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Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence
- Source :
- Lifetime Data Analysis
- Publication Year :
- 2019
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2019.
-
Abstract
- CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their inter-related contribution to the observed surveillance data. This paper, extends existing approaches to age-specific settings, permitting the joint estimation of age- and time-specific incidence and diagnosis rates and the derivation of other epidemiological quantities of interest. This allows the identification of specific age-groups at higher risk of infection, which is crucial in directing public health interventions. We investigate, through simulation studies, the suitability of various bivariate splines for the non-parametric modelling of the latent age- and time-specific incidence and illustrate our method on routinely collected data from the HIV epidemic among gay and bisexual men in England and Wales. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10985-019-09465-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
- Subjects :
- Splines
Adult
Male
medicine.medical_specialty
Time Factors
Adolescent
Bayesian probability
Bayesian inference
HIV Infections
01 natural sciences
Risk Assessment
Article
Back calculation
010104 statistics & probability
03 medical and health sciences
Young Adult
0302 clinical medicine
Epidemiology
medicine
Prevalence
Humans
030212 general & internal medicine
0101 mathematics
Estimation
Likelihood Functions
Wales
business.industry
Applied Mathematics
Incidence (epidemiology)
Risk of infection
Incidence
Hiv incidence
Bayes Theorem
General Medicine
Multi-state model
Middle Aged
R1
Back-calculation
3. Good health
England
Population Surveillance
business
RA
Routinely collected data
Demography
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 13807870
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Lifetime Data Analysis
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....eefba543dd143c939b22f325b38ee397