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1. A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

Author

Tittensor, Derek P., Eddy, Tyler D., Lotze, Heike K., Galbraith, Eric D., Cheung, William, Barange, Manuel, Blanchard, Julia L., Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, Büchner, Matthias, Bulman, Catherine, Carozza, David A., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P., Fernandes, Jose A., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Hobday, Alistair J., Huber, Veronika, Jennings, Simon, Jones, Miranda, Lehodey, Patrick, Link, Jason S., Mackinson, Steve, Maury, Olivier, Niiranen, Susa, Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo, Roy, Tilla, Schewe, Jacob, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Silva, Tiago, Stock, Charles A., Steenbeek, Jeroen, Underwood, Philip J., Volkholz, Jan, Watson, James R., Walker, Nicola D., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia (UBC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [Nouvelle-Calédonie]), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Marine Ecosystems Modeling and Monitoring by Satellites (MEMMS), CLS, MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), University of Cape Town, Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Computer Science, Hong Kong Baptist University (HKBU), GLOBEC IPO, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Food Science, FFUP, Division of Ecosystem Sciences, The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, School of Geography, University of North London, Environnement et Grandes Cultures (EGC), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), UMR 212 EME 'écosystèmes marins exploités' (EME), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Chimie des Interactions Plasma-Surface (ChIPS) (ChIPS), Université de Mons-Hainaut, Hong Kong Baptist University ( HKBU ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), University of British Columbia ( UBC ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement ( IRD [Nouvelle-Calédonie] ), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research ( CSIRO-MAR ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] ( CSIRO ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Marine Ecosystems Modeling and Monitoring by Satellites ( MEMMS ), Environnement et Grandes Cultures ( EGC ), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Instituto del Mar del Peru ( IMARPE ), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung ( PIK ), UMR 212 EME 'écosystèmes marins exploités' ( EME ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement ( IRD ) -Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer ( IFREMER ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ), and Chimie des Interactions Plasma-Surface (ChIPS) ( ChIPS )

Subjects
[ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography
Abstract

International audience; Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development , contrasted within-and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning , processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercompari-son Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium-and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

Published
2018

2. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Author

Schewe, J., Gosling, S., Reyer, C., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J., Francois, L., Huber, V., Lotze, H., Seneviratne I, S., van Vliet, M., Vautard, R., Wada, Y., Breuer, L., Buechner, M., Carozza, D., Chang, J., Coll, M., Deryng, D., de Wit, A., Eddy, T., Folberth, C., Frieler, K., Friend, A., Gerten, D., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lawrence, P., Morfopoulos, C., Mueller, C., Schmied, H., Orth, R., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Pugh, T., Sakurai, G., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4637-5337, Steenbeek, J., Steinkamp, J., Tang, Q., Tian, H., Tittensor, D., Volkholz, J., Wang, X., Warszawski, L., Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), University of Nottingham, UK (UON), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), East China Normal University [Shangaï] (ECNU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Chicago, Institut d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique [Liège], Université de Liège, Dalhousie University [Halifax], Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Inst Landscape Ecol & Resources Management, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen = Justus Liebig University (JLU), Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geosciences [Oslo], Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences [Oslo], University of Oslo (UiO)-University of Oslo (UiO), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Institute of Industrial Science (IIS), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Groupe Immunité des Muqueuses et Agents Pathogènes (GIMAP), Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Schewe, Jacob [0000-0001-9455-4159], Gosling, Simon N [0000-0001-5973-6862], Ciais, Philippe [0000-0001-8560-4943], Lotze, Heike K [0000-0001-6258-1304], Seneviratne, Sonia I [0000-0001-9528-2917], van Vliet, Michelle TH [0000-0002-2597-8422], Vautard, Robert [0000-0001-5544-9903], Wada, Yoshihide [0000-0003-4770-2539], Breuer, Lutz [0000-0001-9720-1076], Carozza, David A [0000-0001-7343-9442], Chang, Jinfeng [0000-0003-4463-7778], Coll, Marta [0000-0001-6235-5868], de Wit, Allard [0000-0002-5517-6404], Eddy, Tyler D [0000-0002-2833-9407], Folberth, Christian [0000-0002-6738-5238], Gerten, Dieter [0000-0002-6214-6991], Gudmundsson, Lukas [0000-0003-3539-8621], Hanasaki, Naota [0000-0002-5092-7563], Ito, Akihiko [0000-0001-5265-0791], Khabarov, Nikolay [0000-0001-5372-4668], Kim, Hyungjun [0000-0003-1083-8416], Lawrence, Peter [0000-0002-4843-4903], Müller, Christoph [0000-0002-9491-3550], Müller Schmied, Hannes [0000-0001-5330-9923], Ostberg, Sebastian [0000-0002-2368-7015], Pokhrel, Yadu [0000-0002-1367-216X], Steenbeek, Jeroen [0000-0002-7878-8075], Steinkamp, Jörg [0000-0002-7861-8789], Tang, Qiuhong [0000-0002-0886-6699], Tian, Hanqin [0000-0002-1806-4091], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, European Commission, and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany)

Subjects
Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, WIMEK, 0602 Ecology, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Science, Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica, Life Science, Water Systems and Global Change, lcsh:Q, PE&RC, lcsh:Science, Article
Abstract

14 pages, 6 figures, supplementary information .-- Data availability. Simulation data from gridded impact models is available through https://esg.pik-potsdam.de/projects/isimip2a/ and citable using the following DOIs: https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.002 (terrestrial ecosystems); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.006 (agriculture); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.010 (hydrology); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2018.004 (marine ecosystems, regional); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2018.005 (marine ecosystems, global). The city-level mortality model data and country-level hydropower model data are available from the authors upon request, Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought, The work was supported within the framework of the Leibniz Competition (SAW-2013-PIK-5), the EU FP7 project HELIX (grant no. FP7–603864–2), the FP7 project IMPACT2C (grant agreement#282746) and by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant no. 01LS1201A1)

Published
2019

3. Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade

Author

Daioglou, Vassilis, Muratori, Matteo, Lamers, Patrick, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Kitous, Alban, Köberle, Alexandre C., Bauer, Nico, Junginger, Martin, Kato, Etsushi, Leblanc, Florian, Mima, Silvana, Wise, Marshal, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, Energy, Resources & Technological Change, Biobased Economy, Energy and Resources, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Dipartimento di Matematica, 'Francesco Brioschi', Politecnico di Milano [Milan] (POLIMI), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Enerdata, Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UNIRIO), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Utrecht University [Utrecht], Tokyo Institute of Technology [Tokyo] (TITECH), Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Département Environnements et Sociétés (Cirad-ES), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble (GAEL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)-University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Chaire MPDD, Environmental Sciences, Energy, Resources & Technological Change, Biobased Economy, and Energy and Resources

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, 020209 energy, Energy security, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Scenario analysis, EMF, Integrated assessment models, Bioenergy, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Economics, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global and Planetary Change, business.industry, Energy modeling, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Renewable energy, Climate change mitigation scenarios, Climate change mitigation, 13. Climate action, Climate policy, business, Bioenergy trade
Abstract

Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.

Published
2020

4. Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

Author

Heike K. Lotze, Jan Volkholz, Jacob Schewe, Susa Niiranen, David A. Carozza, Julia L. Blanchard, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tilla Roy, Charles A. Stock, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Steve Mackinson, Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, William W. L. Cheung, Matthias Büchner, Philippe Verley, Boris Worm, Miranda C. Jones, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Eric D. Galbraith, Jose A. Fernandes, Manuel Barange, Simon Jennings, Olivier Maury, Laurent Bopp, John P. Dunne, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Tiago H. Silva, Nicolas Barrier, Daniele Bianchi, Nicola D. Walker, Marta Coll, Jeroen Steenbeek, Catherine M. Bulman, Villy Christensen, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (UK), European Commission, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Australian Research Council, Department of Computer Science, Hong Kong Baptist University (HKBU), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Montréal] (EPS), McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], GLOBEC IPO, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Laboratoire de physique des océans (LPO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, University of British Columbia (UBC), Institute of Marine Sciences / Institut de Ciències del Mar [Barcelona] (ICM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), CSIRO Marine and Atmosphere Research [Hobart], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), School of Geography, University of North London, Stockholm University, Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE), Food Science, FFUP, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Chimie des Interactions Plasma-Surface (ChIPS) (ChIPS), Université de Mons-Hainaut, Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl), Ministry of Defence (UK) (MOD), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), McGill University, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Spain] (CSIC)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, Aquatic Organisms, Food Chain, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate Change, Oceans and Seas, Fisheries, Climate change, Atmospheric sciences, [SDV.BID.SPT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, 01 natural sciences, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Theoretical, Effects of global warming, Models, global ecosystem modeling, Animals, Marine ecosystem, Intercomparison, 14. Life underwater, Biomass, Trophic cascade, uncertainty, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Trophic level, Biomass (ecology), marine food webs, Multidisciplinary, Ensemble forecasting, Ecology, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, climate change impacts, Fishes, 15. Life on land, [SDV.BV.BOT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Botanics, Biological Sciences, Models, Theoretical, Food web, Climate Action, model intercomparison, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Model
Abstract

6 pages, 5 figures, supporting information https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900194116.-- All data reported in this paper are archived and publicly available at http://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/showshort.php?id=escidoc:2956913., While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends, Financial support was provided by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through ISI-MIP (Grant01LS1201A1), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program (Grant 678193), and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G). We acknowledge additional financial support as follows: to H.K.L., W.W.L.C., and B.W. from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada; to D.P.T. from the Kanne Rasmussen Foundation Denmark; to A.B.-B. from the NSERC Transatlantic Ocean Science and Technology Program; to W.W.L.C. and T.D.E. from the Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program; to E.D.G., M.C. and J. Steenbeek from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Re-search and Innovation Program (Grants 682602 and 689518); to E.A.F., J.L.B., andT.R. from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and the Australian Research Council; to N.B., L.B., and O.M. from the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche and Pôle de Calcul et de Données pour la Mer; and to S.J. from the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Published
2019

5. Regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological applications: evaluation of uncertainties

Author

Sven Kotlarski, R. Knoche, A. Block, Daniela Jacob, Diana Rechid, Klaus Keuler, U. Böhm, A. Walter, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Brandenburgische Technische Universität Cottbus-Senftenberg, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD), and EGU, Publication

Subjects
lcsh:Dynamic and structural geology, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Reference data (financial markets), 0207 environmental engineering, Magnitude (mathematics), [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Cru, 02 engineering and technology, General Medicine, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Geology, Set (abstract data type), lcsh:QE500-639.5, 13. Climate action, Climatology, [SDU.STU] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Environmental science, lcsh:Q, Climate model, Precipitation, lcsh:Science, 020701 environmental engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

The ERA15 Reanalysis (1979-1993) has been dynamically downscaled over Central Europe using 4 different regional climate models. The regional simulations were analysed with respect to 2m temperature and total precipitation, the main input parameters for hydrological applications. Model results were validated against three reference data sets (ERA15, CRU, DWD) and uncertainty ranges were derived. For mean annual 2 m temperature over Germany, the simulation bias lies between -1.1°C and +0.9°C depending on the combination of model and reference data set. The bias of mean annual precipitation varies between -31 and +108 mm/year. Differences between RCM results are of the same magnitude as differences between the reference data sets.

Published
2018

6. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author

H. Kim, I. M. D. Rosa, R. Alkemade, P. Leadley, G. Hurtt, A. Popp, D. P. van Vuuren, P. Anthoni, A. Arneth, D. Baisero, E. Caton, R. Chaplin-Kramer, L. Chini, A. De Palma, F. Di Fulvio, M. Di Marco, F. Espinoza, S. Ferrier, S. Fujimori, R. E. Gonzalez, M. Gueguen, C. Guerra, M. Harfoot, T. D. Harwood, T. Hasegawa, V. Haverd, P. Havlík, S. Hellweg, S. L. L. Hill, A. Hirata, A. J. Hoskins, J. H. Janse, W. Jetz, J. A. Johnson, A. Krause, D. Leclère, I. S. Martins, T. Matsui, C. Merow, M. Obersteiner, H. Ohashi, B. Poulter, A. Purvis, B. Quesada, C. Rondinini, A. M. Schipper, R. Sharp, K. Takahashi, W. Thuiller, N. Titeux, P. Visconti, C. Ware, F. Wolf, H. M. Pereira, Aquatic Ecology (AqE), Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE), Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts (ENGREF)-Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA ), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship [Brisbane], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Land and Water Flagship [Canberra], Martin-Luther-Universität Halle Wittenberg (MLU), Yale University [New Haven], International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Montana State University (MSU), Division of Biology [London], Imperial College London, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, CARBON-CYCLE MODELS, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, RANGE SHIFTS, Ecosystem modeling, Biodiversity, 01 natural sciences, Ecosystem services, Carbon-cycle models, terrestrial biodiversity, species distribution, global biodiversity, atmoshere-ocean, simpler model, range switch, impacts, vegetation, future, TERRESTRIAL BIODIVERSITY, 11. Sustainability, SPECIES DISTRIBUTION, ddc:550, Climate change, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, Land use change, Environmental planning, Strategic planning, 0303 health sciences, Convention on Biological Diversity, ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN, Environmental resource management, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Geology, Representative Concentration Pathways, General Medicine, international, Milieusysteemanalyse, Physical Sciences, IMPACTS, Conservation status, Ecosystem service, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 04 Earth Sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), Harmonization, 010603 evolutionary biology, LPJ-GUESS, Intergovernmental panel on climate change, 03 medical and health sciences, FUTURE, Modelling and Simulation, Life Science, IPBES, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Science & Technology, Land use, business.industry, 15. Life on land, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, Environmental Systems Analysis, GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY, 13. Climate action, Strategic approach, Environmental science, VEGETATION, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business, SIMPLER MODEL, Global biodiversity
Abstract

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios. ISSN:1991-9603 ISSN:1991-959X

Published
2018

7. The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models

Author

Zhao, Fang, Veldkamp, Ted, Frieler, Katja, Schewe, Jacob, Ostberg, Sebastian, Willner, Sven, Schauberger, Bernhard, Gosling, Simon, Schmied, Hannes Müller, Portmann, Felix, Leng, Guoyong, Huang, Maoyi, Liu, Xingcai, Tang, Qiuhong, Hanasaki, Naota, Biemans, Hester, Gerten, Dieter, Satoh, Yusuke, Pokhrel, Yadu, Stacke, Tobias, Ciais, Philippe, Chang, Jinfeng, Guimberteau, Matthieu, Ducharne, Agnès, Wada, Yoshihide, Kim, Hyungjun, Yamazaki, Dai, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Water and Food Group, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols (METIS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Institute of Industrial Science (IIS), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Water and Climate Risk, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), The University of Tokyo, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
GRDC, Water and Food, ISIMIP, global hydrological models, river routing, Water en Voedsel, daily runoff, flood, Climate Resilience, Klimaatbestendigheid, peak river discharge, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, SDG 6 - Clean Water and Sanitation, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971–2010) within the ISIMIP2a project.The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about 2/3 of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.

Published
2017

8. Assessing inter-sectoral climate change risks: the role of ISIMIP

Author

Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Arnell, Nigel W., Ebi, Kristie L., Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Raes, Frank, Rapley, Chris, Smith, Mark Stafford, Cramer, Wolfgang, Frieler, Katja, Reyer, Christopher P O, Schewe, Jacob, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Warszawski, Lila, Environmental Sciences, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Global Health [Seattle], University of Washington [Seattle], Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Humboldt University Of Berlin, University College of London [London] (UCL), CSIRO Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University [Utrecht], Environmental Sciences, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Avignon Université (AU)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Standardization, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Climate change, Context (language use), 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, 12. Responsible consumption, Environmental Science(all), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 11. Sustainability, Impact model, ddc:550, Renewable Energy, Adaptation (computer science), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Sustainable development, Sustainability and the Environment, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, business.industry, Environmental and Occupational Health, Environmental resource management, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 550 Geowissenschaften, 13. Climate action, Climate model, Public Health, Business, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology
Abstract

International audience; The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socioeconomic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Published
2017

9. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming - Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Author

K. Frieler, S. Lange, F. Piontek, C. P. O. Reyer, J. Schewe, L. Warszawski, F. Zhao, L. Chini, S. Denvil, K. Emanuel, T. Geiger, K. Halladay, G. Hurtt, M. Mengel, D. Murakami, S. Ostberg, A. Popp, R. Riva, M. Stevanovic, T. Suzuki, J. Volkholz, E. Burke, P. Ciais, K. Ebi, T. D. Eddy, J. Elliott, E. Galbraith, S. N. Gosling, F. Hattermann, T. Hickler, J. Hinkel, C. Hof, V. Huber, J. Jägermeyr, V. Krysanova, R. Marcé, H. Müller Schmied, I. Mouratiadou, D. Pierson, D. P. Tittensor, R. Vautard, M. van Vliet, M. F. Biber, R. A. Betts, B. L. Bodirsky, D. Deryng, S. Frolking, C. D. Jones, H. K. Lotze, H. Lotze-Campen, R. Sahajpal, K. Thonicke, H. Tian, Y. Yamagata, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Institute for Computational Mechanics, Technische Universität Munchen - Université Technique de Munich [Munich, Allemagne] (TUM), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of Chicago, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Montréal] (EPS), McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], School of Geography [Nottingham], University of Nottingham, UK (UON), Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main-Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research - Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Leibniz Association-Leibniz Association, Global Climate Forum e.V., Senckenberg Museum [Frankfurt], Research Domain Earth System Analysis, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Scottish Agricultural College, University of Edinburgh, Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], University of Exeter, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), University of New Hampshire (UNH), University of Reading (UOR), Dalhousie University [Halifax], Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Emanuel, Kerry Andrew, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, 12. Responsible consumption, Conference of the parties, Political science, 11. Sustainability, Impact model, Life Science, 14. Life underwater, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Protocol (object-oriented programming), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, WIMEK, business.industry, Global warming, Environmental resource management, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap, General Medicine, 15. Life on land, 020801 environmental engineering, lcsh:Geology, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Water Systems and Global Change, Earth and Related Environmental Sciences, business
Abstract

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552 In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Published
2017

10. Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO 2

Author

Pete Falloon, Patricia Cadule, Andrew D. Friend, Sibyll Schaphoff, Kazuya Nishina, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Tim T. Rademacher, Rozenn Keribin, Douglas B. Clark, Philippe Peylin, Ryan Pavlick, Mark R. Lomas, Andy Wiltshire, Nicolas Vuichard, Ron Kahana, Axel Kleidon, Rutger Dankers, F. Ian Woodward, Sebastian Ostberg, Lila Warszawski, Richard Betts, Wolfgang Lucht, University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Animal and Plant Sciences [Sheffield], University of Sheffield [Sheffield], Global Centre for Environmental Research (GCER), University of Newcastle (UoN), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Friend, Andrew [0000-0002-9029-1045], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository

Subjects
Mediterranean climate, NPP, Time Factors, Climate Change, Climate change, Atmospheric sciences, Carbon cycle, Carbon Cycle, 11. Sustainability, Computer Simulation, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Biomass (ecology), Multidisciplinary, Atmosphere, Global Climate Impacts: A Cross-Sector, Multi-Model Assessment Special Feature, Uncertainty, Primary production, ISI-MIP, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, Carbon Dioxide, Models, Theoretical, Plants, Turnover, Carbon, GVM, DGVM, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Terrestrial ecosystem, Forecasting
Abstract

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO 2 ), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO 2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.

Published
2014

11. Preface

Author

Christine Hatté, Christophe R. Quétel, Franz-W. Badeck, Jaleh Ghashghaie, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE), Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Géochrononologie Traceurs Archéométrie (GEOTRAC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), JRC Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements [Geel] (IRMM), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Geel] (JRC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
Hydrology, Stable isotope ratio, [CHIM.ORGA]Chemical Sciences/Organic chemistry, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, River water, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, Inorganic Chemistry, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDU.STU.GC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geochemistry, [SDU.STU.ST]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Stratigraphy, [SHS.ENVIR]Humanities and Social Sciences/Environmental studies, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, Water quality, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Joint (geology), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, General Environmental Science
Abstract

International audience

Published
2009

12. Foreword

Author

Ghashghaie Jaleh, Hatte Christine, Quetel Christophe, W Badeck Franz, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE), Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Géochrononologie Traceurs Archéométrie (GEOTRAC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), JRC Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements [Geel] (IRMM), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Geel] (JRC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
Physics, Chromatography, [CHIM.ORGA]Chemical Sciences/Organic chemistry, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Organic Chemistry, Mass spectrometry, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, Analytical Chemistry, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDU.STU.GC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geochemistry, [SDU.STU.ST]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Stratigraphy, [SHS.ENVIR]Humanities and Social Sciences/Environmental studies, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Spectroscopy, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2009

13. Reliability of regional climate model simulations of extremes and of long-term climate

Author

Böhm, U., Kücken, M., Hauffe, D., Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Werner, P. C., Flechsig, M., Keuler, K., Block, A., Ahrens, W., Nocke, Th., Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), University of Potsdam, Brandenburg University of Technology [Cottbus – Senftenberg] (BTU), and Universität Rostock

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Institut für Geowissenschaften, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract

International audience; We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Niño event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near-surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our methodology to be applied as a common test bed to different fields of research in regional climate modeling.

Published
2004

14. Mid-Holocene greening of the Sahara: first results of the GAIM 6000 year BP Experiment with two asynchronously coupled atmosphere/biome models

Author

Colin Prentice, Martin Claussen, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
ECHAM, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, Subsidence (atmosphere), Forcing (mathematics), 15. Life on land, Radiative forcing, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Monsoon, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Paleoclimatology, Climate model, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Geology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

The mid-Holocene `green' Sahara represents the largest anomaly of the atmosphere-biosphere system during the last 12 000 years. Although this anomaly is attributed to precessional forcing leading to a strong enhancement of the African monsoon, no climate model so far has been able to simulate the full extent of vegetation in the Sahara region 6000 years ago. Here two atmospheric general circulation models (LMD 5.3 and ECHAM 3) are asynchronously coupled to an equilibrium biogeography model to give steady-state simulations of climate and vegetation 6000 years ago, including biogeophysical feedback. The two model results are surprisingly different, and neither is fully realistic. ECHAM shows a large northward extension of vegetation in the western part of the Sahara only. LMD shows a much smaller and more zonal vegetation shift. These results are unaffected by the choice of `green' or modern initial conditions. The inability of LMD to sustain a `green' Sahara 6000 years ago is linked to the simulated strength of the tropical summer circulation. During the northern summer monsoon season, the meridional gradient of sea-level pressure and subsidence over the western part of northern Africa are both much weaker in ECHAM than in LMD in the present as well as the mid-Holocene. These features allow the surface moist air flux to penetrate further into northern Africa in ECHAM than in LMD. This comparison illustrates the importance of correct simulation of atmospheric circulation features for the sensitivity of climate models to changes in radiative forcing, particularly for regional climates where atmospheric changes are amplified by biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.

Published
2000

15. A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

Author

Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, David J. Beerling, Lila Warszawski, Ryan Pavlick, Sebastian Ostberg, Rozenn Keribin, Douglas B. Clark, Jacob Schewe, Katja Frieler, Franziska Piontek, Matthias Buechner, Wolfgang Lucht, Patricia Cadule, Axel Kleidon, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Sibyll Schaphoff, Tim T. Rademacher, Andrew D. Friend, Mark R. Lomas, Ron Kahana, Kazuya Nishina, Olivia Serdeczny, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield [Sheffield], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Animal and Plant Sciences [Sheffield], Department of Geography [Cambridge, UK], Santa Fe Institute, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, Biogeochemical cycle, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Shrubland, Meteorology and Climatology, global vegetation, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Ecosystem, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Amazon rainforest, Ecology, ecosystem change, Global warming, Taiga, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 15. Life on land, Tundra, climate change, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology
Abstract

International audience; Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth's ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest.

Published
2013

16. [The potential of nutrition for pain management and planetary health].

Author

Pörtner LM, Koppold DA, Kessler CS, Michalsen A, and Jeitler M

Subjects
Earth, Planet, Environmental Health, Diet, Pain Management
Abstract

The consumption of western diets that are often rich in animal-source foods and low in wholesome, plant-based foods, has grave implications for public health. This is expressed in a growing prevalence of obesity as well as high rates of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases and some cancers. At the same time, current global dietary patterns are major contributors to global environmental challenges, i.e. the climate and the biodiversity crisis, and are thereby a major threat to planetary health. Shifting to more plant-based diets, e.g. in line with the "Planetary Health Diet", provides a major opportunity to improve individual and planetary health. Plant-based dietary patterns with an increase in the consumption of anti-inflammatory and a decrease in pro-inflammatory substances can also lead to improvements in pain symptoms, especially in inflammatory or degenerative joint diseases. In addition, dietary shifts are a prerequisite to achieve global environmental targets and thereby ensure a livable and healthy future for everyone. Medical professionals therefore have a special responsibility to actively promote this transformation., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Medizin Verlag GmbH, ein Teil von Springer Nature.)

Published
2023
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