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This paper analyzes the displacement of Brazilian exports of matching products by China in selected countries markets in South America: Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. These countries are relevant to Brazilian international trade, especially in manufactured products. The paper uses the Constant Market Share (CMS) methodology, with data from the period 2005 to 2019. The results indicate losses for Brazil in trade with the countries analyzed, while there are gains for China. Such losses are more significant in the periods 2005-2009 and 2010-2014, and in trade for Argentina. Still, the displacement of Brazilian exports by China is concentrated on Medium-Low and Medium-High technological intensity products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the composition of Brazilian basket exports and investigates the main factors that explain the high share of natural resources exports in the period from 2000 to 2018. For this, it applies the cointegration methodology by estimation of an Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model to evaluate the effects of international commodity prices, real exchange rate, foreign demand and interest rate on natural resource exports. The results show the relevance of external demand (China effect) and commodity prices to explain the long run performance of those exports, leaving the basket exports vulnerable to cyclical variables that can be reversed over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industry and economic growth. The work develops an empirical investigation on the relevance of industry / GDP, manufacture / GDP and industrial employment / total employment on long run growth using panel data. The results indicate the existence of a direct and significant relation for industry (manufacture) share to GDP and industrial employment for long run growth. The annual impact on growth of a 10% increase, over a five year period, in the industry share to GDP (manufacture share to GDP) ranges from 0.19% to 0.32% (0.2% to 0.4%) and for the industrial employment / total employment it varies from 0.3% to 0.5%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]