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BackgroundAn estimated 40% of people who developed tuberculosis in 2021 were not diagnosed or treated. Pre-chemotherapy era data are a rich resource on survival for people with untreated TB. We aimed to identify heterogeneities in these data to inform more precise use of them.MethodsWe extracted survival data from pre-chemotherapy era papers reporting TB specific mortality and/or natural recovery data. We used Bayesian parametric survival analysis to model the survival distribution, stratifying by geography (North America versus Europe), time (pre-1930 versus post-1930), and setting (sanitoria versus non-sanitoria).ResultsWe found 12 studies with TB-specific mortality data. Ten-year survival was 69% in North America (95 CI: 54%-81%) and 36% in Europe (95% CI: 10%-71%). Only 38% (95% CI: 18%-63%) of non-sanitorium individuals survived to 10 years compared to 69% (95% CI: 41%-87%) of sanitoria/hospitalized patients. There were no significant differences between people diagnosed pre-1930 and post-1930 (five-year survival pre-1930: 65%; 95% CI: 44%-88% versus post-1930: 72%; 95% CI: 41%-94%).ConclusionsMortality and natural recovery risks vary substantially by location and setting. These heterogeneities need to be considered when using pre-chemotherapy data to make inferences about expected survival of people with undiagnosed TB.

Background Antibiotic treatments are often associated with a late slowdown in bacterial killing. This separates the killing of bacteria into at least two distinct phases: a quick phase followed by a slower phase, the latter of which is linked to treatment success. Current mechanistic explanations for the in vitro slowdown are either antibiotic persistence or heteroresistance. Persistence is defined as the switching back and forth between susceptible and non-susceptible states, while heteroresistance is defined as the coexistence of bacteria with heterogeneous susceptibilities. Both are also thought to cause a slowdown in the decline of bacterial populations in patients and therefore complicate and prolong antibiotic treatments. Reduced bacterial death rates over time are also observed within tuberculosis patients, yet the mechanistic reasons for this are unknown and therefore the strategies to mitigate them are also unknown. Methods and findings We analyse a dose ranging trial for rifampicin in tuberculosis patients and show that there is a slowdown in the decline of bacteria. We show that the late phase of bacterial killing depends more on the peak drug concentrations than the total drug exposure. We compare these to pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models of rifampicin heteroresistance and persistence. We find that the observation on the slow phase’s dependence on pharmacokinetic measures, specifically peak concentrations are only compatible with models of heteroresistance and incompatible with models of persistence. The quantitative agreement between heteroresistance models and observations is very good (Radj2=0.97). To corroborate the importance of the slowdown, we validate our results by estimating the time to sputum culture conversion and compare the results to a different dose ranging trial. Conclusions Our findings indicate that higher doses, specifically higher peak concentrations may be used to optimize rifampicin treatments by accelerating bacterial killing in the slow phase. It adds to the growing body of literature supporting higher rifampicin doses for shortening tuberculosis treatments.

Background As antibiotic resistance creates a significant global health threat, we need not only to accelerate the development of novel antibiotics but also to develop better treatment strategies using existing drugs to improve their efficacy and prevent the selection of further resistance. We require new tools to rationally design dosing regimens from data collected in early phases of antibiotic and dosing development. Mathematical models such as mechanistic pharmacodynamic drug-target binding explain mechanistic details of how the given drug concentration affects its targeted bacteria. However, there are no available tools in the literature that allow non-quantitative scientists to develop computational models to simulate antibiotic-target binding and its effects on bacteria. Results In this work, we have devised an extension of a mechanistic binding-kinetic model to incorporate clinical drug concentration data. Based on the extended model, we develop a novel and interactive web-based tool that allows non-quantitative scientists to create and visualize their own computational models of bacterial antibiotic target-binding based on their considered drugs and bacteria. We also demonstrate how Rifampicin affects bacterial populations of Tuberculosis bacteria using our vCOMBAT tool. Conclusions The vCOMBAT online tool is publicly available at https://combat-bacteria.org/.

The extracellular matrix molecule Tenascin-C (TNC) promotes cancer and chronic inflammation by multiple mechanisms. Recently, TNC was shown to promote an immune suppressive tumor microenvironment (TME) through binding soluble chemoattracting factors, thus retaining leukocytes in the stroma. TNC also binds to fibronectin (FN) and other molecules, raising the question of a potential common TNC binding mechanism. By sequence comparison of two TNC-interacting domains in FN, the fifth (FN5) and thirteenth (FN13) fibronectin type III domains we identified a MAtrix REgulating MOtif "MAREMO" or M-motif that is highly conserved amongst vertebrates. By sequence analysis, structural modeling and functional analysis we found also putative M-motifs in TNC itself. We showed by negative staining electron microscopic imaging that the M-motif in FN mediates interactions with FN as well as with TNC. We generated two M-motif mimetic peptides P5 and P13 resembling the M-motif in FN5 and FN13, respectively. By using structural information we modelled binding of these M-motif mimetics revealing a putative MAREMO binding site MBS in FN5 and TN3, respectively overlapping with the M-motif. We further demonstrated that the M-motif mimetic peptides blocked several functions of TNC, such as binding of TNC to FN, cell rounding on a mixed FN/TNC substratum, FN matrix expression and subsequent assembly, TNC-induced signaling and gene expression, TNC chemokine binding and dendritic cell retention, thus providing novel opportunities to inhibit TNC actions. Our results suggest that targeting the MAREMO/MBS interaction could be exploited for reducing inflammation and matrix functions in cancer and fibrosis.

The antiviral remdesivir has been approved by regulatory bodies such as EMA and FDA for the treatment of COVID-19. However, its efficacy is debated and toxicity concerns might limit the therapeutic range of this drug. Computational models that aid in balancing efficacy and toxicity would be of great help. Parametrizing models is difficult because the prodrug remdesivir is metabolized to its active form (RDV-TP) upon cell entry, which complicates dose-activity relationships.Here, we employ a computational model that allows predicting drug efficacy based on the binding affinity of RDV-TP for its target polymerase in SARS-CoV-2. We identify an optimal infusion rate to maximize remdesivir efficacy. We also assess drug efficacy in suppressing both wild-type and resistant strains, and thereby selection of resistance.Our results differ from predictions using prodrug dose-response curves (pseudo-EC50s). We expect that reaching 90% inhibition (EC90) is insufficient to suppress SARS-CoV-2 in lungs. While standard dosing mildly inhibits viral polymerase and therefore likely reduces morbidity, we also expect selection for resistant mutants for most realistic parameter ranges. To increase efficacy and safeguard against resistance, we recommend continuing remdesivir use with companion antivirals and/or with dosing regimens that substantially increase the levels of RDV-TP.

Microbial division rates determine the speed of mutation accumulation and thus the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. Microbial death rates are affected by antibiotic action and the immune system. Therefore, measuring these rates has advanced our understanding of host-pathogen interactions and antibiotic action. Several methods based on marker-loss or few inheritable neutral markers exist that allow estimating microbial division and death rates, each of which has advantages and limitations. Technical bottlenecks, i.e., experimental sampling events, during the experiment can distort the rate estimates and are typically unaccounted for or require additional calibration experiments. In this work, we introduce RESTAMP (Rate Estimates by Sequence Tag Analysis of Microbial Populations) as a method for determining bacterial division and death rates. This method uses hundreds of fitness neutral sequence barcodes to measure the rates and account for experimental bottlenecks at the same time. We experimentally validate RESTAMP and compare it to established plasmid loss methods. We find that RESTAMP has a number of advantages over plasmid loss or previous marker based techniques. (i) It enables to correct the distortion of rate estimates by technical bottlenecks. (ii) Rate estimates are independent of the sequence tag distribution in the starting culture allowing the use of an arbitrary number of tags. (iii) It introduces a bottleneck sensitivity measure that can be used to maximize the accuracy of the experiment. RESTAMP allows studying microbial population dynamics with great resolution over a wide dynamic range and can thus advance our understanding of host-pathogen interactions or the mechanisms of antibiotic action.

Adherence to treatment for tuberculosis (TB) has been a concern for many decades, resulting in the World Health Organization's recommendation of the direct observation of treatment in the 1990s. Recent advances in digital adherence technologies (DATs) have renewed discussion on how to best address nonadherence, as well as offering important information on dose-by-dose adherence patterns and their variability between countries and settings. Previous studies have largely focussed on percentage thresholds to delineate sufficient adherence, but this is misleading and limited, given the complex and dynamic nature of adherence over the treatment course. Instead, we apply a standardised taxonomy – as adopted by the international adherence community – to dose-by-dose medication-taking data, which divides missed doses into 1) late/noninitiation (starting treatment later than expected/not starting), 2) discontinuation (ending treatment early), and 3) suboptimal implementation (intermittent missed doses). Using this taxonomy, we can consider the implications of different forms of nonadherence for intervention and regimen design. For example, can treatment regimens be adapted to increase the “forgiveness” of common patterns of suboptimal implementation to protect against treatment failure and the development of drug resistance? Is it reasonable to treat all missed doses of treatment as equally problematic and equally common when deploying DATs? Can DAT data be used to indicate the patients that need enhanced levels of support during their treatment course? Critically, we pinpoint key areas where knowledge regarding treatment adherence is sparse and impeding scientific progress., Digital adherence technologies (DATs) provide a wealth of information on dose-by-dose anti-TB medication-taking. Studies of DAT data should place nonadherence in standardised taxonomic frameworks in order to best inform intervention and regimen design. https://bit.ly/3jq1D8a

Antibiotic resistance is rising and we urgently need to gain a better quantitative understanding of how antibiotics act, which in turn would also speed up the development of new antibiotics. Here, we describe a computational model (COMBAT-COmputational Model of Bacterial Antibiotic Target-binding) that can quantitatively predict antibiotic dose-response relationships. Our goal is dual: We address a fundamental biological question and investigate how drug-target binding shapes antibiotic action. We also create a tool that can predict antibiotic efficacy a priori. COMBAT requires measurable biochemical parameters of drug-target interaction and can be directly fitted to time-kill curves. As a proof-of-concept, we first investigate the utility of COMBAT with antibiotics belonging to the widely used quinolone class. COMBAT can predict antibiotic efficacy in clinical isolates for quinolones from drug affinity (R2>0.9). To further challenge our approach, we also do the reverse: estimate the magnitude of changes in drug-target binding based on antibiotic dose-response curves. We overexpress target molecules to infer changes in antibiotic-target binding from changes in antimicrobial efficacy of ciprofloxacin with 92–94% accuracy. To test the generality of our approach, we use the beta-lactam ampicillin to predict target molecule occupancy at MIC from antimicrobial action with 90% accuracy. Finally, we apply COMBAT to predict antibiotic concentrations that can select for resistance due to novel resistance mutations. Using ciprofloxacin and ampicillin as well defined test cases, our work demonstrates that drug-target binding is a major predictor of bacterial responses to antibiotics. This is surprising because antibiotic action involves many additional effects downstream of drug-target binding. In addition, COMBAT provides a framework to inform optimal antibiotic dose levels that maximize efficacy and minimize the rise of resistant mutants., Author summary Antibiotic efficacy is traditionally assessed with a single value, the minimal inhibitory concentration, despite its limited predictive power. Dose-response curves that assess efficacy over a range of antibiotic concentrations are promising, but extremely work intensive. Using the well-characterized antibiotics ciprofloxacin and ampicillin as proof-of-concept, we provide a mathematical framework that allows predicting optimal dosing of antibiotics based on drug-target binding parameters. These could be measured early in drug development and can also change when bacteria become resistant. Thus, we can predict the probability that resistant strains are selected at a given dosing regimen without isolating and testing a multitude of resistant strains. Predicting optimal dosing with early accessible experimental data can reduce the prevalent trial-and-error approaches and thereby the number of antibiotic candidates that fail late in drug development.

Antibiotic-resistant pathogens are a major public health threat. A deeper understanding of how an antibiotic’s mechanism of action influences the emergence of resistance would aid in the design of new drugs and help to preserve the effectiveness of existing ones. To this end, we developed a model that links bacterial population dynamics with antibiotic-target binding kinetics. Our approach allows us to derive mechanistic insights on drug activity from population-scale experimental data and to quantify the interplay between drug mechanism and resistance selection. We find that whether a drug acts as a bacteriostatic or bactericidal agent has little influence on resistance selection. We also show that heterogeneous drug-target binding within a population enables resistant bacteria to evolve fitness-improving secondary mutations even when drug doses remain above the resistant strain’s minimum inhibitory concentration. Our work suggests that antibiotic doses beyond this “secondary mutation selection window” could safeguard against the emergence of high-fitness resistant strains during treatment.

Beta-lactam- and in particular carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae represent a major public health threat. Despite strong variation of resistance across geographical settings, there is limited understanding of the underlying drivers. To assess these drivers, we developed a transmission model of cephalosporin- and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae. The model is parameterized using antibiotic consumption and demographic data from eleven European countries and fitted to the resistance rates for Klebsiella pneumoniae for these settings. The impact of potential drivers of resistance is then assessed in counterfactual analyses. Based on reported consumption data, the model could simultaneously fit the prevalence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (ESBL and CRK) across eleven European countries over eleven years. The fit could explain the large between-country variability of resistance in terms of consumption patterns and fitted differences in hospital transmission rates. Based on this fit, a counterfactual analysis found that reducing nosocomial transmission and antibiotic consumption in the hospital had the strongest impact on ESBL and CRK prevalence. Antibiotic consumption in the community also affected ESBL prevalence but its relative impact was weaker than inpatient consumption. Finally, we used the model to estimate a moderate fitness cost of CRK and ESBL at the population level. This work highlights the disproportionate role of antibiotic consumption in the hospital and of nosocomial transmission for resistance in gram-negative bacteria at a European level. This indicates that infection control and antibiotic stewardship measures should play a major role in limiting resistance even at the national or regional level., Author summary As beta-lactam resistant gram-negative bacteria represent one of the most critical threats in the ongoing antibiotic resistance crisis, it is crucial to identify the underlying drivers and develop appropriate measures to curb their spread. By combining a transmission model with epidemiological data at a European level, we can explain the strong differences of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumonia across European countries and their often-rapid temporal increase. We find that among potentially modifiable drivers, inpatient antibiotic consumption and nosocomial transmission rates have the strongest impact on resistance. This implies that measures aimed to improve the infection control and the antibiotic stewardship in hospitals are crucial for preventing antibiotic resistance in gram-negatives even beyond individual hospitals as they may affect resistance prevalence at the level of entire countries.

To understand how antibiotic use affects the risk of a resistant infection, we present a computational model of the population dynamics of gut microbiota including antibiotic resistance-conferring plasmids. We then describe how this model is parameterized based on published microbiota data. Finally, we investigate how treatment history affects the prevalence of resistance among opportunistic enterobacterial pathogens. We simulate treatment histories and identify which properties of prior antibiotic exposure are most influential in determining the prevalence of resistance. We find that resistance prevalence can be predicted by 3 properties, namely the total days of drug exposure, the duration of the drug-free period after last treatment, and the center of mass of the treatment pattern. Overall this work provides a framework for capturing the role of the microbiome in the selection of antibiotic resistance and highlights the role of treatment history for the prevalence of resistance.

Bacterial heteroresistance (i.e., the co-existence of several subpopulations with different antibiotic susceptibilities) can delay the clearance of bacteria even with long antibiotic exposure. Some proposed mechanisms have been successfully described with mathematical models of drug-target binding where the mechanism&rsquo, s downstream of drug-target binding are not explicitly modeled and subsumed in an empirical function, connecting target occupancy to antibiotic action. However, with current approaches it is difficult to model mechanisms that involve multi-step reactions that lead to bacterial killing. Here, we have a dual aim: first, to establish pharmacodynamic models that include multi-step reaction pathways, and second, to model heteroresistance and investigate which molecular heterogeneities can lead to delayed bacterial killing. We show that simulations based on Gillespie algorithms, which have been employed to model reaction kinetics for decades, can be useful tools to model antibiotic action via multi-step reactions. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of current models and Gillespie simulations. Finally, we show that in our models, slight normally distributed variances in the rates of any event leading to bacterial death can (depending on parameter choices) lead to delayed bacterial killing (i.e., heteroresistance). This means that a slowly declining residual bacterial population due to heteroresistance is most likely the default scenario and should be taken into account when planning treatment length.

Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 (EHEC) is an important food-borne pathogen that colonizes the colon. Transposon-insertion sequencing (TIS) was used to identify genes required for EHEC and E. coli K-12 growth in vitro and for EHEC growth in vivo in the infant rabbit colon. Surprisingly, many conserved loci contribute to EHEC’s but not to K-12’s growth in vitro. There was a restrictive bottleneck for EHEC colonization of the rabbit colon, which complicated identification of EHEC genes facilitating growth in vivo. Both a refined version of an existing analytic framework as well as PCA-based analysis were used to compensate for the effects of the infection bottleneck. These analyses confirmed that the EHEC LEE-encoded type III secretion apparatus is required for growth in vivo and revealed that only a few effectors are critical for in vivo fitness. Over 200 mutants not previously associated with EHEC survival/growth in vivo also appeared attenuated in vivo, and a subset of these putative in vivo fitness factors were validated. Some were found to contribute to efficient type-three secretion while others, including tatABC, oxyR, envC, acrAB, and cvpA, promote EHEC resistance to host-derived stresses. cvpA is also required for intestinal growth of several other enteric pathogens, and proved to be required for EHEC, Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio parahaemolyticus resistance to the bile salt deoxycholate, highlighting the important role of this previously uncharacterized protein in pathogen survival. Collectively, our findings provide a comprehensive framework for understanding EHEC growth in the intestine., Author summary Enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) is an important food-borne pathogen that infects the colon. We created a dense EHEC transposon library and used transposon-insertion sequencing to identify the genes required for EHEC growth in vitro and in vivo in the infant rabbit colon. We found that there is a large infection bottleneck in the rabbit model of intestinal colonization and refined two analytic approaches to facilitate rigorous identification of new EHEC genes that promote fitness in vivo. Besides the known type III secretion system, more than 200 additional genes were found to contribute to EHEC survival and/or growth within the intestine. The requirement for some of these new in vivo fitness factors was confirmed, and their contributions to infection were investigated. This set of genes should be of considerable value for future studies elucidating the processes that enable the pathogen to proliferate in vivo and for design of new therapeutics.

Treatment of infectious diseases is often long and requires patients to take drugs even after they have seemingly recovered. This is because of a phenomenon called persistence, which allows small fractions of the bacterial population to survive treatment despite being genetically susceptible. The surviving subpopulation is often below detection limit and therefore is empirically inaccessible but can cause treatment failure when treatment is terminated prematurely. Mathematical models could aid in predicting bacterial survival and thereby determine sufficient treatment length. However, the mechanisms of persistence are hotly debated, necessitating the development of multiple mechanistic models. Here we develop a generalized mathematical framework that can accommodate various persistence mechanisms from measurable heterogeneities in pathogen populations. It allows the estimation of the relative increase in treatment length necessary to eradicate persisters compared to the majority population. To simplify and generalize, we separate the model into two parts: the distribution of the molecular mechanism of persistence in the bacterial population (e.g. number of efflux pumps or target molecules, growth rates) and the elimination rate of single bacteria as a function of that phenotype. Thereby, we obtain an estimate of the required treatment length for each phenotypic subpopulation depending on its size and susceptibility., This study shows a generalized mathematical framework applicable for most persistence mechanisms that can be used to estimate treatment length in persistent infections.

Combatting antibiotic resistance will require both new antibiotics and strategies to preserve the effectiveness of existing drugs. Both approaches would benefit from predicting optimal dosing of antibiotics based on drug-target binding parameters that can be measured early in drug development and that can change when bacteria become resistant. This would avoid the currently frequently employed trial-and-error approaches and might reduce the number of antibiotic candidates that fail late in drug development.Here, we describe a computational model (COMBAT-COmputational Model of Bacterial Antibiotic Target-binding) that leverages accessible biochemical parameters to quantitatively predict antibiotic dose-response relationships. We validate our model with MICs of a range of quinolone antibiotics in clinical isolates demonstrating that antibiotic efficacy can be predicted from drug-target binding (R2 > 0.9). To further challenge our approach, we do not only predict antibiotic efficacy from biochemical parameters, but also do the reverse: estimate the magnitude of changes in drug-target binding based on antibiotic dose-response curves. We experimentally demonstrate that changes in drug-target binding can be predicted from antibiotic dose-response curves with 92-94 % accuracy by exposing bacteria overexpressing target molecules to ciprofloxacin. To test the generality of COMBAT, we apply it to a different antibiotic class, the beta-lactam ampicillin, and can again predict binding parameters from dose-response curves with 90 % accuracy. We then apply COMBAT to predict antibiotic concentrations that can select for resistance due to novel resistance mutations.Our goal here is dual: First, we address a fundamental biological question and demonstrate that drug-target binding determines bacterial response to antibiotics, although antibiotic action involves many additional effects downstream of drug-target binding. Second, we create a tool that can help accelerate drug development by predicting optimal dosing and preserve the efficacy of existing antibiotics by predicting optimal treatment for possible resistant mutants.

Source at https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1702077114. Supporting information at http://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1702077114/-/DCSupplemental Listeria monocytogenes is a common food-borne pathogen that can disseminate from the intestine and infect multiple organs. Here, we used sequence tag-based analysis of microbial populations (STAMP) to investigate L. monocytogenes population dynamics during infection. We created a genetically barcoded library of murinized L. monocytogenes and then used deep sequencing to track the pathogen’s dissemination routes and quantify its founding population (Nb) sizes in different organs. We found that the pathogen disseminates from the gastrointestinal tract to distal sites through multiple independent routes and that Nb sizes vary greatly among tissues, indicative of diverse host barriers to infection. Unexpectedly, comparative analyses of sequence tags revealed that fecally excreted organisms are largely derived from the very small number of L. monocytogenes cells that colonize the gallbladder. Immune depletion studies suggest that distinct innate immune cells restrict the pathogen’s capacity to establish replicative niches in the spleen and liver. Finally, studies in germ-free mice suggest that the microbiota plays a critical role in the development of the splenic, but not the hepatic, barriers that prevent L. monocytogenes from seeding these organs. Collectively, these observations illustrate the potency of the STAMP approach to decipher the impact of host factors on population dynamics of pathogens during infection.

Background Tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis continues to rely on sputum smear microscopy in many settings. We conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the percentage of children and adults with tuberculosis that are sputum smear positive. Methods We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health databases for studies that included both children and adults with all forms of active TB. The pooled percentages of children and adults with smear positive TB were estimated using the inverse variance heterogeneity model. This review was registered in the PROSPERO database under registration number CRD42015015331. Results We identified 20 studies meeting our inclusion criteria that reported smear positivity for a total of 18,316 children and 162,574 adults from 14 countries. The pooled percentage of paediatric TB cases that were sputum smear positive was 6.8 % (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 2.2–12.2 %), compared with 52.0 % (95 % CI 40.0–64.0 %) among adult cases. Eight studies reported data separately for children aged 0–4 and 5–14. The percentage of children aged 0–4 that were smear positive was 0.5 % (95 % CI 0.0–1.9 %), compared with 14.0 % (95 % CI 8.9–19.4 %) among children aged 5–14. Conclusions Children, especially those aged 0–4, are much less likely to be sputum smear positive than adults. National TB programs relying on sputum smear for diagnosis are at risk of under-diagnosing and underestimating the burden of TB in children. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1617-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is the most common cause of seafood-borne gastroenteritis worldwide and a blight on global aquaculture. This organism requires a horizontally acquired type III secretion system (T3SS2) to infect the small intestine, but knowledge of additional factors that underlie V. parahaemolyticus pathogenicity is limited. We used transposon-insertion sequencing to screen for genes that contribute to viability of V. parahaemolyticus in vitro and in the mammalian intestine. Our analysis enumerated and controlled for the host infection bottleneck, enabling robust assessment of genetic contributions to in vivo fitness. We identified genes that contribute to V. parahaemolyticus colonization of the intestine independent of known virulence mechanisms in addition to uncharacterized components of T3SS2. Our study revealed that toxR, an ancestral locus in Vibrio species, is required for V. parahaemolyticus fitness in vivo and for induction of T3SS2 gene expression. The regulatory mechanism by which V. parahaemolyticus ToxR activates expression of T3SS2 resembles Vibrio cholerae ToxR regulation of distinct virulence elements acquired via lateral gene transfer. Thus, disparate horizontally acquired virulence systems have been placed under the control of this ancestral transcription factor across independently evolved human pathogens.

Finding optimal dosing strategies for treating bacterial infections is extremely difficult, and improving therapy requires costly and time-intensive experiments. To date, an incomplete mechanistic understanding of drug effects has limited our ability to make accurate quantitative predictions of drug-mediated bacterial killing and impeded the rational design of antibiotic treatment strategies. Three poorly understood phenomena complicate predictions of antibiotic activity: post-antibiotic growth suppression, density-dependent antibiotic effects, and persister cell formation. We show that chemical binding kinetics alone are sufficient to explain these three phenomena, using single-cell data and time-kill curves of Escherichia coli and Vibrio cholerae exposed to a variety of antibiotics in combination with a theoretical model that links chemical reaction kinetics to bacterial population biology. Our model reproduces existing observations, has a high predictive power across different experimental setups ( R 2 = 0.86), and makes several testable predictions, which we verified in new experiments and by analyzing published data from a clinical trial on tuberculosis therapy. Although a variety of biological mechanisms have previously been invoked to explain post-antibiotic growth suppression, density-dependent antibiotic effects, and especially persister cell formation, our findings reveal that a simple model that considers only binding kinetics provides a parsimonious and unifying explanation for these three complex, phenotypically distinct behaviours. Current antibiotic and other chemotherapeutic regimens are often based on trial and error or expert opinion. Our “chemical reaction kinetics”–based approach may inform new strategies, which are based on rational design.

BACKGROUND The projected long-term prevalence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis depends upon the relative fitness of MDR Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains, compared with non-MDR strains. While many experimental models have tested the in vitro or in vivo fitness costs of various drug resistance mutations, fewer epidemiologic studies have attempted to validate these experimental findings. METHODS We performed a case-control study comparing drug resistance-associated mutations from MDR M. tuberculosis strains causing multiple cases in a household to matched MDR strains without evidence of secondary household cases. RESULTS Eighty-eight multiple-case and 88 single-case household MDR strains were analyzed for 10 specific drug resistance-associated polymorphisms previously associated with fitness effects. We found that the isoniazid-resistant katG Ser315Thr mutation occurred more than twice as frequently in multiple-case households than in single-case households (odds ratio [OR], 2.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-4.70), corroborating previous experimental findings. However, strains carrying both the katG Ser315Thr mutation and the rpsL Lys43Arg mutation were less likely to be found in multiple-case households (OR, 0.09; 95% CI, .01-.73), suggesting a negative epistatic interaction which contrasts previous findings. CONCLUSIONS The case-control design presents a useful approach for assessing in vivo fitness effects of drug resistance mutations.

We describe sequence tag-based analysis of microbial populations (STAMP) for characterization of pathogen population dynamics during infection. STAMP analyzes the frequency changes of genetically 'barcoded' organisms to quantify population bottlenecks and infer the founding population size. Analyses of intraintestinal Vibrio cholerae revealed infection-stage and region-specific host barriers to infection and showed unexpected V. cholerae migration counter to intestinal flow. STAMP provides a robust, widely applicable analytical framework for high-confidence characterization of in vivo microbial dissemination.

Combination therapy is rarely used to counter the evolution of resistance in bacterial infections. Expansion of the use of combination therapy requires knowledge of how drugs interact at inhibitory concentrations. More than 50 years ago, it was noted that, if bactericidal drugs are most potent with actively dividing cells, then the inhibition of growth induced by a bacteriostatic drug should result in an overall reduction of efficacy when the drug is used in combination with a bactericidal drug. Our goal here was to investigate this hypothesis systematically. We first constructed time-kill curves using five different antibiotics at clinically relevant concentrations, and we observed antagonism between bactericidal and bacteriostatic drugs. We extended our investigation by performing a screen of pairwise combinations of 21 different antibiotics at subinhibitory concentrations, and we found that strong antagonistic interactions were enriched significantly among combinations of bacteriostatic and bactericidal drugs. Finally, since our hypothesis relies on phenotypic effects produced by different drug classes, we recreated these experiments in a microfluidic device and performed time-lapse microscopy to directly observe and quantify the growth and division of individual cells with controlled antibiotic concentrations. While our single-cell observations supported the antagonism between bacteriostatic and bactericidal drugs, they revealed an unexpected variety of cellular responses to antagonistic drug combinations, suggesting that multiple mechanisms underlie the interactions.

The evolution of drug resistant bacteria is a severe public health problem, both in hospitals and in the community. Currently, some countries aim at concentrating highly specialized services in large hospitals in order to improve patient outcomes. Emergent resistant strains often originate in health care facilities, but it is unknown to what extent hospital size affects resistance evolution and the resulting spillover of hospital-associated pathogens to the community. We used two published datasets from the US and Ireland to investigate the effects of hospital size and controlled for several confounders such as antimicrobial usage, sampling frequency, mortality, disinfection and length of stay. The proportion of patients acquiring both sensitive and resistant infections in a hospital strongly correlated with hospital size. Moreover, we observe the same pattern for both the percentage of resistant infections and the increase of hospital-acquired infections over time. One interpretation of this pattern is that chance effects in small hospitals impede the spread of drug-resistance. To investigate to what extent the size distribution of hospitals can directly affect the prevalence of antibiotic resistance, we use a stochastic epidemiological model describing the spread of drug resistance in a hospital setting as well as the interaction between one or several hospitals and the community. We show that the level of drug resistance typically increases with population size: In small hospitals chance effects cause large fluctuations in pathogen population size or even extinctions, both of which impede the acquisition and spread of drug resistance. Finally, we show that indirect transmission via environmental reservoirs can reduce the effect of hospital size because the slow turnover in the environment can prevent extinction of resistant strains. This implies that reducing environmental transmission is especially important in small hospitals, because such a reduction not only reduces overall transmission but might also facilitate the extinction of resistant strains. Overall, our study shows that the distribution of hospital sizes is a crucial factor for the spread of drug resistance., Author Summary The increasing spread of bacteria, which are resistant to antibiotics, is a serious threat to clinical care. Currently, several countries aim at concentrating highly specialized services in large hospitals in order to improve patient outcomes. However, empirical studies have shown that resistance levels correlate with hospital size. To illustrate this correlation, we analyze two published datasets from the US and Ireland and controlled for antimicrobial usage, disinfection and length of stay. The proportion of patients acquiring both sensitive and resistant infections in hospitals strongly correlated with hospital size. Moreover, we observe the same pattern for both the percentage of resistant infections and the temporal increase of hospital-acquired infections. To investigate to what extent hospital size can directly affect the prevalence of antibiotic resistance, we use mathematical models describing the epidemic spread of resistance in hospitals and the community. We find that small hospitals typically lead to considerably lower resistance levels than large hospitals. However, this beneficial effect of small hospital size may be reduced if bacteria are transmitted indirectly via the environment. Therefore, reducing environmental transmission might be particularly important in small hospitals. Overall, our findings suggest that the short-term benefits of larger hospitals may come at the price of increasing resistance in the long term.

The emergence of resistant pathogens in response to selection pressure by drugs and their possible disappearance when drug use is discontinued are evolutionary processes common to many pathogens. Population biological models have been used to study the dynamics of resistance in viruses, bacteria, and eukaryotic microparasites both at the level of the individual treated host and of the treated host population. Despite the existence of generic features that underlie such evolutionary dynamics, different conclusions have been reached about the key factors affecting the rate of resistance evolution and how to best use drugs to minimise the risk of generating high levels of resistance. Improved understanding of generic versus specific population biological aspects will help to translate results between different studies, and allow development of a more rational basis for sustainable drug use than exists at present.

The evolution of resistance to antimicrobial chemotherapy is a major and growing cause of human mortality and morbidity. Comparatively little attention has been paid to how different patient treatment strategies shape the evolution of resistance. In particular, it is not clear whether treating individual patients aggressively with high drug dosages and long treatment durations, or moderately with low dosages and short durations can better prevent the evolution and spread of drug resistance. Here, we summarize the very limited available empirical evidence across different pathogens and provide a conceptual framework describing the information required to effectively manage drug pressure to minimize resistance evolution.

Many bacteria mediate important life-style decisions by varying levels of the second messenger c-di-GMP. Behavioral transitions result from the coordination of complex cellular processes such as motility, surface adherence or the production of virulence factors and toxins. While the regulatory mechanisms responsible for these processes have been elucidated in some cases, the global pleiotropic effects of c-di-GMP are poorly understood, primarily because c-di-GMP networks are inherently complex in most bacteria. Moreover, the quantitative relationships between cellular c-di-GMP levels and c-di-GMP dependent phenotypes are largely unknown. Here, we dissect the c-di-GMP network of Caulobacter crescentus to establish a global and quantitative view of c-di-GMP dependent processes in this organism. A genetic approach that gradually reduced the number of diguanylate cyclases identified novel c-di-GMP dependent cellular processes and unraveled c-di-GMP as an essential component of C. crescentus cell polarity and its bimodal life cycle. By varying cellular c-di-GMP concentrations, we determined dose response curves for individual c-di-GMP-dependent processes. Relating these values to c-di-GMP levels modeled for single cells progressing through the cell cycle sets a quantitative frame for the successive activation of c-di-GMP dependent processes during the C. crescentus life cycle. By reconstructing a simplified c-di-GMP network in a strain devoid of c-di-GMP we defined the minimal requirements for the oscillation of c-di-GMP levels during the C. crescentus cell cycle. Finally, we show that although all c-di-GMP dependent cellular processes were qualitatively restored by artificially adjusting c-di-GMP levels with a heterologous diguanylate cyclase, much higher levels of the second messenger are required under these conditions as compared to the contribution of homologous c-di-GMP metabolizing enzymes. These experiments suggest that a common c-di-GMP pool cannot fully explain spatiotemporal regulation by c-di-GMP in C. crescentus and that individual enzymes preferentially regulate specific phenotypes during the cell cycle., Author Summary Bacterial processes like virulence, motility or biofilm formation are governed by the second messenger c-di-GMP. In most bacteria, c-di-GMP is produced and degraded by a complex network comprising dozens of enzymes. This has hindered a comprehensive analysis of the cellular role of c-di-GMP. Here we mutate the entire c-di-GMP network in Caulobacter crescentus, a model organism with inherent cell polarity and bimodal life-cycle. We find that a c-di-GMP free strain (cdG0) shows severe developmental defects, a loss of cell polarity and defective cell division. By determining c-di-GMP dose-response curves for individual processes and relating these to c-di-GMP levels, which were modeled for single cells progressing through the cell cycle, we define a quantitative frame for the c-di-GMP dependent program during the C. crescentus life cycle. We then show that the defects of cdG0 can be largely rescued by restoring c-di-GMP levels with a single heterologous enzyme producing c-di-GMP. However, much higher levels of the second messenger are required under these conditions as compared to the contribution of homologous enzymes. Our data argue for specific regulatory fine-tuning of the enzymes mediating c-di-GMP oscillation during the cell cycle and provide evidence for both global as well as insulated c-di-GMP pools.