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Funds investing in illiquid assets report returns with spurious autocorrelation. Consequently, investors need to unsmooth these funds' returns when evaluating their risk exposures. We show that funds with similar investments share a common source of spurious autocorrelation not fully resolved by traditional unsmoothing methods and thereby leading to underestimation of systematic risk. Thus, we propose a generalized unsmoothing technique and apply it to hedge funds and private commercial real estate funds. Our method significantly improves the measurement of funds' risk exposures and risk-adjusted performance, especially for highly illiquid funds. Overall, the average illiquid fund alpha is lower than previously thought. (JEL G11, G12, G23) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We find that disclosing bank-specific information reallocates systemic risk, but whether it mitigates systemic bank runs depends on the nature of information disclosed. Disclosure reveals banks' resilience to adverse shocks and shifts systemic risk from weak to strong banks. Yet, only disclosure of banks' exposure to systemic risk can mitigate systemic bank runs because it shifts systemic risk from more vulnerable banks to those less vulnerable. Disclosure of banks' idiosyncratic shortfalls of funds does not differentiate such exposure, rendering the resultant reallocation of systemic risk ineffective in mitigating systemic runs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the exclusion of business development companies (BDCs) from stock indexes, this paper studies the effectiveness of market discipline in the direct lending space. Amid share sell-offs by institutional investors, a drop in BDCs' valuations limits their ability to raise new equity capital. Following this funding shock, BDCs do not adjust their capital structure. At the same time, they are reducing the risk exposure of their portfolios. We document a greater reduction in risk for BDCs subject to stronger market discipline from their debtholders. BDCs pass through the capital shock to their portfolio firms by reducing their investment intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systematic risks in cryptocurrency markets have recently increased and have been gaining a rising number of connections with economics and financial markets; however, in this area, climate shocks could be a new kind of impact factor. In this paper, a spillover network based on a time-varying parametric-vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is constructed to measure overall cryptocurrency market extreme risks. Based on this, a second spillover network is proposed to assess the intensity of risk spillovers between extreme risks of cryptocurrency markets and uncertainties in climate conditions, economic policy, and global financial markets. The results show that extreme risks in cryptocurrency markets are highly sensitive to climate shocks, whereas uncertainties in the global financial market are the main transmitters. Dynamically, each spillover network is highly sensitive to emergent global extreme events, with a surge in overall risk exposure and risk spillovers between submarkets. Full consideration of overall market connectivity, including climate shocks, will provide a solid foundation for risk management in cryptocurrency markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the last two decades, no studies have comprehensively reviewed the risk of varying types of ultraviolet (UV) exposure on melanoma in fairer skinned individuals. Our research objective was to determine whether or not there was a change in the risk of UV exposure with development of melanoma in Fitzpatrick skin types I–IV based on more recent data over the past 20 years. We performed a systematic review from January 2002 to December 2021 analysing UV exposure and melanoma risk in Fitzpatrick type I–IV individuals. Out of 19,852 studies, 26 met inclusion criteria. Data spanned subjects from national and multinational cohorts (USA, Europe, Australia, Asia and South America). Twenty studies (77%, 20/26) identified a significant association between UV exposure and melanoma incidence. Sunburn was the most commonly assessed risk factor. Sunburn studies encompassed 3417 melanoma and found positive significant odds ratios (OR [95% CI]) in 11 out of 13 studies, ranging from 1.23 [1.01–1.49] to 8.48 [4.35–16.54]. Pooled analysis of the risk of melanoma with sunburn history found an unadjusted odds ratio of 1.66 [1.40–1.97] and adjusted odds ratio of 1.23 [1.04–1.46]. Cumulative sun exposure, measured as number of hours of sun exposure or calculated UV flux, was the second most common risk factor, encompassing 913 melanomas with positive significant ORs ranging from 1.1 [1.0–1.2] to 5.2 [2.1–12.5]. For other forms of UV exposure, a majority of studies showed an association with UV index (6/9), outdoor leisure activity (3/3) and left‐sided laterality (1/1). Overall, UV exposure should continue to be considered a modifiable risk factor for melanoma in individuals of fairer skin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to understand the status of aflatoxin contamination in dried chilli products in Gansu Province and the risk of dietary exposure, a total of 106 samples of dried chilli products from farmers’ markets and supermarkets in 14 prefecture-cities of Gansu Province were collected and analysed by isotope dilution liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The results showed that the detection rate of aflatoxin in dried chilli products in Gansu Province was 30.2%, and the average level was 1.57 μg/kg. The detection rates of dried chillies, paprika, and chilli powders were 16.7%, 43.6%, and 46.2%, respectively. The detection rates of aflatoxin in dried chilli products from shops and farmers’ markets were 22.5% and 40.0%, respectively. The dietary exposure of AFB1 was 0.0001 μg/kg bw/day, and the MOE calculated from its average concentration was 305. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a firm‐level measure of exposure to trade policy shifts that combines characteristics (tradability of goods, share of output exported and corporate risk disclosures) with information from stock returns. We show that the measure reliably captures out‐of‐sample differences in price responses and sentiment related to trade tensions, both in US and international data. Differences across firms are economically important with return effects of 140 bp around tariff announcements. We argue that such a multidimensional measure is a useful tool for future research on trade policy risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vulnerability to heat waves and their negative effects on health vary not only due to individual factors but also due to situational factors, such as time and geography. Hence, we explored seasonal variations and predictors of heat wave feelings of threat across different heat wave geographical susceptibility locations in Portugal. A total of 238 Portuguese residents responded to a web‐based longitudinal survey: before the summer, during a heat wave in the summer, during the summer, and after the summer. Geographical location was used as an indicator of risk exposure, operationalized as heat wave occurrence susceptibility (low, moderate, high). Heat wave demands and resources perceptions were assessed to compute an indicator of heat wave feelings of threat. During the heat wave, feelings of threat were higher among participants in high‐susceptibility locations, with demands outweighing resources perceptions, suggesting greater distress and coping difficulty. Regression analysis suggested that older participants and female participants living in moderate–high‐susceptibility locations had greater difficulty in recovering. Heat wave risk perception and positive affect about heat were identified as the most consistent predictors of heat wave feelings of threat, with risk perception increasing and positive affect decreasing such feelings. Participants with (individual and geographical) vulnerability profiles, who had greater difficulty in coping and recovering from heat waves, could benefit from resource‐building/enhancing interventions. In a climatic crisis context, monitoring psychological responses to heat waves (e.g., threat) may enable anticipated action to build resilience before, rather than after, the effects become damaging to physical and psychological health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-pulsed lasers can treat dermal pigmented lesions through selective photothermolysis. The irradiated light experiences multiple scattering by the skin and is absorbed by abnormal melanosomes as well as by normal blood vessels above the target. Because the fluence is extremely high, the absorbed light can cause thermal damage to the adjacent tissue components, leading to complications. To minimize radiant exposure and reduce the risk of burns, a model of the melanosome-disruption threshold fluence (MDTF) has been developed that accounts for the light-propagation efficiency in the skin. However, the light-propagation efficiency is attenuated because of multiple scattering, which limits the extent to which the radiant exposure required for treatment can be reduced. Here, this study demonstrates the principle of melanosome disruption with localized thermal damage through a turbid medium by ultralow radiant exposure of a short-pulsed laser. The MDTF model was combined with a wavefront-shaping technique to design an irradiation condition that can increase the light-propagation efficiency to the target. Under this irradiation condition, melanosomes were disrupted at a radiant exposure 25 times lower than the minimal value used in conventional laser treatments. Furthermore, almost no thermal damage to the skin was confirmed through a numerical simulation. These experimental and numerical results show the potential for noninvasive melanosome disruption and may lead to the improvement of the safety of short-pulsed laser treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The Life's Simple 7 score (LS7) promotes cardiovascular health (CVH). Despite this, somewith optimal LS7 develop cardiovascular disease (CVD), while others with poor CVH do not, termed the "CVH paradox." This paper explores pathways explaining this paradox. Methods: We examined methodological aspects: 1) misclassification bias in self-reported lifestyle factors (smoking, physical activity, diet); 2) cumulative exposure to risk factors over a lifetime, impacting the CVH paradox. Punctual risk factor assessments are suboptimal for predicting outcomes. We proposed personalized prevention using "novel" elements to refine CVH assessment: 1) subclinical vascular disease markers, 2) metabolic biomarkers in blood and urine, 3) emerging risk factors, 4) polygenic risk scores (PRS), 5) epigenetics, and 6) the exposome. Results: Addressing the CVH paradox requires a multifaceted approach, reducing misclassification bias, considering cumulative risk exposure, and incorporating novel personalized prevention elements. Conclusion: A holistic, individualized approach to CVH assessment and CVD prevention can better reduce cardiovascular outcomes and improve population health. Collaboration among researchers, healthcare providers, policymakers, and communities is essential for effective implementation and realization of these strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we calculate the value-at-risk (VaR) for large portfolios in intensity models, where the idiosyncratic and systematic risk exposures as well as the impact of past default losses are subsumed into the intensity processes. The adopted method is based on the theory of saddlepoint approximation for continuous-time Markov processes whose transition densities and distribution functions can be approximated in closed forms. A simple example with theoretical and numerical results is presented in the end. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how animals respond to fire is crucial for conservation efforts in fire‐prone regions across the world. How fire affects animal movement is of particular interest, as it determines access to resources, exposure to risks, and connectivity of populations. We report on observations of the movement patterns and habitat selection of two northern quolls (Dasyurus hallucatus, an endangered marsupial predator), one male and one female, in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. We employed GPS tracking and integrated step selection functions to analyse habitat preferences in relation to fire, and used accelerometry data to assess the energetic costs of using burnt areas. The male northern quoll avoided recently burnt areas, likely due to increased energetic demands and predation risks during the breeding season. In contrast, the female northern quoll neither avoided nor preferred burnt areas, but showed a preference for rocky areas. The female appeared to move through burnt areas to access suitable breeding habitat. The movement patterns observed in the two individuals might reflect a broader pattern of sex‐specific responses to fire, but further research is required to confirm how general the pattern is. Our observations indicate that fire can influence northern quoll movement, with female dependence on rocky areas increasing use of suboptimal habitats, and male avoidance of burnt areas raising potential implications for breeding dispersal and population dynamics. Given the expected increases in fire size and frequency, further research on northern quoll responses to fire in the Pilbara is needed to determine if the pattern we observed is consistent across the broader population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Given the difficulties in finding significant exchange rate exposure in the extant literature, this paper attempts to resolve the so-called "exposure puzzle" by investigating whether currency movements have any significant impact on international industry returns. Design/methodology/approach: This paper utilizes the multivariate Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) methodology to estimate both symmetric and asymmetric exchange rate exposures for each industry common across 12 countries simultaneously. Findings: The empirical results show that exchange rate exposure is not only statistically significant but also economically important based on the estimation of an asymmetric three-factor exposure model using MGARCH methodology. This is an extremely important finding as it suggests that the "exposure puzzle" may not be a puzzle at all once a better methodology is utilized in the estimation. Research limitations/implications: Because this study tries to resolve the exchange rate exposure puzzle by focusing on whether exchange rate movements affect ex-post returns as opposed to ex ante expected returns and given the significant exposures with respect to different risk factors found in the study, it is interesting to see if any of these risk factors commands a risk premium. In other words, a natural extension of this study is to test whether any of these risk factors is priced in international industry returns. Practical implications: The findings of the study have interesting implications for international investors who would like to diversify their portfolios across different industries and are concerned about whether the unexpected movements in the bilateral exchange rates will affect their portfolio returns in addition to its interest rate and world market risk exposures. Originality/value: The study utilizes the MGARCH methodology, which has not been fully exploited in the exchange rate exposure literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research documents that exposure to air pollution can trigger various behavioral reactions. This article presents novel empirical evidence on the causal effect of pollution risk on life insurance decisions. We create a unique dataset by linking microgeographic air quality information to the confidential UK Wealth and Assets Survey. We identify an inverse N‐shape relationship between pollution risk and life insurance adoption by exploiting the orthogonal variations in meteorological conditions. Over a given range above a threshold of exposure, rising pollution is associated with rising demand for life insurance, whereas at lower than the threshold levels of pollution, higher exposure risk reduces demand for insurance. Our findings indicate—for the first time—a nonlinear relationship between local pollution risk and life insurance demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study conducted a dietary exposure assessment of chloropropanols and aluminium, after quantifying their content in food. The mean dietary exposure to Al from total grain products was found to be 6.4E–04 mg/kg bw/week, not exceeding the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI). The results showed that the mean dietary exposure of 3-monochloro-1,2-propanediol (3-MCPD) from grain products was higher than the tolerable daily intake (TDI). Deterministic evaluations showed that the mean HQ of 1.5 to Al from fried dough twist was higher than 1. However, the HI values to Al were lower than 1 and the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) showed that the HQ was greater than 1 at the 99% exposure level. Deterministic and probabilistic methods indicated that HQ values of 3-MCPD from grain products were above 1, whereas the mean HI value was 0.62. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tamoxifen, a pivotal therapy for hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, is known for its efficacy in reducing breast cancer recurrence and mortality. However, concerns about potential ocular complications, particularly maculopathy, have emerged. This study aims to investigate the risk and associated factors of diverse macular conditions in tamoxifen users, considering drug exposure, demographics, and systemic diseases. A nationwide cohort of tamoxifen users, comprised of 14,267 tamoxifen users, was analyzed using the health insurance review and assessment database in South Korea. Demographic and clinical characteristics were examined, and the cumulative incidence of macular diseases was stratified by age and cumulative tamoxifen dosage. We conducted logistic regression analysis to identify potential risk factors among clinical variables such as age, sex, indications for tamoxifen use, and systemic diseases associated with various macular conditions. Additionally, Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the baseline clinical characteristics predictive of these macular conditions, with subsequent calculation of hazard ratios. Cumulative incidences of overall macular diseases, other maculopathy excluding common macular diseases, and macular edema were 26.4, 11.4, and 6.5%, respectively. The incidence of various macular conditions increased with age and the cumulative tamoxifen dose. Age, cumulative dose group, and liver diseases demonstrated significant associations with overall macular diseases and maculopathy excluding common macular diseases in multivariate logistic regression analyses (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, age emerged as significant predictive factors of maculopathy in Cox proportional hazard models. Tamoxifen-induced maculopathy poses a concern for prescribing physicians and ophthalmologists, and this study provides valuable insights into its risk and risk factors. This study may contribute to evidence-based guidelines for tamoxifen maculopathy screening, emphasizing the importance of considering age, cumulative dose, and liver diseases for recommendation on screening timing and frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indoor house dust is considered an important human exposure route to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), which has raised concern about their environmental persistence and toxicity properties. In this study, eight PBDEs (BDE-28, -47, -99, -100, -153, -154, -183, and -209) were determined in house dust from two cities with different socio-demographic characteristics from Brazil, examining possible relationships with factors that potentially influence contamination (population density, economic activities, presence of electronic equipment, and so on) and also estimating the risk of human exposure through oral ingestion and dermal contact. The Σ8PBDE concentration in Sorocaba city ranged between 380 and 4269 ng/g dw, while in Itapetininga city ranged from 106 to 1000 ng/g dw. In both regions, BDE-209 was the most abundantly found congener, followed by BDE-99. House dust from Sorocaba presented significantly greater concentrations of BDE-183 and BDE-209 than Itapetininga. Regarding risk exposure assessment, the estimated daily intake (EDI) of PBDEs was much lower than their respective reference doses (RfDs) in all pathways estimated (non-dietary ingestion and dermal contact). This study provided valuable data to improve the knowledge about the presence and exposure to PBDEs in Brazilian house dust in comparison to other developing countries and the need to control environmental pollution and protect human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Apparent temperature (AT) is a composite index that combines ambient temperature, humidity, wind speed and other meteorological factors, and reflects heat perception more accurately than raw temperature. This is the first study to investigate the association between AT and CVD in rural areas of Jiuquan and Longnan, Gansu Province, China. In this study, the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the exposure-response relationship between AT and the 21 days relative risk (RR) of CVD admission. The results showed that the exposure risk of the gender group in Jiuquan was opposite to that of Longnan under the influence of cold effect. Under the influence of heat effect, it has a protective effect on all groups in Jiuquan area, which is harmful to males and adults in Longnan area. The results of this study can help local governments to formulate public policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current studies have presented conflicting findings regarding the associations between light at night (LAN) exposure and the risk of overweight/obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Our study systematically summarized the evidence of the association between LAN exposure and the risk of overweight/obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. We searched five databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane) for observational studies published up to 1 August 2023. The pooled odds ratio (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by random-effects models for the association. Eighteen studies were included in the meta-analysis. Compared with the group with the lowest level of LAN, the group with the highest level of LAN is associated with an increased risk of overweight/obesity (pooled OR = 1.19, 95%CI: 1.13–1.26), hypertension (pooled OR: 1.86, 95% CI:1.28–2.72), and diabetes (pooled OR = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.07–1.31). Our meta-analysis demonstrated LAN exposure is associated with increased risk of overweight/obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change has made the relationship between disaster and sustainable development more critical. Especially in developing countries, disasters frequently devastate local communities and hinder progress. Children are at a higher risk during catastrophes; however, their knowledge of disaster risk is limited. Education for disaster risk reduction can bring the necessary changes for a safe society. School disaster prevention education can raise awareness through lectures and games, but interactive dialogues between students and teachers can be more effective. Also, GPS tracking can be a valuable tool for understanding people's behavior during disasters. Methodology: This study proposes a method to analyze the relationship between students' daily behavior and their experiences of flood damage and preparedness for disaster risk. It is a simple method using questionnaires and GPS loggers and can be applied in mountainous areas in developing countries where equipment is inadequate. The proposed method will be used to understand the current state of disaster risk among children and identify disaster risk reduction issues. The study area lies in Paluntar Municipality, Gorkha district, Nepal. Forty-five students from two schools in the region participated in the study. Results: The results showed that students who commute to school in areas inundated by heavy rainfall in recent years were not adequately prepared for disasters, even though they had experienced flood damage in the past and were significantly more concerned about future harm. Our field observations and interviews of teacher-student relationships showed that students were very attentive to their teachers' instruction. Teachers understand the dangers of heavy rainfall and how to prepare for it, but students need to learn how to deal with it. In other words, the school staff's disaster education to the students effectively reduces disasters. Early warning is needed when severe floods are expected during the rainy season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past experiences play a key role in shaping risk preferences. Several experimental studies have found that the impact of antecedent risk exposure on subsequent risk-taking behaviour varies across domains, but a gap still exists in the literature with respect to how this dynamic is shaped by gains and losses. This paper experimentally reveals that exposure to a higher level of risk in the gain domain makes individuals more risk-taking in the subsequent loss domain and vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Airborne pollen is a crucial risk factor in allergic rhinitis (AR). The severity of AR symptoms can vary based on pollen type and concentration. This study aimed to estimate the association between exposure to different pollen types and AR risk. Methods: We obtained data from patients admitted to the Beijing Tongren Hospital for AR, and data on pollen concentration, meteorological factors, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from 13 districts in Beijing from 2016 to 2019. We used a time‐stratified case‐crossover study design and calculated odds ratios (ORs) related to the risk of AR associated with a 10 grain/1000 mm2 increase in total pollen concentrations for specific pollen types. A stratified analysis was conducted to assess whether the associations were varied by age and sex. Results: The OR of AR associated with a 10 grain/1000 mm2 increase in the 7‐day average pollen concentration was 1.014 (95% CI: 1.014, 1.015), 1.076 (95% CI: 1.070, 1.082), 1.024 (95% CI: 1.023, 1.025), 1.042 (95% CI: 1.039, 1.045), 1.142 (95% CI: 1.137, 1.147), 1.092 (95% CI: 1.088, 1.097), 1.046 (95% CI: 1.035, 1.058), and 1.026 (95% CI: 1.024, 1.028) for total pollen, Ulmus, Cupressaceae, Populus, Fraxinus, Pinus, Betula, and Artemisia, respectively. Both tree pollen (Ulmus, Cupressaceae, Populus, Fraxinus, Betula, and Pinus) and weed pollen (Artemisia, Chenopodium, and Humulus) were correlated with an increased risk of AR. These associations remained consistent across distinct subgroups defined by both age and sex. Conclusion: Exposure to pollen from trees and weeds might be associated with an increased risk of AR. This research provides valuable scientific support for both clinical practitioners and patients with AR regarding the hazards of pollen exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Humanitarian aid workers are exposed to deployment-related health threats. Identifying subgroups at a higher risk of infection in this diverse population could help optimize prevention. Methods We carried out a retrospective study based on anonymized data of humanitarian aid workers that visited our clinic for a post-deployment visit between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2021. We conducted a descriptive analysis of basic demographic data, self-reported risk exposure and health problems encountered during deployment extracted from a standard questionnaire. Results The questionnaire was administered to 1238 aid workers during 1529 post-deployment medical consultations. The median age was 37.2 years (IQR 31.7–44.3), and 718/1529 (47.0%) were female aid workers. The median duration of deployment was 6 months (IQR 3–12 months). Most deployments (1321/1529 (86.4%)) were for a medical organization and in Sub-Saharan Africa (73.2%). The most common risk exposures were contact with freshwater in schistosomiasis endemic regions (187/1308 (14.3%)), unprotected sexual contact with a person other than a regular partner (138/1529 (9.0%)), suspected rabies exposure (56/1529 (3.7%)) and accidental exposure to blood (44/1529 (2.9%)). Gastrointestinal problems (487/1529 (31.9%)), malaria (237/1529 (15.5%)) and respiratory tract infections (94/1529 (6,2%)) were the most encountered health problems. Fifteen volunteers (1%) were hospitalized during deployment and 19 (1.2%) repatriated due to health problems. Adherence to malaria chemoprophylaxis was poor, only taken according to the prescription in 355 out of 1225 (29.0%) of aid workers for whom prophylaxis was indicated. Conclusion Humanitarian aid workers deployed abroad encounter significant rates of health problems and report a high level of risk exposure during their deployment, with the risks being greatest among younger people, those deployed to rural areas, and those working for non-medical organizations. These findings help guide future pre-deployment consultations, to increase awareness and reduce risk behaviour during deployment, as well as focus on adherence to medical advice such as malaria chemoprophylaxis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Commission requested an estimation of the BSE risk (C‐, L‐ and H‐BSE) from gelatine and collagen derived from ovine, caprine or bovine bones, and produced in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 853/2004, or Regulation (EC) No 1069/2009 and its implementing Regulation (EU) No 142/2011. A quantitative risk assessment was developed to estimate the BSE infectivity, measured in cattle oral infectious dose 50 (CoID50), in a small size batch of gelatine including one BSE‐infected bovine or ovine animal at the clinical stage. The model was built on a scenario where all ruminant bones could be used for the production of gelatine and high‐infectivity tissues remained attached to the skull (brain) and vertebral column (spinal cord). The risk and exposure pathways defined for humans and animals, respectively, were identified. Exposure routes other than oral via food and feed were considered and discussed but not assessed quantitatively. Other aspects were also considered as integrating evidence, like the epidemiological situation of the disease, the species barrier, the susceptibility of species to BSE and the assumption of an exponential dose–response relationship to determine the probability of BSE infection in ruminants. Exposure to infectivity in humans cannot be directly translated to risk of disease because the transmission barrier has not yet been quantified, although it is considered to be substantial, i.e. much greater amounts of infectivity would be needed to successfully infect a human and greater in the oral than in the parenteral route of exposure. The probability that no new case of BSE in the cattle or small ruminant population would be generated through oral exposure to gelatine made of ruminant bones is 99%–100% (almost certain) This conclusion is based on the current state of knowledge, the epidemiological situation of the disease and the current practices, and is also valid for collagen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

EFSA performs dietary exposure assessments for food‐producing and non‐food‐producing animals to deliver risk assessment for mandates on the presence of contaminants in feed. The CONTAM and FEEDAP Panels identified the need to update the animal dietary exposure assessment model used in those assessments in CONTAM Scientific Opinions since 2011 in cases where insufficient occurrence data are available on species specific compound feeds. The Panels proposed in this statement a series of model diets based on groups of feed materials with the possibility to use different feed materials in their formulation. The Panels considered that the currently proposed model diets cover the need of the CONTAM Panel to assess the dietary exposure of animals to contaminants in feed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Milk produced in Rwanda and consumed in cattle keeping households poses undocumented food safety risks including the transmission of the zoonotic brucellosis from animals to humans. The aim of this study was, therefore, to determine the risk factors of exposure to Brucella species through milk consumption in zero grazing and open grazing cattle keeping households in Rwanda. The study was a cross-sectional study which involved 198 and 132 households practicing zero grazing and open grazing cattle production systems, respectively. To determine the risk factors exposure to Brucella through milk consumption, a questionnaire was used to collect data on milk consumption habits and indirect Enzyme-Linked Immuno-Sorbent Assay (i-ELISA) was used to collect data on farm bulk milk contamination with Brucella. Collected questionnaire and i-ELISA data were then analyzed using SPSS descriptive statistics and logistic regression. In nearly half (49.1 %; 162/330) of all surveyed households, raw milk was consumed. And overall, 14.2% (47/330) of all surveyed households were exposed to Brucella by having at least one household member consuming raw milk in a household for which the farm bulk milk sample tested positive for Brucella. The proportion of open grazing households in which raw milk was consumed and from which the farm bulk milk sample tested positive for Brucella (34.8 %; 46/132) was significantly high (p < 0.05) compared to the proportion of zero grazing households consuming raw milk and having a Brucella positive farm bulk milk sample (0.5 %; 1/198). While in total 4.8 % (77/1589) of all surveyed individual household members were exposed to Brucella by consuming raw milk in a household for which the farm bulk milk sample had tested positive for Brucella, the cattle keeper was the most exposed household member (OR=50.82, 95 % CI [17.9-143.9], p < 0.05). Practicing open grazing cattle production system was significantly associated with raw milk consumption and raw milk consumption in a household with a Brucella positive farm bulk milk. There is a risk of exposure to Brucella through milk consumption especially in households practicing open grazing cattle production in Rwanda. Educational campaigns are needed to raise awareness about the dangers of drinking raw milk in regards to zoonotic brucellosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we explore how the construction and analysis of geographically referenced data can improve outcomes for children at risk of lead exposure. We discuss the history of how children were identified for lead testing and lead intervention (both medical and housing) over time, as well as the shortcomings of the United States' current approach. We then suggest ways that geospatial approaches can improve lead testing and intervention programs, especially in settings with limited information or financial resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental risk assessments often rely on measured concentrations in environmental matrices to characterize exposure of the population of interest—typically, humans, aquatic biota, or other wildlife. Yet, there is limited guidance available on how to report and evaluate exposure datasets for reliability and relevance, despite their importance to regulatory decision‐making. This paper is the second of a four‐paper series detailing the outcomes of a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Technical Workshop that has developed Criteria for Reporting and Evaluating Exposure Datasets (CREED). It presents specific criteria to systematically evaluate the reliability of environmental exposure datasets. These criteria can help risk assessors understand and characterize uncertainties when existing data are used in various types of assessments and can serve as guidance on best practice for the reporting of data for data generators (to maximize utility of their datasets). Although most reliability criteria are universal, some practices may need to be evaluated considering the purpose of the assessment. Reliability refers to the inherent quality of the dataset and evaluation criteria address the identification of analytes, study sites, environmental matrices, sampling dates, sample collection methods, analytical method performance, data handling or aggregation, treatment of censored data, and generation of summary statistics. Each criterion is evaluated as "fully met," "partly met," "not met or inappropriate," "not reported," or "not applicable" for the dataset being reviewed. The evaluation concludes with a scheme for scoring the dataset as reliable with or without restrictions, not reliable, or not assignable, and is demonstrated with three case studies representing both organic and inorganic constituents, and different study designs and assessment purposes. Reliability evaluation can be used in conjunction with relevance evaluation (assessed separately) to determine the extent to which environmental monitoring datasets are "fit for purpose," that is, suitable for use in various types of assessments. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:981–1003. © 2024 Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. Key Points: As part of "Criteria for Reporting and Evaluating Exposure Datasets," we present specific criteria to systematically evaluate the reliability (data quality) of environmental exposure datasets for use in risk assessment.Criteria for Reporting and Evaluating Exposure Datasets is a systematic, transparent procedure that can help risk assessors understand and characterize uncertainties in existing datasets and serves as guidance on best practice for the reporting of data for data generators to maximize utility of their datasets.Reliability criteria address the identification of analytes, study sites, environmental matrices, sampling dates, sample collection methods, analytical method performance, data handling, treatment of censored data, and generation of summary statistics.Criteria for Reporting and Evaluating Exposure Datasets reliability evaluation includes the identification of data limitations that may affect data usability, and when paired with relevance evaluation (assessed separately), can be used to determine the extent to which environmental monitoring datasets are "fit for purpose." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use account-level transaction data to examine trading styles and profitability in a leading derivatives market. Approximately 66% of active retail investors predominantly hold simple, one-sided positions in only one class of options, whereas institutional investors are more likely to use complex strategies. Hypothesizing that the complexity of trading styles reflects investors' skills, we examine the effect of options trading styles on investment performance. We find that retail investors using simple strategies lose to the rest of the market. For both retail and institutional investors, selling volatility is the most successful strategy. We conclude that these style effects are persistent and cannot be fully explained by systematic risk exposure. This paper was accepted by Lukas Schmid, finance. Funding: J. Hu acknowledges financial support from Lee Kong Chian Fellowship. A. Kirilova acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation [Grant PID2021-128994NA-I00]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4916. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using textual analysis techniques, including seeded word embedding and bag-of-words-based content analysis, I develop a firm-level measure of supply chain risk exposure from a novel source of unstructured data—the discussion between managers and equity analysts on supply chain-related topics during firms' quarterly earnings conference calls. I validate the measure by showing that (1) the measure exhibits intuitive variations over time and across firms, successfully capturing both routine and systematic supply chain risk events; and (2) the measure is about risk exposure, as it significantly correlates with realized and options-implied stock return volatility, even after controlling for well-known aggregate risk measures. I then demonstrate that the measure is specifically indicative of the supply chain component of risk exposure. (3) Consistent with theoretical predictions, firms facing higher supply chain risks have higher inventory buffers, particularly in raw materials and intermediate inputs, increased cash holdings in lieu of investments, and significantly lower trade credit received from suppliers. Moreover, (4) during unexpected risk episodes, such as the Tohoku earthquake, firms with higher ex ante risk exposure have worse operating and financial performance. These results indicate that the text-based measure provides a credible quantification of firm-level exposure to supply chain risks and can thus be reliably utilized as outcome or explanatory variables in empirical supply chain research. This paper was accepted by Jeannette Song, operations management. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4927. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I show that stochastic contracts generate powerful incentives when agents suffer from probability distortion. When implementing these contracts, the principal can target probability distortions in order to inflate the agent's perceived benefits of exerting high levels of effort. This novel source of motivation is absent in contracts traditionally regarded as optimal. A theoretical framework and an experiment demonstrate that stochastic contracts implemented with small probabilities, which expose the agent to a high degree of risk, generate higher performance than cost‐equivalent contracts with lower or no risk exposure. I find that probability distortions that result from likelihood insensitivity—cognitive limitations that prevent the accurate evaluation of probabilities—account for this finding. The results highlight the limits of contracts traditionally regarded as optimal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a test for deciding whether the linear spaces spanned by the factor exposures of a large cross‐section of assets toward latent systematic risk factors at two distinct points in time are the same. The test uses a panel of asset returns in local windows around the two time points. The asymptotic setup is of joint type: the number of assets and the number of return observations per asset increase asymptotically while the length of both time windows shrinks. We estimate the factor exposures, up to rotation, over the two periods using classical principal component analysis and evaluate their projection discrepancy, which is rotation invariant. This projection discrepancy is then centered with one between factor exposures computed over a partition of the pooled return data into odd and even increments. We derive the limit distribution of the statistic under the null hypothesis and develop an easy‐to‐implement bootstrap for constructing the critical region of the test. The test is applied to intraday financial data to determine whether the linear span of assets' systematic risk exposures differ during a trading day or after a release of important economic information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bisphenol S (BPS), an environmental endocrine disruptor, has been identified in global environmental matrices. Nevertheless, limited studies have investigated the presence of chlorinated analogues of BPS (Clx-BPSs) with potential estrogenic activities in environmental matrices. In this study, the occurrence of BPS and five types of Clx-BPSs was characterized in indoor dust (n = 178) from Hangzhou City. BPS was measurable in 94% of indoor dust samples, with an average level of 0.63 μg/g (1-BPS (2-chloro-4-(4-hydroxyphenyl)sulfonylphenol; detection frequency 70%), Cl2-BPS-2 (2-chloro-4-(3-chloro-4-hydroxyphenyl)sulfonylphenol; 65%), and Cl2-BPS-1 (2,6-dichloro-4-(4-hydroxyphenyl)sulfonylphenol; 61%) were among the frequently detected Clx-BPSs. Cl1-BPS was the most abundant analyte, with an average of 0.048 μg/g (2-BPS-1 (0.035 μg/g, 2-BPS-2 (0.031 μg/g, 1-BPS (p < 0.01), as well as between BPS and Cl2-BPS-1 (p < 0.01). Moreover, an estimation was made for the total daily intake of Clx-BPSs via the ingestion of indoor dust by infants, children, and adults. This study presents the first evidence of the existence of Clx-BPSs in indoor dust, concurrently highlighting the necessity to address their potential human exposure risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of climate change and human activities, Central Asia's (CA) terminal lake basins (TLBs) are shrinking, leading to deteriorating natural environments and serious soil wind erosion (SWE), which threatens regional socio-economic development, human health, and safety. Limited research on SWE and population exposure risk (PER) in these areas prompted this study, which applied the RWEQ and a PER model to assess the spatiotemporal changes in SWE and PER in TLBs in CA, including the Ili River Basin (IRB), Tarim River Basin (TRB), Syr Darya River Basin (SRB), and Amu Darya River Basin (ARB), from 2000 to 2020. We analyzed the driving factors of SWE and used the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to simulate dust event trajectories. The findings from 2000 to 2020 show a spatial reduction trend in SWE and PER, with primary SWE areas in the Taklamakan Desert, Aral Sea Basin, and Lake Balkhash. Significant PER was observed along the Tarim River, near Lake Balkhash, and in the middle and lower reaches of the ARB and SRB. Over the past 21 years, temporal trends in SWE have occurred across basins, decreasing in the IRB, but increasing in the TRB, SRB, and ARB. Dust movement trajectories indicate that dust from the lower reaches of the SRB and ARB could affect Europe, while dust from the TRB could impact northern China and Japan. Correlations between SWE, NDVI, temperature, and precipitation revealed a negative correlation between precipitation and NDVI, suggesting an inhibitory impact of precipitation and vegetation cover on SWE. SWE also varied significantly under different LUCCs, with increases in cropland, forestland, and desert land, and decreases in grassland and wetland. These insights are vital for understanding SWE and PER in TLBs and offer theoretical support for emergency mitigation in arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical models are a powerful tool to estimate a high-dimensional inverse covariance (precision) matrix, which has been applied for a portfolio allocation problem. The assumption made by these models is a sparsity of the precision matrix. However, when stock returns are driven by common factors, such assumption does not hold. We address this limitation and develop a framework, Factor Graphical Lasso (FGL), which integrates graphical models with the factor structure in the context of portfolio allocation by decomposing a precision matrix into low-rank and sparse components. Our theoretical results and simulations show that FGL consistently estimates the portfolio weights and risk exposure and also that FGL is robust to heavy-tailed distributions which makes our method suitable for financial applications. FGL-based portfolios are shown to exhibit superior performance over several prominent competitors including equal-weighted and index portfolios in the empirical application for the S&P500 constituents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The acute toxicity (sometimes called "overdose" or "poisoning") crisis has affected Canadians across all stages of life, including youth, adults and older adults. Our biological risks and exposures to substances change as we age. Based on a national chart review study of coroner and medical examiner data on acute toxicity deaths in 2016 and 2017, this analysis compares the burden of deaths and circumstances of death, locations of acute toxicity event and death, health history and substances contributing to death of people, by sex and life stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Urban slums are hotspots of infectious diseases like COVID-19 as was seen in the waves of 2020 and 2021. One of the primary reasons why slums are disproportionately affected is their location in inaccessible and uninhabitable zones, crowded and poorly ventilated living spaces, unsanitary conditions and common facilities (water taps, common toilets, etc.). Staying at home during pandemics is hardly an option for slum dwellers as it often means giving up work and even basic necessities. Methodology This paper aims to understand the habitat vulnerabilities of slums in the two Indian megacities of Pune and Surat which were the worst hit during both waves. The study is done at the level of wards, which is the smallest administrative boundary, taking the habitat vulnerability (congestion and access to basic services). To identify the explanatory variables which increase the vulnerability of slums to infectious diseases, literature study is done on the triggering factors which affect habitat vulnerability derived from common characteristics and definitions of slum. Results The aim of the research is to categorize the slums into 3 levels of risk zones and map them subsequently. Conclusion This study will help in formulating a model to prioritize the allocation of sparse resources in developing countries to tackle the habitat vulnerabilities of the slum dwellers especially during health emergencies of contagious diseases like COVID-19.

Harvest regulations commonly attenuate the consequences of hunting on specific segments of a population. However, regulations may not protect individuals from non‐lethal effects of hunting and their consequences remain poorly understood. In this study, we compared the movement rates of Scandinavian brown bears (Ursus arctos, n = 47) across spatiotemporal variations in risk in relation to the onset of bear hunting. We tested two alternative hypotheses based on whether behavioural responses to hunting involve hiding or escaping. If bears try to reduce risk exposure by avoiding being detected by hunters, we expect individuals from all demographic groups to reduce their movement rate during the hunting season. On the other hand, if bears avoid hunters by escaping, we expect them to increase their movement rate in order to leave high‐risk areas faster. We found an increased movement rate in females accompanied by dependent offspring during the morning hours of the bear hunting season, a general decrease in movement rate in adult lone females, and no changes in males and subadult females. The increased movement rate that we observed in females with dependant offspring during the hunting season was likely an antipredator response because it only occurred in areas located closer to roads, whereas the decreased movement rate in lone females could be either part of seasonal activity patterns or be associated with an increased selection for better concealment. Our study suggests that female brown bears accompanied by offspring likely move faster in high‐risk areas to minimize risk exposure as well as the costly trade‐offs (i.e. time spent foraging vs. time spent hiding) typically associated with anti‐predator tactics that involve changes in resource selection. Our study also highlights the importance of modelling fine‐scale spatiotemporal variations in risk to adequately capture the complexity in behavioural responses caused by human activities in wildlife. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Organophosphorus flame retardants (OPFRs) can damage the brain and may cause abnormal behaviors. There was no population-based study to reveal the relationship between OPFRs and the occurrence of depression. This study utilized a publicly available database to investigate the correlation between OPFRs exposure and the risk of depression, and the mediation effect of inflammation on the correlation. Data in this study was from the database of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Multifactorial logistic regression was used to estimate the relationship between OPFRs exposure and the risk of depression, and a mediation effect model was constructed to explore the impact of inflammation on the correlation. Data of 1273 participants was included in the study. It was found that individuals with high urinary concentration of bis-(2-chloroethyl) phosphate had an increased risk of developing depression (OR = 1.217, 95 % CI: 1.032–1.435). Combined exposure to OPFRs was significantly associated with the increased risk of depression than single OPFRs exposure. Subgroup analyses based on inflammatory levels in the body revealed that inflammation might exert the mediation effect on the association between OPFRs exposure and the risk of depression, with the contribution proportion of 8.23 %. Cross-sectional data and rapid metabolism of OPFRs lead to uncertainty in revealing long-term exposure in the body. There was a correlation between OPFRs exposure and the risk of depression, which may be mediated by inflammation in the body to some extent. • OPFRs exposure is a risk factor for depression. • Combined exposure to OPFRs causes a higher risk of depression than single exposure. • The inflammatory status may be involved in the depression caused by OPFRs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The artificial 137Cs radionuclide dispersed into the atmosphere as a consequence of the Chernobyl accident. As a result of the explosion, radioactive pollution occurred in the Black Sea and Thrace region. In the present study, to assess the risks associated with the exposure due to Chernobyl fallout, artificial 137Cs radionuclide was analyzed in collected surface soil samples from the Anatolian region of Istanbul, in Thrace Region of Turkey by a gamma-ray spectrometer equipped with HPGe. The artificial 137Cs radionuclide activity concentrations range from <0.07 to 9.95 ± 0.19 Bq kg−1 d.w. in soil samples. To estimate the radiological hazard resulting from fallout 137Cs were calculated. The annual effective dose rate ranges from 0.003 to 0.37 μSv y−1. Statistical analyses were carried out to understand the distribution of 137Cs activity concentration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomarkers of susceptibility are indicative of an individual's capacity to react to particular exposures, whereas toxicodynamic models elucidate the correlation between exposure and response. In this article, a novel methodology is presented for the evaluation of modifying factors in the field of toxicology. The proposed approach involves the integration of biomarkers of susceptibility with toxicodynamic models. Through the integration of these two methodologies, scientists are able to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of modifying factors, such as genetic polymorphisms or epigenetic profiles, on an individual's reaction to toxic substances. This methodology has the potential to facilitate a more thorough evaluation of the hazards linked to the contact with combinations of chemicals and the cumulative effects of such exposures. The utilization of biomarkers in the evaluation of exposure for risk assessment is progressively incorporating the examination of susceptibility factors alongside exposure factors. This may involve the identification of a particular genetic polymorphism for a metabolic enzyme. The integration of ecotoxicological tests with models is crucial for achieving a comprehensive assessment. This approach exhibits the potential to enhance our comprehension of disease causation and facilitate the identification of populations that may exhibit an elevated susceptibility to disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the ESG impact to the downside risk of companies in the US market by introducing a novel measure, the ESG risk contribution (ΔCoESGRisk). ΔCoESGRisk is a measurement based on the co-movement between the ESG risk factor and the downside risk. When there is a sudden increase in the ESG risk factor, the downside risk of high-ESG companies is reduced. However, under extreme conditions, the downside risk of high-ESG companies could also be increased, due to the increased company volatility. The ESG impact is positively correlated with the ESG performance and size, and it varies among sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, wildfires have become common disasters that threaten people's lives and assets, particularly in wildland–urban interfaces (WUIs). Developing an effective evacuation strategy for a WUI presents challenges to emergency planners because of the spatial variations in biophysical hazards and social vulnerability. The aim of this study was to map priority WUIs in terms of evacuation. The factors considered were the seriousness of the risk of wildfire exposure, and the population centres whose greatest constraints on the evacuation process stemmed from the nature of the exposed population and the time required to travel to the nearest shelter/refuge. An integrated framework linking wildfire hazard, social vulnerability, and the time taken to travel by foot or by car to the nearest refuge/shelter was applied. The study area includes two municipalities (Lousã and Sertã) in the mountainous areas of central Portugal that are in high-wildfire-risk areas and have very vulnerable and scattered pockets of exposed population. The combination of wildfire risk and travelling time to the nearest shelters made it possible to identify 20% of the WUIs that were priority areas for evacuation in the case of Sertã. In the case of Lousã, 3.4% were identified, because they were highly exposed to wildfire risk and had a travelling time to the nearest shelter of more than 15 min on foot. These results can assist in designing effective pre-fire planning, based on fuel management strategies and/or managing an effective and safe evacuation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complexity of today's scenario has made it necessary to investigate the need for individuals to make choices that entail increasing exposure to risk and uncertainty. Among the individual resources that could help people to cope with situations of uncertainty, the new construct of subjective risk intelligence (SRI), known as a person's ability to effectively weigh the pros and cons of a decision in situations where not all the outcomes are foreseen, would seem to play a prominent role. Considering that personality and coping strategies have been shown to be significantly related in previous research, the present study investigates the relationships between subjective risk intelligence, emotional intelligence, personality traits and coping strategies in both adults and adolescents. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 1390 Italian people, divided into two subsamples of 641 adolescents and 749 adults. The results showed that SRI mediated the roles that personality traits and emotional intelligence have in coping strategies differently in the adult sample, in which the mediating role of SRI was found for avoidance coping, and in the adolescent sample, in which SRI influenced all of the antecedents analysed in the study for almost all of the identified coping strategies. In light of these findings, subjective risk intelligence could be activated to deal with uncertain and risky situations, influencing the choice of effective or ineffective strategies in both adults and adolescents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microplastics are emerging contaminants that have been detected recently in most environmental and biological systems, yet their health risk for humans has not been clearly summarized. Here we review human health risk associated with exposure to microplastics with focus on methods of exposure assessment, hazard identification, dose–response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Hazards include direct hazards, hazards from contaminants released by microplastics, and hazards from microplastic interactions with surrounding contaminants. Microplastics trigger oxidative stress, disrupt metabolism, interfere with gut microflora and gastrointestinal functions, disrupt hepatic, cardiopulmonary and immune systems, and degrade reproductive health. Some additives leached from microplastics such as phthalates are endocrine disruptors and thus impact reproductive health. The interaction of microplastics with other pollutants in the environment induces varied hazards following synergistic or antagonistic effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]