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The Hamburg Aerosol Module version 2.3 (HAM2.3) from the ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3 global atmosphere-aerosol model is coupled to the recently developed icosahedral nonhydrostatic ICON-A (icon-aes-1.3.00) global atmosphere model to yield the new ICON-A-HAM2.3 atmosphere-aerosol model. The ICON-A and ECHAM6.3 host models use different dynamical cores, parameterizations of vertical mixing due to sub-grid scale turbulence, and parameter settings for radiation balance tuning. Here, we study the role of the different host models for simulated aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and evaluate impacts of using HAM2.3 and the ECHAM6-HAM2.3 two-moment cloud microphysics scheme on several meteorological variables. Sensitivity runs show that a positive AOT bias over the subtropical oceans is remedied in ICON-A-HAM2.3 because of a different default setting of a parameter in the moist convection parameterization of the host models. The global mean AOT is biased low compared to MODIS satellite instrument retrievals in ICON-A-HAM2.3 and ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3, but the bias is larger in ICON-A-HAM2.3 because negative AOT biases over the Amazon, the African rain forest, and the northern Indian Ocean are no longer compensated by high biases over the sub-tropical oceans. ICON-A-HAM2.3 shows a moderate improvement with respect to AOT observations at AERONET sites. A multivariable bias score combining biases of several meteorological variables into a single number is larger in ICON-A-HAM2.3 compared to standard ICON-A and standard ECHAM6.3. In the tropics, this multivariable bias is of similar magnitude in ICON-A-HAM2.3 and in ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3. In the extra-tropics, a smaller multivariable bias is found for ICON-A-HAM2.3 than for ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3., Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14 (4), ISSN:1942-2466

We introduce and evaluate the aerosol simulations with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3, which is the aerosol component of the fully coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ. Both the host atmospheric climate model ECHAM6.3 and the aerosol model HAM2.3 were updated from previous versions. The updated version of the HAM aerosol model contains improved parameterizations of aerosol processes such as cloud activation, as well as updated emission fields for anthropogenic aerosol species and modifications in the online computation of sea salt and mineral dust aerosol emissions. Aerosol results from nudged and free running simulations for the 10-year period 2003 to 2012 are compared to various measurements of aerosol properties. While there are regional deviations between model and observations, the model performs well overall in terms of aerosol optical thickness, but may underestimate coarse mode aerosol concentrations to some extent, so that the modeled particles are smaller than indicated by the observations. Sulfate aerosol measurements in the US and Europe are reproduced well by the model, while carbonaceous aerosol species are biased low. Both mineral dust and sea salt aerosol concentrations are improved compared to previous versions of ECHAM-HAM. The evaluation of the simulated aerosol distributions serves as a basis for the suitability of the model for simulating aerosol-climate interactions in a changing climate.

The chemistry-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ contains a detailed representation of tropospheric and stratospheric reactive chemistry and state-of-the-art parameterizations of aerosols using either a modal scheme (M7) or a bin scheme (SALSA). This article describes and evaluates the model version ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3-MOZ1.0 with a focus on the tropospheric gas-phase chemistry. A 10-year model simulation was performed to test the stability of the model and provide data for its evaluation. The comparison to observations concentrates on the year 2008 and includes total column observations of ozone and CO from IASI and OMI, Aura MLS observations of temperature, HNO3, ClO, and O3 for the evaluation of polar stratospheric processes, an ozonesonde climatology, surface ozone observations from the TOAR database, and surface CO data from the Global Atmosphere Watch network. Global budgets of ozone, OH, NOx, aerosols, clouds, and radiation are analyzed and compared to the literature. ECHAM-HAMMOZ performs well in many aspects. However, in the base simulation, lightning NOx emissions are very low, and the impact of the heterogeneous reaction of HNO3 on dust and sea salt aerosol is too strong. Sensitivity simulations with increased lightning NOx or modified heterogeneous chemistry deteriorate the comparison with observations and yield excessively large ozone budget terms and too much OH. We hypothesize that this is an impact of potential issues with tropical convection in the ECHAM model., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

This study analyzes a method to construct a homogeneous, high-resolution global atmospheric hindcast. The method is the spectral nudging technique which was applied to a state-of-the-art general circulation model (ECHAM6, T255L95). Large spatial scales of the global climate model prognostic variables were spectrally nudged towards a reanalysis data set (NCEP1, T62L28) for the last decades. The main idea is the addition of dynamically consistent regional weather details to the coarse grid NCEP1 reanalysis. A large number of sensitivity experiments were performed, using different nudging e-folding times, vertical profiles, wave numbers, and variables. Comparisons with observations and several reanalyses showed a high dependency on the variations of the nudging configuration. At the global scale, the accordance is very high for extra-tropical regions and lower in the tropics. A wave number truncation of 30, a relatively short e-folding time of 50 min and a plateau-shaped nudging profile applied only to divergence and vorticity generally yielded the best results. This is one of the first global spectral nudging hindcast studies and the first applying an altitude-dependent profile to selected prognostic variables. The method can be applied to reconstruct the history of extreme events such as intense storms in the context of ongoing climate change.

The new Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from 1850 to 2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency towards a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K-1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K-1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

The Max-Planck-Institute Aerosol Climatology version 1 (MAC-v1) is introduced. It describes the optical properties of tropospheric aerosols on monthly timescales and with global coverage at a spatial resolution of 1° in latitude and longitude. By providing aerosol radiative properties for any wavelength of the solar (or shortwave) and of the terrestrial (or longwave) radiation spectrum, as needed in radiative transfer applications, this MAC-v1 data set lends itself to simplified and computationally efficient representations of tropospheric aerosol in climate studies. Estimates of aerosol radiative properties are provided for both total and anthropogenic aerosol in annual time steps from preindustrial times (i.e., starting with year 1860) well into the future (until the year 2100). Central to the aerosol climatology is the merging of monthly statistics of aerosol optical properties for current (year 2000) conditions. Hereby locally sparse but trusted high-quality data by ground-based sun-photometer networks are merged onto complete background maps defined by central data from global modeling with complex aerosol modules. This merging yields 0.13 for the global annual midvisible aerosol optical depth (AOD), with 0.07 attributed to aerosol sizes larger than 1 µm in diameter and 0.06 of attributed to aerosol sizes smaller than 1 µm in diameter. Hereby larger particles are less absorbing with a single scattering albedo (SSA) of 0.98 compared to 0.93 for smaller sizes. Simulation results of a global model are applied to prescribe the vertical distribution and to estimate anthropogenic contributions to the smaller size AOD as a function of time, with a 0.037 value for current conditions. In a demonstration application, the associated aerosol direct radiative effects are determined. For current conditions, total aerosol is estimated to reduce the combined shortwave and longwave net-flux balance at the top of the atmosphere by about −1.6 W/m2 from which −0.5 W/m2 (with an uncertainty of ±0.2 W/m2) is attributed to anthropogenic activities. Based on past and projected aerosol emission data, the global anthropogenic direct aerosol impact (i.e., ToA cooling) is currently near the maximum and is projected to drop by 2100 to about −0.3 W/m2. The reported global averages are driven by considerable spatial and temporal variability. To better convey this diversity, regional and seasonal distributions of aerosol optical properties and their radiative effects are presented. On regional scales, the anthropogenic direct aerosol forcing can be an order of magnitude stronger than the global average and it can be of either sign. It is also shown that maximum anthropogenic impacts have shifted during the last 30 years from the U.S. and Europe to eastern and southern Asia.

The ECHAM6 atmospheric general circulation model is the atmosphere component of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) that is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. As ECHAM6 has its uppermost layer centered at 0.01 hPa in the upper mesosphere, these simulations offer the opportunity to study the middle atmosphere climate change and its relation to the troposphere on the basis of a very comprehensive set of state-of-the-art model simulations. The goals of this paper are (a) to introduce those new features of ECHAM6 particularly relevant for the middle atmosphere, including external forcing data, and (b) to evaluate the simulated middle atmosphere and describe the simulated response to natural and anthropogenic forcings. New features in ECHAM6 with respect to ECHAM5 include a new short-wave radiation scheme, the option to vary spectral irradiance independent of total solar irradiance, and a latitude-dependent gravity-wave source strength. The description of external forcing data focuses on solar irradiance and ozone. Stratospheric temperature trends simulated with the MPI-ESM for the last decades of the 20th century agree well with observations. The future projections depend strongly on the scenario. Under the high emission scenario RCP8.5, simulated temperatures are locally lower by more than 20 K than preindustrial values. Many of the simulated patterns of the responses to natural forcings as provided by solar variability, volcanic aerosols, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation, largely agree with the observations. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Atmospheric transport of traces gases and aerosols plays an important role in the distribution of air pollutants and radiatively active compounds. For model simulations of chemistry-climate interactions it is important to know how the transport of tracers depends on the geographical resolution of the general circulation model. However, this aspect has been scarcely investigated until now. Here, we analyse tracer transport in the ECHAM5 general circulation model using 6 independent idealized tracers with constant lifetimes, which are released in two different altitudes at the surface and in the stratosphere, respectively. Model resolutions from T21L19 to T106L31 were tested by performing multi-annual simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice fields of the 1990s. The impacts of the tracer lifetime were investigated by varying the globally uniform exponential decay time between 0.5 and 50 months. We also tested the influence of using prescribed meteorological fields (ERA40) instead of climatological sea surface temperature and sea ice fields. Meridional transport of surface tracers decreases in the coarse resolution model due to enhanced vertical mixing, with the exception of the advection into the tropical region, which shows an inconsistent trend between the resolutions. Whereas, the meridional transport of tracers released in the stratosphere was enhanced with higher model resolutions, except in the transport from tropical stratosphere to the Southern Hemisphere, which exhibits an increase trend with increasing model resolution. The idealized tracers exhibit a seasonal cycle, which is modulated by the tracer lifetime. In comparison to the run with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice fields, the simulation with prescribed meteorological fields did not exhibit significant change in the meridional transport, except in the exchange of stratospheric tracers between both hemispheres, where it causes about 100% increase. The import of the surface tracers into the stratosphere is increased by up to a factor of 2.5, and the export from the stratosphere into the troposphere was increased by up to 60% when prescribed meteorological fields is used. The ERA40 simulation also showed larger interannual variability (up to 24% compared to 12% in the standard simulations). Using our surface tracers released in either the northern or Southern Hemisphere, respectively, we calculate inter-hemispheric transport times between 11 and 17 months, consistent with values reported in the literature. While this study cannot be used to relate differences in model results to specific changes in transport processes, it nevertheless provides some insight into the characteristics of tracer transport in the widely used ECHAM5 general circulation model.

The first bridge diagrams of the classical theory of liquids are discussed for two fluids of Lennard-Jones spheres and for a fluid of a two-centre Lennard-Jones model of liquid bromine. The bridge diagram of liquid bromine is calculated using a biased Monte-Carlo method. We investigate the first bridge diagrams, the bonds of which are either Mayer functions f or total correlation functions h. The Mayer f-bond representation leads to very high values of the first bridge diagram, which can not be used alone in a truncated expansion of the diagrammatic series of the bridge function. We analyse the origin of these high values. In the case of the h-function representation, the bridge function series truncated to the sole first bridge diagram is introduced into the closure of the Ornstein-Zernike equation and leads to some improvement of the pair distribution function upon the HNC result, as compared to the exact simulated values.

International audience; Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, eighteen atmospheric models from the U.S., Europe, and Japan calculated present (2000) and future (2030) concentrations of ozone at the Earth's surface with hourly temporal resolution. Comparison of model results with surface ozone measurements in 14 world regions indicates that levels and seasonality of surface ozone in North America and Europe are characterized well by global models, with annual average biases typically within 5–10 nmol/mol. However, comparison with rather sparse observations over some regions suggest that most models overestimate annual ozone by 15–20 nmol/mol in some locations. Two scenarios from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and one from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) have been implemented in the models. This study focuses on changes in near-surface ozone and their effects on human health and vegetation. Different indices and air quality standards are used to characterise air quality. We show that often the calculated changes in the different indices are closely inter-related. Indices using lower thresholds are more consistent between the models, and are recommended for global model analysis. Our analysis indicates that currently about two-thirds of the regions considered do not meet health air quality standards, whereas only 2–4 regions remain below the threshold. Calculated air quality exceedances show moderate deterioration by 2030 if current emissions legislation is followed and slight improvements if current emissions reduction technology is used optimally. For the "business as usual" scenario severe air quality problems are predicted. We show that model simulations of air quality indices are particularly sensitive to how well ozone is represented, and improved accuracy is needed for future projections. Additional measurements are needed to allow a more quantitative assessment of the risks to human health and vegetation from changing levels of surface ozone.

We investigate the influence of African biomass burning, biogenic, lightning and anthropogenic emissions on the tropospheric ozone over Africa and globally using a coupled global chemistry climate model. Our model studies indicate that surface ozone concentration may rise by up to 50 ppbv in the burning region during the biomass burning seasons. Biogenic emissions yield between 5–30 ppbv increase in the near surface ozone concentration over tropical Africa. The impact of lightning on surface ozone is negligible, while anthropogenic emissions yield a maximum of 7 ppbv increase in the annual-mean surface ozone concentration over Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt. Our results show that biogenic emissions are the most important African emission source affecting total tropospheric ozone. The influence of each of the African emissions on the global tropospheric ozone burden (TOB) of 384 Tg yields about 9.5 Tg, 19.6 Tg, 9.0 Tg and 4.7 Tg for biomass burning, biogenic, lightning and anthropogenic emissions emitted in Africa respectively. The impact of each of these emission categories on African TOB of 33 Tg is 2.5 Tg, 4.1 Tg, 1.75 Tg and 0.89 Tg respectively, which together represents about 28% of the total TOB calculated over Africa. Our model calculations also suggest that more than 70% of the tropospheric ozone produced by each of the African emissions is found outside the continent, thus exerting a noticeable influence on a large part of the tropical troposphere. Apart from the Atlantic and Indian Ocean, Latin America experiences the largest impact of African emissions, followed by Oceania, the Middle East, Southeast and south-central Asia, northern North America (i.e. the United States and Canada), Europe and north-central Asia, for all the emission categories.

The impact of continental outflow on the ozone chemical tendencies (i.e., production and loss rates) is quantified in the North Atlantic and northwest Pacific regions using the GEOS-Chem and the MOZECH global models of chemistry and transport. The ozone tendencies simulated by these global models are compared to box model simulations constrained by observations in different regions and seasons. The two global models generally capture the seasonal and regional variations of the ozone tendencies. The largest discrepancies between the ozone tendencies from the box model and those from the global models are found in the lower troposphere of the eastern North Atlantic during the ACSOE campaign and are attributed to differences between chemical schemes and too strong NOx concentrations in the global models. The background and plume (i.e., impacted by continental outflow) environments are differentiated over the oceanic areas using criteria based on simulated daily mean CO concentrations. The ozone tendencies in the plume environment differ from that in the background over the entire column in North Atlantic and northwest Pacific at all seasons. According to the models, net ozone production is enhanced by 2 to 6 ppbv/day in the boundary layer and by 1 to 3 ppbv/ day in the upper troposphere, whereas the effect of pollution ranges from -1 ppbv/day to +1 ppbv/day in the middle troposphere (3-7 km), depending on the model used. The different responses of the two models are determined by differences in the water vapor distributions relative to those of pollutants in the plumes. In particular, GEOS-Chem tends to transport pollution in a drier sector of cyclones than MOZECH.

REanalysis of the TROpospheric chemical composition over thepast 40 years (RETRO)Objectives:• exploit (often under-utilised) existing data sets from ground based stations,aircraft, and satellite instruments, integrating these into common datasets,• develop tools for the analysis, interpretation and exploitation of the data,• formulate recommendations for future measurement strategies,• assess changes in trace compound emissions and their effect on troposphericchemical composition and aerosols, and the associated radiative forcing, overthe past 40 years,• provide an assessment of uncertainties caused by climate variability,• evaluate emission control strategies in Europe,• predict changes over the next 20 years in tropospheric composition, andradiative forcing through model studies using the emission scenarios definedfor the IPCC 2001 climate assessment,• analyze the magnitude of intercontinental pollutant transport.Scientific achievements:• first detailed, comprehensive and consistent data sets on global emissionsfrom fossil and biofuel combustion and from open vegetation burningcovering the time period 1960-2000; available as gridded data sets with0.5°×0.5° and monthly mean resolution,• first global long-term atmospheric chemistry integrations with several stateof-the-art models using the ERA-40 meteorological data, the RETROemissions and other constrains in a consistent and well-documented manner,• analysis of key parameters controlling the interannual and seasonalvariability and the longer-term trends in the tropospheric composition relatedto ozone and its precursors,• development of new software tools for the analysis of observational data andmodel results; standardisation of model output and data formats anddefinition of model evaluation metrics and skill scores,• development of a comprehensive data base for tropospheric compositionobservations with complete metadata definition and a user-friendly interfacefor data access,• multi-model analysis of specific scenarios related to power generation andthe traffic sector in OECD countries,• contributions to the IPCC 4th assessment report through participation in amulti-model assessment study coordinated by the ACCENT network ofexcellenceMain deliverables:• gridded data sets of global emissions from 1960 to 2000 (D1-4)• gridded data sets of simulated concentrations of ozone and ozone precursorsfrom 1960 to 2000 (D4-3)• data base of atmospheric observationsreport on the RETRO emission inventories (D1-6)o report on trend analysis based on observational data (D2-3)o reports on sensitivity studies (D3-2, D3-3 and D3-4)o report on the long-term reanalysis simulations (D4-4)o reports on changes in UV and radiative forcing (D5-1 and D5-2)o analysis of past policy measures including scenario studies (D5-5)All RETRO deliverables are available on the RETRO ftp serverftp://ftp.retro.enes.org/pub or via the RETRO web pages http://retro.enes.org.Socio-economic relevance and policy implications:Understanding past trends in large-scale air pollution is a key requirement toformulate future strategies to enhance air quality in Europe and elsewhere. Due tothe scarcity of observational data (particularly for years before 1990), numericalmodels are the only way to obtain comprehensive and consistent information onpast trends in tropospheric ozone and related substances. The model simulationsin RETRO also allow for evaluating the impact of important parameters on theinterannual variability of air pollution in Europe. From specific sensitivity studiesthe roles of meteorological variability, variability in anthropogenic emissions andvariability in wildland fire emissions could be determined. Scenario calculationson the impact of certain policy measures to reduce emissions from powergeneration or from the traffic sector provide a direct answer to the potentialconsequences of the introduction of more stringent air pollution abatementmeasures. Due to the effects of intercontinental transport of air pollution, localmeasures may not always achieve the expected results. These issues can only beaddressed with comprehensive, well-constrained global model simulations as theywere pioneered in the RETRO project. Several of the tools and methodologiesdeveloped in RETRO are now applied in ongoing projects with a more immediatepolicy link (especially the FP6 integrated project GEMS and the multi-modelassessment activity under the auspices of the task force on hemispheric transportof air pollution).Conclusions:• RETRO contributed significant developments to advance the state-of-the-artin global atmospheric chemistry modelling in terms of new long-termemissions data and the first comprehensive long-term multi-modelintegrations of atmospheric chemistry and transport,• The RETRO models generally show very good consistency in terms ofinterannual variability and trend patterns, but they occasionally differsignificantly in the absolute values of the simulated concentrations of ozoneand its precursors,• Comparison with observations shows that the RETRO models often capturethe atmospheric variability patterns rather well and that the mean modelgenerally provides a reasonable description of the chemical state of theatmosphere. Some exceptions are noted, in particular the absence of anincreasing ozone trend over central Europe in the 1990s which is clearly seenfrom measurements at several mountain stations,• According to the RETRO simulations, summertime boundary layerconcentrations of ozone over Europe increased between 5 and 15 ppb (10-20%) between 1960 and the year 2000. Further abatement measures in thetraffic sector (introduction of the EURO 5 standard in all OECD countries)could lead to a reduction of summertime ozone by 8-10%.• A renewed effort following on the RETRO activities would be highlydesirable in order to further expand the available emission data sets(inclusion of SO2, aerosol precursors and greenhouse gases and review ofnatural emissions), to further investigate the underlying causes fortropospheric composition change and to include the analysis of feedbacksbetween tropospheric ozone, climate change and aerosols.Dissemination of results:• more than 30 articles appeared in peer reviewed scientific journals with director indirect contributions from the RETRO project,• RETRO project results were presented in more than 100 conferencecontributions and presentations at international meetings,• a specific session on “tropospheric trends and variability” was inaugurated atthe EGU General Symposium 2004 and was repeated in 2006 and 2007,• RETRO emission data sets are being used in several ongoing researchprojects (e.g. GEMS and TFHTAP, GREENCYCLES, etc.),• All RETRO data sets and reports are available on the RETRO ftp serverftp://ftp.retro.enes.org/pub or via the RETRO web pages athttp://retro.enes.org.

We investigate the relative importance of African biomass burning, biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC), lightning and anthropogenic emissions to the tropospheric ozone budget over Africa and globally using a coupled global chemistry climate model. Our model studies indicate that the photochemical surface ozone concentration may rise by up to 50 ppbv in the burning region during the biomass burning seasons. Biogenic VOCs contribute between 5–20 ppbv to the near surface ozone concentration over the tropical African region. The impact of lightning on surface ozone is negligible, while anthropogenic emissions contribute a maximum of 10 ppbv to the surface ozone over Nigeria, South-Africa and Egypt. The annual average of the surface and column ozone over Africa shows that biomass burning is the single most important emission source affecting the African region, while biogenic emissions have the highest contribution during the rainy seasons. The contributions of African emissions to global tropospheric ozone burden (TOB) are about 9 Tg, 13 Tg, 8 Tg and 4 Tg for African biomass burning, biogenic VOC, lightning and anthropogenic emissions respectively. These correspond to 2.4%, 3.4%, 2.1% and 1% of the global tropospheric ozone budget respectively. Over Africa itself, the contribution of each of these emission types is only 2.4 Tg, 2.2 Tg, 1.4 Tg and 0.8 Tg respectively. Outside the continent, African biogenic VOC emissions yield the highest contribution to the TOB. Our model calculations suggest that about 70% of the tropospheric ozone produced from emissions in Africa is found outside the continent, thus exerting a noticeable influence on a large part of the tropical troposphere. Latin America experiences the highest impact of African emissions, followed by southeast and south-central Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East for all the emission categories; while Canada, the United States, Russia, Mongolia, China and Europe experience the least impact of African emissions.

We use 23 atmospheric chemistry transport models to calculate current and future (2030) deposition of reactive nitrogen (NOy, NHx) and sulfate (SOx) to land and ocean surfaces. The models are driven by three emission scenarios: (1) current air quality legislation (CLE); (2) an optimistic case of the maximum emissions reductions currently technologically feasible (MFR); and (3) the contrasting pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. An extensive evaluation of the present-day deposition using nearly all information on wet deposition available worldwide shows a good agreement with observations in Europe and North America, where 60–70% of the model-calculated wet deposition rates agree to within ±50% with quality-controlled measurements. Models systematically overestimate NHx deposition in South Asia, and underestimate NOy deposition in East Asia. We show that there are substantial differences among models for the removal mechanisms of NOy, NHx, and SOx, leading to ±1 s variance in total deposition fluxes of about 30% in the anthropogenic emissions regions, and up to a factor of 2 outside. In all cases the mean model constructed from the ensemble calculations is among the best when comparing to measurements. Currently, 36–51% of all NOy, NHx, and SOx is deposited over the ocean, and 50–80% of the fraction of deposition on land falls on natural (nonagricultural) vegetation. Currently, 11% of the world's natural vegetation receives nitrogen deposition in excess of the “critical load” threshold of 1000 mg(N) m-2 yr-1. The regions most affected are the United States (20% of vegetation), western Europe (30%), eastern Europe (80%), South Asia (60%), East Asia (40%), southeast Asia (30%), and Japan (50%). Future deposition fluxes are mainly driven by changes in emissions, and less importantly by changes in atmospheric chemistry and climate. The global fraction of vegetation exposed to nitrogen loads in excess of 1000 mg(N) m-2 yr-1 increases globally to 17% for CLE and 25% for A2. In MFR, the reductions in NOy are offset by further increases for NHx deposition. The regions most affected by exceedingly high nitrogen loads for CLE and A2 are Europe and Asia, but also parts of Africa.