COMPOSIÇÃO E DETERMINANTES DAS EXPORTAÇÕES BRASILEIRAS INTENSIVAS EM RECURSOS NATURAIS NO PERÍODO DE 2000 A 2018.

This paper analyzes the composition of Brazilian basket exports and investigates the main factors that explain the high share of natural resources exports in the period from 2000 to 2018. For this, it applies the cointegration methodology by estimation of an Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model to evaluate the effects of international commodity prices, real exchange rate, foreign demand and interest rate on natural resource exports. The results show the relevance of external demand (China effect) and commodity prices to explain the long run performance of those exports, leaving the basket exports vulnerable to cyclical variables that can be reversed over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]