive food/beverage standards reduced sugar-sweetened beverage intake by 0.18 servings/d (n = 3 (-0.31, -0.05)); and unhealthy snacks by 0.17 servings/d (n = 2 (-0.22, -0.13)), without effects on total calories (n = 5; -79 kcal/d (-179, 21)). School meal standards (mainly lunch) increased fruit intake (n = 2; 0.76 servings/d (0.37, 1.16)) and reduced total fat (-1.49%energy; n = 6 (-2.42, -0.57)), saturated fat (n = 4; -0.93%energy (-1.15, -0.70)) and sodium (n = 4; -170 mg/d (-242, -98)); but not total calories (n = 8; -38 kcal/d (-137, 62)). In 17 studies evaluating adiposity, significant decreases were generally not identified; few studies assessed metabolic factors (blood lipids/glucose/pressure), with mixed findings. Significant sources of heterogeneity or publication bias were not identified.Specific school food environment policies can improve targeted dietary behaviors; effects on adiposity and metabolic risk require further investigation. These findings inform ongoing policy discussions and debates on best practices to improve childhood dietary habits and health.

Large socio-economic disparities exist in US dietary habits and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. While economic incentives have demonstrated success in improving dietary choices, the quantitative impact of different dietary policies on CVD disparities is not well established. We aimed to quantify and compare the potential effects on total CVD mortality and disparities of specific dietary policies to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption and reduce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption in the US.Using the US IMPACT Food Policy Model and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, we estimated and compared the reductions in CVD mortality and socio-economic disparities in the US population potentially achievable from 2015 to 2030 with specific dietary policy scenarios: (a) a national mass media campaign (MMC) aimed to increase consumption of F&Vs and reduce consumption of SSBs, (b) a national fiscal policy to tax SSBs to increase prices by 10%, (c) a national fiscal policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 10%, and (d) a targeted policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 30% among Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants only. We also evaluated a combined policy approach, combining all of the above policies. Data sources included the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, National Vital Statistics System, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and published meta-analyses. Among the individual policy scenarios, a national 10% F&V subsidy was projected to be most beneficial, potentially resulting in approximately 150,500 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 141,400-158,500) CVD deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) by 2030 in the US. This far exceeds the approximately 35,100 (95% UI 31,700-37,500) DPPs potentially attributable to a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants, the approximately 25,800 (95% UI 24,300-28,500) DPPs for a 1-y MMC, or the approximately 31,000 (95% UI 26,800-35,300) DPPs for a 10% SSB tax. Neither the MMC nor the individual national economic policies would significantly reduce CVD socio-economic disparities. However, the SNAP-targeted intervention might potentially reduce CVD disparities between SNAP participants and SNAP-ineligible individuals, by approximately 8% (10 DPPs per 100,000 population). The combined policy approach might save more lives than any single policy studied (approximately 230,000 DPPs by 2030) while also significantly reducing disparities, by approximately 6% (7 DPPs per 100,000 population). Limitations include our effect estimates in the model; these estimates use interventional and prospective observational studies (not exclusively randomised controlled trials). They are thus imperfect and should be interpreted as the best available evidence. Another key limitation is that we considered only CVD outcomes; the policies we explored would undoubtedly have additional beneficial effects upon other diseases. Further, we did not model or compare the cost-effectiveness of each proposed policy.Fiscal strategies targeting diet might substantially reduce CVD burdens. A national 10% F&V subsidy would save by far the most lives, while a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants would most reduce socio-economic disparities. A combined policy would have the greatest overall impact on both mortality and socio-economic disparities.

BACKGROUND:Dietary habits are major contributors to coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. However, comprehensive evaluation of etiologic effects of dietary factors on cardiometabolic outcomes, their quantitative effects, and corresponding optimal intakes are not well-established. OBJECTIVE:To systematically review the evidence for effects of dietary factors on cardiometabolic diseases, including comprehensively assess evidence for causality; estimate magnitudes of etiologic effects; evaluate heterogeneity and potential for bias in these etiologic effects; and determine optimal population intake levels. METHODS:We utilized Bradford-Hill criteria to assess probable or convincing evidence for causal effects of multiple diet-cardiometabolic disease relationships. Etiologic effects were quantified from published or de novo meta-analyses of prospective studies or randomized clinical trials, incorporating standardized units, dose-response estimates, and heterogeneity by age and other characteristics. Potential for bias was assessed in validity analyses. Optimal intakes were determined by levels associated with lowest disease risk. RESULTS:We identified 10 foods and 7 nutrients with evidence for causal cardiometabolic effects, including protective effects of fruits, vegetables, beans/legumes, nuts/seeds, whole grains, fish, yogurt, fiber, seafood omega-3s, polyunsaturated fats, and potassium; and harms of unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, glycemic load, trans-fats, and sodium. Proportional etiologic effects declined with age, but did not generally vary by sex. Established optimal population intakes were generally consistent with observed national intakes and major dietary guidelines. In validity analyses, the identified effects of individual dietary components were similar to quantified effects of dietary patterns on cardiovascular risk factors and hard endpoints. CONCLUSIONS:These novel findings provide a comprehensive summary of causal evidence, quantitative etiologic effects, heterogeneity, and optimal intakes of major dietary factors for cardiometabolic diseases, informing disease impact estimation and policy planning and priorities.

Background: Gaps remain on the safety of egg intake on cardiovascular health, setting the study’s aim to investigate the association between quantity and frequency of egg consumption, with established dyslipidemia. Methods: Study participants (N = 3558, 40.3% males) included individuals from the Hellenic National and Nutrition Health Survey (HNNHS), of national representation. Quantity and frequency of egg consumption was determined. Minimally adjusted, multivariable logistic and linear analysis were used to assess egg consumption and dyslipidemia. Results: The more frequent egg consumption compared to no or rare egg consumption significantly decreased the odds of dyslipidemia in the minimally adjusted (Odds Ratio (OR) for frequency: 0.83; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.752, 0.904; OR for quantified frequency: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.796, 0.963) and the fully adjusted models (OR for frequency: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.718, 0.887; OR for quantified frequency: 0.85; 95%CI: 0.759, 0.945). Level of serum cholesterol and LDL-c were significantly lower with higher frequency and quantified frequency of egg consumption in all models. Conclusion: Eggs do not increase the risk of dyslipidemia and can be consumed as part of a healthy diet that is high in fiber and low in saturated fat, without excessive energy intake, by all individuals.

BackgroundEffects of major dietary macronutrients on glucose-insulin homeostasis remain controversial and may vary by the clinical measures examined. We aimed to assess how saturated fat (SFA), monounsaturated fat (MUFA), polyunsaturated fat (PUFA), and carbohydrate affect key metrics of glucose-insulin homeostasis.Methods and findingsWe systematically searched multiple databases (PubMed, EMBASE, OVID, BIOSIS, Web-of-Knowledge, CAB, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, SIGLE, Faculty1000) for randomised controlled feeding trials published by 26 Nov 2015 that tested effects of macronutrient intake on blood glucose, insulin, HbA1c, insulin sensitivity, and insulin secretion in adults aged ≥18 years. We excluded trials with non-isocaloric comparisons and trials providing dietary advice or supplements rather than meals. Studies were reviewed and data extracted independently in duplicate. Among 6,124 abstracts, 102 trials, including 239 diet arms and 4,220 adults, met eligibility requirements. Using multiple-treatment meta-regression, we estimated dose-response effects of isocaloric replacements between SFA, MUFA, PUFA, and carbohydrate, adjusted for protein, trans fat, and dietary fibre. Replacing 5% energy from carbohydrate with SFA had no significant effect on fasting glucose (+0.02 mmol/L, 95% CI = -0.01, +0.04; n trials = 99), but lowered fasting insulin (-1.1 pmol/L; -1.7, -0.5; n = 90). Replacing carbohydrate with MUFA lowered HbA1c (-0.09%; -0.12, -0.05; n = 23), 2 h post-challenge insulin (-20.3 pmol/L; -32.2, -8.4; n = 11), and homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) (-2.4%; -4.6, -0.3; n = 30). Replacing carbohydrate with PUFA significantly lowered HbA1c (-0.11%; -0.17, -0.05) and fasting insulin (-1.6 pmol/L; -2.8, -0.4). Replacing SFA with PUFA significantly lowered glucose, HbA1c, C-peptide, and HOMA. Based on gold-standard acute insulin response in ten trials, PUFA significantly improved insulin secretion capacity (+0.5 pmol/L/min; 0.2, 0.8) whether replacing carbohydrate, SFA, or even MUFA. No significant effects of any macronutrient replacements were observed for 2 h post-challenge glucose or insulin sensitivity (minimal-model index). Limitations included a small number of trials for some outcomes and potential issues of blinding, compliance, generalisability, heterogeneity due to unmeasured factors, and publication bias.ConclusionsThis meta-analysis of randomised controlled feeding trials provides evidence that dietary macronutrients have diverse effects on glucose-insulin homeostasis. In comparison to carbohydrate, SFA, or MUFA, most consistent favourable effects were seen with PUFA, which was linked to improved glycaemia, insulin resistance, and insulin secretion capacity.

BackgroundTrends in food availability and metabolic risk factors in Brazil suggest a shift toward unhealthy dietary patterns and increased cardiometabolic disease risk, yet little is known about the impact of dietary and metabolic risk factors on cardiometabolic mortality in Brazil.MethodsBased on data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we used comparative risk assessment to estimate the burden of 11 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors on mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in Brazil in 2010. Information on national diets and metabolic risks were obtained from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey, the Food and Agriculture Organization database, and large observational studies including Brazilian adults. Relative risks for each risk factor were obtained from meta-analyses of randomized trials or prospective cohort studies; and disease-specific mortality from the GBD 2010 database. We quantified uncertainty using probabilistic simulation analyses, incorporating uncertainty in dietary and metabolic data and relative risks by age and sex. Robustness of findings was evaluated by sensitivity to varying feasible optimal levels of each risk factor.ResultsIn 2010, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and suboptimal diet were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths in Brazil, responsible for 214,263 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 195,073 to 233,936) and 202,949 deaths (95% UI: 194,322 to 211,747), respectively. Among individual dietary factors, low intakes of fruits and whole grains and high intakes of sodium were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths. For premature cardiometabolic deaths (before age 70 years, representing 40% of cardiometabolic deaths), the leading risk factors were suboptimal diet (104,169 deaths; 95% UI: 99,964 to 108,002), high SBP (98,923 deaths; 95%UI: 92,912 to 104,609) and high body-mass index (BMI) (42,643 deaths; 95%UI: 40,161 to 45,111).Conclusionsuboptimal diet, high SBP, and high BMI are major causes of cardiometabolic death in Brazil, informing priorities for policy initiatives.

Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent estimates by the USDA for historical US nutrition and find very good agreement for 21 of 23 nutrients, though sodium and dietary fiber will require further improvement.

BackgroundSaturated fat (SFA), ω‐6 (n‐6) polyunsaturated fat (PUFA), and trans fat (TFA) influence risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but attributable CHD mortalities by country, age, sex, and time are unclear. Methods and ResultsNational intakes of SFA, n‐6 PUFA, and TFA were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical model based on country‐specific dietary surveys; food availability data; and, for TFA, industry reports on fats/oils and packaged foods. Etiologic effects of dietary fats on CHD mortality were derived from meta‐analyses of prospective cohorts and CHD mortality rates from the 2010 Global Burden of Diseases study. Absolute and proportional attributable CHD mortality were computed using a comparative risk assessment framework. In 2010, nonoptimal intakes of n‐6 PUFA, SFA, and TFA were estimated to result in 711 800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 680 700–745 000), 250 900 (95% UI 236 900–265 800), and 537 200 (95% UI 517 600–557 000) CHD deaths per year worldwide, accounting for 10.3% (95% UI 9.9%–10.6%), 3.6%, (95% UI 3.5%–3.6%) and 7.7% (95% UI 7.6%–7.9%) of global CHD mortality. Tropical oil–consuming countries were estimated to have the highest proportional n‐6 PUFA– and SFA‐attributable CHD mortality, whereas Egypt, Pakistan, and Canada were estimated to have the highest proportional TFA‐attributable CHD mortality. From 1990 to 2010 globally, the estimated proportional CHD mortality decreased by 9% for insufficient n‐6 PUFA and by 21% for higher SFA, whereas it increased by 4% for higher TFA, with the latter driven by increases in low‐ and middle‐income countries. ConclusionsNonoptimal intakes of n‐6 PUFA, TFA, and SFA each contribute to significant estimated CHD mortality, with important heterogeneity across countries that informs nation‐specific clinical, public health, and policy priorities.