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Global land use is changing at an unprecedented rate and has been identified as a key driver of habitat loss, fragmentation and species decline in the natural environment. Understanding how land use influences spatial patterns in species abundance, and habitat connectivity at a landscape scale is critical for the survival of wildlife populations. The focal species of my research is the rare greater horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum), which was once widespread across southern England and Wales. However, owing to changes in agricultural land management and the expansion of urban areas, its range has contracted considerably over the last century. Using a series of ecological techniques, including a novel predictive modelling approach, field experiments and social network analysis, this thesis aims to identify which ecological factors affect their activity and movement at a landscape scale. The work also provides conservation practitioners the ability to identify the locations of these impacts, pinch-points, in the wider environment; where strategic planning and mitigation measures can be applied to increase their overall occurrence and abundance in the wider environment. \ud Using a field experiment, I examined how traffic noise can influence the relative activity levels of free-living bats. Overall, I showed that traffic noise can significantly reduce the activity levels of R. ferrumequinum, as well as other bat species, along linear feature. Using a separate field experiment, I determined that the sonic spectrum had a greater negative effect on bat activity than the ultrasonic spectrum. These results therefore suggest that the mode of action is likely to be through general deterrence and avoidance rather than through the masking of echolocation calls. R. ferrumequinum are widely considered to be dependent on linear landscape features such as woodland edges and hedgerows. My research supported this view, and highlighted the particular importance of treelines, which were associated with greater activity than even sympathetically managed hedgerows. However, an important novel finding from my research was that about a third of all activity recorded at paired detectors was derived from the middle of fields. It is therefore important to consider these more open habitats, as well as hedgerows, treelines and woodland edges, when designing and conducting ecological impact assessments for future developments. \ud Bats use the landscape at a large spatial scale, and responses to any particular challenge (such as a new lighting scheme or urban development) are likely to depend on their context within a landscape. For example, the disruption of a commuting route is likely to have a greater impact where only one suitable route exists, compared with scenarios where there are numerous alternatives. To understand better how R. ferrumequinum interacts with the British landscape, I therefore created models of predicted functional connectivity around four maternity roosts using Circuitscape software. Using non-invasive static bat detectors as a method of ground validation, I created robust models predicting R. ferrumequinum movement; which allowed the identification of pinch-points in the landscape, either those areas limiting species movement or highly important for the species conservation. \ud While most research, and the work of ecological practitioners, focuses on the maternity season, hibernation ecology has received much less attention. Yet given that horseshoe bats are known to move roost location frequently during the hibernation period, it is important to understand more about this behaviour. Using social network analysis, I demonstrate that adult males are significantly more central (connected to a higher number of individual bats) in the network during the hibernation period. I found that movements between hibernacula were associated with both age and degree centrality of individual bats, with those more geographically isolated hibernacula playing an important role for the movement of certain individuals at a landscape scale. This highlights that despite low activity in some of these smaller roost locations, they are a conservation priority to decrease the risk of fragmentation and loss of connectivity within the wider landscape.\ud The results of my meta-analysis, which was based on 22 studies, demonstrated the significant negative effects endectocides on Aphodiinae dung beetles. My results suggest that ivermectin has the highest negative effect on the abundance of both adult and large Aphodiinae dung beetles. However, contrasting results were observed for dung beetle occurrence, with adult beetles showing an attraction to dung with endectocides and larvae showing the complete opposite, with poor survival rates and impaired development. Over time this could have significant negative effects on dung beetle populations. \ud The results of this thesis indicate that the landscape-scale conservation of R. ferrumequinum is complex. Considerations need to be given to a suite of factors ranging from the prey items they consume to the physical habitat structures which they utilise. From this research, specific locations and features which have impacts on their movement and activity can be identified, allowing the outputs to be used by decision-makers as a tool to inform local management strategies. The prioritisation of conservation activity for the species can be aided by spatially-explicit models, such as the one I developed using Circuitscape, which bring together multiple input layers to create outputs readily interpretable to practitioners. However, to achieve a successful outcome for this priority species, collaborative efforts from many stakeholders, across boundaries, are required.

Land is constantly changing because of natural and anthropogenic factors. One of the grand challenges facing humanity is the loss of biodiversity, caused by land change, which may affect ecosystem functioning. Attributes of land change, e.g. magnitude, time span, sequence or frequency, can be quantified reliably from remotely-sensed satellite data. Up to now, it was not clear how attributes of past land changes, e.g. those preceding biodiversity sampling, continue to influence local biodiversity across geographic regions and taxonomic groups. This thesis investigates the varying impacts of multiple attributes of land change on biodiversity globally by analysing links between broad-scale data on local biodiversity measures – calculated from the global PREDICTS database - and time series of different remotely-sensed satellite data from the period of 1984 to 2015. Overall past land changes were found to impact local biodiversity more than present differences on land, however with considerable variability among taxonomic groups. Abrupt land changes of greater magnitude, that occurred more recently, reduced local biodiversity measures more, although biodiversity recovered as time passed. Furthermore, impacts of past land change varied depending on trajectories of land-cover types, affecting national and global biodiversity projections. While biodiversity change, quantified from time series of North American breeding bird surveys was correlated with, but not explained by, landscape-wide land changes, the frequency and magnitude of past, instead of concomitant, land changes was more important in explaining biodiversity change. These results indicate that global indicators of the impacts of land change on local biodiversity need to consider lasting in uences of the past as ignoring them would result in incomplete assessments of biodiversity change. Remote sensing can assist in quantifying biologically-relevant attributes of land change in space and time, and such attributes should be incorporated into global assessments and projections of biodiversity change.

This dissertation draws on multi-sited fieldwork to understand the history and development of biodiversity offsetting in Europe and beyond. It situates offsetting as a social technology of governance in the management of resistance and dissent against corporate and state degradation and violence, and as an instrument to flexibilise restrictive legislation imposing limits to industrial expansion in Europe. \ud \ud I analyse offsetting through the lens of corporate and state power and violence, contextualising it in the dominant social economic order, exploring its role in the advancement of social control and accumulation, and in the invisibilisation and entrenchment of the epistemic, physical and slow violence(s) exercised against human and nonhuman nature, in the form of industrialism and extractivism, state control and policing of dissent. \ud \ud While a critical literature on offsetting now contributes to our understanding of the tensions, politics and value struggles around offsetting, it has tended to focus on the ‘novel’ commodification and marketisation aspects of offsetting. It frequently privileges structural explanations rooted in the expansionary market logic unleashed under neoliberal capitalism, while overlooking the long history of the ideology and practice of offsetting, deeply rooted in industrialism, domestication and exploitation of human and nonhuman nature, and the need for corporate and state legitimacy in the face of (increasingly visible) social and ecological degradation and ever-more apparent failures of the green economy. \ud \ud By situating offsetting historically and in its political economic context, this thesis demystifies and denaturalises abstract ideas of the ‘market’. It challenges the emerging hegemony of critical analyses of offsetting that often resort to marketisation and financialisation as explanatory devices and contributes to the theorisation of the ongoing transformation of neoliberal capitalism, statehood and corporate citizenship, as part of wider processes of reconfigurations of governance that are the product of the dialectical relationship between capitalism, the state, and its critics.

Abrupt land change, such as deforestation or agricultural intensification, is a key driver of biodiversity change. Following abrupt land change, local biodiversity often continues to be influenced through biotic lag effects. However, current understanding of how terrestrial biodiversity is impacted by past abrupt land changes is incomplete. Here we show that abrupt land change in the past continues to influence present species assemblages globally. We combine geographically and taxonomically broad data on local biodiversity with quantitative estimates of abrupt land change detected within time series of satellite imagery from 1982 to 2015. Species richness and abundance were 4.2% and 2% lower, respectively, and assemblage composition was altered at sites with an abrupt land change compared to unchanged sites, although impacts differed among taxonomic groups. Biodiversity recovered to levels comparable to unchanged sites after >10 years. Ignoring delayed impacts of abrupt land changes likely results in incomplete assessments of biodiversity change., Abrupt land changes may have long-lasting effects on local biodiversity. Here, Jung et al. show that past abrupt land change reduces species richness and abundance, and alters assemblage composition, with recovery often taking more than 10 years.

Human use of the land (for agriculture and settlements) has a substantial negative effect on biodiversity globally. However, not all species are adversely affected by land use, and indeed, some benefit from the creation of novel habitat. Geographically rare species may be more negatively affected by land use than widespread species, but data limitations have so far prevented global multi-clade assessments of land-use effects on narrow-ranged and widespread species. We analyse a large, global database to show consistent differences in assemblage composition. Compared with natural habitat, assemblages in disturbed habitats have more widespread species on average, especially in urban areas and the tropics. All else being equal, this result means that human land use is homogenizing assemblage composition across space. Disturbed habitats show both reduced abundances of narrow-ranged species and increased abundances of widespread species. Our results are very important for biodiversity conservation because narrow-ranged species are typically at higher risk of extinction than widespread species. Furthermore, the shift to more widespread species may also affect ecosystem functioning by reducing both the contribution of rare species and the diversity of species’ responses to environmental changes among local assemblages., Author summary Previous studies have shown that human use of the land, mainly for agriculture and settlements, causes a detectable but relatively small net loss of biodiversity. However, not all species are affected equally, and some species even benefit from the new habitats we create. One group of species of particular concern for biodiversity conservation are those that inhabit only a small area. These narrow-ranged species are at higher risk of extinction because it is more likely that any threats to the species (including human land use) will affect their entire range. Such species can also play a unique role in the healthy functioning of ecosystems. Here, we show that the observed small declines in biodiversity in human-disturbed land can be broken down into large declines in narrow-ranged species, offset by increases in wide-ranged species. All else being equal, this finding means that ecological communities are losing their distinctive, narrow-ranged species and are becoming dominated by the same species everywhere, leading to a reduction in global biodiversity. The divergent effects of human land use on narrow-ranged and widespread species are important for the conservation of already threatened, narrow-ranged species and may lead to a negative effect on the functioning of ecosystems.

The age profile of populations fundamentally affects their conservation status. Yet, age is frequently difficult to assess in wild animals. Here, we assessed the use of DNA methylation of homologous genes to establish the age structure of a rare and elusive wild mammal: the Bechstein's bat (Myotis bechsteinii). We collected 62 wing punches from individuals whose ages were known as a result of a long-term banding study. DNA methylation was measured at seven CpG sites from three genes, which have previously shown age-associated changes in humans and laboratory mice. All CpG sites from the tested genes showed a significant relationship between DNA methylation and age, both individually and in combination (multiple linear regression R2 = 0.58, p

Eighty percent of the world’s population are currently exposed to light-polluted skies, and the Milky Way is no longer visible to more than a third of humanity. The pace the light pollution is increasing is faster than global population growth and economic development. While environmental conditions at night are being dramatically and rapidly altered, circadian rhythms, behaviour and ecology of plants and animals are imminently influenced. In the same time, effects of artificial lighting, various illumination schemes and spectra on biodiversity, including bats, are currently insufficiently understood, whereas only a vague notion of required mitigation and compensation activities exists among decision-makers and other parties involved in lighting projects. Although the bats are almost exclusively nocturnal and extremely sensitive to multiple effects of light pollution, its negative impact on bats alongside essential measures needed to preserve unfragmented nightscapes for these animals are often disregarded during impact assessments, planning and operation. \ud \ud In this volume, we tried to compile available evidence related to the effect of artificial light at night on the European bats. Based on the current state of knowledge, solutions are proposed concerning possible ways to avoid, mitigate and compensate the adverse effects which lighting projects may have on bats and their functional habitats. We also outlined research priorities for future studies, required for in-depth understanding of the problem and assessing efficiency of proposed mitigative measures.

Overexploitation of the earth’s resources is causing concern for ecosystem health globally and demands clear strategies for biodiversity conservation. The development of non-invasive and cost-effective tools for ecosystem assessment is an urgent global imperative. In this context, the nascent discipline of ecoacoustics provides a new framework to assess the effects of habitat degradation on human and non-human populations. Sound is considered as a core component and indicator of ecological processes and therefore can be investigated to infer ecological information about populations, communities and landscapes. A subfield of this discipline, soundscape ecology, provides fresh perspectives on understanding coupled natural-human dynamics. Despite the contributions of ecoacoustic methods in biodiversity assessment, landscape ecology and conservation biology some factors are constraining their full potential. This is principally due to challenges in interpreting the acoustic community through current acoustic metrics. Moreover, research gaps in understanding coupled natural-human dynamics through soundscape analysis have been identified, which could make significant further contributions to conservation biology in the near future.\ud \ud This thesis contributes to ecoacoustics from the perspective of conservation biology. The relevance and potential use of acoustic methods for assessing biodiversity and exploring social dimensions within conservation biology are presented throughout. Chapters include both Ecological and Social research components. A systematic review of publications on soundscape and its association with ecological and human wellbeing contextualizes the following empirical work, in chapter 1. Chapter 2 provides an evaluation into how effectively current acoustic metrics (ACI, BI, AE and H) reflect the status of wildlife populations along a gradient of forest disturbance. A novel approach to rapidly assess habitat status using automatic detection of indicator species (IS) is presented in chapter 3. Empirical studies are complemented by an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of acoustic sensors for assessing biodiversity, in chapter 4.\ud \ud Finally, social factors are addressed in chapter 5, which presents a novel approach for evaluating the human and environment relationship through soundscape perception analysis.\ud \ud The acoustic analyses explored show potential in analysis of ecological and social research dimensions in conservation biology. The systematic review shows that soundscape, and its association with wellbeing, evolved from an interest in sounds, and their influence on health, into a multidimensional and integrative concept incorporating multiple domains of wellbeing (Health, Social and Cultural Wellness and Ecological Integrity). Within the Ecological component in chapter 2, although significant differences in acoustic biodiversity metrics along sites were found, relevant qualitative biodiversity values that describe the status of wildlife populations were not reflected through the acoustic indices. To tackle this issue, I observed that the tool for automatic detection of IS was effective for rapid evaluation of habitat status; however, it should only be used for obtaining data of presence/absence of species. The combination of community level (acoustic indices) and individual level (automatic detection of indicator species) acoustic analysis showed a great potential as a tool for rapid evaluation of habitats. Moreover, I found that use of acoustic sensors was effective for registering high number of birds and indicator species; however, it is best applied in conducting multiple surveys or long term monitoring due to expensive equipment costs. Within the Social component I observed that soundscape perception analysis generated insights into human-environment relationships and highlighted the implications of habitat degradation on humans. Sounds of social relevance were also identified, which could be used for determining priority areas for conservation. Great potential for investigating social implications of habitat degradation through acoustic methods was revealed.\ud \ud The acoustic approaches investigated proved to be useful tools in understanding the dynamics of ecosystems, by exploring both ecological and social dimensions, and contribute to knowledge in conservation biology. Further research on the application of acoustic methods in conservation biology is recommended.

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a comprehensive, internationally agreed-upon set of objectives aiming to vastly improve economic, social and planetary well-being. How exactly to achieve these goals is now a point of discussion at many fora around the world. At one such forum, a Wilton Park Roundtable, an international group of stakeholders and experts found the efficiency of implementation to be a central issue. This efficiency in turn is related to the fact that the goals are all interconnected: In some cases steps towards achieving one goal may hinder the achievement of one or more other goals, leading to unintended “trade-offs”, or inefficiencies in implementation. But at least as often, actions towards a particular goal can have a positive influence on other goals, setting up beneficial “synergies” among the SDGs. Actions that take advantage of these synergies are key to implementing them efficiently because many different goals can be achieved at the same time and fewer resources are needed to achieve the whole set of goals. Saving resources would be a major payoff to countries confronted with the high costs of implementing the SDGs. The challenge now is to sort through the large number of possible interactions among SDGs to uncover and exploit the most important synergies while minimising the effects of trade-offs. Much can be done to achieve this at all levels, from local to global, including raising awareness about SDG interactions, reorienting investments, and reforming governance.

Overexploitation is one of the main pressures driving wildlife closer to extinction, yet broad-scale data to evaluate species’ declines are limited. Using African pangolins (Family: Pholidota) as a case study, we demonstrate that collating local-scale data can provide crucial information on regional trends in exploitation of threatened species to inform conservation actions and policy. We estimate that 0.4-2.7 million pangolins are hunted annually in Central African forests. The number of pangolins hunted has increased by ∼150% and the proportion of pangolins of all vertebrates hunted increased from 0.04% to 1.83% over the past four decades. However, there were no trends in pangolins observed at markets, suggesting use of alternative supply chains. We found evidence that the price of giant (Smutsia gigantea) and arboreal (Phataginus sp.) pangolins in urban markets has increased, mirroring trends in Asian pangolins. Efforts and resources are needed to increase law enforcement and population monitoring, and investigate linkages between subsistence hunting and illegal wildlife trade. Overexploitation is one of the main pressures driving wildlife closer to extinction, yet broad-scale data to evaluate species’ declines are limited. Using African pangolins (Family: Pholidota) as a case study, we demonstrate that collating local-scale data can provide crucial information on regional trends in exploitation of threatened species to inform conservation actions and policy. We estimate that 0.4-2.7 million pangolins are hunted annually in Central African forests. The number of pangolins hunted has increased by ∼150% and the proportion of pangolins of all vertebrates hunted increased from 0.04% to 1.83% over the past four decades. However, there were no trends in pangolins observed at markets, suggesting use of alternative supply chains. We found evidence that the price of giant (Smutsia gigantea) and arboreal (Phataginus sp.) pangolins in urban markets has increased, mirroring trends in Asian pangolins. Efforts and resources are needed to increase law enforcement and population monitoring, and investigate linkages between subsistence hunting and illegal wildlife trade.

One way the public can engage in insect conservation is through wildlife gardening, including the growing of insect-friendly flowers as sources of nectar. However, plant varieties differ in the types of insects they attract. To determine which garden plants attracted which butterflies, we counted butterflies nectaring on 11 varieties of summer-flowering garden plants in a rural garden in East Sussex, UK. These plants were all from a list of 100 varieties considered attractive to British butterflies, and included the five varieties specifically listed by the UK charity Butterfly Conservation as best for summer nectar. A total of 2659 flower visits from 14 butterfly and one moth species were observed. We performed a principal components analysis which showed contrasting patterns between the species attracted to Origanum vulgare and Buddleia davidii. The “butterfly bush” Buddleia attracted many nymphalines, such as the peacock, Inachis io, but very few satyrines such as the gatekeeper, Pyronia tithonus, which mostly visited Origanum. Eupatorium cannibinum had the highest Simpson’s Diversity score of 0.75, while Buddleia and Origanum were lower, scoring 0.66 and 0.50 respectively. No one plant was good at attracting all observed butterfly species, as each attracted only a subset of the butterfly community. We conclude that to create a butterfly-friendly garden, a variety of plant species are required as nectar sources for butterflies. Furthermore, garden plant recommendations can probably benefit from being more precise as to the species of butterfly they attract.

Marine industries face a number of risks that necessitate careful analysis prior to making decisions on the siting of operations and facilities. An important emerging regulatory framework on environmental sustainability for business operations is the International Finance Corporation’s Performance Standard 6 (IFC PS6). Within PS6, identification of biodiversity significance is articulated through the concept of “Critical Habitat”, a definition developed by the IFC and detailed through criteria aligned with those that support internationally accepted biodiversity designations. No publicly available tools have been developed in either the marine or terrestrial realm to assess the likelihood of sites or operations being located within PS6-defined Critical Habitat. This paper presents a starting point towards filling this gap in the form of a preliminary global map that classifies more than 13 million km2 of marine and coastal areas of importance for biodiversity (protected areas, Key Biodiversity Areas [KBA], sea turtle nesting sites, cold- and warm-water corals, seamounts, seagrass beds, mangroves, saltmarshes, hydrothermal vents and cold seeps) based on their overlap with Critical Habitat criteria, as defined by IFC. In total, 5798×103 km2 (1.6%) of the analysis area (global ocean plus coastal land strip) were classed as Likely Critical Habitat, and 7526×103 km2 (2.1%) as Potential Critical Habitat; the remainder (96.3%) were Unclassified. The latter was primarily due to the paucity of biodiversity data in marine areas beyond national jurisdiction and/or in deep waters, and the comparatively fewer protected areas and KBAs in these regions. Globally, protected areas constituted 65.9% of the combined Likely and Potential Critical Habitat extent, and KBAs 29.3%, not accounting for the overlap between these two features. Relative Critical Habitat extent in Exclusive Economic Zones varied dramatically between countries. This work is likely to be of particular use for industries operating in the marine and coastal realms as an early screening aid prior to in situ Critical Habitat assessment; to financial institutions making investment decisions; and to those wishing to implement good practice policies relevant to biodiversity management. Supplementary material (available online) includes other global datasets considered, documentation and justification of biodiversity feature classification, detail of IFC PS6 criteria/scenarios, and coverage calculations.

There is increasing evidence that large-bodied primates play important roles as seed dispersers and in the maintenance of tree diversity in forest ecosystems. In this study we compared forest regeneration at two sites with differing primate abundances in the Ecuadorian Chocoan rainforest. We predicted: (1) significant differences in primate abundance between the two sites; (2) higher understory tree species richness and density at the site with greater primate abundance; (3) the site with lower primate abundance characterized by tree species dispersed by non-primate biotic agents and/or abiotic factors. We compared two sites, Tesoro Escondido (TE) a campesino cooperative, and the El Pambilar (EP) wildlife refuge that both maintain populations of mantled howler monkey (Alouatta palliata), the brown-headed spider monkey (Ateles fusciceps fusciceps) and the capuchin monkey (Cebus capucinus). We characterized canopy structure by point-quadrant sampling, determined primate abundance and sampled seedlings/saplings in 1 m2 plots, classifying tree species based on three dispersal syndromes: adapted for primate dispersal, dispersed by other biological agents, and abiotic dispersal. We compared sites in terms of primate abundance (groups and individuals observed per day) and regeneration characteristics (overall density, species richness, and dispersal syndrome). We carried out within site comparisons and constructed understory tree species accumulation curves. Overall the forests were structurally similar - with significantly higher densities of A. f. fusciceps at TE. Encounter rates for the other two primate species were similar at both sites. Understory tree density and species richness was significantly higher in TE with no stabilization of tree species accumulation curves. The species accumulation curve for understory trees at EP stabilized. Higher densities and species richness of primate dispersed tree species were observed at TE, with non-primate biotically dispersed tree species the dominant dispersal syndrome at both sites. Our observations are consistent with those from other studies investigating the role of large-bodied frugivorous primates in forest regeneration, and point to a general pattern: future lowland tropical forest tree diversity depends on maintaining robust populations of large primate species in these systems. It is highly probable that the maintenance of high levels of tree diversity in Chocoan rainforests is dependent on the conservation of its largest resident primate, the critically endangered brown-headed spider monkey (A. f. fusciceps). Rev. Biol. Trop. 64 (2): 493-506. Epub 2016 June 01. ResumenHa habido un incremento de la evidencia sobre el importante papel ecológico de los primates grandes como dispersores de semillas para el mantenimiento de la diversidad del bosque. Este estudio compara la regeneración del bosque en dos sitios con diferente abundancia de primates en el Chocó ecuatoriano. Las predicciones son: (1) la abundancia de primates será significativamente diferente en los dos sitios; (2) la riqueza de especies y la densidad de plantas del sotobosque será mayor en la localidad con mayor abundancia de primates y, (3) la localidad con menos primates tendrá mayor riqueza de especies y densidad de plantas que aquellas especies dispersadas por otros mecanismos bióticos. Se compararon dos sitios: una cooperativa campesina (TE) y un Refugio de Vida Silvestre (EP). Allí habitan tres especies de primates: el aullador negro (Alouatta palliata), el mono araña de cabeza café (Ateles fusciceps fusciceps) y el mono capuchino (Cebus capucinus). Se caracterizó la estructura del dosel usando muestreos en punto-cuadrante, se determinó la abundancia de primates y se muestrearon plántulas en parcelas de 1 m2, clasificando las especies de acuerdo con tres síndromes de dispersión: dispersadas por primates, dispersadas por otros agentes bióticos y dispersadas por agentes abióticos. Se compararon ambos sitios en términos de abundancia de primates (grupos e individuos por día) y características de la regeneración (densidad de plantas, riqueza de especies, y síndrome de dispersión). Se hicieron comparaciones en cada sitio y se construyeron curvas de acumulación de especies. El bosque fue estructuralmente similar, con una abundancia mayor de A. f. fusciceps en TE. Los encuentros para las otras dos especies de primates fueron similares en ambos sitios. La densidad y riqueza de plántulas del sotobosque fue significativamente mayor en TE y la curva de acumulación de especies no se estabilizó pero sí lo hizo en EP. Se observó mayor densidad y riqueza de plántulas dispersadas por primates en TE con dominancia del grupo de plántulas expuestas a otros agentes bióticos y abióticos en ambos sitios. Los resultados son consistentes con los de otros estudios que investigan el papel de los grandes primates frugívoros en la regeneración del bosque y puntualizan un patrón general: la diversidad futura de los bosques tropicales de tierras bajas podría depender del mantenimiento de poblaciones robustas de primates grandes. Es probable que la alta diversidad de árboles en los bosques lluviosos del Chocó dependa de la conservación de sus primates, entre ellos el mono araña de cabeza café, una especie críticamente amenazada.

The Bechstein’s bat (Myotis bechsteinii) is a rare sedentary bat considered to be highly reliant on the presence of ancient woodland. Understanding the genetic connectivity and population structure of such elusive mammals is important for assessing their conservation status. In this study, we report the genetic diversity and structure of M. bechsteinii across Britain and Europe. Assessments were made using 14 microsatellite markers and a 747 bp region of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. Nuclear DNA (microsatellites) showed high levels of genetic diversity and little inbreeding across the species range, though genetic diversity was slightly lower in Britain than in mainland Europe. Bayesian and spatial PCA analysis showed a clear separation between the British and European sites. Within Europe, the Italian population south of the Alps was isolated from the other sites. In Britain, there was genetic structuring between the northern and southern part of the geographical range. Despite there being little genetic divergence in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences throughout most of Europe, the mtDNA patterns in Britain confirmed this separation of northern and southern populations. Such genetic structuring within Britain—in the absence of any obvious physical barriers—suggests that other factors such as land-use may limit gene-flow.

Since the 2015 launch of the Rockefeller Foundation Lancet Commission on planetary health,1 an enormous groundswell of interest in planetary health education has emerged across many disciplines, institutions, and geographical regions. Advancing these global efforts in planetary health education will equip the next generation of scholars to address crucial questions in this emerging field and support the development of a community of practice. To provide a foundation for the growing interest and efforts in this field, the Planetary Health Alliance has facilitated the first attempt to create a set of principles for planetary health education that intersect education at all levels, across all scales, and in all regions of the world—ie, a set of cross-cutting principles.

This thesis argues for the need for a more comprehensive discussion of biodiversity use in relation to enhancing benefits of this use for biodiverse countries and promoting more equitable sharing of these benefits. The findings from this doctoral research reveal that biodiversity-based innovation is a social shaping process that has resulted in large benefits. The cumulative capability to use species from biodiversity gives meanings that contribute to the species shaping process, with organisations and institutional changes providing direction and increasing the rate of the shaping process. In showing how innovation takes place and how the appropriation of benefits occurs, this research contributes to studies on science policy and innovation in relation, especially, to biodiversity-based innovation.\ud The thesis introduces the Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Nagoya Protocol as representing change to the governance of biodiversity. The theoretical approach draws on evolutionary and institutional economics, both of which inform and extend a question that is central in the sociology of technology: That is how are technology (innovation understood as an output) and social practices shaped collectively? Three cases are used to trace what occurs in the shaping process of species from biodiversity: (i) The Jersey cow is a breed within the species Bos Taurus or modern taurine cattle. The isolated character of Jersey delimited the scope of the breed at a point in time when it was being bred locally and allow us to identify its shaping as a ‘technology’, and the broader diffusion of its use. The Jersey cow is used to introduce the theoretical framework and the analysis. (ii) Maca, originally from Peru, is a root crop with nutritional and, allegedly, fertility enhancing properties. It was domesticated in Peru and only a few world regions have conditions favouring its production. Maca is commercialised as flour and used as a raw material. (iii) Quinua has great potential as a staple food crop. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) declared 2013 to be the International Year of Quinoa on the basis of its unique and nutritious character. Three Andean countries (Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru) report exports of quinua grain, although dozens of countries around the world are engaged in performing agronomic testing for its commercial production. A comparative analysis of the three cases helps to identify the science and technology policy issues related to implementation of the CBD and the Nagoya Protocol. The case studies demonstrate the innovation process of species from biodiversity. Benefits arise from the diffusion of the use of the species (via commercialisation), which accrued to individuals or groups. The characterisation of the innovation process highlights how the voices and agency of actors and organisations affected the shaping process. The governance over the goods that emerged from the use of the species defined the appropriation of benefits.

The UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), The Rockefeller Foundation (RF), and the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) recognise that the development challenges of the 21st century require both a shift in thinking and actions that prepare us for the future, while enabling more effective development interventions today. These organisations are establishing a new initiative: 'Towards a Sustainable Earth: Environment-human Systems and the UN Global Goals' (TaSE) as part of their commitment to seeing the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (also known as Global Goals) become a reality. The core premise of the TaSE initiative is that environment-human interactions must be central to all development. \ud \ud The TaSE initiative is convening a meeting at The Rockefeller Foundation Bellagio Centre (7-11 November 2016) to identify the major research and innovation questions relevant to the achievement of the overarching ambition of this initiative. To help focus discussions during this meeting, NERC commissioned the Sussex Sustainability Research Programme (SSRP) at the University of Sussex and the UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) to produce a “synthesis of past and current research and innovation relating to the policy landscape surrounding the environment-human relationships and systems that interact across the UN Global Goals”. \ud The commissioned work is encapsulated in this report, Global Goals mapping: the environment-human landscape. For each Goal, the first part of this report summarises the role of environment-human interactions and synthesises relevant research evidence, key innovations and policies, and knowledge and research gaps.\ud \ud The syntheses of research evidence, key innovations and policies presented for individual Global Goals show that environment-human interactions are important for the achievement of all of the Goals. However, the number of environment-human interactions, and the extent to which these interactions need to be considered for achieving each Goal, varies among Global Goals. Although research, innovation and policy have advanced substantially since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, knowledge and research gaps related to environment-human interactions remain for all Goals. \ud \ud The Global Goals were conceived as an 'indivisible whole'. The Goals relate to and depend on each other, but relationships between Goals need to be better understood. Previous analyses have begun to explore relationships including synergies and possible conflicts between the Goals from a number of different perspectives and differ widely in their conclusions. While many highlight the role of the more environmentally-focused Goals in underpinning sustainable development, none specifically focuses on environment-human interactions, which are the focus of the TaSE initiative and crucial to the achievement of the Goals. \ud \ud This report uses a new analysis to suggest which relationships between Global Goals may be most influenced by environment-human interactions. It is based on a pairwise view of relationships between Goals, assessing the influence that action (research, policy, innovation and/or management) towards one Goal may have on the potential for achieving others. It highlights 20 pairwise relationships between Goals where these influences may be especially strong, and illustrates for some of these how the knowledge and research gaps identified in Part 1 are relevant to the relationships between the Goals. In reality relationships among Goals are more complex and multidimensional than a pairwise analysis can illustrate, but visualising all connections among them is challenging. Further knowledge gaps and challenges related to the trade-offs, synergies and unintended consequences of the relationships among Goals will need to be addressed to achieve all 17 Goals. \ud \ud In order to understand relationships among Global Goals and prioritize action, including research, it is essential to consider multiple cross-cutting factors, including: temporal and spatial scales of action and impact; context for the action, whether local or other; the (multi) directionality of the relationships among Goals; thresholds and tipping points; number and types of people affected; human behaviour; governance, institutions and power; existence and accessibility of different types of knowledge; and the feasibility of obtaining and scaling-up research results and innovations by 2030. Several approaches have attempted to tackle interconnected challenges, including nexus thinking, pathways, leverage points, indigenous and local knowledge, integrated environmental assessments and integrated modelling. However, there is a need for more work and holistic approaches to achieve all 17 Goals.\ud \ud The syntheses of research evidence, innovations and policies regarding environment-human interactions relevant to each Global Goal and the analysis of the relationships among Goals provide a basis for identifying priority areas for new research, innovation and policy. The Bellagio Group has a vital role to play in building on this to help the TaSE initiative identify a research, innovation and research translation agenda in support of the Global Goals.

Background \ud New Guinea has the third largest tropical rainforest on Earth. However, one quarter of the forests of Papua New Guinea (PNG, New Guinea’s eastern half) have been cleared or degraded, nearly half through commercial logging.Sustainable development requires supporting good health (Sustainable Development Goal [SDG] 3) and protecting life on land (SDG 15). To remote communities in PNG with low levels of health provision, these goals can seem in conflict. Logging companies’ offer of roads and income can partly extinguish the remoteness that bars access to health services, making desire for health a driver for forest destruction and erosion of health related ecosystem services. Conservation success thus requires synergies be developed with delivery of other SDGs, particularly those pertaining to health. We aim to provide a model of integrated health and conservation in PNGs rainforests.\ud \ud Methods\ud We are mapping and piloting biological, anthropological, and medical methods to address SDGs on health and biodiversity, focusing first on scabies and fungal diseases. At Wanang, team members have a long term collaboration with nine clans with unmet health needs who collectively chose to preserve their 10,000 hectare forest whilst surrounding communities allowed logging. Similar collaborations are being developed along an altitudinal transect on Mt.Wilheim (4,509m). Stage 1 of Surfaces will (i) systematically map evidence on integrated conservation and health programmes, (ii) conduct clinical examinations and rapid anthropological assessments to understand medical needs, and survey skin disease, and (iii) produce a case study of the Wanang agreement, based on interviews with participants. This will lay the foundation for a multi-year health intervention and interdisciplinary study. \ud \ud Findings\ud We are in the projects’ early stages (so do not yet have findings), and would appreciate advice and suggestions of collaboration from others in the Planetary Health community.\ud \ud Funding\ud Sussex Sustainability Research Programme, University of Sussex, UK. \ud \ud Contributions\ud All authors have commented on multiple drafts and approved the final version of the abstract for publication. \ud \ud Conflicts of interest\ud We declare we have no conflicts of interest. \ud \ud Acknowledgments\ud We thank the projects partner communities; New Guinea Binatang Research Centre; and our advisory group.

The international trade in night monkeys (Aotus spp.), found throughout Central and South America, has been regulated by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) since 1975. We present a quantitative analysis of this trade from all 9 range countries, over 4 decades, and compare domestic legislation to CITES regulations. Night monkeys were exported from 8 of the 9 habitat countries, totalling 5,968 live individuals and 7,098 specimens, with trade of live individuals declining over time. In terms of species, the most commonly traded was Aotus nancymaae (present in Brazil, Colombia, Peru) followed by A. vociferans (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru) and A. zonalis (Colombia, Panama). There was no significant correlation between levels of trade and species' geographic range size or the number of countries in which a species occurs. Five countries have legislation that meets CITES requirements for implementation, whereas the other 4 countries' legislation showed deficiencies. Research conducted in Colombia, Peru, and Brazil suggests significant cross-border trade not captured in official international trade registers. Although international trade has diminished, current trends suggest that populations of rarer species may be under unsustainable pressure. Further research is needed to quantify real trade numbers occurring between habitat countries.

Land-use change is the single biggest driver of biodiversity loss in the tropics. Biodiversity models can be useful tools to inform policymakers and conservationists of the likely response of species to anthropogenic pressures, including land-use change. However, such models generalize biodiversity responses across wide areas and many taxa, potentially missing important characteristics of particular sites or clades. Comparisons of biodiversity models with independently collected field data can help us understand the local factors that mediate broad-scale responses. We collected independent bird occurrence and abundance data along two elevational transects in Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania and the Taita Hills, Kenya. We estimated the local response to land use and compared our estimates with modelled local responses based on a large database of many different taxa across Africa. To identify the local factors mediating responses to land use, we compared environmental and species assemblage information between sites in the independent and African-wide datasets. Bird species richness and abundance responses to land use in the independent data followed similar trends as suggested by the African-wide biodiversity model, however the land-use classification was too coarse to capture fully the variability introduced by local agricultural management practices. A comparison of assemblage characteristics showed that the sites on Kilimanjaro and the Taita Hills had higher proportions of forest specialists in croplands compared to the Africa-wide average. Local human population density, forest cover and vegetation greenness also differed significantly between the independent and Africa-wide datasets. Biodiversity models including those variables performed better, particularly in croplands, but still could not accurately predict the magnitude of local species responses to most land uses, probably because local features of the land management are still missed. Overall, our study demonstrates that local factors mediate biodiversity responses to land use and cautions against applying biodiversity models to local contexts without prior knowledge of which factors are locally relevant.

Crossing “safe” limits for biodiversity loss The planetary boundaries framework attempts to set limits for biodiversity loss within which ecological function is relatively unaffected. Newbold et al. present a quantitative global analysis of the extent to which the proposed planetary boundary has been crossed (see the Perspective by Oliver). Using over 2 million records for nearly 40,000 terrestrial species, they modeled the response of biodiversity to land use and related pressures and then estimated, at a spatial resolution of ∼1 km 2 , the extent and spatial patterns of changes in local biodiversity. Across 65% of the terrestrial surface, land use and related pressures have caused biotic intactness to decline beyond 10%, the proposed “safe” planetary boundary. Changes have been most pronounced in grassland biomes and biodiversity hotspots. Science , this issue p. 288 ; see also p. 220

Protected areas are widely considered essential for biodiversity conservation. However, few global studies have demonstrated that protection benefits a broad range of species. Here, using a new global biodiversity database with unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage, we compare four biodiversity measures at sites sampled in multiple land uses inside and outside protected areas. Globally, species richness is 10.6% higher and abundance 14.5% higher in samples taken inside protected areas compared with samples taken outside, but neither rarefaction-based richness nor endemicity differ significantly. Importantly, we show that the positive effects of protection are mostly attributable to differences in land use between protected and unprotected sites. Nonetheless, even within some human-dominated land uses, species richness and abundance are higher in protected sites. Our results reinforce the global importance of protected areas but suggest that protection does not consistently benefit species with small ranges or increase the variety of ecological niches., Protected areas are thought essential for biodiversity conservation, but few studies confirm that protection benefits species. Here, Gray and Hill et al. analyse a global, taxonomically broad database to show that local species richness and abundance are higher inside protected areas than outside.

Currently, human society is predominantly powered by fossil fuels—coal, oil and natural gas—yet also ultimately depends on goods and services provided by biodiversity. Fossil fuel extraction impacts biodiversity indirectly through climate change and by increasing accessibility, and directly through habitat loss and pollution. In contrast to the indirect effects, quantification of the direct impacts has been relatively neglected. To address this, we analyse the potential threat to > 37,000 species and > 200,000 protected areas globally from the locations of present and future fossil fuel extraction in marine and terrestrial environments. Sites that are currently exploited have higher species richness and endemism than unexploited sites, whereas known future hydrocarbon activities will predominantly move into less biodiverse locations. We identify 181 ‘high‐risk’ locations where oil or gas extraction suitability coincides with biodiversity importance, making conflicts between extraction and conservation probable. In total, protected areas are located on US$3‐15 trillion of unexploited hydrocarbon reserves, posing challenges and potentially opportunities for protected area management and sustainable financing.

Pangolins (Pholidota: Manidae) are hunted and traded for their meat and scales. We conducted preliminary analyses on the hunting and sale at markets of four species of pangolin across Sub-Saharan Africa based on data from the OFFTAKE database. Our analyses show that all four species of African pangolin are hunted and sold at markets throughout much of Sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of pangolins as part of the total vertebrates hunted has increased significantly during the 43 years, from 1972-2014, for which we have data.

The authors acknowledge financial support from the EPSRC grant EP/J016780/1. AM and CV acknowledge financial support from the Leverhulme Trust Research Project Grant (RPG-2014-149). This research was started while CV was visiting Japan as a 2013 Japanese Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Summer Fellow (http://www.jsps.go.jp/). This research was finalized whilst TS, CV and AM were participants in the Isaac Newton Institute Program, Coupling Geometric PDEs with Physics for Cell Morphology, Motility and Pattern Formation. This work (AM) has received funding from the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 642866. AM was partially supported by a grant from the Simons Foundation. Unsolved Problem The development of eyespots on the wing surface of butterflies of the family Nympalidae is one of the most studied examples of biological pattern formation. However, little is known about the mechanism that determines the number and precise locations of eyespots on the wing. Eyespots develop around signaling centers, called foci, that are located equidistant from wing veins along the midline of a wing cell (an area bounded by veins). A fundamental question that remains unsolved is, why a certain wing cell develops an eyespot, while other wing cells do not. Key Idea and Model We illustrate that the key to understanding focus point selection may be in the venation system of the wing disc. Our main hypothesis is that changes in morphogen concentration along the proximal boundary veins of wing cells govern focus point selection. Based on previous studies, we focus on a spatially two-dimensional reaction-diffusion system model posed in the interior of each wing cell that describes the formation of focus points. Using finite element based numerical simulations, we demonstrate that variation in the proximal boundary condition is sufficient to robustly select whether an eyespot focus point forms in otherwise identical wing cells. We also illustrate that this behavior is robust to small perturbations in the parameters and geometry and moderate levels of noise. Hence, we suggest that an anterior-posterior pattern of morphogen concentration along the proximal vein may be the main determinant of the distribution of focus points on the wing surface. In order to complete our model, we propose a two stage reaction-diffusion system model, in which an one-dimensional surface reaction-diffusion system, posed on the proximal vein, generates the morphogen concentrations that act as non-homogeneous Dirichlet (i.e., fixed) boundary conditions for the two-dimensional reaction-diffusion model posed in the wing cells. The two-stage model appears capable of generating focus point distributions observed in nature. Result We therefore conclude that changes in the proximal boundary conditions are sufficient to explain the empirically observed distribution of eyespot focus points on the entire wing surface. The model predicts, subject to experimental verification, that the source strength of the activator at the proximal boundary should be lower in wing cells in which focus points form than in those that lack focus points. The model suggests that the number and locations of eyespot foci on the wing disc could be largely controlled by two kinds of gradients along two different directions, that is, the first one is the gradient in spatially varying parameters such as the reaction rate along the anterior-posterior direction on the proximal boundary of the wing cells, and the second one is the gradient in source values of the activator along the veins in the proximal-distal direction of the wing cell. Publisher PDF

Unsustainable exploitation of wild animals is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity and to millions of people depending on wild meat for food and income. The international conservation and development community has committed to implementing plans for sustainable use of natural resources and has requested development of monitoring systems of bushmeat offtake and trade. Although offtake monitoring systems and indicators for marine species are more developed, information on harvesting terrestrial species is limited. Building on approaches developed to monitor exploitation of fisheries and population trends, we have proposed two novel indicators for harvested terrestrial species: the mean body mass indicator (MBMI) assessing whether hunters are relying increasingly on smaller species over time, as a measure of defaunation, by tracking body mass composition of harvested species within samples across various sites and dates; and the offtake pressure indicator (OPI) as a measure of harvesting pressure on groups of wild animals within a region by combining multiple time series of the number of harvested individuals across species. We applied these two indicators to recently compiled data for West and Central African mammals and birds. Our exploratory analyses show that the MBMI of harvested mammals decreased but that of birds rose between 1966/1975 and 2010. For both mammals and birds the OPI increased substantially during the observed time period. Given our results, time-series data and information collated from multiple sources are useful to investigate trends in body mass of hunted species and offtake volumes. In the absence of comprehensive monitoring systems, we suggest that the two indicators developed in our study are adequate proxies of wildlife offtake, which together with additional data can inform conservation policies and actions at regional and global scales.

Remotely sensed data - available at medium to high resolution across global spatial and temporal scales - are a valuable resource for ecologists. In particular, products from NASA's MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), providing twice-daily global coverage, have been widely used for ecological applications. We present MODISTools, an R package designed to improve the accessing, downloading, and processing of remotely sensed MODIS data. MODISTools automates the process of data downloading and processing from any number of locations, time periods, and MODIS products. This automation reduces the risk of human error, and the researcher effort required compared to manual per-location downloads. The package will be particularly useful for ecological studies that include multiple sites, such as meta-analyses, observation networks, and globally distributed experiments. We give examples of the simple, reproducible workflow that MODISTools provides and of the checks that are carried out in the process. The end product is in a format that is amenable to statistical modeling. We analyzed the relationship between species richness across multiple higher taxa observed at 526 sites in temperate forests and vegetation indices, measures of aboveground net primary productivity. We downloaded MODIS derived vegetation index time series for each location where the species richness had been sampled, and summarized the data into three measures: maximum time-series value, temporal mean, and temporal variability. On average, species richness covaried positively with our vegetation index measures. Different higher taxa show different positive relationships with vegetation indices. Models had high R (2) values, suggesting higher taxon identity and a gradient of vegetation index together explain most of the variation in species richness in our data. MODISTools can be used on Windows, Mac, and Linux platforms, and is available from CRAN and GitHub (https://github.com/seantuck12/MODISTools).

The collapsing populations of large herbivores will have extensive ecological and social consequences., Large wild herbivores are crucial to ecosystems and human societies. We highlight the 74 largest terrestrial herbivore species on Earth (body mass ≥100 kg), the threats they face, their important and often overlooked ecosystem effects, and the conservation efforts needed to save them and their predators from extinction. Large herbivores are generally facing dramatic population declines and range contractions, such that ~60% are threatened with extinction. Nearly all threatened species are in developing countries, where major threats include hunting, land-use change, and resource depression by livestock. Loss of large herbivores can have cascading effects on other species including large carnivores, scavengers, mesoherbivores, small mammals, and ecological processes involving vegetation, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and fire regimes. The rate of large herbivore decline suggests that ever-larger swaths of the world will soon lack many of the vital ecological services these animals provide, resulting in enormous ecological and social costs.

Habitat loss and degradation, driven largely by agricultural expansion and intensification, present the greatest immediate threat to biodiversity. Tropical forests harbour among the highest levels of terrestrial species diversity and are likely to experience rapid land-use change in the coming decades. Synthetic analyses of observed responses of species are useful for quantifying how land use affects biodiversity and for predicting outcomes under land-use scenarios. Previous applications of this approach have typically focused on individual taxonomic groups, analysing the average response of the whole community to changes in land use. Here, we incorporate quantitative remotely sensed data about habitats in, to our knowledge, the first worldwide synthetic analysis of how individual species in four major taxonomic groups—invertebrates, ‘herptiles’ (reptiles and amphibians), mammals and birds—respond to multiple human pressures in tropical and sub-tropical forests. We show significant independent impacts of land use, human vegetation offtake, forest cover and human population density on both occurrence and abundance of species, highlighting the value of analysing multiple explanatory variables simultaneously. Responses differ among the four groups considered, and—within birds and mammals—between habitat specialists and habitat generalists and between narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species.

Summary Biodiversity is changing at unprecedented rates, and it is increasingly important that these changes are quantified through monitoring programmes. Previous recommendations for developing or enhancing these programmes focus either on the end goals, that is the intended use of the data, or on how these goals are achieved, for example through volunteer involvement in citizen science, but not both. These recommendations are rarely prioritized.We used a collaborative approach, involving 52 experts in biodiversity monitoring in the UK, to develop a list of attributes of relevance to any biodiversity monitoring programme and to order these attributes by their priority. We also ranked the attributes according to their importance in monitoring biodiversity in the UK. Experts involved included data users, funders, programme organizers and participants in data collection. They covered expertise in a wide range of taxa.We developed a final list of 25 attributes of biodiversity monitoring schemes, ordered from the most elemental (those essential for monitoring schemes; e.g. articulate the objectives and gain sufficient participants) to the most aspirational (e.g. electronic data capture in the field, reporting change annually). This ordered list is a practical framework which can be used to support the development of monitoring programmes.People's ranking of attributes revealed a difference between those who considered attributes with benefits to end users to be most important (e.g. people from governmental organizations) and those who considered attributes with greatest benefit to participants to be most important (e.g. people involved with volunteer biological recording schemes). This reveals a distinction between focussing on aims and the pragmatism in achieving those aims. Synthesis and applications. The ordered list of attributes developed in this study will assist in prioritizing resources to develop biodiversity monitoring programmes (including citizen science). The potential conflict between end users of data and participants in data collection that we discovered should be addressed by involving the diversity of stakeholders at all stages of programme development. This will maximize the chance of successfully achieving the goals of biodiversity monitoring programmes., The ordered list of attributes developed in this study will assist in prioritizing resources to develop biodiversity monitoring programmes (including citizen science). The potential conflict between end users of data and participants in data collection that we discovered should be addressed by involving the diversity of stakeholders at all stages of programme development. This will maximize the chance of successfully achieving the goals of biodiversity monitoring programmes.

This paper presents the first mathematical model that attempts to represent the biology and behavior of all individual organisms globally, taking us a step closer to holistic ecological and conservation science founded on mechanistic predictions., Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures., Author Summary Ecosystems across the world are being rapidly degraded. This threatens their provision of natural goods and services, upon which all life depends. To be able to reduce—and one day reverse—this damage, we need to be able to predict the effects of human actions on ecosystems. Here, we present the first example of a General Ecosystem Model (GEM)—called the Madingley Model—a novel class of computational model that can be applied to any ecosystem, marine or terrestrial, and can be simulated at any spatial scale from local up to global. It covers almost all organisms in ecosystems, from the smallest to the largest, encoding the underlying biology and behaviour of individual organisms to capture the interactions between them and with the environment, to model the fate of each individual organism, and to make predictions about ecosystem structure and function. Predictions made by the Madingley Model broadly resemble what we observe in real-world ecosystems across scales from individuals through to communities, ecosystems, and the world as a whole. Our results show that ecologists can now begin modelling all nonhuman life on earth, and we suggest that this type of approach may hold promise for predicting the ecological implications of different future trajectories of human activity on our shared planet.

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.

Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are projected to occur within the next several decades, to be difficult to reverse, and to have regional- to global-scale impacts on human society. We provide an overview of ecosystem, socioeconomic, and biophysical mechanisms mediating regime shifts and illustrate how these interact at regional scales by aggregation, synergy, and spreading processes. We give detailed examples of interactions for terrestrial ecosystems of central South America and for marine and coastal ecosystems of Southeast Asia. This analysis suggests that degradation of biodiversity and, ecosystem services over the twenty-first century could be far greater than was previously predicted. We identify key policy and management opportunities at regional to global scales to avoid these shifts.

BACKGROUND: Remotely-sensed environmental data from earth-orbiting satellites are increasingly used to model the distribution and abundance of both plant and animal species, especially those of economic or conservation importance. Time series of data from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on-board NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites offer the potential to capture environmental thermal and vegetation seasonality, through temporal Fourier analysis, more accurately than was previously possible using the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor data. MODIS data are composited over 8- or 16-day time intervals that pose unique problems for temporal Fourier analysis. Applying standard techniques to MODIS data can introduce errors of up to 30% in the estimation of the amplitudes and phases of the Fourier harmonics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We present a novel spline-based algorithm that overcomes the processing problems of composited MODIS data. The algorithm is tested on artificial data generated using randomly selected values of both amplitudes and phases, and provides an accurate estimate of the input variables under all conditions. The algorithm was then applied to produce layers that capture the seasonality in MODIS data for the period from 2001 to 2005. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Global temporal Fourier processed images of 1 km MODIS data for Middle Infrared Reflectance, day- and night-time Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) are presented for ecological and epidemiological applications. The finer spatial and temporal resolution, combined with the greater geolocational and spectral accuracy of the MODIS instruments, compared with previous multi-temporal data sets, mean that these data may be used with greater confidence in species' distribution modelling.

The pangolin, now recognised as the world’s most trafficked mammal, is currently undergoing population collapse across South and Southeast Asia, primarily because of the medicinal value attributed to its meat and scales. This paper explores how scarcity and alterity (otherness) drive the perceived value of these creatures for a range of human and more-than-human stakeholders: wildlife traffickers, Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) practitioners, Asian consumers of their meat and scales, hunters and poachers, pangolin-rearing master-spirits, and conservation organisations. Based on archival research and long-term ethnographic study with indigenous hunters in the Eastern Himalayas, the paper analyses the commodity chains linking hunters and consumers of pangolin across South, Southeast and East Asia. It shows that whilst the nonlinear interaction of scarcity, alterity and value is driving the current overexploitation of pangolins, for some indigenous hunters in the Eastern Himalayas, these same dynamics interact to preserve these animals in the forests where they dwell.

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015. The collation of biodiversity datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents is necessary to understand historical declines and to project - and hopefully avert - future declines. We describe a newly collated database of more than 1.6 million biodiversity measurements from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.