1. Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence
- Author
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Francesco Brizzi, Martyn Plummer, Valerie Delpech, Paul J Birrell, Alison Brown, O Noel Gill, Daniela De Angelis, Peter Kirwan, Brizzi, Francesco [0000-0003-4181-8522], Birrell, Paul J [0000-0001-8131-4893], Plummer, Martyn T [0000-0001-5130-6497], De Angelis, Daniela [0000-0001-6619-6112], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
- Subjects
Splines ,Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Time Factors ,Adolescent ,Bayesian probability ,Bayesian inference ,HIV Infections ,01 natural sciences ,Risk Assessment ,Article ,Back calculation ,010104 statistics & probability ,03 medical and health sciences ,Young Adult ,0302 clinical medicine ,Epidemiology ,medicine ,Prevalence ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,0101 mathematics ,Estimation ,Likelihood Functions ,Wales ,business.industry ,Applied Mathematics ,Incidence (epidemiology) ,Risk of infection ,Incidence ,Hiv incidence ,Bayes Theorem ,General Medicine ,Multi-state model ,Middle Aged ,R1 ,Back-calculation ,3. Good health ,England ,Population Surveillance ,business ,RA ,Routinely collected data ,Demography - Abstract
CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their inter-related contribution to the observed surveillance data. This paper, extends existing approaches to age-specific settings, permitting the joint estimation of age- and time-specific incidence and diagnosis rates and the derivation of other epidemiological quantities of interest. This allows the identification of specific age-groups at higher risk of infection, which is crucial in directing public health interventions. We investigate, through simulation studies, the suitability of various bivariate splines for the non-parametric modelling of the latent age- and time-specific incidence and illustrate our method on routinely collected data from the HIV epidemic among gay and bisexual men in England and Wales. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10985-019-09465-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
- Published
- 2019