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We find the variance-optimal equivalent martingale measure when multivariate assets are modeled by a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion, and the regimes are represented by a homogeneous continuous time Markov chain. Under this new measure, the Markov chain driving the regimes is no longer homogeneous, which differs from the equivalent martingale measures usually proposed in the literature. We show the solution minimizes the mean-variance hedging error under the objective measure. As argued by \citet{Schweizer:1996}, the variance-optimal equivalent measure naturally extends canonical option pricing results to the case of an incomplete market and the expectation under the proposed measure may be interpreted as an option price. Solutions for the option value and the optimal hedging strategy are easily obtained from Monte Carlo simulations. Two applications are considered.

Selecting the number of regimes in Hidden Markov models is an important problem. There are many criteria that are used to select this number, such as Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), integrated completed likelihood (ICL), deviance information criterion (DIC), and Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC), to name a few. In this article, we introduced goodness-of-fit tests for general Hidden Markov models with covariates, where the distribution of the observations is arbitrary, i.e., continuous, discrete, or a mixture of both. Then, a selection procedure is proposed based on this goodness-of-fit test. The main aim of this article is to compare the classical information criterion with the new criterion, when the outcome is either continuous, discrete or zero-inflated. Numerical experiments assess the finite sample performance of the goodness-of-fit tests, and comparisons between the different criteria are made.

In this article, a copula-based method for mixed regression models is proposed, where the conditional distribution of the response variable, given covariates, is modelled by a parametric family of continuous or discrete distributions, and the effect of a common latent variable pertaining to a cluster is modelled with a factor copula. We show how to estimate the parameters of the copula and the parameters of the margins, and we find the asymptotic behaviour of the estimation errors. Numerical experiments are performed to assess the precision of the estimators for finite samples. An example of an application is given using COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy from several countries. Computations are based on R package CopulaGAMM.

A convergence theorem for martingales with c\`adl\`ag trajectories (right continuous with left limits everywhere) is obtained in the sense of the weak dual topology on Hilbert space, under conditions that are much weaker than those required for any of the usual Skorohod topologies. Examples are provided to show that these conditions are also very easy to check and yield useful asymptotic results, especially when the limit is a mixture of stochastic processes with discontinuities.

In this paper, we study the identifiability and the estimation of the parameters of a copula-based multivariate model when the margins are unknown and are arbitrary, meaning that they can be continuous, discrete, or mixtures of continuous and discrete. When at least one margin is not continuous, the range of values determining the copula is not the entire unit square and this situation could lead to identifiability issues that are discussed here. Next, we propose estimation methods when the margins are unknown and arbitrary, using pseudo log-likelihood adapted to the case of discontinuities. In view of applications to large data sets, we also propose a pairwise composite pseudo log-likelihood. These methodologies can also be easily modified to cover the case of parametric margins. One of the main theoretical result is an extension to arbitrary distributions of known convergence results of rank-based statistics when the margins are continuous. As a by-product, under smoothness assumptions, we obtain that the asymptotic distribution of the estimation errors of our estimators are Gaussian. Finally, numerical experiments are presented to assess the finite sample performance of the estimators, and the usefulness of the proposed methodologies is illustrated with a copula-based regression model for hydrological data. The proposed estimation is implemented in the R package CopulaInference, together with a function for checking identifiability., Comment: 5 figures

In this article, we study tests of independence for data with arbitrary distributions in the non-serial case, i.e., for independent and identically distributed random vectors, as well as in the serial case, i.e., for time series. These tests are derived from copula-based covariances and their multivariate extensions using M\"obius transforms. We find the asymptotic distributions of these statistics under the null hypothesis of independence or randomness, as well as under contiguous alternatives. This enables us to find out locally most powerful test statistics for some alternatives, whatever the margins. Numerical experiments are performed for Wald's type combinations of these statistics to assess the finite sample performance.

When the limiting compensator of a sequence of martingales is continuous, we obtain a weak convergence theorem for the martingales; the limiting process can be written as a Brownian motion evaluated at the compensator and we find sufficient conditions for both processes to be independent. Examples of applications are provided, notably for occupation time processes and statistical estimators of financial volatility measures.

In this paper, we consider pricing of European options and spread options for Hawkes-based model for the limit order book. We introduce multivariate Hawkes process and the multivariable general compound Hawkes process. Exponential multivariate general compound Hawkes processes and limit theorems for them, namely, LLN and FCLT, are considered then. We also consider a special case of one-dimensional EMGCHP and its limit theorems. Option pricing with $1D$ EGCHP in LOB, hedging strategies, and numerical example are presented. We also introduce greeks calculations for those models. Margrabe's spread options valuations with Hawkes-based models for two assets and numerical example are presented. Also, Margrabe's spread option pricing with two $2D$ EMGCHP and numerical example are included. Basket options valuations with numerical example are included. We finally discuss the implied volatility and implied order flow. It reveals the relationship between stock volatility and the order flow in the limit order book system. In this way, the Hawkes-based model can provide more market forecast information than the classical Black-Scholes model.

In this paper, we focus on a new generalization of multivariate general compound Hawkes process (MGCHP), which we referred to as the multivariate general compound point process (MGCPP). Namely, we applied a multivariate point process to model the order flow instead of the Hawkes process. Law of large numbers (LLN) and two functional central limit theorems (FCLTs) for the MGCPP were proved in this work. Applications of the MGCPP in the limit order market were also considered. We provided numerical simulations and comparisons for the MGCPP and MGCHP by applying Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Intel trading data., Comment: 16 pages and 14 figures

In this paper, we find necessary and sufficient conditions so that copula-based conditional distributions of a response variable with respect to covariates, are ordered with respect to the simple stochastic order introduced by Lehmann. These conditions do not depend on the marginal distributions of the random variables. As a result, we have conditions to ensure that the conditional mean and conditional quantiles are monotonic with respect to the covariates., Comment: Some work has been done by other authors. We need to add these references and modify the paper accordingly

In this paper we introduce two new Hawkes processes, namely, compound and regime-switching compound Hawkes processes, to model the price processes in limit order books. We prove Law of Large Numbers and Functional Central Limit Theorems (FCLT) for both processes. The two FCLTs are applied to limit order books where we use these asymptotic methods to study the link between price volatility and order flow in our two models by using the diffusion limits of these price processes. The volatilities of price changes are expressed in terms of parameters describing the arrival rates and price changes. We also present some numerical examples., Comment: 24 pages, 16 figures. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1706.07459

This article is concerned with the fluctuation analysis and the stability properties of a class of one-dimensional Riccati diffusions. These one-dimensional stochastic differential equations exhibit a quadratic drift function and a non-Lipschitz continuous diffusion function. We present a novel approach, combining tangent process techniques, Feynman-Kac path integration, and exponential change of measures, to derive sharp exponential decays to equilibrium. We also provide uniform estimates with respect to the time horizon, quantifying with some precision the fluctuations of these diffusions around a limiting deterministic Riccati differential equation. These results provide a stronger and almost sure version of the conventional central limit theorem. We illustrate these results in the context of ensemble Kalman-Bucy filtering. To the best of our knowledge, the exponential stability and the fluctuation analysis developed in this work are the first results of this kind for this class of nonlinear diffusions.

In this paper we solve the discrete time mean-variance hedging problem when asset returns follow a multivariate autoregressive hidden Markov model. Time dependent volatility and serial dependence are well established properties of financial time series and our model covers both. To illustrate the relevance of our proposed methodology, we first compare the proposed model with the well-known hidden Markov model via likelihood ratio tests and a novel goodness-of-fit test on the S\&P 500 daily returns. Secondly, we present out-of-sample hedging results on S\&P 500 vanilla options as well as a trading strategy based on theoretical prices, which we compare to simpler models including the classical Black-Scholes delta-hedging approach.

We propose a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, extending the recent work of Cont and de Larrard (2013), where the price dynamics are endogenous, resulting from market transactions. We also show that the conditional diffusion limit of the price process is the so-called Brownian meander.

Strong solutions of p-dimensional stochastic differential equations that can be represented locally in explicit simulation form are considered. The following three-way equivalence is established: 1) There exists such a representation from all starting points, 2) the representation pair satisfies a set differential equations, and 3) the stochastic differential equation coefficients satisfy commutation relations. Next, construction theorems, based on a diffeomorphism between the original equation solutions and the strong solutions to a simpler Ito integral equation, with a possible deterministic component, are given. Finally, motivating examples are provided and reference to its importance in filtering and option pricing is given., Comment: 27 pages

Parrondo's paradox is extended to regime switching random walks in random environments. The paradoxical behavior of the resulting random walk is explained by the effect of the random environment. Full characterization of the asymptotic behavior is achieved in terms of the dimensions of some random subspaces occurring in Oseledec's theorem. The regime switching mechanism gives our models a richer and more complex asymptotic behavior than the simple random walks in random environments appearing in the literature, in terms of transience and recurrence.

Continuation refers to the operation by which the cumulative distribution function of a discontinuous random vector is made continuous through multilinear interpolation. The copula that results from the application of this technique to the classical empirical copula is either called the multilinear or the checkerboard copula. As shown by Genest and Ne\v{s}lehov\'{a} (Astin Bull. 37 (2007) 475-515) and Ne\v{s}lehov\'{a} (J. Multivariate Anal. 98 (2007) 544-567), this copula plays a central role in characterizing dependence concepts in discrete random vectors. In this paper, the authors establish the asymptotic behavior of the empirical process associated with the multilinear copula based on $d$-variate count data. This empirical process does not generally converge in law on the space $\mathcal {C}([0,1]^d)$ of continuous functions on $[0,1]^d$, equipped with the uniform norm. However, the authors show that the process converges in $\mathcal{C}(K)$ for any compact $K\subset\mathcal{O}$, where $\mathcal{O}$ is a dense open subset of $[0,1]^d$, whose complement is the Cartesian product of the ranges of the marginal distribution functions. This result is sufficient to deduce the weak limit of many functionals of the process, including classical statistics for monotone trend. It also leads to a powerful and consistent test of independence which is applicable even to sparse contingency tables whose dimension is sample size dependent., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/13-BEJ524 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm)

We study existence, uniqueness and mass conservation of signed measure valued solutions of a class of stochastic evolution equations with respect to the Wiener sheet, including as particular cases the stochastic versions of the regularized two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in vorticity form introduced by Kotelenez., Comment: To appear in Stochastic Processes and their Applications

Building on the work of Schweizer (1995) and Cern and Kallseny (2007), we present discrete time formulas minimizing the mean square hedging error for multidimensional assets. In particular, we give explicit formulas when a regime-switching random walk or a GARCH-type process is utilized to model the returns. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compare the optimal and delta hedging methods., Comment: Cette pr\'epublication appara\^it aussi sur SSRN et les cahiers du GERAD

A discretization scheme for nonnegative diffusion processes is proposed and the convergence of the corresponding sequence of approximate processes is proved using the martingale problem framework. Motivations for this scheme come typically from finance, especially for path-dependent option pricing. The scheme is simple: one only needs to find a nonnegative distribution whose mean and variance satisfy a simple condition to apply it. Then, for virtually any (path-dependent) payoff, Monte Carlo option prices obtained from this scheme will converge to the theoretical price. Examples of models and diffusion processes for which the scheme applies are provided.

Discussion on "Brownian distance covariance" by G\'abor J. Sz\'ekely and Maria L. Rizzo [arXiv:1010.0297], Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS312F the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

Deheuvels [J. Multivariate Anal. 11 (1981) 102--113] and Genest and R\'{e}millard [Test 13 (2004) 335--369] have shown that powerful rank tests of multivariate independence can be based on combinations of asymptotically independent Cram\'{e}r--von Mises statistics derived from a M\"{o}bius decomposition of the empirical copula process. A result on the large-sample behavior of this process under contiguous sequences of alternatives is used here to give a representation of the limiting distribution of such test statistics and to compute their relative local asymptotic efficiency. Local power curves and asymptotic relative efficiencies are compared under familiar classes of copula alternatives., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000000984 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

In this paper, we construct a Malliavin derivative for functionals of square-integrable L\'evy processes and derive a Clark-Ocone formula. The Malliavin derivative is defined via chaos expansions involving stochastic integrals with respect to Brownian motion and Poisson random measure. As an illustration, we compute the explicit martingale representation for the maximum of a L\'evy process., Comment: 30 pages