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BackgroundThere is a growing epidemic of chronic non-communicable diseases in low and middle-income countries, often attributed to urbanization, although there are limited data from marginalized rural populations. This study aimed to estimate prevalence of cardiometabolic diseases and associated risk factors in transitional rural communities.MethodsA cross-sectional study of Montubio adults aged 18-94 years living in agricultural communities in a tropical coastal region of Ecuador. Data were collected by questionnaires and anthropometry, and fasting blood was analyzed for glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, insulin, and lipid profiles. Population-weighted prevalences of diabetes, hypertension, and metabolic syndrome were estimated. Associations between potential risk factors and outcomes were estimated using multilevel regression techniques adjusted for age and sex.ResultsOut of 1,010 adults recruited, 931 were included in the analysis. Weighted prevalences were estimated for diabetes (20.4%, 95% CI 18.3-22.5%), hypertension (35.6%, 95% CI 29.0-42.1%), and metabolic syndrome (54.2%. 95% CI 47.0-61.5%) with higher prevalence observed in women. Hypertension prevalence increased with age while diabetes and metabolic syndrome peaked in the 6th and 7th decades of life, declining thereafter. Adiposity indicators were associated with diabetes, hypertension, and metabolic syndrome.ConclusionWe observed an unexpectedly high prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and metabolic syndrome in these marginalized agricultural communities. Transitional rural communities are increasingly vulnerable to the development of cardiometabolic risk factors and diseases. There is a need for targeted primary health strategies to reduce the burden of premature disability and death in these communities.

Stroke risk is currently estimated as part of the composite risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated if composite-CVD risk prediction tools QRISK3 and Pooled Cohort Equations-PCE, derived from middle-aged adults, are as good as stroke-specific Framingham Stroke Risk Profile-FSRP and QStroke for capturing the true risk of stroke in older adults. External validation for 10y stroke outcomes was performed in men (60-79y) of the British Regional Heart Study. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in separate validation samples (FSRP n = 3762, QStroke n = 3376, QRISK3 n = 2669 and PCE n = 3047) with/without adjustment for competing risks. Sensitivity/specificity were examined using observed and clinically recommended thresholds. Performance of FSRP, QStroke and QRISK3 was further compared head-to-head in 2441 men free of a range of CVD, including across age-groups. Observed 10y risk (/1000PY) ranged from 6.8 (hard strokes) to 11 (strokes/transient ischemic attacks). All tools discriminated weakly, C-indices 0.63–0.66. FSRP and QStroke overestimated risk at higher predicted probabilities. QRISK3 and PCE showed reasonable calibration overall with minor mis-estimations across the risk range. Performance worsened on adjusting for competing non-stroke deaths. However, in men without CVD, QRISK3 displayed relatively better calibration for stroke events, even after adjustment for competing deaths, including in oldest men. All tools displayed similar sensitivity (63–73 %) and specificity (52–54 %) using observed risks as cut-offs. When QRISK3 and PCE were evaluated using thresholds for CVD prevention, sensitivity for stroke events was 99 %, with false positive rate 97 % suggesting existing intervention thresholds may need to be re-examined to reflect age-related stroke burden.

Objectives Vitamin D deficiency is associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We examined the cross-sectional association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and lung function impairment and assessed whether vitamin D deficiency is related to long-term mortality in those with impaired lung function.Design Prospective studySetting General practices in the UK.Participants 3575 men aged 60–79 years with no prevalent heart failure.Outcome measures Airway obstruction and mortality. The Global Initiative on Obstructive Lung diseases (GOLD) spirometry criteria was used to define airway obstruction.Results During the follow-up period of 20 years, there were 2327 deaths (114 COPD deaths). Vitamin D deficiency was defined as serum 25(OH)D levels20 ng/mL. In cross-sectional analysis, vitamin D deficiency was more prevalent in those with moderate COPD (FEV/FVC 80%) or restrictive lung disease (FEV1/FVC >70% and FVC =20 ng/mL were 1.39 (1.10 to 1.75), 1.52 (1.17 to 1.98), 1.58 (1.17 to 2.14) and 1.39 (0.83 to 2.33) for those with no lung impairment, restrictive lung function, mild/moderate COPD and severe COPD, respectively.Conclusion Men with COPD were more likely to be vitamin D deficient than those with normal lung function. Vitamin D deficiency is associated with increased all-cause mortality in older men with no lung impairment as well as in those with restrictive or obstructive lung impairment.

Abstract Background We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9. Methods Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration. Results The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer’s disease – outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable. Conclusions Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate.

Abstract Background Born in Bradford (BiB) is a prospective multi-ethnic pregnancy and birth cohort study that was established to examine determinants of health and development during childhood and, subsequently, adult life in a deprived multi-ethnic population in the north of England. Between 2007 and 2010, the BiB cohort recruited 12,453 women who experienced 13,776 pregnancies and 13,858 births, along with 3353 of their partners. Forty five percent of the cohort are of Pakistani origin. Now that children are at primary school, the first full follow-up of the cohort is taking place. The aims of the follow-up are to investigate the determinants of children’s pre-pubertal health and development, including through understanding parents’ health and wellbeing, and to obtain data on exposures in childhood that might influence future health. Methods We are employing a multi-method approach across three data collection arms (community-based family visits, school based physical assessment, and whole classroom cognitive, motor function and wellbeing measures) to follow-up over 9000 BiB children aged 7–11 years and their families between 2017 and 2021. We are collecting detailed parent and child questionnaires, cognitive and sensorimotor assessments, blood pressure, anthropometry and blood samples from parents and children. Dual x-ray absorptiometry body scans, accelerometry and urine samples are collected on subsamples. Informed consent is collected for continued routine data linkage to health, social care and education records. A range of engagement activities are being used to raise the profile of BiB and to disseminate findings. Discussion Our multi-method approach to recruitment and assessment provides an efficient method of collecting rich data on all family members. Data collected will enhance BiB as a resource for the international research community to study the interplay between ethnicity, socioeconomic circumstances and biology in relation to cardiometabolic health, mental health, education, cognitive and sensorimotor development and wellbeing.

Aims: Taller stature has been associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). AF and heart failure (HF) often co-occur but the association between height and risk of HF in older adults has not been well studied. We have examined the association between height and incident AF and incident HF in older adults. Methods: Prospective study of 3346 men aged 60–79 years with no diagnosed HF, myocardial infarction or stroke at baseline (1998–2000) followed up for a mean period of 16 years, in whom there were 294 incident HF cases and 456 incident AF. Men were divided into 5 height groups: 183.0 cms based on the 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th centiles distribution of height. Results: CVD risk factors tended to decrease with increasing height but a positive association was seen between height and electrocardiographic QRS duration and incident AF. Both short stature (183.0 cm) was associated with significantly increased risk of HF in age-adjusted analysis compared to those in the second height quartile [HR (95 %CI) = 1.62 (1.15, 2.26) and 2.04 (1.23, 3.39) respectively]. In short men the increased risk remained after adjustment for adverse CVD risk factors; in tall men the association was largely associated with AF and QRS duration. Conclusion: Tall stature is associated with significantly increased risk of AF leading to increased risk of HF. Short stature was associated with increased HF risk which was not explained by known adverse CVD risk factors.

Abstract Background The relationship between long-term exposure to whole body or central obesity and cognitive function, as well as its potential determinants, remain controversial. In this study, we assessed (1) the potential impact of 30 years exposure to different patterns of whole body and central adiposity on cognitive function at 60–64 years, (2) whether trajectories of central adiposity can provide additional information on later cognitive function compared to trajectories of whole body adiposity, and (3) the influence of vascular phenotypes on these associations. Methods The study included 1249 participants from the prospective cohort MRC National Survey of Health and Development. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and vascular (carotid intima-media thickness, carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity) and cognitive function (memory, processing speed, reaction time) data, at 60–64 years, were used to assess the associations between different patterns of adult WC or BMI (from 36 years of age) and late midlife cognitive performance, as well as the proportion of this association explained by cardiovascular phenotypes. Results Longer exposure to elevated WC was related to lower memory performance (p

Abstract Background The PACE-UP trial demonstrated positive effects of a pedometer-based walking intervention on objective physical activity (PA) outcomes at three and 12 months in 45–75-year-old primary care patients, in postal and nurse-supported trial arms compared with controls. We explored associations between process evaluation measures and change in PA outcomes. Methods The MRC framework guided process evaluation. Three quantitative measures (nurse session attendance [dose delivered], PA diary completion [fidelity] and pedometer use [fidelity]) were selected as independent variables in multi-level models estimating intervention effectiveness on PA outcomes (changes in step-counts and time in moderate-to-vigorous PA [MVPA] levels in ≥ 10-min bouts). Results Dose: attending all three nurse sessions compared with 0–2 sessions was associated with an increase in steps/day at three and 12 months of 1197 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 627–1766) and 605 (95% CI = 74–1137), respectively; and MVPA in bouts (min/week) at three and 12 months by 74 (95% CI = 45–103) and 30 (95% CI = 3–57), respectively. Fidelity: postal and nurse groups showed strong positive associations of diary return with steps/day at three months: postal 1458 (95% CI = 854–2061), nurse 873 (95% CI = 190–1555). MVPA in bouts (min/week): postal 64 (95% CI = 33–94), nurse 50 (95% CI = 15–85). At 12 months, only the postal group effects remained statistically significant: steps/day 1114 (95% CI = 538–1689), MVPA 47 (95% CI = 18–75). Regular pedometer use in the postal group only was associated with higher three-month and 12-month steps/day: 1029 (95% CI = 383–1675) and 606 (95% CI = 22–1190), respectively, and with MVPA in bouts at three months: 40 (95% CI = 6–73). Conclusion Process evaluation measures demonstrated significant associations with PA outcomes at three and 12 months. We cannot infer causality, but the associations between the process measures and PA outcomes suggest that they were important in enabling the trial changes observed and should be considered core components of the PACE-UP nurse and postal interventions. We have shown the MRC framework to be a useful tool for process evaluation of intervention implementation. Trial registration ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN98538934 . Registered on 2 March 2012.

Abstract Background Failure to include socio-economically deprived or ethnic minority groups in physical activity (PA) trials may limit representativeness and could lead to implementation of interventions that then increase health inequalities. Randomised intervention trials often have low recruitment rates and rarely assess recruitment bias. A previous trial by the same team using similar methods recruited 30% of the eligible population but was in an affluent setting with few non-white residents and was limited to those over 60 years of age. Methods PACE-UP is a large, effective, population-based walking trial in inactive 45-75 year-olds that recruited through seven London general practices. Anonymised practice demographic data were available for all those invited, enabling investigation of inequalities in trial recruitment. Non-participants were invited to complete a questionnaire. Results From 10,927 postal invitations, 1150 (10.5%) completed baseline assessment. Participation rate ratios (95% CI), adjusted for age and gender as appropriate, were lower in men 0.59 (0.52, 0.67) than women, in those under 55 compared with those ≥65, 0.60 (0.51, 0.71), in the most deprived quintile compared with the least deprived 0.52 (0.39, 0.70) and in Asian individuals compared with whites 0.62 (0.50, 0.76). Black individuals were equally likely to participate as white individuals. Participation was also associated with having a co-morbidity or some degree of health limitation. The most common reasons for non-participation were considering themselves as being too active or lack of time. Conclusions Conducting the trial in this diverse setting reduced overall response, with lower response in socio-economically deprived and Asian sub-groups. Trials with greater reach are likely to be more expensive in terms of recruitment and gains in generalizability need to be balanced with greater costs. Differential uptake of successful trial interventions may increase inequalities in PA levels and should be monitored. Trial registration ISRCTN.com ISRCTN98538934 . Registered 2nd March 2012.

Background: Motivational interviewing (MI) enhanced with behaviour change techniques (BCTs) and deployed by health trainers targeting multiple risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) may be more effective than interventions targeting a single risk factor. Objectives: The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an enhanced lifestyle motivational interviewing intervention for patients at high risk of CVD in group settings versus individual settings and usual care (UC) in reducing weight and increasing physical activity (PA) were tested. Design: This was a three-arm, single-blind, parallel randomised controlled trial. Setting: A total of 135 general practices across all 12 South London Clinical Commissioning Groups were recruited. Participants: A total of 1742 participants aged 40–74 years with a ≥ 20.0% risk of a CVD event in the following 10 years were randomised. Interventions: The intervention was designed to integrate MI and cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT), delivered by trained healthy lifestyle facilitators in 10 sessions over 1 year, in group or individual format. The control group received UC. Randomisation: Simple randomisation was used with computer-generated randomisation blocks. In each block, 10 participants were randomised to the group, individual or UC arm in a 4 : 3 : 3 ratio. Researchers were blind to the allocation. Main outcome measures: The primary outcomes are change in weight (kg) from baseline and change in PA (average number of steps per day over 1 week) from baseline at the 24-month follow-up, with an interim follow-up at 12 months. An economic evaluation estimates the relative cost-effectiveness of each intervention. Secondary outcomes include changes in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and CVD risk score. Results: The mean age of participants was 69.75 years (standard deviation 4.11 years), 85.5% were male and 89.4% were white. At the 24-month follow-up, the group and individual intervention arms were not more effective than UC in increasing PA [mean 70.05 steps, 95% confidence interval (CI) –288 to 147.9 steps, and mean 7.24 steps, 95% CI –224.01 to 238.5 steps, respectively] or in reducing weight (mean –0.03 kg, 95% CI –0.49 to 0.44 kg, and mean –0.42 kg, 95% CI –0.93 to 0.09 kg, respectively). At the 12-month follow-up, the group and individual intervention arms were not more effective than UC in increasing PA (mean 131.1 steps, 95% CI –85.28 to 347.48 steps, and mean 210.22 steps, 95% CI –19.46 to 439.91 steps, respectively), but there were reductions in weight for the group and individual intervention arms compared with UC (mean –0.52 kg, 95% CI –0.90 to –0.13 kg, and mean –0.55 kg, 95% CI –0.95 to –0.14 kg, respectively). The group intervention arm was not more effective than the individual intervention arm in improving outcomes at either follow-up point. The group and individual interventions were not cost-effective. Conclusions: Enhanced MI, in group or individual formats, targeted at members of the general population with high CVD risk is not effective in reducing weight or increasing PA compared with UC. Future work should focus on ensuring objective evidence of high competency in BCTs, identifying those with modifiable factors for CVD risk and improving engagement of patients and primary care. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN84864870. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 69. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This research was part-funded by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King’s College London.

Background: Cord leptin and cord insulin concentrations may be important biomarkers of child adiposity and cardiovascular health, especially in populations with an increased long-term risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. We aimed to determine whether cord leptin and insulin are associated with adiposity and early cardiovascular health at age 4/5, and whether any associations differ between White British and Pakistani children. Methods: Using bi-ethnic cohort data from 6060 mother-offspring pairs (2717 (44.8%) White British, 3343 (55.2%) Pakistani), we examined associations of cord leptin and insulin with adiposity (BMI, skinfold thickness) and systolic and diastolic blood pressure at age 4/5. Results: Cord leptin and insulin were higher in Pakistani compared to White British children (7.4 ng/ml versus 6.7 ng/ml and 4.1 mU/L versus 3.63 mU/L, respectively). Associations with adiposity measurements were similar in both groups and close to the null value. For example, each 10 ng/ml higher cord leptin was associated with a difference in mean childhood BMI of 0.10 kg/m2 (95% CI 0.01, 0.19) in White British, 0.01 kg/m2 (95% CI -0.08, 0.10) in Pakistani and 0.04 kg/m2 (95% CI -0.02, 0.11) in both groups combined. Associations with systolic and diastolic blood pressure were also close to the null and consistent in both groups. Conclusions: We found no evidence that cord leptin or insulin were likely to be valuable biomarkers for predicting later adiposity and blood pressure in White British or Pakistani children. For now, other factors such as family history and social-economic status may be more useful markers of risk.

BackgroundData are lacking from physical activity (PA) trials with long-term follow-up of both objectively measured PA levels and robust health outcomes. Two primary care 12-week pedometer-based walking interventions in adults and older adults (PACE-UP and PACE-Lift) found sustained objectively measured PA increases at 3 and 4 years, respectively. We aimed to evaluate trial intervention effects on long-term health outcomes relevant to walking interventions, using routine primary care data.Methods and findingsRandomisation was from October 2012 to November 2013 for PACE-UP participants from seven general (family) practices and October 2011 to October 2012 for PACE-Lift participants from three practices. We downloaded primary care data, masked to intervention or control status, for 1,001 PACE-UP participants aged 45-75 years, 36% (361) male, and 296 PACE-Lift participants, aged 60-75 years, 46% (138) male, who gave written informed consent, for 4-year periods following randomisation. The following new events were counted for all participants, including those with preexisting diseases (apart from diabetes, for which existing cases were excluded): nonfatal cardiovascular, total cardiovascular (including fatal), incident diabetes, depression, fractures, and falls. Intervention effects on time to first event post-randomisation were modelled using Cox regression for all outcomes, except for falls, which used negative binomial regression to allow for multiple events, adjusting for age, sex, and study. Absolute risk reductions (ARRs) and numbers needed to treat (NNTs) were estimated. Data were downloaded for 1,297 (98%) of 1,321 trial participants. Event rates were low (ConclusionsRoutine primary care data used to assess long-term trial outcomes demonstrated significantly fewer new cardiovascular events and fractures in intervention participants at 4 years. No statistically significant differences between intervention and control groups were demonstrated for other events. Short-term primary care pedometer-based walking interventions can produce long-term health benefits and should be more widely used to help address the public health inactivity challenge.Trial registrationsPACE-UP isrctn.com ISRCTN98538934; PACE-Lift isrctn.com ISRCTN42122561.

Background: Both the Sphygmocor (S) and Vicorder (V) devices can be used for Pulse Wave Analysis (PWA) and Velocity (PWV). We investigated if there were differences in the associations between markers of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) and PWA and PWV variables as assessed by the two devices. Methods: 1,722 men (78.5 ± 4.7 yrs) from the British Regional Heart Study underwent PWA and PWV with the Sphygmocor and Vicorder devices. Carotid artery Intima-media Thickness (cIMT), NT-proBNP and Left Ventricle Hypertrophy (LVH) detected by ECG were also assessed. Multiple regression was used to investigate the associations between cIMT, NT-proBNP and LVH with each of the following measures, central Augmentation Pressure (cAP) Augmentation Index (cAIx) Blood Pressure (cBP) and carotid to femoral PWV. Results: Men with data obtained from both devices were included (PWA n = 1,373, PWV n = 1,122). Following adjustment for CVD risk factors, Sphygmocor cAP, cAIx and cBP were all positively associated with LVH (p < 0.05), the relationship between Sphygmocor PWV and LVH was negative (OR 0.87 95% CI 0.78–0.97). There were no associations between LVH and Vicorder variables. cAP measured by both devices and cAIx by Vicorder were predictors of NT-proBNP levels (ScAP Beta 0.097 p < 0.05, VcAP Beta 0.153 p < 0.001 & VcAIx Beta 0.129 p < 0.001). Vicorder cBP was the only predictor of cIMT (Beta 0.057 p < 0.05). Conclusion: The same measures from two devices were predictors of different indicators of CVD. Further exploration is needed to understand these differences, but device used needs to be taken into consideration when comparing findings of these variables with other published results.

Background We examined associations of objectively measured physical activity (PA) and sedentary time with cardiovascular disease biomarkers at age 60 to 64 years. This included investigation of sex differences and the extent to which associations may be mediated by adiposity. Methods and Results Participants were 795 men and 827 women aged 60 to 64 years from the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development. Combined heart rate and movement sensors worn for 5 consecutive days were used to derive overall PA energy expenditure, kJ/kg per day) and time spent sedentary (3 metabolic equivalent of tasks). Linear regression models were used to relate each PA parameter to inflammatory (C‐reactive protein, interleukin‐6), endothelial (tissue‐plasminogen activator, E‐selectin) and adipokine (leptin, adiponectin) markers extracted from fasting blood samples. Greater time in light PA and moderate‐to‐vigorous intensity PA and less sedentary time were associated with more favorable biomarker levels. For C‐reactive protein, interleukin‐6, and leptin, these differences were greater among women than men. For example, % differences (95% confidence intervals) in leptin for men and women per SD increases in sedentary time: 7.9 (2.7, 13.0) and 20.6 (15.3, 25.8); light intensity PA: −3.8 (−8.9, 12.7) and −17.7 (−23.1, −12.4), moderate‐to‐vigorous intensity PA: −12.9 (−17.9, −8.0) and −18.3 (−23.4, −13.1). Fat mass mediated a greater proportion of these associations in women than men. Conclusions Greater light PA and moderate‐to‐vigorous intensity PA and less sedentary time in early old age were associated with more favorable cardiovascular biomarker profiles. Fat mass partially mediated these associations but more strongly in women than men, which explained sex differences.

Background: Guidelines recommend walking to increase moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) for health benefits. Objectives: To assess the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of a pedometer-based walking intervention in inactive adults, delivered postally or through dedicated practice nurse physical activity (PA) consultations. Design: Parallel three-arm trial, cluster randomised by household. Setting: Seven London-based general practices. Participants: A total of 11,015 people without PA contraindications, aged 45–75 years, randomly selected from practices, were invited. A total of 6399 people were non-responders, and 548 people self-reporting achieving PA guidelines were excluded. A total of 1023 people from 922 households were randomised to usual care (n = 338), postal intervention (n = 339) or nurse support (n = 346). The recruitment rate was 10% (1023/10,467). A total of 956 participants (93%) provided outcome data. Interventions: Intervention groups received pedometers, 12-week walking programmes advising participants to gradually add ‘3000 steps in 30 minutes’ most days weekly and PA diaries. The nurse group was offered three dedicated PA consultations. Main outcome measures: The primary and main secondary outcomes were changes from baseline to 12 months in average daily step counts and time in MVPA (in ≥ 10-minute bouts), respectively, from 7-day accelerometry. Individual resource-use data informed the within-trial economic evaluation and the Markov model for simulating long-term cost-effectiveness. Qualitative evaluations assessed nurse and participant views. A 3-year follow-up was conducted. Results: Baseline average daily step count was 7479 [standard deviation (SD) 2671], average minutes per week in MVPA bouts was 94 minutes (SD 102 minutes) for those randomised. PA increased significantly at 12 months in both intervention groups compared with the control group, with no difference between interventions; additional steps per day were 642 steps [95% confidence interval (CI) 329 to 955 steps] for the postal group and 677 steps (95% CI 365 to 989 steps) for nurse support, and additional MVPA in bouts (minutes per week) was 33 minutes per week (95% CI 17 to 49 minutes per week) for the postal group and 35 minutes per week (95% CI 19 to 51 minutes per week) for nurse support. Intervention groups showed no increase in adverse events. Incremental cost per step was 19p and £3.61 per minute in a ≥ 10-minute MVPA bout for nurse support, whereas the postal group took more steps and cost less than the control group. The postal group had a 50% chance of being cost-effective at a £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold within 1 year and had both lower costs [–£11M (95% CI –£12M to –£10M) per 100,000 population] and more QALYs [759 QALYs gained (95% CI 400 to 1247 QALYs)] than the nurse support and control groups in the long term. Participants and nurses found the interventions acceptable and enjoyable. Three-year follow-up data showed persistent intervention effects (nurse support plus postal vs. control) on steps per day [648 steps (95% CI 272 to 1024 steps)] and MVPA bouts [26 minutes per week (95% CI 8 to 44 minutes per week)]. Limitations: The 10% recruitment level, with lower levels in Asian and socioeconomically deprived participants, limits the generalisability of the findings. Assessors were unmasked to the group. Conclusions: A primary care pedometer-based walking intervention in 45- to 75-year-olds increased 12-month step counts by around one-tenth, and time in MVPA bouts by around one-third, with similar effects for the nurse support and postal groups, and persistent 3-year effects. The postal intervention provides cost-effective, long-term quality-of-life benefits. A primary care pedometer intervention delivered by post could help address the public health physical inactivity challenge. Future work: Exploring different recruitment strategies to increase uptake. Integrating the Pedometer And Consultation Evaluation-UP (PACE-UP) trial with evolving PA monitoring technologies. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN98538934. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 37. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Background: Both the Sphygmocor (S) and Vicorder (V) devices can be used for pulse wave analysis (PWA). However, large studies comparing data from both devices are lacking. Methods: 1,722 men (78.5±4.7yrs) from the British Regional Heart Study underwent PWA with S and V devices. Brachial blood pressure (BP) was assessed by V and by Omron- HEM907 (S). Measures of central Augmentation Pressure (cAP) Augmentation Index (cAIx) and central (c) BP were compared. Results: Data were successfully obtained in 1,380 (80%) with S and 1,706 (99%) with V. 1,373 men had both S and V data. cAP and cAIx were higher in S than V (17±9 vs 13 ± 5 mmHg and 29±10 vs 21±6% respectively, both p < 0.001), and were significantly correlated (cAP r = 0.65 cAIx r = 0.48 p < 0.001), but with greater differences at higher values. Brachial BP readings were greater with V vs Omron (mean difference 1.1±9.7/3.7±6.3 mmHg). Mean cBP was higher in V than S (139±17 vs 131 ± 19 mmHg) and despite strong correlation between measures (0.87 p < 0.001), cBP was more likely to be greater with S than V cBP at higher cBPs. These differences between V + S remained directionally consistent even after adjustment for risk factors (with multiple regression analysis) and when S PWA results were recalculated using V BP in a subsample (n = 58). Conclusion: PWA evaluations were more frequently successful with using V than S in elderly men. Differences in cAP, cAIx and cBP found between devices were not due to differences in BP calibration values. Further research is needed to understand the causes and clinical implications of these differences

Although it is recognized that risks of cardiovascular diseases associated with heart failure develop over the life course, no studies have reported whether life course socioeconomic inequalities exist for heart failure risk. The Medical Research Council's National Survey of Health and Development was used to investigate associations between occupational socioeconomic position during childhood, early adulthood and middle age and measures of cardiac structure [left ventricular (LV) mass index and relative wall thickness (RWT)] and function [systolic: ejection fraction (EF) and midwall fractional shortening (mFS); diastolic: left atrial (LA) volume, E/A ratio and E/e' ratio)]. Different life course models were compared with a saturated model to ascertain the nature of the relationship between socioeconomic position across the life course and each cardiac marker. Findings showed that models where socioeconomic position accumulated over multiple time points in life provided the best fit for 3 of the 7 cardiac markers: childhood and early adulthood periods for the E/A ratio and E/e' ratio, and all three life periods for LV mass index. These associations were attenuated by adjustment for adiposity, but were little affected by adjustment for other established or novel cardio-metabolic risk factors. There was no evidence of a relationship between socioeconomic position at any time point and RWT, EF, mFS or LA volume index. In conclusion, socioeconomic position across multiple points of the lifecourse, particularly earlier in life, is an important determinant of some measures of LV structure and function. BMI may be an important mediator of these associations.

There is consistent evidence on the impact of health behaviours on risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in European populations. As South Asians in the UK have an excess risk of CVD and coronary heart disease (CHD) compared to Europeans, we investigated whether a similar association between combined health behaviours and risk of CVD and CHD among this high-risk group exists, and estimated the population impact.In a prospective cohort of 1090 Europeans and 1006 South Asians (40-69 y) without prevalent CVD at baseline (1988-1990), followed up for 21 years to 2011, there were 601 incident CVD events [Europeans n = 255; South Asians n = 346] of which 520 were CHD events [n = 207 and 313 respectively]. Participants scored between 0 to 4 points for a composite score including four baseline healthy behaviours (non-smoker, moderate alcohol intake, physically active, frequent fruit/vegetable intake). Adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for incident CHD in Europeans who had three, two, one, and zero compared to four health behaviours were 1.33 (0.78-2.29), 1.96 (1.15-3.33), 1.36 (0.74-2.48) and 2.45 (1.18-5.10), respectively, p-trend = 0.025. In South Asians, corresponding HRs were 2.88 (1.33-6.24), 2.28 (1.06-4.91), 3.36 (1.53-7.39) and 3.48 (1.38-8.81), p-trend = 0.022. The results were similar for incident CVD; Europeans HR 2.12 (1.14-3.94), p-trend = 0.014; South Asians HR 2.73 (1.20-6.21), p-trend = 0.018. The population attributable fraction in Europeans was 43% for CHD and 28% for CVD. In South Asians it was 63% and 51% respectively.Lack of adherence to four combined health behaviours was associated with 2 to 3-fold increased risk of incident CVD in Europeans and South Asians. A substantial population impact in the South Asian group indicates important potential for disease prevention in this high-risk group by adherence to healthy behaviours.

Substantial advances have been made in identifying common genetic variants influencing cardiometabolic traits and disease outcomes through genome wide association studies. Nevertheless, gaps in knowledge remain and new questions have arisen regarding the population relevance, mechanisms, and applications for healthcare. Using a new high-resolution custom single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array (Metabochip) incorporating dense coverage of genomic regions linked to cardiometabolic disease, the University College-London School-Edinburgh-Bristol (UCLEB) consortium of highly-phenotyped population-based prospective studies, aims to: (1) fine map functionally relevant SNPs; (2) precisely estimate individual absolute and population attributable risks based on individual SNPs and their combination; (3) investigate mechanisms leading to altered risk factor profiles and CVD events; and (4) use Mendelian randomisation to undertake studies of the causal role in CVD of a range of cardiovascular biomarkers to inform public health policy and help develop new preventative therapies.

BACKGROUND:South Asians and African Caribbeans experience more cardiometabolic disease than Europeans. Risk factors include visceral (VAT) and subcutaneous abdominal (SAT) adipose tissue, which vary with ethnicity and are difficult to quantify using anthropometry. OBJECTIVE:We developed and cross-validated ethnicity and gender-specific equations using anthropometrics to predict VAT and SAT. DESIGN:669 Europeans, 514 South Asians and 227 African Caribbeans (70 ± 7 years) underwent anthropometric measurement and abdominal CT scanning. South Asian and African Caribbean participants were first-generation migrants living in London. Prediction equations were derived for CT-measured VAT and SAT using stepwise regression, then cross-validated by comparing actual and predicted means. RESULTS:South Asians had more and African Caribbeans less VAT than Europeans. For basic VAT prediction equations (age and waist circumference), model fit was better in men (R(2) range 0.59-0.71) than women (range 0.35-0.59). Expanded equations (+ weight, height, hip and thigh circumference) improved fit for South Asian and African Caribbean women (R(2) 0.35 to 0.55, and 0.43 to 0.56 respectively). For basic SAT equations, R(2) was 0.69-0.77, and for expanded equations it was 0.72-0.86. Cross-validation showed differences between actual and estimated VAT of

BACKGROUND:To compare disability prevalence rates in the major ethnic groups in the UK and understand the risk factors contributing to differences identified. It was hypothesised that Indian Asian and African Caribbean people would experience higher rates of disability compared with Europeans. METHODS:Data was collected from 888 European, 636 Indian Asian and 265 African Caribbean men and women, aged 58-88 years at 20-year follow-up of community-based cohort study, based in West London. Disability was measured using a performance-based locomotor function test and self-reported questionnaires on functional limitation, and instrumental (IADL) and basic activities of daily living (ADL). RESULTS:The mean (SD) age of participants at follow-up was 69.6 (6.2) years. Compared with Europeans, Indian Asian people were significantly more likely to experience all of the disability outcomes than Europeans; this persisted after adjustment for socioeconomic, behavioural, adiposity and chronic disease risk factors measured at baseline (locomotor dysfunction: adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.20, 95% CI 1.56-3.11; functional limitation: OR 2.77, 2.01-3.81; IADL impairment: OR 3.12, 2.20-4.41; ADL impairment: OR 1.58, 1.11-2.24). In contrast, a modest excess risk of disability was observed in African Caribbeans, which was abolished after adjustment (e.g. locomotor dysfunction: OR 1.37, 0.90-1.91); indeed a reduced risk of ADL impairment appeared after multivariable adjustment (OR from 0.99, 0.68-1.45 to 0.59, 0.38-0.93), compared with Europeans. CONCLUSIONS:Substantially elevated risk of disability was observed among Indian Asian participants, unexplained by known factors. A greater understanding of determinants of disability and normative functional beliefs of healthy aging is required in this population to inform intervention efforts to prevent disability.

AIM:To compare survival and incident cardiovascular disease between normotensive, untreated hypertensive, treated and poorly-controlled hypertensive and treated and well-controlled hypertensive adults. METHODS AND RESULTS:Data from the British Regional Heart Study (men) and British Women's Heart and Health Study (women) were used (N = 6476). Blood pressure and treatment were assessed at baseline (1998-2001) when participants were aged 60-79 years and participants were followed up for a median of 8 years. Date and cause of death were obtained from death certificates and non-fatal cardiovascular disease events were obtained from repeat detailed medical record reviews. Of the whole cohort 52% of women and 49% of men had untreated hypertension and a further 22% and 18%, respectively, had poorly treated hypertension. Just 3% of women and 4% of men had treated and well controlled hypertension and 23% and 29%, respectively, were normotensive. Compared to normotensive individuals, incident cardiovascular disease (fatal and non-fatal) was increased in those with poorly-controlled hypertension (Hazard Ratio (HR): 1.88; 95%CI: 1.53, 2.30), those with untreated hypertension (HR 1.46; 95%CI 1.22, 1.75) and those who were well-controlled hypertension (HR 1.38; 95%CI 0.94, 2.03). Adjustment for baseline differences in mean blood pressure between the groups resulted in attenuation of the increased risk in the poorly-controlled (1.52 (1.18, 1.97) and untreated groups (1.21 (0.97, 1.52), but did not change the association in the well-controlled group. All-cause mortality was also increased in all three hypertension groups but estimates were imprecise with wide confidence intervals. CONCLUSIONS:Half of women and men aged 60-79 in Britain had untreated hypertension and only a very small proportion of those with diagnosed and treated hypertension were well controlled. Those with hypertension, irrespective of whether this was treated and controlled or not, were at greater risk of future cardiovascular disease than those who are normotensive.