104 results on '"Poverty map"'
Search Results
2. Using poverty maps to improve the design of household surveys: the evidence from Tunisia.
- Author
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Betti, Gianni, Molini, Vasco, and Pavelesku, Dan
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MAP design ,HOUSEHOLD surveys ,STATISTICAL sampling ,CONSUMPTION (Economics) ,POVERTY ,PER capita - Abstract
In this paper we aim to propose a new method for improving the design effect of household surveys based on a two-stage design in which the first stage clusters, or Primary Selection Units (PSUs), are stratified along administrative boundaries. Improvement of the design effect can result in more precise survey estimates (smaller standard errors and confidence intervals) or in the reduction of the necessary sample size, i.e. a reduction in the budget needed for a survey. The proposed method is based on the availability of a previously conducted poverty maps, i.e. spatial descriptions of the distribution of per capita consumption expenditures, that are finely disaggregated in small geographic units, such as cities, municipalities, districts or other administrative partitions of a country that are directly linked to PSUs. Such information is then used to select PSUs with systematic sampling by introducing further implicit stratification in the survey design, so as to maximise the improvement of the design effect. Since per capita consumption expenditures estimated at PSU level from the poverty mapping are affected by (small) standard errors, in the paper we also perform a simulation study in order to take into account this addition variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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3. Estimation of poverty and inequality in small areas: review and discussion.
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Molina, Isabel, Corral, Paul, and Nguyen, Minh
- Abstract
Never better said, a correct diagnosis is crucial for patient recovery. In the eradication of poverty, which is the first of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) established by the United Nations, efforts in the form of social aid and programs will be useless if they are not directed where they are most needed. Nowadays, monitoring the progress on the SDGs is even more urgent after the sanitary crisis, which is reversing the global poverty reduction observed since 1990 and, given that social development funds are always limited, managing them correctly requires disaggregated statistical information on poverty of acceptable quality. But reliable estimates on living conditions are scarce due to sample size limitations of most official surveys. Common small area estimation procedures supplement the survey data with auxiliary data sources to produce more reliable disaggregated estimates than those based solely on the survey data. We describe the traditional as well as recent model-based procedures for obtaining reliable disaggregated estimates of poverty and inequality indicators, discussing their properties from a practical point of view, placing emphasis on real applications and describing software implementations. We discuss results from recent simulation experiments that compare some of the unit-level methods in terms of bias and efficiency, under model- and design-based setups. Finally, we provide some concluding remarks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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4. Pull your small area estimates up by the bootstraps.
- Author
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Rodas, Paul Corral, Molina, Isabel, and Nguyen, Minh
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SMALL area statistics , *FIX-point estimation , *HETEROSCEDASTICITY - Abstract
This paper presents a methodological update to the World Bank's toolkit for small area estimation. The paper reviews the computational procedures of the current methods used by the institution: the traditional ELL approach and the Empirical Best (EB) addition introduced to imitate the original EB procedure of Molina and Rao [Small area estimation of poverty indicators. Canadian J Stat. 2010;38(3):369–385], including heteroskedasticity and survey weights, but using a different bootstrap approach, here referred to as clustered bootstrap. Simulation experiments provide empirical evidence of the shortcomings of the clustered bootstrap approach, which yields biased and noisier point estimates. The document presents an update to the World Bank's EB implementation by considering the original EB procedures for point and noise estimation, extended for complex designs and heteroscedasticity. Simulation experiments illustrate that the revised methods yield considerably less biased and more efficient estimators than those obtained from the clustered bootstrap approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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5. A Map of the Poor or a Poor Map?
- Author
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Paul Corral, Kristen Himelein, Kevin McGee, and Isabel Molina
- Subjects
small area estimation ,ELL ,poverty mapping ,poverty map ,empirical best ,parametric bootstrap ,Mathematics ,QA1-939 - Abstract
This paper evaluates the performance of different small area estimation methods using model and design-based simulation experiments. Design-based simulation experiments are carried out using the Mexican Intra Censal survey as a census of roughly 3.9 million households from which 500 samples are drawn using a two-stage selection procedure similar to that of Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) surveys. The estimation methods considered are that of Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (2003), the empirical best predictor of Molina and Rao (2010), the twofold nested error extension presented by Marhuenda et al. (2017), and finally an adaptation, presented by Nguyen (2012), that combines unit and area level information, and which has been proposed as an alternative when the available census data is outdated. The findings show the importance of selecting a proper model and data transformation so that model assumptions hold. A proper data transformation can lead to a considerable improvement in mean squared error (MSE). Results from design-based validation show that all small area estimation methods represent an improvement, in terms of MSE, over direct estimates. However, methods that model unit level welfare using only area level information suffer from considerable bias. Because the magnitude and direction of the bias is unknown ex ante, methods relying only on aggregated covariates should be used with caution, but may be an alternative to traditional area level models when these are not applicable.
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- 2021
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6. POVERTY MAP IN ROMANIA
- Author
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TOMESCU-DUMITRESCU CORNELIA
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poverty map ,income ,social assistance ,guaranteed minimum income ,degree of poverty ,Commercial geography. Economic geography ,HF1021-1027 ,Economics as a science ,HB71-74 - Abstract
A quarter of a million Romanians receive the guaranteed minimum income, that is to say, the state's social support to those who do not have enough income to live in. More specifically, according to May (latest available) data from the Ministry of Labor, 248,987 Romanian citizens received social assistance. Compared to the total number of inhabitants in the records of the Ministry of Labor, it results that 1.17% of the entire population receives this guaranteed minimum income. In May, for which we have the most recent official data available, the average guaranteed minimum income paid to beneficiaries was 281 lei. The government paid 70 million lei for this aid in that month
- Published
- 2017
7. Where Are the Poor Located? A Spatial Heterogeneity Analysis of Monetary Poverty in Peru
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Juan Palomino and Thyara Sánchez
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education.field_of_study ,Sanitation ,Poverty ,Economic history and conditions ,Population ,Public policy ,Economic growth, development, planning ,HC10-1085 ,General Medicine ,Spatial heterogeneity ,Poverty map ,Economics as a science ,Geography ,Geographically Weighted Regression ,Spatial nonstationary ,Peru ,HD72-88 ,Measuring poverty ,education ,Socioeconomics ,Empirical evidence ,Monetary poverty ,HB71-74 ,Poverty mapping - Abstract
Measuring poverty is a first step to the design of effective public policies, however, it is also essential to know where the poor are located. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the spatial heterogeneity of the factors that influence monetary poverty for each district in Peru. We apply a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) approach, which allows us to capture the non-stationarity of the hidden data and to provide coefficients for each district, unlike the OLS model. This research mainly uses the Poverty Map and the Population and Household Census of Peru, both from 2007 and 2017. The overriding findings of our results indicate that female headship, secondary education, electricity, and sanitation services are directly associated with poverty reduction at the local level. For 2007, significant effects are mainly concentrated in the districts of Pasco, Lima and Cajamarca regions. For 2017, the results show a shift towards districts of Junín, Huancavelica, and Cajamarca regions. Likewise, it is highlighted that the highest mean negative effect on poverty is generated by Secondary Education in the GWR estimates; while malnutrition represents the highest mean positive effect on poverty for the level and intercensal models. Finally, the empirical evidence found in this research can help establish better policy designs at the district level.
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- 2021
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8. PENERAPAN METODE ELL-COUNTERFACTUAL UNTUK PEMETAAN KEMISKINAN LEVEL KECAMATAN DAN DESA/KELURAHAN
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Siti Muchlisoh and Dewi Widyawati
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Estimation ,Counterfactual thinking ,Poverty map ,Government ,Small area estimation ,Geography ,Poverty ,Statistics ,Social Welfare ,Sample (statistics) - Abstract
Program pembangunan yang dilaksanakan pemerintah selama ini memberikan perhatian besar terhadap upaya pengentasan kemiskinan dalam rangka meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat. Program penanggulangan kemiskinan memerlukan pendataan yang akurat dan menjangkau sampai wilayah terkecil. Informasi mengenai indikator kemiskinan diperoleh dari Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional (SUSENAS) yang diselenggarakan oleh BPS. SUSENAS didesain untuk mendapatkan indikator tersebut sampai level estimasi Kabupaten/Kota, sehingga untuk mendapatkan estimasi hingga level yang lebih kecil belum memenuhi syarat kecukupan sampel. Metode Small Area Estimation (SAE) dapat dimanfaatkan untuk mendapatkan penduga indikator kemiskinan dengan mengoptimalkan data yang tersedia atau tanpa disertai dengan penambahan jumlah sampel. Penelitian ini membahas penerapan metode Elbers, Lanjouw, dan Lanjouw (ELL) yang dikombinasikan dengan metode Counterfactual untuk mendapatkan estimasi indikator kemiskinan pada level Kecamatan maupun Desa/Kelurahan di Kota Yogyakarta serta memetakannya. Data yang digunakan yaitu Sensus Penduduk (SP2010), SUSENAS (2010 dan 2018), PODES (2011 dan 2018), serta publikasi BPS lainnya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pendugaan indikator kemiskinan dengan metode ELL memiliki nilai relative standar error (RSE) yang lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan hasil pendugaan langsung. Dengan mendapatkan indikator kemiskinan pada level agregasi yang lebih rendah diharapkan dapat menambah kredibilitas pengambilan keputusan pemerintah dalam rangka pengentasan kemiskinan yang tepat sasaran.
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- 2021
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9. New Algorithm to Estimate Inequality Measures in Cross-Survey Imputation : An Attempt to Correct the Underestimation of Extreme Values
- Author
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Betti, Gianni, Molini, Vasco, and Mori, Lorenzo
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MOROCCAN HBS ,POVERTY INDICATORS ,MOROCCAN LFS ,POVERTY TRENDS ,POVERTY ESTIMATION ,BIAS REDUCTION ,SURVEY-TO-SURVEY IMPUTATION ,POVERTY STATISTICS ,HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ,POVERTY AND INEQUALITY ,SSIT ,POVERTY MAP ,INEQUALITY INDICATORS - Abstract
This paper contributes to the debate on ways to improve the calculation of inequality measures in developing countries experiencing severe budget constraints. Linear regression-based survey-to-survey imputation techniques are most frequently discussed in the literature. These are effective at estimating predictions of poverty indicators but are much less accurate with inequality indicators. To demonstrate this limited accuracy, the first part of the paper discusses several simulations using Moroccan Household Budget Surveys and Labor Force Surveys. The paper proposes a method for overcoming these limitations based on an algorithm that minimizes the sum of the squared difference between a certain number of direct estimates of an index and its empirical version obtained from the predicted values. Indeed, when comparing the estimated results with those directly estimated from the original sample, the bias is negligible. Furthermore, the inequality indices for the years for which there are only model estimates, rather than direct information on expenditures, seem to be consistent with Moroccan economic trends.
- Published
- 2022
10. POVERTY MAP IN ROMANIA.
- Author
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CORNELIA, TOMESCU-DUMITRESCU
- Subjects
POVERTY ,INCOME maintenance programs - Abstract
A quarter of a million Romanians receive the guaranteed minimum income, that is to say, the state's social support to those who do not have enough income to live in. More specifically, according to May (latest available) data from the Ministry of Labor, 248,987 Romanian citizens received social assistance. Compared to the total number of inhabitants in the records of the Ministry of Labor, it results that 1.17% of the entire population receives this guaranteed minimum income. In May, for which we have the most recent official data available, the average guaranteed minimum income paid to beneficiaries was 281 lei. The government paid 70 million lei for this aid in that month. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
11. Socioeconomic conditions on poverty levels a case study: Central Java Province and Yogyakarta in 2016
- Author
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Achmad Tjachja Nugraha, Listio Nandhiko, Gunawan Prayitno, and Ahmad Riswan Nasution
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Descriptive statistics ,Sanitation ,Poverty ,nível de pobreza ,business.industry ,Agriculture (General) ,General Social Sciences ,Distribution (economics) ,Forestry ,análise de regressão espacial ,S1-972 ,Poverty map ,spatial model ,Geography ,Thematic map ,modelo espacial ,spatial regression analysis ,business ,Socioeconomics ,level of poverty ,Agronomy and Crop Science ,Spatial analysis ,Socioeconomic status - Abstract
This study aims to analyze how the influence of infrastructure availability, socioeconomic conditions, and the effect of location on poverty levels. The descriptive analysis is used to give a general description of poverty by using thematic charts and maps. The poverty map is analyzed by spatial autocorrelation of poverty levels by using a Moran Scatterplot and the Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) Map. The results of the study indicate the existence of spatial linkages to poverty. The Increasing of other variables outside the model in neighboring regions will increase the level of poverty in a region. The infrastructures of road extension, clean water infrastructure, economic growth, quality of education, and health have a significant influence on the level of poverty, while the percentage of satisfactory sanitation did not demonstrate to affect the significant effect on poverty. The conclusion is that the level of poverty in the provinces of Central Java and Yogyakarta has an irregular distribution and a clustered spatial pattern. Resumo: Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar como a disponibilidade de infraestrutura, as condições socioeconômicas e o efeito da localização influenciam nos níveis de pobreza. A análise descritiva é usada para dar uma descrição geral da pobreza usando cartas e mapas temáticos. O mapa da pobreza é analisado por autocorrelação espacial dos níveis de pobreza, pelo uso de um gráfico de dispersão de Moran e do Mapa de Indicadores Locais de Associação Espacial (LISA). Os resultados do estudo indicam a existência de ligações espaciais à pobreza. O aumento de outras variáveis fora do modelo em regiões vizinhas aumentará o nível de pobreza em uma região. A infraestrutura da extensão das estradas, infraestrutura de água potável, crescimento econômico, qualidade da educação e saúde têm influência significativa no nível de pobreza, embora a porcentagem de saneamento decente não tenha demonstrado afetar o efeito significativo sobre a pobreza. A conclusão é que o nível de pobreza nas províncias de Java Central e Yogyakarta tem uma distribuição desigual e um padrão espacial agrupado.
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- 2022
12. Estimating Poverty in Kinshasa by Dealing with Sampling and Comparability Issues
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Takaaki Masaki, Mervy Ever Viboudoulou Vilpoux, Shohei Nakamura, and Yele Maweki Batana
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Poverty map ,Geography ,Inequality ,Poverty ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Propensity score matching ,Comparability ,Econometrics ,Sampling (statistics) ,Sampling error ,Urban poverty ,media_common - Published
- 2021
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13. Estimating Poverty in Kinshasa by Dealing with Sampling and Comparability Issues
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Batana, Yele Maweki, Masaki, Takaaki, Nakamura, Shohei, and Viboudoulou Vilpoux, Mervy Ever
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COMPARABILITY ISSUES ,PROPENSITY SCORE ,POVERTY MEASUREMENT ,SAMPLING ERRORS ,COVID-19 ,ROBUSTNESS ANALYSIS ,CORONAVIRUS ,INEQUALITY ,URBAN POVERTY ,POVERTY MAP - Abstract
This paper proposes monetary poverty and inequality estimates for Kinshasa using a new Kinshasa household survey implemented in 2018. Given the obsolescence of the sampling frame, the survey was sampled using satellite imagery. However, the collection of data in the field was affected by sampling errors that are likely to compromise the representativeness of the sample. After addressing these sampling issues and dealing with some comparability issues with the 2012 survey, the paper shows that poverty and inequality increased significantly during 2012–18 in Kinshasa. Poverty has increased in the city by 12 percentage points, from 53 to 65 percent, partly due to the loss of purchasing power following the sharp depreciation in 2017. Other explanatory factors include demographic factors, human capital, and spatial factors. The deterioration in well-being also appears to have been exacerbated by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic through decline in labor and nonlabor income and disruptions in goods and services markets and public services.
- Published
- 2021
14. SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF POVERTY AND HAPPINESS PROFILES IN SPECIAL REGION OF YOGYAKARTA USING SMALL AREA ESTIMATION METHOD
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M. Rizky, Totok Wahyu Wibowo, Sudaryatno, and Shafiera Rosa El-Yasha
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lcsh:Applied optics. Photonics ,geography ,Index (economics) ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,Inequality ,Poverty ,lcsh:T ,media_common.quotation_subject ,05 social sciences ,lcsh:TA1501-1820 ,050109 social psychology ,Urban area ,lcsh:Technology ,Poverty map ,Small area estimation ,lcsh:TA1-2040 ,0502 economics and business ,Happiness ,Survey data collection ,0501 psychology and cognitive sciences ,050207 economics ,lcsh:Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) ,Socioeconomics ,media_common - Abstract
In March 2017, the Province of Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY Province) has poverty line of IDR 374,009, percentage of poor people (13.03%) and Gini index (0.432) above the national average (IDR 374,478; 10.64%; 0.393). The result of happiness index in 2017 shows the position of DIY Province (72.93%) is above average of national happiness index (70.69%). Scatterplot between happiness index and percentage of poor people in Indonesia in 2017 shows that DIY Province is on first quadrant. This marks the high level of happiness along with high percentage of poor people. Small area estimation method developed by Elbers et al (known as ELL method) is used to determine spatial characteristics of poverty and happiness profiles in DIY Province. This study used village census data (Podes) 2018; Susenas March 2017 and SPTK 2017 as survey data. There are twenty three household variables and another five variables that are significant to poverty and happiness models at urban and rural provincial level. Rural regency areas dominates high poverty profile (FGT0 0.0491 – 0.1076), low happiness profile (FTG0 0.0087 – 0.0124), and inequality of happiness profile (Gini index 0.0847 – 0.0923). Urban regency areas dominates low poverty profile (FTG0 0.0082 – 0.0491), high happiness profile (FTG0 0 – 0.0087), and perfect equality of both income (Gini index 0.3048 – 0.3604) and happiness profiles (Gini index 0.0624 – 0.0847). Yogyakarta City has happiest and wealthies profiles, whereas Gunung Kidul regency urban area has perfect equality of both income and happiness profiles.
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- 2019
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15. An Exploratory study on analysing Relative Poverty rate and constructing Poverty map at the Jeju Special Self-Governing Province using the National Health Insurance’s contribution fee
- Author
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Choi, In-Duck
- Subjects
Poverty map ,Economic growth ,Geography ,Poverty rate ,National health insurance ,Exploratory research - Published
- 2019
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16. Machine Learning Approach with Multiple Open-source Data for Mapping and Prediction of Poverty in Myanmar
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Tsuyoshi Isshiki, Suttipong Thajchayapong, Nyan Lin Htet, and Waree Kongprawechnon
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Boosting (machine learning) ,Poverty ,Computer science ,business.industry ,Deep learning ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,Random forest ,Poverty map ,Linear regression ,Gradient boosting ,Artificial intelligence ,Baseline (configuration management) ,business ,computer - Abstract
Poverty is rampant and very crucial issue in developing countries. Therefore, in this paper, we explore the implementation of machine learning on the estimation of poverty by training input data from widely available and accessible open-source, including nighttime lights (NTL) and OpenStreetMap (OSM) data. We propose this approach as a straightforward, cost-effective and alternative option for previous studies which have been done by deep learning. We applied the linear regression and ridge regression algorithm as our baseline models while using random forest regression, gradient boosting regression and xgboost regression to achieve the better performance. We found that our best model can explain approximately 74% of the variation in wealth index from input features of Myanmar. We then created the poverty map in province administrative level for Myanmar, which indicates that conventional machine learning models with open-source data can still be as efficient as deep learning on poverty estimation.
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- 2021
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17. Understanding maternal dietary behaviour and perceived attributes of foods in the context of food insecurity in rural Bangladesh: a qualitative study
- Author
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Ashraful Alam, Wajiha Khatun, Michael J. Dibley, and Sabrina Rasheed
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Poverty map ,Poverty ,Environmental health ,Food choice ,Psychological intervention ,Developing country ,Context (language use) ,General Medicine ,Psychology ,Focus group ,Qualitative research - Abstract
Background Evidence shows inadequate dietary diversity among women in resource poor settings in developing countries. We explored women’s perceived attributes related to food choices to understand their eating habits during pregnancy and lactation, in rural Bangladesh. Methods We conducted a qualitative study in two villages in Jamalpur District in northern Bangladesh. These villages experience high levels of poverty according to the 2010 Bangladesh Poverty Map. We undertook in-depth interviews (n=36) with pregnant and lactating women and conducted focus group discussions (n=2) with their husbands. We used the ProPAN (Process for the Promotion of Child Feeding - a tool to improve infant and young child feeding) methodology to develop a key food list to conduct the food attribute exercise. Data was audio-recorded, transcribed in Bangla, and translated into English. The transcripts were manually coded and analyzed using the inductive thematic approach. Results We found that: (i) animal-source foods and fruits were the least consumed in the women’s diet resulting in low dietary diversity; (ii) Consumption of diversified foods was influenced by access to food at home, while accessibility depended on affordability and availability in the local market or homestead gardens; and (iii) even though food was available and accessible at the household level, individual food choice and consumption were subject to personal preference, cultural norms and lack of knowledge about nutritious foods and subsequent health benefits during pregnancy and lactation. Conclusions The findings will assist in planning appropriate interventions to improve dietary diversity of pregnant and lactating women. Insights from this study will be useful for designing appropriate nutrition behaviour change communication in Bangladesh and other low-resource settings.
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- 2020
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18. Socio Economic Analysis of India with High Resolution Satellite Imagery to Predict Poverty
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Sanjay Kumar Dubey, Partha Sarathi Das, and Harsh Chhabra
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Sustainable development ,Poverty ,Computer science ,05 social sciences ,010501 environmental sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Poverty map ,Order (exchange) ,0502 economics and business ,Regional science ,Survey data collection ,Satellite imagery ,Rural area ,050203 business & management ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
Eradicating poverty is the numero uno objective of the United Nations for sustainable development of the world by 2030. But, in order to develop a feasible, targeted solution to this problem, an exact poverty map is required. In India, especially in rural areas, there is a dearth of reliable and frequent data related to indicators of poverty line as the national statistics division of the country releases data only once in five years. In this paper, we look at an alternative to the slow, ineffective collection of data on ground: mapping poverty from outer space using medium and high-resolution satellite imagery. Using both satellite imagery and survey data for the rural areas of India, we review how machine learning tools like convolutional neural networks have been harnessed to efficiently identify image features that help us effectively predict socio-economic indicators of poverty. We also explore how these methods offer promising means for policy makers to tackle poverty at the grassroot level and a potential for application across several domains of science.
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- 2020
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19. Estimation of Disaggregate-Level Poverty Incidence in Odisha Under Area-Level Hierarchical Bayes Small Area Model
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Priyanka Anjoy, Hukum Chandra, and Pradip Basak
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Estimation ,Sociology and Political Science ,Poverty ,05 social sciences ,General Social Sciences ,Survey sampling ,01 natural sciences ,Poverty map ,010104 statistics & probability ,Geography ,Small area estimation ,Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous) ,Sample size determination ,0502 economics and business ,Developmental and Educational Psychology ,Econometrics ,Survey data collection ,Consumer Expenditure Survey ,050207 economics ,0101 mathematics - Abstract
Sustainable development goal-1 of the United Nations is to end poverty in all its forms everywhere. The estimates of poverty related parameters obtained from large scale sample survey are often available at large domain level (e.g. state level). But, poverty rates are not uniformly distributed across the regions. The regional variations are masked in such large domain level estimates. However, for monitoring the progress of poverty alleviation programmes aimed at reduction of poverty often require micro or disaggregate level estimates. The traditional survey estimation approaches are not suitable for generating the reliable estimates at this level because of sample size problem. It is the main endeavor of Small Area Estimation (SAE) approach to produce micro level statistics with acceptable precision without incurring any extra cost and utilizing existing survey data. In this study, the Hierarchical Bayes approach of SAE has been applied to generate reliable and representative district level poverty incidence for the State of Odisha in India using the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey 2011–2012 data of National Sample Survey Office and linked with Population Census 2011. The results show the precise performance of model based estimates generated by SAE method to a greater extent than the direct survey estimates. A poverty map has also been produced to observe the spatial inequality in poverty distribution.
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- 2018
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20. Mapping natural resource-based poverty, with an application to rural Syria
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Szonyi, Judit, De Pauw, Eddy, Rovere, Roberto La, and Aw-Hassan, Aden
- Subjects
- *
POVERTY , *NATURAL resources , *AGRICULTURAL wages , *INCOME inequality , *ENDOWMENTS - Abstract
Abstract: This study presents advances in resource-based poverty mapping. It illustrates how agricultural income distribution maps can be generated at small pixel-level, providing an application of the approach in rural Syria. Census data on agriculture and population are disaggregated based on pixel-level agricultural productivity coefficients derived in a GIS environment. The approach, triangulated with survey results and compared with sub-national poverty maps, shows that the better-income areas of Syria are located in the irrigated and higher-rainfall areas, though lower-income pockets exist due to the presence of ecological and topographic factors or due to high population density. The method can be used for developing high-resolution, low cost maps for rapid detection of resource-driven poverty in low income countries where agriculture is a major source of rural income, and where poverty mapping is rarely undertaken due to the high costs involved. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2010
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21. Incidencia de COVID-19 en la pobreza, Región Huánuco, 2020
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José Antonio Beraún Barrantes, Milward Ubillús, Janet Trujillo-Alvarez, Irma Palacios Zevallos, and Jose Ubillús-Trujillo
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Poverty map ,education.field_of_study ,Geography ,Poverty ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Incidence (epidemiology) ,Significant positive correlation ,Population ,General Medicine ,Socioeconomics ,education - Abstract
Objetivo. Determinar la relación entre la incidencia de la COVID-19 y la pobreza en la Región Huánuco durante el 2020. Método. Fue un estudio descriptivo, ecológico de grupo múltiple, transversal y retrospectivo. La población estaba compuesta por las 11 provincias y 84 distritos geopolíticos del departamento de Huánuco. El tipo de muestreo fue no aleatorio, intencionado por conveniencia. Se usaron datos de fuentes primarias, como el Reporte de Casos Nuevos de COVID-19 de la Dirección Regional de Salud – Huánuco - DIRESA 2020. Resultados. Respecto al número de casos nuevos de COVID-19, las provincias de Huánuco, Leoncio Prado y Puerto Inca fueron las que presentaron el mayor número de casos, mientras que las provincias que presentaron el menor número de nuevos casos fueron Lauricocha, Yarowilca y Huacaybamba. Asimismo, las provincias de Puerto Inca, Leoncio Prado y Huánuco fueron las que presentaron las más altas tasas de incidencia. Al evaluar la pobreza en el departamento de Huánuco se tomó en cuenta la clasificación de los niveles de pobreza de cada distrito realizada al 2018 en el Mapa de Pobreza Monetaria Provincial y Distrital 2018 del INEI. La provincia de Leoncio Prado tiene los distritos más pobres, seguido de la provincia de Huánuco y Lauricocha. Las provincias que tienen los distritos menos pobres son Huacaybamba, Pachitea y Marañón. Conclusiones. Existe correlación positiva estadísticamente significativa de 0,646 para una p < 0,05 entre el nivel de pobreza y la incidencia de la Covid19 en Huánuco, durante el 2020
- Published
- 2021
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22. Spatially disaggregated estimates of poverty in Azerbaijan: Asset indices versus imputed welfare.
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Baschieri, Angela and Falkingham, Jane
- Subjects
POVERTY ,GRAPHIC methods ,PUBLIC welfare ,DEMOGRAPHIC surveys - Abstract
'Poverty maps', that is graphic representations of spatially disaggregated estimates of welfare, are being increasingly used to geographically target scare resources. This paper outlines the development of a set of poverty maps for Azerbaijan which can be used by different users. The paper contrasts two alternative approaches to the measurement and mapping of welfare. First a map is derived using imputed household consumption. This involves combining information from the 2002 Household Budget Survey with 1999 Azerbaijan Census data using techniques developed by a team within the World Bank that are now becoming standard practice. Secondly an alternative map is constructed using an asset index based on data from the 1999 Census to produce estimates of welfare at the district level. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the welfare rankings obtained at the regional level under the two alternative approaches and to assess the different results that the two techniques provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2009
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23. Social protection in the face of climate change: targeting principles and financing mechanisms
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Sarah A. Janzen and Michael R. Carter
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Climate change and poverty ,Poverty ,Public economics ,Economic policy ,050204 development studies ,Climate risk ,05 social sciences ,Consumption smoothing ,Development ,Chronic poverty ,Poverty trap ,Poverty map ,Social protection ,0502 economics and business ,Economics ,050207 economics ,General Environmental Science - Abstract
Climate risk is an important driver of long-term poverty dynamics, especially in rural regions. This paper builds a dynamic, multi-generation household model of consumption, accumulation, and risk management to draw out the full consequences of exposure to climate risk. The model incorporates the long-term impacts of consumption shortfalls, induced by the optimal “asset smoothing” coping behavior of the vulnerable, on the human capital and long-term wellbeing of families. The analysis shows that the long-term level and depth of poverty can be improved by incorporating elements of “vulnerability-targeted social protection” into a conventional system of social protection. The paper also explores the degree to which vulnerability-targeted social protection can be implemented through a subsidized insurance mechanism. The analysis shows that insurance-based vulnerability-targeted social protection dominates (in economic growth and poverty reduction measures) both in-kind transfer mechanisms and vulnerability-targeted protection paid for using a public budget. The relative gains brought about by this scheme of insurance-augmented social protection increase—at least for a while—under climate change scenarios. However, if climate change becomes too severe, then even this novel form of social protection loses its ability to stabilize the extent and depth of poverty.
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- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
24. Classification trees for poverty mapping
- Author
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Siva Ganesh, Geoff Jones, Stephen Haslett, and Penny Bilton
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Statistics and Probability ,Poverty ,Computer science ,Applied Mathematics ,05 social sciences ,Posterior probability ,01 natural sciences ,Poverty map ,010104 statistics & probability ,Computational Mathematics ,Tree (data structure) ,Variable (computer science) ,Small area estimation ,Standard error ,Computational Theory and Mathematics ,Resampling ,0502 economics and business ,Statistics ,Econometrics ,0101 mathematics ,050205 econometrics - Abstract
Poverty mapping uses small area estimation techniques to estimate levels of deprivation (poverty, undernutrition) across small geographic domains within a country. These estimates are then displayed on a poverty map, and used by aid organizations such as the United Nations World Food Programme for the efficient allocation of aid. Current methodology employs unit-level regression modelling of a target variable (household income, child weight-for-age). An alternative modelling technique is proposed, using tree-based methods, that has some practical advantages. Alternative ways of amalgamating the unit-level predictions from classification trees to small area level are explored, adapting the trees to account for the survey design, and resampling strategies are proposed for producing standard errors. The methodology is evaluated using both real data and simulations based on a poverty mapping study in Nepal. The simulations suggest that amalgamation of posterior probabilities from the tree gives approximately unbiased estimates, and standard errors can be calculated using a cluster bootstrap approach with cluster effects included in the predictions. Small area estimates of poverty incidence for a region in Nepal, generated using the proposed tree based method, are comparable to the published results obtained by the standard method.
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
25. A Local Development Index for the CAR and Mali
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Johannes G. Hoogeveen, Gervais Chamberlin Yama, Roy S. Katayama, and Mohamed Coulibaly
- Subjects
Poverty map ,Economic growth ,Index (economics) ,Geography ,State (polity) ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Local Development ,Peacebuilding ,Census ,media_common - Abstract
To inform the Recovery and Peacebuilding Assessment (RPBA) in the Central African Republic at a time when large parts of the country were still insecure, a district census was designed and fielded within a three-month period. The district census interviewed local officials in all 179 administrative centers of the country. The data were summarized in a composite indicator—the Local Development Index (LDI)—and were used to inform new development projects. The LDI offers a spatial assessment of the state of the nation (much like a poverty map) and has become an important tool for development planning and progress monitoring.
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
26. Poverty Map of the Palestinian Territories : Palestinian Expenditure and Consumption Survey 2016 and Census 2017
- Author
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Atamanov, Aziz and Palaniswamy, Nethra
- Subjects
POVERTY MEASUREMENT ,HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ,POVERTY AND EQUITY ,INEQUALITY ,POVERTY LINE ,POVERTY MAP - Abstract
This technical report describes the methodology and data used to produce small area poverty estimates for the Palestinian territories. The first section presents the methodology. The second section describes the data, and the technical challenges in estimating poverty at the locality level. The third section discusses selection of the best model, its performance and conducts validation exercises. The fourth section shows poverty and inequality estimates for different levels.
- Published
- 2019
27. Poverty Map of the Palestinian Territories
- Author
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Nethra Palaniswamy and Aziz Atamanov
- Subjects
Poverty map ,Household survey ,Geography ,Inequality ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Poverty measurement ,Development economics ,media_common - Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
28. Where They Live : District-Level Measures of Poverty, Average Consumption, and the Middle Class in Central Asia
- Author
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Seitz, William
- Subjects
SMALL AREA ESTIMATION ,FAY-HERRIOT ,REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT ,POVERTY MAP ,POVERTY - Abstract
Rapid economic growth over the past two decades lifted millions of people out of poverty in Central Asia. But the uneven spread of prosperity left many communities struggling to catch up. To support lagging regions within countries, each of the region's five national governments has made convergence a pillar of their development strategies. An imperfect patchwork of household surveys allows policy makers to monitor progress and identify some spatial disparities. But these share an important weakness: none of the official surveys in the region is representative when disaggregated to the level of districts. Islands of poverty and prosperity are thus lost in the averages -- leading to targeting inaccuracies that can slow the pace of poverty reduction. This study partially addresses the challenge. The accuracy of key welfare indicators is sharpened well beyond what could be achieved for any country alone by: i) unifying survey data from across the region and ii) applying the techniques of small-area estimation. The results provide detailed measures of welfare that in turn can be disaggregated for each district in Central Asia. Comprehensive maps of where the poor and the middle class live are presented, for the entire region and individually for each country.
- Published
- 2019
29. Where They Live: District-Level Measures of Poverty, Average Consumption, and the Middle Class in Central Asia
- Author
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William Hutchins Seitz
- Subjects
Poverty map ,Extreme poverty ,Middle class ,Geography ,Poverty ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Development economics ,Survey data collection ,Prosperity ,Welfare ,Poverty threshold ,media_common - Abstract
Rapid economic growth over the past two decades lifted millions of people out of poverty in Central Asia. But the uneven spread of prosperity left many communities struggling to catch up. To support lagging regions within countries, each of the region's five national governments has made convergence a pillar of their development strategies. An imperfect patchwork of household surveys allows policy makers to monitor progress and identify some spatial disparities. But these share an important weakness: none of the official surveys in the region is representative when disaggregated to the level of districts. Islands of poverty and prosperity are thus lost in the averages -- leading to targeting inaccuracies that can slow the pace of poverty reduction. This study partially addresses the challenge. The accuracy of key welfare indicators is sharpened well beyond what could be achieved for any country alone by: i) unifying survey data from across the region and ii) applying the techniques of small-area estimation. The results provide detailed measures of welfare that in turn can be disaggregated for each district in Central Asia. Comprehensive maps of where the poor and the middle class live are presented, for the entire region and individually for each country.
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
30. Developing Gender-Disaggregated Poverty Small Area Estimates : Technical Report
- Author
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World Bank
- Subjects
SMALL AREA ESTIMATION ,DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEY ,GENDER ,POVERTY RATE ,POVERTY LINE ,POVERTY MAP - Abstract
Small area estimates of poverty and inequality statistics, through survey-to-census imputation that lets consumption be estimated for each and every household in a census, are useful for at least three reasons. First, they can help improve the effectiveness of public spending, by targeting to prevent the leakage of benefits to the non-poor (and prevent the under-coverage of the poor). If poor people are concentrated in certain areas, spatial targeting by directing extra development projects and public services to those areas, may be more feasible than trying to individually target the poor. Geographic targeting is highly relevant in countries like Timor Leste, where mountainous topography contributes to high levels of heterogeneity. In similar environments, such as Papua New Guinea, the enclave nature of some modern economic development has created high levels of spatial inequality. The basic details are that household survey data are used to estimate a model of consumption, with explanatory variables restricted to those that have overlapping distributions from a census. The coefficients from this model are then combined with the variables from the census, and consumption is predicted for each household in the census. With these predictions available for all households, inequality and poverty statistics can be estimated for small geographic areas (Elbers et al, 2003).2 In the results below, the poverty statistics that are calculated by using the predicted consumption data for each census household are reported at the suco level (n=442). For the headcount poverty rate, the standard errors at the suco level (relative to the poverty index) average one-quarter and so this is a comparable degree of precision to what the survey offered at the municipality level (n=13) for a variable like the poverty severity index.
- Published
- 2019
31. Gender-Sensitive Poverty Mapping for Timor-Leste : Policy Note
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World Bank
- Subjects
SMALL AREA ESTIMATION ,AGENCY ,EDUCATION ,GENDER ,HEALTH ,POVERTY RATE ,POVERTY MAP ,LABOR FORCE - Abstract
Timor-Leste has made impressive progress over the past decade in reducing national poverty levels. Geographically, however, this progress has been highly uneven across the country. In addition, concerns exist regarding gender gaps based on broader socioeconomic dimensions, such as access to economic activities, education, health, and power and agency. In response, the Government of Timor-Leste has set a goal of eradicating extreme poverty by introducing more socially inclusive and gender sensitive policies and programs. However, the existing sex-disaggregated statistics and consumption based poverty estimates resulting from the 2014 Survey of Living Standards only provide district-level disaggregation. This limits the government’s ability to identify and target pockets of extreme poverty and gender disparity across the country below the district level. To address this gap, the World Bank, in close collaboration with the General Directorate of Statistics Timor-Leste, has generated a new set of sex-disaggregated poverty statistics at the village (suco) level. This work takes a more thoughtful approach to gender-sensitive poverty analyses, beyond the usual household headship, by employing individual-level characteristics of education, health, employment, and power and agency. The analyses employ a small-area estimation (SAE) approach to link the data in the 2015 Population and Housing Census with the 2014 Survey of Living Standards and the 2016 Demographic and Health Survey. The suco-level poverty maps confirm an already known pattern that poverty headcount rates are much higher in western areas of the country. The maps also reveal new findings that were not previously known, namely that there is far more variation in poverty rates within than between districts. For example, while the Dili district-level poverty rate is 29 percent, its suco-level rates range from 8 to 80 percent. Analyzing poverty and gender equality by the gender of the household head, female-headed households are less likely to be poor than those headed by males. However, if poverty and genderequality are assessed using spatially disaggregated evidence of five individual-level gender indicators (education, health, labor force, and power and agency), two interesting patterns emerge. First, poorer areas have higher levels of abuse and domestic violence against women, and females are at a greater educational disadvantage, despite narrowing gaps in the literacy rate among school-aged children and school enrollment. Second, there is an inverse relationship between gender-related labor force gaps and poverty rates: the prevalence of a female labor force disadvantage is higher in more economically developed sucos. However, women do not appear to be disadvantaged in terms of health measures and this pattern has no correlation with poverty. Poverty does not appear to be related to women’s autonomy to make decisions. The overall findings suggest the importance of using sex-disaggregated individual level analysis, beyond the male/female household headship, to better assess poverty of women and men and gender disparity. This analysis goes beyond traditional consumption-based poverty analysis by integrating a gender dimension to better capture the standard-of-living and gender disparities in the country. These findings can be used to inform the design of policies and programs that target poverty at the suco level, and to improve resource allocation designed to raise the living standards of the poor, balance the targeting of poor areas and poor people, and close gender gaps in the five dimensions studied here. The poverty maps could also provide a cost-effective way to add value to existing census and survey data, and also serve as a substitute for fielding expensive new censuses or surveys.
- Published
- 2019
32. A Map of the Poor or a Poor Map?
- Author
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Corral, Paul, Himelein, Kristen, McGee, Kevin, and Molina, Isabel
- Subjects
- *
STANDARD of living , *PHYSIOLOGICAL adaptation , *UNITS of measurement , *CENSUS - Abstract
This paper evaluates the performance of different small area estimation methods using model and design-based simulation experiments. Design-based simulation experiments are carried out using the Mexican Intra Censal survey as a census of roughly 3.9 million households from which 500 samples are drawn using a two-stage selection procedure similar to that of Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) surveys. The estimation methods considered are that of Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (2003), the empirical best predictor of Molina and Rao (2010), the twofold nested error extension presented by Marhuenda et al. (2017), and finally an adaptation, presented by Nguyen (2012), that combines unit and area level information, and which has been proposed as an alternative when the available census data is outdated. The findings show the importance of selecting a proper model and data transformation so that model assumptions hold. A proper data transformation can lead to a considerable improvement in mean squared error (MSE). Results from design-based validation show that all small area estimation methods represent an improvement, in terms of MSE, over direct estimates. However, methods that model unit level welfare using only area level information suffer from considerable bias. Because the magnitude and direction of the bias is unknown ex ante, methods relying only on aggregated covariates should be used with caution, but may be an alternative to traditional area level models when these are not applicable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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33. Determinants of Fertility Trend at District, Divisional and Regional Levels and Policy Implication for Poverty Alleviation
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Mosammod Mahamuda Parvin, Nazneen Islam Nishat, Anika Nawar Fagun, and Md. Mizanur Rahman Sarker
- Subjects
Poverty map ,Geography ,Poverty ,Total fertility rate ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Wage ,Developing country ,Demographic economics ,Fertility ,Educational attainment ,Agricultural extension ,media_common - Abstract
Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries of the world (1278 persons per sq. km.) but it represents one of the few countries in developing world where the pace of fertility decline has been unparalleled over the last few decades despite pervasive poverty and under-development. It has been passing through a critical phase of fertility transition. The data was collected for this research from the following five sources: i. Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2012-13 for fertility rate, contraceptive use, proportion of children engaged in work and access to mass media and ICT of women. ii. Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh for literacy rate, iii. Population Census 2011 for population density characteristics of different districts, iv. Directorate of Agricultural Extension personnel for daily average wage rate of agricultural labor and v. Bangladesh Poverty Map, 2014 for the level of poverty of different districts. This study contributes to basic knowledge of the structural determinants of fertility rate in the Bangladesh by analyzing the expanded set of determinants at district level, namely contraceptive use, literacy rate, daily wage rate of agricultural labor, population density, child labor, access to mass media and ICT of women and poverty level using spatial data analysis techniques. In this study, the binary join matrix/binary contiguity matrix and inverse distance spatial weight matrix techniques are used to capture spatial dependence in the data. This analysis extends the spatial model by allowing spatial dependence to vary across divisions and regions. The results strongly indicate that the fertility associated with contraceptive use, literacy rate, daily wage rate of agricultural labor, child labor, poverty level and their neighbors’ districts. These results suggest that district should pay particular attention to policies in neighboring districts and policy maker should realize that declining the fertility rate in neighboring districts are likely to affect fertility rate in their own district, therefore, a key issue for policy development is how to stimulate the contraceptive use, educational attainment, promote daily wage of agricultural labor and decrease child labor and poverty level could control the fertility and result in sustainable development and poverty alleviation of regions that are both high fertility and economically lagging. This needs to be addressed both in terms of national level policies and more emphatically within regional and sub-regional development strategies than it has been hither.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
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34. The Local Impact of Mining on Poverty and Inequality: Evidence from the Commodity Boom in Peru
- Author
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Jamele Rigolini and Norman V. Loayza
- Subjects
Consumption (economics) ,Economics and Econometrics ,Sociology and Political Science ,Poverty ,Inequality ,050204 development studies ,media_common.quotation_subject ,05 social sciences ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Commodity ,Development ,Natural resource ,Decentralization ,Poverty map ,0502 economics and business ,Development economics ,Per capita ,Economics ,050207 economics ,media_common - Abstract
Summary This paper studies the impact of mining activity on socioeconomic outcomes in local communities in Peru. In the 1990s and 2000s, the value of Peruvian mining exports grew by 15 times; and since the early 2000s, one-half of fiscal revenues from mining have been devolved to local governments. Has this boom benefitted people in local communities? Using the district-level “poverty map” of 2007 (the latest available with accurate data on consumption, poverty, and inequality) together with district-level data on mining production and fiscal transfers to local governments, we present some evidence to answer this question. We find that mining districts have larger average consumption per capita and lower poverty rates than otherwise similar districts. These positive impacts, however, decrease drastically with administrative and geographic distance from mining centers. Moreover, consumption inequality within mining districts is higher than in comparable nonproducing districts. This dual effect of mining is accounted for by, first, the better educated immigrants required and attracted by mining activity and, second, the jobs that some community natives obtain in industries and services related to mining. The inequalizing impact of mining, both across and within districts, may help explain the social discontent with mining in Peru, despite its enormous revenues. An area for future research highlighted in the paper regards the usefulness of fiscal transfers to local governments (the Mining Canon ), a key component of the fiscal decentralization reform of 2002. We find neither a detrimental nor a beneficial effect from the Mining Canon in Peru. Whether this is explained by our early measurement of results (5 years into the decentralization program) or by the lack of implementation capacity of local governments remains to be answered.
- Published
- 2016
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- View/download PDF
35. Vietnam’s Evolving Poverty Index Map: Patterns and Implications for Policy
- Author
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Peter Lanjouw, Cuong Nguyen, Marleen Marra, Economics, and Tinbergen Institute
- Subjects
Cash transfers ,Economic growth ,Small area estimation ,Sociology and Political Science ,050204 development studies ,Population ,Targeting efficiency ,Developing countries ,Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous) ,Economic inequality ,0502 economics and business ,Development economics ,Developmental and Educational Psychology ,Economics ,Poverty gap index ,050207 economics ,education ,education.field_of_study ,Extreme poverty ,Poverty ,05 social sciences ,General Social Sciences ,SDG 10 - Reduced Inequalities ,Poverty map ,Inequality ,Rural poverty ,SDG 1 - No Poverty ,Poverty indexes - Abstract
This paper uses small area estimation techniques to update Vietnam's province and district-level poverty map to 2009. It finds that poverty rates continue to be highest in the northern and central mountainous regions, where ethnic minorities make up a large fraction of the population. Poverty has fallen in most provinces and districts over this decade, but the pace of poverty reduction has been least pronounced in those localities with high initial poverty or inequality levels. As a result, poverty rates have become more spatially concentrated over time, which is consistent with widely observed growth processes linked to agglomeration. The authors hypothesize that this makes geographic targeting of the poor more relevant as a means to re-balance growing welfare disparities between geographic areas. Simulations indicate that in both 1999 and 2009, geographic targeting for poverty alleviation improves upon a uniform lump-sum transfer and this becomes more evident the more spatially disaggregated the target populations. The analysis further indicates that the gains from geographic targeting have become more pronounced over time in Vietnam. Although poverty reduction in Vietnam has been impressive, further progress may thus warrant increased attention to geographic targeting.
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
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36. An Analysis of Effective Factors on Spatial Distribution of Poverty in Rural Regions of Hamedan Province
- Author
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Masood Mahdavi, Yousef-ali Ziyari, and Mohammad-Reza Peirovedin
- Subjects
Poverty map ,Economic growth ,Geography ,Poverty ,business.industry ,Ordinary least squares ,Distribution (economics) ,Spatial econometrics ,Rural area ,Spatial dependence ,business ,Socioeconomics ,Spatial analysis - Abstract
The aim of this paper is to examine the spatial distribution of poverty in order to show the effects of poverty rate of a region on the poverty of other rural regions of Hamadan province by making use of spatial econometric approach. The statistical population of the study included 383 rural households participating in the survey of household expenditure and income in 2012 is nine cities of Hamedan province. To analyze the data and to provide the poverty map, Spatial Econometrics and Matlab software and GIS were used as research tools. Initially, the poverty line and the estimated volume of poverty and deprivation were calculated and then, by measuring its volume, the distribution of poverty of the regions and its influence in the cities of the province were provided. Moran’s I-statistic was obtained for poverty equals 0.211 which is significant at the 1% level and shows spatial autocorrelation. Poverty is not distributed equally in rural regions of Hamadan province and the geographical location of households living in the rural areas is effective on poverty. The results of the research showed that in calculating the model by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) methods and spatial errors due to the spatial dependence in error terms, spatial error methods is better results than the OLS method. Variables such as average household size (+), gender of household head (-) and the proportion of households with housing (-) are statistically significant in identifying the poor people at less than 1% level and the type of jobs (+) at the 5% level respectively.
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
37. Mapping Poverty in Afghanistan : Technical Report
- Author
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World Bank Group
- Subjects
HOUSEHOLD WELFARE ,CENSUS DATA ,SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF POVERTY ,HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ,POVERTY RATE ,POVERTY MAP ,HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION - Abstract
Afghanistan has been in protracted conflict for almost four decades, with direct implications on progress towards development objectives. This context of recurring episodes of violence and insecurity, economic and political instability, and the consequent displacement of populations within and outside the nation’s borders has important implications on the landscape of data and evidence available for the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of interventions and programs, and their timeliness and relevance. Afghans represent the world’s largest and most protracted refugee population, with an estimated 3.5 million people currently living abroad as refugees for more than four decades. Given the large disparities in poverty incidence and high levels of inequality within Afghanistan, the knowledge of living standards at more disaggregated geographical levels of districts and nahias could help inform policy design and improve decision making at a sub-province level. Therefore, poverty mapping, which aims at estimating poverty incidence at levels lower than the household survey, was applied in Kabul and Herat provinces. This technical report describes the methodology and data used to produce the Kabul and Herat poverty maps and presents the resulting collection of poverty maps, the first of its kind for Afghanistan. The structure of the report is as follows. Section 2 outlines the poverty mapping methodology, specifically the small area estimation approach, applied in Afghanistan. Section 3 discusses the data sources and the various technical challenges faced with the datasets. Section 4 discusses the modeling phase, including model selection, model parameters, and assumptions. Section 5 presents the poverty maps at a district and nahia level, and section 6 concludes. The Annexes contains supporting data and analysis.
- Published
- 2018
38. Small Area Estimation of Poverty under Structural Change
- Author
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Utz Johann Pape, Simon Lange, and Peter Pütz
- Subjects
Consumption (economics) ,Estimation ,Poverty ,05 social sciences ,1. No poverty ,Estimator ,Poverty map ,Survey methodology ,Small area estimation ,0502 economics and business ,Econometrics ,Economics ,Survey data collection ,050207 economics ,050205 econometrics - Abstract
Small area poverty maps allow for the design of policies based on spatial differences in welfare. They are typically estimated based on a consumption survey reporting on poverty and a census providing the spatial disaggregation. This paper presents a new method which allows for the estimation of up-to-date small area poverty maps when only a dated census and a more recent survey are available and predictors and structural parameters are subject to drift over time, a situation commonly encountered in practice. Instead of using survey variables to explain consumption in the survey, the new approach uses variables constructed from the census. The proposed estimator has fewer data requirements and weaker assumptions than common small area poverty map estimators. Applications to simulated data and to poverty estimation in Brazil show an overall good performance.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. Efectos del gasto público en riego en los hogares de la sierra del Perú
- Author
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Álvaro Hopkins Barriga
- Subjects
gasto público ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Impact assessment ,Wage ,Sample (statistics) ,lcsh:HD72-88 ,lcsh:Economic growth, development, planning ,lcsh:Economic history and conditions ,Perú ,Peru ,Rural development ,infraestructura ,Socioeconomics ,Baseline (configuration management) ,Irrigation ,media_common ,Public spending ,Infrastructure ,Poverty ,business.industry ,lcsh:HB71-74 ,Monetary policy ,riego ,lcsh:Economics as a science ,evaluación de impacto ,General Medicine ,purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#5.02.01 [https] ,desarrollo rural ,Poverty map ,Geography ,Agriculture ,Local government ,lcsh:HC10-1085 ,business - Abstract
La presente investigación evalúa el impacto del gasto público en riego en los hogares de la Sierra del Perú que practican la agricultura de manera independiente y que cuentan con tierras de cultivo. Para dicho fin, se calculó el presupuesto ejecutado en riego por el gobierno nacional, regional y local entre los años 2008 y 2010, lo cual implicó el cruce de la base de datos del Sistema Integrado de Administración Financiera(SIAF) y el Banco de Proyectos del Sistema Nacional de Inversión Pública (SNIP) para una adecuada identificación de dicho gasto. Se aplicó la metodología de Diferencias en Diferencias con control en covariables. Para esto se construyó un pool de hogares a partir de la Encuesta Nacional de Hogares (Enaho) del Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INEI) tomando como línea de base los cortes de los años 2007 y 2008 y como seguimiento los años 2012 y 2013. La muestra se segmentó en dos grupos según la incidencia de la pobreza monetaria del distrito, de acuerdo al Mapa de Pobreza del año 2007: hogares en distritos pobres y hogares en distritos no pobres. Dicha segmentación permite aislar el efecto endógeno al tratamiento de utilizar la línea de pobreza calculada para cada hogar en la Enaho. Los impactos estimados muestran un efecto positivo en los hogares no pobres evaluados, a través de un incremento del ingreso no salarial agropecuario (producción independiente) y del ingreso salarial no agropecuario (actividades dependientes no agropecuarias). En los hogares pobres el efecto en el ingreso neto principal más secundario y en el ingreso neto agropecuario es estadísticamente igual a cero. This study assesses the impact that public spending on irrigation has on households in the Peruvian highlands that hold cultivable land and practice agriculture on an independent basis. To this end, we calculated the budget executed for irrigation by central, regional, and local government between 2008 and 2010, which entailed crosschecking the Integrated Financial Administration (System de Administración Financiera, SIAF) database and the National Public Investment Project Bank (Banco de Proyectos del Sistema Nacional de Inversión Pública, SNIP) to adequately identify this expenditure. We applied the differences-in-differences method with control covariates, for which we constructed a pool of households taken from the National Household Survey (Encuesta Nacional de Hogares, Enaho) conducted by the National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, INEI), using the cut-off years of 2007 and 2017 as the baseline and 2012 and 2013 for follow-up. We segmented the sample into two groups based on the incidence of monetary policy by district, per the 2007 Poverty Map: households in poor districts, and households in nonpoor districts. This segmentation allowed us to isolate the endogenous effect of the treatment of using the poverty line calculated for each household in the Enaho. The impacts estimated evince a positive effect on the non-poor households assessed, in the form of an increase in agricultural nonwage income (independent production) and in non-agricultural wage income (non-agricultural dependent activities). In the poor households, the effect on primary and secondary net income and on net agricultural income is statistically equal to zero.
- Published
- 2017
40. Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements into and out of poverty
- Author
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David McKenzie, Jill Luoto, Hai-Anh H. Dang, Peter Lanjouw, and Economics
- Subjects
Estimation ,Economics and Econometrics ,Extreme poverty ,Variables ,Poverty ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Development ,Chronic poverty ,Poverty map ,Microeconomics ,SDG 1 - No Poverty ,Economics ,Point estimation ,Panel data ,media_common - Abstract
Movements in and out of poverty are of core interest to both policymakers and economists. Yet the panel data needed to analyze such movements are rare. In this paper, the authors build on the methodology used to construct poverty maps to show how repeated cross-sections of household survey data can allow inferences to be made about movements in and out of poverty. They illustrate that the method permits the estimation of bounds on mobility, and provide non-parametric and parametric approaches to obtaining these bounds. They test how well the method works on data sets for Vietnam and Indonesia where we are able to compare our method to true panel estimates. The results are sufficiently encouraging to offer the prospect of some limited, basic, insights into mobility and poverty duration in settings where historically it was judged that the data necessary for such analysis were unavailable.
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
41. The Impact of a Community Development and Poverty Reduction Program on Early Childhood Development in Morocco
- Author
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El-Kogali, Safaa, Krafft, Caroline, Abdelkhalek, Touhami, Benkassmi, Mohamed, Chavez, Monica, Bassett, Lucy, and Ejjanoui, Fouzia
- Subjects
MEASURES ,INDICATORS ,TOTAL POVERTY RATE ,CHILDREN ,ECONOMIC GROWTH ,HOUSEHOLD INCOMES ,POVERTY MAP ,MEASUREMENT ,PROGRAMS ,PROJECTS ,AGRICULTURAL LAND ,IMPLEMENTATION ,POOR ,PROGRAM EFFECTS ,INCOME ,BENEFICIARIES ,OUTCOMES ,CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA ,WORKERS ,POVERTY RATES ,NUTRITIONAL STATUS ,CHRONIC MALNUTRITION ,MALNUTRITION ,STATISTICS ,HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ,POVERTY ,CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ,PER CAPITA INCOME ,HEALTH OUTCOMES ,SOCIAL SERVICES ,HEALTH ,INTERVENTION ,AGED ,QUANTITATIVE METHODS ,IMPACTS ,SERVICE DELIVERY ,CAPACITY-BUILDING ,RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE ,CHILD DEVELOPMENT ,SANITATION ,EVALUATION ,TRANSFERS ,RURAL AREAS ,PROGRAM IMPACTS ,PARENTING ,SELF-EMPLOYMENT ,OLS MODELS ,DECISION MAKING ,PARTICIPATION OF BENEFICIARIES ,DRINKING WATER ,SAMPLING ,RESEARCH PROGRAM ,CONSUMPTION ,POVERTY REDUCTION ,CONTROL GROUPS ,SHEEP ,INCOME GENERATION ,LIVING CONDITIONS ,INEQUALITY ,SURVEYS ,PREGNANT WOMEN ,CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES ,COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT ,TARGETING ,RESEARCH ,IMPACT ON POVERTY ,IMPACT EVALUATION ,EMPLOYMENT STATUS ,POVERTY MAPPING ,IRRIGATION ,TOTAL POVERTY ,INCOME DISTRIBUTION ,HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ,PROJECT IMPACTS ,PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION ,POVERTY REDUCTION PROGRAM ,REGIONS ,HEALTH INDICATORS ,POOR AREAS ,PREGNANCY ,HEALTH CARE ,HUMAN CAPITAL ,SAMPLE SIZE ,NUTRITION ,RURAL COMMUNITIES ,FARM PRODUCTS ,PARTICIPATION ,HOUSEHOLD INCOME ,PROGRAM DESIGNS ,RURAL ROADS ,LEARNING ,PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION ,HOUSEHOLD SIZE ,PEOPLE ,COUNTERFACTUAL ,STRATEGY ,POLITICS ,INCOME-GENERATING ACTIVITIES ,POOR HOUSEHOLDS ,HEALTH EXPENDITURES ,HOUSING ,POVERTY ALLEVIATION ,AGRICULTURAL SELF-EMPLOYMENT ,RURAL ,SOCIAL CAPITAL ,HEALTH SERVICES ,OBSERVATION ,BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE ,WEIGHT ,HEALTH TARGETS ,POVERTY RATE - Abstract
Participatory community development programs are designed to match government investments with local needs. In Morocco, where issues of inequality and poverty are high on the national agenda, a community development program, the National Initiative for Human Development, targeted high-poverty areas for additional investments. This paper examines whether, in addition to reducing poverty, such programs can also promote human development, specifically early childhood development. Early childhood development forms a critical foundation for later human development and plays a key role in the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status. Using panel data on communities just above and below the cutoff for National Initiative for Human Development inclusion in rural areas, regression discontinuity and fixed effect models are applied to identify the impact of the program on economic outcomes and early childhood development. Although the analysis finds some transitory impacts of the program on economic outcomes, it finds no impacts on early childhood development. Reducing inequality and promoting human development through early childhood development is likely to require specific, targeted, and sustained initiatives.
- Published
- 2016
42. The Impact of a Community Development and Poverty Reduction Program on Early Childhood Development in Morocco
- Author
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Touhami Abdelkhalek, Fouzia Ejjanoui, Safaa El Tayeb El-Kogali, Caroline Krafft, Monica I. Chavez, Lucy Bassett, and Mohamed Benkassmi
- Subjects
Poverty map ,Early childhood education ,Economic growth ,Impact evaluation ,Economics ,Capacity building ,Socioeconomic development ,Early childhood ,Community development ,Human development (humanity) - Abstract
Participatory community development programs are designed to match government investments with local needs. In Morocco, where issues of inequality and poverty are high on the national agenda, a community development program, the National Initiative for Human Development, targeted high-poverty areas for additional investments. This paper examines whether, in addition to reducing poverty, such programs can also promote human development, specifically early childhood development. Early childhood development forms a critical foundation for later human development and plays a key role in the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status. Using panel data on communities just above and below the cutoff for National Initiative for Human Development inclusion in rural areas, regression discontinuity and fixed effect models are applied to identify the impact of the program on economic outcomes and early childhood development. Although the analysis finds some transitory impacts of the program on economic outcomes, it finds no impacts on early childhood development. Reducing inequality and promoting human development through early childhood development is likely to require specific, targeted, and sustained initiatives.
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
43. Poverty Mapping in Tajikistan : Method and Key Findings
- Author
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World Bank Group
- Subjects
poverty line ,census ,poverty assessment ,poverty map - Abstract
National poverty rates are traditionally measured using survey data. To allow for frequent monitoring and to contain the costs of gathering detailed information, such surveys sample only a small subset of the population. This approach necessarily leads to sampling errors however, and as a consequence, a typical household income or expenditure survey cannot produce statistically reliable poverty estimates for small geographic units. This report discusses two means of addressing the issue. The first is commonly referred to as poverty mapping, and derives estimates of monetary poverty as it was officially measured in Tajikistan at the time of the surveys used in the analysis. The second is a multi-dimensional poverty index (MPI) that combines information about individual deprivations to summarize a complimentary, but unofficial, measure of poverty incidence. Poverty mapping is a powerful approach to measuring welfare for highly disaggregated geographic units. A variety of poverty mapping methods have been devised to overcome the increasing imprecision of poverty estimates as they are disaggregated. The standard strategy for estimating a poverty map involves three main stages: (a) identify a comparable set of variables that appear in both the census and the household survey; (b) estimate consumption as a function of the comparable set of variables; and (c) compute welfare indicators on census records based on the parameters derived from the estimations carried out on data from the household survey.
- Published
- 2016
44. Sri Lanka Poverty and Welfare : Recent Progress and Remaining Challenges
- Author
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Newhouse, David Locke, Suarez Becerra, Pablo, and Doan, Dung
- Subjects
MEASURES ,HOUSEHOLD PER CAPITA INCOME ,ECONOMIC GROWTH ,TRANSFERS IN KIND ,EXTREME POVERTY ,RURAL SECTOR ,POVERTY MAP ,EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES ,SCHOOL FEEDING ,FOOD EXPENDITURE ,SUSTAINABLE POVERTY REDUCTION ,RURAL HOUSEHOLDS ,AGRICULTURAL LAND ,EXTREME POVERTY LINE ,POOR ,SAFETY NETS ,UNEMPLOYMENT ,INCOME ,HOUSEHOLD WELFARE ,FARM INCOME ,PRIVATE TRANSFERS ,POVERTY RATES ,AGRICULTURAL WAGES ,FOOD PRICES ,HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION ,POVERTY ,FARM WORK ,TRANSFER PROGRAMS ,WELFARE INDICATORS ,POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATES ,FISCAL CONSTRAINTS ,FOOD ITEMS ,FARMERS ,OLD AGE ,POOR HOUSEHOLD ,RURAL COUNTERPARTS ,HIGHER INEQUALITY ,LABOR MARKET PROGRAMS ,SANITATION ,TRANSFERS ,RURAL POVERTY ,RURAL AREAS ,RURAL POOR ,NATIONAL POVERTY LINE ,POVERTY ASSESSMENT ,POVERTY SEVERITY ,INCOME INEQUALITY ,HOUSEHOLD LIVING STANDARDS ,NUTRITION OUTCOMES ,POVERTY REDUCTION ,CALORIE INTAKE ,CLEAN WATER ,HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS ,INEQUALITY ,POVERTY GAP ,TARGETING ,POVERTY POVERTY ,HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ,IMPACT ON POVERTY ,FOOD EXPENDITURES ,REMOTE AREAS ,POVERTY SITUATION ,ACCESS TO MARKETS ,EMPLOYMENT STATUS ,INCOME DISTRIBUTION ,NATIONAL POVERTY ,FEMALE PARTICIPATION ,FOOD CONSUMPTION ,POOR FAMILIES ,HOUSEHOLD HEAD – AGE ,FARMLAND ,POVERTY ANALYSIS ,POOR CHILDREN ,POVERTY ESTIMATES ,FARM HOUSEHOLDS ,ACCESS TO SERVICES ,HUMAN CAPITAL ,POOR PEOPLE ,INSURANCE ,NUTRITION ,ECONOMIC POLICIES ,POVERTY GAP INDEX ,POVERTY HEADCOUNT INDEX ,AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ,INCIDENCE OF POVERTY ,SOCIAL ASSISTANCE ,HOUSEHOLD INCOME ,POVERTY INCIDENCE ,PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION ,HOUSEHOLD SIZE ,GLOBAL MARKETS ,AGRICULTURAL WORKERS ,INTERNATIONAL POVERTY LINE ,COUNTERFACTUAL ,POVERTY LINES ,AGRICULTURAL WAGE ,AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT ,CONFLICT ,POOR ADULTS ,POOR HOUSEHOLDS ,INEQUALITY REDUCTION ,HOUSEHOLD HEADS ,RURAL ,RURAL POVERTY RATE ,HOUSEHOLD BUDGET ,POVERTY LINE ,SAVINGS ,POVERTY INDICATORS ,PUBLIC WORKS ,RURAL SECTORS ,POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE ,ESTIMATES OF POVERTY ,HOUSEHOLD HEAD ,RURAL ELECTRIFICATION ,POOR ECONOMIC GROWTH - Abstract
Analysis of Sri Lanka’s recent progress in reducing poverty and inequality is directly relevant to the new government’s development agenda. The newly sworn-in president ran for election on a platform that featured, among other goals, inclusive growth and support to the agricultural sector. The pursuit of these and other goals of the new administration can be informed by a fuller understanding of recent developments in household living standards across the country. Yet the World Bank’s most recent poverty assessment in Sri Lanka, covering the period from 1990 to 2002, was published a decade ago. Since then, domestic economic growth, the end of the civil conflict and fluctuations in global markets has led to substantial changes in Sri Lanka’s economic environment. To inform the new government’s development policies, this report examines five topics related to recent developments in poverty and welfare. Sections two through five of the report focus on: (i) trends in poverty, welfare, and inequality since 2002, (ii) labor market outcomes associated with the observed reduction in poverty, (iii) four potential causes of this poverty reduction, (iv) the state of poverty and inequality in 2012/13, and (v) the role of social protection in reducing poverty. Section six concludes by pointing out future implications and remaining knowledge gaps to continue to reduce poverty and improve living standards. This analysis draws mainly on data from the 2002, 2006-07, 2009-10, and 2012-13 rounds of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, supplemented by annual rounds of the labor force survey from 2002 to 2012. Since the surveys could not be conducted in parts of the Northern and Eastern provinces before 2011 due to the civil conflict, their geographical coverage varies from year to year. To ensure comparability, all historical trends presented in this report correspond to the same geographic area. With the exception of figures that are based solely on 2012-13 data, the figures exclude Northern and Eastern provinces, which account for about 12.9 percent of the total population. A more detailed description of the data is provided in appendix one.
- Published
- 2016
45. Sri Lanka Poverty and Welfare: Recent Progress and Remaining Challenges
- Author
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Pablo Suarez Becerra, David Newhouse, and Dung Thi Thuy Doan
- Subjects
Poverty map ,Economic growth ,Extreme poverty ,Rural poverty ,Economic inequality ,Poverty ,Working poor ,Economics ,Poverty gap index ,Basic needs - Abstract
Analysis of Sri Lanka’s recent progress in reducing poverty and inequality is directly relevant to the new government’s development agenda. The newly sworn-in president ran for election on a platform that featured, among other goals, inclusive growth and support to the agricultural sector. The pursuit of these and other goals of the new administration can be informed by a fuller understanding of recent developments in household living standards across the country. Yet the World Bank’s most recent poverty assessment in Sri Lanka, covering the period from 1990 to 2002, was published a decade ago. Since then, domestic economic growth, the end of the civil conflict and fluctuations in global markets has led to substantial changes in Sri Lanka’s economic environment. To inform the new government’s development policies, this report examines five topics related to recent developments in poverty and welfare. Sections two through five of the report focus on: (i) trends in poverty, welfare, and inequality since 2002, (ii) labor market outcomes associated with the observed reduction in poverty, (iii) four potential causes of this poverty reduction, (iv) the state of poverty and inequality in 2012/13, and (v) the role of social protection in reducing poverty. Section six concludes by pointing out future implications and remaining knowledge gaps to continue to reduce poverty and improve living standards. This analysis draws mainly on data from the 2002, 2006-07, 2009-10, and 2012-13 rounds of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, supplemented by annual rounds of the labor force survey from 2002 to 2012. Since the surveys could not be conducted in parts of the Northern and Eastern provinces before 2011 due to the civil conflict, their geographical coverage varies from year to year. To ensure comparability, all historical trends presented in this report correspond to the same geographic area. With the exception of figures that are based solely on 2012-13 data, the figures exclude Northern and Eastern provinces, which account for about 12.9 percent of the total population. A more detailed description of the data is provided in appendix one.
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
46. A Method to Update Poverty Maps
- Author
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Nguyen Viet Cuong
- Subjects
Estimation ,education.field_of_study ,Economic growth ,Inequality ,Poverty ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Population ,Development ,Census ,Poverty map ,Household survey ,Small area estimation ,Geography ,Econometrics ,education ,media_common - Abstract
The small area estimation method proposed by Elbers et al. (Elbers, C., Lanjouw, J. and Lanjouw, P. (2003) Micro-level estimation of poverty and inequality. Econometrica, 71(1), pp. 355–364) combines a household survey and a census to generate a disaggregated map of poverty measures. Since censuses are often conducted every 10 years, construction of poverty maps on a regular basis is not straightforward. This article discusses methods to update poverty maps for years between censuses by combining an old census and new household surveys. These discussed methods are illustrated by producing a poverty map in Vietnam for the years 2004 and 2006 using the 1999 Population and Housing Census and Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys in 2002, 2004 and 2006. The validation of the updating methods is examined by comparing poverty estimates in 2006 obtained from the updating methods with benchmark poverty estimates obtained from the standard ‘small area estimation’ method using data from the 2006 Vietna...
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
47. The local geographies of welfare in Tunisia: Does neighbourhood matter?*
- Author
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Mohamed Ayadi and Mohamed Amara
- Subjects
Sociology and Political Science ,Poverty ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Regression analysis ,Spatial heterogeneity ,Poverty map ,Geography ,Economy ,Autoregressive model ,Econometrics ,Neighbourhood (mathematics) ,Welfare ,Spatial analysis ,media_common - Abstract
Amara M, Ayadi M. The local geographies of welfare in Tunisia: Does neighbourhood matter? The aim of this article is to show that spatial analysis techniques outperform non-spatial statistical counterparts for understanding the geographic determinants of welfare and poverty in Tunisia. First, an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, based on a Geographical Information System, was conducted to visualise the local spatial structure of welfare. Second, a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, respectively, were used to deal with both spatial autocorrelations and unobserved spatial heterogeneity of households' behaviours. Spatial and non-spatial models were compared according to their predictive performances. Results of this case study confirm that SAR and GWR spatial models are preferable to the traditional non-spatial regression model and that they give a better approximation of the Tunisian poverty map.
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. Poverty projection using a small area estimation method: Evidence from Vietnam
- Author
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Nguyen Viet Cuong
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Poverty ,business.industry ,Poverty measurement ,Monitoring and evaluation ,Census ,Poverty map ,Small area estimation ,Geography ,Agriculture ,Development economics ,Regional science ,business ,Projection (set theory) - Abstract
For poverty monitoring and evaluation, one needs poverty estimates at the different disaggregation levels. The prediction of poverty trend is also of interest for policy makers as well as researchers. This paper presents a method – that is based on a small area estimation method of Elbers et al. (2003) – to project a map of disaggregated poverty measures in the future. This method is applied to project a poverty map in rural Vietnam for the year 2008 using the 2006 Rural, Agricultural and Fishery Census and the 2004 and 2006 Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys.
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. Mapping natural resource-based poverty, with an application to rural Syria
- Author
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Eddy De Pauw, Aden Aw-Hassan, Roberto La Rovere, and Judit Szonyi
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,education.field_of_study ,Resource (biology) ,Sociology and Political Science ,Poverty ,Natural resource economics ,Population ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Development ,Natural resource ,Poverty map ,Geography ,Income distribution ,Development economics ,Agricultural productivity ,Rural area ,education ,Food Science - Abstract
This study presents advances in resource-based poverty mapping. It illustrates how agricultural income distribution maps can be generated at small pixel-level, providing an application of the approach in rural Syria. Census data on agriculture and population are disaggregated based on pixel-level agricultural productivity coefficients derived in a GIS environment. The approach, triangulated with survey results and compared with sub-national poverty maps, shows that the better-income areas of Syria are located in the irrigated and higher-rainfall areas, though lower-income pockets exist due to the presence of ecological and topographic factors or due to high population density. The method can be used for developing high-resolution, low cost maps for rapid detection of resource-driven poverty in low income countries where agriculture is a major source of rural income, and where poverty mapping is rarely undertaken due to the high costs involved.
- Published
- 2010
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
50. Using Census and Survey Data to Estimate Poverty and Inequality for Small Areas
- Author
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Angus Deaton and Alessandro Tarozzi
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Inequality ,Poverty ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Homogeneity (statistics) ,Census ,Confidence interval ,Poverty map ,Survey methodology ,Geography ,Statistics ,Econometrics ,Survey data collection ,Social Sciences (miscellaneous) ,media_common - Abstract
Household expenditure survey data cannot yield precise estimates of poverty or inequality for small areas for which no or few observations are available. Census data are more plentiful, but typically exclude income and expenditure data. Recent years have seen a widespread use of small-area “poverty maps” based on census data enriched by relationships estimated from household surveys that predict variables not covered by the census. These methods are used to estimate putatively precise estimates of poverty and inequality for areas as small as 20,000 households. In this paper we argue that to usefully match survey and census data in this way requires a degree of spatial homogeneity for which the method provides no basis, and which is unlikely to be satisfied in practice. The relationships that are used to bridge the surveys and censuses are not structural but are projections of missing variables on a subset of those variables that happen to be common to the survey and the census supplemented by local census means appended to the survey. As such, the coefficients of the projections will generally vary from area to area in response to variables that are not included in the analysis. Estimates of poverty and inequality that assume homogeneity will generally be inconsistent in the presence of spatial heterogeneity, and error variances calculated on the assumption of homogeneity will underestimate mean squared errors and overestimate the coverage of calculated confidence intervals. We use data from the 2000 census of Mexico to construct synthetic “household surveys” and to simulate the poverty mapping process using a robust method of estimation; our simulations show that while the poverty maps contain useful information, their nominal confidence intervals give a misleading idea of precision.
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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